AGRI

Market

Global Research Limited

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

REPORT

WEEKLY
Analyst Speak

Spices Are Down Due To Sluggish Export Demand

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segment

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Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

J E E R A(SEPTMBER)

G U A R S E E D (SEPTMEBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

JEERA WEAKENS ON LONG LIQUIDATION

Expert
Opinion

GUARSEED EXTENDS GAINS ON LIMITED STOCKS

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Jeera futures settled lower last week on account of long liquidation by the market participants. Declining arrivals and improved demand ahead of festivals also added bullish market sentiments. Traders are expecting fresh export enquiries in the coming days. Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). According to Spices Board of India exports of Jeera from India during April 2011- June 2011 stood at 5,750 tonnes as compared to 10,600 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 45.8%. NCDEX September Jeera prices are expected to trade higher due declining arrivals and expectation of demand from the domestic and overseas buyers. In medium to long term (September onwards); Jeera prices will depend on the demand from the overseas and domestic buyers. Prices will also take cues from the carryover stocks of Jeera with India. This season carryover stocks are expected to remain at the lower side owing to lower production. This is likely to support prices.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Guarseed and Guargum futures settled higher last week due to lower stocks with the stockists. Lower stocks of Guar gum resulting from robust exports of the same are likely to support prices. Sowing of Guar seed is lagging behind compared to last year due to uneven distribution of rainfall. However, forecast of normal to excess rains in the major Guar growing belts of Barmer, Jodhpur, Jaisalmer and Bikaner has raised the hopes of sowing. Special margin on all running contracts on buy side on Guar seed and Guar gum is applicable from 28th July 2011. Special margin of 10 percent along with 5% cash margin will be applicable on Guar gum while Guar seed special margin on long positions will account to 10 percent. According to the Rajasthan farm Department, Guar seed output in Rajasthan in the 2010-11 stood at 15.46 lakh tonnes. The estimated Indian output of 2010 is much higher than the 4.5 lakh tonnes of 2009- 10 and 9.510 lakh bags in 2008-09. According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guargum exports for the period AprilFebruary 2010-11 surged by 83% and stood at 3,52,911 tonnes as compared to 2,16,195 tonnes during the same period last year. Exports during the 11 months of FY 2010-11 are higher by 54% compared to the last year's total exports of 2.1 lakh tonnes. Guar futures are expected to trade sideways on account of fragile demand from the overseas buyers currently and lower stocks of Guar gum due record high export figures. Price trend after mid September would depend on the commencement and pace of arrivals of early sown Guar crop.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Long liquidation Declining arrivals

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Jeera was in downward trend but we saw a slight short covering in the later part of the week and Jeera closed near to its weekly opening. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 16150 and support at 15100.

STRATEGY
Jeera is in a consolidated phase and one should use the strategy of buy on lower levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains above the level of 16150 then we can expect the level of 16600, and if it sustains below 15400 then we can see the level of 15000.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Lower stocks Robust exports

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week in Guar seed we saw good short covering coming at lower levels and price remained bullish throughout the week. For the next week Guar seed has resistance at 4455 and support at 4215.

STRATEGY
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 4455 we can see the level of 4505 & above 4505 it can go further upside till 4555, and below 4215 it can touch the level of 4150.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 17100 16225 15829 15350 14954 14475 13600

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 5077 4688 4534 4299 4145 3910 3521

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Weekly Chart

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

SOYABEAN ( S E P T E M B E R )

C H A N A (SEPTEMBER)

