Coastal and Watershed Resources and Hazards Modeling

Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko, M.Sc

DETERMINISTIC MODELLING ON LANDSLIDE HAZARD ZONATION

Contents

Table of Figures

Introduction
Landslides are frequently responsible for considerable loss of money and lives and the most widespread and damaging hazard in the world. Landslide can be triggered by intense rainfall, earthquake, ground water level change, storm waves or rapid stream erosion. Landslides may be corrected or controlled by one or more combinations of four principle measures: drainage, slope geometry modification, retaining structures and internal slope reinforcement. Landslides and related slope stability problems disturb many parts of the world but experience indicates that understanding, recognition and treatment of landslide hazards is still fragmentary. A particular area requiring attention concerns the selection and design of appropriate, cost-effective remedial measures, which in turn require a clear understanding of the conditions and processes that caused the landslides. Much progress has been made in developing techniques to minimize the impact of landslides, although more efficient, quicker and cheaper methods could well emerge in the future (Hadmoko 2007, Yilmas and Keskin 2009). Recently, developing techniques and methods are managed and analyze information and data using geospatial information and technology which known as Geographic Information System (GIS) and it is widely used as tool for mapping. Landslide mapping has become an important tool for risk assessment, prediction, and management (Hadmoko 2007, Mantovani, F et al 2009) Synthetic maps showing slopes at risk of movement have proven to be valuable for planning, risk analysis, and design of infrastructure. When geomorphological and geological surveys are imported into a Geographic Information System environment, thematic maps can be generated to meet the needs of a wide variety of end users. Applications for products derived from these surveys include: thematic cartography implementation and improvement; creation of geological and Geomorphological databases; thematic mapping aimed at mitigating geoenvironmental risks such as landsliding and flooding; remote sensing for geological and geomorphological mapping; land management and hazard mitigation; hydrological modeling; water resources protection and management; numerical modeling; environmental impact assessment; and managing environmental emergencies (Turner and Schuster 1996 in Mantovani, Franco. et al 2009). Landslides hazard assessment has been playing an important role in spatial planning due to the increasing of landslide disasters occurring in many regions in Indonesia. Various methods of landslide hazard assessments have been proposed and conducted by earth scientists from the simplest method by using the simple parameter that caused landslide to very complex methods by using the large number of terrain parameters and also the complex quantitative landslide hazard

zonation. One methods of landslide hazard assessment is deterministic method (Hadmoko, 2009). This exercise deals with the spatial deterministic landslide hazard assessment by using GIS as the main tool of the analysis. This analysis is based on the slope stability analysis with infinite slope stability model. This model based on theory that landslide will be occur when the mobilized shear stress in the soil increase and the available shear strength in the soil is decrease, so the ratio is known as safety factor (Fs). The safety factor can be calculated pixel by pixel for individual slope, and for given area, the combination of each pixel can be generalized as the area value.

Objectives
Based on question in the exercise, we can see that the objectives of this exercise are as follow: 1. To compare for each scenario, and to explain the pixel distributions for all stability classes (stable, critical and unstable) for each scenario. 2. To know why the distributions of the pixels in the hazard maps have no pattern and distributed irregularly. 3. To calculate the number of pixels for all maps and make charts showing the number of pixel for all the stability classes (one chart for one scenario). 4. To calculate the area of each hazard level for all scenarios and make a chat showing the influence of soil water content to the area of each hazard level. 5. To make simple statistical regression based on your results to predict the unstable area as a function of soil water content. 6. To know the advantages and disadvantages this methods in landslide hazard simulation.

