ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN

PREFACE
Pakistan is presently facing a serious energy crisis. Despite strong economic growth during the past decade and consequent rising demand for energy, no worthwhile steps have been taken to install new capacity for generation of the required energy sources. Now, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through frequent power shutdowns. Pakistan needs about 14000-15000MW electricity per day, and the demand is likely to rise to approximately 20,000 MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11, 500 MW per day and thus there is a shortfall of about 3000-4000MW per day. This shortage is badly affecting industry, commerce and daily life of people. All possible measures need to be adopted, i.e., to conserve energy at all levels, and use all available sources to enhance production of energy. It seems that the government is considering importing energy from Iran and Central Asian Republics and using indigenous sources, such as, hydel, coal, waste, wind, and solar power, as well as other alternate and renewable energy sources, besides nuclear power plants for production of energy. Needless to say that if the country wishes to continue its economic development and improve the quality of life of its people, it has to make serious efforts towards framing a coherent energy policy. The Factfile includes selected articles and news items on the subject appearing in the media from 2nd July 2004 till 10th July 2008.

PAKISTAN: POWER CRISIS FEARED 2007

The survey said household sector has been the largest consumer of electricity accounting for 44.2 per cent of total electricity consumption followed by industries 31.1 per cent, agriculture 14.3 per cent, other government sector 7.4 per cent, commercial 5.5 per cent and street light 0.7 per cent. Keeping in view the past trend and the future development, WAPDA has also revised its load forecast to eight per cent per annum as against previous estimates of five per cent on average. Even the revised load forecast has also failed all assessments due to which Authority has left no other option but to start load management this year, which may convert into scheduled load shedding over a period of two year, sources maintained.

The country needs a quantum jump in electricity generation in medium-term scenario to revert the possibilities of load shedding in future due to shrinking gap between demand and supply of electricity at peak hours. According to an official report, the gap between firm supply and peak hours demand has already been shrunk to three digit (440 MW) during this fiscal and will slip into negative columns next year (-441 MW) and further intensify to (-1,457 MW) during the financial year 2006-07. The report maintained that the difference between firm supply and peak demand is estimated at 5,529 MW by the year 2009-10 when firm electricity supply will stand at 15,055 MW against peak demand of 20,584 MW. Chairman WAPDA Tariq Hamid at a Press conference early this year warned about the possible energy crisis and stressed the need for quantum jump in power generation. The experts say it could only be possible through a mega project of hydropower generation; otherwise the gap between firm supply and peak demand will remain on the rise. They said the generation power projects, which are due to commission in coming years are of low capacity and will not be able to exceed the surging demand of the electricity. They say no power generation project will commission during this fiscal year and the total installed capacity of electricity generation will remain 19,478 MW to meet 15,082 MW firm supply and 14,642 MW peak demand. Giving details of projects, the sources said Malakand-lll (81MW), Pehur (18MW) and combined cycle power plant at Faisalabad (450MW) are planned to be commissioned during the year 2007. Mangla Dam raising project would also add 150 MW capacity to the national grid by June 2007. Besides this, Khan Khwar (72MW), Allai Khwar (121MW), Duber Khwar (130MW) and Kayal Khwar (130MW) are expected to be completed in 2008 along with Golan Gol (106MW) and Jinnah (96MW). Moreover, Matiltan (84MW), New Bong Escape (79MW) and Rajdhani (132MW) are expected by 2009 while Taunsa (120MW) is likely to be completed by 2010. Sources say WAPDA has also planned to install a high efficiency combined cycle power plant at Baloki (450MW), which is expected to be completed by 2010. In addition of these, power plant 1 & 2 of 300 MW each at Thar Coal with the assistance of China are also planned for commissioning in 2009, sources said. Moreover, efforts are also under way with China National Nuclear Corporation for the construction of a third nuclear power plant with a gross capacity of 325 MW at Chashma, they added. When contacted, a WAPDA official said there is no power shortage in the country at present as the Authority still has over 1,000 MW surplus electricity. However, he admitted that the shortage may occur in the year 2007 and onward and said the Authority will utilise all options including running of IPPs plant at full capacity to avert any possible crisis. About the system augmentation to bring down line losses, the official said the Authority would spend Rs 3.5 billion on augmentation of distribution lines this fiscal while another Rs 5

billion will be consumed on transmission lines. We have been negotiating Rs 9 billion loan with a consortium of local banks to upgrade and augment the power transmission system, he disclosed. The official further said that five new transmission lines of 220-KV would be installed by the end of 2004, that would ensure smooth supply to the consumers. He expressed full trust on present transmission and distribution system and said it could easily sustain the load of total installed power generation in the country.

http://www.energybulletin.net/883.htm
Pakistan is most likely to face a major energy crisis in natural gas, power and oil in the next three to four years that could choke the economic growth for many years to come, official estimates and energy experts suggest. Pakistans total energy requirement would increase by about 48 per cent to 80 million tons of oil equivalent (MTOE) in 2010 from about 54 MTOE currently, but major initiatives of meeting this gap are far from turning into reality, said a former petroleum minister on condition of anonymity for the simple reason that he had also served the present government. Major shortfall is expected in the natural gas supplies, he said. According to official energy demand forecast, he added, the demand for natural gas, having about 50 per cent share in the countrys energy consumption, would increase by 44 per cent to 39 MTOE from 27 MTOE currently. Partly contributed by gas shortfalls, the power shortage is expected to be little over 5,250MW by 2010, he said, adding that the oil demand would also increase by over 23 per cent to about 21 million tons in 2010 from the current demand of 16.8 million tons. This would leave a total deficit of about nine million tons of diesel and furnace oil imports, he said. Since the gas shortfalls were expected to be much higher, the country would need to enhance its dependence on imported oil, thus increasing pressure on foreign exchange situation, he added. Last years oil import bill amounted to about $6.5 billion compared with about $3.5 billion in 2004-05, mainly because of higher international oil prices - a burden expected to be even higher in future as a result of growing Middle East crisis. Current years oil import bill has again been projected by the government at about $6.5 billion on last years average prices, which have started to rise in the recent days. According to the former minister, the government had planned five major initiatives to meet these energy requirements. They included three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as energy hub and LNG import. However, four of these measures, including the three import pipeline projects, show no signs of progress for various reasons while concentration on energy facilities in Gwadar would chiefly depend on security situation, besides oil and gas import pipelines. Planning Commission sources said the government had planned to add an overall power generation capacity of about 7,880MW by 2010. Of this, about 4,860MW is to be based on natural gas, accounting for 61 per cent of capacity expansion.

However, the gas-based power expansion of about 4,860MW would remain in doubt since these estimates were based on gas import options for completion in 2010, 2015 and 2020, said the sources. The fifth initiative of LNG import was on schedule and would start delivering about 0.3 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFD) by 2009 and another 0.5 BCFD by 2015, said the sources. Petroleum ministry officials are not ready to speak on record about gas import options and resultant overall energy shortfalls because of recent political developments on Iran -Pakistan-India pipeline project and security situation in Afghanistan and non-certification of gas reserves in Turkmenistan. According to World Bank estimates, a demand gap (supply shortage) of about four per cent of the total demand, is expected in 2010. Even though this gap would be met by LNG imports, it would again increase to 20 per cent of the total demand. The bank said the indigenous gas supply would fall from 32.6 MTOE in 2010 to 20.7 MTOE in 2025 while the gas supply-demand gap would rapidly increase as demand is expected to grow continuously, quadrupling in 2025. As per the World Bank estimates, the gas imports will represent almost 67 per cent of natural gas supply in 2025. One can, therefore, gauge the quantum of shortage in case import pipelines are not materialised. Pakistans gas reserves are 32.8 TCF at present, with reserve-production ratio in the order of 27 years, considering that domestic production does not grow substantially. Power sector demand represents 41 per cent of total gas consumption, general industries 24 per cent, fertiliser 7.8 per cent and domestic-commercial 22.8 per cent, cement 1.5 per cent and CNG 2.8 per cent. Demand growth has been up to 8.5 per cent in recent years and is expected to be seven per cent with power industries and domestic consumption accounting for 82 per cent. Gas demand already displays seasonal pattern with national demand growing in winter beyond transmission capacity. Therefore, supplies to large users mainly industries and power plants are curtailed during winter months to ensure supplies to domestic, commercial and small industries. Annual production at present is about 1.16 TCF.

http://www.dawn.com/top16.htm

WASTE TO ENERGY IS NEEDED IN PAKISTAN:

