Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ONGC
(Rs293 Buy) Target price Rs338
Cairn India
(Rs354 Buy) Target price Rs384
GAIL
(Rs464 Buy) Target price Rs572
GSPL
(Rs102 Buy) Target price Rs130
Petronet LNG
(Rs125 Hold) Target price Rs116
BPCL
(Rs606 Hold) Target price Rs562
HPCL
(Rs352 Sell) Target price Rs298
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
ONGC
(Rs293 Buy) Target price Rs338
Cairn India
(Rs354 Buy) Target price Rs384
GAIL
(Rs464 Buy) Target price Rs572
GSPL
(Rs102 Buy) Target price Rs130
Petronet LNG
(Rs125 Hold) Target price Rs116
BPCL
(Rs606 Hold) Target price Rs562
HPCL
(Rs352 Sell) Target price Rs298
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Stock views.......................................................................................................................5 Surging under-recoveries A dj-vu for oil PSUs .....................................................6 Oil PSUs are back to square one....................................................................................7 E&P, the key valuation driver .........................................................................................9 Energy demand growth in India on a long-term trajectory ..........................................9 but rising dependence on oil imports needs to be curbed.........................................10 East coast development, a major boost through D6.....................................................12 Midstream players Defensive bets............................................................................14 Acceleration in gas production requires supporting infrastructure................................14 Gas transmission infrastructure shaping up for increased supplies .............................16 Downstream gas trading margins to be under pressure...............................................18 LNG imports to surge, but pricing an issue...................................................................18 Domestic gas preferable for incremental demand ........................................................19 CGD demand potential to take 4-5 years to fructify......................................................20 GRMs and Petchem spreads to be robust ..................................................................21 GRMs to improve ..........................................................................................................21 Auto fuels to drive product demand ..............................................................................21 Light-heavy spreads to trigger complex premiums .......................................................23 Significant change in Petchem outlook .........................................................................25 Indias petrochemicals business to outperform.............................................................29 Annexure 1: Disruption in MENA props high crude price regime ............................31 Libya unrests escalate ..................................................................................................31 Support from Saudi Arabia spare capacity? .................................................................31 Algeria adds to the tension ...........................................................................................32 Developments in other MENA regions..........................................................................33 Positive impact on GRMs..............................................................................................34 Annexure 2: NELP transformed India into an attractive E&P destination ...............35 Favourable fiscal policies support strong investments .................................................37 Annexure 3: Index of Tables and Charts .....................................................................39
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COMPANIES
Reliance Industries ........................................................................................................41 ONGC ..............................................................................................................................65 Carin India.......................................................................................................................83 GAIL...............................................................................................................................103 Gujarat State Petronet .................................................................................................121 Petronet LNG ................................................................................................................137 BPCL .............................................................................................................................153 HPCL .............................................................................................................................169 Annexure 4: International financial reporting standards Impact on oil & gas sector ............................................................................................................................183 Likely impact on Indian companies uncertain........................................................... 183
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Stock views
Company Reliance Industries Reco Target price Buy CMP Upside Target price ONGC Buy CMP Upside Target price Cairn India Buy CMP Upside Target price GAIL Buy CMP Upside Target price GSPL Buy CMP Upside Target price Petronet LNG Hold CMP Upside Target price BPCL Hold CMP Upside Target price HPCL Sell CMP Upside 1,197 1,035 16% 338 293 15% 384 354 8% 572 464 23% 130 102 27% 116 125 (8%) 562 606 (7%) 298 352 (15%) Price to Book Price to Book, EV/Boe DCF DCF SOTP DCF, EV/Boe SOTP SOTP Valuation Methodology Comments E&P valuation concerns addressed to a major extent by the BP deal Strong refining and Petchem margins outlook Cash rich balance sheet provides multiple avenues of growth Strong reserve accretion potential Sustained RoEs despite high subsidies Attractive valuations at 7.6 x FY13E earnings Reserve accretion potential from Rajasthan Block Peak production will held leverage lower operating cost Royalty risk in the price, hence the stock offers an excellent risk-reward Dominance in gas transmission to continue, expansion to add significant value Possible triggers from Petchem expansion in high-margin environment Valuation indicate attractive risk-reward Ramp up in D6 volumes to benefit GSPL Scope of expansion in Gujarat for power and fetiliser client New pipeline if found commercially viable adds to target price Spot volume led profit expansion unsustainable Kochi terminal utilisation threatened by surging LNG prices Valuations capture the best case, hence risk-reward unfavourable Significant long-term triggers from E&P business possible Rising under-recoveries threaten short-term profitability Upsides from Bina refinery commissioning in the price High contribution from marketing business a major threat Bhatinda refinery commissioning, the only short-term positive Valuation hinges entirely on Government support, strong sell in current environment
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90 80 70 60 50
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Government
Upstream
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
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Tweaking the tax structure. The overall contribution of the oil companies in the form of taxes, royalties and profit petroleum is far higher than the under-recoveries of OMCs (Table 2). As these under-recoveries are ultimately borne by the Government either directly (in the form of cash and oil bonds) or indirectly (subsidy contribution from upstream oil PSUs), there is no rationale for ad-hoc contribution from the upstream oil companies. In FY09, >70% of the contribution from the oil companies was in the form of excise and sales tax, a reduction in which would have been sufficient to reduce or completely provide for the under-recoveries. However, as sales tax reduction would be a hard bargain considering its a state subject, hence requires consent of the state governments the central Government could achieve the same through excise reforms. But we havent seen any initiative for change in the excise structure in this years union budget, which is a concern
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000 Billion Mnte Mn te Mn te barrels cubic oil oil eqv. oil eqv per day meters equivalent 1997 1,828 22.3 135.9 2.3 15.9 1998 1,963 24.5 136.1 2.6 18.9 1999 2,134 25.1 135.8 2.9 18.6 2000 2,254 26.4 144.2 3.6 17.4 2001 2,284 26.4 145.2 4.3 16.3 2002 2,374 27.6 151.8 4.4 15.5 2003 2,420 29.5 156.8 4.1 15.7 2004 2,573 31.9 172.3 3.8 19 2005 2,569 35.7 184.4 4 22 2006 2,580 37.3 195.4 4 25.4 2007 2,748 40.2 212.9 4 27.7 2008 2,882 41.4 231.4 3.5 26.2 2009 2,982 42.0 245.8 3.8 24.0 Source: BP Statistical Review 10
In 10, where the global economy was expected to stutter and global demand growth to slow down, India has continued its growth trajectory with its share of global primary energy consumption going up. The Indian Government has set a sustained GDP growth target of over 9% in the near future. Historically, Indias energy growth to GDP growth ratio has stood at ~0.7 (Table 4). With GDP growth target of 9%+ in the next few years, Indias energy demand is likely to grow at ~6% (a correlation of ~0.7). This, coupled with the current global economic scenario, which has hit demand in some of the major developed countries, should see Indias share of global energy consumption rising to 5% in the next few years.
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Gross domestic product at constant (1999-00) prices 1,508,378 1,573,263 1,678,410 1,786,526 1,864,301 1,972,606 2,048,286 2,222,758 2,388,768 2,616,101 2,871,118 3,129,717 3,389,484 C.A.G.R. GDP growth rate % 4.3 6.68 6.44 4.35 5.81 3.84 8.52 7.47 9.52 9.75 9.01 8.30 6.43 Ratio 1.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7
Based on above, as per investment projections, Indias energy sector would need US$120-150bn worth of investments in the next few years to meet the demand growth.
10
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2010E 4.1 3.2 0.9 0.9 2.3 71.9 2012E 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.9 2.5 73.5
The discovery of Mangala oil field (in Rajasthan by Cairn India) has been touted as Indias biggest after ONGCs Mumbai High discovery, back in 1981. Production from the Mangala oil field is expected to touch the peak of 240,000bpd equivalent to the current oil production from Mumbai High in the next three years. In spite of Mangala oil field pitching in full pelt, India would still need to import ~70% of its 3.2mbpd oil requirement. We therefore expect Indias E&P investments to continue to be more focused towards garnering oil producing assets either organically or inorganically. Rajasthan remains a strong hope for India in terms of further oil reserves. Also, RIL has announced some oil discoveries in the KG and the Cambay basins, which offer some of the best potentials for expansion of domestic oil production. We believe that the company may deploy its excess cashflow, primarily in acquiring E&P assets (predominantly oil) as well as accelerating the development of its oil discoveries.
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Oil production 495,996 151,731 118,013 22,967 6,353 4,398 344,265 300,041 44,224 73,373 72,860 513 214,694 130,694 2,004 367 125,000 3,323 84,000 784,063 282,425 501,638
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Egypt_Western Desert Australia_Eromanga US (GoM Deepwater)_East Gulf Coast Australia_North Carnarvon Egypt_Nile Delta Angola_Lower Congo US (GoM Deepwater)_West Gulf Coast Argentina_Neuquen Netherlands_Southern North Sea Pakistan_Indus Nigeria_Niger Delta India_Krishna - Godavari Algeria_Illizi - Ghadames India_Cambay Mexico_Salinas - Sureste Norway_Northern North Sea China_North China Oman_Rub al Khali Turkey_Thrace Indonesia_South Sumatra
13
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14
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15
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16
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Source: PNGRB
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LPG
Naphtha
Contracted LNG
Spot LNG
RIL - KG D6
PMT
APM
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
18
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Delay in volume ramp-up of the KG D6 gas will lead to a surge in LNG imports to India over the short term, primarily in the form of term contracts and spot volumes from regasification terminals on the west coast. The 10-20mmscmd shortfall in D6 gas (vis--vis targeted production of 80mmscmd in FY12E and FY13E) provides India an opportunity to fill this gap through LNG import. The key target for procuring LNG would be the Middle East countries, primarily Qatar, where major portion of incremental capacities are coming up. As per the table below, LNG supplies are expected to be in surplus over the next four-five years, which provides India enough leeway to capture the new LNG contracts. However, the constraint would be spare re-gasification capacities available domestically and the increasing costs of spot LNG and term contracts. Currently, Petronets Dahej and Shells Hazira are the only LNG terminals operating with the combined capacity of 13.6mmtpa (can be lower since Hazira is unable to operate at its full capacity). The Dabhol LNG terminal is expected to be commissioned in 11 with a 5mmtpa capacity, but will initially operate at around 2mmtpa. Hence, throughout 11, the available spare LNG re-gasification capacity would be around 2.5-3mmtpa, which represents a potential supply of 10-12mmscmd. Table 11: Global LNG demand-supply
(MMT) Region Asia Pacific Europe Middle East North Africa North America South America West Africa Total LNG Demand Asia Pacific Europe North America South & East Africa South America Total Surplus/(Deficit) Source: Wood Mackenzie 2010 62 3 57 23 1 12 16 174 2011 67 3 70 23 0 14 18 195 2012 67 3 73 24 0 14 19 199 2013 66 3 73 26 0 14 21 202 2014 67 3 73 27 0 14 22 206 2015 77 3 73 31 0 14 22 221 2020 85 3 73 32 0 12 22 227 2025 68 3 73 32 0 7 18 201
90 45 26 0 2 163 11
98 51 33 0 3 185 9
105 53 32 0 3 193 6
108 53 29 0 3 194 8
116 56 20 0 3 195 12
124 60 19 0 3 207 13
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varies significantly with the type of feedstock and fuel used. As shown in the following chart, the cost of production is the lowest with natural gas. The Government of India has, therefore, given top priority to fertiliser sector in the allocation of KG D6 gas. Chart 8: Cost of producing urea through different fuels
800 700 600 500 (US$/te) 400 300 200 100 0 RIL.gas RIL.gas RIL.gas RIL.gas Fuel oil Fuel oil Fuel oil Naptha Naptha Naptha Naptha Fuel oil
2008-09
Source: Industry
2009-10P
2010-11P
2011-12P
Currently, there are 21 gas-based urea plants (with an aggregate capacity of 19mnte) and four other plants (with cumulative capacity of 4.0mt) based on naphtha and fuel oil. The Government has mandated all fuel oil and naphtha-based plants to switch over to natural gas. However, due to non-availability of pipeline connectivity, there will be some delay in switching over to gas-based platform at these remaining plants.
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(US$/bbl)
8 6 4 2 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
21
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125
(quadrillion Btu)
100
75
50 2007
Source: EIA
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
HSD (Gas oil) would be the key demand driver for refining products in the next 20 years, with its share in the petroleum demand expected to rise to >30%, while that of the gasoline slated to decline (Chart 11). The incremental push for middle distillates is clearly coming in from Asian economies such as India and China. In these countries, diesel finds a strong industrial use other than for transportation. The other strong demand driver for diesel in Asian countries is expected to be the robust growth in car sales, as consumers in this region have a preference for low-cost diesel variants as this fuel is more subsidised there. Chart 11: Product-wise demand growth
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2009 2030 2015
Ethane/LPG
Jet/Kerosene
Gasoil/Diesel
Gasoline
Naphtha
22
Residual fuel
Other
Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Table 12: Robust passenger car sales growth
Cars per 1000 2007 2010 2020 North America 575 555 581 Western Europe 442 436 462 OECD Pacific 428 437 484 OECD 490 482 513 Latin America 133 138 163 Middle East & Africa 27 31 41 South Asia 10 12 26 Southeast Asia 50 57 88 China 22 30 80 OPEC 58 59 80 Developing Countries 34 39 64 Russia 207 200 296 Other trans. Economies 158 176 239 Transition economies 178 186 262 World 123 124 147 Source: OPEC, World Oil Outlook, 2010 2030 601 489 517 540 187 52 50 127 147 106 96 379 302 332 174 2007 261 238 86 585 55 22 15 32 30 22 177 29 31 60 821
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Cars million 2010 2020 259 295 238 259 88 97 585 651 60 78 27 45 20 48 38 64 41 114 24 38 209 388 28 39 35 47 62 86 856 1,126 Car growth % p.a. 2007-2030 1 0.7 0.7 0.8 2.5 5 8.7 5.1 9 4.4 5.8 2.1 2.9 2.5 2.5
2030 326 277 101 704 98 68 104 100 214 59 642 47 59 106 1,452
(US$/bbl)
16 12 8 4 0 (4)
Oct-03
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-11
23
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(mn bl/d)
5 4 3 2 1 0
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Oct-10
Note: Bloomberg figures vary with IEA figures which put effective spare capacity, excl. Libya at 4.08mb/d. Source: Bloomberg, the February 11 number for spare capacity excludes Libyas spare capacity
(US$/bbl)
12 8 4 0 (4) (8)
Oct-09
Oct-10
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-11
Source: Bloomberg
(%)
79 76 73 Q1FY10
Q2FY10
Q3FY10
Q4FY10
Q1FY11
Q2FY11
Q3FY11
24
Apr-11
Feb-11
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
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Asian demand
1.7% 400 350 300 250 (MMT) 200 150 100 50 0 -1.6% 9.2% 7.1% 6.6%
3.2%
1.8
(MMT)
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
25
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2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
However, most of the incremental capacities coming up in the Middle East are expected to be absorbed by the demand growth in Asia. As per CMAI estimates, incremental Poly-Ethylene (PE) demand in China and India is expected to be at least 10.4mmtpa in the next two years, enough to absorb incremental capacities coming up in the Middle East assuming 80% utilisation. Chart 18: Ethylene demand trend
60 50 40 30 (MT) 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2000
Source: CMAI
12 10 8 6 (%) 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
2005
2010
2015
26
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However, the trigger for Petchem margins is expected to come when demand growth from the US and Europe resumes in the next two years, expected to be at 4.2mmtpa. We see a possibility of re-rating of Petchem business if the margins fall in line with the forecast. Back home, RILs recent margins do justify this argument to some extent. Chart 19: Middle East PE capacity addition
9 8 7 6 (mmt) 5 4 3 2 1 0 May-08 May-09 May-10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Nov-08 Nov-09 Mar-10 Nov-10 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Jan-11 Delays helped keep the market tight in 2009 Current View 2008 View
Source: CMAI
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Source: CMAI
China Asia
2005
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 2012
2013
2014
As the Middle East capacities are predominantly based on low-cost gas-based feedstock, they enjoy a significant advantage over crackers in other regions. The cost advantage for non-integrated crackers world over would fade on the back of supplies from the Middle East. This could also lead to possible capacity shutdowns, especially in high-cost regions such as North America and Europe.
