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Yes Bank Ltd. India's new age private sector Bank, is an outcome of the professional entrepreneurship of its Founder, Rana Kapoor. The Bank has fructified into a 'full service' commercial Bank that has steadily built Corporate and Institutional Banking, Financial Markets, Investment Banking, Corporate Finance, Business and Transaction Banking, Retail and Wealth Management business lines across the country. The Bank has a network of 185 branches across 149 cities in India.
FDI 8%
INVESTMENT RATIONALE
Indian Promoter 26% FII 46%
DII 7%
G-Sec Portfolio impervious to rising interest rates Yes Banks investments as on Q3FY11 stood at Rs.15,222 mn. comprising of ~72% invested in government bonds of which ~86% is categorized under Held to Maturity (HTM) category. Investments categorized beneath HTM category are not required to be MTM. As a result of high investments placed under HTM, We believe the bank is resistant against rising interest rates leading to minimal investment losses on the way forward. Branch Banking, the subsequent focus area In version 1.0 (2005-2010), the key trigger which facilitated the banks business to grow at 74% CAGR between 2006 to 2010 was its focus towards its wholesale banking segment which caters to the large and mid corporate. In version 2.0 (2010-2015) the bank will leisurely skew its interest towards its branch banking segment which at present constitutes a mere 10.1% of its Loan portfolio as on Q3FY11. We expect the bank to augment this share to ~13% by FY13E. Rising Interest Rates and Escalating CASA deposits to benefit NIMs 90% of Yes Banks deposits are on a floating basis as on Q3FY11. Yes Banks loan book is 55% fixed and most of which is maturing in June 2011 and 45% of the loan portfolio is on a floating basis. As the entire loan portfolio gets reset in the Q1-Q2FY12, we expect the banks NIMs to inflate and contribute to its profitability.
Source: BSE Financials (Rs. Mn.) Particulars FY10 NII 7,880 NIMs (%) 3.1 Op. Profit 8,633 PAT 4,777 PAT Gr (%) 57.2 EPS (Rs.) 14.1 BVPS (Rs.) 91.0 ABVPS (Rs.) 90.6 Key Ratios P/E (x) P/ABV (x) C / I (%) RoAA (%) RoAE (%) CD Ratio (%) Spread (%) PCR (%) NNPA% CASA (%) FY10 19.33 3.00 36.68 1.61 20.27 82.81 1.84 78.43 0.06 10.52
FY11E 12,174 2.9 11,769 6,848 43.3 19.7 106.7 106.1 FY11E 13.77 2.56 36.00 1.50 20.17 79.15 1.91 75.60 0.06 10.80
FY12E 17,286 3.0 15,699 8,736 27.6 25.2 129.0 128.0 FY12E 10.79 2.12 35.75 1.36 21.37 79.83 2.00 72.00 0.08 12.60
FY13E 24,046 3.1 20,812 11,485 31.5 33.1 158.2 156.7 FY13E 8.21 1.73 35.50 1.33 23.06 80.53 2.13 71.00 0.09 15.60
I year Performance comparison Yes Bank v/s BSE_Bankex 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Valuation
Yes Bank BSE_BANKEX
Analyst: Vikesh P. Mehta Tel No.:+91 22 2281 9012, Mob: +91 9819 602 602 Email: vikesh.mehta@skpmoneywise.com
At CMP of Rs.272, the stock is trading at a P/BV of 2.55x, 2.11x, and 1.72x for FY11E, FY12E and FY13E respectively. We have used twostage Gordon growth model to derive the implied forward FY13E P/BV multiple of 2.44x to achieve a target price of Rs. 386 with an investment horizon of 18 months. www.skpmoneywise.com Page 1 of 13
BANK OVERVIEW
Private sector lender Yes Bank is an aggressive young bank, is an outcome of the professional entrepreneurship of its founder Rana Kapoor and his highly competent top management team. Yes Bank has been able to deliver a sizeable performance since going public in July 2005, it has been able to grow its balance sheet size at ~72% CAGR over FY06 and FY10.