Growing urbanisation and changes in the pattern of life, give rise to generation of increasing quantities of wastes and its now becoming another threat to our already degraded environment. However, in recent years, waste-to-energy technologies have been developed to produce clean energy through the combustion of municipal solid waste in specially designed power plants equipped with the

most modern pollution control equipment to clean emissions. Yet, solid waste management practices differ for developed and developing nations. In developing countries like Pakistan, institutions charged with the responsibility to make decisions on solid waste management, operate in the enormous information, policy and strategy vacuum and lack therefore the ability to address this looming environmental disaster. The perfect case study of information gap in selection of appropriate methodology to dispose municipal waste exhibited by the apex civic authority of Pakistan is when the capital development authority has finally decided to solve the ever-increasing volume of municipal waste by landfill in groundwater recharge area. While in developed countries, landfills are now bracketed as obsolete and mines of the future after observing several problems like pollution and contamination of groundwater by leachate and residual soil contamination after landfill closure and simple nuisance problems. This is the very reason why in the United States sanitary landfill techniques have steadily decreased from 8,000 in 1988 to 1,767 in 2002. Extensively focusing on turning waste to energy, municipal authorities in USA have realised the contribution of waste to an increasing electricity shortage. Today in America, 2500 MW are solely generated by the waste-to-energy plants. Many other countries in the world, Sweden, Japan included, have applied this technology since the last 20 years. In the sub continent, India installed three projects to produce electricity from waste with a total capacity of 17.6 MW. Although these made in India power plants are generating electricity by direct incineration, causing pollution and must be upgraded by sophisticated monitoring systems to check pollution. These examples are enough to establish that CDAs ignorance of modern technologies is surely not simply a lack of access to information, but questions the professional capabilities of the planners within its corridors. The site selected for the landfill project is at Kuri, an ancient city of Potwar and its aerial distance is hardly five kilometres from sector G-5, known as the nucleus of Islamabad. Though, in July 2003, the same site was considered for a landfill project but UNDP out rightly rejected and warned that environmental cost would be considerable, besides air pollution, contamination of groundwater if Kuri was selected as a landfill project. JICA in 1988 also compiled a detail investigation report, which established that the area is the recharge zone of the aquifer catering for more than 50 per cent of the twin cities drinking demand. Based on these serious environmental constraints, as its location is up a slope and within the flood plain of Gumrah River, the recharge basin of the twin cities aquifer, the site was rejected. Recent floods substantiated the finding of all the reports, as the site is definitely within the flood plains of the Gumrah River and would need to be protected on a priority basis, especially as water shortages is now a permanent problem of the twin cities.

Whoever selected and approved the site for the disaster of the future, showed ignorance of the above reports and absolute ignorance of the adverse environmental impacts this project would create. Is this ignorance simply unawareness of the planners or is it complete apathy towards anything old, which rejects that Kuri is recorded as an ancient city of the Potowar Region. As CDA is constantly focusing on developing tourist attractions, why not preserve this historical area? Aware of the unprofessional management at CDAs varied directorates one anticipates leachates from the landfills, polluting the amazingly still clean groundwater table, while the wind will carry waves of leaking gases towards the G-5 Sector, farther adding to the prevalent health hazards of the capital. Access to clean water has been given the top priority flag by the president. Selecting a site along the Gumrah River, known to recharge the groundwater along its winding course through Chak Shehzad and Kanna shows the warped priorities of the planning commission that approves projects, the ministry of interior responsible for CDA affairs and the CDA itself. Had CDA only followed the minutest details provided in the Federal Capital Commission Reports of 1960 by the earlier planners of the capital city, Islamabad today would have been a model for the rest of Pakistan. The CDA ignored the most recent seismic zoning report of the region too. According to EPA US regulations, duly adopted by Pakistans EPA, there should be no significant seismic risk within identified landfill sites. Kuri is within a highly sensitive earthquake zone, according to new seismic zoning maps prepared after the earthquake 2005. An earthquake having a magnitude of 4.2 was recorded on July 7, 1989 and its epicentre was at a distance of 10 kilometres from Kuri. Had the spread of this infectious disease the vacuum of information been contained in time, CDA would surely have been able to diagnose that the estimated cost of two billion rupees for the landfill site, would have sufficed for setting up an energy-to-waste plant in the city. With loadshedding a permanent crisis in Pakistan, adding some extra megawatts through waste-to-energy could have solved many ills in the rapidly growing energy needs. A vacuum of information has not allowed the CDA to communicate either with the alternate energy development board, established by the federal government in 2003. This board was given the mandate to solve the energy crisis that is facing this country through renewable technologies. Although advertisements in the printed media asked for feasibility studies of waste-to-energy units for ten cities of the country, the twin cities were ignored. Had mutual interactions been part of the government systems, the funds available to the CDA for the ill fated sanitary landfill, and the technical know-how of alternate energy development board (AEDB), Islamabad could have prided itself of being the first ever waste-to-energy unit in the country today. The decision to construct a landfill project at extremely sensitive areas need not only to be reviewed but also need to empower the AEDB to generate electricity from waste to cope with the energy demand in the lines of international environmental commitments avoiding violation of the Kyoto Protocol and Stockholm Convention. Now decision-makers have to choose whether to allow

the CDA to go ahead with the landfill project, to dump waste for adding more pollution and contamination of groundwater or to allow production of environment friendly energy.

http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/waste-to-energy-pakistan

TYPES OF ENERGY Energy can be differentiated as

1. Kinetic energy 2. Potential energy

Kinetic Energy
1. Sound 2. Wind 3. Mechanical for example moving piston in a cylinder 4. Electrical energy. Electricity, lightning 5. Thermal Energy, Heat, hot water, steam 6. Light , microwaves, x-rays , solar, ultra violet rays

Potential energy
1. Gravitational energy. Hydro power, ball above ground 2. Spring . stretched rubber band 3. Magnetic planetary poles 4. Nuclear , fission, fusion, heavy water uranium 5. Chemical , gasoline, batteries, oil natural gas, gun powder, coal, wood

http://www.energy.com.pk/energytypes.htm

THERMAL ENERGY
Thermal Energy is the oldest type of energy. With all known history available, Wood was always used for heating and cooking. In 2nd world war fossil fuels entered in the form of coal to get the energy, until liquid fuels were discovered and because of their convenience of transportation they took over as major contributors of the energy source. Once the steam engines were invented then the coal or liquid fuel was burnt in the boilers and the heat produces steam which is used to drive electrical generators, or any other mechanical device. Rudolph diesels invention of diesel engine revolutionaries the energy concept and today we see sine the majority of machines moving on diesel engines. Diesel engines can be 2 stroke or 4 stroke type. They can be in line or arranged in V or even W shape. They can be single acting or double acting. Another method of converting thermal energy to mechanical energy is by the gas turbines. Turbines are also used to run by steam or hot gases which are produced by igniting fuel.

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For converting thermal energy to electrical energy alternators are used to drive on constant

RPM. The choice of gensets strictly depends on the requirement of the client, before ordering a power plant following points to be considered 1. Expected demand of the power. 2. Type of fuel required 3. Space available for the power plant 4. Avilability of genset 5. Avilability of local service back up and stock of parts 6. Price is paramount importance and hidden expenses should be looked carefully The major manufacturers and suppliers of Gensets based on internal combustion engines are given below 1. MAN 2. Wartsila 3. Caterpillar 4. Jen Bacher 5. Waukesha 6. Mitsubishi 7. Detroit Diesel 8. Rolls Royce Internal combustion engine can obtain 30-50% thermal efficiency. It means that around 50% energy is wasted in the form of exhaust gases , cooling systems and radiation. Therefore for larger plants heat recovery systems are utilized. In Pakistan due to attractive gas prices this is a general trend that gas operated power plants are preferred if gas connections are available.