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Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Chart 22: Ethylene production cash costs Operating costs lowest in the MiddleEast
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Source: CMAI
(US$/MT)
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-11
29
Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Chart 24: Domestic polymer demand growth
20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% PP PE All Polymers PVC Industry 9M FY11 (YoY)
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Chart 25: Domestic chemical demand growth
15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% PBR Benzene LAB BD Industry 9M FY11 grow th (YoY)
12.9%
9.5%
10.7%
+1.1% 2008
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
30
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Angola, 0.41 Ecuador, 0.04 Nigeria, 0.50 Algeria, 0.14 UAE, 0.30 Qatar, 0.08 Kuwait, 0.35 Venezuela, 0.19
Iran, 0.35
Source: Bloomberg
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However, Saudi Arabia has never produced >9.6mb/d (maximum in July 08). Hence, their ability to make up for Libyas shortfall completely can be suspected. Also, Saudi Arabias capability to tap into its spare capacities in the short term has not been tested. Chart 28: Saudi Arabia Oil production
10.0 9.5 9.0 (mn bpd) 8.5 8.0 7.5 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Saudi Arabia Production
Source: Bloomberg
32
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Source: Bloomberg
Yemen
0.28
33
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China 11%
Source: EIA
34
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The NELP has resulted in reducing the unexplored area from 89% to 15%.
Continued liberalisation Improved terms & large discoveries Emergence of Indian Private Companies (Reliance) & reinvigorated PSUs NELP Rounds Expected Accretion rate?
20
10
ONGCs major discoveries 6 Fields e.g. Enron, Command/Caim Niko & Hardy 1847 1980 1991 1999 Recent Exploration success Reliance / GSPC / ONGC / Caim
0 1880 2009
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Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Table 14: Blocks offered under the NELP
Blocks offered Deepwater Shallow Onland PSC signed Deepwater Shallow Onland Area awarded (sq km) Percentage of acreage awarded (%) Planned investment (US$ mn) Source: Infraline, I-Sec Research NELP I 48 12 26 10 24 7 16 1 1,94,735 7.4 1,150 NELP II 25 8 8 9 23 8 8 7 2,63,050 8.5 775 NELP III 27 9 7 11 23 9 6 8 2,04,588 6.5 1,038 NELP IV 24 12 1 11 20 9 1 10 1,92,810 6.1 1,135 NELP V 20 6 2 12 20 6 2 12 1,15,180 3.7 917
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NELP VI 55 25 6 24 52 21 6 25 3,06,200 9.7 3,317 NELP VII 57 29 9 19 41 11 7 23 1,17,000 3.6 1,700 NELP VIII 70 24 28 18 36 8 13 15 60,200 1.9 3,900
Despite one of the biggest gas discoveries at the KG D6, Indias share of global gas reserves stands at an insignificant 0.6%. Its share of global oil reserves also comes in at just 0.5%. To achieve energy security, the Government is willing to encourage more investments in the sector; we believe India is at the beginning of a huge wave of E&P investments. Table 15: India still a minnow in the global E&P stage
(bn bbls) Oil: proved reserves Australia Brunei China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Other Asia Pacific Total Asia Pacific Total World of which: European Union # OECD OPEC Non-OPEC Former Soviet Union Canadian oil sands Proved reserves and oil sands Source: BP statistical review 2010 1989 3.1 1.2 16 4.3 5.1 3.7 0.2 0.1 0.9 34.7 1,006.4 7.7 116.4 763.2 175.8 67.3 NA NA 1999 4.7 1.3 15.1 5 5.2 5 0.4 1.8 1.4 39.9 1,085.6 9.0 93.3 831.9 166.4 87.2 163.3 1,248.9 2008 4.2 1.1 14.8 5.8 3.7 5.5 0.5 4.7 1.4 41.7 1,332.4 6.1 91.3 1,028.8 180.6 123.0 143.3 1,475.7 2009 4.2 1.1 14.8 5.8 4.4 5.5 0.5 4.5 1.3 42.2 1,333.1 6.3 90.8 1,029.4 180.9 122.9 143.3 1,476.4 % of total 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 3.2 100.0 0.5 6.8 77.2 13.6 9.2 R/P ratio 20.7 17.6 10.7 21.1 11.8 20.4 3.8 35.7 11.2 14.4 45.7 8.2 13.5 85.3 14.7 25.5
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Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Table 16: Gas reserves India versus world
Natural gas: Proved reserves Australia Bangladesh Brunei China India Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Pakistan Papua New Guinea Thailand Vietnam Other Asia Pacific Total Asia Pacific Total World of which: European Union OECD Former Soviet Union Source: BP statistical review 2010 1989 TCM 1.0 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 9.5 122.4 3.4 15.6 47.1 1999 TCM 2.0 0.3 0.4 1.4 0.6 2.6 2.5 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 12.1 148.6 4.0 14.3 50.9 2008 TCM 3.1 0.3 0.4 2.5 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 16.0 185.3 2.5 16.4 57.5
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2009 TCM 3.1 0.4 0.4 2.5 1.1 3.2 2.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 16.2 187.5 2.4 16.2 58.5 % Share of total 1.64 0.19 0.19 1.31 0.59 1.70 1.27 0.30 0.48 0.24 0.2 0.36 0.19 8.66 100.00 1.29 8.6 31.2 R/P ratio 72.7 18.0 30.7 28.8 28.4 44.3 38.0 49.4 23.9 * 11.6 85.2 20.9 37.0 62.8 14.1 14.4 84.2
Type of system Contractor take (%) Royalty (%) Cost rec. limit (%) Access to gross revenue (%) Govt. Carry (%) Ring fence (%) Source: DGH
37
Oil&Gas sector, April 4, 2011 Chart 32: Framework PSC fiscal terms
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Production Value
Cost Petroleum
Contractors share
Income Tax
Contractors Take
Source: DGH
38
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Charts
Chart 1: RoE comparisons of oil PSUs.................................................................................6 Chart 2: Under-recoveries Contribution from oil PSUs and the Government....................7 Chart 3: Acreage holdings in KG Basin blocks (dominated by ONGC and RIL) ................13 Chart 4: Reserve additions in the KG Basin .......................................................................13 Chart 5: Worlds top exploration provinces (1999-2009) by number of discoveries ...........13 Chart 6: Pipeline infrastructure in India...............................................................................17 Chart 7: Price comparison KG-D6 gas vis--vis LNG......................................................18 Chart 8: Cost of producing urea through different fuels......................................................20 Chart 9: Global GRM trends over the year .........................................................................21 Chart 10: Global Petroleum liquids consumption by end-use sector..................................22 Chart 11: Product-wise demand growth .............................................................................22 Chart 12: Arabs and Maya crude spreads ..........................................................................23 Chart 13: OPEC spare capacity..........................................................................................24 Chart 14: Product spreads over Brent ................................................................................24 Chart 15: Refinery utilisation rates inching up ....................................................................24 Chart 16: Demand for basic chemical & plastics ................................................................25 Chart 17: Ethylene capacity addition ..................................................................................26 Chart 18: Ethylene demand trend.......................................................................................26 Chart 19: Middle East PE capacity addition........................................................................27 Chart 20: PP demand-supply dynamics .............................................................................28 Chart 21: Expected consumption pattern of propylene ......................................................28 Chart 22: Ethylene production cash costs ..........................................................................29 Chart 23: Naphtha cracks ...................................................................................................29 Chart 24: Domestic polymer demand growth .....................................................................30 Chart 25: Domestic chemical demand growth ....................................................................30 Chart 26: Overall domestic plastics and chemicals demand trend.....................................30 Chart 27: Spare capacity ....................................................................................................31 Chart 28: Saudi Arabia Oil production .............................................................................32 Chart 29: OPEC production ................................................................................................33 Chart 30: Crude exports from Libya....................................................................................34 Chart 31: Indias exploration history and outlook (in-place reserves).................................35 Chart 32: Framework PSC fiscal terms ..............................................................................38
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40
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
Reliance Industries
On a cyclical upturn
Reason for report: Reinitiating coverage
BUY
Rs1,035
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 29.0 28.2 MFs and UTI 2.7 2.1 FIs/ Banks 0.3 0.3 FIIs 17.9 17.5 Others 24.5 25.3 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 46.5 Sep 10 46.5 Dec 10 46.5 29.2 2.4 0.3 18.3 24.3
Price chart
1,175 1,125 1,075 (Rs) 1,025 975 925 875 Nov-10 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-10 Mar-11 Apr-10
Reliance Industries (RIL) valuations will be led by its traditional businesses, refining and petrochemicals. Global refining margin will likely be robust (RIL US$11/bl in FY13E) as product demand from Asia surges and European and the US markets stabilise. In petchem, the demand drivers from emerging markets are expected to be strong enough to absorb incremental capacities from the Middle East. E&P will also chip in as key concerns have been addressed through the British Petroleum (BP) deal, indicating a strong bottom for its E&P valuations at US$24bn. We value RIL at Rs1,197 on sum of the parts (SOTP), which yields 15% upside from the current levels. We reinitiate coverage on RIL with a BUY and view it among one of the best value picks in the oil & gas sector. Refining GRM outlook supports our bullish view. We expect refining to contribute significantly to profitability. The recent revival in global GRMs will improve with positive demand drivers from the developed economies. RILs GRMs will likely be robust at current levels (US$11/bl in FY12E-13E), in tandem with the rise in benchmark Singapore GRMs. Improvement in light-heavy spreads and setting up of a petcoke gasification unit can provide further upside to RILs GRMs. We value refining at 7x FY13E EV/EBITDA, implying Rs458/share fair value for the segment. E&P BP deal assuages valuation concerns. The BP deal has valued RILs 23 E&P blocks (30% stake acquired) at US$24bn, indicating a bottom for its E&P valuations. The concerns on volume ramp-up in KG D6 still continue, but the deal has generated strong expectations that such issues will be resolved soon. We, however, continue to expect that D6 production will peak at 87mmscmd by endFY13E, in line with the recent comments from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG). We value E&P at Rs354/share, almost in line with the BP deal. Strong portfolio of exploratory blocks and BPs technical expertise can lead to significant reserve upside from most KG Basin blocks. Petrochemicals Margins to be stable. We expect RILs petchem margin to be robust at the current levels till now, margins have surpassed Street estimates. The industry now expects incremental low-cost ethylene capacities to be comfortably absorbed by the strong Asian demand, specifically from China and India. RILs predominantly domestic focus is a key advantage, which will ensure >95% petchem utilisation. RILs planned capacity expansion is expected to result in significant valuation trigger as it is expected to start during a potentially higher margin scenario. Reinitiate with BUY. Increased contribution from the high-margin oil & gas business along side gradual expansion in refining and petchem margins would drive RILs EPS over FY11-13E. Reinitiate with BUY.
Market Cap Reuters/Bloomberg Shares Outstanding (mn) 52-week Range (Rs) Free Float (%) FII (%) Daily Volume (US$/'000) Absolute Return 3m (%) Absolute Return 12m (%) Sensex Return 3m (%) Sensex Return 12m (%) Rs3,389bn/US$76bn RELI.BO/RIL IN 3,273 1,187/841 54.5 18.3 131,670 (1.9) (8.1) (5.6) 8.3 Year to Mar Revenue (Rs bn) Net Income (Rs bn) EPS (Rs) % Chg YoY P/E (x) CEPS (Rs) EV/E (x) Dividend Yield (%) RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY10 2,037 159.0 48.0 113.9 21.6 81.1 11.3 0.7 9.2 13.2 FY11E 2,233 203.1 61.3 27.8 16.9 96.2 8.2 0.7 10.8 13.4 FY12E 2,568 248.4 75.0 22.3 13.8 111.3 7.4 0.7 11.4 13.6 FY13E 2,648 266.8 80.6 7.4 12.8 121.3 6.7 0.7 11.5 12.9
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Refining GRM outlook supports our bullish view ...................................................43 Room for further premium expansion ...........................................................................43 Refining to contribute significantly to overall valuations ...............................................45 Refining Valuation assumptions.................................................................................46 Valuations highly sensitive to GRMs.............................................................................46 E&P BP deal assuages valuation concerns .............................................................47 BP deal creates a bottom for E&P valuations...............................................................47 Volume ramp-up schedule still unclear .........................................................................48 Key issues yet to be resolved .......................................................................................49 E&P valued at US$24bn ...............................................................................................49 Key assumptions for DCF KG D6 block.....................................................................50 Strong portfolio of exploratory blocks offer high reserve accretion potential ................50 Petrochemicals Margins to be stable .......................................................................53 Strong domestic demand & integration, key differentiators ..........................................53 Contribution from petchem at Rs294/share ..................................................................54 Expansion projects, revival of off-gas based crackers Next big trigger .....................55 Valuations .......................................................................................................................56 Profitability expansion to drive valuations .....................................................................56 Reinitiate with BUY .......................................................................................................56 Rising cash reserves to be invested into core businesses ...........................................57 Key risks to our call .......................................................................................................58 Annexure 1: Consolidated financials...........................................................................59 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts .....................................................................63
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Note: Average yearly GRMs, for 11 till March 31, 11 Source: Reuters
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Reliance Industries, April 4, 2011 Chart 2: Light-heavy spreads Light-heavy spread expected to rise further because of the MENA region unrest
28 24 20 (US$/bbl) 16 12 8 4 0 (4) Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Light-Heavy (Arab) WTI Vs Maya
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Mean (Arab) Mean (WTI-Maya)
Oct-09
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-10 Q3FY11
Source: Bloomberg
A key long-term catalyst to trigger the expansion of RILs premium over benchmark Singapore complex GRM is RILs petcoke gasification project (commissioning planned at the Jamnagar refining complex). Post the commissioning of the project (expected in three years), the Nelson complexity of the Jamnagar complex will likely increase beyond 14 (from 12.8 for the 62mntpa combined capacity), leading to higher spreads over benchmark Singapore margins. We await more clarity in the next 2-3 months, after which we will factor it in our valuations. Chart 3: RILs premium over Singapore Complex GRM RILs premium over Singapore complex can retest previous highs
15 12 (US$/bbl) 9 6 3 0 Q1FY09 Q2FY09 Q3FY09 Q4FY09 Q1FY10 Q2FY10 Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 RIL's GRM Singapore Complex GRM
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Reliance Industries, April 4, 2011 Chart 4: OPEC spare capacity Reduction in OPEC spare capacity due to MENA unrest could add more heavy crude supplies in the market
8 7 6 (mn bl/d) 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10
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Oct-10
Note: Bloomberg figure varies with IEA figures which put effective spare capacity, excl. Libya at 4.08mb/d Source: Bloomberg, February 11 number for spare capacity excludes Libyas spare capacity
Feb-11
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
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Reliance Industries, April 4, 2011 Table 3: Valuations for international peers Refinery
(Rs mn, Year ending March 31) EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E/ FY13E/ CY11E CY12E Valero Energy Corp 4.64 4.52 S-Oil Corp 9.58 8.79 Sunoco Inc 7.90 6.62 Cosmo Oil 6.42 5.91 Thai Oil PCL 8.00 7.52 Tesoro Corp 4.80 4.54 Frontier Oil Corp 5.29 5.85 Motor Oil Hellas Corinth Refineries SA 6.22 5.94 New Zealand Refining 6.39 5.91 Chennai Petroleum 4.64 4.52 Average 6.58 6.18 Source: Bloomberg, I-Sec Research P/BV (x) FY12E/ FY13E/ CY11E CY12E 1.05 0.95 3.22 2.74 1.72 1.59 0.68 0.64 2.13 1.93 1.13 0.97 2.41 2.14 2.26 2.00 1.05 1.84 1.98 1.86 0.95 1.64
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P/CF (x) FY12E/ FY13E/ CY11E CY12E 5.17 4.94 12.14 10.98 8.77 6.99 2.86 2.64 8.22 7.95 4.93 4.37 7.43 8.30 5.48 7.08 5.17 6.90 4.92 6.33 4.94 6.38 P/E (x) FY12E/ FY13E/ CY11E CY12E 10.51 8.90 12.84 11.75 25.50 16.98 9.09 8.10 12.42 11.77 12.27 10.73 10.83 11.85 8.14 12.70 10.51 12.70 7.54 10.86 8.90 10.94
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BP deal valuations
Assuming that the value is generated through all the 23 prospective blocks, including D6, RILs net stake in these blocks post this transaction would average at 66.7%. Grossing up the entire valuation based on cash consideration of US$7.2bn, the value attributable to RIL would be US$23.2bn. If we include the discounted value (over 10 years) of US$1.8bn cash incentives, the overall valuations stand at US$23.8bn. Table 5: BP valuation for RILs 23 blocks
(US$ bn) RIL's average stake in the blocks before the deal (%) RIL's average stake in the blocks after the deal (%) Cash payment for 30% stake by BP Gross valuation for these 24 blocks Net value for RIL Add cash Total value for RIL Performance linked cash incentive Discounted value of incentives over 10 years Net value for RIL incentives Source: I-Sec Research 97 67 7.2 24 16.0 7.2 23.2 1.8 0.6 23.8
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BP stake (%) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 10 Hardy (%) Niko (%) 10 10 10
15
10
10
Cambay Onland Upper Assam Basin Kerala Konkan Total Source: RIL, BP plc
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EV/boe multiple DCF and EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple
EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple EV/boe multiple
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Gross prospective resources * GCoS(%) 305 993 1,044 1,126 273 3,743 Net to RIL (BCF) 183 595 626 675 164 2,246
RILs share (%) 60% 60% 60% 60% 60% Total (bcf)
