1QFY2012 Result Update | Banking

July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank
Performance Highlights

Particulars (` cr) NII Pre-prov. profit PAT

Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY
CMP Target Price
4QFY11 2,510 2,305 1,452 % chg (qoq) (3.9) (3.1) (8.3) 1QFY11 1,991 2,188 1,026 % chg (yoy) 21.1 2.1 29.8

`1,038 `1,324
12 Months

1QFY12 2,411 2,234 1,332

Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code

Banking 1,19,561 1.4 1,277/803 4,75,363 10 18,197 5,482 ICBK.BO ICICIBC@IN

For 1QFY2012, ICICI Banks standalone net profit grew by healthy 29.8% yoy to `1,332cr, below our as well as streets estimates, mainly on account of lower operating income. Moderate NIM compression with largely stable asset quality and continued reduction in NPA provisioning burden were the key highlights of the results. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Moderate NIM compression; stable asset quality leading to lower provisioning burden: During 1QFY2012, the banks business momentum slowed a bit, in-line with its peers. The banks advances increased by 19.7% yoy, while deposits grew by 14.8% yoy. Saving account deposits growth, though moderated in 1QFY2012, was healthy at 18.2% yoy. Average CASA ratio improved by ~50bp qoq to 40%. Reported NIM declined by 10bp qoq to 2.6% due to higher cost of deposits. Growth in fee income was below our expectations at 11.7% yoy. Employee expenses were on the higher side due to salary hike and higher headcount, leading to an increase in cost-to-income ratio to 44.9% from 40.4% in 1QFY2011. Provisioning expenses declined by 43.1% yoy despite the bank having to provide `145cr for the recent hike in regulatory provisioning requirements. Gross NPAs declined marginally by 0.5% qoq, while net NPAs decreased by 4.4% qoq. The provision coverage ratio (as per the RBIs guidelines) improved to 76.9% during the quarter. Outlook and valuation: The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 24 months is expected to sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will enable RoE of 16.0% by FY2013E (with further upside from financial leverage). At the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting for subsidiaries) is trading at 1.9x FY2013E ABV (including subsidiaries also, at 1.9x FY2013E ABV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,324.

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 24.9 65.5 9.6

Abs. (%) Sensex ICICI Bank

3m (5.7) (7.1)

1yr 1.1 12.0

3yr 26.8 56.4

Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) NII % chg Net profit % chg NIM (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/ABV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2010 8,114 (10.8) 4,025 17.6 2.4 36.1 28.7 2.3 1.0 9.7

FY2011 9,017 11.1 5,151 28.0 2.6 44.7 23.2 2.2 1.3 11.7

FY2012E 10,446 15.8 6,397 24.2 2.6 55.5 18.7 2.0 1.4 13.7

FY2013E 13,049 24.9 8,146 27.3 2.7 70.7 14.7 1.9 1.5 16.0 Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com

Shrinivas Bhutda
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6845 shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com

Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2012 performance

Particulars (` cr) Interest earned - on Advances / Bills - on investments - on balance with RBI & others - on others Interest Expended Net Interest Income Other income Other income excl. treasury - Fee income - Treasury income - Other income Operating income Operating expenses - Employee expenses - Other Opex Pre-provision Profit Provisions & Contingencies PBT Provision for Tax PAT Effective Tax Rate (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 7,619 4,935 2,251 114 319 5,208 2,411 1,643 1,668 1,578 (25) 90 4,054 1,820 733 1,087 2,234 454 1,780 448 1,332 25.2 7,156 4,535 2,209 91 321 4,647 2,510 1,641 1,837 1,791 (196) 46 4,150 1,845 857 989 2,305 384 1,921 469 1,452 24.4 6.5 8.8 1.9 25.0 (0.8) 12.1 (3.9) 0.1 (9.2) (11.9) (87.2) 96.8 (2.3) (1.4) (14.4) 9.9 (3.1) 18.3 (7.3) (4.5) (8.3) 74bp 5,813 3,779 1,659 98 277 3,821 1,991 1,681 1,576 1,413 105 163 3,672 1,483 576 908 2,188 798 1,390 364 1,026 26.2 31.1 30.6 35.7 16.1 14.8 36.3 21.1 (2.2) 5.8 11.7 (44.9) 10.4 22.7 27.3 19.7 2.1 (43.1) 28.0 23.0 29.8 (104)bp

