August

17, 2011
MEMORANDUM

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: DAVID FLAHERTY

MAGELLAN DATA AND MAPPING STRATEGIES
RE: NEVADA CD02 SPECIAL ELECTION SURVEY TOPLINE RESULTS
________________________________________________________________________________________________
Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies are pleased to present the topline results of a
656N autodial survey of likely general election voters in Nevadas Second
Congressional District. The interviews were conducted August 15th and August 16th,
2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/ 3.82% at the 95 percent confidence
interval. The survey results were weighted based upon past general election voter
turnout demographics.
T1. Are you registered to vote as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent voter?

Republican.................................................................................... 48%
Democrat ...................................................................................... 38%
Independent ................................................................................ 14%

T2. How likely are you to vote in the September special election for Congress?

Extremely Likely ........................................................................ 88%
Very Likely ...................................................................................... 7%
Somewhat Likely .......................................................................... 5%

Magellan ID# NVCD02081511 Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 8/15/118/16/11, MoE +/ 3.82%, 656n

Page 2 of 4

Thinking now about people active in Nevada politics..

T3. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kate Marshall?

Favorable ...................................................................................... 33%
Unfavorable ................................................................................. 43%
No Opinion ................................................................................... 16%

Name ID ......................................................................................... 92%
Hard Name ID ............................................................................. 76%
Never Heard Of .............................................................................. 8%

T4. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Amodei?

Favorable ...................................................................................... 38%
Unfavorable ................................................................................. 36%
No Opinion ................................................................................... 19%

Name ID ......................................................................................... 93%
Hard Name ID ............................................................................. 74%
Never Heard Of .............................................................................. 7%

T5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Approve ......................................................................................... 32%
Disapprove ................................................................................... 63%
Unsure/No Opinion ..................................................................... 5%

T6. If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the
candidates were Kate Marshall, Democrat, Mark Amodei, Republican, Timothy
Fasano, Independent American, or Helmuth Lehmann, Independent?

Mark Amodei .............................................................................. 48%
Kate Marshall .............................................................................. 35%
Timothy Fasano ............................................................................ 4%
Helmuth Lehmann ....................................................................... 2%
Undecided ..................................................................................... 11%

Definitely Mark Amodei ......................................................... 37%
Probably Mark Amodei ........................................................... 11%

Definitely Kate Marshall ......................................................... 30%
Probably Kate Marshall ............................................................. 5%

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies| 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585

Magellan ID# NVCD02081511 Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 8/15/118/16/11, MoE +/ 3.82%, 656n

Page 3 of 4

T7. If the election for Congress was being held today, for whom would you vote if the
candidates were Kate Marshall, Democrat, or Mark Amodei, Republican?

Mark Amodei .............................................................................. 51%
Kate Marshall .............................................................................. 36%
Undecided ..................................................................................... 13%

Definitely Mark Amodei ......................................................... 38%
Probably Mark Amodei ........................................................... 13%

Definitely Kate Marshall ......................................................... 30%
Probably Kate Marshall ............................................................. 6%

T8. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or
liberal on fiscal issues, such as taxes and government spending?

Conservative ................................................................................ 55%
Moderate ....................................................................................... 32%
Liberal ............................................................................................ 11%
Unsure/No Opinion ..................................................................... 2%

T9. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate or
liberal on social issues, such as same sex marriage and abortion?

Conservative ................................................................................ 43%
Moderate ....................................................................................... 32%
Liberal ............................................................................................ 22%
Unsure/No Opinion ..................................................................... 3%

T10. For statistical purposes, are you a man or a woman?

Female ............................................................................................ 53%
Male ................................................................................................. 47%

T11. Which of the following age groups applies to you?

1834.................................................................................................. 8%
3544............................................................................................... 12%
4554............................................................................................... 20%
5564............................................................................................... 26%
65+ ................................................................................................... 34%

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies| 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585

Magellan ID# NVCD02081511 Nevada CD02 Special Election Survey Topline Results
Field Dates: 8/15/118/16/11, MoE +/ 3.82%, 656n

Page 4 of 4

T12. For statistical purposes only, what is your race? Press 1 if you are white, Press
2 if you are Hispanic or Latino, press 3 if you are black or African American, press 4
if you are another ethnic group.

White .............................................................................................. 86%
Hispanic or Latino ........................................................................ 6%
Another ethnic group ................................................................. 5%
Black or African American ....................................................... 3%

Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies| 1685 Boxelder St. Ste 300 | Louisville, CO 80027
www.MagellanStrategies.com | (303) 8618585