Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee Inquiry Into Scotland's Energy Future

The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland's National Academy, is Scottish Charity No.
SC000470
Scottish Parliaments Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee Inquiry into Scotlands Energy Future 1. The Royal Society of Edinburgh (RSE) is pleased to respond to the Scottish Parliament Economy, Energy and Tourism Committees inquiry, Determining and delivering Scotlands energy future. The Committees inquiry is timely for Scotland given developments and issues arising at the UK, European and global political levels, particularly given the climate change imperative. It also represents an important opportunity for the Parliament to engage with the public on an issue of the highest priority. The Committee is already aware of the importance that the RSE has attached to energy issues and it has been a major component of the RSEs recent work, not least its wide-ranging Inquiry into Energy Issues for Scotland (2006) and follow-on activities. Given the similarity between the RSEs own inquiry and the remit of the Committees current inquiry we urge the Committee to fully consider this body of work. The following response draws upon this work and has been prepared by a number of expert Fellows of the RSE under the direction of the General Secretary, Professor Geoffrey Boulton. If the Committee wishes to discuss aspects of the response further, the RSE could arrange for a number of expert Fellows to be available for a meeting. 2. Although we are aware that electricity represents about one-fifth of the energy use in Scotland; at this point we would also like to draw the Committees attention to electricity generation statistics. When we met with members of the Committee earlier this year it was apparent that there is misunderstanding and sometimes misinformation in relation to the proportion of electricity delivered by Scottish generators, in particular the actual contribution in GWh delivered from renewable sources (especially sources of variable output such as wind) which must be considered in addition to the installed capacity for generation. In the light of the meeting the Committee indicated that it would be extremely useful if it could have access to robust data on generation. Professor Jim Macdonald FRSE and the Institute for Energy and Environment at the University of Strathclyde has collated such data on behalf of the Society. It is included as an appendix to this paper. Scottish Research, Demonstration and Development capability 3. In terms of determining and delivering Scotlands energy future, Scotland is endowed with major research and development capacity that spans the energy spectrum, particularly within its institutions. In the UK, the University of Strathclyde, judged in relation to the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and Carbon Trust research income it receives, is first in electricity transmission and distribution. The University of Edinburgh is first in ocean energy1. The Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage (SCCS)
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Scientific Network of Excellence in Energy; Scottish Science Advisory Committee; December 2006 1 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland's National Academy, is Scottish Charity No. SC000470
(located at the University of Edinburgh, Heriot-Watt University and the British Geological Survey) is first in geological storage of CO2. The University of St Andrews is second in energy storage. Petroleum Engineering at Heriot-Watt University is internationally pre-eminent in hydrocarbon exploitation. Also, The Sustainable Power Generation and Supply initiative (Supergen) research consortia in marine energy, in highly distributed power systems and in energy storage are each led by Scottish universities. Crucial to the pull-through of energy technology is the need for the research and development community to be close to leading development and demonstration facilities as well as energy sources. In Scotland such facilities include the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC), the PURE Energy Centre on Unst, the Scottish Enterprise Energy Technologies Centre, and the University of Edinburghs curved wave tank. Doosan Babcock at Renfrew is unique in the UK as an international research and test facility for cleaner coal combustion and CO2 capture. Furthermore, pull-through and commercialisation is being aided by the Intermediary Technology Institute (ITI) in Energy, which funds and manages early stage research and development programmes across the energy spectrum, including renewables, power networks and energy storage. The Energy Research Partnership (ERP) is a developing collaboration between all of Scotlands Universities engaged in energy research. Scottish Energy Strategy 4. In its Report of 2006 the RSE strongly recommended that there should be an energy strategy for Scotland, although this should be nested, for maximum impact and efficiency, within those aspects of energy responsibility shared between the UK and Scottish Governments, and bearing in mind that the European dimension is becoming increasingly important. The Scottish Government has substantial powers to determine energy strategy through its responsibility for promotion of renewable energy, encouragement of energy efficiency, and its powers to grant consent of new electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. However, an economically and technologically optimal strategy should ensure that a Scottish strategy takes maximum advantages of UK and European connectivity. Although many governmental policies have energy implications, there are limited explicit links between the many initiatives from different parts of the Scottish Government and no obvious integrated overall strategy. For example, current developments such as the Scottish Governments activities and proposed emissions targets on climate change and proposals for a Scottish Marine Bill have energy implications that need to be borne in mind within an overall energy policy. We remain of the view that a comprehensive and integrated strategy for energy is an urgent priority and should be developed soon. Such a strategy should guide Scottish Ministers in their decisions on energy. It should also re-assure the public and industry that decisions on all aspects of energy are contained within a clearly articulated framework, rather than in an ad hoc and uncoordinated manner, as has been perceived to be the case in the past. In its Report the RSE proposed the strategic aim of a secure, competitive, socially equitable and low carbon emissions supply of energy for Scotland, comprising policy objectives that embrace energy efficiency and energy savings, ensure energy
The Royal Society of Edinburgh
availability, and capitalise on the natural energy resources of Scotland in an economically viable and environmentally sensitive way. 5. To achieve this aim it should be recognised that over-emphasis on a concept of Scottish energy self-sufficiency or failure to utilise efficiencies of scale could be damaging to the Scottish energy system, to its achievement of emissions targets and to its economy. Our targets should be to minimise emissions and cost, and to maximise energy security, sustainability and the economic benefit we might gain through exploitation of our R&D capacity irrespective of the ultimate source of energy. The approach should encourage interdependency within the UK, European and global markets. Such an approach should bring technological benefits to Scotland, stimulate enterprise and deliver social and environmental gains. 