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The gas gensets are available from less than 1 MW sizes to 6 MW configuration. Normally they are V type and 12,16 18 and 20 cylinder configuration. In addition some models are available on duel fuel technology which can be operated simultaneously on gas and furnace oil. The price of a 3 MW gas genset can be expected around 1 Million $. However low RPM engines will be more costly Unit cost of fuel on gas genset can be evaluated as follows

Fuel Cost Rs 2.7 (depends upon the genset ) Maintenance Rs 0.20 Lubricating Oil Rs.0.10 Chemical R Rs. 0.02 General stores Rs. 0.01 Labor Rs.0.10 Overhead +Insurance Rs.0.07 Financing 0.20 I The engines which are running the fuel cost is only variable and can be calculated by multiplying fuel cost by a factor of 225. (225 grams / KWHR is an average net fuel consumption expected.)

http://www.energy.com.pk/THERMAL_%20ENERGY.htm

HYDEL ENERGY
Water flowing in the rivers has kinetic energy. Once they are used to drive the turbine and produce electricity the power generated as Hydel Energy. Power produced by the turbines depends on quantity of water flowing/minute and the head of water available. Mostly river flows by melting glaciers on high mountains. Once the water start flowing in the valleys it changes its head very rapidly. This energy can be converted into electrical energy. Two method are normally used:-

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1. Dams 2. Run of River projects. In case of Dams the water flow is restricted by making a huge storage device and the head of water is increased, the water then is allowed to flow by means of gates and pass through the turbines, the head of reservoir level is maintained to provide uniform power, and the water stored in peak season additionally is used for irrigation purposes in dry seasons. In run of river projects the water is diverted through the tunnels and once it gains the head allowed to fall and pass through the turbines and back t river. the water in these projects is o continuously flowing and not being stored. Geographical situation is paramount importance in choosing a suitable site for the hydro project and it evolves a very serious time and money consuming study. Once a site is located further detailed feasibility study is required before proceeding any serious effort to start the work. The feasibility study should include following field work. 1. Detailed Mapping of the area 2. Topographic study of the area 3. Seismic refraction study 4. River flow data 5. Weather data containing, Temperatures, pressures, rain humidity 6. Water sampling and testing 7. Environmental study 8. Social impact 9. Wild life and fish study 10. Identification of stake holders of the area 11. Coring and getting samples of the soil at 50-200 meters depth 12. Laboratory testing of the cores samples 13. Tectonic study to evaluate earth quake dangers

http://www.energy.com.pk/hydel.htm

WIND ENERGY
Pakistan is facing acute shortage of energy. with 7% increase of its economy this short fall soon to slow down its economic growth and will shatter its dream to become one day a developed country. Most of its energy demand is being met with either Hydro power or thermal units. Pakistan is spending a very large amount of foreign exchange to purchase the furnace. The gas reserves already start depleting and oil markets are sky rocketing. To overcome this shortage Government take a initiative to investigate Alternate energy resources in Pakistan developed Alternate Energy Board

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AEDB. The Board is headed by Retd Air Marshal Shahid Hamid. identified 50,000 MW energy potential from wind resource Pakistan is blessed with a large resource of wind corridor. Although Pakistan meteorological Department was gathering wind data for quite long time But recently United States provided wind energy map for Pakistan which confirms a strong wind corridor in Sind coastal area. AEDB issued about 80 LOI to the investors List of LOI holders )to develop 50 MW wind farms. Out of which 15 are already issued the land and feasibility reports and financial closings are in progress. The following is a brief road map for developing a wind form 1. submission of proposal by sponsor 2. Review of proposal by AEDB 3. Posting of Bank Guarantee 4. issuance of letter of intent ( LOI ) 5. Feasibility study 6. Generation License 7. Tariff Determination 8. Submission of Performance Guarantee 9. Tariff determination by NEPRA 10. Submission of performance guarantee

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11. Issuance of Letter of support the first requirement of conducting feasibility study is to install a wind mast. The three major manufacturers of wind data are listed below. This document explains the method for installing weather station. 1. www.wilmers.com 2. www.ammonit.de 3. www.environdata.com.au

Geological, seismic, tectonic and environmental studies will be required along with Digital mapping and topography of the site for preparing a bankable feasibility study. A confirm EPC cost will also be needed for calculation of tariffs. Some large Denmark (27.9%)

manufacturers of wind turbines are given below 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. GE Wind, US (17.7%) Enercon,Germany (13.2%) Gamesa, Spain (12.9%) Suzlon, India (6.1%) Siemens, Denmark (5.5%) Repower, Germany (3.1%) Nordex, Germany (2.6%) Ecotecnia, Spain (2.1%)

WIND ENERGY BASICS

Power developed by a wind turbine can be mathematically shown in following formulae

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1/2xdensity of air x effective area

of rotor blade x cube of speed of wind

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The lay out and designing of the wind form can be done by wind energy planning and project software available in market in a reasonable price . One such software is Wind Pro which is a very convenient tool for project management. Environmental Protection agency require a detailed environmental impact study of the project. The following issues should be discussed detail 1. Birds collision or alteration of their migration routes 2. Noise impact 3. flickering

http://www.energy.com.pk/Wind%20Energy.htm

ECNEC APPROVES ENERGY PROJECTS

The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council ECNEC approved 23 projects worth 116.5 Billion Rs. The meeting was the last on the chairman ship of Prime Minister Mr. Shaukat Aziz whose term is expiring in three weeks. Energy sector was given prime consideration and the development of nuclear power projects approved. Pakistan facing acute shortage of energy and this is a wise decision to focus on nuclear energy which is renewable, cheap and environment free. with furnace reaching 100$ Large Hydel projects having social concerns ,wind turbines not available in market, and gas reserves depleting nuclear becomes most attractive option.

http://www.energy.com.pk/ecnec.htm

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ENERGY CRISIS IN PAKISTAN - II

A very common question asked in Pakistan is about the most burning issue in Pakistan? The answer you will get may be a list of hundreds of issues which start from Kashmir and will end on terrorism or militancy etc etc. Recently Mr. Mansha in an interview in CNN replied same question by giving a simple answer that water and energy are two most valid problems in Pakistan. Energy is a most problematic issue in the world. Whereas oil prices are steadily rising and no stability is seen in near future. Demands of energy from the emerging markets like China and India are growing day by day. Pakistan with official figurers of growth rate of 8% will have a definite rise in demand of energy for minimum 3% In USA the Gulf of Mexico is famous for oil producing and refining facilities. The prosperity of Houston is only due to oil industry being flourished. However the weather is not so kind on this area and hurricanes and tornadoes commonly hit the southern part of USA and Caribbean. Such is the volatility of fuel market now that just news of one hurricane developing in Caribbean shoots the oil prices in the world. A few years before oil was being traded on 20$ and no body ever thought that the weather conditions in the gulf can effect the oil market. Politically the Iran situation is deteriorating day by day where as Iraq condition is not stabilizing. Oil today is being traded around 65 $/, and the most vital question now is what will happen if the prices rises to 75 $ or even one hundred $/barrel. Pakistan with small manufacturing market, surrounded by major emerging economies like China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Bangladesh will be worst effected with the rise of energy prices. As a rule of thumb modern day manufacturing industries utilize at least 33% production cost in terms of energy prices. An increase of energy cost will effect their production cost and will force the manufacturers that either to reduce the labor cost or to remain competitive in market by improving the quality standards. Major giants China and India will benefit with this condition and smaller economies will suffer badly. Are our policy makers in Islamabad thinking for the gravity of problem which is now just standing on our door step? On famous oil embargo days a lot of research in Europe was carried out to find the alternate source of energy. The findings are available even in college books. However with the drop of oil prices such alternatives were uneconomical and therefore shelved.

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This is the time that Pakistan now asses very carefully that in case of oil prices rising to 75 $ what actions it should take to conserve energy and to find the alternate source of energy. A volunteer option for all energy users is to conserve energy. To make the plants more efficient and to see that each drop of petrol is saved .If we make serious study on this subject then we may achieve up to 20% saving in energy ,hence saving in our prod uction cost and making our products more attractive in international market. Of course the energy conservation programs cost money. However the investment will be rewarding and will be beneficial in long terms. Pakistans thermal units are day by day become aging, reducing their output power. With the rise of demand very soon we will see an acute shortage of energy and hence load shedding and shutting of the industrial units. This will seriously affect our competitiveness in the international market. A liberal and progressive policy with less bureaucratic approach towards energy producing units will help and bring attractive investment in Power sector. This is the responsibility of government to look for the alternate options for finding the energy resources. This investment can only be made by the federal government. This is the time of survival. Only the countries which are prepared for the worst will have a prosperous future.

http://www.energy.com.pk/energycrisis.htm

WIND POWER: A SOLUTION TO ENERGY CRISIS

TO encourage private investment in power sector, the government formulated power generation policy (2002). However, progress in commissioning of new power plants has been slow. In the four years since the revised policy was implemented, only one 225 MW gas-fired power plant has achieved financial close. The extended time lag is not entirely unusual as power projects based on natural gas and furnace-oil involve prolonged negotiations to secure contracts guaranteeing uninterrupted supply of fuel over the life of the project. Up till now, these contracts were entered into with state-owned energy companies such as PSO and OGDC. As these corporations are to be privatised, the government guaranteed fuel-supply contracts might not be available for new projects. This will make project financing more difficult since a private enterprise is more likely to default on its fuel-supply obligation over the 25-year life of a power project than a state-owned corporation. This could potentially result in further delays in implementing thermal power projects. As Pakistans energy needs are immediate , thermal and large hydro-electric plants may not be the solution because such projects may take between 4-12 years to become operational. In order to meet

