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HCL Technologies
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT 4QFY11 4,300 794 18.5 511 3QFY11 4,138 716 17.3 468 % chg (qoq) 3.9 10.8 116bp 9.1 4QFY10 3,425 638 18.6 342 % chg (yoy) 25.5 24.5 (15)bp 49.5
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 34,395 0.9 529/368 97,855 2 18,432 5,547 HCLT.BO HCLT@IN
`503 `578
12 Months
For 4QFY2011, HCL Technologies (HCL Tech) reported a mixed performance. Volume growth came in lower than expected at 3.9% qoq due to moderate volume growth of 3.0% qoq in core software services business. The company signed 20 transformational deals during the quarter. Going ahead, management has indicated that deal booking will be higher in 2HCY2011 as compared to 1HCY2011. HCL Tech has been a beneficiary of the return in demand for enterprise services, and we expect it to ride on spending on discretionary services. The company is expected to post a revenue (USD terms) and PAT CAGR of 22.2% and 30.0%, respectively, over FY201113E. We maintain Buy on the stock. Quarterly highlights: For 4QFY2011, HCL Tech reported revenue of US$963mn, up 5.3% qoq, on the back of 3.9% qoq volume growth and 1.3% qoq benefit due to cross-currency movement. EBITDA and EBIT margin increased by 116bp and 106bp qoq to 18.5% and 15.5% on the back of 1) improvement in utilisation level, 2) lower SG&A investment and 3) higher revenue productivity. PAT came in at `511cr, up 9.1% qoq, aided by forex gain of `8.3cr (the company was making losses on the forex front since 1QFY2009). Outlook and valuation: Management is witnessing a strong demand environment and has signed 20 transformational deals in 4QFY2011 itself on the back of 11 sign-offs in 3QFY2011. We expect HCL Tech to be the outperformer among tier-I IT companies, with a revenue (INR terms) CAGR of 20.6% over FY201113E, on the back of its higher-value services portfolio. At the operating front, levers such as 1) managing SG&A 2) expanding utilisations and 3) turnaround in the BPO segment are expected to improve margins. Thus, we expect EBITDA to grow at a 23.3% CAGR over FY201113E. PAT, on the other hand, is expected to post a much higher CAGR of 30.0%, with improving profitability, forex gains on hedges and treasury gains. We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of `578. Key financials (Consolidated, US GAAP)
Y/E June (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 64.4 6.1 21.4 8.2
3m (5.2)
1yr 2.0
(2.4) 32.3
FY2009 10,630 39.2 1,277 13.6 22.1 18.8 26.7 6.0 22.5 14.9 3.4 15.4
FY2010 12,564 18.2 1,302 2.0 20.5 18.9 26.6 4.9 18.5 15.3 2.8 13.7
FY2011 16,034 27.6 1,710 31.3 17.1 24.5 20.5 4.1 20.3 15.4 2.2 12.6
FY2012E 19,641 22.5 2,175 27.2 17.2 31.0 16.2 3.5 21.9 17.0 1.7 10.0
FY2013E 23,308 18.7 2,892 32.9 17.9 41.3 12.2 2.9 23.8 18.1 1.4 7.5
Srishti Anand
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6820 srishti.anand@angelbroking.com
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
4QFY2011 4,300 2,906 1,393 599 794 129 665 7 672 170 502 8 511 7.3 32.4 18.5 15.5 11.9
3QFY2011 4,138 2,812 1,326 610 716 120 596 13 609 130 479 (11) 468 6.7 32.0 17.3 14.4 11.3
% chg (qoq) 3.9 3.3 5.1 (1.7) 10.8 7.4 11.5 10.4 30.7 4.8 (174.1) 9.1 9.1 36bp 116bp 106bp 58bp
4QFY2010 3,425 2,292 1,133 495 638 113 525 (21) 504 25 479 (137) 342 5.0 33.1 18.6 15.3 10.0
% chg (yoy) 25.5 26.8 23.0 21.1 24.5 14.0 26.8 33.4 569.1 5.0 (106.1) 49.5 47.1 (66)bp (15)bp 15bp 182bp
FY2011 16,034 10,914 5,120 2,371 2,749 498 2,251 26 2,277 485 1,791 (82) 1,709 24.5 31.9 17.1 14.0 10.6
FY2010 12,564 8,196 4,369 1,796 2,573 501 2,072 (55) 2,017 240 1,778 (481) 1,302 18.9 34.8 20.5 16.5 10.4
% chg (yoy) 27.6 33.2 17.2 32.0 6.8 (0.7) 8.7 12.9 101.9 0.7 (83.0) 31.3 29.5 (284)bp (333)bp (245)bp 23bp