Material and Method

The materials needed in this exercise are: 1. ILWIS software package which is installed in your system 2. Elevation data of our study area : Girimulyo and its surrounding area 3. PC / Laptop The hazard degree can be expressed by the Safety Factor, which is the ratio between the forces that make the slope fail and those that prevent the slope from failing. The value of safety factor (FS) can be classified into three classes i.e. FS-values larger than 1 indicate of the slope in stable condition, FS-values smaller than 1 represent the unstable condition. At F=1 the slope is at the point of failure. Many models of safety factor calculation are available but we use the simplest method we can call it infinite slope models. The main principle of this method is to understand the failure mechanism by the change of soil moisture content (degree of saturation), the groundwater level and seismic acceleration. The model is conducted as an ILWIS function.

a. Creation of DEM
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is the digital map which contains the elevation data recorded in the spatial data as z value. DEM is a main important input variable in this exercise. In this exercise DEM will be extracted from digital topographical map that contain point elevation data. The format of DEM is the raster-based DEM. The elevation data recorded in each pixel or regular grid, which is grid defined as a square cell with constant size and an elevation value associated to it. The digital elevation model will be created using point interpolation in the ILWIS software. Point interpolation performs an interpolation on randomly distributed point values and returns regularly distributed point values. In ILWIS, the output values are raster values. The input map on this exercise is a point map in which the points themselves are values (point map with a value domain). For each pixel in the output map, a value is calculated by an interpolation on input point values. Moving average methods will be used in interpolation process. Moving average assigns to pixels weighted averaged point values.

Create DEM from elevation point data: Operation menuInterpolationpoint interpolationmoving average or we can right click on point data and choose interpolationmoving average. We can see in Fig 1 below.

b. Creation of slope angle map

Slope angle map is derived from elevation map in raster-based DEM. Slope angle map can be calculated by using filter operation applied to DEM in ILWJS environment. The slope angle map will be classified into degree system. The conceptual of calculating slope angle can be done by using filter operation with 3x3 windows size which applied to all pixels in the map. The schematic operation of 3x3 windows filter can be seen in Fig 2.

Create Slope Map by using the following instruction: a. Create the map of height difference in x and y direction (DX and DY map) by applying the filter function before we create the slope map. DX and DY can be calculated using DFDX and DFDY linear filter operation which standard linear filter. It calculates the first derivative in x and y-direction (df/dx and df/dy) per pixel. The result of DFDY filters on a DEM: Positive values of DX in the output map mean the terrain goes up from left to right (West to East); negative values in the output map mean the terrain goes down. Positive value of DY in the output map mean that the terrain goes up from bottom to up (South to North); Negative value in the output map mean the terrain goes down. PIXSIZE is the pixel size used in DEM, in this exercise used 20x20 meters in pixel size. Click Operation Image Processing Filter Select DEM as input then choose linear filter. Select the DFDX for the DX Map and DFDY for the DY Map. Use output name DX and DY. We can see in Fig 3 and Fig 4.

DFDX

DXDY

b. Create the slope map by typing this formula in command line:

SLOPEPCT=100*HYP (DX, DY)/PIXSIZE(DEM) SLOPEPCT is the slope in percent (%) HYP is the function to finds the side opposite the right angle in a rightangled triangle (an internal Mapcalc/Tabcalc function).

To transform slope in percent to degree can be calculated by using formula:

SLOPEDEG=RADDEG(ATAN(SLOPEPCT/100)) where, SLOPEDEG : slope in degree RADDEG : converter radians to degree ATAN : map calculation for the inverse tanget (tan-1) SLOPEPCT : slope in percent The classification of slope angle can be listed at Table 1. Table 1. Slope classification in degree Slope_Id 1 2 3 4 5 Slope (in degree) 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 Slope_Id 6 7 8 9 Slope (in degree) 50 60 60 70 70 80 80 90

c. Reorganize slope map using three parameters as follow: SinSlope = the sine of the slope CosSlope = the cosine of the slope Cos2Slope = cos(slope)*cos(slope) NOTE: All slope data have to be converted into radians from degree before appling trigonometric equations (degrad)

So, to calculate above formula on the command line: SinSlope=sin(degrad(SLOPEDEG)) CosSlope=cos(degrad(SLOPEDEG)) Cos2Slope= cos(degrad(SLOPEDEG))

d. After calculation the parameters of slope map, now calculating the slope stability by applying scenario. Built new user-defined function = Function Hydrology.

