Hot Days Along The West Antarctic Peninsula

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HOT DAYS ALONG THE WEST ANTARCTIC PENINSULA

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Tuesday, August 16, 2011
LTER Palmer has maintained a 19 year time series along the West Antarctic Peninsula
Current team The Boss!
Our Current grid
Bill Fraser (Polar Associates) - Penguins & Fish
Karen Baker (Scripps) - Data management & Informatics
PI Hugh Ducklow (MBL) Bacteria-Biogeochemistry Scott Doney (WHOI) - Ocean Modeling Beth Simmons (Scripps) - Education & Outreach
Oscar Schoeld (Rutgers) - Phytoplankton Sharon Stammerjohn (UCSC) Doug Martinson (LDEO) - Ocean Physics - Climate and Ice Debbie Steinberg (VIMS) - Zooplankton
Acknowledgements to past LTER PIs: Ray Smith, Barbara Prezelin, Robin Ross, Langdon Quetin, Dave Karl, Maria Vernet, Eileen Hoffman, John Klinck, Dave Karl
The man!
The man!
The central hypothesis when the LTER began was that sea ice timing and magnitude structure the productivity and composition of the Antarctic ecosystem. The ice dynamics are driven by large-scale interactions of the atmosphere and ocean.
Winter 2007
Summer 2007
(computer generated color is not accurate to pms ink color) This file is used only when printing using PMS ink (549U, K(black) ie. tshirts using 2 colors of ink
Temperature Trends (degrees C per year) -0.2

0.2
10 year analysis annual trends
ice decline
The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Air temperature increases over the peninsula Sea ice duration drops
Mean Winter Temperatures
Black is British Faraday & Ukraine Vernadsky Station Red is US Palmer Station

Larson-B ice shelf after its collapse Thanks to BAS & A. Clarke
Melt pools on surface of King George VI Sound

(from a BAS twin otter, January 2004)
Seasonal ice has declined over the few decades resulting to a climate migration y 1 a to the South M
2 0 00
Fe
15 b
Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman
% Ice r ve co
ar e Y
1 80 9
Seasonal ice has declined over the few decades resulting to a climate migration y 1 a to the South M
2 0 00
Fe
15 b
Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman
% Ice r ve co
ar e Y
1 80 9
Key Implications: Regional shifts in the sea ice has major ecological implications
1990
Palmer Station in the present
photo by Bill Fraser

Plants at Palmer Station, the greening of Antarctica
Heat input from Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC - worlds largest ocean current = ~30,000 Niagara Falls). The heat is driven onto the shelf by intensication of upwellingfavorable winds.
The WAP is the only location in the Antarctic where the ACC is adjacent to the shelf break. The ACC is Antarcticas warmest water
WW!
UCDW!
Distance Offshore (km)!

Antarctic Peninsula!
Depth (m)!
Tmax!
thanks to Doug Martinson
Upwelling favorable winds result in Ekman mass transport offshore
5.2 2.0
7 Eddies, based on Tmax and Q transients (300.100)
5.0 1.9
Identified from Q characteristics and Tmax values ( ~6.66 day)
Q (x109 Jm-2)
T (C)
4.8 1.8
4.6 1.7
4.4 1.6
4.2 1.5 4.0 1.4
!!
Month/day (2008)!
thanks to Doug Martinson
~ 1 day ~30 km ~ 1.5 days ~40-50 km ~ 1 day ~30 km
~ 1 day ~30 km
2011: Eddies moving across shelf?
Heating on the WAP is driven by circulation and intrusion of the of the ACC onto the WAP continental shelf.
Meredith and King 2005 Meredithand King, 2005
Martinson al, 2008 Martinson etet al. 2008
Summer sea surface temperature Summer sea surface temperature increasing +0.04 C/year +0.4 C/year increasing
Evidence of solar ocean warming Evidence of solar ocean warming
Ocean heat content increasing on the Ocean heat content increasing on the continental shelf of the WAP
continental shelf (of the western AP)
Evidence of increased upwelling of Evidence of increased upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Waters warm Circumpolar Deep Waters
Palmer time series: Phytoplankton show large interannual variability
Chlorophyll (g/L)
50
25
0 1991
Year
2006
What regulates phytoplankton blooms in this region?

3 mg m-3
Integrated chlorophyll a above the mixed layer
CHL a
UML
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 25 mol l-1
NO3
0 2 mol l-1
PO4
mixed layer depth (m)

0 DEC
JAN
FEB
15 year time series of radiocarbon measurements also suggest a North & South gradient
Vernet et al. DSR 2008

The decadal changes have resulted changes in the phytoplankton

The change in chlorophyll since the 1970s
The changes driven by a decline in sea ice, wind and sun

Montes Hugo et al. Science 2009
When chlorophyll is high, phytoplankton cells are big and are largely diatoms
Montes Hugo et al. 2009

Who will dominate the warmer WAP?

