GLOBAL CHALLENGES FACING HUMANITY POPULATION AND RESOURCES 1. C.B.VENKATA KRISHNA PRASAD 2. Dr. K. UDAY GOWRI SHANKAR 3. Dr.

. SUJA S. NAIR ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, JB INSTITUTE PG COURSES, TIRUPATI. The current world population of 6.7 billion is expected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, peaking soon afterward at 9.8 billion and then falling to 5.5 billion by 2100, according to the UN lower forecast. Scientific breakthroughs over the next 50 years are likely to change these forecasts, giving people longer and more productive lives than most would believe possible today. Nevertheless, global population is changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. A quarter of the world (excluding Africa) will be over 60 years old in 2050. There will be more people over 60 than under 15 by 2045, according to the UN medium forecast. Today about 65% of older persons live in developing countries; by 2050 nearly 80% will. To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation. UN estimates that 37 countries face a crisis over food. Prices of cereals are up 129% since 2006. The 2008 Rome Conference on Food Security in response to the world food crisis created global short- and long-term strategies with UN agencies, governments, and NGOs to act as a system to feed the world. Because food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years, because the demand for animal protein may increase 50% by 2020, because there are shortages of water, and because many of the other factors that doubled rice and wheat prices are expected to continue, new agricultural approaches will be needed such as meat production without growing animals; better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management; genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops; precision agriculture and aquaculture; drought-tolerant crop varieties; and saltwater agriculture on coastlines to produce food for humans and animals, biofuels, pulp for the paper industry, to absorb CO2, to reduce the drain on freshwater agriculture and land, and to increase employment. This paper tries to explore the various ways and means to identify the reasons for the problem according to regions and also to find out the actions to face the challenge of balancing population and resources.

Introduction The current world population of 6.7 billion is expected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050, peaking soon afterward at 9.8 billion and then falling to 5.5 billion by 2100, according to the UN lower forecast. Scientific breakthroughs over the next 50 years are likely to change these forecasts, giving people longer and more productive lives than most would believe possible today. Nevertheless, global population is changing from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility. A quarter of the world (excluding Africa) will be over 60 years old in 2050. There will be more people over 60 than under 15 by 2045, according to the UN medium forecast. Today about 65% of older persons live in developing countries; by 2050 nearly 80% will. To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation. UN estimates that 37 countries face a crisis over food. Prices of cereals are up 129% since 2006. The 2008 Rome Conference on Food Security in response to the world food crisis created global short- and long-term strategies with UN agencies, governments, and NGOs to act as a system to feed the world. Because food production has to increase 50% by 2013 and double in 30 years, because the demand for animal protein may increase 50% by 2020, because there are shortages of water, and because many of the other factors that doubled rice and wheat prices are expected to continue, new agricultural approaches will be needed such as meat production without growing animals; better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management; genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops; precision agriculture and aquaculture; drought-tolerant crop varieties; and saltwater agriculture on coastlines to produce food for humans and animals, biofuels, pulp for the paper industry, to absorb CO2, to reduce the drain on freshwater agriculture and land, and to increase employment. An animal rights group has offered $1 million to the first producers of commercially viable animal meat without growing animals by 2012. Currently, agriculture uses 80% of arable land in developing countries, of which 20% is irrigated. Massive efforts are required to maintain fertile cropland. FAO estimates that $1520 billion a year is needed to boost food production to control soaring food prices. Climate change and monocultures undermine biodiversity, which is critical for agricultural viability. Just over 50% of humanity lives in urban areas today. Half of them live in cities of less than 500,000 inhabitants. By 2030 over 80% of humanity is expected to live in urban concentrations. During the same period, the 1 billion people living in slums today could double. About 385 million people are malnourished, and 25% of children worldwide have protein-energy malnutrition, which reduces cerebral development. Continued economic growth will increase the demand for meat, requiring more land and water. This will further increase competition between agricultural resources for food versus energy. However, rural populations are expected to continually shrink after 2015, freeing additional land for agriculture. About 40% of agricultural land is moderately degraded and 9% is highly degraded, reducing global crop yield by as much as 13%. A quarter of all fish stocks are overharvested; 80% cannot withstand increased fishing pressure. UN estimates that water for agriculture needs to increase 60% to feed an additional 2 billion people by 2030, even as urban water requirements are increasing. Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and sanitation produced by more intelligent human-nature symbioses, increased migrations, conflicts, and disease seem inevitable. ICT continues to more optimally match needs and resources worldwide in real time, and nanotech will help reduce material use per unit of output while increasing quality. Another challenge will be addressed seriously when the annual growth in world population drops to fewer than 30 million, the number of hungry people and the infant mortality rate both decrease by half from their peaks, and new approaches to aging become economically viable.

India has the largest number, 200 million, of hunger people in the world, according to the Global Hunger Index (GHI) 2008, published by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The GHI ranks India at a poor 66 out of 88 developing countries-slightly above Bangladesh, and below all South Asian nations and several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Indias GHI score of 23.7 places it in an alarming (score between 20 and 29.9) situation. The other hunger situations are Extremely Alarming (score above 30), serious (10 to 19.90), moderate (5 to 9.9) and low (less than 4.9). The Global Hunger Index, 1990 and 2008: Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 14 15 39 57 61 63 66 Country Mauritius Jamaica Moldova Cuba Peru Trinidad & Tobago Algeria Albania Turkmenistan El Salvador Malaysia Morocco South Africa China Sri Lanka Nepal Pakistan Rwanda India 1990 6.1 8 7.3 19.5 8 7.4 10.5 9.7 9.5 7.7 7.4 11.6 19.1 27.6 25.3 28.3 32.5 2008 5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.9 6 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.9 7.1 15 20.6 21.7 22.3 23.7

The hunger index is calculated using three equally-weighted indicators: the proportion of the population that is calorie-deficit, he prevalence of underweight children under the age of five, and the under-five morality rate.