Exhibit 2: 1QFY2012 Actual vs. estimates

Particulars (` cr) Net interest income Other income Operating income Operating expenses Pre-prov. profit Provisions & cont. PBT Prov. for taxes PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

Actual 2,411 1,643 4,054 1,820 2,234 454 1,780 448 1,332

Estimates 2,545 1,840 4,385 1,952 2,433 399 2,034 541 1,493

Var. (%) (5.3) (10.7) (7.5) (6.8) (8.2) 13.8 (12.5) (17.1) (10.8)

July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 3: 1QFY2012 performance analysis

Particulars Balance sheet Advances (` cr) Deposits (` cr) Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (%) Current deposits (` cr) Saving deposits (` cr) CASA deposits (` cr) CASA ratio (%) CAR (%) Tier 1 CAR (%) Profitability Ratios (%) Reported NIM Cost-to-income ratio Asset quality Gross NPAs (` cr) Gross NPAs (%) Net NPAs (` cr) Net NPAs (%) Provision Coverage Ratio (%) Provision exps. to avg. assets (%)
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) 220,693 216,366 230,678 225,602 95.7 29,796 66,858 41.9 19.6 13.4 2.6 44.9 9,983 4.4 2,303 1.0 76.9 0.4 95.9 34,878 66,869 45.1 19.5 13.2 2.7 44.5 10,034 4.5 2,407 1.1 76.0 0.4 2.0 184,378 2.2 200,913 (23)bp (14.6) (0.0) (5.0) (320)bp 3bp 19bp (10)bp 43bp (0.5) (11)bp (4.4) (7)bp 89bp 6bp 91.8 28,072 56,546 84,618 42.1 20.2 14.0 2.5 40.4 9,829 5.1 3,456 1.9 64.8 0.9 19.7 14.8 390bp 6.1 18.2 14.2 (22)bp (63)bp (64)bp 10bp 449bp 1.6 (78)bp (33.4) (83)bp 1210bp (44)bp

96,654 101,747

Reasonable business growth; NIM largely sustained

During 1QFY2012, the momentum in the banks advances slowed a bit, in-line with its peers. Advances increased by 2.0% qoq. Sequential growth was slower due to the seasonal rundown of rural loans (down 10.6% qoq) and the banks cautious approach on retail loans (down 1.2% qoq). Corporate loans showed healthy traction both sequentially (up 13.5%) as well as on a yoy basis (up 41.8%). The SME segment also showed healthy traction, with growth of 6.2% qoq (up by healthy 49.6% yoy), while personal loans and credit card debt continued to witness declines. The retail segments contribution to the advances book came down to 37.5% as of 1QFY2012 from 41.0% as of 1QFY2011; while, at the same time, contribution of the corporate segment rose to 23.7% from 20.0% in 1QFY2011. Advances growth on a yoy basis was partly aided by the base effect due to Bank of Rajasthans merger in 2QFY2011. Deposits growth was moderate at 2.2% qoq and 14.8% yoy. CASA deposits growth rate decelerated, despite having a favourable base effect, to 14.2% yoy. On a sequential basis, CASA deposits declined by 5.0% due to the seasonal decline in current account balances (which were down 14.6% qoq). Period-end CASA ratio declined by 320bp qoq to 41.9% due the dip in volatile current account balances. However, average CASA ratio improved by ~50bp to 40%. Reported NIM declined by 10bp qoq to 2.6% due to the sharp rise in cost of funds for the system as a whole and slower CASA deposit accretion due to the widening differential between saving account rate and FD rate. Domestic NIM declined by ~10bp qoq to ~3.0%, while overseas NIM improved marginally to ~0.9%.
July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Going forward in FY2012, management expects global NIMs to sustain at 2.6% on the back of better CASA deposits accretion and improvement in overseas NIM from the present level of 0.9% to ~1.3% over the next 46 quarters.

