Market Insights

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18 August 2011

Markets see another calm night as last weeks volatility dies down USD resumes decline as markets focus on structural dollar weakness GBP surges higher despite bearish numbers from jobs, BoE minutes USD/CHF heads back lower as traders underwhelmed by SNB move US markets end the session lower after three monster days of gains; Dow closes 0.7% lower Tonight: US data will be key with CPI and employment due tonight

AUD/USD
Resistance 1.0600/20 Support 1.0520/480 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie dollar continued higher overnight after breaking above resistance at 1.0520. The pair found resistance up at 1.6000 and we might see a short term pullback in the Asian session. A pullback to 1.0520/480 will be seen as a buying opportunity.

XAU/USD
Resistance 1795 Support 1775/80 Market Sentiment

Bullish Golds moved into an extremely tight consolidation phase as we approach the all-time highs and this suggests we are seeing a little more caution from the bulls. A little nervousness is understandable as we approach the alltime highs, but traders are still likely to focus on the long side around 1775/80.

EUR/USD
Resistance 1.4540 Support 1.4300/50 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Euro presents a mixed picture, because while the technical suggest the Euro is due for a push higher, there are multiple layers of resistance above the current price. A break above 1.4540 has targets to 1.4580 and then 1.4690. The bears will be looking to sell around 1.4540.

GBP/USD
Resistance 1.6590 Support 1.6475 Market Sentiment

Bullish The GBP/USD surged higher overnight despite generally gloomy economic data from UK jobs and a dovish reading from the BoE minutes. After pulling back to 1.6350 the pair gained more than 250 pips and the pound now finds resistance at 1.6590. a break of 1.6590 is bullish.

USD/JPY
Resistance 77.00/20 Support 76.40 Market Sentiment

Bearish The USD/JPY broke below the symmetrical triangle we identified yesterday but the move lower was unable to push below key support at 76.40. Traders will be continuing to look to sell any push higher toward 77.00.

SILVER
Resistance 40.00/40 Support 39.80 Market Sentiment

Bullish Silver continues to struggle with resistance around 40.00/40 and traders will be waiting for a clear break above 40.40 for new longs. While the push higher will continue to face strong resistance , the bias remains to the upside.

USD/CHF
Resistance 80.00 Support 78.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The USD/CHF remains in the trading range and traders used the move to 80.00 for new short positions. The trend remains bearish and a break below 78.00 will see further selling pressure.

GBP/JPY
Resistance 127.00 Support 125.00 Market Sentiment

Bearish The GBP/JPY rolled over from resistance at 127.00 and this sets up a move to 125.00. Traders will be working any move higher to 127.00 as an opportunity to take new shorts.

AUD/JPY
Resistance 81.10 Support 80.40 Market Sentiment

Bullish The Aussie-yen looks bullish after it broke above 81.00. Traders will be looking for a pullback to 80.40 for new longs, while a break above 81.10 will also be seen as bullish.

OIL
Resistance 88.00 Support 86.00 Market Sentiment

Bullish Oil produced a false break above 88.00 overnight and this sets up a short-term move lower. That said, the market is likely to remain bullish, and any move back to 86.00 will be seen as a buying opportunity.

Economic Calendar
F/Cast
JPY: Trade Balance GBP: Retail Sales CAD: Leading Index CAD: Wholesale Sales

Last
CAD: USD: USD: USD: USD: Leading Index Core CPI m/m Unemployment Claims Existing Homes Sales Philly Fed

F/Cast
0.2% 0.2% 402k 4.94m 4.0

Last
0.3% 0.3% 395k 4.77m 3.2

-0.12t 0.3% 0.3%

-0.19t 0.2% 1.9%

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