Regional Considerations: Africa: About 40% of children under five are chronically malnourished. Africa is the only region with a median age below 20 today, and in 2050 the share of population aged 60 or above will still be just slightly above 10%. Ten of the 34 countries with life expectancies of 49 years or below are in West Africa. Sub-Saharan population is growing at the rate of 2.5% per year compared with 1.2% in Latin America and Asia. Some 1213 million Africans are expected to move from villages to urban areas during 2008. The population of urban slums in Africa could increase to 350 million by 2020. Much of the urban management class is being seriously reduced by AIDS, which is also lowering life expectancy. Conflicts continue to

prevent development investments, ruin fertile farmland, create refugees, compound food emergencies, and prevent better management of natural resources. Asia and Oceania: China is growing old before it has grown rich. With the one-child policy (to continue for at least another decade), the fertility rate in China has fallen to 1.7 from about 5 in the 1970s. The number of Chinese over 60 is expected to grow from 144 million in 2005 to 430 million by 2040. China could experience labor shortages in two years. The boy-to-girl ratio in 2007 was 118 to 100; China could be short 15 million women in 15 years. China has to feed 22% of the worlds population with less than 7% of the worlds arable land and could face a food shortfall of 100 million tons by 2030. India has more than 500 million people under 25, will have more people than China by 2050, and has more malnourished children than subSaharan Africa. Japans workforce is expected to shrink from 66.5 million to 42 million by 2050. Without some 4,000 new immigrants, Japanese population would have decreased in 2007. Japan expects to use robots to handle the future aging population. Australias population is growing due to migration. By 2025 South Asians may consume 70% more milk and vegetables and 100% more meat, eggs, and fish than today. Asians earning more than $7,000 annually outnumber the total population of North America and Europelaying the foundation for unprecedented consumption. New concepts of employment may be needed to prevent political instability among the 60% of Arabs who are now under 25 and face poor prospects for conventional employment. Europe: By 2031 the population is expected to reach 71.1 million, with 22% over the age of 65. Spains fertility rate is 1.1, Italys is 1.2. Russias falling birth rates may be changing with government incentives like reproduction days off and $10,000 when the second child turns three; its birth rate increased 9% during 2007 and death rate decreased by 8%. Europes aging and shrinking population and the dearth of young people will force changes in pension and social security systems, incentives for more children, and increased immigration, affecting international relations, culture, and the social fabric. Latin America: The region is aging, but not as rapidly as Europe is. The population is expected to grow from 550 million today to about 800 million by 2050 and become 85% urban by 2030, requiring massive urban and agricultural infrastructural investments. Some 16% of children under five suffer from chronic malnutrition. North America: Less than 2% of the U.S. provides the largest share of world food exports. In the past two years, the U.S. allocated more than 20 million tons of grain to ethanol production, about half of the additional grain supply needed worldwide to have averted the current food crisis. Global warming should increase Canadian grain exports. Biotech and nanotech are just beginning to have an impact on medicine; hence dramatic breakthroughs in longevity seem inevitable in 2550 years. Reducing throw-away consumption in favor of knowledge and experience could change the population-resource balance. In the U.S., the Incentives for Older Workers Act was introduced to eliminate barriers for older Americans wishing to work longer and to encourage employers to recruit and retain them.

Suggested Actions:

1. Governments, with some leadership also from non-governmental organizations

(NGOs) and corporations, should encourage development of high-yield, sustainable agriculture, particularly through biotechnology. There is greater public acceptance of biotechnology for medicines than for foods. Biotechnology for food will be more acceptable when people look more carefully at the cost/effect ratio of it. Add corporate leadership.... This action is a top priority of my government.... Science and technology can feed the world.... Agreed, but by itself, it cannot solve the food problem.... Many regions lack arable land and should seek new sources of food, such as from the sea. Water takes up 71% of the world's surface, and the potential production from the sea is very high. Industrialized production of algae in arid areas is an effective measure to solve the food problem.

2. NGOs, with some leadership from governments, should increase social marketing
programs that teach family planning. Focus on men, as well as women, and the community as a whole. Village leaders should be involved..... Social marketing should also include reproductive health, nutrition, and child and maternal survival.... We cannot control family planning, it has to be voluntary. Social marketing does not make a difference until infant mortality rates begin to fall.

3. Governments and NGOs, with some leadership from corporations, should

establish many micro-credit mechanisms to promote loans to women in third world countries to establish new businesses. This is increasingly being understood and implemented, even by the World Bank. Accessibility has increased considerably, now focus on awareness of the programs and marketing skills.... Since increasing income is a leading indicator of falling fertility rates and credit is a proven way to increase income, this will be an effective policy.... Yes, but get more leadership from corporations.... Add training by the UNDP, ILO, UNESCO, and other international organizations and NGOs. Make sure honest management and monitoring are part of this action to make sure it gets to the poorer people.

4. Promote the self-determination and economic autonomy of women, (but take care
to operate within the permissible local socio-cultural and religio-moral norms and limits). Focus on rural populations with radio and television shows that feature women who have become successful.... Special-training programs should be developed. Government and NGOs should lead educational efforts, but government should help provide the minimum threshold of support. More effective and more important than pure business activities would be to strengthen women's awareness and confidence in being independent and taking initiative. NGOs should take the lead. As women become more involved in the cash economy, birth rates decrease in big cities of poor countries. Address the symptoms not the cause.

5. Actively seek religious dialogues on the changing roles of women and birth
control. Interfaith coalitions should lead and should not focus just on women, but on men, the family, and the community. Use folk arts in the rural areas. Religious leaders, government, and NGOs should collaborate.