Exhibit 4: Strong traction in corporate loans

Particulars (` cr) Rural Overseas Corporate SME Retail - Housing - Vehicle - Personal - Credit cards - Other retail Total Advances 1QFY12 4QFY11 % chg (qoq) 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) % to total 18,759 55,835 52,304 11,035 82,760 54,622 21,435 1,986 2,648 2,069 20,987 55,173 46,086 10,386 83,734 53,924 22,524 2,345 2,763 2,177 (10.6) 1.2 13.5 6.2 (1.2) 1.3 (4.8) (15.3) (4.2) (5.0) 16,594 47,938 36,876 7,375 75,595 46,869 19,655 3,780 3,780 1,512 13.0 16.5 41.8 49.6 9.5 16.5 9.1 (47.5) (29.9) 36.8 19.7 8.5 25.3 23.7 5.0 37.5 24.8 9.7 0.9 1.2 0.9 100.0

220,693 216,366

2.0 184,378

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 5: Business growth moderates

Adv. qoq growth 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 (2.0) (4.0)
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 6: CASA growth moderates in-line with peers

CDR (%, RHS) 96 100 90 80 70 45.0 40.0 35.0 CASA ratio (%) 32.3 34.5
23.0

Dep. qoq growth 95 96

CASA yoy growth (%, RHS) 40.0 30.0

20.8 14.2

92 87

20.0 10.0 -

42.1

44.0

44.2

45.1

1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 60

25.0 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 7: NIM declines 10bp qoq

2.8 2.6 2.5 NIM (Reported, %) 2.7 2.6 2.6

Exhibit 8: NII growth remains healthy at 20.0%+ levels

NII (` cr) 3,000 2,400 1,800 1,200 600 0.3 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research
12.3

YoY growth (%, RHS) 23.3 21.1 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 -

2.6

2.4

8.3

2.2 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

July 29, 2011

41.9

30.0

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Fee income growth moderates

During 1QFY2012, other income declined by 2.2% yoy due to treasury loss of `25cr compared to profit of `105cr in 1QFY2011. Excluding treasury loss, other income registered growth of 5.8% yoy, driven primarily by 11.7% yoy growth in fee income. However, growth in fee income was below expectations. The bank is witnessing traction in fees from the more granular transaction banking, forex and derivatives segments. Management expects corporate fees to gain momentum once the traction comes back in corporate loan sanctions and new projects. Going forward, the bank is targeting fee income growth in-line with advances growth on the back of growth in corporate fees and pick-up in retail fees.

Exhibit 9: Overall fee income growth muted

Particulars (` cr) Fee income Treasury Others Other income Other income excl. treasury
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 4QFY11 1,578 (25) 90 1,643 1,668 1,791 (196) 46 1,641 1,837

% chg (qoq) (11.9) (87.2) 95.7 0.1 (9.2)

1QFY11 1,413 105 163 1,681 1,576

% chg (yoy) 11.7 (44.8) (2.2) 5.8

Exhibit 10: Fee income growth slows

Fee Income (` cr) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Still healthy share of fee income in RoA