Weekly Chart

Expert
Opinion

SOYBEAN GAINS ON LIMITED STOCKS

Expert
Opinion

CHANA SETTLES LOWER ON SELLING PRESSURE

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
NCDEX September Soybean futures traded slightly higher due to lower existing carryover stock of domestic Soybean as record high export figures of domestic oil meal in this financial year as compared to last year. However, lower due to favorable weather condition in major producing states like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan are in favor of the bears. USDA's Supply & Demand report released on August 11, 2011 which was considered bullish, Soybean production pegged at just 3.056 billion bushels, which was down 131 million bushels from trade expectations and down 169 million from last month. Average yield came in at 41.4 bushels per acre, down a full 2 bushels per acre from last month. Planted acreage was revised down by 200,000 acres and harvested down by 500,000. Beginning stocks came in 30 million bushels higher than last month, and in addition to the sharply lower production, the USDA lowered crush demand by 20 million bushels and export demand by 95 million bushels to get to the 2011/12 ending stocks of just 155 million bushels, which was down from 175 million estimated last month and 230 million this year and below expectations. World ending stocks for the 2010/11 season came in at a record-high 68.42 million tonnes, which was well above expectations. However, world ending stocks for the 2011/12 season were pegged at just 60.95 million tonnes, down from 61.97 million last month. Oil seed complex are expected to open higher due to firm overseas market as bullish USDA month supply /demand report. Lower existing carry over stock of domestic soybean as record high export figures of domestic oil meal in this financial year as compared to last year are also in favour of the bulls.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW
Chana futures traded negative last week. Traders took advantage of earlier prices gains and went for selling at higher price levels which led the prices to fall till the end of the week. However, the ongoing demand across the physical markets supported the prices to gain significantly to Rs.2960 per quintal. The decline in total acreage under Kharif pulses by 10.30 per cent also had an impact on market sentiments. Demand seems to be declining across the physical markets which might affect the prices during the day. Monsoon progress over north-west region might revive the sowing prospects of Kharif pulses in Rajasthan regions which might further have an impact over market sentiments. However, the fall might be limited owing to the decline in overall acreage under Kharif pulses due to scattered rains by 10.30 per cent to 81 lakh ha (as on 4th August, 2011) compared to that of last year. Decrease in price, volume and open interest indicates a bullish trend as the traders have covered their positions which might create fresh buying at lower price levels.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Lower existing carryover stock Favorable weather conditions

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Soybean was in downward trend but we saw a good short covering in the later part of the week and Soybean closed above to its weekly opening. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2505 and support at 2420.

STRATEGY
For next week in Soybean one should go for sell on higher level strategy. If it sustains below the level 2440 we can see the level of 2395 and on the upside if it sustains above 2480 level we can see Soybean at 2530 level.

REASONS FOR MOVEMENT

Kharif pulses Profit booking
Decline in total acreage under

MARKET OVERVIEW
Last week initially Chana was in downward trend but we saw a good short covering in the later part of the week. For the next week Chana has resistance at 3175 and support at 3045.

STRATEGY
For next week in Chana one should go for sell on higher level strategy. If it sustains below 3095 we can see the level of 3045 and on the upside if it sustains above the level of 3175 we can see Chana at 3210.

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 2626 2537 2499 2447 2410 2358 2268

WEEKLY PIVOTS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 Levels 3553 3323 3216 3093 2986 2863 2633

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Weekly Chart

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Symbol Exchange Expiry Date Commodity Name Price Unit Previous Close Open High Low Close Qty. Traded Net Weekly Open TurnOver * Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA PPRMLGKOC TMCFGRNZM GARSEDJDR GARGUMJDR CHARJDDEL SYBEANIDR SYOREFIDR RMSEEDJPR COCUDAKL GURCHMUZR POTATO KAPASSRNR WHTSMQDELI MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX MCX MCX

20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT -11 20-SEPT- 11 20-SEPT- 11 30-APR-12 20-SEPT -11 30-AUG-11 15-SEPT -11

Jeera Pepper Turmeric Guarseed Guargum Chana Soybean Soy Oil Refined Rape Mustard Seed Cotton Seed Oil Cake Gur Potato Kapas Wheat Mentha oil Cardamom

RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/QUINTAL RS/10KGS RS/20KGS RS/QUINTAL RS/40KGS RS/QUINTAL RS./20KG RS/QUINTAL RS/KG RS/KG

15799 29314 6738 4185 13524 3181 2474.5 646.4 2951 1260 1025.5 351.2 693 1163.8 1143.4 805.1

15730 29229 6682 4120 13380 3185 2458 642 2935 1255 1015 349.1 681 1167.8 1132 797

