Economics: Daily Alert

12 August 2011

Global equity markets rally. US bonds retreat. AUD bounces higher.

US initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 395,000 in the past week - marking the
lowest reading in four months. The number of people receiving benefits after drawing an initial week of aid fell by 26,309 to 3.16 million. The US trade deficit surged from $50.8 billion to $53.1 billion in June - the largest deficit in almost three years. Exports dropped by 2.3pct in June, while imports only dropped by 0.8pct. The wider deficit could result in a downward revision to June quarter growth. Imports from China rose by 5pct to $34.4 billion, lifting the trade gap to $26.7 billion, the highest in 10-months.
1400

S&P 500 & ASX200

5000 S&P500 (lhs) 4750

1300

4500

4250 ASX200 (rhs) 1200 4000 6-Apr-11 1-Jun-11 27-Jul-11

European shares rose on Thursday in a volatile trading session. The banking sector received a boost as investors bought up oversold stock, although European bank borrowing costs were showing signs of upward pressure. In the credit swap market, the cost to insure against French banks defaulting on their debt touched record highs in European trade. However French bank Societe General rose 3.7pct after the 14pct slide in the prior session. The European banking index gained 3.2pct. The FTSEurofirst index rose 2.6pct while the German Dax gained 3.3pct and the UK FTSE rose 3.1pct. US sharemarkets rallied on Thursday, recovering the losses in the previous
session as investors bought up cheaply valued stocks. The better than expected job data supported sentiment. Financial stocks led the gains. The S&P financial index jumped 6.3pct. Cisco gained almost 16pct after reporting healthy results. The Dow Jones rose by 423pts or 4pct with the S&P 500 up 4.6pct and the Nasdaq rose 112pts or 4.7pct. The so-called "fear gauge" or Vix fell by 9pct to 39.

9-Feb-11

US BOND YIELDS
1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 3.00 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 US 2 yr, (lhs) 0.10 12-May-11 9-Jun-11 7-Jul-11 4-Aug-11 2.00 2.75 2.50 2.25 US 10yr (rhs) 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25

USD/JPY & EUR/USD

90 1.50

US long-dated treasury prices fell sharply overnight (yields higher). A $16 bn

auction of 30-yr notes was shunned by investors after the recent ratings downgrade. US 2yr yields were flat at 0.18% and 10yr yields rose 22pts to 2.33%.
85

EUR/USD (rhs)
1.45

The US dollar eased against commodity currencies and traded in a range against
the Euro. The Euro hit early lows near US$1.4105, before rising to highs around US$1.4285, ending the US trade near US$1.4225. The Aussie dollar rose from lows near US101.75c to US103.55c, ending US trade near US103.30c. And the Japanese yen held between 76.30 yen per US dollar and JPY76.85 ending US trade near JPY76.80.

80

1.40

USD/JPY (lhs)
75 12-May-11 9-Jun-11 7-Jul-11 4-Aug-11 1.35

AUD/USD & AUD/EUR

1.12 AUD/USD (lhs) 0.78

Benchmark crude oil prices rose for a second straight day on Thursday following
the release of the better than expected weekly employment data. Nymex crude oil rose by US$2.83 or 3.4pct to US$85.72 a barrel and London Brent crude rose by US$1.34 to US$108.02 a barrel. Base metal prices were higher on the London Metal Exchange on Thursday. Lead was once again the best performer up 5.2pct. And the gold price eased from record highs. Comex December gold fell by US$17.90 an ounce to US$1,766.40.
1.08

0.76

1.04

0.74

1.00

AUD/EUR (rhs)

0.72

0.96

0.70 6-Apr-11 1-Jun-11 27-Jul-11

Ahead: In Australia, no economic data is released. In the US, retail trade and
business inventories are expected.
Currencies AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/NZD AUD/JPY AUD/EUR 1.0348 0.8313 1.4227 76.84 1.6235 0.7634 1.2447 79.51 0.7274 1.7% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 5.1% -0.8% 1.6% 1.3% 10 Yr Bond Yields (%) Australia NZ US AU less US 4.07 4.44 2.33 1.73 0.04 -0.06 0.23 Com m odities CRB Index GS Index Aluminium $/t Copper $/t Lead $/t Nickel $/t Zinc $/t Gold $/o WTI Oil $/b 326.34 ~ 2380 8860 2384 21551 2157 1763.4 85.72 1.8% ~ 0.7% 3.3% 5.2% 3.0% 4.1% -1.7% 3.4%

9-Feb-11

Equities Dow S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Shanghai H.Seng Nikkei ASX200 NZSX50 11,143 1,173 2,493 5,163 2,582 19,595 8,982 4,141 3,209 3.9% 4.6% 4.7% 3.1% 1.3% -1.0% -0.6% 0.0% 0.8%

NZ less US 2.11 AUD Sw ap Rates (%) 3mth 3yr 5yr 4.82 4.33 4.78 -0.06 0.22 0.20

John Peters Senior Economist T. +612 9117 0112 E. john.peters@cba.com.au

Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and at www.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Economics: Preview
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
There are no major economic releases in Australia or New Zealand today.