20.0 15.0 10.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 1.6 Fee income to average assets (%) 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5

yoy growth (%, RHS) 17.8

14.6

14.3
11.7

7.1

1,413

1,590

1,625

1,791

1,578

5.0 -

Source: Company, Angel Research

Asset quality continues to improve

The banks asset quality continued to improve during 1QFY2012, with gross NPAs declining albeit marginally by 0.5% qoq and net NPAs declining by 4.4% qoq to `2,303cr. On a yoy basis, net NPAs dipped sharply by 33.4%. Sequentially, the gross NPA ratio improved to 4.4% as of 1QFY2012 from 4.5% as of 4QFY2011, while net NPA ratio declined to 1.0% from 1.1% as of 4QFY2011. The provision coverage ratio (as per the RBIs guidelines) improved further to 76.9% in 1QFY2012 from 76.0% in 4QFY2011. The annualised gross slippages ratio for the quarter was at ~1.4%, largely in-line with managements target of 1.21.3%. Of the slippages, ~`200cr were pertaining to Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs). The bank expects to restructure MFI loans of ~`700cr in 2QFY2012. The banks total exposure to MFIs stands at `1,000cr.
July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 12: Restructured advances stable qoq

(` cr) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 3,730 2,578 2,562 1,970 1,966

Exhibit 13: Declining NPAs with improving coverage

Gross NPAs (%) 5.1 69.0 64.8 71.8 70.0 Net NPAs (%) Coverage ratio (%, RHS) 76.0 76.9 80.0

3.4

1.7

60.0

5.1 1.9

5.0 1.6

4.8 1.2

4.5 1.1

1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

4.4 1.0
50.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

The banks restructured loans were flat sequentially at `1,966cr. The bank is likely to restructure loans of ~`700cr to MFIs during 2QFY2012. Provisioning expenses for the quarter declined by 43.1% yoy despite providing `145cr towards the recent hike in regulatory provisioning requirements.

Opex under control

During 1QFY2012, operating expenses increased by 22.7% yoy on account of a 27.3% rise in employee expenses. Employee expenses growth was higher due to the expansion in the employee base from ~43,000 in 1QFY2011 to ~60,000 (including ~4,000 employees from the erstwhile Bank of Rajasthan) and an average 11% salary hike implemented in 1QFY2012. The cost-to-income ratio rose to 44.9% in 1QFY2012 as compared to 44.5% in 4QFY2011 and 40.4% in 1QFY2011. Operating expenses to average assets was sequentially stable at 1.8%. After a substantial rise in employee headcount over the past one year, the bank is not planning considerable employee additions in FY2012. The bank is targeting to maintain a cost-to-income ratio of ~41% and operating cost to average assets of ~1.7% for FY2012.

Exhibit 14: Opex rises due to staff expenses...

Other opex (` cr) 2,000 Staff exps Opex yoy growth (RHS) (%) 30.0

Exhibit 15: ...leading to higher cost ratios

Cost-to-income ratio (%) 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research

Opex to avg assets (%, RHS) 1.8 1.8

733

576

624

760

857

1,500 1,000 500 -

20.0 10.0

1.6

1.7

1,087

40.4

41.5

42.3

44.5

908

946

957

989

44.9

(10.0)

1.5 1.4

1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Strong capital adequacy

Driven by its large net worth, capital adequacy continued to be strong at 19.6%, comprising substantial tier-1 component of 13.4%.

Exhibit 16: Best-in-class capital adequacy

(%) 21.0 17.5 14.0 10.5 7.0 17.7 19.4 Tier-I CAR 19.4 20.2 Tier-II CAR 20.2 20.0 19.5 19.6

5.2

5.4

6.2

6.4

6.3

4.4

13.3

14.2

14.0

14.0

13.8

13.7

13.2

2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12

Source: Company, Angel Research

Under-leveraged branch network

With the merger of Bank of Rajasthan, the bank enjoys a strong pan-India network of 2,533 branches. The number of branches has grown at a strong pace over the past three years. This extensive network is under-leveraged as of now, as reflected in the falling CASA deposits/branch of ~`40cr compared to `65cr as of 3QFY2008 and the total assets/branch of `161cr compared to `394cr as of 3QFY2008. Further, management is planning to take the branch network to ~4,000 branches over the next four years (FY2015) in a back-ended mode. Going forward, we expect the bank to leverage this network to grow its CASA market share.