GCoS: Geological Chance of Success Source: GCA competent Person Report, Hardy Oil
D9 block Disappointing drilling results. D9 is a deepwater block in the KG Basin covering 11,605 sqkms of area. RIL holds 60% in the block, while BP and Hardy Oil hold 30% and 10% respectively. RIL has started phase II exploration work in the block and has till date drilled two wells. Both the wells failed to deliver any significant hydrocarbon potential and were abandoned. The resource estimates on the Hardy Oil website have been significantly reduced to 4.7tcf from 10.8tcf (estimated in 09). It is unclear what strategy will RIL adopt as an operator for further drilling programme in this block, to maximise the commercial potential of the block. Table 9: D9 reserve estimates
(BCF) Gross prospective resources Prospects C1 Pliocene Northern Anticline (NW Flank B1)/U. Miocene Central Anticline (NW Flank)/U. Miocene Central Anticline (Near B3)/U. Miocene Southern Anticline (SE Flank C1) /U. Miocene Northern Anticline B1/M. Miocene Central Anticline (Near B2)/M. Miocene Southern Anticline C1 /M. Miocene Northern Anticline (near B1)/L. Miocene Central Anticline (Near B2)/L. Miocene Central Anticline (Near A2)/L. Miocene Low estimate 210 900 400 1,000 1,100 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,800 1,300 900 Best estimate 630 2,500 1,100 2,500 2,900 2,500 1,900 1,900 6,300 2,800 2,300 RIL's share High (%) GCoS (%) estimate 1,540 60 25% 5,600 60 20% 2,100 60 20% 5,300 60 20% 6,200 60 10% 4,500 60 20% 2,700 60 20% 2,600 60 15% 15,000 60 15% 5,500 60 19% 4,900 60 15% Prospective Total (bcf) Leads (bcf) Prospective + Lead (bcf) Gross prospective resources GCoS (%) 158 500 220 500 290 500 380 285 945 532 345 4,655 35.0 4,690 Net to RIL (BCF) 95 300 132 300 174 300 228 171 567 319 207 2,793 21 2,814
GCoS: Geological Chance of Success Source: GCA competent Person Report, Hardy Oil
Coal-bed methane blocks. RIL has a portfolio of five coal-bed methane (CBM) blocks awarded in the past three rounds. The company plans to begin production from the Sohagpur CBM block by end-11 and expects a peak production of 5mmscmd from these blocks over the next two-three years (Table 10). Table 10: Reserve estimates of CBM blocks
Block CBM (five blocks) Sohagpur west Sohagpur east Sonhat North Barmer 1 Barmer 2 Total Source: DGH Stake (%) 100 100 100 100 100 In place reserves (mboe) 233 308 213 598 552 1,904
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International blocks Still in the initial stages of exploration. RIL has a portfolio of 11 international blocks with 80,000 sqkms acreage distributed across Yemen (three blocks), Oman (two blocks), Kurdistan (two blocks), Colombia (two blocks), East Timor (one block) and Australia (one block). A block in Yemen is the only producing block, with oil production of 4,500bpd (Table 11). Table 11: RILs portfolio of international blocks
Block Block K Block 9 Block 18 Rovi Sarta Block 41 Block 34 Block 37 W-06-05 Borojo North Borojo South Block 39 Block 108 Block 141 Source: Company Country East Timor Yemen Oman Kurdisthan Kurdisthan Oman Yemen Yemen Australia Columbia Columbia Peru Peru Peru Location Deepwater Onland Deepwater Onland Onland Deepwater Onland Onland Shallow water Deepwater Deepwater Onland Onland Onland Acreage 2,384 2,234 21,140 516 607 23,850 7,016 6,894 5,760 4,000 4,000 8,903 12,000 5,169 Operator RIL Calvalley RIL RIL RIL RIL RIL RIL RIL RIL RIL Repsol Plus Petro RIL
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12.9%
9.5%
10.7%
+1.1% 2008
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
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Reliance Industries, April 4, 2011 Chart 6: Domestic polymer demand growth RIL enjoys dominance in the fast-growing polypropylene segment
20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% PP PE All Polymers PVC Industry 9M FY11 (YoY)
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Chart 7: Domestic chemical demand growth
15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% PBR Benzene LAB BD
FY13E 703,222 2.28 125,508 17.85 88,586 12.60 125,508 878,553 294
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EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/CF (x) PE (x) FY12E/ FY13E/ FY12E/ FY13E/ FY12E/ FY13E/ FY12E/ FY13E/ CY11E CY12E CY11E CY12E CY11E CY12E CY11E CY12E 13.47 12.94 2.30 2.23 12.78 12.82 11.80 11.20 11.93 14.29 1.28 1.21 6.40 11.37 8.55 12.00 7.84 7.04 3.37 2.67 11.31 9.66 12.78 11.32 4.53 4.41 1.17 1.08 5.37 5.05 13.10 11.06 8.61 7.87 1.58 1.44 7.59 7.10 17.39 15.39 4.37 4.20 1.11 1.04 6.23 5.90 13.52 11.98 6.25 5.93 1.30 1.18 4.37 4.30 14.85 12.36 7.06 6.56 0.75 0.73 3.12 3.16 11.44 13.64 13.47 12.94 2.30 2.23 12.78 12.82 11.80 11.20 8.01 7.91 1.61 1.45 7.15 7.42 12.93 12.37
SABIC Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical LG Chem Asahi Kasei Toray Industries Inc Kuraray Teijin Mitsui Chemicals Honam Petrochemical Average Source: Bloomberg
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Valuations
Profitability expansion to drive valuations
Increased contribution from the high-margin oil & gas business along side gradual expansion in refining and petchem margins would drive RILs EPS CAGR to 24% over FY10-13E. Led by the divestment of 30% stake to BP in its 24 key E&P blocks, RILs refining business will continue to contribute the most to overall EBIT in the next 2-3 years and will likely touch a peak of 42% in FY13E as the companys GRMs expand to US$11/bl. Also, petchem capacity expansion, post FY14, will likely lead to increased contribution from the segment to overall EBIT. Therefore, the cyclical upturn in the refining and petrochemicals businesses is critical for RILs valuation expansion, while E&P would continue to provide cashflow expansion triggers for the company. Table 15: Segment-wise EBIT contribution
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Petrochemicals % total Refining % total Oil & Gas % total Others % total Total Source: I-Sec Research FY10 85,520 43.12 58,270 29.38 54,130 27.29 430 0.22 198,350 FY11E 85,152 29.52 99,125 34.37 103,849 36.00 320 0.11 288,445 FY12E 83,220 24.86 139,679 41.72 111,497 33.30 400 0.12 334,796 FY13E 88,586 25.36 148,421 42.48 111,887 32.03 480 0.14 349,374
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Comment FY13E EV/E of 7x FY13E EV/E of 7x FY13E EV/E of 7x Total investments made till date
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11x 9x 7x 5x
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1,124,261 48,557 38,489 30,176 33,725 36,616 33,805 1,278,019 234,222 56,510 19,142 19,142 196,854 18,163 178,691 -
1,546,027 56,430 31,408 27,909 44,526 34,338 12,179 1,728,458 308,939 109,458 21,858 21,858 221,339 20,596 200,743 86,056
1,684,208 42,678 32,481 26,320 46,760 25,046 1,857,493 375,698 115,597 28,344 28,344 288,445 33,758 254,688 -
1,983,273 36,769 32,541 27,205 46,928 24,524 2,151,241 417,057 120,203 37,941 37,941 334,796 24,447 310,349 -
2,020,248 42,395 32,603 28,340 48,596 24,035 2,196,217 451,424 134,948 32,898 32,898 349,374 16,395 332,979 -
12,734 16,454
31,249 11,314
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FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY Borrowings Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Total Borrowings Deferred Tax Liability Share Capital Paid up Equity Share Capital No. of Shares outstanding (mn) Face Value per share (Rs) Minority Interest Reserves & Surplus Share Premium General & Other Reserve Less: Misc. Exp. not written off Less: Revaluation Reserve Net Worth Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
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20,599 20,599
39,775 39,775
35,216 35,216
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Charts
Chart 1: GRM trend.............................................................................................................43 Chart 2: Light-heavy spreads..............................................................................................44 Chart 3: RILs premium over Singapore Complex GRM.....................................................44 Chart 4: OPEC spare capacity............................................................................................45 Chart 5: Domestic demand for basic chemicals and plastics .............................................53 Chart 6: Domestic polymer demand growth .......................................................................54 Chart 7: Domestic chemical demand growth ......................................................................54 Chart 8: Rolling Price/EPS trend.........................................................................................58 Chart 9: Rolling EV/EBITDA trend ......................................................................................58
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Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
ONGC
Value buy
Oil&Gas and Petrochemicals
Target price Rs338
BUY
Rs293
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 12.3 12.4 MFs and UTI 2.3 2.3 FIs/ Banks 5.7 5.4 FIIs 4.2 4.6 Others 13.6 13.5 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 74.1 Sep 10 74.1 Dec 10 74.1 12.3 2.1 5.5 4.7 13.6
Price chart
375 350 325 (Rs) 300 275 250 225 Aug-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-10 Apr-10 Jan-11
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Daily Volume (US$'000) Absolute Return 3m (%) Absolute Return 12m (%) Sensex Return 3m (%) Sensex Return 12m (%)
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
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ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Strong reserve accretion potential ..............................................................................67 Domestic blocks Upside to reserves likely.................................................................67 Potential triggers from KG-DWN-98/2...........................................................................68 Low success rate, a concern ........................................................................................69 Volume triggers beyond FY13 ......................................................................................71 Excellent defensive play ...............................................................................................72 Subsidies have limited impact on profitability ...............................................................72 Improved profitability led by APM dismantling ..............................................................72 Cashflows support aggressive capex ...........................................................................73 Valuations .......................................................................................................................74 Value buy ......................................................................................................................74 Key risks to our call .......................................................................................................75 International comparison...............................................................................................75 Annexure 1: Financials (consolidated)........................................................................77 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts .....................................................................81
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3 8 2 24 16 53
1 8 3 1
13
ONGC had a lower success rate of 41%, mainly due to high number of blocks under exploration
ONGC has been able to maintain a reserve-replacement ratio (RRR) of >1 in the past five years. This has been due to investments in international blocks through OVL and more recently the acquisition of Imperial Energy. The companys current RRR at 1.74 (including the imperial acquisition), based on 3P reserve estimates though, offers some comfort on production growth visibility. However, the RRR is high due to lack of development in some major discoveries. We expect this to change due to better rig availability. ONGC would now be able to accelerate its drilling and development programme, primarily for its blocks in the east coast. In the next 1-2 years, as some of these fields start producing, the decline in overall production will be arrested and will help drive growth. ONGCs KG Basin gas discovery (block KG DWN 98/2) holds tremendous potential. Although the Director General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) has approved 3.2tcf gas reserve as the potential, industry sources expect it to be higher. ONGC has also associated oil discoveries in the other shallow water blocks in the KG basin, from which it expects to start oil production in 11. However, oil production from these discoveries will result in only a marginal increase in production and would more or less arrest the decline in its ageing fields on the west coast (Mumbai High).
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FY07
FY08
FY09
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FY10
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Low success rate, a concern
ONGCs average success rate over the past seven years has been at ~41%, lower than its PSU peer Oil India (OIL) at 57%, as more blocks come under ONGCs exploration programme, making it difficult to manage rig procurements on time, especially for offshore shallow and deep water blocks. Therefore, ONGC has struggled to meet its minimum work programme (MWP) commitments for many blocks, resulting in cost over-runs and relinquishment of prospective blocks. The company has drilled 780 wells in the past seven years, 10x more than OIL and higher than any other domestic private company. Table 2: Status of wells drilled
(number of wells) Year Wells drilled 2002-03 150 2003-04 124 2004-05 109 2005-06 106 2006-07 87 2007-08 98 2008-09 106 Total 780 Source: Infraline Hydrocarbon-bearing wells 66 51 43 45 32 50 32 319 % of Hydrocarbon-bearing wells 44.0 41.1 39.4 42.5 36.8 51.0 30.2 40.9
Recently, ONGC addressed rig availability concerns by hiring three deepwater rigs for the long term. The current scenario of high spare capacity in jack-ups offers ONGC a good opportunity to accelerate its drilling programme. ONGC had acquired UK-based Imperial Energy with assets in Western Siberia, Russia, in FY09. Imperial was acquired at US$1.9bn (Rs42/share for ONGC shareholders), at an EV/boe of US$2.06. Given the risks associated with reserve development in Russia and the unfriendly Russian tax regime, the lower multiple for the acquisition is well justified. Current production of Imperial Energy is at 18,000bopd and will likely rise to >45,000bopd in the next 3-5 years. Chart 2: Reserve accretion trend (3P)
90 80 70 60 (mn te) 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Mumbai High Other 63 fields Total Domestic gas (mmtpa) Mumbai High Other 63 fields Total Total Oil Equivalent Uncertified reserves Domestic JV Total
Absolute change 1P 2P 3P 66.8 761.5 582.2 (191.6) (190.1) 15.8 (124.8) 571.5 598.1
OVL Fields audited 1,311.4 2,557.6 2,847.5 Not audited 14.6 404.9 418.8 Total OVL 1,326.1 2,962.5 3,266.3 Consolidated total 6,976.5 10,319.7 12,137.9 Source: Company data; recent reserves audit
1,246.1 2,492.3 2,760.2 14.6 404.9 418.8 1,260.8 2,897.2 3,179.0 6,691.8 10,893.2 12,749.4
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We expect ONGCs volume growth to be 1-2% in FY12E-13E as production from new fields in Brazil, Russia and KG Basin primarily neutralise the production decline from existing fields. Volume expansion for ONGC would kick-in from FY14. ONGC expects production from OVL (the Caraboco project in Venezuela) to be at 40,000bl/day initially (which will fund most of the development costs of US$19bn for the block). Post the development project, the production is expected to scale up to 400,000bl/day. Table 4: Sales volume assumptions
(MMT) Crude oil Natural Gas (BCM) LPG Natural Gasoline / Naphtha Crude oil (US$/bl) Net realisation post subsidies (US$/bl) Source: Company data, I-Sec Research FY09 22.879 20.533 1.029 1.544 88.5 45.8 FY10 22.330 20.598 1.108 1.598 69.9 54.5 FY11E 22.553 20.712 1.130 1.630 86.8 56.8 FY12E 22.779 21.033 1.153 1.663 100 62.2 FY13E 23.234 21.454 1.176 1.696 100 62.3
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A key positive for PSU upstream companies is that their returns continue to be strong despite varying levels of under-recoveries. In FY09, when the subsidy contribution was the highest for ONGC at US$36/bl, its RoE was still stable at 20% (Table 7). Going forward, in FY12E-13E, we expect ONGCs subsidy contribution to be at its highest, at US$43/bl. Despite this, we expect ONGC to maintain stable RoE of 2223%, highlighting the excellent defensive nature of ONGCs profitability. The stock, therefore, is a value play, especially in a scenario of high crude price and subsidies. Profitability is expected to improve as oil production from OVL (insulated from subsidies) improves in the next 3-4 years. Gas production from the companys KG blocks would also help expand the companys RoEs. Table 7: Key ratios and subsidies
Y/E March ONGC's share (Rsmn) ONGC's share (US$mn) Sales (mn bl) US$/bl RoCE (%) RoE (%) Net realisation post subsidy (US$/bl) Source: Company data, I-Sec Research FY09 319,996 7,054 165.0 42.8 17.1 22.8 45.8 FY10 143,681 3,030 161.0 18.8 15.0 20.1 54.5 FY11E 258,615 5,580 162.6 34.3 18.4 23.9 56.8 FY12E 323,565 7,034 164.2 42.8 19.2 24.5 62.2 FY13E 328,742 7,147 167.5 42.7 18.3 22.7 62.3
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Cashflows support aggressive capex
ONGCs consolidated balance sheet enjoys a steady cashflow visibility and zero leverage. With an estimated cash balance of >US$9.2bn in FY13E, the company is well placed to capitalise on organic and inorganic expansion opportunities. The regulatory delays associated with being a PSU company are the only major hindrance for ONGC for tracing a path of aggressive growth. Table 9: Cashflow overview
(Rs mn) Operating cashflow Working capital changes Capital commitments Free cashflow Source: Company data, I-Sec Research FY10 378,882 18,956 (347,883) 30,999 FY11E 427,091 (36,874) (386,114) 40,977 FY12E 510,810 6,250 (342,035) 168,775 FY13E 529,155 2,369 (301,266) 227,889
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Our fair value for ONGC implies a multiple of 5.9x FY13E cash earnings, after capturing in Rs323bn subsidies based on the average Brent crude price of US$100/bl in FY12E-13E. Our fair value is derived based on a 5x FY13E cash earnings, at a 30% discount to global peers and then adding value of its investments and reserve upsides. We believe that a discount to international peers is justified based on the uncertainty associated with the subsidy sharing mechanism and companys inability to undertake aggressive inorganic growth opportunities. Our fair value still offers a 24% upside, which indicates the CMP capture the worst case for the company, and hence we believe the stock is an excellent value pick. We prefer using a cash-flow multiple, considering ONGCs matured production portfolio and steady capex in the next 5-10 years. The cashflow method provides an ideal comparison parameter with international peers, nullifying the impact of variable depreciation and depletion structures and tax structure. Also, given the lack of clarity on production profile and PSC for many of the companys domestic and international blocks, valuing the company using DCF becomes difficult. Table 10: Valuations
(Rs mn) Consolidated Cash earnings Equity value (@ 5x) Core value (Rs/share) Probable reserves Value of holdings Total Reserves - 2P (mmboe) Implied EV/boe Source: I-Sec Research 491,130 2,455,650 287 24 27 338 10,320 6.1
ONGC will likely enjoy a potential reserve upside of Rs24/share or 2.2bboe over its current reserve base of 10.2bboe. We have valued these reserves at US$2/boe, assuming a sharp discount to our implied multiple of US$6.1/boe. Table 11: Probable reserves valuations
Probable reserves (mmboe) Valuation multiple (US$/boe) Probable reserves value (US$ mn) Probable reserves value (Rs mn) Probable reserves value (Rs/share) Source: I-Sec Research 2,255 2.0 4,511 202,988 24
ONGCs implied EV/boe multiple of 6.1x at our fair value indicates a sharp discount to global average of 17x, reflecting the negative impact from uncertain subsidy sharing. This discount can reduce if the Government can formulate a subsidy sharing mechanism that can yield strong visibility to ONGCs cashflows.