INTERNATIONAL
In the US later today the July retail sales, August University of Michigan consumer confidence, and June business inventories. In Europe, the major piece of economic news is the release of the June Eurozone industrial production figures. Friday 12 August EZ Industrial production, June, m/y%ch, (0.1/4.0 prev) Aggregate Eurozone industrial production grew at 4.5% (YoY) in May. Production of capital goods and intermediate goods has been the key drivers of strength in recent months, with consumer goods lagging. In terms of country contributions to the aggregate numbers, Germany has delivered the strongest performance of the big four economies with annual growth of 7.5%. Next was France with 4.0% (YoY) , in third place Italy at 1.8% (YoY) and last was Spain, where industrial output actually contracted marginally by 0.4% in the 12 months to May.
Index 120

EZ INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(Base 100= Feb 2001)
Germany Eurozone 100 100 Index 120

France 80 Italy 80

60 Jan-00 Jul-03 Jan-07 Jul-10

60

Friday 12 August US Retail sales, July, m%ch, (0.1 prev) US retail sales growth has softened in recent months. In June, headline retail sales increased by only 0.1% in the month, while core sales were flat. Higher fuel costs have acted as a headwind to consumption in recent months. In addition, the weakness in the labour market and uncertainty in parts of the wider economy has softened consumer confidence. The protracted debt ceiling debate is unlikely to have helped on this front. While petrol prices have eased recently, the broader confidence issues remain in place. It is unlikely that retail sales will rebound significantly in the coming months, given the lack of certainty in the US economy, in particular in the labour market. This lack of growth is in itself significant for the US economy. Consumption accounts for some 70% of US GDP.
% 20

US RETAIL SALES

% 20

0 Annual % change

-20

-20

3-month annual % change -40 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 -40

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Economics: Review
Australia and New Zealand Australia: Labour Force July 2011
Jobs growth was flat (-0.1k) in July. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% from 4.9%. There was an unusual offsetting move with full-time jobs down 22.2k while part-time jobs rose 22.1k Jobs growth has slowed markedly from the rapid pace of last year. Labour force growth has also slowed. It means a lower jobs hurdle to push the unemployment rate down. A period of unemployment rates around 5%, while the ASX wobbles, is still not a case for cutting interest rates. The flat (-0.1k) July jobs outcome is another signal that jobs growth has softened considerably over the past 6 months. A year ago the 3 month jobs growth average was 30k. Now it is only 7k. Market expectations of todays jobs data centred on a rise of 10k (CBA forecast was +15k). The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.1% after staying at 4.9% for the previous 4 months. And the participation rate stayed at 65.6%. There was an unusual offsetting move in full (down 22.2k) and parttime jobs (up 22.1k). Full-time jobs are 172k higher than a year ago, or 2.2%pa. Part-time jobs are 16k higher over the past year, or 0.5%pa. Our reading of the forward indicators of the jobs markets still points to average monthly jobs gains of 15k. Population and labour force growth are moderating. It means a lower jobs growth hurdle to produce a lower unemployment rate. Current RBA thinking is based on the idea that the unemployment rate remains around current levels for some time. That assumption remains on track. The natural unemployment rate is about 5%. Todays flat July jobs data will add to market speculation about rate cuts. Especially when markets, today, have about 4 RBA rate cuts priced into the interest rate futures curves by the end of this year. The odds on the RBA sitting pat for a prolonged period have increased. But the case for rate cuts is not yet made. We will stick with our view that the next move is up. The domestic inflation trends are still up. And we still see the unemployment rate trending lower, not higher, over the next 6 months. Ongoing volatility in financial markets increases the downside risks to global growth. It is more likely, in our view, to put back the timing of the expected RBA rate rise, rather than eradicate it. The recent inflation data and the RBAs SMP last week clearly indicate that a cash rate rise is more likely than a cut at this stage. Downside risks to Asias and Australias growth would need to be large enough to cause a marked slowdown in the local inflation trends before RBA rate cuts could be considered.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

New Zealand
REINZ NZ housing market report July. The underlying picture of the market remains of a very gradual pick-up in housing market activity. Nationwide housing turnover edged slightly lower in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis, dipping 1.9% mom in July. As expected, there was a recovery in turnover in Canterbury over July (+17.5% mom) from the sharp drop in the wake of the earthquakes in the previous month. Outside of Canterbury, there are some signs of softening in housing turnover, although poor weather over the month may have contributed to this. Nationwide turnover excluding Canterbury was down 4.2% mom. Nonetheless, median days to sell continued to edge lower (41 days, from 42 prior), indicating some tightening in the housing market. Meanwhile, house prices were broadly flat over July on a seasonally adjusted basis (-0.1% mom, s.a., +0.5% apc). Julys data reflect the very gradual recovery that is occurring in the housing market. It is encouraging to see housing demand recovering in Canterbury over July following the disruptions in June. Auckland is already becoming a sellers market as stock levels fall and buyer competition warms up. While the recovery in housing demand has been more subdued elsewhere, we expect things to pick up over the coming year.