Exhibit 17: Robust branch expansion

2,700 2,250 1,800 1,350 900 450 -

Exhibit 18: Under-leveraged branch network

Total Assets/Branch (` cr) CASA Deposits/Branch (` cr, RHS)

450 360 270 180

1,388

1,471

2,016

2,533

955

90 -

3QFY08

4QFY08

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

July 29, 2011

1QFY12

3QFY08

4QFY08

1QFY09

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

13.4
80 60 40 20 -

3.5

6.4

6.2

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Overview of performance of subsidiaries

For 1QFY2012, consolidated net profit rose by 52.8% yoy to `1,667cr. ICICI Prudential Life Insurance maintained its position as the largest private sector life insurer based on Retail New Business Weighted Received Premium in 1QFY2012. ICICI Lombard General Insurance also maintained its leadership position in the private sector in 1QFY2012.

Exhibit 19: Performance of subsidiaries

Subsidiary ICICI Bank UK ICICI Bank Canada ICICI Bank Eurasia ICICI Home Finance ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Parameter PAT (USD mn) PAT (CAD mn) PAT (USD mn) PAT (` cr) APE (` cr) NBP (` cr) NBP margin (%) AuM (` cr) ICICI Lombard Gen. Insurance ICICI Securities ICICI Securities PD ICICI Venture ICICI Prudential AMC
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 5.0 12.3 (0.3) 70 445 71 16.0 67,447 1,118 33 10 23 5 25

1QFY11 9.0 57 1,182 225 19.0 59,547 1,303 40 25 34 11 32

% chg (44.4) 23.0 (62.4) (68.4) (15.8) 13.3 (14.2) (17.5) (60.0) (32.4) (54.5) (21.9)

Gross Premium (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr) PAT (` cr)

Investment arguments
Well positioned to garner strong market share gains in CASA deposits
In our view, the banks substantial branch expansion from 955 branches at the end of 3QFY2008 to 2,533 branches by 1QFY2012 and strong capital adequacy at 19.6% (Tier-I at 13.4%) have positioned it to gain CASA and credit market share, respectively. In fact, the bank has begun gaining market share in savings accounts since FY2010. During FY2011, the bank improved its market share of savings deposits by 10bp over FY2010, capturing a substantial 5.8% incremental market share.

Improved deposit mix to lead to better NIM

The banks strategic transformation is expected to drive significantly better balance sheet and earnings quality, taking RoEs from 9.7% in FY2010 to 16.0% in FY2013E. The distinguishing feature of the banks performance in FY2010 was the improvement in CASA ratio to 42.1% (transformative considering that the ratio was as low as 22% at the end of FY2007 and 29% even as recently as FY2009). The CASA ratio has remained healthy at 41.9% even in 1QFY2012. In light of this change in liability mix, even in a rising interest rate scenario, we expect the banks

July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

NIM to remain stable in FY2012 and improve to ~2.7% by FY2013 on the back of improvement in international NIM from ~0.9% as of 1QFY2012 to ~1.3% over the next 46 quarters. Apart from the paradigm shift in the deposit mix reflected in its 41.9% CASA ratio, the bank has largely exited unattractive business segments such as small-ticket personal loans in the domestic segment and most non-India related exposures in its international business, focusing again on replacing wholesale funds with retail deposits in international subsidiaries as well.

Worst of asset quality issues over

The banks asset quality continues to show further improvement, with a declining trend in additions to gross as well as net NPAs. Even in 1QFY2012, annualised gross slippages ratio was comfortable at 1.4%. Also, the bank has already reached a comfortable provision coverage ratio of 76.9%. The banks restructured loans continued their sharp fall, declining by 47.3% yoy, to `1,966cr from `3,730cr in 1QFY2011. We have factored in NPA provisions to decline by 35.9% in FY2012 over FY2011 levels and stabilise at these lower levels in FY2013. We expect the reduction in risk profile of advances (and the consequent lower yield on advances) to result in a ~90bp decline in NPA provisioning costs by 2013E over FY2011, eventually reflecting in improved RoA from 1.0% to 1.5% over FY201013E, commensurate with the improvement in CASA ratio.

