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COMMODITY
Market

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

METALS EDGE HIGHER ON US DEBT CEILING

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Economic Data
Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Fundamental Market Overview

Market
watch GOLD HITS RECORD ON WEAK U.S. GROWTH, DEBT WOES
financial markets, analysts said. But a ratings downgrade on U.S. debt would force the world's largest institutional investors to sell off U.S. Treasury holdings, and Gold would be the best refuge asset for the funds, said Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals. Spot Gold touched an all-time peak of $1,632.30 an ounce, and was up 0.5 percent at $1,623.99. The U.S. December contract settled up $15 at $1,631.20 an ounce. Futures volumes were lower than the last several sessions, as most investors had completed contract rollover ahead of the August contract's first-notice day on Friday. Silver rose 0.8 percent to $39.97 an ounce, but was off a more than two-month high of $41.42 hit this week. It posted a gain of around 15 percent for July, its best month since April. The CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index, which is often referred to as the "Gold VIX" and is based on SPDR Gold Trust options, rose to its highest in over two months, as the market braced for a swift pullback following the rally. Investor unease can also be seen in the holdings of the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, which rose 1.5 percent on Thursday from a day earlier to a six-month high of 1,262.98 tonnes. Gold hit another all-time high on Friday as investors sought a safe haven after anemic U.S. growth data raised the specter that a potential recession could spur the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy. Gold was helped by a sinking dollar, as investors fretted over sovereign debt in the United States and Europe. U.S. political leaders remained at odds over how to reduce the deficit as the clock ticked toward an Aug. 2 deadline to raise the government debt ceiling. Bullion, which usually rises as the dollar weakens, hit its third record in five days, notching a near 9 percent monthly gain for July. Gold rallied after U.S. Commerce Department data showed the economy stumbled in the first half of 2011 and came close to contracting in the first quarter. Some investors worried about the risk of a recession that could make the Fed more accommodative, feeding inflation and boosting Gold prices. The weak economic data suggests that you may see some form of stimulus, certainly highly accommodative monetary policies, and that will continue to put a bid on Gold prices. Investors kept a close eye on Washington, because Gold prices could tumble if government leaders reach a U.S. debt-ceiling deal that boosts investor confidence in other

Mon Aug 01

7:30pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

USD USD USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI Construction Spending m/m ISM Manufacturing Prices

55.0 -0.1% 64.4

55.3 -0.6% 68.0

Tue Aug 02

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm All Day

USD USD USD USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m Personal Spending m/m Personal Income m/m Total Vehicle Sales Challenger Job Cuts y/y ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Factory Orders m/m Crude Oil Inventories Unemployment Claims Natural Gas Storage

0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 11.9M

0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 11.5M 5.3%

Market
watch

Wed Aug 03

NYMEX-US CRUDE ENDS DOWN ON WEAK GDP, DEBT WORRIES

FUNDAMENTALS On the New York Mercantile Exchange, Crude for September delivery settled down $1.74 at $95.70 a barrel, the lowest close since July 14's $95.69. It traded from $94.95 to $97.39 in light volume. For the week, the contract fell $4.17, or 4.2 percent, from the $99.87 close on July 22, after gaining in the four previous weeks. For the month, front-month Crude edged up 28 cents, or 0.3 percent. UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS Weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday.

5:00pm 5:45pm 7:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

USD USD USD USD USD USD USD

102K 53.9 -0.4%

157K 53.3 0.8% 2.3M

U.S. Crude oil futures ended down 1.79 percent on Friday, posting the lowest close in two weeks after data showed anemic second-quarter economic growth and Washington remained bogged down in its debtlimit debate. The latest reading of how the economy has fared this year adds up to a poor first half. It raised the risk of a recession if Washington's the standoff on debt limit remain unresolved by Aug. 2. Fears of potential supply disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico subsided as Tropical Storm Don churned toward the Texas coast, but away from the basin's largest concentration of energy facilities. Late Friday, the center of the storm was approaching the coast of South Texas.

Thu Aug 04

6:00pm 8:00pm

407K

398K 43B 18K 9.2% 0.0%

Fri Aug 05

6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm

USD USD USD

Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate Average Hourly Earnings m/m

91K 9.2% 0.2%

Market
watch

COPPER EKES OUT GAIN AMID CHILEAN SUPPLY THREAT

recovering from an early loss to $4.4115. It also touched a three-month high at $4.5020. Prices recoiled alongside a positive bounce in U.S. equities after the S&P 500 index briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average. Still, analysts questioned the sustainability of the move. U.S. President Barack Obama earlier told Republicans and Democrats to find a way "out of this mess." The United States will be unable to borrow money to pay its bills if Congress does not raise the debt limit by Aug. 2. Looking ahead, traders will likely take their directional cues early next week from Chinese manufacturing data on Monday, which is expected to show further moderation in the country's factory activity.

Sat Aug 06

12:30am

USD

Consumer Credit m/m

5.0B

5.1B

Copper ended up a shade in choppy trade on Friday, failing to sustain a surge to three-month highs as economic jitters limited the bullish impact of Chilean supply shocks. Copper posted its second straight monthly gain as investors bet on improved demand in the second half, along with a supply shortfall, with production problems mounting in top producer Chile. Prices rallied overnight to early-April peaks, then balked after data showed the U.S. economy stumbled badly in the first half of 2011, coming dangerously close to contracting in the JanuaryMarch period. London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark Copper eked out a $5 gain by the close to $9,820 a tonne, after hitting an earliersession peak at $9,895, its highest since April 11. In New York, the key September COMEX contract settled up 1 cent at $4.4795 per lb, after

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

GOLD

SILVER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 1689 1657 1644 1624 1611 1592 1559

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold was sustaining at higher levels and closed near to its weekly high. In the coming week 1580 $ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold. If COMEX Gold sustains above 1575 $ an ounce then above 1610$ an ounce it can touch the level of 1625$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1540$ then it can go slightly down and test the level of 1510$ an ounce.