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ICICI Securities
Key risks to our call
Sharp variation in Brent prices, which can influence Governments policy, and skew it towards or against upstream players as far as the subsidy calculations are concerned
80 285 90 312 100 338 110 363 120 386
Implementation of any major reforms like a subsidy sharing formula or diesel deregulation can be a major upside risk Major changes in estimation of hydrocarbon reserves in the companies E&P blocks can have a significant impact on the valuations. Change in government levies like Cess or Royalty for the blocks that the company is currently producing from can have a major impact on valuations Especially for the Rajasthan block operated by Cairn (ONGC 30% stake). We have not factored any valuation upside in case the royalty is made cost recoverable this would be a positive for ONGC
International comparison
Table 13: Global E&P Valuation comparison
E&P companies Rosneft Oil Co CNOOC Ltd EnCana Corp Canadian Natural Resources Ltd Woodside Petroleum Ltd Apache Corp Anadarko Petroleum Corp Devon Energy Corp EOG Resources Inc Chesapeake Energy Corp Southwestern Energy Co PTT Exploration & Production PCL Murphy Oil Corp Oil India Ltd Cairn India Ltd Average Source: Bloomberg P/CF (US$) FY12/CY11 5.69 7.60 6.39 8.12 13.93 5.44 6.71 7.09 7.45 5.12 9.42 7.13 5.47 8.09 7.00 7.38 FY13/CY12 6.01 7.20 5.72 6.56 9.71 4.95 5.67 5.89 5.79 4.68 7.41 5.97 5.00 7.05 6.15 6.25
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ICICI Securities
P2 reserves (mmboe) 21,803 24,809 12,093 25,188 10,545 10,695 221,700 6,502 2,124 8,310 3,363 2,893 13,029 3,897 1,046 8,557 1,537 US$ EV/boe 16.72 17.34 23.64 6.22 20.27 15.32 1.04 21.37 48.27 15.39 26.01 31.74 5.33 20.89 29.64 5.47 21.39 19.18
6x
6x 5x
3x 2x
76
289,746 167,335 58,932 1,469 11,619 99,883 628,985 39.9 416,899 154,304 50,721 313,316 2,385 310,931 763 4,464 111,056 3,501 3,747 99 197,953 192,726
253,390 158,131 64,511 1,347 14,071 82,601 574,050 43.6 443,496 187,188 52,728 309,035 5,022 304,013 401 176 95,757 11,558 3,319 78 194,035 193,458
360,577 180,312 81,714 2,041 16,576 78,590 719,811 42.7 535,342 158,706 27,649 404,284 15,467 388,817 110,648 17,310 1,518 78 259,419 259,419
360,876 202,324 83,609 2,221 17,037 80,412 746,480 44.9 607,321 159,830 31,026 478,517 15,455 463,062 133,058 19,874 1,331 78 308,876 308,876
361,191 210,705 86,230 2,268 17,626 81,794 759,814 45.4 632,322 159,825 38,867 511,365 14,175 497,190 144,032 20,647 1,284 78 331,305 331,305
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ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
21,389
21,389
42,778
42,778
42,778
78
ICICI Securities
(376,045) (331,093) (386,114) (342,035) (301,266) 10,018 (16,790) (366,027) (347,883) (386,114) (342,035) (301,266) (28,666) 30,999 40,977 175,917 238,800
50,721 50,721
52,728 52,728
27,649 27,649
31,026 31,026
38,867 38,867
(2,922) 24,950 (10,000) (15,000) (82,198) (100,894) (117,110) (122,742) (1,120) 3,618 (8) (2,349) (86,240) (72,326) (127,118) (140,091) 401 (2,113) (3,700) 79,825 137,577
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ICICI Securities
80
Charts
Chart 1: Increasing reserve replacement............................................................................68 Chart 2: Reserve accretion trend (3P) ................................................................................69 Chart 3: Rolling price/EPS trend .........................................................................................76 Chart 4: Rolling EV/EBITDA trend ......................................................................................76
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82
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
Cairn India
Risk-reward favourable
Oil&Gas and Petrochemicals
Target price Rs384
BUY
Rs354
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 17.9 17.7 MFs and UTI 2.3 1.5 FIs/ Banks 4.9 5.3 FIIs 10.6 10.8 Others 19.7 19.9 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 62.4 Sep 10 62.4 Dec 10 62.3 18.1 1.6 5.6 10.8 19.7
Price chart
380 360 340 (Rs) 320 300 280 260 Aug-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-10 Apr-10 Jan-11
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
83
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Rajasthan Royal gains for Cairn ...............................................................................85 Rajasthan blocks Strong execution track record .......................................................85 Crude sales from Rajasthan supported by pipeline advantage ....................................86 Vedanta deal Outcome uncertain..............................................................................88 Vedanta Group Lower gearing makes the acquisition viable.....................................89 Rajasthan blocks to yield high profitability ................................................................91 Cairn enjoys one of the lowest lifting costs ...................................................................91 Strong cashflows...........................................................................................................92 Improved profitability .....................................................................................................93 Valuations .......................................................................................................................94 Implied valuation gap offers opportunity .......................................................................94 Reinitiate with BUY .......................................................................................................94 EV/boe comparison indicates undemanding valuations ...............................................95 Key risks to our call .......................................................................................................96 Annexure 1: Financials (consolidated)........................................................................97 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................101
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ICICI Securities
Mangala Bhagyam Aishwarya Total Saraswati & Raageswari Oil - STOIIP Total 20 additional discoveries, including Barmer Hill Oil STOIIP GAS STOIIP Total 35+ prospects resources Total Government is yet to approve; Source: Company data
Gross Initial Reserve in Place mboe 2010 2008 % chg 1,293 1,206 7.2 468 557 (16.0) 293 281 4.3 2,054 2,044 0.5 78 2,132 2,044 4.3
Table 2: Reserve estimate upgrade in the past three years (2P) Cairn has revised 2P reserves for its Rajasthan block by 51% in 2010, thereby making a case for future upgrades
Blocks 2P+2C Mangala Bhagyam Aishwarya Saraswati & Raageswari Oil Total MBA EOR Barmer Hill + Other Risked prospective resources Total * Government is yet to approve; Source: Company data Gross Reserve, Resources & Potential (mboe) 2010* 2008 % chg 477 418 14.1 151 140 7.9 66 56 17.9 8 50.0 12 706 622 13.5
308 0 0
930
51.0
Mangala 125,000 150,000 Bhagyam 40,000 40,000 Aishwarya 10,000 20,000 Others 30,000 Total 175,000 240,000 *Government is yet to appove this incremental production; Source: Company data
% chg
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ICICI Securities
CB/OS-2
Ravva
2022
2024
86
ICICI Securities
Mangala
Radhanpur
Kandla
Viramgam
Jamnagar/Salaya Bhogat
Koyali
RJ-ONN-2003/1 RJ-ON-90/1 CB-OS-2 Ravva GS-OSN-2003/1 MB-DWN-2009/1 KK-DWN-2004/1 KG-DWN-98/2 KG-ONN-2003/1 KG-OSN-2009/1 PR-OSN-2004/1 SL 2007-01-001
Rajasthan Rajasthan Cambay Gujarat Mahanadi Kerala - Konkan Krishna Godavari Krishna Godavari Krishna Godavari Palar Basin -
Net Production Operator (bpd) ENI India 87,500 Cairn India 5,392 Cairn India 9,161 Cairn India Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC) -
Status / Plan
1-3 exploratory wells Two exploration wells Appraisal & exploration plans Well GSA-1 plugged & abandoned 300 sqKms of 3D acquisition is being planned. Two appraisal wells 10 Five prospects identified - Two wells drilled 3D 800Kms Two completed in Q1CY10; drilling in 11 The 3D seismic data has been processed. Drilling to commence soon
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ICICI Securities
88
ICICI Securities
79.4%
70.5%
54.6%
94.5%
55.7%
29.5%
Sterlite Industries (India) Limited (Listed on BSE, NSE and NYSE Copper Business)
3.1%
51.0%
64.9%
100%
100%
2NOV201016450883
Source: Company
The Vedanta Group has access to debt facility of up to US$6.5bn to fund its 40-51% stake buyout in Cairn India. The open offer by Sesa Goa for a further 20% stake can be funded through Sesa Goas US$3bn cash reserves (56% subsidiary of Vedanta). If Sesa Goas open offer is not fully subscribed, the company can purchase shares from Vedanta plc to reach 20%. As per estimates from the Vedanta Group, the companys consolidated net gearing post the deal would be below 25% in FY11E, indicating balance sheet strength. Table 6: Indicative financials for Vedanta post deal
(US $ mm) Net Debt/EDITDA (x) Vedanta FY 2010 947 2,296 0.4 Pro forma FY 2010 11,030 2,459 4.5 1,2 <2 Pro forma FY 2011E 1,2 <1 Pro forma FY 2012E Note: 1 Pro-forma for Vedanta Group and Cairn India, 2- Vedanta estimates Source: Vedanta Presentation Net Debt EBITDA Net Gearing (%) 8 37 <25 <20
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ICICI Securities
Table 8: Balance sheet highlights
(US$ mn)
Total assets Total debt Cash plus investment Net debt Total shareholders equity Net debt to equity (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
Aluminium 14%
Copper-Zambia 19%
Source: Company, Bloomberg
Zinc 19%
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ICICI Securities
Global Integrated Oils Small U.S. E&Ps 2006 2007 2008 2009
Cost advantage will translate into higher EBIT levels at US$60/bl in FY13 viz-a-via global average of US$1215/bl
Based on low cost structure, we estimate Cairn to enjoy among the highest EBIT realisations at US$60/bl in FY12E, well above the global average of US$25-30/bl. As the company expands its production in the next 2-3 years, the cost structure will improve. This will provide Cairn with a sustainable cost advantage over peers, which is crucial, especially during a low crude price scenario. This cost advantage will ensure that the company would enjoy higher P/CF multiple compared with peers, once the peak production threshold is crossed. We, therefore, consider Cairn to be an excellent long term bet.
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ICICI Securities
50 40 (US$/boe) (US$/boe) (US$/boe) (US$/boe) 30 20 10 0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Lifting Costs
Strong cashflows
Strong cashflow generation of US$2.5bn likely from FY13, giving financial muscle for aggressive exploration activities We expect Cairn to generate steady cashflow of US$2.5bn from FY13E. High incremental cashflows provide Cairn a strong bandwidth to aggressively explore in prospective basins. As is true for any exploration company, cash generation ultimately decides the risk-taking abilities as regards exploring frontier basins and generating maximum returns. Post FY11, Cairn would aggressively expand its exploration activities to diversify its reserves portfolio outside Rajasthan. Table 10: Expected cashflows
(Rs mn) Operating cashflow Working capital changes Capital commitments Free cashflow Source: I-Sec Research FY09 6,632 4,460 (33,543) (23,908) FY10 2,562 (8,956) (49,169) (55,564) FY11E 57,159 (1,394) (25,832) 29,933 FY12E 151,337 (7,126) (22,395) 121,816 FY13E 145,243 (2,705) (12,680) 129,858
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ICICI Securities
Improved profitability
Improved profitability in the next two years is likely, followed by a drop from FY13 as profit petroleum kicks in As Cairns production expands, its profitability will likely improve in the next two years. However, once the profit petroleum component kicks in from FY13, it will drop. Post FY13, we expect Cairns profitability to be stable and to be contingent on the successful implementation of extended oil recovery (EOR) and expansion of peak production through additional contribution from other potential prospects. Hence, Cairns key strategy would be to continue to develop incremental discoveries in Rajasthan, which would require continuous infusion of capex. Table 11: Key ratios
(%)
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ICICI Securities
Valuations
We value Cairn on SOTP to capture its cashflows from the Rajasthan block and reserve upsides. Risk-reward is favourable at the current levels and Cairn is a superb long-term pick. We reinitiate coverage with BUY at Rs384/share target price.