Prymnesiophytes
Proportion of total chlorophyll a associated with diatoms
Diatoms Cryptophytes
1
34
0.8
0.4 0.2 0
Salinity
0.6
33
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Proportion of total chlorophyll a associated with cryptophytes
32 -1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
1.5
Temperature (C)
Moline et al. GBC 2004
Salinity (p.p.t) 33.3 33.6 33.8 Palmer Station
65S
Antarctic Peninsula
64W % Cryptophytes 0 25 50
65S


100m Thalassiosira antarctica
Corethron criophilum
Palmer Cryptophytes --> 8 2m
SEM Micrographs fromMcMinn and Hodgson 1993
10m Cryptomonas cryophila
A general feature in the warming WAP?
Temperature (C)
Salinity (ppt)
Density ()
Location
South Shetland Islands Weddell-ScotiaBellingshausen Confluence Areas
Reference
V illafae et al., 1995; Kang, S-H et al., 1997; Kang, J-S et al., 1997 Lancelot et al., 1991; Nothig et al., 1991 Trguer et al., 1991; Buma, 1992; Mura et al., 1995; Kang and Lee, 1995; Aristegui et al., 1996 McMinn and Hodgson, 1993 Kang and Lee, 1995; Kang et al., 1995 Krebs, 1983 Whitaker, 1982
Ellis Fjord Bransfield Strait Historical Data Anvers Island Signy Island
Zooplankton are dominated by krill or salps
Krill greatest biomass of any animal on earth
% Retention by Krill
100 80 60 40 20 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 40 30 20 10 0
McClatchie and Boyd 1983
5-10
>15 Boyd et al. 1984
5-10
>15
Quetin and Ross 1985
5-10
>15
Phytoplankton Size (m)
From Loeb et al., 1997
Krill:Salp
100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 2 6
Krill:Salp
80 100
82
84
86
R 2 = 0.56 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001
Year
88
90
92
94
96
Krill:Salp
100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 R 2 = 0.63 -4
Ice Index
Mean Air Temperature (C)

-2
Ice Index
Is there an impact on higher trophic levels?
One focus idea of the LTER is testing, is that system is undergoing climate migration. We have structured sampling around the major Adelie penguin breeding areas along the peninsula.
Summer foraging areas for Adelie penguins
Winter foraging areas for Adelie penguins
To be expanded by NASA grant awarded in Dec.
Anvers Island
Anvers Island
Changing diets for the Adelie penguins

1% 1%
1994present
98%
Krill Fish Other

1% 1%
1994present
98%
Krill Fish Other
1%
1995present
45% 54%
NORMALIZED OTOLITH ABUNDANCE IN DIET SAMPLES

-0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 -1 0 1 2
Silverfish
Lanternfish
YEAR
LANTERFISH
ANTARCTIC SILVERFISH
19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 83 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01
If that was not enough, warmer temps leads to more moisture and more snow. Breeding failure...........
ADELIE (% CHANGE)
100 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0
BREEDING POPULATION CHANGE (%)
YEAR
0 500
Adelie
Gentoo Chinstrap
19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03
GENTOO & CHINSTRAP (% CHANGE)
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Adelie penguins Weddell seals
Chinstrap penguins Gentoo penguins Fur seals Elephant seals
100 80 60 40 20 0 1975
7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
YEAR
Ice-avoiding species % chan
Ice-dependent sp
70 West
69 West Rothera Station
Old Day Communication
Brave New Day
Adelaide Island
68 South WHOI Drifter Ocean Station Obama RU05 Plan RU05 Actual
RV Gould Rothera Base
Real time comms
HAM Operator Coms Palmer Station 1988 Rutgers COOLroom

Enhanced productivity is associated with the warm upwelled water
Glider measurements of Fv/Fm indicate that the phytoplankton populations associated with upwelling are healthy
Results from the 2011 eld season: Tidal structuring of the penguin foraging Moline, Oliver, Frazer, Kohut, Schoeld
Radio-tagged penguins Adelie (blue) Gentoo (red) Chinstrap (green)
Blue = semi-diurnal tides Red = diurnal tides
Glider currents
Conclusions: Minor variations in the ocean state can have profound impacts on polar ecosystems These profound changes are occurring in many polar oceans, changes appear to be accelerating New technologies offer a mode to study and understand these changes, so it is time hopefully speed up our uphill trek to quantitative understanding, animals will help show us the way

Hot Days Along The West Antarctic Peninsula

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HOT DAYS ALONG THE WEST ANTARCTIC PENINSULA

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Current team The Boss!

Our Current grid

Bill Fraser (Polar Associates) - Penguins & Fish

Karen Baker (Scripps) - Data management & Informatics

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Temperature Trends (degrees C per year) -0.2

10 year analysis annual trends

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Mean Winter Temperatures

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

The WAP peninsula is experiencing the largest winter warming on Earth

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Melt pools on surface of King George VI Sound

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman

Sea ice data courtesy of E. Chapman

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Palmer Station in the present

photo by Bill Fraser

Plants at Palmer Station, the greening of Antarctica

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Distance Offshore (km)!

thanks to Doug Martinson

Upwelling favorable winds result in Ekman mass transport offshore

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

7 Eddies, based on Tmax and Q transients (300.100)

Identified from Q characteristics and Tmax values ( ~6.66 day)

4.2 1.5 4.0 1.4

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

thanks to Doug Martinson

~ 1 day ~30 km ~ 1.5 days ~40-50 km ~ 1 day ~30 km

2011: Eddies moving across shelf?

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Martinson al, 2008 Martinson etet al. 2008

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Palmer time series: Phytoplankton show large interannual variability

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

What regulates phytoplankton blooms in this region?

Integrated chlorophyll a above the mixed layer

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

mixed layer depth (m)

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Vernet et al. DSR 2008

The decadal changes have resulted changes in the phytoplankton

The changes driven by a decline in sea ice, wind and sun

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Montes Hugo et al. 2009

Who will dominate the warmer WAP?