Double click the New Function in operational list. Type the function name FS_Hydrology. Type the expression below: (Cohesion+(Gamma*Gammaw)*Z*Cos2Slope*Tanphi)/(Gamma*Z*S inSlope*CosSlope)

In dialog above then to be edited the expression as follow:

So, we need only two variables to be changed: Value Gamma and Value M, because the value of the unit weight of soil and groundwater depth above the slip surface change and depend on the degree of saturation. The fully saturated condition lets us to know the slope stability condition when the soil is completely filled by water. This is also not a very realistic situation, but it will give us the most pessimistic estimation of slope stability, with only one triggering factor involved (rainfall leading to high water tables) (van Westen, 1993 on Hadmoko 2009). Below we can use the gamma and m for the calculation scenario as follow (Table 2).

Table 2.Value Gamma and zw for each scenario

No. 1 2 3 4 5 Degree of saturation Dry condition 25% saturated condition 50% saturated condition 75% saturated condition Fully saturated Gamma value (N/m2) 5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 Zw 0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1

e.

To calculate the scenarios mentioned above, we can type the following command in the command field in ILWIS: Table 3. Scenario formula
Degree of Saturation Dry condition 25% saturated condition 50% saturated condition 75% saturated condition Fully saturated Command Fs_dry=Fs_hydrology(5000,0) Fs_25=Fs_hydrology(7000,0.25) Fs_50=Fs_hydrology(9000,0.50) Fs_75=Fs_hydrology(9000,0.75) Fs_sat=Fs_hydrology(13000,1)

No 1 2 3 4 5

Dont forget to define the Georeference, use elevation point data. f. Create classes for slope stability After finish then classify of each map into three classes by using map slicing and create classes by create a domain with the name:Fs_classes. Then create the representation color as follow. Table 4. Boundaries used for each class of slope stability No
1 2 3

Upper boundary
100 1,5 0,99

Slope Stability
Stable Critical Slope Unstable Slope

Representation Color
Green Yellow Red

g. Create final map for all scenarios, Slicing.

click Image Processing

Result and Discussion

In this exercise the final result are the stability classes (stable, critical and unstable) for each scenario, Pixel chart for each scenario and Statistic regression as a function of soil water content. This discussion is an answer of question in last of this exercise. We can compare maps for each scenario (question 1) to explain the pixel distributions for all stability classes (stable, critical and unstable) for each scenario as follow (Figure 7).

Start from the dry condition, in this condition we can see that unstable slope and critical slope distributed in hills/ridge and almost are in stable condition. In 25% saturated condition, the unstable area increase due to the value of the unit weight of soil and groundwater depth above the slip surface change and depend on the degree of saturation (increase 25%). Drastic changes start in 50% saturated condition, where stable area decrease due to the increase of saturation. Only in riverbank and alluvial plain at condition of stable in fully saturated condition. That kind of condition because the factor we use is slope and we know that rain water that fulfilled water content will increase the unstable condition area. Lets we compare to the slope classes (Figure 8) to see more clearly relationship between different scenario with slope condition. Shown with number 1 are area with stable condition in almost all scenario, number 2 is unstable area even though in dry condition and number 3 is start unstable un 25% saturated condition.

The distribution of the pixels in the hazard maps have no pattern and distributed irregularly (qeustion2) because the results are depend on slope steepness where each pixel has different value and the calculation was conducted for each pixel. The group of pixels can be shown as an area, but sometimes there is individual pixel with different value with its surroundings. If we would like to get more general result or see better distribution we may use filter majority to eliminate single pixel or more with differs.

To calculate the number of pixels for all maps and make charts showing the number of pixel for all the stability classes (question 3), we can directly get by see the histogram. Below is the chart for scenarios Figure 9.

Besides, the existing scenario we also do two more scenario 30% saturated and 62,5 % saturated condition with fulfilled the value of Gamma and Zw based on range of scenario before.

Additional data above will be included in the calculation of pixel number to create chart and showing the influence of soil water content to the area of each hazard level (question 4). In histogram data above we can see that there is Area that calculated from number of pixel x pixel size where pixel size is 20m, so Npix multiply with 400m2. Below is the table of area to be used as chart to see the influence: Table 5. Area of each hazard level in each scenario condition (in meter square)

From table, we can see that unstable area is decreasing in line with water content until 75% and decrease at fully saturated condition. The number of critical area changes into unstable area, meanwhile stable area changes into critical condition. We can see more clearly using chart (Figure 11) below that showing the influence of water content in slope stability. Stable shown with green color decreasing along the saturation, yellow as critical condition also decrease, meanwhile unstable is increase but start decrease in fully saturated condition. In rainy condition the soil water content will increase and that cause unstable area increase as what we can see in the figure and table in this scenario.