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the energy requirements, the best option is exploiting wind energy because wind power projects can start generating electricity within two years. This is why wind energy is the fastest-growing source of power in the world and its globallyinstalled capacity has risen from 20,000MW in 2001 to 70,000MW in 2006. USA alone is installing 4,500MW per annum and China plans to install 20,000MW by the year 2020. India offers a good example of a country that has embraced wind energy and has added substantial electricity generation capacity within a short period of time! Its cumulative wind power generation capacity is 6,018MW, of which 4,500MW was installed in last five years! If Pakistan can realise half the growth that India has achieved, it can add 2,250MW to its electricity supply in the next five years, much more than possible by pursuing thermal power projects. In fact, wind energy can go a long way in meeting our acute energy shortage. It has also the following additional benefits. First, thermal electricity production ignores certain negative externalities. Externalities are implied costs which are not reflected in the price of a service. For example, a power plant running on natural gas will divert its limited supply from domestic consumption as well as vital industrial use. The total supply of natural gas is fixed and so its usage for power generation could result in a shortfall in other sectors of the economy. An example being the recent shut-down of 11 cement and two fertilizer plants due to gas-supply shortage. The economic loss resulting from deficiency of natural gas due to excessive reliance on gas-fired power generation is a negative externality. Similarly, in event of war or terrorism, supply routes of oil-tankers/ gas-pipelines will require extensive military protection. This extra cost of security is also a negative externality of thermal power plants. The exclusion of negative externalities understates the true cost of thermal power generation and makes it appear cheaper than it is. Compared to thermal power generation, wind power provides a secure and independent source of externality-free energy. Second, Pakistans current account deficit for FY2006 was recorded at $5.7 billion. The deficit is likely to worsen next year when it is expected to exceed $8 billion. The large increase in the current account deficit is mainly due to a 66.6 per cent surge in oil-imports, a large portion of it is due to increased demand from oil-fired power plants.

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Third,, thermal power tariff is vulnerable to spikes in oil prices similar to the one in early 2006 when the crude-oil prices jumped to $78. As the tariff regime compensates the IPPs for the cost of fuel, any sustained increase in oil prices will feed into the tariff calculation and result in higher cost of electricity. Exploiting wind energy makes economic sense since wind is free and it will make cost of electricity generation less vulnerable to temporary or permanent increases in oil prices. Lastly, wind power plants will be able to claim carbon-credits (certified emission reductions or CERs) for producing clean energy. CERs are already trading on European commodities exchanges and a global trading mechanism is being developed. Recently, an investment bank (Morgan Stanley) invested more than $3 billion in CERs. Therefore, CER prices are expected to rise as they continue to attract interest. Under the renewable energy policy, the CERs will be shared between the IPP and the government. This will have the effect of reducing the net-cost of wind power since revenues generated from sale of government-owned CERs will off-set a portion of the tariff paid to the IPP. Exploiting wind power offers the best route for attaining sufficiency in electricity production and reducing reliance on gas and imported furnace oil. Though wind power requires greater investment per mega-watt produced, however, unlike thermal power generation wind power avoids negative externalities such as additional cost of protecting fuel supply routes. Wind energy will help reduce the countrys oil-import bill and the cost of power generation less vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices. In addition to all these benefits, windfall from sale of carbon credits will make wind power an economically attractive proposition for meeting our electricity demand at an accelerated pace. Pakistan has a huge potential to develop wind power. The wind corridor in the coastal area of Sindh alone has the capacity to generate 50,000MW and AEDB has put in place a `renewable energy policy that is one of the most comprehensive and investor -friendly in the world. However, progress towards first wind power plant has been handicapped by a severe shortage in supply of wind turbines. The experience of other countries is that once the first project is executed, subsequent additions to capacity take place at an accelerated pace. This should be the case with Pakistan as well. It is important that the government continues to provide incentives to private investors in the form of an attractive tariff. This support is essential for the development phase of wind power sector and to realise its potential. Exploiting wind resources is not only in our economic interest, but serves our security interest as well!

http://www.dawn.com/2007/01/29/ebr13.htm

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ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK CONSIDERING 250 MILLION $ LOAN FOR SMALL HYDRO PROJECTS IN PAKISTAN
Indeed a very positive development if the terms of this loan finalizes soon. Pakistan is heading for acute shortage of energy and therefore all measures which can enhance the country's ability to produce clean energy will be welcomed by all quarters. The important question which should be looked is that how this loan will be distributed. We suggest that small packaged turbines of 10-50 KW to be assembled or manufactured in Pakistan and these turbines distributed to Local residents on easy loans. Since the turbines will be providing electricity for small group of houses therefore transmission expanses will be cut. This addition of power will not affect the existing shortage of electricity. Because beneficiaries will be mostly those people who does not have an electrical connection. But a lager saving will be in the form of forest wood which is now used for heating and cooking.

http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.html

ENERGY STRATEGY UPDATED

ECC on Wednesday approved 5.89 cents as an upfront tariff for Hydel projects. This is a revolutionary step taken by Pakistan Government to promote and encourage the investors in Hydel sector. In fact, this is the most logical and wise step adopted by the government for energy sector. This will encourage investors to come forward in Hydel sector. Pakistan is blessed with high mountains covered by glaciers and the rivers flowing across the country. PPIB, so far, processed 19 Hydel power projects to produce 4900 MW energy. Now we request honorable Minister to further persuade all government agencies to facilitate that these projects can be commissioned earlier than scheduled time. For this purpose, all red tapes are to be removed as far as possible. We learnt from reliable sources that Asrit-Kedam 209 MW power project is moving with record speed and the sponsors, Yunus Brothers, are highly committed to complete the project by 2011 instead of scheduled time 2014. RSWI, the consultants, are confident that the project is very promising and can be completed ahead of schedule. October was a month to be remembered when world oil prices shot up at record level and at the end of the month it was staying at 94$ level. It was almost certain that OGRA will allow the price hike for petrol and diesel from 1st November. However a cabinet meeting in the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz overruled this decision and kept the prices same. However, furnace prices were raised all time high by Rs 4210 /ton for domestic market. The price now stands on 34000 Rs./ton. This price hike can be justified in the light of rising crude oil prices but for domestic market the fuel tariffs now are not so realistic.

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The diesel and furnace prices are now standing at almost same level. A little intelligent power house manager can start using diesel instead of furnace which is cleaner and easier to burn or even can mix the diesel with furnace lowering its viscosity and make it more comfortable to burn. Those diesel generators, which were running as standby generators and were less efficient, will be more attractive for end users and the furnace power plants will be shut down. For those IPPs which run their plants on furnace, this increase will be shifted to utility company which is purchasing the power and hence to WAPDA, which is already deep in trouble. Meantime power shortage in whole country remained forcing the utility companies for load shedding. Mr. Liaqut Jatoi, Minister for water and power, called a press conference and expressed his views. He acknowledged the shortage of 1500 MW which will continue in next summer also. He told reporters that 13 memorandum of understandings have been signed to overcome the shortfall of 1500 MW power with foreign investors and an investment of 200 billion $ will be made in power sector. He also told that government is allocated 140 billion Rupees for the development of power sector including Bhasha Dam. He also told that 100 MW electricity will be imported from Iran. Presently we have three different critical problems in energy sectors which all need immediate attention:1. Current shortfall in production and availability of no standby power to meet any emergency. 2. Long term increase of shortfall with increased energy demands. 3. Rising fuel prices making the production cost high.

