Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
STI :
2,824.96
SingTel StarHub M1
StarHub BUY for (i) ~7% yield based on annual 20 Scts DPS, official policy is 5 Scts each quarter for 2011 (ii) low to mid-single digit earnings growth from potentially lower handset subsidy burden in FY12F. SingTel HOLD for (i) 6% yield based on 70% payout ratio, official policy is 55-70% payout ratio and (ii) Midsingle digit earnings growth prospects in FY13F (March YE) mainly from growth at Bharti and Telkomsel M1 HOLD for 6% yield based on 80% payout ratio, official policy is min 80% payout ratio (ii) Stable earnings prospects in FY12F as fair value accounting for handsets may offset benefits from National Broadband Network.
www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: MY / sa: TW
20.0%
2009 StarHub
2010 M1
1Q11
2Q11
0% 2008
2009 SingTel
2010 StarHub
1Q11 M1
2Q11
As shown in the charts above, M1s share of handset subsidy is far lower compared to its mobile revenue share. This can be attributed to its adoption of fair value accounting policy in 2010. M1 recognizes handset revenue at the cost of future service revenue, leading to lower handset subsidy costs. This practice boosted M1s past earnings at the cost of future earnings. With potentially slower smartphone sales in 2012F, we are afraid that M1s share of mobile revenue may decline while its share of handset subsidy may increase.
SingTel continued to gain revenue share in both postpaid and prepaid segments. This was driven by more attractive line of handsets and devices offered slightly earlier than peers, its key focus on pushing data-only SIM cards by bundling them with fixed broadband service and attractive discounts to existing subscribers on re-contracting.
373
400
422
425
431
495
512
522
533
537
2009
StarHub
2010
M1
1Q11
2Q11
0 2008
2009
1Q11
2Q11
Page 2
49
51
47
45
45
247
269
278
542 292
544
1174
1211
1226
70 316
313
69 301 2Q11
1Q11
2Q11
2008
2009 SingTel
2010
1Q11 StarHub
Page 3
Regional Valuations
Company FYE Mkt Cap (US$m) Price (S$) 17-Aug 23,668 75.60 4.60 14.60 1,503 30.04 5.36 4.05 4.98 2,829 2.49 2.97 2.76 925 115.00 68.25 4.12 3,953 5,450 7,200 5,300 11,550 2,175 Target Price (S$) % Upside Rcmd Avg 6-mth Vol (m) CAGR 10-12 (%) PE (x) 11F 12F Dividend Yield (%) 11F 12F P/BV 10A EV/EBITDA 11F 12F
China / Hong Kong China Mobile China Telecom China Unicom Malaysia Digi.Com Maxis Bhd Telekom Axiata Group Singapore M1 SingTel Starhub
3 20 66 7 -2 6 4 15 8 3 5 10 5 4 5 nm 5 28 7 20 na 89
10.0 18.0 52.6 10.8 22.1 16.5 25.7 14.1 17.1 13.3 11.9 15.3 12.3 14.8 13.6 98.2 42.2 24.2 11.4 11.8 72.2 23.3
9.8 13.8 28.0 9.9 21.0 15.6 23.9 12.4 15.6 13.4 11.2 14.7 11.5 14.3 14.1 70.8 33.0 17.0 10.8 10.3 29.7 17.0
4% 8% 11%
Thailand Advanced Info Service Dec Total Access CommunicationsDec Dec True Corporation Indonesia Indosat PT Telekom XL Axiata PT Sarana Menara Tower Bersama
6% 10% 9%
Page 4
StarHub
Bloomberg: STH SP
Reuters: STAR.SI
Annual DPS of 20 Scts (over 7% yield) can be sustained over the next three years Revised monthly subscription fee for pay TV to benefit 2H11F earnings Maintain BUY with DCF-based TP of S$3.05.