Besides showing the result in above chart, we can also make a simple statistical regression to predict the unstable area as a function of soil water content (question 5).

Analysis result above (Figure 12) show mathematical model; regression to predict unstable area that is y = 25688x + 7547 with R = 0.933. It can be explain that every increasing value of saturated condition (FS) will followed with the increasing of number of pixels in unstable condition. Determinant value R is 93.3% show positive relation and show the influence of soil water content that caused by rainfall as the most triggering factor in this model.We can see the linkage between parameters and their influence in landslide process. So, this deterministic model can shown and help us to more understand the processes, mechanism that occur in landslide hazard. Landslide hazard simulation with deterministic model also known as at white-box model or physically-based model, because it based on physical processes involve in the system. Deterministic approaches are based on slope stability analysis, physical process in landslide triggering and propagation mechanism. The landslide deterministic modeling is suitable for spatial landslide hazard zonation moreover temporal landslide hazard prediction. (Hadmoko, 2007). Deterministic model as model with the techniques of white box model factor of safety combined with hydrological model has the advantages and disadvantages in landslide simulation. The disadvantages are cannot be applied in Regional, Medium and Large scale, deterministic model only applicable for detailed scale and data required for this model is sometimes really difficult to obtain. The advantages of deterministic model as mentioned above let us to understand the landslide triggering processes; hazard degree by using factor of safety (FS) value; detailed geotechnical soil properties can be known, suitable for small area particularly for engineering work and provide the best quantitative information on landslide hazard. Information for landslide hazard assessment can be manage into database in Geospatial software known as Geographic Information System (GIS) and combined with spatial analysis, modeling help us in deterministic model based on slope stability approach to produce landslide hazard map. In other hand, the development of Remote Sensing data that can be used to develop spatial model in identifying areas of high hazard of landslide occurrence. Even though there are sources of errors and uncertainties in GIS-based landslide hazard assessment, an example in this exercise is the existence of undefined value in DEM data derived from elevation point. But according to van Westen in Hadmoko 2007, slope angle and slope direction are low in degree of uncertainty because most of uncertainties are caused by the human factor such as qualitative data interpretation from satellite images.

Conclusion
Landslide hazard assessment is very important in spatial planning due to the increasing of landslide disaster. Many methods are used to determine landslide hazard, one of the methods is deterministic model for small area or detailed research area. The advantages of this model are let us to understand the processes; mechanism occurs and hazard degree of safety factor. Deterministic model simulation is based on slope data that can show result of slope stability that influenced by soil water content to the area of each hazard level. This exercise use elevation point data to get Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and then derived as slope data. Slope stability scenarios in research area show mathematical model; regression to predict unstable area that is y = 25688x + 7547 with R = 0.933. Using GIS software as tool for mapping and its spatial analysis helps us to process and analyze or applied this white-box model to be created as landslide hazard map.

References
Hadmoko, D. 2007. Toward GIS-based itergrated landslide hazard assessment:critical overview. Indonesian Journal of Geography, Vol 39. No 1 June 2007 pp 55-77. Hadmoko, D. 2009. Practical Guideline Deterministic Modelling On Landslide Hazard Zonation. Faculty Of Geography. Is k Yilmaz and Inan Keskin. 2009. GIS based statistical and physical approaches to landslide susceptibility mapping (Sebinkarahisar, Turkey). Bull Eng Geol Environ (2009) 68:459471. DOI 10.1007/s10064-009-0188-z. Mantovani , F., Gracia, F. J., Domenico de Cosmo, P. Andrea Suma. 2009. A new approach to landslide geomorphological mapping using the Open Source software in the Olvera area (Cadiz, Spain). Landslides (2010) 7:6974.DOI 10.1007/s10346-009-0181-4