6. In this context, the Scottish Parliament and Government as well as Scottish organisations operating in the energy domain have to be aware of developments at the European level as well as those within the UK that will influence energy policy. Some examples of developments at the European level include: liberalisation and regulatory reform of the energy markets; proposed environmental directives such as the EU Industrial Emissions Directive, National Emissions Ceiling Directive and the Revised Waste Framework Directive; and strategic initiatives such as Trans-European Energy Networks and FP7 etc. Reducing demand for energy and energy efficiency 7. A key strand of energy strategy must be reducing the demand for energy as well as a focus on energy efficiency. In its Report the RSE identified the need for an improvement in the efficient use of energy in reducing the use of fossil fuels in space and water heating, and in transport. Reductions in total energy demand, both in terms of demand reduction and improved efficiency, will produce proportional reductions in the overall energy required. Demand-side reduction is an incredibly important but complex area and effective crosscutting engagement and action across government departments is essential. This conclusion was also reached in a Scottish Executive Report of 20072. The possibilities for energy savings are enormous but the primary obstacle is behavioural change. Behaviour change requires a package of education, information and financial incentive measures. Whilst energy efficiency is important, and can be stimulated through regulation, the focus must be on demand reduction, bearing in mind that there is frequently a rebound effect in domestic usage. An example of this would be the driver who replaces a car with a fuel-efficient model, only to take advantage of its cheaper running costs to drive further and more often. Rebound effects in commercial usage are not inevitable if the objective is to reduce cost. Therefore, it is important that rebound effects are factored into policy assessments. 8. Most of this evidence is concerned with electricity supply. This is symptomatic of the history of energy policy in the UK, where the supply of heat is largely ignored. We consider that a much more detailed consideration
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Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Policies and Programmes; The Scottish Executive; March 2007 3 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
of heat supply, followed by innovation, is needed in Scotland (see 19 below). This could, for example, be 1) in the use of biofuels for heating in rural regions off the gas grid, 2) in the use of waste heat to supply local industries within 30km of existing large power plants, 3) the design of integrated district heating as part of the planning process during re-developments such as east Glasgow. All of these aspects are well established in Scandinavian countries. 9. The RSEs Report indicated that there are multiple energy efficiency schemes, with low take-up, and hence the need for more efficient administration and coordination. In this light we note and commend the recent Scottish Government announcement on the setting up of the Energy Savings Scotland advice network which will provide free advice on energy efficiency, sustainable transport and small scale renewables. In addition to this, we welcome the Scottish Governments continued commitment to publish an Action Plan for energy efficiency and microgeneration and urge the Committee to engage with the Scottish Government on this and ensure implementation of the Plan is forthcoming. Diversity and security of supply of energy sources 10. A diversity of energy sources is absolutely essential and this was a key recommendation of the RSEs Report. There is no silver bullet and all available sources and technologies will need to be considered as part of the energy mix, including renewables, clean technologies for fossil fuels and nuclear powered generation. One key question is the debate of electricity supply from fossil fuels, renewables, or nuclear sources. There is no requirement that all three sources are part of a Scottish mix, but choices to ignore, or de-emphasise, nuclear power means that fossil fuels must be rapidly decarbonised in Scotland, and that a large capacity of renewable generation has to be researched, encouraged, consented and connected at an electricity price competitive with the rest of the UK and EU. If nuclear energy is to be phased out, and if Scotland is to meet its emission targets, the provision of secure baseload in Scotland will depend upon the hypothesis that carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can be developed successfully and implemented in Scotland. We strongly emphasise that a diversity of supply is essential to achieve maximum security and flexibility. Partitioning of thinking with regard to technology options and choices should be avoided as there are interesting opportunities for making progress towards a much higher degree of sustainability. To prepare for the longer term, investment in the development of alternative sources and cleaner technologies is essential. 11. As part of this there would also need to be greater use of local energy sources which are capable of reducing costs, reducing environmental impact and increasing security of supply, and resilience to fuel supply shortages or centralised supply and distribution outages. There is considerable opportunity for distributed energy systems in many parts of Scotland to create semiautonomous networks. This could range from large-scale district heating or CHP in the major settlements to microgeneration facilities utilising renewable energy sources in the remoter areas of the mainland and on the islands. The statutory planning framework has not been effective in promoting the use of waste energy, or the development of district heating and CHP schemes. The
utilisation of substantial waste heat from industrial processes or from power generation should be stimulated. We commend the innovative initiatives in Lerwick and Wick and new technologies available for obtaining energy from domestic and other waste. 12. With the need for large-scale replacement of electricity generating plant in Scotland and the UK within the next ten years, decisions on the viable options are urgently needed. In its Report the RSE recommended that due to a lack of robust procedures for assessing energy technologies and a lack of objectivity in assessments that are undertaken that a common methodology should be developed to assess the relative merits of energy technologies. Factors such as state of technology, infrastructure requirements, security of supply, carbon benefit, environmental effects, cost to the consumer as well as full lifetime costs should be considered. Nuclear generation 13. Subject to agreement on implementing a satisfactory solution to the very longterm treatment of radioactive waste, the RSE strongly encourages the UK and Scottish Governments to keep open the nuclear generation of electricity option in the interests of diversity and security of supply, and suppression of greenhouse gases. Electricity generation from nuclear is a significant component of Scotlands electricity baseload supply portfolio and will remain so until 2023 when Torness is due to close. In addition, any decision to extend the life of existing nuclear plants should be made on the basis of safety and technical information. With regard to the UK Energy Bill, the UK Government has indicated that the companies should bear the cost of new nuclear, including disposal of the waste, and companies have reiterated that in any proposals they make, waste disposal and decommissioning will be taken into account. If, however, Scotland were to achieve greater devolution from the UK, or were to become independent, then it may become necessary to negotiate waste treatment and long term waste disposal in another part of the UK; or to develop an expensive and difficult parallel programme in Scotland. The Scottish Governments refusal to accept the CoRWM proposals for deep geological disposal of waste could prove very problematic if sustained. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) 14. The Committee will be aware of the crucial priority that the Scottish Government is attaching to CCS technology in Scotland. Given that the world will continue to derive energy from fossil fuels for the foreseeable future we welcome the Scottish Governments commitment to CCS technology and its decision to part fund a commercially-oriented study led by the University of Edinburgh to look at CO2 storage and Enhanced Oil Recovery options in and around Scotland. In addition, Scottish Power, with the SCCS at Edinburgh, is leading a large research programme to develop methods of storage site selection and appraisal for CO2 from coal plant. The announcement in 2007 by BP to cancel plans for its Peterhead hydrogen power scheme was an untimely blow as the scheme was a major opportunity in Scotland not only in terms of hydrogen development but also carbon sequestration and enhanced oil recovery. Consequently, there has not yet been a world demonstration of CCS technology on a power plant scale. The first pre-combustion coal and gas
