THEREALDEALS

Ins&OutsofSingaporeRealEstate

Thepremiumtag
Whatisthepremiumaprivatecondominiumcancommandoveranexecutivecondominium(EC)?About20%,ifthe recentlandtenderinBuangkok/Sengkangisanyindication.ThelatestlandparceltobesoldundertheGovernment LandSales(GLS)programmeisaprivatecondominiumsiterightnexttotheplotthatcurrentlyisbeingdeveloped into an executive condominium. The site for the 540room Austville Residences was sold in May last year. We estimate the implied selling price of the latest GLS site to average around $850 psf, or 20% above what Austville Residencesiscurrentlyachieving. Pricewise,theECsitewassoldtoUnitedEngineersfor$176minMaylastyear,or$321psfppr.Thelatesttender result,announcedon2June2011,sawthehighestbidof$247m,or$391psfppr,fromQingdao.Thesecondhighest bidbyaJVbetweenFrasersCentrepointandLumChangwasonlyabout3%(or$11psfppr)lower,suggestingsimilar priceexpectationsfromthetoptwobidders.Interestingly,thetwodevelopersarenotnewtotheareawithaproject eachthatitiscurrentlyselling.QingdaoisabouttolaunchanECprojectattheneighbouringPunggolestatewhile theJVisthedeveloperforEsparinaResidences. ThesiteinquestionhasamaximumGFAof631,283sqftandcanpotentiallyyieldabout620units.Weexpectthe breakeven for the developer to be around $765 psf and are of the opinion that the average selling price for the projectisaround$850psf. LocationoffeatureddevelopmentsinBuangkok/Sengkang

TheQuartz $880psf

The Rivervale (EC) $653psf

Park Green $700psf

Latest Austville GLSsite Resi dences $850psf (EC) $710psf

Note:Projectsare99yrleasehold,EC=ExecutiveCondominium.Source:URA,KimEngestimates

Co.RegNo:198700034E MICA(P):090/11/2009

SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS

BUANGKOK/SENGKANG

TheRealDeals9June2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

TheRivervale(99yearleasehold,completedin2000) ParkGreen(99yearleasehold,completedin2004) AustvilleResidences(99yearleasehold,launchedinJanuary2011) AstudyoftherecenttransactionpricesofthethreeECprojectsintheBuangkok/Sengkangneighbourhood raises an interesting observation. All three developments are selling at prices within a narrow 10% range althoughthecompletedprojectsaremucholder.Thisyear,18unitsatTheRivervalechangedhandsatan average of $653 psf while 12 units at Park Green achieved an average of $700 psf. Units at Austville Residences, the latest project, currently sell at about $710 psf, a mere 1.5% above that for Park Green, whichwascompletedsevenyearsago.Locationwise,thethreeprojectsareadjacenttoeachother. NotethattheRivervaleisalreadymorethan10yearsoldandisthereforenotboundbyanyECrestrictions. ParkGreen,ontheotherhand,ismorethanfiveyearsoldanditsunitscanonlybesoldtoSingaporeansor permanent residents. We expect the price gap between Park Green and The Rivervale to widen as Park Greencrossesthe10yearperiod.Finally,AustvilleResidencesbuyersmustmeettheeligibilitycriteriasetby theHousingBoardandfulfilaminimumoccupationperiodoffiveyearsbeforetheirunitscanbesoldinthe resalemarkettoSingaporeansorpermanentresidents.Similarly,weexpectthepricegapbetweenAustville ResidencesandParkGreentowidenasrestrictionsareliftedfromthefifthyearonwards. TransactionpricesforTheRivervale,ParkGreenandAustvilleResidences
1000 800 600 400 200 0 08May98
Source:URA

TheRivervale AustvilleResidences ParkGreen

06Jul00

04Sep02

02Nov04

01Jan07

01Mar09

30Apr11

TheQuartz(99yearleasehold,completedin2010) UnitsatTheQuartz,aprivatedevelopmentlocatedastonesthrowawayfromtheBuangkokMRTStation, aretransactedat$700960psfinthefirstsixmonthsofthisyear.Averagesellingpriceoverthesameperiod for the 625unit project is in the region of $880 psf. Based on rental data for properties located along CompassvaleBow,themedianrentalcurrentlystandsat$2.75psfpm,translatingto3.75%grossyield. TransactionpricesforTheQuartz
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 17May06
Source:URA

17May07

16May08

16May09

16May10

16May11

MARKETSNAPSHOT

TheRealDeals9June2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

UpcomingVVIPLaunches JeanNouvelResidences(District9)
A156unitfreeholddevelopmenttobejointly developedbyCDLandWingTai,nestledinthe exclusiveArdmoreParkarea.

PropertyPriceIndices

Index LevelChange SRPIOverall(April11) 162.4 +1.0% RESIComposite(1Q11)4.9 0.8 URAPPI(1Q11) 198.8 +2.1% HDBResale(1Q11)174.8 +1.6%

*Shhh... if you have not yet been invited, you are probablynotaVVIP.Waitforthepubliclaunch.