Price Relative
S$ 3 .4 0 3 .2 0 3 .0 0 2 .8 0 2 .6 0 2 .4 0 2 .2 0 2 .0 0 1 .8 0 1 .6 0 2007 2008 2009 2010
Management does not rule out upside potential to 20 Scts DPS. Management does not rule out further capital
management over the next 18 months in addition to 20 Scts DPS. StarHubs free cash flow is likely to be ~120% of FY11F earnings, as the company pays minimal cash tax due to its deferred tax assets. Besides healthy free cash flow generation of S$40m-S$350 from operations in FY11F-12F, StarHub may receive total cash payment of of S$40-60m from the regulator over the next three years on achieving certain milestones as OpCo for National Broadband Network. StarHub received its first payment of S$60m from the regulator last year.
Sta rH u b (LH S)
Re la tive ST I IN D E X (R H S)
Turnover EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs:
2,150 654 385 320 320 18.6 18.6 1 18.6 18.4 7.0 14.4 14.4 6.9 8.1 6.9 38.3 5.6 278.1
2,238 601 318 264 264 15.4 15.4 (17) 15.4 20.0 3.2 17.5 17.5 7.1 8.7 7.4 85.0 10.8 302.1
2,333 669 373 309 309 18.0 18.0 17 18.0 19.9 1.4 14.9 14.9 7.5 7.7 7.4 194.7 23.3 793.6 17.7 S: 5
2,384 693 388 322 322 18.8 18.8 4 18.8 20.8 0.5 14.3 14.3 7.5 7.4 7.7 509.3 59.3 1,964.9 19.0 H: 10
Over 7% yield & mid-single digit earnings growth in FY12F. While there is not much clarity on the cross-carriage of
content, it should help to lower the content cost over the long run benefiting pay TV players. BUY with S$3.05 TP based on DCF (WACC 7.6%, terminal growth 0%), implying potential returns of 18% including 7% yield.
B: 7
ICB Industry : Telecommunications ICB Sector: Mobile Telecommunications Principal Business: Spore-based integrated information, communications and entertainment company, providing a broad range of mobile, cable TV, broadband and fixed network services.
At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) Major Shareholders Asia Mobile Holdings (%) Nippon Telegraph (%) Mediacorp (%) Free Float (%) Avg. Daily Vol.(000)
Page 5
www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: TAT
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
Revenues (S$ m) Mobile Cable TV & Broadband Fixed Network Equipment sale Others Total EBITDA (S$ m) Mobile Cable TV & Broadband Fixed Network Equipment sale Others Total EBITDA Margins (%) Mobile Cable TV & Broadband Fixed Network Equipment sale Others Total Income Statement (S$ m)
FY Dec
30.3
30.4
26.9
28.7
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011F
2012F
20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 2009A 2010A 2011F
N Incom M et e argin%
Revenue Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x)
2,133 0 413 0 0 (26) 0 387 (72) 0 0 316 316 648 6.0 0.8 (1.8) (4.9) 19.4 14.8 291.1 18.7 31.3 97.8 16.2
2,150 0 408 0 0 (23) 0 385 (65) 0 0 320 320 654 0.8 0.9 (1.1) 1.2 19.0 14.9 278.1 18.9 31.6 99.0 17.7
2,238 6 340 0 0 (22) 0 318 (54) 0 0 264 264 601 4.1 (8.1) (16.8) (17.5) 15.2 11.8 302.1 15.0 26.8 130.0 15.5
2,333 6 394 0 0 (21) 0 373 (63) 0 0 309 309 669 4.3 11.4 15.8 17.3 16.9 13.3 793.6 17.1 30.7 110.4 18.9