plants are expected to be demonstrated during 2012/3 in California and Abu Dhabi. Post-combustion gas plant may be demonstrated in Norway during 2013. It is vital therefore that an energy strategy for baseload electricity capacity, must recognise the risk that CCS technology will not necessarily be available to minimise emissions from carbon-based fuels. If CCS remains a critical part of Scottish electricity supply strategy, then significant additional effort will be needed to promote its demonstration, and especially deployment, in Scotland at an early date, and to encourage the required major investment so that Scotland is amongst the worlds leaders in this. A back-up strategy needs to be maintained in case CCS proves unexpectedly expensive, slow to develop, publicly unacceptable or (in the worst case) fails to work at sufficient scale. 15. At the UK level the House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee recently reported on the prospects of CCS3. Its Report recognises the very large potential that CCS can play in emissions reductions but it also importantly stresses that progress to date has been slow and that it is not clear when, or indeed if, CCS will be technically and commercially available. A submission from the UK Energy Research Centre indicates that CCS is now commencing the early pre-commercial demonstration stages worldwide, with the objective of wide spread routine commercial deployment by 2020-2025. The Committee was rightly concerned about providing consent to new coalfired power stations without CCS technology being available, and also recommended that Government needed to set a deadline for the cessation of unabated coal-fired generation. It also stated that the EU-ETS carbon price might not be enough to incentivise the development and deployment of the technology and that further Government intervention will be required during the demonstration period. The current UK strategy is focused on a competition to demonstrate CCS on just part (400MW) of one coal plant by 2014. It is certain that one, or potentially three, of the four short-listed entrants could demonstrate their plant in Scotland, but none are guaranteed to win. A key world-class resource offered by Scotland is the proximity of well-known, high quality, and large, geological storage sites beneath the North Sea. This can offer economic growth potential to industries and additional exploitation of offshore hydrocarbon resources, of which over 90% are located in Scottish waters. A key blockage is the pricing of decarbonised electricity at a long term (15 yr) to enable developers to operate the demonstration plant without making a loss. Therefore there is scope for Scotland to investigate devolved or EU incentives to capture one or more of these demonstrations within or outside the UK competition. These may be price supported by ROCs, feed-in tariff, subsidy by recycling of EU-ETS auction income to the UK, or allocation of EU-Allowances to reward CO2 stored. Scotland has a real opportunity to be a world leader in the demonstration of CO2 capture and storage technologies, and also in the use of subsurface resources for storage on an EU size scale, and in the adaptation of offshore engineering and offshore geological and geophysical surveying. We therefore urge the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee and Scottish Ministers to collaborate with Scotlands significant research and industrial base in investigating and
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Carbon Capture and Storage; Environmental Audit Committee; Ninth Report of Session 2007-08; July 2008 6 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
determining the opportunities that Scotland could exploit in rapidly accelerating the development and demonstration of CCS technology. It is important that strategic research and development capacity continues to increase and is well-connected between university and industry. Renewable energy 16. The majority of the UKs natural resources in wind, hydro, marine and biomass energy are found in the north of the UK. This is illustrated by the fact that 50% of the UK renewable energy production is sourced from Scotland4. Renewable sources of energy are a key contributor to energy supply needs because they reduce whole life CO2 emissions from overall electricity production and also crucially, increase the diversity of fuel resources and hence security of supply. The Scottish Government has recently increased its challenging target for the proportion of Scotlands electricity to be generated from renewables from 40% to 50% by 2020. Furthermore, according to the DBERR consultation on the UK Renewable Energy Strategy, subject to planning permission, there is an expectation that a large proportion of onshore wind development will take place in Scotland. Consequently, there are significant prospects as well as challenges for Scotland in utilising its natural resources as components of the energy mix. It must be recognised that abundance of resource does not necessarily result in its utilisation as that resource must be harnessed efficiently and at a competitive cost. 17. The exploitation of renewable energy offers significant opportunities for economic growth from manufacture and export, as well as providing employment in site development, management and maintenance. At present there is a realistic prospect for Scotland to develop a leading marine renewables industry, but this will only flourish if the right environment, including maximising bureaucratic efficiency, is provided: a substantial domestic market, with stable trading conditions to encourage steady growth. Initial costs will be high and technical risk significant. Both will reduce over time as the industry matures. The experiences of wind power exploitation are relevant here. A sizeable public investment is required in the early stages, with financial returns beginning to emerge after perhaps ten years. In the case of wave technology, devices that have been developed and demonstrated are highly subsidised. The Pelamis project in Portugal is subject to a guaranteed price for its electricity for 15 years. 18. Basic research, e.g. into wave behaviour, needs to be enlarged, while development and implementation costs are mostly prohibitive. Uncertainty about real future costs, particularly the installation, operating and maintenance costs is a major problem. Turbine prices are increasing as global demand expands, reliability is uncertain and raw material prices are high. It is important that work take place to establish whether some of the above risks can be mitigated, by a regime of capital grants and adjustments to economic instruments.
The Energy Technologies Partnership, Expression of Interest in Support of the UK Energy Technologies Institute; February 2007
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19. With regard to the deployment of offshore wind, wave and tidal technology, ultimately, the gap between capital costs, expected operational costs and revenue still remains too large for substantial industrial commitment, without improvements in the ROC system. The ROCs regime is designed to be technology neutral and encourage diversity of electricity generation. However, undifferentiated ROCs will always lead to industry employing the lowest cost option. As a result, onshore wind turbines have become commercially viable, but this mechanism has not stimulated development of other renewable sources other than for local use. The RSE has commented on the ROCs regime in its Report of 2006 as well as in recent consultation responses5. 20. Much has been made of the potential of renewable supplies of energy for Scotland and the UK, but this has been unduly focussed on electricity with inadequate consideration of other higher energy-use sectors, particularly transport and heating. In Scotland, the Forum for Renewable Energy Development (FREDS) Renewable Heat Group has recently reported6 and identified recommendations for the key components of a Scottish renewable heat strategy, including the structure of the market, technologies review and mechanisms for supporting renewable heat. We recommend that the Committee carefully consider the findings of the Report with a view to bringing forward the renewable heat strategy. Planning 21. The planning system, public consultation and the democratic process generally, specifically in relation to onshore wind farms, form the greatest barriers to increased deployment of renewables. The locations of renewable energy devices, and in particular onshore wind turbine installations, are controversial because of their impact. We are particularly concerned that decisions on the location of renewable energy facilities are taken on an ad hoc basis using the town and country planning system which was not designed for this purpose. We strongly support the recommendation of the RSE Energy Inquiry on the need for a locational strategy for renewable energy and this argument is strengthened by the proposals from DBERR in relation to onshore wind in Scotland. There are signs that this position may change with the advent of the draft National Planning Framework but many applications have been through a planning system which was not designed to cope with the volume of applications and has not been updated to allow effective representation by objectors or speedier decision making which is in the interests of all parties. A strategy for the location of renewable energy installations is still urgently needed within the framework of a comprehensive energy strategy for Scotland. 22. Furthermore, in terms of developments impinging on communities, natural heritage and the environment, perhaps some form of compensation or
Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into The Economics of Renewable Energy; June 2008; Scottish Government preliminary consultation on the Introduction of Banding to the Renewables Obligation (Scotland); July 2008 6 Renewable Heat Group Report (FREDS) 2008; "Scotland's Renewable Heat Strategy: Recommendations to Scottish Ministers"
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reparation payment could be developed to ensure that the impact is kept to a minimum and those directly affected can derive direct benefit. As examples, the Shetland Islands receive income from the North Sea oil revenues that has contributed to an improved economic state and infrastructure, and in Denmark, local attitudes to onshore wind installations softened substantially when electricity costs were reduced to hosting communities. Transmission infrastructure 23. Grid access, connections and transmission infrastructure, and the technical difficulties in maintaining quality of supply in remote areas, are very prominent barriers to realising Scotlands renewable potential. Wherever and by whatever means electricity is generated, it must be delivered to the market. The greater the diversity and distribution of generating plant the greater the need for investment in grid development and increased in-grid management costs. The significant sources of renewable energy tend to be remote from major demand centres and grid access points, thus requiring heavy investment in EHV grid extensions and consequential delays to connection. In terms of the GB Queue which mainly exists in Scotland, there are approximately 9.3 GW of wind energy applications awaiting connection7. Ofgem and DBERR have recently completed their Transmission Access Review8. We hope that the Review results in better access and operation arrangements in practice and provides greater certainty and incentivisation to all those involved. Ofgem and the industry need to take this work forward. New technology and adaptation will be required for multi-directional flows of power in HV distribution systems where renewables are closer to load centres. 24. The two large Grid infrastructure projects with major implications for Scotland are the proposed transmission line upgrade between Beauly and Denny, and the North-South transmission system upgrade. Currently the flow from Scotland to England is limited to 2.2 GW. Offshore transmission routes should also be considered. It is crucial that decisions for investment in the grid infrastructure are made timeously by the industry, regulators and Scottish Ministers to lead the connection of renewable generation technologies and ensure coordination of construction activities to avoid stranded assets. Without major changes to the Grid system renewable energy will be unable to make the contribution necessary to meet Scotlands long-term aspirations. There is also an issue of the flow from England to Scotland, which has an even lower limit. One backup strategy for no nuclear, or no CCS, could be to increase the England to Scotland capacity, so that there is an option to purchase electricity from England or the EU, if Scotland has temporary outages at peak load, or if Scotland fails to develop adequate baseload. Storage 25. Major research, development and demonstration in energy storage technologies is needed to meet the needs of increasing intermittent renewables in the system and to balance supply and demand. Pumped storage hydroelectricity is the only proven large scale energy storage mechanism and
Renewable electricity generation technologies; Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee; Fifth Report of Session 2007-08; June 2008 8 Transmission Access Review Final Report; Ofgem & DBERR; June 2008 9 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
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has been operating for decades. Pumped storage offers a crucial back-up facility at periods of high demand due to its flexibility and could be used to store power from intermittent generators at periods of low demand. If renewable electricity from wind, wave and tidal power continues to develop, there is the possibility of large over production at off-peak periods. This must either be stored, sold or dumped. These effects do not seem to have been fully evaluated. There is scope for integration into the overall supply strategy for example cheap off-peak electric heating for fuel-poverty households, or recharge of batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles to displace transport emissions. 26. Electrochemical technologies provide some of the most practical solutions. For larger scales, redox flow fuel cells have particular potential and are being developed by Plurion in Scotland with support from ITI Energy. For smaller stationary applications and mobile applications in particular, modern battery technology, based on either lithium or on nickel-metal-hydride is being considered. There is considerable expertise in this field in Scotland in St Andrews University. Transport 27. Twenty-eight percent of energy demand in Scotland is from the transport sector with road and air transport dominant. Transport fuel is primarily oil based and in its Report of 2006 the RSE indicated that most commentators consider that oil-based resources will remain the main fuel source for the next 25 years, with gradual market penetration of biofuels, hybrid engines, and hydrogen. The transport sector also produces the largest emissions of greenhouse gases after energy supply and land use; for the UK as a whole this is about 20% of total emissions. Any energy strategy for the transport sector should, therefore, focus primarily on the reduction in carbon and other greenhouse gases, and in higher fuel efficiency; these two components should go hand-in-hand. In its Report the RSE considered that a range of incentives and restrictions are needed to stimulate the market for hybrid engines, technologies to capture energy from otherwise wasted sources such as braking, incentives for higher car occupancy, and measures to reduce speed in order to reduce consumption. In terms of public transport, there is also a need for more flexible fleets capable of adjusting to variable levels of passenger use, especially at off-peak periods. We recognise it will take time for new vehicles and new fuels to become commonplace and the need for joint working with the motor industry and other relevant stakeholders. 28. There is potential in hydrogen as an energy vector for transport applications in the longer term provided that it is produced from low carbon emissions sources. Widespread applications of hydrogen technology require major investment in production, transport and storage infrastructure, and stimulation of demand. More medium term use of hydrogen for transport includes using it in a normal combustion engine. Public transport is particularly amenable to hydrogen fuel cell implementation as there is much less need for a distribution network and storage in buses is easier to implement. The major European HyFLEET:CUTE9 project involves the operation of hydrogen fuel cell
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http://www.global-hydrogen-bus-platform.com/Home 10 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