10.9 10.3 10.5 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.1 5.6 6.7 5.6 4.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
2QFY11 Onsite
3QFY11 Total
4QFY11
In INR terms, revenue came in at `4,299.5cr, up 3.9% qoq; lower growth as against dollar revenue was due to 1.0% qoq INR appreciation against USD in 4QFY2011. Core software continues its growth momentum, albeit at a slower pace: During the quarter, core software services posted decent 4.3% qoq revenue growth (USD terms) to US$679.0mn, led by 3.0% qoq volume growth. This was on the back of USD revenue growth of 5.2%, 2.5% and 1.7% qoq (CC terms) in engineering and R&D services (ERD) (contributed 17.8% to revenue), custom application services (contributed 31.8% to revenue) and enterprise application services (EAS) (contributed 20.9% to revenue). In EAS, the company is witnessing continued traction from the consolidation of projects (multi-platform to single-platform) and upgradation of existing systems. In terms of ERP, hi-tech and aerospace continue to drive IT spends with energy and utilities showing signs of growth potential. Infrastructure services led to strong growth: The infrastructure services segment reported whopping 10.5% qoq growth in revenue (USD terms) to US$236.2mn on the back of strong 9.2% qoq growth (CC terms) in infrastructure management services (IMS), contributing 24.5% to revenue; and cross-currency benefit of 1.3%. Currently, the segment is witnessing continued demand traction for technology and operational transformation outsourcing as well as system integration. Continental Europe and emerging markets are focusing on reducing operations cost, which is driving transformational outsourcing. A large part of the deal flow is from existing clients due to contract renewals. BPO declines: The BPO segment, which has returned to its growth path since the last couple of quarters, again posted a decline in revenue by 4.4% qoq at US$47.7mn. In CC terms, the segment reported a 5.7% qoq decline. The demand environment is heating up as clients are looking at globalisation of delivery capabilities, which is driving transformation and enterprise-wide cost efficiency. The company is continuously investing in building platforms for non voice-based businesses in this segment. The company is expected to invest US$5mn6mn every quarter in BPO services until CY2011 and BPO is expected to breakeven from CY2012.
HCL Techs anchor industry segments, financial services (contributed 26.0% to revenue) and manufacturing (contributed 28.0% to revenue) continued their growth momentum and reported 2.0% and 7.6% qoq growth (CC terms) in revenue, respectively. In the financial services space, IT spend is coming from work related to regulatory compliance, risk prevention and data analytics. Demand in the manufacturing space is coming for business needs related to operational efficiency, cost reduction and product development. Also, in the manufacturing segment, pent-up demand is seen for transformation projects related to digital transformation, mobility and multi-channel commerce in US and Europe. The energy, utilities and public sector (EPU) segment emerged as the companys primary growth driver, with its revenue growing by 18.7% qoq (CC terms). In addition, media, publishing and entertainment (MPE) and healthcare posted revenue growth of 11.7% and 2.9% qoq (CC terms), respectively. However, the retail and consumer product group (CPG) vertical and the telecom vertical again reported a decline in revenue by 5.2% and 8.3% qoq (CC terms), respectively, in 4QFY2011. Management has indicated that the retail vertical will rebound from the next quarter, but telecom will continue to witness some systemic softness in IT spending.