NZ OCR 50bp hike likely to be delayed until December: it is clear from the past week that Europes debt situation is still a considerable risk to the global economy, and warrants waiting until a stable solution is in place. The NZD/USD is also likely to sit even higher in the medium term after the US debt ceiling crisis and S&P downgrade, restraining the need for the OCR to do as much work. The risk to our view is an earlier hike should the global situation improve rapidly. The RBNZ does have nearly 5 weeks until it releases its decision, and the picture could change considerably by then. Markets have yet to return to fully pricing in a 50bp hike by year-end, low even relative to our delayed forecast.
RBNZ view

The RBNZ suggests that current interest rate levels would not be needed much longer. We expect the RBNZ to remove its insurance cut in QIV 2011.
RBA view

The QII CPI confirmed the inflation trend has turned up. Rate rises are likely. We expect a rate rise in November. The cash rate is expected to reach 5.75% by 2013.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

US & CANADA
United States
Weekly initial jobless claims nudged lower to 395k in the week to August 6th as new unemployment claims continued to grind back lower from the Q2 spike. The 4-week moving average is not quite back under the 400k mark, but should be within a couple of weeks if the current gradual improvement continues. The trade deficit widened to $53.1b. in June, $5.0 b. greater than expected and 4.4% larger than in May. Exports dropped by 2.3% in June, while imports only dropped by 0.8% on the month. FOMC view

Given the loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly in the labour market, the first Fed funds hike is not expected until mid 2013 at the earliest.
Bank of Canada view

The Canadian economy is recovering, and the BoC has begun to remove stimulus. We expect a slow and steady removal of policy accommodation to ensue.

EUROZONE & UK
United Kingdom
There was no UK data of note yesterday.

Eurozone
There was no European data of note yesterday.

European Markets
Equity markets rallied back strongly through the session as huge volatility remained a theme across markets. Most of the major European indices rebounded by around 3% on the day. In the government bond markets Italian and Spanish paper edged higher, 10-year yields on both closing the session under the 5% mark. Bunds sold off, 10 year yields rising by 12bps, French yields nudged a fraction lower. However, the Itraxx Xover continued to surge higher suggesting that nervousness remains high. In FX the CHF was again the major mover, this time weakening, with EUR/CHF up over 5% on the day. Verbal intervention continued with SNB Vice President Jordan suggesting to the press that the SNB still had plenty of scope to take additional measures to counter the strength of the CHF. One topic circulating in markets, although not mentioned by Mr. Jordan was the possibility of a peg to the euro.

Bank of England view

The MPC continues to stress that the high UK inflation is transitory. Hence, given the subdued outlook for the UK economy, we expect the BoE to remain on hold until QII 2012.
ECB view

Elevated inflation in the Eurozone has led to the ECB re-commencing tightening in an effort to pre-empt the onset of second round inflation effects. With the ECB forecasting 2011 inflation at 2.6%, we expect a further rate hike in QIV.

CHINA & JAPAN

Bank of Japan

In response to the recent natural disasters, the Bank of Japan has implemented further quantitative easing measures. Monetary policy in Japan is likely to remain accommodative for some time.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

The Week Ahead

Calendar - Australasia, Japan and China
Time Date Thu 11 Aug AEST 08.30 09.50 Econ Event NZ JP Business NZ PMI Machine orders Period Jul Jul Unit Index m%ch y%ch 11.00 11.00 11.00 AU AU NZ WBC/MI consumer inflation expectation WBC/MI unemployment expectation ANZ consumer confidence Aug Aug Aug % Index Index m%ch 11.30 11.30 11.30 Fri 12 Aug 14.30 AU AU AU JP Employment change Unemployment rate Participation rate Industrial production Jul Jul Jul Jun 000 % % m%ch y%ch 14.30 JP Capacity utilization Jun m%ch Last 54.3 3.0 10.5 3.4 132.4 109.4 -2.8 23.4 4.9 65.6 3.9 -1.6 12.8 Forecast Market ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 10 4.9 65.6 ~ ~ ~ CBA ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 15.0 4.9 65.6 ~ ~ ~

Calendar North America & Europe

Please note all days and times are UK time, not local release day/times UK Date Thu 11 Aug Time 13.30 Econ Event CA New housing price index Period Jun Unit m%ch y%ch 13.30 13.30 Fri 12 Aug 10.00 CA US EZ International merchandise trade Initial jobless and continuing claims Industrial production Jun Aug Jun C$bn ~ m%ch y%ch 13.30 14.55 15.00 US US US Advance retail sales Uni of Michigan confidence Business inventories Jul Aug Jun % Index % Last 0.4 1.9 -0.8 ~ 4.5 0.3 0.1 63.7 1.0 Forecast Market ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0.4 63.7 0.6 CBA ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

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Research
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