The projects in pipeline will start commissioning from 2014. All planning of Hydro and alternate energy is for next five years. So the biggest question now is what to do for the current situation. This is itself promising news that in spite of political uncertainty honorable Minister finds an opportunity to address the energy sector. In our opinion, situation now is so critical that it needs a diversified approach. We have to look for all options of existing as well as alternate energy resources. As earlier been written our existing machines are less efficient. The end users should be persuaded to replace with more efficient machines. We have to discourage use of larger cars and should develop mass transit systems in mega cities to avoid use of one car/person.

http://www.energy.com.pk/strategy.htm

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ENERGY CRISIS GROWING RAPIDLY

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President recently claimed that construction would soon begin in Karachi on one of the tallest buildings in the world. The project, according to the president, would show the world that Pakistan is a progressive and dynamic country and we are second to none. But unless Pakistan can light that building, President claims will look silly. Robust economic growth-rates over the past several years have encouraged Pakistan to ignore fundamental weaknesses in the economy. Yes, Pakistans economy is growing; thats the good news. The bad news is that with this growth comes higher energy consumption and greater pressure on the countrys energy resources. Unless Pakistanis the government, but individual citizens as well act now, the countrys future will indeed be dark, in more ways than one. At present, demand for energy exceeds supply. Power outages and planned power cuts (euphemistically termed load-shedding) are, for many, an everyday occurrence. In addition to their economic costs, energy shortages foster political instability. Last summer angry public protests in Karachi and riots in Liaquatabad demonstrated how close many Pakistanis are to reaching the limits of their patience. A widespread power outage affecting much of the country last September triggered panicky rumours of a coup. Earlier this year, the opposition and the ruling parties staged nearly simultaneous protest walkouts from the Senate following a disagreement over high domestic oil prices. This unrest may be only a foretaste of things to come. Absent drastic action, Pakistans energy situation is expected to get far worse in the years ahead. According to the governments own figures, by 2015, eight short years from now, energy demand in Pakistan will be nearly 22 percent greater than projected supply. By 2030, this energy shortfall will be 64 percent. What do these figures mean for Pakistanis? Higher prices, fewer jobs in a slowed economy, reduced opportunities, less comfort, heightened political turmoil. A Pakistan with serious energy shortages will not be a pleasant Pakistan. Today, oil and natural gas supply nearly 80 percent of Pakistans energy needs. However, the consumption of those energy sources vastly exceeds the indigenous supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces less than 20 percent of the oil it consumes. This fosters a dependency on imported oil that places considerable strain on the countrys finances. While the present situation with respect to natural gas production is not nearly as critical, Pakistans projected natural gas needs are expected almost to double (from 2004 levels) by 2010.

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On the other hand, hydropower and coal are perhaps under-utilised today, as Pakistan has ample potential supplies of both, at a time when these resources provide for relatively little of Pakistans energy needs. Pakistans proven coal reserves are the worlds sixth largest, and the government intends to increase the share of coal in the overall energy mix from 7 to 18 percent by 2018 a course that may make sense from an energy standpoint, but which carries troubling environmental implications. Meanwhile, provincial rivalries and widespread public opposition have significantly slowed the governments plans to build dams capable of generating electricity. Many Pakistanis argue that large hydroelectric projects should be a last resort, after low-cost energy conservation measures have been fully utilised. Nuclear power at this point accounts for barely one percent of Pakistans energy consumption. The government has announced plans to develop a generating capability of 8,800 megawatts (MW) of nuclear energy by 2020, compared to the countrys current output of less than 450 MW. But this goal is unlikely to be reached unless Islamabad is able to persuade the United States and other western countries to help it develop civilian nuclear technology, an idea certain to meet with resistance in the West. Pakistans renewable energy potential hydro, wind, and solar is substantial, although presently this potential remains largely untapped. Escalating petroleum prices in recent years have given Pakistan an additional incentive to invest in renewable energy technologies. In 2003, the government ambitiously declared that by 2015, 10 percent of the countrys total energy supply would come from renewable energy sources, and established the Alternative Energy Development Board to coordinate renewable energy promotion. Modest steps in the direction of greater reliance on renewable energy have already been taken. Nonetheless, renewable energy labours under severe handicaps in competing with conventional energy hidden subsidies that allow for lower conventional energy generation costs, for example, and policies that permit conventional energy to disregard the costs of the pollution it creates when pricing power. Unless renewable energy is given a level playing field, a major expansion of renewable energy generation is unlikely, and the governments goal of 10 percent by 2015 will not be met. Rural areas across India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal have all implemented successful clean and renewable energy initiatives. Bangladesh, for instance, has experienced

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considerable success with solar home systems financed through micro-financing. Pakistans neighbours have something to teach Pakistan, if only it will listen. Pakistans minister for petroleum and natural resources has identified energy as the most important input for the countrys economic development. The uninterrupted supply of energy to fuel the nations economy, he has declared, should be the highest priority for the countrys economic managers. Yet the record of past governments does not induce confidence. It's said by one of Pakistans most distinguished economic analysts, has written of a colossal failure of public policy over six decades, which has left the country with weak institutions, inappropriate pricing .The good news is that Pakistanis are not being asked to find a cure for cancer, or to discover entirely new methods or technologies in order to meet their energy needs down the road. There already exists widespread agreement on at least the broad outlines of an energy strategy for Pakistan. Pakistans energy managers know what needs to be done. But solemn promises and soaring rhetoric will not do the job. Preparing for Pakistans energy needs over the next quarter century will require long-term vision, a national commitment widely shared among the countrys political and business leaders, inspired leadership sustained from one government to the next, and most of all, political will to make and carry out difficult choices. Pakistan the country, not just the government of the day needs to decide that muddling through is not enough. Pakistan, as a country, has to get serious about creating an energy strategy, and then and this is the hard part about implementing it. Pakistan will not find itself alone in this task. Islamabads friends around the world believe that it is in their own national interests for Pakistan to succeed which means, among other things, that Pakistan succeed in its quest for energy security. At the end of the day, Pakistanis themselves must solve the problem of energy insecurity, but the outside world both the private and the public sectors can and will help. Energy matters for Pakistan. If Pakistan is to succeed in its ambitious plans for economic development, if it is to raise the grossly inadequate living standards of its people, if it is to achieve the economic growth necessary to ensure political stability, if it is to begin to address the many environmental problems that up to now have been largely ignored, and which have a hugely adverse impact on the daily lives of Pakistani citizens, if it is to live in peace with its neighbours, several of whom are directly impacted by Pakistani decision-

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making in the energy sector, if Pakistan is to move towards all these goals, Pakistanis must get serious about energy. http://www.articlealley.com/article_460564_22.html

EFFICIENT HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES TO MITIGATE ENERGY CRISIS

The federal government has entrusted Engineering Development Board (EDB) the task of adopting strategies in collaboration with relevant private.As per the governments initiatives to overcome the energy crisis in the country, the EDB held separate meetings on Saturday with leading local manufacturers of fans and pumps and finalised a strategy which would help enhance the efficiency of these domestic products. The increased efficiency will result not only in reducing consumption of energy and help conserve energy. The discussions focused on different aspects of the products including general design, quality of input material and the relevant benchmarks. EDB General Manager Zahid Yaqub, who chaired the meeting, informed the private sector representatives about the initiatives being taken by the government to overcome the energy crisis. One of the strategies adopted is to enhance the efficiency of different energy consuming household products. The meeting was informed that the electricity consumption during 2005-06 was 67,603GWh, out of which 45.4 per cent was consumed by the domestic sector. It was estimated that every household in Pakistan has a minimum of two to three fans and based on this figure, the total strength of fans was over 30 million. The President of Fan Manufacturers Association (FMA) called for reducing the rate of sales tax on various components of fans. Currently, the country has four leading manufacturers of fans as compared to nearly 200 small units manufacturing fans in different parts of the country. The FMA president alleged that the small units were using substandard components in order to keep the price low and ignoring energy conservation. According to the FMA statistics, the industry was manufacturing five million fans every year, out of which one million fans were exported fetching $30 million. The FMA also called for banning export of copper, the main component used in fan manufacturing. The meeting on pumps was told that the enhancement of efficiency of motors used in domestic industrial and agricultural sectors can save 3 to 5 per cent of the total electricity consumption. It was felt that quality of copper wire and silicon steel being used and manufacturing of motors and pumps should be increased by reviewing the standards developed by the PSQCA. The federal government has also decided to introduce standards for the manufacturing of gas geysers in order to enhance their efficiency and save energy.

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The Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority (PSQCA) has drafted the required standards for the production of gas geysers. The standards were being sent to all chambers of commerce and industry and manufacturers for their views before finalisation. The decision to this effect was taken at a meeting chaired by EDB General Manager Zahid J. Yaqub and attended by leading manufacturers of geysers, representatives of government agencies and senior officials of SNGPL. The meeting was informed that the energy efficiency of local geysers was much lower than the world standards. Therefore, research and development (R&D) was necessary to achieve global standard. The industry emphasised the need of duty-free import of various components of instant water heaters in order to introduce quality products in the market. Some manufacturers showed their willingness to produce high quality products, if investment on R&D was made by the government. ENERCON Managing Director Fareed Ullah Khan informed the meeting that the government was ready to accept any practical proposal from private sector for energy conservation. Addressing the meeting, the EDB general manager said that the government was undertaking initiative to minimise the magnitude of the energy crisis. One of the strategies adopted is to enhance the efficiencies of the different energy consuming household products. He added that the crisis should be converted into an opportunity to introduce high quality product in the market. Another area, which needs to be looked into, is the phasing out of inefficient incandescent bulbs in favour of more energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cut household energy costs. While CFLs are more expensive to buy than incandescent bulbs, they pay for themselves in lower power bills within a year. The switch to CFLs will result in household lighting costs falling by as much as 80 per cent, and the countrys annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling 2 million metric tons starting in 2010. Additionally, national electricity demand is expected to fall by 2,000 megawatts, or the equivalent of electricity generated by six power plants.

http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/10/ebr11.htm

POWER CRISIS & ALTERNATE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

The Energy Ministers statement that country will have to face the current energy crisis for next three years shows that he is unable to alleviate the misery of average Pakistani family and expects them to conduct daily routine chores in extreme summer heat without eight to sixteen hours of electricity. It brings us to : 1) Energy Minister has failed to come up with a solution to end energy crisis including nationalization of energy sector and adoption of alternate energy. 2) Which law permits countrys rulers to enjoy uninterrupted supply of electricity while the public who they serve suffers due to load shedding for no fault of their own?