Valuations attractive
We have a positive view on ICICI Bank, given its market-leading businesses across the financial services spectrum. Moreover, we believe the bank is decisively executing a strategy of consolidation, which has resulted in an improved deposit and loan mix and should drive improved operating metrics over the medium term. The banks substantial branch expansion in the past 24 months is expected to sustain a far more favourable deposit mix going forward. Moreover, a lower risk balance sheet has driven down NPA provisioning costs, which we believe will drive 24.2% yoy growth in net profit for FY2012 and enable RoE of 16.0% by FY2013E (with further upside from financial leverage). At the CMP, the banks core banking business (after adjusting `191/share towards value of the subsidiaries) is trading at 1.9x FY2013E ABV (including subsidiaries also, the stock is trading at 1.9x FY2013E ABV). We value the banks subsidiaries at `191/share and the core bank at `1,134/share (2.6x FY2012E ABV). We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `1,324 (`1,355), implying an upside of 27.6% from current levels.

Exhibit 20: SOTP valuation summary

Particulars ICICI Bank Life Insurance General Insurance Others (Home Fin, AMC, VC, Securities Securities PD and Overseas subsidiaries) SOTP value
Source: Angel Research

Target multiple 2.6x FY2013E ABV 15.0x FY2013E NBP 15x FY2013E PAT

Value/share (`) 1,134 89 22 79 1,324

July 29, 2011

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 21: Key assumptions

Particulars (%) Credit growth Deposit growth CASA ratio NIMs Other income growth Growth in staff expenses Growth in other expenses Slippages Treasury gain/(loss) (% of investments)
Source: Angel Research

Earlier estimates FY2012 20.0 21.0 45.9 2.7 26.8 29.4 25.0 1.5 0.1 FY2013 23.0 23.0 45.5 2.7 23.4 24.6 21.9 1.6 0.1

Revised estimates FY2012 20.0 21.0 45.9 2.6 16.8 16.3 23.8 1.5 (0.1) FY2013 23.0 23.0 45.5 2.7 28.0 23.0 23.0 1.5 0.1

Exhibit 22: Change in estimates

FY2012 Particulars (` cr) NII Non-interest income Operating income Operating expenses Pre-prov. profit Provisions & cont. PBT Prov. for taxes PAT
Source: Angel Research

Earlier estimates 10,799 8,362 19,161 8,396 10,766 1,813 8,952 2,380 6,572

Revised Var. (%) estimates 10,446 7,697 18,142 7,978 10,165 1,440 8,725 2,328 6,397 (3.3) (8.0) (5.3) (5.0) (5.6) (20.6) (2.5) (2.2) (2.7)

Earlier estimates 13,077 10,284 23,361 10,331 13,031 1,850 11,181 3,198 7,983

FY2013 Revised Var. (%) estimates 13,049 9,798 22,847 9,812 13,035 1,600 11,435 3,289 8,146 (0.2) (4.7) (2.2) (5.0) 0.0 (13.5) 2.3 2.8 2.0

Exhibit 23: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus

Year (`) FY2012E FY2013E Angel forecast 55.5 70.7 Bloomberg consensus 56.5 68.5 Var. (%) (1.6) 3.2

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

July 29, 2011

10

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 24: P/ABV band

Price (`) 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 1x 1.5x 2x 2.5x 3x

Oct-05

Feb-08

Sep-08

Nov-02

May-06

Nov-09

Jun-03

Jun-10

Jan-04

Dec-06

Apr-02

Apr-09

Jan-11

Jul-07

Aug-04

Aug-11

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 25: P/E band

Price (`) 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 7x 17x 27x 37x

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Mar-05

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 26: ICICI Bank Premium/Discount to the Sensex

(%)
100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40) Premium/Discount to Sensex Avg. Historical Premium