The bank expects to expand its present network of 185 branches to 220, 450, 750 branches by FY11E, FY13E, FY15E respectively.
A key rationales behind Yes Banks successful growth tale is its management panel which has been teamed up from various private as well as global banks and institutions, having carried experience from diverse segments the management has been able to drive up its business operations at a rapid pace. Yes Bank has a unique operating model distinct from other traditional banks established in India. The bank follows a wholesale business model. There are four business verticals in the bank: a) Corporate & Institutional Banking. b) Commercial Banking. C) Business Banking-SME. D) Retail Banking. The Corporate & Institutional Banking business segment provides comprehensive financial and risk management solutions to clients having a turnover of over Rs. 2,000 crs. The commercial banking segment services the enterprises with an annual turnover between Rs. 200 crs. to Rs. 2,000 crs. Business banking is a dedicated business unit to service SMEs India. The bank provides fund based lending to SMEs with an annual turnover between Rs. 20 crs. to Rs. 200 crs. Retail Banking caters to the banking and wealth management needs of individuals and small businesses. These customers are currently being served through an extensive network of 185 branches spread across 149 cities in India.
Chart 1: Number of branches FY15E FY14E FY13E FY12E FY11E FY10 FY09 750 575 450 325 220 150 117 200 400 600 800
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Most of the investments are placed under HTM category which are not marked to market.
Indias WPI has been consistently on an upward trend due to spiraling prices of primary articles since the beginning of CY10, in order to restrain the inflation RBI began to increase the policy rates (repo and reverse repo rates) in an intended manner. The sense of rising inflation and subsequent increase in policy rates is evident in the movement of GIND 10 year index, which is the benchmark index for 10-year Indian government bond. Yes Banks investments as on Q3FY11 stood at Rs.15,222 mn. comprising of ~72% invested in government bonds of which ~86% is categorized under Held to Maturity (HTM) category. Investments categorized beneath Held to Maturity category are not required to be marked to market. As a result of high investments placed under Held to Maturity, We believe the bank is resistant against rising interest rates leading to minimal investment losses on the way forward.
WPI
Source: Bloomberg, SKP Research
Primary Articles
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In version 2.0 (2010-2015) the bank has identified SME and retail as its next focus area to fuel its business. The Bank will leisurely skew its interest towards its branch banking segment which at present constitutes a mere 10.1% of its Loan portfolio as on Q3FY11. We expect the bank to increase this share to ~13% by FY13E. The bank expects to achieve this by rolling out newer branches in a phased manner. The bank expects to expand its network to expand to ~220 branches in FY11E, ~450 branches by FY13E and gradually to 750 branches by FY15E. On the back of larger branch network the bank expects to focus more on current accounts than savings accounts and influencing on the relationship with the current account holders the bank expects to hoist its savings accounts. The CASA at present is bifurcated as 85% CA and 15% SA, gradually the bank expects to develop to 70% CA and 30% SA by FY15E. On the liabilities face, the bank is more dependent on high cost wholesale deposits as CASA forms a mere 10.2% of total deposits. CASA deposits are expected to increase by 62% CAGR over FY10-FY13E, thus increasing the CASA ratio to 15.6% by FY13. Historically, Yes Bank has been able to grow its advances and deposits at ~74% CAGR over FY06 till FY10. We believe in Yes Banks growth story and expect its advances to grow by 40% CAGR between FY10 and FY13E from Rs. 221,931 mn in FY10 to Rs. 615,248 mn in FY13E, whereas deposits are expected to grow by 42% CAGR from FY10 till FY13E from Rs. 267,986 mn in FY10 to Rs. 763,995 mn in FY13E.
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Rs. In Bn
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
Growth (RHS)
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2012E
CRR
Chart 8: Credit and Deposit Growth 30% 25% 20%
Rs. in Mn.