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Can PM justify uninterrupted supply of electricity in VIP pockets across the country while average Pakistanis face unending power rationing? Similarly, will the rulers clarify for the ordinary people which law allows backup generators for hundreds and thousands of such VIPs nationwide whose number is growing by the hour? Shouldnt the countrys law lords be taking suo moto notices to end generator culture by unveiling number of generators being used for the VIPs, how much they cost to the national exchequer annually and which law authorizes the procurement, maintenance and fueling. There is no provision in countrys laws that authorize spending and regularization of billions of tax-rupees being wasted on the procurement, running and maintenance of these illegal generators.

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It is hoped concerned including Public Accounts Committee, citizen watch groups, legal fraternity will help countrys courts and PM to end wastage of tax dollars amidst reports that current 522 billion fiscal deficit will climb to 957 billion by the end of fiscal year 2007/8 and an another impending fuel prices increase before June 30. Thereby rendering immediate borrowing of some three billion US dollar loan to sustain countrys (failing) economy. These figures, energy ministers statement of requiring three-year gestation period for permanently ending long hours of load shedding and instead calling for adoption of energy conservation measures mandate PMs intervention to end the misery of an average Pakistani who has been forced to face summer heat and humidity for no fault of his own and pay for national policy failure and corruption. PM to show genuine support for peoples plight and as part of austerity drive should ordering following steps to end corruption in electricity and gas departments: 1) Inclusion of all VIP areas across the country including Islamabad into the current load shedding schedule. 2) Across the board removal of generators and air -conditioning/heating systems from govt. offices and residences to end VIP culture and save energy consumpti n. 3) Withdraw o subsidized/free electricity/gas for public servants, office holders and govt. departments because it encourages waste and negates basic spirit of countrys law. Otherwise, also lawmakers and govt. employees as public servants cannot have free gas and electricity paid by tax money, which is not extended to the masses. 4) The energy consumption of countrys domestic sector is less than total consumption of free electricity given to govt. sector. Therefore, PM should direct energy minister to save 500 MW by withdrawing free electricity from VIPs instead of forcing load shedding at grassroots. In fact the national leadership to set a personal example should share equal hours of load shedding if not more. Energy Minister in his statement on the floor of the house said that 50/100 MW of electricity will be generated from wind turbines. The amount reflects PPPPs flawed energy policy stressing on long and midterm plans thereby failing to provide immediate relief to masses. PM should issue immediate directions to incorporate feasible alternate energy technology based on alternate energy mapping for following reasons: 1) it can provide quick and sustainable solution for domestic sector that consumes less than 13% of total generated electricity. 2) In- step with international policy replace 20-25 percent of fossil fuel based current energy generation with alternate energy. 3) Cut fossil fuel imports to reduce foreign currency expenditure. 4) the plug and play and main grid compatibility of these alternate energy options can alleviate misery of masses suffering the heat at grassroots due to 8/16 hour protracted load shedding schedules. Therefore, it is need of the hour to permanently shift countrys domestic and agriculture sectors to alternate energy to permanently end load shedding, reduce electricity bills and cut costs on import of ever increasing fuel prices. In this regard, state of the art affordable wind turbines, solar panels, photovoltaic panels can play an important role to help realize the objectives: 1) The plug and play and grid ready alternate energy technology can bring immediate relief at grassroots and end three

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year waiting period. 2) These alternate energy solutions are cheaper because: (a) Due to their proximity to consumers it reduces line losses, which in turn reduces energy cost. For example, the alternate energy helps cut line losses internationally accepted standards of 5-7% against Pakistans reported line losses exceeding 45 percent of total production, (independent obs ervers put at 65%), which in turn forces per unit electricity prices increase to recover cost of lines losses and thefts.(b) It will allow energy generation at districts, tehsils and individual level, which in turn will help end corruption at all levels and cut over head costs. 3). Cheaper energy will promote small/medium industrial and manufacturing setups with multiple advantages including generation/sustenance of millions of jobs. 4) Cheaper sustainable alternate energy solutions will support and sustain countrys agri-sector offering critical advantages including produce increase and increasing employment opportunities. 5) Reduce energy related disputes between federation and provinces. The fact of the matter is alternate energy as highlighted in my article time for nationalized energy sector, http://pakobserver.net/200804/17/Articles03.asp is a cheaper and with 50,000 MW growth

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In short 4200 MW can be generated by 1600 wind turbines with each generating of 3 MWs. The shift to alternate energy can help Pakistan save 300 billion rupees (4.6 billion dollars) being paid in annual subsidies to energy companies at the rate of 25 billion rupees per month. The purchase of 1600 wind turbines should cost around 0.192 billion dollars (1600 x $1,20,000 per pi ce) which is not only e fraction of 4.6 billion dollars being currently paid under subsidy head but will also cut expenditure on import of costly furnace oil and ease pressure on foreign reserves etc. Logically, the adoption of alternate energy technology should reduce per unit cost with every passing year. All this makes sense in wake of growing oil prices. Finally, it is need of the hour to provide relief at grassroots by incorporating available alternate energy technologies in national energy policy. It will help agri-sector and the industrial sector can be facilitated to adopt alternate energy technology. It will help reduce expenditure on fuel imports and foreign reserve. The nationalization of energy sector and adoption of alternation energy technology can go hand in hand with already approved long and medium term policies and projects based on traditional resources of energy generation.

http://pakobserver.net/200805/03/Articles04.asp

GOVT TAKING STEPS TO OVERCOME ENERGY CRISIS

The government is taking all necessary steps to overcome the ongoing energy crisis, as it is well aware of the sufferings of masses and the difficulties being faced by the industry, said Raja Riaz, a senior Punjab Minister. At closing ceremony of two-day LCCI SME Fair 2008, he said, a crash energy conservation plan had already been rolled-out by the federal government to bridge demand-supply gap. He squarely blamed the previous government for the energy shortage, Had a go ahead been granted to smaller power projects around 600 MW electricity in yester years, the situation would have been far better. Look at India, it had built scores of dams during all these years, he added.

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He said a number good policies in the past could not give desired results for want of due attention towards their implementation. On energy crisis, he urged the Minister to tap alternate energy resources because it would help curtail governments import bill, which was going up with every passing day due to high oil prices in the international market. He said Federal government should immediately start construction of big water reservoir including Kalabagh Dam.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C17%5Cstory_17-5-2008_pg5_18

DEMAND-SUPPLY GAP INCREASES DRAMATICALLY TO 415MW

The electricity demand-supply gap in the city increased phenomenally to 415 Megawatts (MW) on Tuesday, after Karachi lost electricity from its nuclear power plant at KANUPP, officials concerned told The News. This shortfall is probably the highest recorded here during the current season. The total demand of power in Karachi during the last 24 hours was 2,228MW. A KANUPP spokesman said that the plant, which supplies 80MW to the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) tripped at around 10:20 a.m. Tuesday due to the loss of KESC transmission lines. Meanwhile, KESC officials said that Unit no. 6 of the Bin Qasim Thermal Power Plant has also been non-functional for the past couple of days, but would be online soon after the requisite repairs and maintenance. The ever-widening demand-supply gap means that almost every residential and commercial part of Karachi has been coming under prolonged and multiple spells of power load-shedding lasting over two-and-a-half hours each. These continue toll late into the night. Moreover, several areas of the city have experienced prolonged and recurring spells of power breakdown since Monday evening because system overload has caused the transmission and distribution mechanisms for electric supply in those areas to go haywire. Probably the worst electric supply situation during the last 24 hours in the city was in Federal B. Area Block-20 near the Edhi Centre. Residents of the area suffered power breakdowns after midnight Monday, and the electricity supply had not been restored until 05:00 p.m. Tuesday.