Key assumptions
WACC at 13% EOR implementation from FY13; peak production with EOR for 10 years Long-term average brent at US$100/bl
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ICICI Securities
At our target price of Rs386/share, Cairn will trade at an EV/boe of ~12x, lower than the global average of 17x
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ICICI Securities
Crude Price (US$/bbl) 90 100 336 373 343 381 350 384 357 391 364 393
Brent (RHS)
Cairn
100 80 60 40 20 0
May-07 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Nov-10 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Mar-11 Jan-07
Source: Bloomberg
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ICICI Securities
2,698 5,945
11,910
1,485 4,077
12,534
4,921 733
69,008
12,822 1,997
156,110
13,460 4,862
169,573
64
11,846 1,179 (198)
148
12,386 2,085
2,641
66,367 221 -
1,961
154,149 202 -
680
168,893 171 -
1,811 623
8,035 9,462 9,411
2,216 (2,564)
10,649 12,886 12,734
11,964 (11)
54,193 56,579 54,414
26,904 (25)
127,069 128,889 127,270
29,330 (28)
139,420 140,153 139,590
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ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
1,713
1,713 84
17,124
17,124 166
17,124
17,124 478
17,124
17,124 766
17,124
17,124 1,010
Producing properties Less: Depletion Net producing properties Exploratory & Development assets
Total Fixed Assets Goodwill Total Assets LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Borrowings Long Term Debt Total Borrowings
Deferred Tax Liability Paid up Equity Share Capital No. of Shares outstanding (mn) Face Value per share (Rs)
Reserves & Surplus Share Premium General & Other Reserve Net Worth Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
309,057 328,023
377,211
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ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Less: Other Income Net Extra-ordinary income Other Adjustments Op Cash Flow before Working Capital change (a)
Changes in Working Capital (Increase) / Decrease in Inventories (Increase) / Decrease in Sundry Debtors (Increase) / Decrease in Operational Loans & Adv. (Increase) / Decrease in Other Current Assets Increase / (Decrease) in Sundry Creditors Increase / (Decrease) in Other Current Liabilities Other Adjustments Working Capital Inflow / (Outflow) (b) Current Tax/FBT paid(net of refunds) Net Cash flow from Operating Activities (a) + (b) as a % of Operating Cash Flow Cash Flow from Capital commitments Purchase of Fixed Assets Purchase of Investments Consideration paid for acquisition of undertaking Exploration & Development Capex Cash Inflow/(outflow) from capital commitments (c) Free Cash flow after capital commitments (a) + (b) + (c) Cash Flow from Investing Activities Other Income Other Adjustments Net Cash flow from Investing Activities (d)
4,077 2,979
2,562
733 315
58,055
1,997 288
137,580
4,862 244
147,746
(467) (168) 1,362 (570) 5,060 2,042 (2,801) 4,460 (1,458) 9,634
(33,758) (15,411)
(25,832) -
(22,395) -
(12,680) -
(49,169) (55,564)
(25,832) 30,831
(22,395) 110,398
(12,680) 130,021
4,077
4,077
733
733
1,997
1,997
4,862
4,862
Issue of Share Capital during the year Proceeds from fresh borrowings Dividend paid including tax Others Net Cash flow from Financing Activities (e)
Net Extra-ordinary Income (f) Total Increase / (Decrease) in Cash (a) + (b) + (c) + (d)+ (e) + (f) Opening Cash and Bank balance Closing Cash and Bank balance Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Bank balance Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
(2,000) (27,207)
(29,207) 2,357
(15,000) (63,635)
(78,635) 33,760
(17,007) (69,795)
(86,802) 48,081
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ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
71.3 83.5 2.2 2.2 26.7 74.7 54.3 67.2 (27.1) 0.0
52.7 63.0 2.1 2.1 29.6 68.2 54.1 (106.1) (12.2) 0.0
12.3 12.4 1.9 1.9 7.0 9.2 9.8 11.9 21.9 3.5
5.3 5.3 1.6 1.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.7 5.7 8.1
4.8 4.8 1.4 1.4 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.3 8.9
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ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Estimated production profile .................................................................................86 Chart 2: Mangala Salaya pipeline....................................................................................87 Chart 3: Vedanta Group Holding structure ......................................................................89 Chart 4: Revenue break-up.................................................................................................90 Chart 5: International lifting costs .......................................................................................91 Chart 6: International E&P cost structure ...........................................................................92 Chart 7: Cairn versus Brent crude ......................................................................................96
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102
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
GAIL
An ideal defensive play
Oil&Gas and Petrochemicals
Target price Rs572
BUY
Rs464
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 39.1 38.9 MFs and UTI 5.1 5.0 FIs/ Banks 1.1 1.2 FIIs 12.5 12.4 Others 3.1 3.2 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 57.8 Sep 10 57.9 Dec 10 57.9 39.0 4.9 1.3 13.0 3.1
Price chart
550 510 (Rs) 470 430 390 Oct-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-10 Apr-10 Jan-11
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
103
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Transmission GAILs supremacy to continue .......................................................105 Expansion spree to spur valuations ............................................................................105 Gas volumes to swell, led by on-track expansion.......................................................105 Pipelines Long-term earnings visibility provides an upper hand..............................106 Pipelines A cash cow ...............................................................................................106 New tariff regulations, a positive .................................................................................108 Petchem An ace up GAILs sleeve ..........................................................................109 Petchem margin to continue to be robust ...................................................................109 Higher subsidies to pressurise LPG..........................................................................110 CGD provides volume scalability in the long term...................................................110 E&P development long drawn ....................................................................................111 Valuations GAIL, an ideal defensive bet.................................................................112 Improved profitability from debt raising .......................................................................112 Key risks to our call .....................................................................................................113 Financials Transmission, the backbone.................................................................114 Annexure 1: Financials (consolidated)......................................................................116 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................120
104
23,580 13,150
31 35
Jagdishpur Haldia Pipeline Dhabol - Bangalore Pipeline Kochi - Koottanad - Mangalore / Bangalore Total Source: Company Presentation
32 16 16
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ICICI Securities
Pipelines Long-term earnings visibility provides an upper hand
GAILs transmission business offers good long-term earnings visibility, given the high entry barriers and the nascent stage of the domestic gas industry. GAILs 7,200Kms pipeline network connects most power and fertiliser units across the western and northern corridors in India. Due to limited gas availability and infrastructure constraints, customers once tied up would retain the supplier. This yields a first-mover advantage for GAIL and a sustained, long-term revenue source. Also, post the recently announced pipeline expansion plan, GAIL would operate across the 16,000Kms national pipeline grid, connecting all the major demand centres. Thus, most of the gas (produced domestically or imported) will have to use GAILs pipeline infrastructure.
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ICICI Securities
FY16 40 36 18 18 20 80 9 20 20 15 30 306 150 70 10 45.5 23.4 21 320 13.6 % share (FY16) 13.1 11.8 5.9 5.9 6.5 26.1 2.9 6.5 6.5 4.9 9.8
NANGAL
BHATINDA DELHI
Jhajjarr GURGAUN
JAISALMER
MATHANIA
AGRA
AURAIYA
KANPUR
LUCKNOW JAGDISHPUR
DISPUR PATNA
DVPL PH-II
BARMER GWALIOR
PHOOLPUR
KOTA
UJJAIN RAJKOT
AHMEDABAD
VARANASI
GAYA
AGARTALA
BOKARO
JABALPUR BHILAI
KOLKATA CUTTACK
DAMRA BHUBANESHWAR
HALDIAJAGDHISPUR P/L
MUMBAI
PUNE
RAJAMUNDRY
KRISHNAPATNAM KAKINADA
SOLAPUR
KOLHAPUR GOA
HYDERABAD
VIJAYAWADA NELLORE
BANGALORE
Transmission Pipelines
Existing Gas pipelines LPG Pipeline GAILs Planned Pipeline RILs East West Pipeline LNG Terminal
MANGALORE
CHENNAI
EWPL
KOCHI-KANJIKKOD-BANGALOREMANGALORE P/L
KANJIKKOD
COIMBATORE
TIRUCHCHIRAPALLI
KOCHI 5 mmtpa
TUTICORIN
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ICICI Securities
New tariff regulations, a positive
Tariffs based on PNGRB notifications for the existing pipelines have surprised on the upside
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) had notified Rs33.4/mmbtu average pipeline tariff for GAILs GREP/DVPL grid pipeline post expansion, which had come as a positive surprise compared to an earlier expectation of Rs30/mmbtu. This has indicated that regulations in general can offer a positive surprise compared to our calculations, due to lack availability of precise operating cost structure for individual pipelines. The tariff revision will be applicable post completion of the GREP expansion, scheduled by June 11. The PNGRB tariff notification is a positive for GAILs existing and upcoming GREP pipeline grid, as its a critical asset for GAIL transmitting ~80% of the companys current volumes. However, there is no clarity on the tariffs for new pipelines which will get commissioned in the next 2-3 years. Hence, we have factored in tariffs from them at the levels fixed for the DVPL-GREP upgradation, i.e., at ~Rs53.6/mmbtu. These regulations provide long-term visibility to GAILs cashflow, which leaves gas supply as the only concern that can hamper the companys valuation upside. However, with the recent optimism built in post the RIL-BP deal on the KG Basin gas volume ramp-up, this risk will gradually subside over the next 1-2 years. Table 5: Tariff recommendations as per PNGRB
(Rs/mmbtu) Particulars As per proposal of GAIL (levelised) Moderation/reduction by Board Inflation change to 4.5% against 5% Unaccounted gas not allowed Number of operating days changed to 355 days Volumes (divisor) considered as per regulation Corporate FBT disallowed O&M capex reduced to 70% Others Total moderation/reduction by Board Levelised tariff after moderations by the Board Existing levelised tariff Source: Company Presentation DUPL/DRPL 40.2 (0.6) (2.9) (1.0) (10.7) (0.0) (0.1) (0.3) (15.7) 24.5 26.1 Existing HVJGREP-DVPL 35.4 (0.5) (1.2) (2.8) (6.4) 0.9 (9.9) 25.5 25.5 0 53.65 53.65 DVPL-GREP upgradation
108
GAIL operates a gas cracker at Pata, Uttar Pradesh, which can produce 450,000tpa of ethylene. GAILs Board has recently approved plans to double the ethylene capacity at Pata to 800,000tpa in the next 3-4 years. Initially, the company plans to increase the capacity to 510,000tpa by the next year. We, however, exclude the expansion from our estimates as GAIL has not disclosed details on capex and timelines. Petchem valuations, in the next 4-5 years, can double as the Pata gas cracker expansion gets completed and the ethylene margin scenario improves; hence, Petchem can boost valuations multifold in the long term. Average ethylene product (hdPE/lldPE) realisations have risen along with the crude prices (though with a lag), led by global economic recovery. Going forward, we expect the impact of excess ethylene capacity additions globally (predominantly in the Middle East) to be muted as demand growth from the emerging markets should be strong enough to absorb global ethylene capacity addition (up to 26mmtpa additions expected). Also, GAILs Petchem profitability will always be higher than the industry average as it is purely gas-based. We expect GAILs Petchem operating margin to be +55% in the next 2-3 years versus the global average of ~25%. Table 6: Ethylene capacities
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Source: CMAI Capacity (MMT) 137 142 143 147 151 YoY chg 12.5 4.8 0.8 4.8 4.0 26.8 Demand (MMT) 115 119 123 130 136 YoY chg 4 4 7 6 21 Required Utilisation (%) 83.9 84.0 86.3 88.2 89.9
With gas being a primary feedstock for GAILs Petchem business and given the estimated robustness in hdPE/lldPE prices, we expect Petchem margin to be continue to expand from current levels of 55%. Accordingly, we estimate GAILs Petchem EBITDA to expand to Rs26bn levels by FY13E. We value the business at 7x FY13E EBITDA (at a marginal discount to global peers), which yields a fair value of Rs144/share. Table 7: Petchem Overview
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Revenue Revenue Growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) EBIT EBIT Margin (%) Source: I-Sec Research FY10 29,907 9.9 15,537 52.0 13,988 46.8 FY11E 37,927 26.8 21,519 56.7 19,969 52.7 FY12E 40,297 6.2 23,698 58.8 22,148 55.0 FY13E 42,668 5.9 26,039 61.0 24,488 57.4
109
GAILs LPG and liquid hydrocarbon business has run into tough terrain in the past few years, mostly due to the Governments ad hoc subsidy-sharing policy. GAIL operates a 1.3mmtpa gas-based LPG extraction unit, which is sold to PSU OMCs. However, because GAIL produces LPG, the Government has involved it in upstream subsidy sharing. The companys LPG business has been continuously impacted by subsidies, fluctuating between profits and losses in the past 4-5 years. Considering that the OMCs net under-recoveries will likely breach the Rs100bn mark in FY12E-13E in wake of the sharp crude price spike, we expect GAILs subsidy to rise to Rs25bn annually in the next two years. Going forward, we expect the LPG margin to decline, led by increased costs. We have valued the business at 6x FY13E EBITDA, which yields a fair value of Rs63/share. Table 9: LPG Overview
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Revenue Revenue growth (%) EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) EBIT EBIT margin (%) Source: I-Sec Research FY10 28,791 -3.16 7,435 25.82 6,589 22.88 FY11E 26,561 -7.75 6,033 22.71 5,170 19.46 FY12E 33,678 26.79 13,075 38.82 12,194 36.21 FY13E 33,903 0.67 13,300 39.23 12,402 36.58
110
We have valued E&P business Rs4.5/share, but has potential to add Rs16/share if we include the CBM blocks
GAIL, in consortium with exploration majors such as ONGC/GSPC, has diversified into the high-risk exploration business and has succeeded in some blocks. The company currently holds 10-80% participating interest in 30 exploration blocks (in different phases of exploration). These blocks are located in basins such as Mahanadi, Bengal, Gujarat-Saurashtra, Mumbai, Cambay, Assam-Arakan and Cauvery. The development in such businesses takes time and hence, is long drawn in nature. As is true with any E&P business, a significant discovery in any block can completely change the E&P valuations, which can exponentially raise fair value. We have factored in just GAILs net interest in Cambay and Myanmar blocks to ascribe Rs4.5/share (net) fair value to E&P. We have not factored in the CBM blocks as exact development plans have not been disclosed yet. However, inclusive of the CBM blocks, the overall value for E&P shoots up to Rs16/share. Cambay block. GSPC and GAIL have struck oil in the Cambay basin (Block CBONN-2000/1 recoverable reserve of 3.5mmbbl) and are currently in the production stage. The production is planned for 10 years and we have valued the block at Rs420mn (Rs0.10/share) CBM blocks. The GAIL consortium has been awarded three CBM blocks in the third round of CBM bidding in India recently (at Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand). GAIL's share in the above blocks is within 35-45% (net share of reserves at 127Bcm). We have valued the blocks at an EV/boe of 2x and a recovery of 35%, implying Rs11/share gross value. Myanmar blocks. GAIL has 10% stake in two blocks in Myanmar (Block A1 & A3), with an estimated in-place reserves of ~20Tcf (as per the Myanmar Government). At a 10% recovery factor and an EV/boe of 3x, its value stands at Rs9.1/share (gross value). Table 11: E&P valuations
Block Stake (%) 50 7.5 35 35 45 Reserves (mboe) 3.5 1,800 990 342 756 2,081 GAILs share (mboe) 0.4 55.35 121 42 111 286 Total discounted EV (Rsmn) 165 10,406 10,915 3,771 10,002 14,115 (6,472) 20,049 EV/boe (US$) 8.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 Value/share (Rs) 0.1 9.1 4.9 1.7 4.5 11.1 15.8
111
We reinitiate coverage on GAIL with a BUY rating At the current market price of Rs464, GAIL is trading at 12x FY13E earnings. Based on cash earnings, the company is attractively valued at ~9x FY13E CEPS. We have used SOTP, which yields Rs572/share value for GAIL we have valued each business separately, incorporating the value of GAILs investments in companies such as ONGC, Petronet LNG etc. At our 12-month target price of Rs572, GAIL would be trading at a comfortable 11.3x FY13E cash earnings. Even in a scenario of changing dynamics (surge in gas supply from the east coast), GAIL will continue to dominate domestic gas transmission and hence, is an ideal defensive play in the domestic oil & gas space. Reinitiate coverage with a BUY. Table 12: SOTP valuations
(Rs mn) Particulars Natural gas transmission (Existing pipelines) LPG transmission New pipelines (includes GREP expansion) Total EV of transmission business (A) Natural gas trading (B) LPG production business (C) Petrochemicals business (D) Total EV (D) 2.4% stake in ONGC 12.5% stake in Petronet LNG 22.5% stake in Indraprastha Gas Total portfolio stake (E) 8.45% stake in Myanmar A-1 block 50% stake in Cambay offshore block Possible write-offs in the next three years E&P value (F) Stakes in city gas distribution projects (India and abroad) (G) Firm value Less: Net debt (FY12E) Equity value Source: I-Sec Research Enterprise value 87,098 13,045 263,229 363,372 49,967 79,801 182,270 675,409 30,703 7,456 7,862 46,021 11,486 920 (6,462) 5,944 21,660 749,034 22,575 726,459 Rs/share 68.6 10.3 207.4 286.3 39.4 62.9 143.6 532.2 24.2 5.9 6.2 36.3 9.1 0.7 4.7 17.1 590.3 17.8 572.0 Method DCF DCF DCF 7x FY13E EBITDA 6x FY13E EBITDA 7x FY13E EBITDA 20% discount to market price 20% discount to market price 20% discount to market price EV/boe EV/boe
112
ICICI Securities
Traditionally, GAIL has avoided the debt route as earlier, the tariffs were annual RoEbased. On the other hand, the current tariff regulations, based on RoCE, incentivise high debt funding for incremental pipeline capex. GAIL has, therefore, rightly opted for an aggressive debt raising plan, based on which we expect its RoEs to improve markedly from the current 22% once the new pipelines start generating revenues post FY13. GAIL might witness a re-rating (as future cashflows indicate higher incremental returns) and a possible P/BV expansion (FY13E P/BV of 2.2x). Chart 2: Planned borrowings through FY11-13
100
75 (Rs bn)
50
25
0 FY11
Source: Company presentation
FY12
FY13
113
GAILs revenue growth would be primarily led by gas transmission volumes as the other businesses seem lacklustre at present. We expect the company to cross 150mmscmd volumes in FY13E, led by expansion in RILs KG D6 production to ~87mmscmd and incremental production from ONGC fields. Table 15: Revenue profile
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Gas transmission volumes (mmscmd) Tariffs (Rs/('000 scm) Gas transmission % Tot % grth LPG transmission % Tot % grth Petchem % Tot % grth LPG & LHC % Tot % grth Gas trading % Tot % grth Others (GAIL Telecom, E&P) % Tot Total % grth Source: I-Sec Research FY10 106.70 813.55 31,684 11.7 27.6 4,472 1.7 17.6 29,122 10.8 2.2 28,330 10.5 -4.5 188,029 69.5 2.7 533 0.2 282,170 4.4 FY11E 115.28 803.49 33,809 12.5 6.7 4,472 1.7 0.0 37,927 14.0 30.2 26,561 9.8 -6.2 242,368 89.6 28.9 972 0.4 346,108 22.7 FY12E 139.30 927.63 47,165 17.4 39.5 4,472 1.7 0.0 40,297 14.9 6.2 33,678 12.5 26.8 244,766 90.5 1.0 1181 0.4 371,559 7.4 FY13E 159.00 1,019.06 59,141 21.9 25.4 4,472 1.7 0.0 42,668 15.8 5.9 33,903 12.5 0.7 248,013 91.7 1.3 1211 0.4 389,408 4.8
Also, as gas transmission is a high-margin business, we expect GAILs EBITDA to grow faster to ~US$2bn by FY13E. Other businesses will continue to be a drag. Table 16: EBITDA contribution from businesses