powered buses as well as hydrogen powered internal combustion engine buses in cities around the world and also focuses on the development and testing of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Also, despite its relatively small scale, the PURE Energy Centre on Unst is involved in the research and development of hydrogen technologies, and has utilised wind power to extract hydrogen from sea water and use it in conjunction with a fuel cell. However, the problem of hydrogen storage is the primary issue and work on identifying hydrogen storage materials continues worldwide, including here in Scotland. The Hydrogen Energy Group established by FREDS reported10 on opportunities for Scotland in this area. We recommend that the Committee should look to build upon current capabilities and stimulate further development in Scotland. 29. In terms of the potential from biofuel, current biofuel (biodiesel, bioethanol) production is proven technology and therefore provides a basis for production of non-fossil transport fuels. The Royal Society of London recently published a comprehensive report11 on the science and technology prospects of delivering efficient biofuels for transport in the broader context of environmental protection and sustainability. That Report shows that biofuels are potentially an important part of the future although the existing policy frameworks and targets may not result in greenhouse gas reductions and wider environmental and social benefits. It is a very complex picture as different biofuels have widely different environmental, social and economic impacts. Whole cycle analysis is required for the different biofuels to assist in determining these impacts. Future biofuels are likely to be produced from a much broader range of feedstocks, including agricultural by-products and domestic vegetable waste. Advances in the conversion process will improve the efficiency of producing biofuels. We urge the Committee to consider the Royal Society of Londons Report. Skills development needed 30. A major hindrance and threat to the development and commercialisation of energy technologies in the UK is the lack of technically-skilled people. There is a deficit below requirements in those studying and graduating in engineering as they once did. This is equally true for energy engineering, and must be addressed if Scotland is to determine and deliver its energy future. As part of this, the government must investigate the skills crisis and introduce initiatives to act as a catalyst to introduce new students to energy-related discipline areas. The Innovation, Universities, Science and Skills Committee has been undertaking a wide-ranging inquiry into engineering and the findings are eagerly awaited. In Scotland, some effort has also been made by the Scottish Enterprise, High Technology Talent Strategy Board. The governments Knowledge Transfer Partnership programme is a most effective enabler for knowledge transfer and a flagship programme could usefully be established in the area of new and renewable energy systems. Such an initiative would both bridge the industry/academia gap and help with the training of new graduates.
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Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Opportunities for Scotland; Hydrogen Energy Group (FREDS); 2006 Sustainable Biofuels: Prospects and Challenges; January 2008 11 The Royal Society of Edinburgh
Conclusion 31. As outlined above, there is a great deal of research, engineering, development and industrial capability presence in Scotland which is already contributing to the future delivery of energy in Scotland and the Committee must ensure that this remains the case. We remain of the view that a Scottish energy strategy that recognises interdependency within the UK, European and global energy markets should be developed as a matter of urgency. Reducing demand for energy and increasing energy efficiency should be a strategic priority and the Committee should press the Scottish Government to publish its Action Plan for energy efficiency and microgeneration. We feel that the need for a diversity of energy sources cannot be overstated and all viable sources and technologies will need to be considered as part of the mix. It could be argued that Scotland currently has a high-risk approach to energy generation as it depends upon assumptions about the rapid growth and low cost of renewable generation and the successful and cheap tractability of carbon capture and storage as a means of continuing to use fossil fuels as the reliable core of energy generation whilst decreasing its emissions. As insurance against possible failure, up-grading of the transmission link with England should be considered. If the current, implicit approach proves fallible, it has the potential to place severe curbs on economic and non-economic growth and competitiveness. Increasing energy costs could, however, be offset if the distinctive component of the Scottish energy strategy, its stress on the potential for innovation and economic benefit in a changing global energy regime, could be stimulated through the development and introduction of novel technologies. Additional Information and References This submission represents the views of an expert Working Group of RSE Fellows, and not necessarily the views of all of the Fellowship. In responding to this consultation the Society would like to draw attention to the following Royal Society of Edinburgh responses which are of relevance to this subject: The Royal Society of Edinburghs Inquiry into Energy Issues for Scotland (June 2006) The Royal Society of Edinburghs Energy for Scotland: A Call for Action (May 2007) The Royal Society of Edinburghs submission to the Select Committee on Science and Technology Inquiry into Renewable Energy-Generation Technologies (July 2007) The Royal Society of Edinburghs submission to the Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into The Economics of Renewable Energy (June 2008) The Royal Society of Edinburghs submission to the Scottish Government Introduction of Banding to the Renewables Obligation (Scotland) Preliminary Consultation (July 2008)
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Any enquiries about this submission and others should be addressed to the RSEs Consultations Officer, Mr William Hardie (email: evidenceadvice@royalsoced.org.uk). Responses are published on the RSE website (www.royalsoced.org.uk). August 2008
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Follow-up to the RSE presentation to the Scottish Parliaments Economy, Energy and Tourism Committees Energy Inquiry: Electricity Generation Statistics 2002-06
1. The RSEs Energy Group that presented to the Committee on 5th March 2008 agreed that they would provide the Committee with a time-series of energy delivered to the electricity grid in Scotland, concentrating on the contribution of renewable sources. Professor Jim McDonald FRSE and his group at the University of Strathclydes Institute for Energy and Environment have kindly undertaken this task. Their report follows below. 2. The readily available statistics cover the years 2002-2006. The 2007 figures are not yet available. The tables for each year show the contributions of the major generation technologies and the contribution of individual technologies to total renewable generation. 3. Trends renewables. The reduction in nuclear generation from 38% of the total in 2005 to 26% in 2006 (fluctuation due to planned and unplanned outages at Scottish nuclear plants) was compensated for by an increase in coal generation from 25% in 2005 to 33% in 2006, with a concomitant increase in carbon emissions. Apart from these fluctuations, the overall pattern of generation has shown little systematic change. The contribution from renewables remains small notwithstanding the growth of onshore wind generation. 4. The group strongly advocates that the Committee should recommend the creation of an independent, authoritative audit body responsible for collecting and publishing reliable energy statistics. At the moment there are considerable uncertainties and gaps in the available data that need to be resolved if public policy is to be well-informed and if progress towards agreed targets is to be monitored and adjusted. It is important that we agree about the facts and then debate what should be done, rather than arguing about the facts. The Royal Society of Edinburgh would be happy to comment further on the establishment of such a body if required. 5. As climate policy is a key driver for energy policy, the RSE argued, in its response to the consultation on the Scottish Climate Change Bill, for an independent, rigorous auditing of greenhouse gas emissions. We suggest that the two audit functions, of energy and emissions, should be well-integrated, preferably by the same body. A copy of the Societys response to the consultation on a Scottish Climate Change Bill, which addresses the energy/emissions issue and the auditing of emissions, can be found at: http://www.royalsoced.org.uk/govt_responses/2008_files.htm Geoffrey Boulton General Secretary 1 May 2008
The Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotlands National Academy, is Scottish Charity No. SC000470
Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid - 2002-2006

