Market Insights

Headlines

17 August 2011

Market sentiment ends the overnight session more positively following early losses Risk instruments sent sharply lower in early trading after German GDP disappoints EUR sees choppy evening as Merkel and Sarkozy summit offers few solutions; financial tax could concern USD generally flat overnight, although sees gains against CHF; AUD bounces from 1.0400 US markets end the session lower after three monster days of gains; Dow closes 0.7% lower Tonight: Inflation in focus as EU CPI out at 7pm and US PPI at 10.30pm

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0530 Support 1.0400 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie dollar bounced from 1.0400 again overnight giving traders the opportunity to take new longs. For now, the Aussie looks to be trapped between 1.0400 and 1.0530. A break of 1.0530 will be seen as a buying opportunity, while any pullback to 1.0400 will also be seen as buyable.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1810 Support 1760 Market Sentiment

Bullish Gold continued to grind higher overnight. The market will now be eyeing the 1810 level in expectation of a re-test of the alltime highs. Any pullback to 1760 is likely to be taken advantage of by the bulls, while a break of 1790 has the potential for a short-term move to 1810 (or even higher).

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4450 Support 1.4300 Market Sentiment

Rangebound

The Euros had two failed attempts to break above 1.4450 over the last 24 hours or so, and this paints a more bearish picture for the EURUSD pair. This sets up a move back to 1.4300 but traders will be watching the 1.4300 for any signs of a bounce.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6475 Support 1.6350/400 Market Sentiment

Bullish The GBP/USD continued with its push higher overnight before running into resistance at 1.6475. Any move above this level will be seen as a buying opportunity. That said, theres the change of a move back to 1.6350/400, and traders will use any move to build new long positions.

USD/JPY
Resistance 77.00/20 Support 76.40 Market Sentiment

Bearish The USD/JPY has produced some real bunched-up and congested trade over the last week and the market looks to be producing a neutral symmetrical triangle at these lower levels. The market will be waiting for a break out of this pattern but any move is likely to be short-lived unless we see a clear break below 76.40 or intervention from the BoJ.

SILVER
Resistance 40.00/40 Support 39.30 Market Sentiment

Bullish Silver now looks to be forming a bullish ascending triangle, but any break higher will run into several layers of resistance between 40.00 and 40.40. As weve discussed previously, a clear break of 42.00 is needed for silver to take flight to the alltime highs at 50.00.

USD/CHF
Resistance 80.00 Support 78.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The USD/CHF bounced back strongly to resistance at 80.00 before heading lower, and traders will be watching the 80.00 level for any chance to take new shorts. However, be aware that a move above 80.00 will change the markets view to bullish.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 127.00 Support 125.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The GBP/JPY has continued higher, boosted by the gains in the GBP/USD, but the overall trend remains down. Traders will be waiting for an appropriate signal at higher levels to initiate new shorts.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 80.75 Support 80.00 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie-yen hasnt really followed through after its break above 80.00 and traders will now be a little cautious until we see a further break above 80.75.A break above 80.75 will be seen as a buying opportunity with targets back to 82.00

OIL
Resistance 88.00 Support 84.00/50 Market Sentiment

Bullish No real change on crude with oil still unable to break above 88.00. Traders will be waiting for a break above 88.00 to take new long positions.

Economic Calendar
F/Cast
AUD: MI Leading Index AUD: Wage Price EUR: Current Account GBP: Claimant Count

Last
-0.1% 0.8% -5.2b 24.5k GBP MPC Minutes EUR: CPI USD: PPI USD: Crude Oil

F/Cast

Last

0.9% -3.6b 20.1k

2.5% 0.0% -0.4m

2.5% -0.4% -5.2m

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