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Gas transmission % Tot % sales Gas Trading % Tot % sales LPG transmission % Tot % sales Petchem % Tot % sales LPG & LHC % Tot % sales Others (GAIL telecom, E&P write-offs, etc) % Tot Total % grth Source: I-Sec Research FY10 23,792 54.58 75.09 4,038 8.65 2.15 3,422 7.85 76.53 14,667 33.64 50.36 7,435 17.06 26.24 (6,666) (15.29) 46,688 7.10 FY11E 25,610 58.75 75.75 7,089 11.56 2.92 3,477 7.98 77.75 21,519 49.36 56.74 6,033 13.84 22.71 (2,414) (5.54) 61,569 31.33 FY12E 36,097 82.80 76.53 7,091 8.74 2.90 3,477 7.98 77.75 23,698 54.36 58.81 13,075 29.99 38.82 (2,283) (5.24) 81,456 32.36 FY13E 46,406 49.33 78.47 7,138 7.59 2.88 3,477 3.70 77.75 26,039 27.68 61.03 13,300 14.14 39.23 (2,280) (2.42) 94,500 15.93
114
EV/ Share (Rs) (Rs) 100 100 0 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 200 0 400 500 600 700 800 900
100 Apr-02 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Apr-10 7x 2x Sep-10 Mar-11 1x 3x 11x 13x 9x 4x Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09
200
300
Apr-05
Jul-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Jul-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Jul-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
Jul-10
5x
Nov-10
12x 10x 8x
16x 14x
ICICI Securities
Mar-11
115
203,442 8,695 5,767 6,212 855 3,651 228,621 43,593 5,599 7,966 45,960 870 45,090 (2,013)
208,336 9,104 6,212 6,955 1,417 3,500 235,523 46,688 5,618 5,411 46,481 700 45,781 4
260,950 9,319 6,678 3,130 1,331 3,131 284,539 61,569 6,199 3,471 58,841 1,133 57,709 -
263,713 10,727 7,685 3,397 1,398 3,183 290,103 81,456 9,710 3,186 74,933 4,122 70,811 -
267,286 12,044 8,640 2,288 1,468 3,183 294,909 94,500 15,475 3,272 82,297 10,099 72,198 -
116
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
20,634 96 20,730
30,134 96 30,230
41,002 96 41,098
42,002 96 42,098
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY Borrowings Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Total Borrowings Deferred Tax Liability Share Capital Paid up Equity Share Capital No. of Shares outstanding (mn) Face Value per share (Rs) Reserves & Surplus Share Premium General & Other Reserve Net Worth Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
12,685 1,268 10
12,685 1,268 10
12,685 1,268 10
12,685 1,268 10
12,685 1,268 10
117
ICICI Securities
7,966 7,966
5,411 5,411
3,471 3,471
3,186 3,186
3,272 3,272
118
ICICI Securities
119
Charts
Chart 1: Pipelines GAILs expansion plans....................................................................107 Chart 2: Planned borrowings through FY11-13 ................................................................113 Chart 3: Rolling price/EPS trend .......................................................................................115 Chart 4: Rolling price/book trend ......................................................................................115 Chart 5: Rolling EV/EBITDA trend ....................................................................................115
120
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
BUY
Rs102
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 39.3 41.7 MFs and UTI 10.1 10.8 FIs/ Banks 5.7 6.2 FIIs 12.5 12.3 Others 23.0 20.5 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 37.7 Sep 10 37.7 Dec 10 37.7 42.0 11.4 6.8 11.3 20.3
Price chart
130 120 110 (Rs) 100 90 80 Nov-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Jun-10 Apr-10 Jan-11
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
121
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Gujarat, still a golden opportunity .............................................................................123 Volume rise in Gujarat to be led by domestic gas supplies ........................................123 Expanding horizons.....................................................................................................126 Upsides from new pipelines back-ended ....................................................................126 Financial overview .......................................................................................................129 Volume growth on track ..............................................................................................129 Debt raising to sustain RoEs.......................................................................................129 Valuations attractive....................................................................................................130 Reinitiate with a BUY ..................................................................................................130 DCF Key assumptions .............................................................................................130 Key risks to our call .....................................................................................................130 Annexure 1: Financials (standalone) .........................................................................132 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................136
122
ICICI Securities
Torrent
1583
7.9
Gujarat State Electricity Corporation Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) Source: Industry
375 2300
Total
5308
Major volume growth in Gujarat will come from Power and Fertilizer companies, priority sectors in terms of gas allocation
GSPL has benefited from RILs D6 gas production its transmission volumes have risen to 38mmscmd in the past two years. The companys 1,700Kms long infrastructure in Gujarat connects all the major gas demand centres to the supply sources. Also, connectivity to the LNG terminals of Shell and Petronet LNG and the HVJ pipeline in the West and with the Reliance Gas Transmission Infrastructure (RGTIL) pipeline in the east coast offers GSPL a unique advantage of giving its customers the option to source gas from all the major sources. Chart 2: Supply source in Gujarat
80 70 60 Petronet RIL D6 PMT Others
(mmscmd)
50 (mmscmd) 40 30 20
Note: Others include refinery, petchem plant, steel plants etc; Source: Infraline, Industry
123
ICICI Securities
Source: Company
Optimism of growth in domestic supply has re-emerged based on the recent RIL-BP deal for the KG basin blocks. Consequently, we see a possible expansion in GSPLs volumes based on the following phases: Phase I D6 volume ramp up to 65-67mmscmd from 51mmscmd. This would add 4-5mmscmd to GSPLs volumes, which would be mainly supplied to power projects in Gujarat. Thus, overall volumes would rise to 42-43mmscmd from 38mmscmd. Phase II D6 volumes to ramp up to 87mmscmd by end FY13E from 67mmscmd. This would add ~6-7mmscmd to GSPLs volumes and overall volumes would move up to 50mmscmd in FY14E. Additional infrastructure is required to ramp up beyond 50mmscmd.
However, we have factored in delay in ramp-up of gas production from KG D6 and believe that expansion to 87mmscmd would happen only by end FY13. Volume growth for GSPL would be primarily driven by LNG in FY12. Addition from RIL kicks in only from FY13 as per our estimates.
124
ICICI Securities
FY16E 40 36 18 18 20 80 9 20 20 15 30 306 150 70 10 45.5 23.4 21 320 13.6 % share (FY16E) 13.1 11.8 5.9 5.9 6.5 26.1 2.9 6.5 6.5 4.9 9.8
2008-09
Source: Industry
2009-10P
2010-11P
2011-12P
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ICICI Securities
Expanding horizons
Upsides from new pipelines back-ended
New pipeline bids, if commercially viable, offer an upside of Rs44/share to our target price In a regulated tariff scenario, the only way to expand valuations is to continuously incur capex. GSPL has won three bids of the four cross-country pipeline bids, which would expand its reach beyond Gujarat. Mallavram-Vijaipur-Bhilwara (1,585Kms) Rs60-70bn capex & 30mmscmd capacity. GSPL has won the bid for the Mallavram-Vijaipur-Bhilwara pipeline, in consortium with OMCs, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) and Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL). GSPL will own 52%, while IOC, HPCL and BPCL will 24%, 12% & 12% respectively. GSPL is planning to supply gas from the east coast to tap in the demand potential in Central India and East Rajasthan. The overall demand potential from this region is expected to be ~20mmscmd. However, this pipeline will compete with RGTIL and GAILs pipeline infrastructure. Hence, the key to success is excess supply from the east coast in the next 4-5 years. Mehsana-Bhatinda (1,670Kms) Rs65-80bn capex & 30mmscmd capacity. GSPL has won the bid for the Mehsana-Bhatinda pipeline together with OMCs. GSPL would own 52%, while IOC, HPCL and BPCL would own 24%, 12% and 12% respectively. GSPL wants to tap in gas demand centres in Bhatinda (from the upcoming HPCLMittal 9mmtpa Bhatinda refinery) and other demand centres en route to Rajasthan. The company sees a demand of 10mmscmd in Bhatinda, with other areas in Rajasthan potentially generating 10-20mmscmd demand. Bhatinda-Srinagar (740Kms) Rs30-40bn capex & 30mmscmd capacity. GSPL has won the bid for the pipeline in consortium with OMCs. GSPL would own 52%, while IOC, HPCL and BPCL would 24%, 12% and 12% respectively. The infrastructure for the pipeline would be difficult to implement and operate given its passage through the strife-ridden Jammu & Kashmir state. GSPL sees a demand potential of ~10mmscmd in Jammu and Srinagar. However, we are guarded in valuing the capex of the pipeline even if GSPL wins the bid as the route is prone to terrorism. Surat-Paradip (1,680Kms) Rs70-80bn capex & 30mmscmd capacity. The PNGRB has set March 28, 11 as the deadline for submitting the bids, the outcome of which will be declared by end-April or May 11. This pipeline runs parallel to RGTILs Kakinada-Bharuch pipeline, which is surprising. However, with >50-100mmscmd incremental gas production expected from the east coast in the next 5-10 years, GSPL probably envisages lack of pipeline capacity by RGTIL and other pipelines connecting the east coast. The company sees a potential demand of 20mmscmd in Paradip (from the upcoming 15mmtpa Paradip refinery and the proposed petrochemical complex).
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ICICI Securities
GSPL has won three bids for the new pipelines, but the official licences have not been issued by the PNGRB due to a stay by the Supreme Court on PNGRBs authority to award licences. The three pipelines span 4,000Kms in India and entail a capex of Rs180bn in the next 3-4 years. We believe the pipelines can add up to Rs44/share upside to GSPLs target price if they are found to be commercially viable. Table 3: Valuations for new pipelines
(Rs mn) New pipeline capex (gross) New pipeline capex (net to GSPL) Debt (70%) Equity Book value/Share (x) Discounted book value (four years) Project IRR (RoCE) P/BV valuation (@implied RoE of 17%, 1.4x) (x) Source: I-Sec Research 180,000 93,600 65,520 28,080 50 32 12% 44
Clarity is required on the biddable tariff component for the new pipelines before we factor it in our target price. Commercial viability of new pipelines assessable only after bid details are disclosed RoCE. GSPL has won three pipeline bids, but there is no clarity on financial parameters, the most prominent being the RoCE at which the bids were made. Since RoCE is a biddable component, any variation can significantly impact the expected valuation upside from these pipelines. Volume ramp-up schedule. For the new pipeline bids, this portion is biddable. While for existing pipelines or those authorised by the PNGRB, the utilisation moves in the following sequence annually 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% and 100%, for bidding, this can be flexible with the fastest sequence to 100% winning the bid. Assuming a 30mmscmd capacity, a company which has bid 80% in the first year will have to start with an average volume of 24mmscmd in the first year. Assuming lack of clarity on any firm gas supplies post 15, offering a high utilisation can be a major risk and can hamper the companys actual project IRR. Capex. A lower capex assumed would translate into competitive tariffs, on which the outcome of the financial bid will be based. A major risk to this assumption is cost overrun due to delays or run-up in raw material costs.
127
Gujarat State Petronet, April 4, 2011 Chart 5: Proposed pipeline bids by GSPL
ICICI Securities
DELHI
Source: Company
128
ICICI Securities
Financial overview
Volume growth on track
We expect GSPLs revenue growth to depend on its volume ramp-up in Gujarat. The companys gas transmission volumes will likely touch 50mmscmd in FY13E as RILs production from KG-D6 ramps up along with incremental volumes from the Petronet LNG terminal. Based on the volume rise, we expect average transmission tariffs for GSPL to decline to Rs0.7/scm in FY13E from Rs0.8/scm at present. However, post FY13, GSPLs revenue growth would depend on the commissioning of the recently bid cross-country pipelines and the ramp-up in domestic gas production. We have assumed nil contribution from GSPL to the Gujarat Socio Economic Development Scheme (GSEDS), the tax scheme implemented by the Gujarat Government PBT would have been eroded 30% if contribution was made to GSEDS (the Gujarat Government has made no clarifications on GSEDS). Also, as per industry sources, the Gujarat Government has informally withdrawn the order owing to the impact on the future IPOs proposed by the state entities, most prominent being the proposed issue of Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC). Table 4: Key financials and assumptions
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) Volumes (mmscmd) Average tariffs (Rs/scm) Average tariffs (Rs/mmscmd) Revenues YoY growth (%) EBITDA YoY growth (%) EBITDA margin PAT (adjusted) YoY growth (%) PAT margin Source: I-Sec Research FY10 32.59 848.47 0.85 9,920 103.48 9,297 118.79 93.73 4,110 232.62 41.44 FY11E 37.39 809.72 0.81 11,049 11.39 10,391 11.77 94.05 5,617 36.66 50.84 FY12E 42.15 823.22 0.82 12,319 11.49 11,613 11.75 94.27 6,249 11.25 50.73 FY13E 50.39 718.82 0.72 12,859 4.39 12,023 3.53 93.50 6,897 10.37 53.63
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ICICI Securities
Valuations attractive
Reinitiate with a BUY
We recommend GSPL as one of the most aggressive plays in the oil & gas sector At the current market price of Rs102, GSPL is attractively valued at FY13E P/E of 8x. Based on cash earnings too, the company is appealing at 6.4x FY13E CEPS. We value the company on DCF, which yields Rs130/share target price. At this target price, GSPL would trade at a comfortable 8.2x FY13E cash earnings. As the dynamics of the domestic midstream gas industry is changing with regulations and as significant supplies commence from the east coast, we believe GSPL is one of the most aggressive growth plays in this space. Reinitiate with a BUY. Table 6: DCF valuations
(Rs mn) PV of FCF to FY24E Terminal value PV of terminal value EV Less: Net debt Value for shareholders Number of shares (mn) GSPL Value for extant business (Rs/share) Source: I-Sec Research 56,763 112,909 27,490 84,253 11,407 72,846 562.1 130
130
ICICI Securities
May-10
Nov-07
Aug-06
Dec-09
Sep-08
Mar-11
Feb-09
Jan-07
Jun-07
Apr-06
Apr-08
Jul-09
131
ICICI Securities
109 36 91 390 626 4,249 87.2 1,705 243 2,788 870 1,918 2
122 3 533 658 10,391 94.0 1,258 189 9,322 1,257 8,064 -
153 3 551 706 11,613 94.3 1,558 361 10,415 1,447 8,969 -
176 2 659 836 12,023 93.5 1,730 581 10,874 1,210 9,665 -
132
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
3,700 42 1,590
4,905 87 3,486
3,781 92 3,486
2,890 96 3,486
5,331 284
8,478 681
7,358 4,868
6,472 6,809
356 356
666 666
666 666
666 666
666 666
133
ICICI Securities
243 243
247 247
189 189
361 361
581 581
134
ICICI Securities
46.3 19.5 4.7 3.6 11.74 15.9 13.9 50.0 (21.0) 0.7
13.9 8.8 3.7 2.7 5.77 7.3 6.9 8.2 2,454.6 1.0
10.1 8.3 2.8 2.2 5.18 7.1 6.7 12.6 (13.5) 1.0
9.1 7.3 2.2 1.8 4.65 5.9 5.6 9.0 11.9 1.0
8.0 6.4 1.7 1.4 4.45 5.1 4.8 6.8 8.8 1.0
135
ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Gas demand source in Gujarat ...........................................................................123 Chart 2: Supply source in Gujarat.....................................................................................123 Chart 3: GSPLs network in Gujarat..................................................................................124 Chart 4: Gas, most competitive versus other alternate fuels............................................125 Chart 5: Proposed pipeline bids by GSPL ........................................................................128 Chart 6: Rolling Price/EPS trend.......................................................................................131 Chart 7: Rolling PBV trend................................................................................................131 Chart 8: Rolling EV/EBITDA trend ....................................................................................131
136
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
Petronet LNG
Positives in the price
Oil&Gas and Petrochemicals
Target price Rs116
HOLD
Rs125
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 15.7 20.0 MFs and UTI 7.0 9.5 FIs/ Banks 0.2 0.1 FIIs 8.5 10.4 Others 34.3 30.1 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun 10 50.0 Sep 10 50.0 Dec 10 50.0 21.3 10.4 0.1 10.8 28.7
Price chart
140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Aug-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jun-10 Apr-10 Jan-11
(Rs)
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
137
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Profitability unsustainable ..........................................................................................139 Business model low risk, sans marketing margin component ....................................139 Surge in profitability from spot volumes, but not sustainable......................................140 Kochi contract, a concern...........................................................................................141 Long-term LNG pricing decisive ................................................................................142 Financials & valuations ...............................................................................................144 Earnings to trace volume growth ................................................................................144 Fairly valued; initiate with HOLD.................................................................................144 Key risks to our call .....................................................................................................145 Annexure 1: Financials (standalone) .........................................................................147 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................151
138
ICICI Securities
Profitability unsustainable
Business model low risk, sans marketing margin component
Petronet insulated from increase in LNG price for longterm contracts Petronet has contracted 7.5mmtpa LNG volumes over the long-term (25-year contract) from Rasgas of Qatar, which is backed by a similar sales arrangement (with a take-orpay clause) with three of its four promoters GAIL, IOC and BPCL in the ratio of 60:30:10. The companys gross operating income is derived from regasification charge (Rs33.5/mmbtu at present) for these volumes. These margins are built as a mark-up over the cost of LNG for calculating revenues, along with other central and state taxes. Petronet therefore operates a low-risk business model as far as these contracted volumes are concerned, with extremely limited exposure change in associated gas price and forex risks, as the overall cost for procuring these LNG volumes (including shipping charges) is passed on to the offtakers. However, from January 09, Petronets gas purchase cost from Rasgas is being revised monthly until December 13 and would then be aligned to prevailing crude prices. As per estimates, the LNG price from Rasgas for Petronet would increase to ~US$12/mmbtu by 13E at an average JCC crude price of US$100/bl. In terms of the contract signed between Petronet and Rasgas, the LNG price formula is monthly LNG FOB price = 1.90/15 * JCC. The JCC price would be the average of the preceding 12 months, excluding the last three months and including the pricing month. This price is subject to a floating ceiling and floor price linked to a JCC price. The price for the period commencing from January 1, 09, shall be subject to a floating cap and ceiling, defined as follows:
(60-N) * 20 + (N*A60) Floating cap = ------------------------------------ + 4 60 (60-N) * 20 + (N*A60) Floating floor = ------------------------------------ - 4 60
Where N = 1 for January 09, increasing by 1 each month until it reaches 60 in December 13, up to the end of the term of this agreement. A60 is the arithmetic average of JCC over the period of sixty months. As these volumes are backed by a purchase agreement with the offtakers, we do not see any major risk to volumes.