Robert A. F. Currie, Iain D. Broadfoot, Graham W. Ault, James R. McDonald Institute for Energy and Environment University of Strathclyde
Introduction This paper presents statistics about the deployment and performance of Scottish-based gridconnected generation from 2002 to 2006. It is derived from publicly available data and 1 information, much of which has come directly from Scottish Government Statistics , the Digest 2 of United Kingdom Energy Statistics (DUKES) and Renewables Obligation Annual Reports3 published by Ofgem. The Renewables Obligation Annual Reports are published for each financial year, but the data refers to the calendar year beginning three months prior to the financial year. Statistics are given for the installed capacity (MW) and electrical energy production (GWh) of major power producers and renewable generators. It should be noted that the categories that are accredited for the Renewables Obligation have changed between 2002 and 2006. Different sources also report different levels of installed renewable capacity over the period, mainly due to the different degrees to which connected, consented and under-construction renewable generators are recognised. Reporting variations and the application of differing terminology means it is not possible to determine how accurate the figures published by the Scottish Executive are for the contribution of renewable generators to the total electrical energy generated in Scotland. The statistics The paper presents publicly available statistics designed to present as accurate as currently possible the changes in the provision of energy to the grid in Scotland between 2002 and 2006. (It should be noted that some values are rounded, which explains why total figures do not always match). The data suffers from the following drawbacks: The actual total operational capacity of each category of generation in each annual period cannot be confirmed. DUKES provide data on the capacity of major power producers in Scotland but do not provide a comprehensive breakdown of the generation capacity connected to the distribution network. The category of Declared Net Capability (DNC) is used to present the connected capacity of major power producers in Scotland from 2002-2005 and Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) for 2006. The use of differing terminology is a source of uncertainty in the statistics. Further explanation of terminology can be found on National Grids website4. Hydro-Electric power stations are the only renewable generator listed in the DUKES statistics for installed capacity of major power producers. The DUKES statistics presented for installed capacity of major power producers in Scotland do not provide the installed capacity of renewable energy based generators. It is to be expected that the renewable generation that does exist will be ROC accredited. ROC Annual Reports have been used to determine the installed capacity and performance of Scottish-based renewable generation.
1 2
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/index.html 3 http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Pages/RenewablObl.aspx 4 http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/sys_06/default.asp?action=mnch3_22.htm&Node=SYS&Snode=3_22&Exp=Y
Discussion Paper: Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid 2002-2006, July 2008
Natural flow hydro electric generators are only ROC accredited if under 20MW capacity (Declared Net Capacity). Systems with greater capacity than 20MW are not thought to need subsidy. Unless the operational capacity of each natural flow hydro station below and above 20MW is known it will not be possible either to determine the % of electricity generated by Hydro or other renewable energy sources. The correct method of defining the operational capacity of each category of generation must be identified. Arrangements for meeting peak demand in Scotland have not been determined. The following section shows, for each year between 2002 and 2006, the installed capacity and the contribution to the grid from all sources, with a breakdown between different renewable sources. The paper then presents the outcome of submitted proposals for wind farms between 2004 and 2007.
2002 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE SCOTTISH ELECTRICITY GENERATION PORTFOLIO
Table 1: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2002 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,069 53.55 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.78 Gas turbine and oil engines 83 0.877 Hydro Natural Flow 1,173 12.39 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.4 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 2: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2002 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 15828 31.88 Coal 14833 29.87 Gas 11034 22.22 Oil 2210 4.45 Hydro Pumped Storage 622 1.25 Hydro Natural Flow 4455 8.97 Other Renewables 672 1.35 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology
THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Generator Technology Table 3: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2002 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.5 33.27 3 Co-firing 14.16 44.75 4 Hydro <20MW 160.6 365.38 36 Landfill Gas 20.89 96.53 10 Micro Hydro 9.91 39.77 4 Onshore Wind 192.89 430.44 43 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/9648-4405.pdf

