July 31st Aug 6th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 13

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook
gives opportunity to take good size moves of 100+ pips inside of a few days in both directions. Keep an eye on fundamentals in the US and Europe when taking your trades considering the markets are making moves based on these to major economies. This week will be a historical week with the US debt ceiling vote, consider that when you place your trades. All technical's can be violated when unexpected economic events happen.

In this issue: Fundamental GBPUSD EURUSD AUDUSD GBPJPY NZDUSD 2 1

EURJPY EURCAD EURCHF GBPCHF Event Risk

Contact Info Disclaimer

The markets are trading thin volume summer months with high volatility, so much for slow summer trading. With the US debt Vote early this week, expect a volatile week. Looking at the environment we are in, we suggest to keep your trades short term, reduce your risk, with the daily fluctuations in a wide range

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: Last weeks high reached 1.6470 from the months low of 1.5780, the current strength is expected to slow with this weeks BOE rate statement on the docket and no interest rate hike insight, the next level up for resistance is 1.6550 and from there we have the May high of 1.6740 area, we expect a decline from current levels before another move up towards the highs. Recommendation: Current short term picture looks like we may have a topping region in place, we are looking for a short entry trigger around 1.6350-1.6400, with targets at 1.6190-1.6100. Keep stop above 1,6450. This is a risky play, safe play is wait for move down and look for next long after a higher low has been created above 1.5780. The med term picture looks like another test of 1.6700 before the next major break. Of course all can change with the US debts ceiling Vote.

July 31st Aug 6th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 13

Elite Global Trading

Euro / US Dollar
EURUSD: Current short term picture over the next week looks to possible make a bearish move down to the 1.4000 level. With a short term high in place around 1.4500 we look for short opportunities using stops above 1.4450. We have strong resistance at 1.4450 and 1.4500. A break of those levels the uptrend will resume to new highs above 1.4600. On the downside look for support around 1.4270 1.4200 1.4100 and stronger support at 1.4000. Recommendation: Short term Bearish Bias, we are looking for a short signal this week around 1.4400-1.4350, targeting 1.4250, 1.4200, and final target at 1.4100. Keep stops above 1.4450 and trail with tight risk as targets are hit.

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: Has last week reached all time highs with desire to pusher higher in the weeks to come. Current objective point on long side is 1.1150 area. A break to that region may happen early this week, a deeper pullback is expected or consolidation is expected ahead of a move higher to the 1.1300-1.1400 region. Recommendation: Bullish Bias look for entry to the 1.1150 area. Expect a deeper pullback after that objective is achieved. Support 1.0958, 1.0885, 1.0820. Resistance 1.1030, 1.1080, 1.1150

UK Pound Sterling / Japanese Yen

GBPJPY: Just bounced off of upper trend line from 140.00 and looks to continuing the downtrend back to lows of 125.00 area. If these bottoms hold we will look to go long. Current outlook is same for all YEN pairs, play with caution of the BOJ possible intervention. Recommendation: Bearish Bias with support at 125.80, 124.80. Resistance at 127.18, 128.00, 128.44, 129.30.

New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) / United States Dollar

NZDUSD: Has just created a new highest high last week around .8790. We see for shortterm a move down to the mid .8000s before long continues up to .9000s. We see support at .8706 .8680 .8600 .8537 .8458. Recommendation: Short term Bearish opportunity, higher risk trade so tight risk is recommended. Looking for short trigger around .8700, keep risk at .8800 and targeting .8600 .8537 .8458., of course a break above .8800 negates this play.

July 31st Aug 6th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 13

Elite Global Trading

Euro / Japanese Yen

EURJPY: Has been struggling to break higher, current outlook is Bearish with a possible attempt to break trend line at the 110.00 area and go back down to the 108.00 area with an attempt to touch all time low of 105.00 region. If this current bottom holds around 110.00 we will wait and look for long entries, currently we are skeptical of YEN pairs, with the current levels a possibility of the BOJ intervening we take caution on shorts. Recommendation: Bearish Bias with tight risk and keeping your eyes on BOJ intervention possibility. Support levels 110.00, 109.50 108.30 107.60. Resistance: 111.50,112.70,113.66.

Euro / Canadian Dollar (Loonie)

EURCAD: Has a longer term picture of a possible recovery up towards the mid 1.500s, we have our eyes on this, we see an possible inverse head and shoulders pattern unraveling on the weekly chart, if the pattern holds on the next few months we may see this move start to happen. For short term we see another move down towards the recent lows of 1.3400 area. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for a short entry to test lows again this week. Support at 1.3585, 1.3500, 1.3400. Look for resistance at 1.3780, 1.3871, 1.4000

Euro / Swiss Franc

EURCHF: Has reached a new all time low near 1.1300. As everyone jumps to buying the Swiss Franc CHF, all the Swiss Franc pairs are trading at extremes. Current picture for this pair is way oversold, but one can't really judge how long it will stay oversold, we are looking for a sign for a recovery and position for a long, which is very risky, with tight risk and clear objective a natural correction here is due and will be a great play. We see currently possible consolidation prior to a larger recovery. We see recover up to 1.1700,1.1821, and 1.1950. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, safe plays are wait for rally and position foe shorts, riskier play would be look for clear indication of reverse and position for long with tight risk and clear objective. Resistance: 1.1485, 1.1523, 1.1705, 1.1830, 1.1950. A start to the week we may see a further extension on short looking for a new all time low. The long is a med term pick to keep an eye on for now short term view look for pair to continue to push lower.

UK Pound Sterling / Swiss Franc

GBPCHF: Again looking at the Swiss Franc as counter part this pair is also reaching new extremes with CHF gaining strength. Look to short on rallies, perfect trend line bounce last week and continued downtrend. GBPCHF will be looking for new all time low this week. Recommendation: Bearish Bias, look for shorts after rally. Longer term breakout opportunity to upside we will be patiently watching, once CHF looks to make a deeper recovery across the board. In meantime short plays.

July 31st Aug 6th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 13

Elite Global Trading

Weeks Event Risk

Keep a close eye on US Debt Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday will be important days: 8:30am USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing 10am NZD: Employment Change 6:45pm Sunday: CNY: Manufacturing PMI 9pm Thursday: EUR: German Factory Orders 6am Monday: GBP: Manufacturing PMI 4:30am EUR: Unemployment Rate 5am USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI 8:30am NZD: Labor Cost Index 6:45pm AUD: Building Approvals 9:30pm Friday: Tuesday: AUD: RBA Rate Statement 12:30am CHF: Retail Sales 3:15am GBP: Construction PMI USD: Personal Spending 8:30am AUD: Retail Sales/Trade Balance 9:30pm GBP: PPI 4:30am EUR: German Industrial Production 6am USD: Non-farm Employment Change 8:30am USD: Unemployment Rate 8:30am GBP: Official Bank Rate 7am EUR: Min Bid Rate 7:45am EUR: ECB press conference 8:30am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am JPY: Overnight Call Rate

Wednesday: GBP: Services PMI 4:30am EUR: Retail Sales 5am USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Elite Glob al Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau :

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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** Keep a close eye on US Debt Ceiling Vote, Tuesday & Wednesday