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ICICI Securities
Source: Company
We see a similar situation developing in FY11 as Petronet has capitalised on the drop in KG D6 volumes to garner spot volumes. The companys RoE will likely rise again to 25% levels in FY11E. However, as volumes from RILs KG-D6 and other domestic blocks expand over FY12-13, RoEs will gradually drop to stabilise at 20% in the long term. The ramp-up in gas production from the KG-D6 Basin had affected Petronets spot volumes (gas produced from the KG-D6 Basin is preferred due its cost advantage and long-term availability) in FY10, leading to a sudden drop in RoE. Therefore, it is likely that Petronets spot volumes will sharply reduce in the next two years.
140
ICICI Securities
LPG
Naphtha
Contracted LNG
Spot LNG
RIL - KG D6
PMT
APM
FY10
FY11E
FY12E
141
ICICI Securities
Difficult to see the economics behind substituting coal with LNG in power sector
At present, India is the sixth largest LNG importing nation after Japan, South Korea and Spain. India primarily competes against Japan and South Korea for most LNG contracts. Both Japan and South Korea can absorb high LNG prices as the gas consumption in these countries is more to meet the peak power demand (mostly an alternative to nuclear power) and industry demand. On the other hand, the gas demand from the Indian power sector is highly sensitive to price since domestic power tariffs are predominantly derived from low-cost, coal-based plants. Hence, pricing is a major constraint for Petronet to enter into long-term contracts. Hence, if crude price continues to sustain at >US$100/bl, Petronets long-term utilisation at its terminals, especially Kochi, will be exposed to risk. Rasgas contract signed by Petronet for its Dahej terminal was a one-off in the LNG industry and current contracts are based on 14-16% linkage to crude, mostly without a floor or a cap.
142
ICICI Securities
2009 Imports (bcm) 12.80 0.98 3.55 0.96 0.35 0.65 0.56 0.76 6.53 13.07 0.74 2.90 2.82 27.01 5.71 10.24 0.89 7.63 12.62 85.90 34.33 11.79 242.77
% of total 4.39 1.59 0.00 0.18 0.21 0.36 1.10 5.56 0.41 0.69 1.16 12.68 2.34 0.46 1.96 4.76 40.67 16.14 5.33
% of total 5.27 0.40 1.46 0.39 0.14 0.27 0.23 0.31 2.69 5.38 0.31 1.19 1.16 11.12 2.35 4.22 0.37 3.14 5.20 35.38 14.14 4.86
0.12 0.34 2.03 6.58 0.23 1.47 0.93 11.57 2.71 1.69 0.47 3.79 38.78 16.17 4.83
0.36 0.74 3.17 12.97 0.81 2.43 2.31 24.18 6.01 1.46 3.87 9.98 88.82 34.39 10.92 226.41
0.41 0.47 0.81 2.49 12.59 0.94 1.56 2.63 28.73 5.31 1.04 4.44 10.79 92.13 36.55 12.07 226.51
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ICICI Securities
Key assumptions
Long-term utilisation at Dahej and Kochi at 80% WACC at 13.4% Starting regas tariff for Kochi at Rs70/mmbtu
144
ICICI Securities
Regulations
At present, regasification tariffs charged by Petronet are not being regulated by the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB). However, the PNGRB is evaluating a proposal to regulate regas tariffs, on similar lines as the transmission tariffs. This can lead to a possible decline in its tariffs.
145
ICICI Securities
0 Oct-07 May-07 May-10 Mar-08 Oct-10 4x 3x 2x 1x Oct-10 Jul-06 Dec-06 Aug-08 Dec-09 Sep-05 Mar-11 Feb-06 Jan-09 Apr-05 Jun-09
11x 9x 7x
146
ICICI Securities
73,756 196 375 364 583 75,274 9,013 10.7 1,025 765 8,753 1,012 7,740 2,556 2,526 30 5,184 5,184
96,648 204 480 451 244 98,026 8,465 7.9 1,609 978 7,834 1,839 5,995 1,950 1,410 540 4,045 4,045
117,243 245 576 531 268 118,862 11,965 9.1 1,858 808 10,914 1,990 8,924 2,900 2,099 801 6,024 6,024
152,344 294 651 588 281 154,158 13,130 7.8 2,906 1,345 11,569 2,365 9,203 2,991 2,165 826 6,212 6,212
196,893 530 739 668 322 199,151 16,609 7.7 3,954 1,481 14,136 4,402 9,734 3,163 2,358 805 6,570 6,570
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ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
Liabilities & Shareholders Equity Borrowings Long Term Debt Total Borrowings Deferred Tax Liability Share Capital Paid up Equity Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Share Premium General & Other Reserve Net Worth Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
7,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
7,500
148
ICICI Securities
765 765
978 978
808 808
1,345 1,345
1,481 1,481
149
ICICI Securities
18.1 15.1 4.7 4.7 0.0 11.9 1.3 49.3 (32.8) 1.4
23.2 15.2 4.2 4.2 0.0 13.2 1.0 13.9 (23.2) 1.4
15.6 10.8 3.5 3.5 0.0 9.9 0.9 23.7 (20.8) 1.6
15.1 9.4 3.0 3.0 0.0 9.8 0.8 17.5 (12.9) 1.7
14.3 8.3 2.6 2.6 0.0 7.5 0.6 17.2 28.6 1.7
150
ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Petronet Business model .................................................................................140 Chart 2: Gas pricing Kochi contract rate more than current spot rate ...........................141 Chart 3: Rolling Price/EPS trend.......................................................................................146 Chart 4: Rolling PBV trend................................................................................................146 Chart 5: Rolling EV/EBITDA trend ....................................................................................146
151
ICICI Securities
152
Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
HOLD
Rs606
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors MFs and UTI 7.4 Insurance 0.1 Company FIIs 7.4 Others 17.4 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun '10 54.9 27.7 Sep '10 54.9 27.6 8.2 0.1 8.2 17.4 Dec 10 54.9 27.7 8.5 0.2 7.6 17.4
Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is one of the largest integrated oil marketing companies (OMCs) in India, enjoying >21% share in the domestic market. It is commissioning a greenfield Bharat Oman Refinery (BORL) at Bina, which will raise its overall refining capacity to ~30mmtpa. BPCL has struck gold in the E&P space with prolific oil & gas discoveries in Mozambique and Brazil, appraisals for which can yield strong, long-term valuation upside. However, under-recovery concerns override the positives as we estimate crude price to average at US$100/bl in the next two years. The Governments inability to undertake subsidy reforms has hit BPCLs profitability hard, threatening its valuation outlook. We reinitiate coverage on BPCL with HOLD (target price of Rs562/share, at 1.1x BV) since E&P triggers provide some respite in the long term. Subsidy concerns override positives. The subsidy-sharing mechanism continues to be uncertain for OMCs. BPCL is losing ~Rs10.5/litre on diesel, Rs4.25/litre on petrol, Rs21/litre on SKO and Rs290/cylinder on LPG. BPCLs gross under-recovery is expected to be Rs165bn in FY11E based on the current crude price. BPCLs net under-recovery share is expected at a lower~Rs28bn (will increase to Rs43bn in FY13E), given the likely compensation from the Government at Rs83bn and upstream assistance of Rs55bn. However, the precise contribution from the Government is still uncertain, which can hurt earnings going forward. E&P to be a long-term trigger. BPCLs E&P business is on a good wicket through its stakes in prolific exploration blocks in Brazil & Mozambique. In the past three years, BPCL has made hydrocarbon discoveries in Brazil (Wahoo I-II) and significant gas finds in Mozambique (Windjammer, Lagosta, Bargentine & Tubaroa fields). These discoveries are in the appraisal stage, so limited information is available on the reserve potential. However, as these discoveries are appraised and developed in the next 3-5 years, significant long-term valuation triggers will come into play. Commissioning of the Bina refinery, a positive. BPCL is expected to commission the 6mmtpa Bina refinery by April 11. The refinery will likely boost BPCLs marketing plans for the North and the North East, where it has limited presence. Though the overall refinery cost has slightly increased to Rs110bn, its high complexity of 9.1 would ensure a premium of at least US$2-3/bl over Singapore Complexs GRMs in the long term.
Market Cap Reuters/Bloomberg Shares Outstanding (mn) 52-week Range (Rs) Free Float (%) FII (%) Daily Volume (US$'000) Absolute Return 3m (%) Absolute Return 12m (%) Sensex Return 3m (%) Sensex Return 12m (%) Rs219bn/US$4.9bn BPCL IN/BPCL IN 361.54 840/488 45.1 7.6 12,550 (8.2) 19.1 (5.6) 8.3 Year to March Revenue (Rs mn) Net Income (Rs mn) EPS (Rs) % Chg YoY P/E (x) CEPS (Rs) EV/E (x) Dividend Yield RoCE (%) RoE (%) FY10 17,387 48.1 167.8 12.7 88.0 11.8 2.5 5.9 12.7 FY11E 15,971 44.2 (8.1) 13.8 87.5 9.4 2.5 6.0 10.9 FY12E 8,572 23.7 (46.3) 25.7 70.2 10.2 1.3 4.1 5.6 FY13E 9,942 27.5 16.0 22.2 75.9 9.4 1.5 4.4 6.2
Price chart
850 750 (Rs) 650 550 450 Jun-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Nov-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Apr-10
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
153
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Subsidy concerns override positives ........................................................................155 Profitability under pressure .........................................................................................156 E&P upsides long-drawn.............................................................................................157 Encouraging discoveries in Mozambique ...................................................................157 High potential in Brazil ................................................................................................159 Bina refinery to bridge the refining-marketing gap..................................................160 Flexibility to process different qualities of crude .........................................................160 Fiscal incentives by the Madhya Pradesh government ..............................................161 Valuations Positives factored in .............................................................................162 Key assumptions.........................................................................................................163 Key risks to our call .....................................................................................................163 Annexure 1: Financials (consolidated)......................................................................164 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................168
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ICICI Securities
Petrol 73,320 Diesel 351,660 Kerosene 191,020 LPG 155,230 Total 771,230 Source: Infraline, I-Sec Research
Under-recoveries should hit the roof in FY12 we expect Brent prices to average around US$100/bl. The Governments inability to undertake any major price revision on subsidised products spiked under-recoveries as a whole to Rs1,111bn, crossing FY09 levels of Rs1,030bn. BPCLs share is expected to be at a lower Rs41bn, given Rs122bn compensation by the Government and upstream assistance of Rs82bn. Table 2: Under-recovery sharing
(Rs mn) IOC % total BPCL % total HPCL % total Total downstream Upstream assistance ONGC OIL GAIL Total Source: Infraline, I-Sec Research FY09 149 44.6 96 28.8 89 26.6 334 273,740 29,319 16,937 319,996 FY10 23,784 58.1 8,540 20.9 8,602 21.0 40,926 114,560 15,267 13,854 143,681 FY11E 74,700 57.8 27,608 21.4 26,999 20.9 129,307 206,373 32,129 19,170 257,672 FY12E 107,158 57.6 40,802 21.9 37,997 20.4 185,957 304,782 44,988 22,143 371,914 FY13E 111,692 57.8 42,557 22.0 39,129 20.2 193,378 315,239 46,823 24,694 386,755
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ICICI Securities
BPCLs profitability in the next 2-3 years is a major concern as it is highly dependent on the Governments subsidy sharing mechanism and product pricing policy. We expect BPCLs cashflows to witness pressure from FY12, led by higher-thanexpected working capital requirement. The company would find it difficult to manage inventories, leading to pressure on short-term debt levels and interest payments. Table 4: Pressure on cashflow
(Rs mn) Operating cashflow Working capital changes Capital commitments Free cashflow Source: I-Sec Research FY09 (140,133) 26,111 (57,902) (171,925) FY10 (10,705) (39,399) (62,627) (112,731) FY11E 16,435 13,598 (38,612) (8,579) FY12E 17,002 (25,445) (19,377) (27,820) FY13E 20,238 (34,988) (15,000) (29,750)
156
ICICI Securities
157
ICICI Securities
Barquentine - 416 Net Feet of Pay Windjammer - 555 Net Feet of Pay Tubaro - 110 Net Feet of Pay
Planned activity in 11 Dedicated Rig Add Second Rig in Q4 Appraise Discoveries Source: Anadarko Presentation
We are positive over BPCLs Mozambique prospects and there is a strong possibility of major reserve accretion from the block, which could be a huge trigger for valuations. The JV plans to drill further exploratory wells so as to estimate the reserve. We conservatively factor in 30% chances of the Mozambique find to be of 20tcf size and ascribe a 50% recovery factor to this estimate. We value these reserves at US$4/bl and discount it to arrive at a fair value of Rs38/share. Chart 2: Mozambique development plan
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ICICI Securities
20 1,080 10.00 108 4.0 432 19,872 10,197 31
EV/bl basis
Rs46/US$ exchange rate assumed 10% discount rate Shares outstanding adjusted for treasury stocks
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ICICI Securities
The commissioning of BPCLs greenfield refinery, BORL, would help it bridge the refining-marketing gap, thus curtailing profit volatility due to crude price movement. BORL would be a 6mmtpa refinery with a Nelson complexity of 9. The refinery would be commissioned by Q1FY12 and would primarily target Euro IV compliant products (in 11 cities in India). We value BPCLs investment in BORL at 1x P/BV, which provides an upside of Rs73/share.