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Another complainant from Grey River Flats near the Korangi Creek said that the residential complex had gone without electricity from 01:00 p.m. to 05:00 p.m. on Tuesday. This was after recurring and prolonged power failures from Monday evening till Tuesday morning. Moreover, several parts of Malir, DHA, Lyari, PECHS, Gulistan-e-Jauhar, and Gulishan-e-Iqbal reportedly suffered hours-long power failures till Tuesday evening due to serious faults in the systems and installations of power transmission and distribution. In addition to this, several sprawling residential areas of the city, especially in the suburban parts, have been running dry for past couple of days because the prolonged spells of power breakdown and load-shedding have equally affected the water supply installations of the Karachi Water & Sewerage Board (KWSB).

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=113882

PAKISTAN FACING ACUTE POWER SHORTAGE

Pakistan is facing an acute power shortage that is hurting the economy, the minister of water and power warned, noting the need for conservation. Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said the shortage comes with the onset of severe summer, the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan reported Wednesday. Because of the shortage, electricity supply to homes is cut for several hours a day, further raising the people's misery index. Some estimates say the shortage may be as much as 4,000 megawatts, at a time when Pakistan is also gripped by soaring food prices. Ashraf, a member of Pakistan's new ruling coalition that took over in March after months of violence and political instability, said the government is determined to resolve the issue. Under an energy management plan to conserve power use, all commercial centers and markets are to be closed by 9 p.m. Ajmal Baloch, president of a trade union, told APP that during the summer, shoppers prefer to come to markets at night and a 9 p.m. closing time would greatly inconvenience them. He said people do not come to markets on official holidays, and the government's decision to close them on Fridays instead of on Sundays would further hurt business activities.

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Despite attractive investment opportunities in a country of 160 million whose political climate is improving, rating agencies seem reluctant to raise their numbers on Pakistan because of the continuing insurgency, especially in tribal areas suspected to be Taliban and al Qaida hideouts, residual political uncertainty and macroeconomic problems including shortages, growing fiscal deficits and soaring inflation. Iranian Energy Minister Parviz Fattah is due to visit Pakistan later this month to discuss a proposal to supply 1,100 MW of electricity to the South Asian nation. Iran's stateowned Islamic Republic News Agency has said during the recent visit of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Pakistan, Iran Renewed its offer to supply 1,100 MW of electricity to help meet Pakistan's energy needs, especially at the Gwadar port in Balochistan province and neighboring areas. Iran currently provides 35 MW of electricity along the Pakistan-Iran border. IRAN said Pakistan's conservation measures are designed to save 500 MW. It said Pakistani industrial units are being told to stagger their weekly holidays.

http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/05/21/Pakistan_facing_acute_power_shortage/UPI42941211408928/

LOAD SHEDDING: PART OF CONSPIRACY

Pakistan is facing multivariate problems nowadays; price-hike, wheat crisis and unending load shedding are among the top most problems. Load shedding is a serious issue as it not only hampers the domestic, business and industrial activities but also spoils ones mood, even ones behavior. Pakistan experiences serious power-shortage resulting in serious power deficit that hampers not only the development process but also poses serious threat to national growth. Heavy load shedding of power across Pakistan creates major problems especially for all categories of users. The most affected user of electricity under this crisis is the households followed by industrial users. In the past development plans focusing on electrification of villages, power connection to new industrial units and to agricultural producers were put on hold till power installation and generation was undertaken. Rapid rise in population and increase in number of households and its demand for electricit y was not fully accounted in development plans. Thats why now the production and supply is too low according to the demand. Lack of proper power policy and planning evolves major area that requires governments initiative. The countrywide load shedding has proved the inefficiency, mismanagement and governance issues related to policies and practices of our successive governments. Allah has blessed our country with natural resources that can be utilized to create electricity.

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We have plenty of wind and sunshine to create energy from them, but it will take political will on part of our government as well as politicians to invest in for the countrys better future. We have thermal power base electricity. Though Pakistan is well endowed with water resources, yet hardly any development projects have been visualized. Apart from lack of development, the province also suffers from manipulations. The present energy crisis in the country is because we have failed to build large dams. Water is rapidly becoming one of the defining crises of the 21st century. We have two conspiracies related to water shortage in the country. One is national conspiracy and the other is international one. National conspiracy is that our provinces blamed each other for water related crisis for example Sindh attributing the scarcity to theft and wasteful use by Punjab. After that Sindh traditionally has had two complaints against Punjab one that in the dry season, when Sindh needs water, Punjab does not release enough downstream; and during floods, when Sindh does not need water, Punjab flushes out surplus water downstream. The Kalabagh Dam is also under this controversial approach. The other is international conspiracy related to Pakistans water resources that United States and India spoiling Pakistans water resources they dont wont Pakistan to have much resources to combating its energy crisis. They create hurdles for Pakistan in this regard. United state indulging Pakistan to its security related problems in Tribal Areas and diverting Pakistans attention towards major issues related to energy and India committing itself to theft Pakistans water resources which comes to India here is the example of Baglihar Dam. Recently Government of Pakistan pays attention to that crisis and takes different measures to tackle that crisis. Government made an agreement of Nelam power project of about 130 millions. This agreement is between Pakistan, America and Norway. On Pakistani side this is on WAPDA and NEEPAK. This would be completed with the help of China. It generates 969 megawatt of electricity. 1518 thousands of thermal electricity would be produced in upcoming five years. Government makes sure that the work would be started on Kalabagh Dam. The work would be started on Bhasha Dam next year which generate four and a half thousand megawatt electricity. On short term basis government also take different actions like Markets and Shopping Malls would be closed at 9 o clock. Bill boards would be closed. Holiday should be on Friday. In governmental offices air conditioners would be started at 11 O clock. Energy savers would be used. So through these steps we can reduce the consumption of electricity. But this could be on short term basis in order to solve this issue of load shedding we need a permanent solution though constructing more power plants. It may surprise to see that over the last 8 or 9 years there hasnt been A SINGLE MEGAWATT increase in generation capacity. So on long term basis we need the national strategy to address the crises focuses to make use of all options to meet the current and future power requirements. This included hydro, thermal and nuclear sources. Several thermal powers were installed which resulted in two problems: import of fuel

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to meet power generation requirements, and resultant significant rise in power generation cost and cost to user shot up manifolds. Hydropower generation was strongly advocated to not only supplement power generation but also at a much lower cost. For thermal power we need to have more water resources like Dams and rivers etc. Over the years we have neglected other sources. Take coal for example, Pakistan has the 7th largest coal reserve in the world (in Thar area) and we only produce 0.2% of electricity from it! Coal is one of the cheapest ways to produce electricity, thats why countries like Australia produce 77% of their electricity from coal. And please dont give me the crap about pollution, because work is being done to make it as pollution free as possible. We are one of the few declared nuclear States of the world, yet we produce a fraction of power from nuclear as other countries do. We can use our nuclear power in peaceful means or purposes mainly in generating electricity. Then after that there is solar (and every part of Pakistan has abundant sunlight throughout the year), the Government can encourage people to install solar water heating and solar photovoltaic on their rooftop. And we must also not forget wind, out neighbour India is the worlds 4th largest wind power producer in the world!!! Shocking, its it, but alas, none of our governments has seriously looked into it, therefore Pakistani people are being blessed with the gift of load shedding with the advent of New Year! So, where does a GDP of 8% stand? So our governments paramount objective must be to provid adequate facilities for the e generation, transmission, and distribution of electrical energy keeping in view the future power requirements for the industrial, agricultural and economic development of the country.

http://pakobserver.net/200805/23/Articles04.asp

PAKISTAN PUTS CLOCKS FORWARD, HOPES TO SAVE ELECTRICITY

Pakistan put its clocks forward an hour on Sunday while shops have been ordered to close early as the country struggles with an acute electricity shortage. Setting clocks forward by an hour, to six hours ahead of GMT, should enable the country to take advantage of an extra hour of daylight in the evenings and save power. Shopping centers have also been ordered to close at 9 p.m. (1500 GMT) from Sunday while government offices have been told not to turn on the air conditioning for the first three hours of the working day. Pakistan tried moving to daylight saving time in 2002, but abandoned it as many people, particularly in rural areas, ignored the switch. Some people doubted the time change would work this time.

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"It's bound to fail. Half the people aren't aware of it and the other half don't care," said Adnan Hadi, a television producer in the southeastern city of Multan. Pakistan is grappling with a shortfall of 4,500 MW of power and throughout the country electricity is cut, usually for an hour at a time, several times a day.