Table 4: Declared Net Capability of major power producers in Scotland, 2003 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,070 53.37 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,440 25.68 Gas turbine and oil engines 150 1.58 Hydro Natural Flow 1,140 12 Hydro Pumped Storage 700 7.37 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 5: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2003 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 18934 37.16 Coal 14566 29.43 Gas 10025 20.25 Oil 2034 4.11 Hydro Pumped Storage 670 1.35 Hydro Natural Flow 2989 6.04 Other Renewables 823 1.66 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

Generator Technology Table 6: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2003 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.67 13.91 1 Co-firing 14.16 74.794 4 Hydro <20MW 160.6 1129.317 58 Landfill Gas 20.89 127.57 7 Micro Hydro 9.91 33.09 2 Onshore Wind 192.89 552.23 29 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/9648-4405.pdf


Generator Technology Table 9: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2004 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated Biomass 12.68 54 2 Co-firing 34.56 76 2 Hydro <20MW 439.03 1772 57 Landfill Gas 44.31 221 7 Micro Hydro 12.3 44 1 Onshore Wind 504.2 933 30 PV 0.001 00 0 Sewage gas 1 0 0 Wave 0.75 0 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/14345-ROannualreport.pdf


Generator Technology Table 12: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2005 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated ACT 0.34 0 0 Biomass 12.98 49 1 Co-firing 157.88 158 4 Hydro <20MW 484.58 1754 48 Landfill Gas 50.715 280 8 Micro Hydro 12.52 43 1 Onshore Wind 912.505 1340 37 PV 0.02 0 0 Sewage gas 1 3 0 Wave 0.75 0 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/14345-ROannualreport.pdf