2,384 6 409 0 0 (21) 0 388 (66) 0 0 322 322 693 2.2 3.7 3.8 4.1 17.1 13.5 1,964.9 17.5 31.1 111.0 19.8
2012F
O peratingM argin%
Adversely impacted by high iPhone subsidy costs in the first year of iPhone rights
Page 6
Asset Breakdown 896 0 356 126 18 133 132 1,661 219 588 694 51 110 0 1,662 (305) (787) 22.2 100.9 4.2 1.3 0.5 0.3 7.2 7.2 24.3 3.6 883 0 356 234 18 107 132 1,730 219 658 694 39 120 0 1,730 (400) (679) 20.4 92.5 4.4 1.3 0.6 0.4 5.6 5.6 25.4 3.5 894 0 356 237 28 149 132 1,796 219 760 604 159 54 0 1,796 (451) (586) 20.9 97.9 5.1 1.3 0.6 0.4 10.8 10.8 33.0 3.1 898 0 356 270 29 146 132 1,830 219 738 604 245 24 0 1,830 (431) (553) 23.1 105.3 6.2 1.3 0.6 0.4 23.3 23.3 34.0 3.2 878 0 356 285 30 159 132 1,840 219 751 604 256 9 0 1,840 (431) (538) 23.3 101.5 6.3 1.3 0.6 0.5 59.3 59.3 32.2 3.2
Inventory 2.2%ebtors - 11.1% D
Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets ST Debt Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholders Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab. Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X)
Bank, Cashand LiquidA ssets 18.1% N FixedA et ssets - 68.6% A ssociates'/JVs 0.0%
Net debt was reduced due to S$60m cash payment from the regulator for achieving certain OpCo milestones
Capital Expenditure
300
Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts)
387 235 11 0 (35) 0 598 (222) 0 0 0 3 (219) (308) (54) 2 (29) (388) 0 (10) 36.9 21.9
385 245 (6) 0 35 10 670 (232) 0 0 0 0 (232) (309) 0 0 (24) (333) 2 108 37.0 25.6
318 261 0 0 62 6 646 (272) 0 0 0 4 (268) (343) (90) 0 58 (375) 0 3 34.1 21.8
373 275 (11) 0 (29) 6 615 (280) 0 0 0 0 (280) (343) 0 0 40 (303) 0 32 37.5 19.5
388 285 (63) 0 (4) 6 612 (265) 0 0 0 0 (265) (342) 0 0 10 (332) 0 16 35.9 20.2
Second cash payment from the regulator. May be delayed to 2012F but should not be a matter of concern
Page 7
Margins Trend
25% 20%
Revenue Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%)
15%
10%
5%
0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
O peratingM argin %
N Incom M et e argin %
Due to high equipment and marketing cost. High equipment cost is a concern due to slow adoption of Android phones
1.8 5.4 5.4 12.9 16.8 13.7 Adversely impacted by higher equipment and marketing costs in 1Q11
Page 8
SingTel
Bloomberg: ST SP
Reuters: STEL.SI
Price Relative
S$ 4 .4 0 3 .9 0 3 .4 0 2 .9 0 124 2 .4 0 1 .9 0 2007 104 84 2011 R e la tiv e In d e x
2008
2009
2010
Re la tive ST I IN D E X (R H S)
Turnover EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs:
16,871 7,275 5,043 3,907 3,907 24.6 24.6 13 24.6 14.3 140.8 11.8 11.8 10.3 7.1 4.9 2.1 0.2 18.2
18,139 7,290 5,021 3,822 3,822 24.1 24.1 (2) 24.1 16.8 150.6 12.1 12.1 11.0 7.1 5.8 1.9 0.2 16.5
18,617 7,557 5,203 3,954 3,954 24.9 24.9 3 24.9 18.7 158.7 11.7 11.7 11.1 6.8 6.4 1.8 0.2 16.1 24.7 S: 1
19,236 7,835 5,539 4,218 4,218 26.6 26.6 7 26.6 18.6 166.5 10.9 10.9 11.0 6.5 6.4 1.7 0.2 16.3 26.6 H: 12
B: 11
ICB Industry : Telecommunications ICB Sector: Telecommunications Principal Business: SingTel operates and provides telecommunication systems and services and engages in investment holdings.