Repo Rate
1.00 0.80 0.60 12.60% 0.40 0.20 8.73% 0.16 2009 10.52% 10.80% 0.27 2010 0.42 2011E 0.57 2012E 0.76 2013E 15.60%
20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% Total Deposits (LHS) CASA Ratio (RHS)
Deposits
Advances
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Yes Banks focused knowledge based diversified lending towards sunrise sectors and ~68% exposure of its loan portfolio to credit worthy large and mid corporate has also contributed towards upholding a healthy asset quality. GNPA stood at Rs. 728 mn. and NNPA stood at Rs. 174 mn for 9MFY11, which lies under Yes Banks comfort zone. The asset quality has remained healthy and the highest amongst its peers in the industry despite recent qualms regarding MFI lending and exposure to the telecom service providers towards 2G spectrum. Advances to 2G telecom service providers stood at ~Rs. 240 crs. or ~7.6% of total loan book in Q3 FY11. The Bank restricted its lending to strong and well established incumbents in and circumvented towards advancing to fresh telecom service providers. Lending to recently controversial Micro-finance Institutions stood at ~0.94% of total advances in the latest quarter spread across 15 borrowers. The Bank reported zero slippages towards this sector. Consequently, we expect loan loss provisioning to moderate going forward and contribute to profitability.
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GNPA (LHS)
NNPA (LHS)
Sustainable profitability.
Yes Bank has been able to deliver exceptional profitability on account of strengthening net interest income, above industry growth in business and invariable development in efficiency ratio. Historically, Other Income too has played a pivotal role in the enhancement of net profit. Bank has been able to leverage on its unarguable list of large and mid corporate clients to cross sell fee income products.
The bottom line derived as a result has displayed an incomparable performance of return ratios. Return on Average Equity (ROAE) and Return on Average Assets (ROAA) ratios of the bank has improved over the years. The bank successfully delivered 1.5% ROAA and 21.3% ROE during Q3FY11. The return ratios could be strained marginally going forward given substantial branch expansion plans. The Banks Net Interest Income (NII) has grown 54% in FY10 from Rs. 5,112 mn to Rs. 7,880 mn. in FY10, we expect 45% CAGR in NII between FY10-FY13E to Rs. 24,046 mn. Yes Bank has shown a steady improvement in its efficiency ratio, historically its cost to income ratio has subdued from ~53% in FY07 to ~36.7% in FY10, we expect the C/I ratio to continue to progress further on the back of newer branches turning profitable, despite rising employee costs due to branch expansion.
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30,000 25,000
Rs. in Mn.
55%
54%
23% 21%
20,000 15,000
12,174 17,286 24,046
20%
1.61%
20%
1.50% 1.36% 1.33%
10,000
5,112
20% 10% 0%
5,000 -
7,880
FY09
FY10
2009
2010
2011E
2012E
2013E
ROAA (LHS)
ROAE (RHS)
PEER COMPARISION
Particulars Current FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E FY10 FY10 FY10 P/BV (x) Yes Bank Ltd. 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.6 20.3 20.2 21.4 23.1 3.1 20.6 12.9 Axis Bank Ltd. 3.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 19.2 18.6 20.2 20.9 3.8 15.8 11.2 ICICI Bank Ltd. 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 8.0 9.7 11.6 12.9 2.5 19.4 14.0 HDFC Bank Ltd. 4.6 3.9 3.4 3.0 16.1 17.0 16.3 17.3 4.3 17.4 13.3 KMB Ltd. 5.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 13.3 16.1 16.1 16.5 6.3 18.4 15.4 Average 3.7 2.8 2.4 2.1 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.1 4.0 18.3 13.3
KEY CONCERNS
Yes Bank has substantial branch expansion plans, any delay or alteration in timely execution of rolling out of branches could impact our valuations. The Bank is experiencing a shift from wholesale business model to branch banking model. Any deviation in implementing this could affect our estimates.