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

July 29, 2011

Oct-10

Apr-11

Apr-11

11

Mar-12

ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Exhibit 27: Recommendation summary

Company AxisBk FedBk HDFCBk ICICIBk* SIB YesBk AllBk AndhBk BOB BOI CanBk CentBk CorpBk DenaBk IDBI# IndBk IOB J&KBk OBC PNB SBI* SynBk UcoBk UnionBk UtdBk VijBk Reco. Buy Accumulate Accumulate Buy Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Buy Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Buy Buy Neutral Accumulate Accumulate Neutral CMP (`) 1,338 425 487 1,038 24 311 202 136 878 386 461 116 502 85 129 226 138 872 351 1,124 2,342 120 85 289 94 63 Tgt. price (`) 1,648 483 519 1,324 26 353 145 1,018 434 516 608 96 136 255 155 383 1,217 2,845 139 327 107 Upside (%) 23.1 13.7 6.5 27.6 11.2 13.5 6.8 15.9 12.2 12.1 21.2 13.7 5.4 13.0 12.0 9.0 8.3 21.5 16.0 13.0 14.7 FY2013E P/ABV (x) 2.2 1.1 3.3 1.9 1.2 2.0 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 FY2013E Tgt P/ABV (x) 2.7 1.3 3.5 2.4 1.4 2.3 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.4 2.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 FY2013E P/E (x) 11.1 8.6 17.0 14.7 7.3 10.5 5.7 5.6 6.6 6.0 5.3 5.3 4.7 4.2 5.9 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.9 7.0 8.7 5.0 5.0 6.1 6.3 6.2
#

FY2011-13E EPS CAGR (%) 20.9 20.2 30.5 25.8 11.6 19.1 9.2 3.1 10.8 18.7 (2.4) (10.9) 6.1 5.1 14.3 10.4 22.4 8.8 7.5 7.4 44.2 14.6 16.5 20.0 6.1 8.6

FY2013E RoA (%) 1.5 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5

FY2013E RoE (%) 21.0 14.1 20.9 16.0 17.2 20.6 17.8 16.8 19.6 18.0 17.2 15.1 17.9 15.7 14.5 20.4 16.4 17.0 14.4 20.0 22.6 17.0 17.1 17.9 12.5 12.8

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF

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ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Income statement
Y/E March (` cr) Net Interest Income - YoY Growth (%) Other Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Income - YoY Growth (%) Operating Expenses - YoY Growth (%) Pre - Provision Profit - YoY Growth (%) Prov. & Cont. - YoY Growth (%) Profit Before Tax - YoY Growth (%) Prov. for Taxation - as a % of PBT PAT - YoY Growth (%) FY08 8,202 23.6 8,879 27.5 17,081 25.6 8,154 21.9 8,926 29.2 3,870 18.6 5,056 38.7 898 17.8 4,158 33.7 FY09 9,092 10.9 7,783 (12.3) 16,875 (1.2) 7,045 (13.6) 9,830 10.1 5,048 30.4 4,782 (5.4) 1,359 28.4 3,423 (17.7) FY10 8,114 (10.8) 7,478 (3.9) 15,592 (7.6) 5,860 (16.8) 9,732 (1.0) 4,390 (13.0) 5,342 11.7 1,317 24.7 4,025 17.6 FY11 9,017 11.1 6,648 (11.1) 15,665 0.5 6,617 12.9 9,048 (7.0) 2,290 (47.8) 6,758 26.5 1,606 23.8 5,151 28.0 FY12E 10,446 15.8 7,697 15.8 18,142 15.8 7,978 20.6 10,165 12.3 1,440 (37.1) 8,725 29.1 2,328 26.7 6,397 24.2 FY13E 13,049 24.9 9,798 27.3 22,847 25.9 9,812 23.0 13,035 28.2 1,600 11.1 11,435 31.1 3,289 28.8 8,146 27.3