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Water and Power Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf said on the weekend the government planned to overcome power shortages within a year by generating an extra 6,000 MW. He did not elaborate on how the extra power would be generated but officials have said Pakistan hoped to import second-hand generating equipment. Power cuts, as well as food shortages and inflation, have fuelled anger and contributed to a landslide opposition victory in a February general election. Early this year, the government shut steel melting units across the country for two weeks and ordered hundreds of textile mills to reduce operations to cope with the power shortage. In April, textile workers staged violent protests against power cuts that have crippled their mills. Pakistan's installed capacity is about 19,845 MW, of which about one-third is produced by hydro-electric plants. Much of the rest is generated by thermal stations, fuelled primarily by gas and oil. But no new capacity has been installed for the past decade despite strong growth and rising demand for power. http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/pakistan/2008/06/02/159152/Pakistan-puts.htm

NO END TO ELECTRICITY METER SHORTAGE

Shortage of domestic electricity metres continued in the provincial capital as the management of Lahore Electric Supply Company (LESCO) failed to procure the most necessary item on time. Sources in the company claimed that more than 30,000 applications for the issuance of new electricity metres were pending with the company. Sources said the shortage was a direct result of lack of vision and future planning of the management especially the high-ups. Sources said that the shortage of domestic metres, electricity cable and transformers started some five months back and since then the company was failed to procure these most necessary items. Shortage of these items clearly exposed the claims of the LESCO that it was investing a huge sum on improving its infrastructure and better customer services for the last two years.

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The shortage of metres has created serious inconvenience to those who have deposited their money to the LESCO for replacement of metres or for getting new connections. A number of complainants termed the shortage a criminal negligence on part of the company. They said the LESCO was already known for disturbing its consumers in one way or the other and presently the general perception of the people about the company was that the officer class of the company was not purchasing metres and transformers because they have not gotten a good deal from the manufacturers. Most of the applicants urged the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA), Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) and Federal Minister for Water and Power to hold an inquiry into the issue. Whoever is responsible for this should be punished, said Khurram, a resident of Faisal Town. He said he applied for a new connection some three months back but still he was going to t e sub h division every day to get a metre. He said many others were also running pillar to post to get new metres in the same sub division. Following the shortage, the LESCO field staff is openly exploiting the applicants and minting money from them for getting them metres early. A senior LESCO official, on the condition of anonymity, said that every sub-division needed average 500 electricity metres per month but presently the company was providing them with four to five metres per week.When contacted, the call on the mobile phone of LESCO Chief Executive Akram Arain was not attended. The companys PRO admitted that the shortage was going on. He said it would be overcome within weeks.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=119965

FREQUENT POWER SHUTDOWNS BRINGING GRADES DOWN

* Students say they cannot study properly in dim light * PU boarder says weather problems increase when there is no water * Teachers say relief being given to students following power crisis

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* Computer labs at GCU and LCWU closed down during load shedding * Students not expecting good results owing to poor preparation The hours-long load shedding in the city is giving a tough time to students, especially schoolchildren, during the ongoing examinations. Students said that massive load shedding in the last few months had adversely affected their studies. They said that they could not study properly in the dim light and under hot and humid weather, as it gave them a headache and had affected their eyesight. Some students also said that their schools/colleges had power backup systems, but the systems were not being used. They said that they had been compelled to take classes and sit in examinations with no electricity in the rooms. Students enrolled in semester system courses, especially those studying computers and other sciences, said that they had an extra burden of studies owing to the semester system. They said that they had to make presentations and submit term reports and assignments, which was impossible with no electricity in town. Teachers also said that they had problems giving lectures during load shedding. The students of intermediate, preparing for their practicals, and others for the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) and Central Superior Services (CSS) examinations have also denounced the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) and the government for not complying with the students demand of uninterrupted supply of electricity. A number of institutions in the city did not give summer holidays to their students, as they had switched to the semester systems and were conducting examinations. Institutes like the Lahore College for Women University (LCWU), Government College University (GCU), Forman Christian College University (FCCU), and the Punjab University (PU) are still open and holding exams. Moreover, the students of Kinnaird College, Beaconhouse National University and FAST National University of Computer and Emerging Sciences are still due at the institutes for their assignments and research works. Zara, a student of BS (Honours) at the LCWU, said that semester examinations were ongoing at different departments of the university, and usually there was no electricity during the examination. It becomes difficult to sit in the examination rooms due to the heat and poor light, but we cannot do anything about it, she said, adding that there were no power generators at the university to facilitate the student. She said that students were also having trouble preparing for the exams, as they could not frame a proper timetable for studies owing to unplanned and massive load shedding.

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Water shortage: Jawaria Ahmed, a PU Hostels boarder, said that students had no choice but prepare for their exams in candlelight during load- shedding hours. The situation gets worse when the hostels run out of water, as we are not allowed to go out in the nighttime, she said. Adeel Anjum, a Ravian studying computer sciences, said that students in his department did most of their work on computers, but the administration of the GCU had issued orders to close the computer labs at the time of load shedding. We have to prepare our assignments and need the Internet for that, but now the computer labs are often closed due to the load shedding and we have to suffer, he said, adding that late submission of assignments was also affecting their grades. Tayyab Bhatti, preparing for his CSS exams, said that students taking the exams usually went to libraries for preparations, but now it had become difficult for them to focus on their studies due to frequent power failure as they could not sit in libraries for long hours without electricity and cooling system. Facilitating students: BNU Communication Adviser Arfa Sarfraz said, Although we have closed the university for summer holidays, students who have not submitted their research work are still coming, she said, adding that every second student had the excuse that he/she could not complete the research work due to load shedding. I personally believe that students are suffering the most due to the energy crises. Khansa Nazim, an LCWU faculty member, said, The administration knows that students are disturbed due to load shedding. We have kept this thing in mind before setting up question papers, she said. She said that teachers had also been suffering for the last many months because they usually used projectors to deliver lectures, which they could not do properly at the time of load shedding. Another teacher at the university said that the authorities there too had directed the computers and science departments to shut down computer labs and laboratories during load shedding out of fear of getting equipment damaged. Expectations not high: Asim Khan, a GCU student, said that power failure had always been a problem for students, and that thousands of students in the city had taken their matriculation, intermediate, and bachelor examinations during load-shedding hours. He said that students could not prepare for their exams properly, due to which they were not expecting good results.

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He said that the graph of quality education might fall due to energy crises. Neither the students, nor the teachers are satisfied with their progress, he said. An official of the Lahore College of Arts and Sciences (LACAS) said that students there had suffered a lot during examination days due to frequent power shutdowns. He said that parents were concerned about the progress of their children. They have complained that students are unable to concentrate on their studies due to hot and humid weather conditions, he said. He said that the school administration was trying to remove the parents concern by installing UPS systems and generators at various branches of LACAS.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C06%5C28%5Cstory_28-62008_pg13_9

References:
1. http://www.energybulletin.net/883.htm 2. http://www.dawn.com/top16.htm 3. http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/waste-to-energy-pakistan

4. http://www.energy.com.pk/energytypes.htm
5. http://www.energy.com.pk/THERMAL_%20ENERGY.htm 5. http://www.energy.com.pk/hydel.htm 6. http://www.energy.com.pk/Wind%20Energy.htm 7 http://www.energy.com.pk/ecnec.htm 8. http://www.energy.com.pk/energy%20disastor.htm 9. http://www.energy.com.pk/energycrisis.htm 10. http://www.dawn.com/2007/01/29/ebr13.htm 11. http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.htm 12 http://www.energy.com.pk/news%20and%20views.htm 13. http://www.articlealley.com/article_460564_22.html 14. http://pakobserver.net/200805/03/Articles04.asp 15 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C05%5C17%5Cstory_17-52008_pg5_18 16. http://www.thenews.com.pk/daily_detail.asp?id=113882

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17.http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/05/21/Pakistan_facing_acute_power_shortag/UPI 42941211408928/ 18 http://pakobserver.net/200805/23/Articles04.asp 19. http://www.app.com.pk/en_/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=39856&Itemid 20. http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/pakistan/2008/06/02/159152/Pakistan-puts.htm 21. http://www.energy.com.pk/ecnec.htm 22. http://www.energy.com.pk/energycrisis.htm 23. http://www.dawn.com/2008/02/10/ebr11.htm 24. http://pakobserver.net/200804/17/Articles03.asp is a cheaper and with 50,000 MW growth 25. http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resources/2008/05/21/Pakistan_facing_acute_power_shortage/UPI42941211408928/ 26. http://www.dawn.com/2008/06/30/op.htm#top

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