Afghanistan Weekly War Update: Security Forces Targeted in Helmand

August 2, 2011 | 1223 GMT STRATFOR

Security Forces Attacked in the South

On July 31, a suicide car bomber attacked the Helmand police headquarters in Lashkar Gah at 8:30 a.m. local time. The attack occurred at the gate of the headquarters as police forces arrived for work in the morning. A provincial spokesman said that the explosion most likely occurred between two police cars. The attack killed 12 policemen and one child and injured 12 other people. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement to media by a spokesman. Laskhar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, is one of the seven locations where local forces began taking control of security starting July 17 (Lashkar Gah was transferred to local control July 20). Attacks like this are not entirely preventable, and we expect attacks targeting security forces to continue as the Taliban and Afghan forces vie for control of the south. The struggle could intensify as the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) begins its drawdown, leaving increasing responsibilities in the hands of Afghan forces, and particularly in the wake of the assassinations of Wali Karzai, Jan Mohammad Khan and the mayor of Kandahar. The Talibans first priority is to take advantage of the vacuum being created by the drawdown of Western forces in the south. Attacks against Afghan forces are an attempt to cripple the Karzai administration, first by undermining the influence Kabul has developed in the south over the last decade or so, and second by preventing Afghan government forces from trying to assume greater responsibility for security. In doing this, the Afghan insurgent movement hopes to create conditions conducive to a comeback in the south, especially in Kandahar, the movements birthplace.

Progress in the East?

On July 31, U.S. Adm. Mike Mullen stated that progress was being made on the eastern Afghan border against the Haqqani network. Mullen said that it is now more difficult for the Haqqani network to penetrate the jet stream, a reference to the porous Pakistani-Afghan border and the unrestricted movement of militants across the rugged terrain. Improved conditions on one side of the border do not necessarily imply improved conditions on the other. Additionally, military pressure along the border does not alter the borders fundamentally problematic nature.

Mullens assertion comes less than a month after the former ISAF commander, U.S. Gen. David Petraeus, announced a shift in the focus of the war from Helmand and Kandahar to an area along the Pakistani-Afghan border that is home to the Afghan Taliban (led by the Haqqani network), al Qaeda leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyars Hizb-i-Islami, the Salafist Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban rebel forces as well as Pakistan-based Taliban elements waging war in Afghanistan. On July 21, a raid led by ISAF troops in Paktika province resulted in the capture of 80 militants who were most likely associated with the Haqqani network. The militants that were arrested in the raid were primarily Pakistani Pashtuns. Over the past two months, cross-border attacks between Pakistan and Afghanistan have intensified, leading to greater tensions between the governments as each side blamed the other, even though the Karzai regime and Islamabad have grown closer in the past year. These attacks are an indication of the militant safe havens on both sides of the border that continue making drawdown plans for the United States and NATO difficult. The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Korengal and Pech Valley has already given many militant groups space to operate and resulted in a greater likelihood of attacks not just in Afghanistan but across the border in the northern rim of Pakistans tribal belt and the district of Dir in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province.

Diplomatic Talks
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry announced July 30 a scheduled meeting between officials from Pakistan, Afghanistan and the United States to be held Aug. 2 in Islamabad. This is the fourth such meeting among these governments and will include U.S. Special Envoy Marc Grossman, Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawid Lodin and Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir as well as representatives from the military and intelligence communities from all three countries. It is noteworthy that this meeting will occur in Islamabad. It is unclear if Pakistan is really being given a role in a peace settlement or if it is a political move by the United States to ease its strained relationship with Pakistan. The debate within Washington about how to deal with Pakistan in the context of the Afghan strategy will likely continue to create problems between the Americans and the Pakistanis for some time.

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