At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) Major Shareholders Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (%) Free Float (%) Avg. Daily Vol.(000)
Page 9
www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: TAT
DCF based target price assuming 8% WACC and Terminal growth rate of 0% Rs 310 per share based on 16x FY12F PER
100% 32%
Based on 12x FY12F (March YE) earnings Consensus Target price of PHP 841 DBS Vickers Target price of THB 122 Includes Singpost and others 10% holding company discount in light of strong SGD versus regional currencies
14% 3% 6% 1%
Page 10
Key Assumptions
FY Mar 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F
Singapore Revenue Singapore EBITDA Optus Revenue (A$m) Optus EBITDA Margin Associate pre-tax Segmental Breakdown Income Statement (S$ m)
FY Mar
Margins Trend
2009A 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F
25.0% 24.0%
Revenue Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x)
14,933 (1,641) 2,697 (24) 2,051 (288) (6) 4,429 (982) 0 0 3,448 3,454 6,458 0.6 (7.6) 1.9 (13.0) 18.1 23.1 16.6 10.1 7.0 58.0 9.4
16,871 (1,783) 2,969 0 2,410 (336) 0 5,043 (1,136) 0 0 3,907 3,907 7,275 13.0 12.7 10.1 13.3 17.6 23.2 18.2 11.4 7.6 58.0 8.8
18,139 (1,892) 3,137 0 2,166 (283) 0 5,021 (1,199) 0 0 3,822 3,822 7,290 7.5 0.2 5.7 (2.2) 17.3 21.1 16.5 10.5 7.5 70.0 11.1
18,617 (1,979) 3,120 0 2,363 (281) 0 5,203 (1,249) 0 0 3,954 3,954 7,557 2.6 3.7 (0.5) 3.5 16.8 21.2 16.1 10.5 7.1 75.0 11.1
19,236 (1,927) 3,256 0 2,557 (274) 0 5,539 (1,321) 0 0 4,218 4,218 7,835 3.3 3.7 4.3 6.7 16.9 21.9 16.3 10.8 7.2 70.0 11.9
23.0% 22.0% 21.0% 20.0% 19.0% 18.0% 17.0% 16.0% 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F
O peratingM argin% N Incom M et e argin%
Singapore and Australia may face margin pressure due to NG-NBN and aggressive Telstra respectively
Page 11
Asset Breakdown 9,784 7,931 11,746 1,076 107 2,575 37 33,255 1,427 3,676 5,668 1,984 20,464 24 33,243 (958) (6,019) 62.7 122.7 4.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 26.0 4.0 9,838 8,830 11,971 1,613 121 2,909 37 35,317 1,427 4,043 5,668 1,784 22,372 24 35,318 (977) (5,482) 59.3 113.5 4.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 25.5 4.2 10,117 9,517 12,586 1,697 130 3,127 37 37,210 1,427 4,383 5,668 1,784 23,928 24 37,213 (1,089) (5,398) 60.7 114.9 4.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 29.5 4.1 10,333 10,324 12,398 1,946 133 3,210 37 38,379 1,427 4,480 5,668 1,577 25,206 24 38,382 (1,101) (5,150) 62.1 117.2 4.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 29.4 4.2 10,449 11,174 12,375 2,081 137 3,317 37 39,570 1,427 4,615 5,668 1,387 26,459 24 39,580 (1,124) (5,015) 61.9 114.8 4.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 29.0 NA
Inventory D 0.5%ebtors - 12.5%
Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets ST Debt Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholders Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab. Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X)
A ssociates'/JVs 39.0%
Capital Expenditure
2100 2050 2000 1950 1900 1850 1800 1750 1700 1650 2009A 2010A 2011F
Capital Expenditure (-)
Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts)
4,429 1,734 (335) (2,051) 441 (124) 4,094 (1,847) 0 (194) 1,068 (349) (1,322) (1,999) (466) 0 (553) (3,018) (50) (296) 23.0 14.1
5,043 1,897 (503) (2,410) 602 (158) 4,470 (1,807) 0 0 858 (372) (1,321) (2,000) 0 0 (634) (2,634) 23 538 24.3 16.8