15747 30664 6766 4453 14057 3200 2485 654.2 2960 1333 1035.5 361 708.5 1180.6 1144 837.3

14872 28811 6110 4064 12803 2970 2395 638.05 2883 1253 1015 345.5 673.2 1157.6 1088 781.1

15433 30448 6334 4380 13823 3109 2462 651.95 2936 1314 1019 347.5 704.2 1158.8 1110.1 800.6

46710 22488 18755 1146110 115170 1375880

-366 1134 -404 195 299 -72 -12.5 5.55 -15

20112 7956 7105 119420 37025 337330 137050 138780 136630 39970 54

71,462.00 67,273.87 11,935.19 485,758.95 154,417.40 425,168.08 94,593.58 396,167.71 95,673.77 22,829.89 3,024.60 3,996.25 18,833.22 2,152.92 103,198.83 9,695.64
* Turnover Till Friday

388660
612550 326810 175680 11790 113040 13630 18440 25719 11945

-6.5 -3.7 11.2

9980 132075 4943 25580 -5

-33.3 -4.5

4111 2577

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Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Week : Aug 15th to 20th Aug 2011

Weekly Market Update Agri Watch

Weekly Pivots

Exchange
NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX NCDEX

Commodity
JEERA PEPPER TURMERIC GUARSEED GUARGUM CHANA SOYBEAN SOY OIL REFINED RAPE MUSTARD SEED COTTONSEED OIL CAKE GUR POTATO KAPAS WHEAT MENTHA OIL CARDAMOM

Closing Price
15433 30448 6334 4380 13823 3109 2462 651.95 2936 1314 1019 347.5 704.2 1158.8 1110.1 800.6

% Change
-2.32 3.87 -6.00 4.66 2.21 -2.26 -0.51 0.86 -0.51 4.29 -0.63 -1.05 1.62 -0.43 -2.91 -0.56

Scripts
JEERA (AUG) PEPPER (AUG) TURMERIC (AUG) GUARSEED (SEPT) GUARSGUM (SEPT) CHANA (SEPT) SOYBEAN (SEPT) REFINED SOYA OIL (SEPT) MUSTARD (SEPT)

R3
17100.67 33680.33 7715.33 5077.00 16069.00 3553.00 2627.33 680.37 3080.33

R2
16225.67 31827.33 7059.33 4688.00 14815.00 3323.00 2537.33 664.22 3003.33 1380.00 1043.67 366.83 730.60 1170.03 862.53

R1
15829.33 31137.67 6696.67 4534.00 14319.00 3216.00 2499.67 658.08 2969.67 1347.00 1031.33 357.17 717.40 1140.07 831.57

PP
15350.67 29974.33 6403.33 4299.00 13561.00 3093.00 2447.33 648.07 2926.33 1300.00 1023.17 351.33 695.30 1114.03 806.33

S1
14954.33 29284.67 6040.67 4145.00 13065.00 2986.00 2409.67 641.93 2892.67 1267.00 1010.83 341.67 682.10 1084.07 775.37

S2
14475.67 28121.33 5747.33 3910.00 12307.00 2863.00 2357.33 631.92 2849.33 1220.00 1002.67 335.83 660.00 1058.03 750.13

S3
13600.67 26268.33 5091.33 3521.00 11053.00 2633.00 2267.33 615.77 2772.33 1140.00 982.17 320.33 624.70 1002.03 693.93

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (SEPT) 1460.00 GUR (SEPT) POTATO (SEPT) KAPAS (APR 2012) MENTHA OIL (AUG) CARDAMOM (AUG) 1064.17 382.33 765.90 1226.03 918.73

Disclaimer

Weekly Gainers
Commodity GUARSEED Expiry Date 20-SEPT -11 Closing Price 4380 1314 % Change 4.66 4.29 3.87

Weekly Losers
Commodity TURMERIC MENTHA OIL JEERA Expiry Date 20-SEPT -11 30-AUG-11 20-SEPT -11 Closing Price 6334 1110.10 15433 % Change -6.00 -2.91 -2.32

The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above. The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

COTTONSEED 20-SEPT- 11 OIL CAKE PEPPER

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20-SEPT -11 30448

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