Balance sheet
Y/E March (` cr) Share Capital - Equity - Preference Reserve & Surplus Deposits - Growth (%) Borrowings Tier 2 Capital Other Liab. & Prov. Total Liabilities Cash Balances Bank Balances Investments Advances - Growth (%) Fixed Assets Other Assets Total Assets - Growth (%) FY08 1,463 1,113 350 45,358 244,431 6.0 65,648 20,750 22,145 399,795 29,378 8,664 111,454 225,616 15.2 4,109 20,575 399,795 14.9 FY09 1,463 1,113 350 48,420 218,348 (10.7) 67,324 25,482 18,265 379,301 17,536 12,430 103,058 218,311 (3.2) 3,802 24,164 379,301 (6.3) FY10 1,465 1,115 350 50,503 202,017 (7.5) 60,947 32,967 15,501 363,400 27,514 11,359 120,893 181,206 (17.0) 3,213 19,215 363,400 (4.4) FY11 1,502 1,152 350 53,939 225,602 11.7 72,813 36,391 15,987 406,234 20,907 13,183 134,686 216,366 19.4 4,744 16,347 406,234 12.1 FY12E 1,502 1,152 350 57,527 272,979 21.0 90,881 37,119 18,646 478,654 20,473 15,611 158,121 259,639 20.0 5,450 19,359 478,654 18.4 FY13E 1,502 1,152 350 62,155 335,764 23.0 115,540 37,862 23,311 576,132 21,825 18,880 186,266 319,356 23.0 6,393 23,412 576,132 20.9

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ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Ratio analysis
Y/E March Profitability ratios (%) NIMs Cost to Income Ratio RoA RoE B/S ratios (%) CASA Ratio Credit/Deposit Ratio CAR - Tier I Asset Quality (%) Gross NPAs Net NPAs Slippages Loan Loss Prov. /Avg. Assets Provision Coverage Per Share Data (`) EPS ABVPS (75% cover.) DPS Valuation Ratios PER (x) P/ABVPS (x) Dividend Yield DuPont Analysis NII (-) Prov. Exp. Adj. NII Treasury Int. Sens. Inc. Other Inc. Op. Inc. Opex PBT Taxes RoA Leverage RoE 2.2 1.1 1.2 0.2 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.8 12.6 10.3 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 3.1 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.9 10.1 9.2 2.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 3.0 1.6 1.4 0.4 1.0 9.5 9.7 2.4 0.6 1.8 (0.1) 1.7 1.7 3.5 1.8 1.7 0.4 1.3 9.2 11.7 2.4 0.3 2.1 (0.0) 2.1 1.7 3.8 1.9 1.9 0.5 1.4 9.8 13.7 2.5 0.3 2.2 0.0 2.3 1.8 4.0 1.9 2.1 0.6 1.5 10.7 16.0 27.8 2.6 1.1 33.7 2.4 1.1 28.7 2.3 1.2 23.2 2.2 1.4 18.7 2.0 1.8 14.7 1.9 2.3 37.4 405.0 11.0 30.7 425.7 11.0 36.1 449.8 12.0 44.7 478.3 14.0 55.5 509.4 18.5 70.7 549.6 23.5 3.6 1.5 1.9 0.7 58.2 4.3 2.1 2.2 1.0 52.8 5.1 2.1 1.5 1.2 59.5 4.5 1.1 1.5 0.5 76.0 4.3 1.0 1.5 0.3 77.0 4.1 1.1 1.5 0.2 75.0 26.1 92.3 14.0 11.8 28.7 100.0 14.6 11.1 41.7 89.7 17.9 12.9 45.1 95.9 18.2 12.4 45.9 95.1 17.0 10.4 45.5 95.1 15.0 9.4 2.4 47.7 0.8 10.3 2.6 41.7 0.9 9.2 2.4 37.6 1.0 9.7 2.6 42.2 1.3 11.7 2.6 44.0 1.4 13.7 2.7 42.9 1.5 16.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

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ICICI Bank | 1QFY2012 Result Update

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

ICICI Bank No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

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