5,021 1,989 (483) (2,166) 26 (192) 4,194 (2,091) (600) 0 849 0 (1,842) (2,266) 0 0 0 (2,266) 0 86 26.2 13.2
5,203 2,077 (568) (2,363) 10 (222) 4,136 (2,087) 0 0 877 0 (1,209) (2,675) 0 0 0 (2,675) 0 252 26.0 12.9
5,539 2,026 (570) (2,557) 13 (253) 4,197 (2,061) 0 0 968 0 (1,093) (2,965) 0 0 0 (2,965) 0 139 26.3 13.4
2012F
2013F
Operating cash minus investing cash flow likely to remain comfortably above S$3 bn without any acquisitions
Page 12
Margins Trend
35% 30%
Revenue Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%)
4,289 (460) 771 0 541 (79) 0 1,233 (292) 0 942 941 1,756
4,436 (455) 708 0 567 (88) 0 1,187 (296) 0 891 891 1,756
4,706 (454) 784 0 518 (66) 30 1,266 (266) 0 1,000 970 1,805
4,643 (468) 893 0 514 (92) (6) 1,309 (317) 0 992 998 1,907
4,605 (470) 783 0 508 (93) 60 1,258 (342) 0 916 856 1,792
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
O peratingM argin %
N Incom M et e argin %
Page 13
M1
Bloomberg: M1 SP
Reuters: MONE.SI
Price Relative
S$ 2 .7 0 2 .5 0 2 .3 0 2 .1 0 1 .9 0 1 .7 0 1 .5 0 1 .3 0 1 .1 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 R e la t iv e In d e x 218 198 178 158 138 118 98 78 2011
M 1 (L H S )
R e la t iv e S T I IN D E X ( R H S )
Revenue EBITDA Pre-tax Profit Net Profit Net Pft (Pre Ex.) EPS (S cts) EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) Diluted EPS (S cts) Net DPS (S cts) BV Per Share (S cts) PE (X) PE Pre Ex. (X) P/Cash Flow (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Net Div Yield (%) P/Book Value (X) Net Debt/Equity (X) ROAE (%) Earnings Rev (%): Consensus EPS (S cts): Other Broker Recs:
781 302 181 150 145 16.9 16.3 (3) 16.8 13.5 27.5 14.7 15.3 10.0 8.1 5.4 9.1 1.0 65.6
980 309 190 158 158 17.5 17.5 7 17.5 17.5 32.2 14.3 14.3 12.0 8.2 7.0 7.7 1.0 58.9
970 313 204 170 170 18.8 18.8 8 18.7 15.0 33.5 13.3 13.3 9.1 8.2 6.0 7.4 1.0 57.2 18.7 S: 3
980 313 203 167 167 18.5 18.5 (1) 18.5 14.8 37.0 13.4 13.4 8.6 8.1 6.0 6.7 0.9 52.6 20.0 H: 7
B: 11
ICB Industry : Telecommunications ICB Sector: Mobile Telecommunications Principal Business: MobileOne is one of the main telecommunication operators in Singapore.
Page 14
www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: TAT
Company Focus M1
Segmental Breakdown
FY Dec 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
Revenues (S$ m) Post Paid Cellular Pre Paid Cellular IDD Revenue Equipment Sales Total Income Statement (S$ m)
FY Dec
Surged because M1 started to apply fair value accounting from FY10 onwards
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011F
2012F
Margins Trend
25.0% 23.0% 21.0% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
Revenue Other Opng (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Preference Dividend Net Profit Net Profit before Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins & Ratio Opg Profit Margin (%) Net Profit Margin (%) ROAE (%) ROA (%) ROCE (%) Div Payout Ratio (%) Net Interest Cover (x)
800 (118) 192 0 0 (8) 0 184 (35) 0 0 150 150 313 (0.4) (2.0) (5.7) (13.0) 24.0 18.7 71.9 18.1 26.8 80.0 24.2
781 (119) 183 0 0 (8) 6 181 (31) 0 0 150 145 302 (2.3) (3.5) (4.7) 0.6 23.5 19.2 65.6 18.4 25.8 80.0 24.2
980 (114) 194 0 0 (4) 0 190 (32) 0 0 158 158 309 25.4 2.1 6.0 4.8 19.8 16.1 58.9 17.6 25.0 100.0 44.9
970 (105) 209 0 0 (4) 0 204 (35) 0 0 170 170 313 (1.0) 1.5 7.3 7.5 21.5 17.5 57.2 17.2 24.3 80.0 48.1
980 (105) 208 0 0 (5) 0 203 (36) 0 0 167 167 313 1.0 0.0 (0.3) (1.2) 21.2 17.1 52.6 16.2 22.6 80.0 43.0
Operating Margin %
Page 15
Company Focus M1
Balance Sheet (S$ m)