Table 13: Transmission Entry Capacity of major power producers in Scotland, 2006 Generator Technology MW Capacity % of total MW connected Conventional steam and combined 5,119 52.83 cycle gas turbine stations Nuclear 2,410 24.87 Gas turbine and oil engines 263 2.71 Hydro Natural Flow 1,158 11.95 Hydro Pumped Storage 740 7.64 Source: http://www.berr.gov.uk/energy/statistics/source/electricity/page18527.html Table 14: Electrical Energy Generated in Scotland by source, 2006 % of total GWh GWh Generated Generated Nuclear 14141 26.38 Coal 17547 32.73 Gas 11634 21.70 Oil 2141 3.99 Hydro Pumped Storage 1184 2.21 Hydro Natural Flow 4225 7.88 Other Renewables 2737 5.11 Source: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Environment/seso/sesoSubSearch/Q/SID/98 Generator Technology

Table 15: Installed Capacity and Performance of Scottish Renewable Energy sources, 2006 % of total GWh MW Capacity Installed GWh Generated Generated ACT 0.34 1.68 0.03 Biomass 12.98 62.49 1.19 Co-firing 76.2 117 2.23 Hydro <20MW 491.36 2163.64 41.31 Landfill Gas 78.22 403.68 7.71 Micro Hydro 13.04 52.89 1 Onshore Wind 1102.01 2426.98 46.33 PV 0.055 0.016 0 Sewage gas 3.7 9.55 0.18 Wave 1.25 0.009 0 Source: http://www.ofgem.gov.uk/Sustainability/Environmnt/RenewablObl/Documents1/Annual%20report%202006-07.pdf Generator Technology
Wind Energy in Scotland

Wind energy has been the fastest growing form of renewable generation to be connected to the Scottish transmission and distribution infrastructure. The growth of Scottish-based wind generation is shown below together with current statistics for wind farms in operation, in construction, consented and in planning.
THE GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND FROM 2004-2007

Table 16: Annual totals for submitted, approved, refused and built wind farms (MW) in Scotland between 2004-2007 Submitted (MW) Approved (MW) Refused (MW) Built (MW) On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore On-shore Off-shore 2004 2250.3 0 468.58 0 49.50 0 152.43 0 2005 1779.2 0 399.6 0 536.05 0 217.95 0 2006 1071.85 10 653.35 10 256.3 0 367.55 0 2007 567.77 0 620.15 0 512.1 0 226.95 10 Source: http://www.bwea.com/ukwed/index.asp
Scottish Wind Energy Statistics
WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND 2008
Status Operational In Construction Consented In Planning
Table 17: Wind Energy in Scotland, 2008 On-shore (MW) Off-shore (MW) 1,171.28 (54 farms) 10 (1 farm) 651.9 (13 farms) 180 (2 farms) 1,474.45 (48 farms) 0 4,146.72 (90 farms) 0 Source: http://www.bwea.com/ukwed/index.asp
Statistical issues
A more comprehensive set of statistics are clearly required. Such a compilation should take the following into account: The operational capacity of each generation source in Scotland must be determined for each annual period. All statistics should be reported as transparently as possible and aggregated to address concerns regarding commercial sensitivity. A more detailed statistical analysis of the data regarding renewable and non-renewable energy sources is required. The categories used to describe generator connections to transmission and distribution networks should be carefully reviewed to determine the actual capacity installed. Such figures should be compared to data published by the British Wind Energy Association and other industry bodies. To determine the actual % of Scotlands generated electricity that comes from each source (both renewable and non-renewable) will require the capacity of natural flow hydro power stations above and below 20MW to be known and the corresponding energy production of each group. The national energy statistics should only include operational generators, additional data should be supplied on planned, consented and in construction generators. The actual performance of each generation source (both renewable and non-renewable) should be monitored to determine the annual capacity factor of each and the contribution to the electricity generated in Scotland. Assumptions regarding capacity factor should not be used to provide the share of electricity generated from renewables. It is important that the true performance of a multisource renewable portfolio is assed by technology and for the renewable sector as a whole.
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Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee Inquiry Into Scotland's Energy Future

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Energy delivered to the Scottish electricity grid - 2002-2006

2002 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

2003 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

2004 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

2005 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

2006 Scottish Renewable Energy Statistics

THE CAPACITY INSTALLED AND PERFORMANCE OF RENEWABLE GENERATORS

Wind Energy in Scotland

THE GROWTH OF WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND FROM 2004-2007

Scottish Wind Energy Statistics

WIND ENERGY IN SCOTLAND 2008

Status Operational In Construction Consented In Planning

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