MARKET OVERVIEW
COMEX Silver is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Silver was neither sustaining at higher levels nor at lower levels but was able to close above 4000$ an ounce. For the upcoming week 3780$ and 3600$ are the crucial supports and 4200$ and 4350$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 61000 and 63000 will act as major resistance and 57000 and 55000 will act as major supports.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4462 4245 4128 4029 3911 3812 3596

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1600 $ an ounce, then above 1640$ it can test the level of 1655$ an ounce and above 1660$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

STRATEGY
Technically COMEX Silver is consolidating on charts. For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 3800$ an ounce, then above 4040$ an ounce it can go up and can test the level of 4090$ an ounce and above 4150$ it can further move upwards and in MCX Silver above 60000 it can test the level of 60800 and 61500. Trade by keeping the proper stop losses.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

CRUDE

COPPER

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week Crude oil was sustaining at lower level and made a close near to week low. For the coming week 92.5$ and 88.5$ will act as major supports and 101$ and 104.50$ a barrel will be a major resistance in NYMEX Crude. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4500 and 4680 and major supports will be 4100 and 3980.

MARKET OVERVIEW
Copper is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of the week. If next week COMEX Copper does not sustains below the level of 440 then above the level of 450 Copper can test the level of 457. In MCX Copper sustains above 439 then it can test the level of 445 if it does not break the level of 432 on the downside.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 471 458 453 445 439 431 418

108.43 102.76 99.23 97.09 93.56 91.42 85.75

STRATEGY
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of 94 $ a barrel then above 96.8$ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 98 $ a barrel and in MCX if Crude sustains above 4220 then above 4290 it can touch the level of 4350.Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 451 and 460 will act as major resistance and 433 and 425 will act as major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 440 and 450 and supports would be found at 427 and 410.

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Weekly Chart

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

NATURAL GAS

USD / INR

Weekly Chart

Expert

Observation

Expert
WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 4.668 4.525 4.447 4.382 4.304 4.239 4.096

Observation

MARKET OVERVIEW
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was down for most part of the week and closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas does not sustains below the level of 4.000 $ then above the level of 4.220$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.320 $ and below 3.950 $ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of 3.820 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above 180 in the coming week then it can test the level of 192, if it does not break the level of 178 on the downside.

MARKET OVERVIEW
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next week USD/INR sustains below the level of 44.0000 then below the level of 43.8500 USD/INR can test the level of 43.7200.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 45.3000 44.7300 44.4600 44.1600 43.8900 43.5900 43.0200

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 43.6000 and 43.4800 will act as major supports and 45.4500 and 46.0500 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

STRATEGY
For the upcoming week 4.000$ and 3.800$ will act as major supports and 4.730$ and 5.030$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 202 and 215, supports would be found at 177 and 170.

Weekly Chart

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX MCX

5 -AUG -11 05-SEP -11 30-AUG -11 19-AUG -11 26-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11 30-AUG -11

GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LEAD NICKEL ALUMINIUM

RS. / 10GM. RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS/QUINTAL RS. / BBL. RS./ MM BTU RS. / KG. RS. / KG. RS. / KG.

23099 59486 433.45 4446

23131 59625 433.35 4440 196 195

23358 60819 438.4 4448 198.2 121.5 111.25 1103 117.35

22930 58130 430.2 4216 184.5 116.15 108.75 1061 114

23166 58898 436.85 4237 185.1 116.25 109.95 1098.8 115.55

181389 575507 417053 1024263 131915 20859 19923 65729 6311

67 -588 3.4 -209 -10.9 -4.1 -0.2 26.3 0.75

2676 16534 21816 31556 14587 3260 2640 6299 1248

4133177.62 10248797.83 1805309.05 4435236.16 312676.47 121689.62 107973 174938.91 35899.58

* Turnover Till Friday

120.35 110.15 1072.5 114.8

119.7 109.35 1070.7 114.5

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Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Week : 01st to 05th August 2011

Weekly Market Update Commodity Watch

International Market
Commodity
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS USD/INR

Weekly Pivots
Closing Price
1631.2 4010.6 447.95 95.7 4.145 44.2

% Change
1.71 -0.04 1.58 -4.18 -5.77 -0.32

Scripts
GOLD SILVER COPPER CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS LEAD ZINC NICKEL ALUMINUM

R3
24007.33 64660.33 451.55 4764.33 216.67 128.67 114.98 1171.60 122.33

R2
23579.33 61971.33 443.35 4532.33 202.97 123.32 112.48 1129.60 118.98

R1
23372.67 60434.67 440.10 4384.67 194.03 119.78 111.22 1114.20 117.27

PP
23151.33 59282.33 435.15 4300.33 189.27 117.97 109.98 1087.60 115.63

S1
22944.67 57745.67 431.90 4152.67 180.33 114.43 108.72 1072.20 113.92

S2
22723.33 56593.33 426.95 4068.33 175.57 112.62 107.48 1045.60 112.28

S3
22295.33 53904.33 418.75 3836.33 161.87 107.27 104.98 1003.60 108.93

Weekly Gainers
Commodity NICKEL COPPER ALUMINIUM Expiry Date 30-AUG-11 30-AUG-11 30-AUG-11 Closing Price 1098.80 436.85 115.55 % Change 2.45 0.78 0.65

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price 185.10 4237 116.25 % Change -5.56 -4.70 -3.41

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NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-11 CRUDE OIL ZINC 19-AUG-11 30-AUG-11

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