FY Dec 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
Asset Breakdown (2009) 611 0 83 17 8 80 3 803 0 233 250 107 214 0 803 (141) (233) 36.8 195.4 8.3 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.1 38.0 3.5 612 0 83 7 8 120 3 834 0 224 250 115 245 0 834 (92) (243) 46.9 197.5 8.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.0 48.0 3.3 598 0 83 9 10 253 3 956 0 274 297 94 291 0 956 (8) (288) 69.5 142.2 6.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 33.7 4.0 609 0 83 31 10 281 3 1,018 0 274 347 94 302 0 1,018 20 (316) 100.5 158.8 6.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 33.5 4.0 617 0 83 43 10 297 3 1,053 0 278 347 94 334 0 1,053 33 (304) 107.7 156.2 6.6 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.9 32.5 4.0 Capital Expenditure
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F
140
Debtors 29.1%
Net Fixed Assets Invts in Associates & JVs Other LT Assets Cash & ST Invts Inventory Debtors Other Current Assets Total Assets ST Debt Other Current Liab LT Debt Other LT Liabilities Shareholders Equity Minority Interests Total Cap. & Liab. Non-Cash Wkg. Capital Net Cash/(Debt) Debtors Turn (avg days) Creditors Turn (avg days) Inventory Turn (avg days) Asset Turnover (x) Current Ratio (x) Quick Ratio (x) Net Debt/Equity (X) Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) Capex to Debt (%) Z-Score (X)
Inventory 1.2% Bank, Cash and Liquid Assets 1.0% Associates'/J Vs 0.0%
Pre-Tax Profit Dep. & Amort. Tax Paid Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) Chg in Wkg.Cap. Other Operating CF Net Operating CF Capital Exp.(net) Other Invts.(net) Invts in Assoc. & JV Div from Assoc & JV Other Investing CF Net Investing CF Div Paid Chg in Gross Debt Capital Issues Other Financing CF Net Financing CF Currency Adjustments Chg in Cash Opg CFPS (S cts) Free CFPS (S cts)
184 121 (48) 0 0 (3) 254 (95) 0 0 0 (2) (97) (128) (35) 0 0 (163) 0 (6) 28.6 17.9
181 119 (35) 0 (44) 0 221 (120) (14) 0 0 0 (134) (120) 0 0 22 (97) 0 (10) 29.8 11.4
190 114 (31) 0 (86) 0 188 (100) (20) 0 0 0 (120) (120) 47 9 (1) (66) 0 2 30.3 9.7
204 105 (32) 0 (31) 0 246 (116) 0 0 0 0 (116) (158) 50 0 0 (108) 0 22 30.6 14.3
203 105 (35) 0 (13) 0 260 (113) 0 0 0 0 (113) (136) 0 0 0 (136) 0 12 30.3 16.3
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Company Focus M1
Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$ m)
FY Dec 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011
Margins Trend
30% 25%
Revenue Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc Operating Profit Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc Associates & JV Inc Net Interest (Exp)/Inc Exceptional Gain/(Loss) Pre-tax Profit Tax Minority Interest Net Profit Net profit bef Except. EBITDA Growth Revenue Gth (%) EBITDA Gth (%) Opg Profit Gth (%) Net Profit Gth (%) Margins Opg Profit Margins (%) Net Profit Margins (%)
Operating Margin %
Benefited from lower depreciation charges as some assets were fully depreciated
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DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows: STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame) BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps) HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps) FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months) SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)
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3.
ii.
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