4QFY11
2.0 7.6 (8.3) (5.2) 11.7 2.9 18.7 5.5
During the quarter, HCL Tech reported growth across all geographies. Revenue from North America and Europe grew by 5.5% qoq and 3.0% qoq (CC terms), respectively, while rest of the world posted just 0.7% qoq growth (CC terms).
16.7
20.5
10.8
(%)
10 6
2QFY11 Europe
4QFY11
4QFY11
2,416 1,533 (323) 50,218 16,267 10,561
Utilisation, onsite and offshore-excluding trainees, declined by 30bp and 20bp qoq to 96.2% and 76.1%, respectively. Utilisation level, offshore-including trainees, improved by 60bp qoq to 72.5%. The company is trying to improve its utilisation level (including trainees) further to 7475%, which can be an important lever to improve margins.
90
(%)
80
77.0
74.1
75.0
76.3
76.1
70
72.9
70.1
70.1
71.9
72.5
33.1
31.6
31.6
32.0
32.4
20 15
17.3
18.5
10 4QFY10
14.4 3QFY11
15.5
4QFY11
EBIT margin
HCL Tech has been expanding its margins since the last three quarters. Going ahead, in 1QFY2012, the company has announced wage hikes of 1214% for offshore employees and 2-4% for onsite employees, which will negatively impact operating margins by 300350bp. Segment wise, EBIT margin for core software services and infrastructure services increased by 100bp and 79bp qoq to 16.8% and 16.5%, respectively, in 4QFY2011. The BPO segment again managed to pull up its gross margin by 44bp qoq to 19.3%. Also, at the EBITDA and EBIT level, the segment trimmed down its losses with margins improving by 132bp and 85bp qoq, respectively. The BPO segment is expected to breakeven in 1QCY2012.
(%)
(4.9)
(3.2)
(1.9)
(12) (18)
(11.0) 2QFY11
EBITDA margin
(9.1)
3QFY11
4QFY11
EBIT margin
turnaround in the BPO segment on top of strong growth are expected to improve the companys margins. Thus, we expect EBITDA to grow at a 23.3% CAGR over FY201013E. PAT, on the other hand, is expected to post a much higher CAGR of 30.0%, with improving profitability, forex gains on hedges and treasury gains. At the CMP of `503, the stock is trading at 12.2x FY2013E EPS of `41.3. The outperformance registered by the company warrants the discount to Infosys to be bridged. Thus, we value the company at 14x FY2013E EPS i.e., at a discount of 30% to Infosys target multiple of 20x (vs. historical discount of 3540%). We maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of `578.
10
(`)
450 350 250 150 50 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Price 19x 16x 13x 10x 6x
11
12
13
14
Key ratios
Y/E June Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Fully diluted) Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 2.2 79 1.8 76 2.2 59 2.5 57 2.9 57 14.9 17.6 22.5 15.3 18.7 18.5 15.4 18.3 20.3 17.0 20.9 21.9 18.1 24.4 23.8 0.9 1.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 31.7 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 25.2 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.1 1.7 21.2 0.8 1.0 0.1 1.2 1.7 21.8 0.8 1.1 0.2 1.2 1.6 23.7 18.8 25.5 8.0 83.9 18.9 26.2 8.0 102.2 24.5 31.8 8.0 121.4 31.0 39.6 8.0 142.7 41.3 51.2 9.0 174.8 26.7 19.7 6.0 1.6 3.4 15.4 2.8 26.6 19.2 4.9 1.6 2.8 13.7 2.6 20.5 15.8 4.1 1.6 2.2 12.6 2.4 16.2 12.7 3.5 1.6 1.7 10.0 2.0 12.2 9.8 2.9 1.8 1.4 7.5 1.6 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
15
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
HCL Tech No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
16