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ICICI Securities
Other financial incentives are: A concession in basic customs duty for capital goods import Exemption from paying income tax for seven years from the date of commercial operation of the refinery.
The MP Government will have the first right of refusal on Naphtha sale from the refinery.
161
ICICI Securities
1.0x 0.5x Apr-02 Aug-02 Dec-02 Apr-03 Aug-03 Dec-03 Apr-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11
162
ICICI Securities
Rs/share 495 0.6 317 29 31 17 23 28 43 73 562 1.1
Key assumptions
Average Brent prices in FY12E-13E at US$100/bl Marginal revision in diesel and LPG prices Under-recovery sharing. 50% of under-recoveries would be compensated by the Government, 33% by upstream (ONGC, OIL and GAIL) and the rest will likely be borne by BPCL
163
ICICI Securities
1,235,642 736 19,813 75,647 1,331,838 33,733 12,617 14,358 35,474 24,043 11,431 (156)
1,099,836 2,448 22,522 82,823 1,207,629 30,539 14,446 23,652 39,745 11,247 28,498 (1,064)
1,435,338 2,623 22,294 84,450 1,544,705 37,884 15,652 14,985 37,217 13,820 23,397 -
1,661,404 2,884 22,982 85,902 1,773,172 36,603 16,799 8,545 28,349 13,986 14,363 -
1,659,172 3,171 23,671 87,307 1,773,322 41,583 17,505 7,446 31,524 15,114 16,410 -
164
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
3,615
3,615
3,615
3,615
3,615
165
ICICI Securities
(171,925) (112,731)
166
ICICI Securities
(60.5) (34.9) 22.8 (5.5) (60.5) (73.9) 2.47 2.60 0.83 0.47 102.7 6.3 125.6 480.7 35.3
167.8 66.6 (9.3) (9.5) 167.8 (0.4) 2.47 3.21 2.26 1.38 92.8 7.0 83.0 172.4 35.9
(8.1) (0.7) 27.8 24.1 (8.1) (7.3) 2.39 2.35 1.46 1.00 95.7 5.6 64.0 218.6 28.7
(46.3) (19.8) 14.4 (3.4) (46.3) (37.1) 2.02 1.57 0.79 0.47 98.5 5.1 59.5 334.4 34.7
16.0 8.2 0.3 13.6 16.0 26.9 2.29 1.74 0.90 0.55 98.3 5.2 45.4 307.0 34.4
167
ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: Mozambique discoveries ....................................................................................158 Chart 2: Mozambique development plan ..........................................................................158 Chart 3: Brazil discoveries ................................................................................................159 Chart 4: Rolling price-book trend ......................................................................................162
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Equity Research
April 4, 2011 BSE Sensex: 19420
SELL
Rs352
Shareholding pattern
Promoters Institutional investors 35.9 36.6 MFs and UTI 12.4 12.6 Insurance Company 0.0 0.4 FIIs 6.5 8.7 Others 13.0 12.3 Source: www.nseindia.com Jun '10 51.1 Sep '10 51.1 Dec '10 51.1 36.0 11.3 0.9 8.3 12.9
Price chart
560 520 480 440 400 360 320 280 Dec-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Apr-10 Jul-10
(Rs)
Rohit Ahuja
rohit.ahuja@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7274
Prolin Nandu
prolin.nandu@icicisecurities.com +91 22 6637 7386
169
ICICI Securities
TABLE OF CONTENT
Derailed by rising under-recovery .............................................................................171 Profitability under pressure .........................................................................................172 Commissioning of Bhatinda refinery important .......................................................174 High complexity advantage.........................................................................................174 Bhatinda project Details ...........................................................................................175 Key assumptions.........................................................................................................175 Valuations Strong downside....................................................................................176 Key assumptions.........................................................................................................177 Key risks to our call .....................................................................................................177 Annexure 1: Financials (consolidated)......................................................................178 Annexure 2: Index of Tables and Charts ...................................................................182 Annexure 4: International financial reporting standards Impact on oil & gas sector ............................................................................................................................183 Likely impact on Indian companies .............................................................................183
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ICICI Securities
Source: Bloomberg
HPCLs overall under-recovery is expected to be Rs171bn in FY11E based on the current crude prices. Its net share is expected at ~Rs36bn, reduced to a major extent by expected compensation from the Government at Rs81bn and upstream assistance of Rs54bn. However, there is still uncertainty on the precise contribution from the Government, which can hurt the companys earnings going forward.
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ICICI Securities
FY08 257,080 33.3 352,900 45.8 161,250 20.9 771,230 FY09 320,000 31.0 712,920 69.0 334 1,032,920 FY10 144,300 31.3 260,000 56.5 56,210 12.2 460,510 FY11E 258,615 33.3 387,922 50.0 129,308 16.7 775,844 FY12E 371,914 33.3 557,871 50.0 185,957 16.7 1,115,741 FY13E 386,755 33.3 580,133 50.0 193,378 16.7 1,160,266
Total upstream % total Total government % total Total downstream % total Total under-recovery Petrol Diesel Kerosene LPG Total Source: Infraline, I-Sec Research
The under-recovery should hit the roof from FY12, when we expect Brent prices to average above US$100/bl. The Governments inability to undertake any major price revisions for subsidised products will spike overall under-recovery to Rs1,111bn, crossing the FY09 levels of Rs1,030bn. HPCLs share in FY13E is expected to be at Rs44bn, which is reduced by the Governments compensation of Rs132bn and upstream assistance of Rs88bn. Table 3: Sharing of under-recovery
(Rs mn)
IOC % total BPCL % total HPCL % total Total downstream Upstream assistance ONGC OIL GAIL
Total Source: Infraline, I-Sec Research
HPCLs profitability in the next 2-3 years is a major concern as it is highly dependent on the Governments subsidy sharing mechanism and product pricing policy.
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ICICI Securities
We expect BPCLs cashflows to witness pressure from FY12, led by higher-thanexpected working capital requirement. The company would find it difficult to manage inventories, leading to pressure on the companys short term debt levels and interest payments. Table 5: Pressure on cashflows
(Rs mn) Operating cashflow Working capital changes Capital commitments Free cashflow Source: I-Sec Research FY09 (55,198) 53,113 30,515 (138,825) FY10 (131,702) (29,411) 32,086 (134,377) FY11E 3,039 2,151 48,047 (47,158) FY12E (60,688) (28,774) (35,418) 3,503 FY13E (106,023) 632 (103,432) (3,223)
173
ICICI Securities
174
ICICI Securities
Table 7: Valuations
Particulars PV of FCF to FY2020E Terminal value PV of terminal value Firm Value Less Net Debt NPV Value for HPCL Value/share for HPCL Source: I-Sec Research
Key assumptions
Commissioning by Q2FY12 Long-term average GRMs at US$9/bl WACC 9.6%, terminal growth 2%
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ICICI Securities
(Rs)
400
1.0x
200 0.5x 0 Oct-02 May-03 Mar-06 Dec-03 Nov-07 Dec-08 Sep-06 Aug-05 Sep-10 Mar-11
Value (Rs/share) 381 0.5 173
Feb-10
Jun-04
Jan-05
Apr-02
Apr-07
Jun-08
Jul-09
45 17 63 298 0.8
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ICICI Securities
Key assumptions
Average Brent prices in FY12E-13E at US$100/bl Marginal revision in diesel and LPG prices Under-recovery sharing. About 50% of under-recoveries will likely be compensated by the Government, 33% by Upstream (ONGC, OIL and GAIL) and the rest by HPCL.
177
ICICI Securities
146,928
1,093,776
55,631
1,013,475
82,509
1,355,766
127,032
1,665,419
132,364
1,671,494
Less: Raw Materials Consumed Purchase of products for resale Power and Fuel Personnel Expenses Selling & Distribution Expenses
Total Operating Expenses EBITDA (excl bonds) EBITDA (incl bonds)
9,813 9,057
27,951
11,644 16,462
40,981
13,095 12,263
21,736
13,939 350
20,533
14,926 608
21,279
20,828
7,122
9,038
31,943
10,888
10,848
10,432
10,101
8,559
12,719
Add: Extra Ordinary income Less: Taxation Current Tax Deferred Tax Prior period tax paid/(write back)
Net Income (Reported) Consolidated Recurring Net Income Source: Company data, I-Sec Research
178
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
350,892
346,683
332,524
335,856
341,587
3,390
3,390
3,390
3,390
3,390
179
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
7,215 13,095
7,071 13,939
8,903 14,926
23,239 8,847
32,086 (143,434)
36,661 11,386
48,047 (63,620)
82,180 9,057
91,237
69,819 16,462
86,281
20,000 12,263
32,263
10,000 350
10,350
10,000 608
10,608
1 (3,173) (3,172)
(1,945)
180
ICICI Securities
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
181
ICICI Securities
Charts
Chart 1: HPCLs stock price vis--vis Brent......................................................................171 Chart 2: Rolling price/book trend ......................................................................................176
182
ICICI Securities
Annexure 4: International financial reporting standards Impact on oil & gas sector
Compiled by: Structured Finance Group, ICICI Securities, Headed by Mr Charanjit Attra
ONGC
Under IFRS, the net worth of ONGC, as of March 31, 10, could be positively impacted by the following: Amortisation of goodwill in the current year to be written back. As per IFRS, goodwill is not subject to amortisation but is to be tested annually for impairment. Such amortised amount of goodwill has been written back. Foreign exchange translation reserve (negative balance) being added back to the net worth.
Offset by: Foreign exchange loss, which has been capitalised, would be written off in the profit & loss account under IFRS. Unamortised miscellaneous expenditure would be charged to profit & loss account under IFRS. Capital reserve on consolidation would be charged to profit & loss account.
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain. Successful method of accounting is followed for oil & gas accounting. However as per IFRS 6, only costs that qualify to be treated as E&E assets are capitalised. All other costs are to be charged to profit and loss. The liability towards cost of dismantling & restoration is recognised when wells are complete. As per IFRS, decommissioning/restoration costs are to be provided for at the restoration cost of present value of such expenses, the cost being included in the gross block Loans are provided to employees. If such loans are provided at lower interest rates, the same are to be fair valued and such unrealised gains/ losses are to be taken to CIS. The company has doubtful debts of more than six months, which are to be tested for impairment annually. Fixed assets are to be depreciated over their estimated useful life on the basis of each components of the asset
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ICICI Securities
Offset by: Accounting of capital reserves on acquisition of subsidiaries Unamortised miscellaneous expenditure would be charged to profit & loss account under IFRS Indirect expenditures capitalised would be charged to profit & loss account under IFRS Deferred Government grant would be charged to profit & loss account under IFRS
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain. The company has booked goodwill on consolidation, which is not subject to amortisation but is to be tested annually for impairment. Successful method of accounting is followed for oil & gas accounting and all acquisition, exploration & development costs are treated as CWIP initially; once ready for commercial production such costs are capitalised. As per IFRS only such costs which can be classified as E&E assets can be capitalised, all other costs are charged to profit & loss. The company, however, can follow either successful cost or full cost method. Decommissioning/restoration costs are to be provided for at the restoration cost of the present value of such expenses, the cost being included in the gross block. Where loans are provided at lower interest rates, the same are to be fair valued and such unrealised gain/ loss are to be taken to CIS. Long-terms (unquoted) investments are valued at cost. Such investments are to be fair valued by effective interest method any change being accounted through CIS. The company has doubtful debts of more than six months, which are to be tested for impairment annually. Fixed assets are to be depreciated over their estimated useful life on the basis of each components of the asset.
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ICICI Securities
Offset by: Market development reserve taken to profit & loss account
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain. The company has the right to use intangible assets, which are not amortised due to its perpetual nature. Such intangible assets are to be tested annually for impairment and in case of an impairment loss, such are to be charged to profit and loss. Successful method of accounting is followed for oil & gas accounting and all acquisition, exploration & development costs are treated as CWIP initially; once ready for commercial production such costs are capitalised. As per IFRS, only such costs which can be classified as E&E assets can be capitalised all other costs are charged to profit & loss. The company, however, can follow either successful cost or full cost method. Decommissioning/restoration costs are to be provided for at the restoration cost of present value of such expenses, the cost being included in the gross block. Where loans are provided at lower interest rate, the same are to be fair valued and such unrealised gain/ loss are to be taken to CIS. Long-terms (unquoted) investments are valued at cost. Such investments are to be fair valued by effective interest method any change being accounted through CIS. Fixed assets are to be depreciated over their estimated useful life on the basis of each components of the asset.
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ICICI Securities
GAIL (India)
Under IFRS, the net worth of GAIL India, as of March 31, 10, would be positively impacted by the following: Deferred Government grant taken to profit & loss account
Offset by: Accounting for foreign exchange translation reserve Sales tax deferral account charged to profit & loss account
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain. The company has the right to use intangible assets, which are not amortised due to its perpetual nature. Such intangible assets are to be tested annually for impairment and in case of an impairment loss, such are to be charged to profit and loss account. The company has booked goodwill on consolidation, which is not subject to amortisation but is to be tested annually for impairment. Decommissioning/restoration costs are to be provided for at the restoration cost of the present value of such expenses, the cost being included in the gross block. Loans are provided to employees. If such loans are provided at lower interest rates, the same are to be fair valued and such unrealised gains/losses are to be taken to CIS Long-term (unquoted) investments are valued at cost. Such investments are to be fair valued by effective interest method, any change being accounted through CIS. Fixed assets are to be depreciated over their estimated useful life on the basis of each components of the asset.
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain. CWIP includes other costs whose nature is not identifiable. On assumption that such costs do not qualify as either tangible/intangible/financial assets, they have been charged to CIS.
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ICICI Securities
The company treats all expenditure on project till commissioning as CWIP, post which the same are transferred to the gross block. However, the maximum period of treating it as CWIP is not clarified nor the treatment if such a project is unsuccessful. Long-term (unquoted) investments are valued at cost. Such investments are to be fair valued by effective interest method, any change being accounted through CIS. Gas transmission pipeline are depreciated over an average period of 12 years, useful life being 30 years. All assets are to be mandatorily depreciated over their useful lives on each & every component of the asset.
Impact on group company policies Its holding company Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) applies the full cost method for its exploratory business. However, as per IFRS 6, only costs which qualify as E &E assets can be capitalised when incurred and all other costs are to be charged to the profit and loss account. Provision for dismantling & restoration is made as per technical assessment made by the company. However, such provisions are to be made at the restoration costs for the present value of the cost of dismantling, removal or restoration as a result of legal or construction obligation is recognised and corresponding costs are included a part of related property plant & equipment.
Reliance Industries
Under IFRS, the net worth of RIL, as of March 31, 10 would be negatively impacted by the following:
Accounting for capital reserve on consolidation Unamortised balance of miscellaneous expenditure written off to profit & loss account
Offset by: Capitalisation of exchange gain taken to profit & loss account Accounting of exchange fluctuation reserve
The following differences have not been considered due to lack of information in the public domain The company follows full cost method for Oil & gas activity. However, only costs which can be classified as E&E assets as per IFRS 6 can be capitalised; all other costs are to be charged to profit and loss account. Development costs are to be accounted as per IAS 29 (intangible assets). Long-term (unquoted) investments are valued at cost. Such investments are to be fair valued by effective interest method any change being accounted through CIS. The company has doubtful debts of more than six months, which are to be tested for impairment annually.
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ICICI Securities
Fixed assets are to be depreciated over their estimated useful life on the basis of each components of the asset. No decommissioning costs have been provided. However as per IFRS, provisions are to be made at the restoration costs for the present value of the cost of dismantling; removal or restoration as a result of legal or construction obligation is recognised and corresponding costs are included a part of related property plant & equipment
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ICICI Securities Limited has been mandated to act as one of the Book Running Lead Managers to manage the IPO of the group company of Gujarat State Petronet Limited, viz., Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation Limited. This report is prepared on the basis of publicly available information.
I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings relative to Sensex over next 12 months) BUY: +10% outperformance; HOLD: -10% to +10% relative performance; SELL: +10% underperformance
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA research analysts and the authors of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. 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It is confirmed that Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings from Investment Banking and other business. ICICI Securities or its affiliates collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. It is confirmed that Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies mentioned in the report. 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This report has not been prepared by ICICI Securities, Inc. However, ICICI Securities, Inc. has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.
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