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Beta 1.31
Chart 16: 1 Year forward P / BV band 600 5x 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 4x 3x 2x 1x
Chart 17: 1 Year forward P / ABV band : 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar Mar-09 Mar-10 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x
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FY12E
FY13E
Growth (RHS)
Rs. in Bn
71% 70%
133 94 162 124 268 222 423 335 573 457 764 615
65% 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E C/D ratio Advances
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FINANCIALS
(All data in Rs. Mn. unless specified) Income Statement Net Interest Income Other Income Net Total Income Non Interest Expenses Other Provisions Pre-tax Income Tax Provisions Post-tax Income Balance Sheet ASSETS Cash and Bal. with RBI Bal. with Banks & Call Money Advances Investments Fixed Assets Other assets Total Assets LIABILITIES Credit / Deposit Capital Reserves & Surplus Deposits Borrowings Other Liabitlies Total Liabilities Per Share Data Shares Outstanding EPS (Rs.) BV / Share (Rs.) ABV / Share (Rs.) 3,397 27,499 267,986 47,491 17,453 363,825 FY10 340 14.1 91.0 90.6 3,468 33,545 423,417 64,113 22,689 547,232 FY11E 347 19.7 106.7 106.1 3,468 41,259 573,011 88,475 30,630 736,843 FY12E 347 25.2 129.0 128.0 3,468 51,400 763,995 123,865 42,882 985,611 FY13E 347 33.1 158.2 156.7 CRAR Tier I 20.6 12.8 16.5 10.7 14.6 10.1 13.3 9.8 P / B (X) P / ABV (X) P/E VI. Capital Sustenance (%) 3.0 3.0 19.3 2.5 2.6 13.8 2.1 2.1 10.8 1.7 1.7 8.2 V. Valuation Investment / Deposit CASA 82.8 38.1 10.5 79.1 36.1 10.8 79.8 35.3 12.6 80.5 35.2 15.6 19,953 6,779 221,931 102,099 1,155 11,907 363,825 31,916 8,468 335,116 152,816 1,650 17,266 547,232 41,613 10,028 457,434 202,104 2,356 23,309 736,843 53,630 12,988 615,248 269,128 3,150 31,467 985,611 IV. Business (%) Business per Employee Profit per Employee Business per Branch 161 1.57 3,266 181 1.63 3,448 196 1.66 3,171 204 1.70 3,065 III. Staff Productivity (Rs. Mn.) FY10 7,880 5,755 13,635 5,002 1,368 7,265 2,487 4,777 FY10 FY11E 12,174 6,216 18,390 6,620 1,549 10,220 3,373 6,848 FY11E FY12E 17,286 7,148 24,434 8,735 2,660 13,038 4,303 8,736 FY12E FY13E 24,046 8,220 32,267 11,455 3,670 17,142 5,657 11,485 FY13E Ratios I. Asset Quality (%) GNPA / G. Adv. NNPA / N. Adv. GNPAs / Total Assets NNPAs / Total Assets PCR II. Profitability (%) NIM ROAA ROAE Efficiency Ratio Burden Ratio Interest Expense Ratio Avg. Yield on Advances Avg. Yield on Assets Avg. Cost of Deposits Avg. Cost of Funds 3.1 1.6 20.3 36.7 115.1 53.7 10.2 8.0 5.8 6.2 2.9 1.5 20.2 36.0 93.9 58.4 10.3 8.3 6.3 6.4 3.0 1.4 21.4 35.8 81.8 60.6 10.4 8.5 6.4 6.5 3.1 1.3 23.1 35.5 71.8 61.3 10.6 8.7 6.5 6.6 0.27 0.06 0.17 0.04 78.4 0.25 0.06 0.15 0.04 75.6 0.27 0.08 0.17 0.05 72.0 0.30 0.09 0.19 0.05 71.0 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
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Member: NSE BSE NSDL CDSL NCDEX* MCX* MCX-SX FPSB *Group Entities INB/INF: 230707532, BSE INB: 010707538, CDSL IN-DP-CDSL-132-2000, DPID: 021800, NSDL IN-DP-NSDL: 222-2001, DP ID: IN302646, ARN: 0006, NCDEX: 00715, MCX: 31705, MCX-SX: INE 260707532
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