GovernmentLandSales(GLS)
RecentlyAwardedSites Choa Chu Kang Dr, EC (44.3k sqm, 490 units) Topbidof$170.1m($320.9psfppr)fromCDL BartleyRd/LorHowSun(61.9ksqm,560units) AwardedtoHongLeong,CDLandTIDfor$413.3m ($620.6psfppr) BendemeerRd/WhampoaEast(65.2ksqm,780 units) Awarded to United Engineers for $543m ($774.1psfppr) Tampines Central 7, EC (66k sqm, 660 units) AwardedtoSimLianfor$278.8m($392.4psfppr) Hillview Avenue (40k sqm, 370 units) Awarded toFarEastfor$289.9m($672.6psfppr) Jalan Loyang Besar (56.6k sqm, 580 units) AwardedtoMCLlandfor$246.1m($402.4psfppr) SembawangRoad/Jalan Sendudok(38.7ksqm, 390 units) Awarded to Hao Yuan Investment for $191.8m($460psfppr) Buangkok Drive / Sengkang East Drive (58.6k sqm, 550 units) Highest bid of $247m from Qingdao($391psfppr)

Averagesellingprices($psf)
Period May11 Apr11 Mar11 Feb11 Jan11 Dec10 Nov10 Oct10 Sep10 Aug10 Jul10 Jun10 May10 Apr10 Mar10 Feb10 Jan10 Dec09 Nov09 Oct09 Sep09 Aug09 Jul09 Jun09
Source:URA

ParkGreen $745 $723 $684 $671 $696 $632 $636 $651 $634 $627 $604 $599 $600 $583 $583 $554 $545 $559 $530 $523 $546 $505 $546 $468

TheQuartz $941 $897 $897 $867 $838 $883 $863 $791 $862 $846 $852 $910 $765 $813 $810 $798 $751 $762 $754 $713 $721 $689 $668

The Rivervale $664 $661 $632 $651 $654 $620 $630 $591 $642 $629 $598 $615 $638 $588 $572 $564 $551 $533 $530 $522 $493 $497 $470

ConfirmedList(RecentlyOpenforTender) Woodlands Ave 2 / Rosewood Dr (38.3k sqm, 390units)Tenderclosingon7June FloraDrive(37.5ksqm,380units)Tenderclosing on16June

PropertyStocks
Name Allgreen CapitaLand CityDev HoBee HPL KeppelLand SingLand UOL Wheelock WingTai N.A.=NoCoverage

RNAV N.A. 4.3 13.45 2.87 4.28 5.37 10.3 N.A. N.A. 2.83

Price 1.6 3 10.82 1.42 2.35 3.92 7.03 4.97 1.9 1.57

Disc/Premium N.A. 30% 20% 51% 45% 27% 32% N.A. N.A. 45%

ReserveList(RecentlyOpenforTender) JalanJurongKechil(14.2ksqm,240units) Buangkok Dr / Sengkang Central (55k sqm, 495 units) TanahMerahKechilRd(39.2ksqm,470units) AlexandraRd(48.8ksqm,490units) StirlingRoad(44.5ksqm,445units) StirlingRoadB(44.1sqm,445units) EliasRd/PasirRisDr3(32.7ksqm,295units) HillviewAve(35.4ksqm,405units) SengkangSquare(64.4ksqm,710units)
Source:HDB,URA

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK
Developer District 06 09 10 10 11 17 18 18 18 18 19 19 23 23 Sentosa 01 02 04 04 04 04 19 22 03 09 10 10 15 16 20 26 Sentosa Sentosa 02 16 02 05 09 12 12 21 09 10

TheRealDeals9June2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

CityDev

KepLand

CapitaLand

HoBee UOL Allgreen Wheelock

Landbank SouthBeach(BeachRoad) Futura(LeonieRoad) BoulevardHotel(CuscadenRoad) LuckyTower(GrangeRoad) BuckleyMansion/9BuckleyRd(BuckleyRoad) HedgesPark(FloraRoad) NVResidences(PasirRis) PasirRisGrove,parcel3+stateland(PasirRis) PasirRisDrive8,parcels4+5(PasirRis) Tampines/UppChangiRdNorth H2OResidences(SengkangWestAve) BartleyRoadGLS(BartleyRoad) ChoaChukangGLS(EC)(ChoaChuKangDrive) SegarRoadGLS(EC)(SegarRoad) ResidencesatW(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits MarinaBaySuites(MarinaBay) Keppel&GETowerssite(TanjongPagar) ReflectionsatKeppelBay(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot3(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot4(KeppelBay) KeppelBayPlot5(KeppelBay) SengkangGLSsite(SengkangSquare) TheLakesideResidences(LakesideDrive) TotalUnsoldUnits TheInterlace(GillmanHeights) UrbanResort(CairnhillRd) Dleedon(FarrerRd) TheNassim(NassimRd) MarinePoint(MarineParade) BedokTownCentreSite(BedokCentral) BishanGLSsite(BishanStreet14) YioChuKangsite(YioChuKangRd) TotalUnsoldUnits SeascapeatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) PinnacleatSentosaCove(SentosaCove) TotalUnsoldUnits SpottiswoodeResidences(SpottiswoodePark) BedokReservoir(BedokReservoirRd) TotalUnsoldUnits Skysuites@Anson(EnggorStreet) ProjectatWestCoastRd(WestCoastRoad) RVResidences(RiverValley) RiverBay(MarThomaRd) Riviera38(MarThomaRd) TheCascadia(BukitTimahRoad) TotalUnsoldUnits ScottsSquare(ScottsRoad) Ardmore3(ArdmorePark) TotalUnsoldUnits

Tenure 99 Freehold Freehold Freehold Freehold 99 99 99 99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 99 99 99 99 99

99 Freehold 99 Freehold Freehold 99 99 Freehold

99 99

Freehold 99

99 Freehold 999 999 999 Freehold

Freehold Freehold

Unsold Units 119 122 203 178 64 371 90 752 1,517 605 231 560 490 602 207 6,110 83 620 338 307 234 94 622 64 2,362 378 43 1,352 55 150 469 650 140 3,237 113 357 470 39 640 679 236 80 248 147 102 45 858 96 84 180

DEVELOPERSLANDBANK(contd)
Developer Guocoland BtSembawang District 02 10 26 09 09 09 09 15 16 16 18 19 19 19 27 03 09 09 10 10 11 23 10 15 19 9 9 9 10 Sentosa

TheRealDeals9June2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

FrasersCentrepoint

WingTai

MCLLand

SCGlobal

Source:HDB,URA

Landbank Tenure TanjongPagarGLSwhitesite(PeckSeah/ChoonGuan) 99 LeedonResidence(LeedonHeights) 99 TheWaterline(YioChuKangRd) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits TheVermontonCairnhill(CairnhillRd) Freehold PatersonSuites(PatersonRd) Freehold StThomasWalk(StThomasWalk) Freehold TotalUnsoldUnits StarHubCentre 99 FlamingoValley(SiglapRd) Freehold WaterfrontGold(BedokReservoirRd) 99 WaterfrontIsle(BedokReservoirRd) 99 PasirRisGLS(PasirRisDrive3) 99 UpperSerangoonGLSsite 99 EsparinaResidences(Sengkang) 99 PunggolGLSmixedsite(PunggolCentral) 99 EightCourtyards(YishunAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits AscentiaSky(Redhill) 99 HELIOSResidence(CairnhillCircle) Freehold BelleVueResidences(OxleyWalk) Freehold LeNouvelArdmore(ArdmorePark) Freehold Anderson18(ArdmorePark) Freehold L'VIV(NewtonRd) Freehold ForesqueResidences(PetirRoad) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits NOBHill(EweBoonRd) Freehold CasaNassau(EastCoastRd) Freehold Terrasse(HougangAve2) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits TheMarq(PatersonHill) Freehold Hilltops(CairnhillCircle) Freehold MartinNo.38(MartinRd) Freehold TheArdmore(ArdmoreRoad) Freehold SevenPalms(SentosaCove) 99 TotalUnsoldUnits GrandTotal

Unsold Units 500 261 50 811 78 25 221 324 240 255 38 134 436 472 19 685 314 2,593 74 69 40 43 157 44 370 797 70 65 264 399 39 210 35 50 32 366 19,186

SINGAPOREDISTRICTMAP

TheRealDeals9June2011
Analyst:OOIYiTung6564335712ooiyitung@kimeng.com

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 BoatQuay,Chinatown,HavelockRoad,MarinaSquare,RafflesPlace,SuntecCity AnsonRoad,Chinatown,NeilRoad,RafflesPlace,ShentonWay,TanjongPagar AlexandraRoad,TiongBahru,Queenstown Keppel,MountFaber,Sentosa,TelokBlangah BuonaVista,Dover,PasirPanjang,WestCoast CityHall,HighStreet,NorthBridgeRoad BeachRoad,BencoolenRoad,Bugis,Rochor LittleIndia,FarrerPark,SerangoonRoad Cairnhill,Killiney,LeonieHill,Orchard,Oxley Balmoral,BukitTimah,GrangeRoad,Holland,OrchardBoulevard,RiverValley,TanglinRoad Chancery,BukitTimah,DunearnRoad,Newton Balestier,Moulmein,Novena,ToaPayoh PotongPasir,Macpherson Eunos,Geylang,Kembangan,PayaLebar Katong,MarineParade,Siglap,TanjongRhu Bayshore,Bedok,ChaiChee Changi,Loyang,PasirRis PasirRis,Simei,Tampines Hougang,Punggol,Sengkang AngMoKio,Bishan,BraddellRoad,Thomson Clementi,UpperBukitTimah,HumeAvenue BoonLay,Jurong,Tuas BukitBatok,ChoaChuKang,HillviewAvenue,UpperBukitTimah Kranji,LimChuKang,SungeiGedong,Tengah Admiralty,Woodlands Tagore,YioChuKang Admiralty,Sembawang,Yishun Seletar,YioChuKang

Source:expats2singapore.com

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9 June2011

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