1.

Define what is meant by and give an example of (a) a random variable, (b) discrete random variable, and (c) discrete probability distribution. Random variable is a numerical description of outcome of an experiment. It is a variable that is obtained as a result of chance factors, so they cannot be predicted in advance. Random variable can be classified as being either discrete or continuous depending on the numerical vales it assumes. Example of continuous random variable: length of a bridge. Discrete random variable is characterized by gaps or interruption. It may assume either a finite number of values or an infinite sequence of values. Example: the numbers of students went to student officer on February 10, 2009. Discrete probability distribution describes how probabilities are distributed over the values of the discrete random variable. Probability distribution is defined by a probability function p(x). The required conditions for a discrete probability function are f(x)0, f(x) =1. We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or equation. 2. State the conditions required to apply the binomial distribution. Binomial distribution is widely known; (1) the experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trails; (2) each trial results in one of two possible outcomes (success and failure); (3) the probability of success is constant across trials; (4) the trials are independent. The probability of failure (q) = 1 p. p is probability of success

3. Suppose that the probability of a parent having a child with blond hair is .
If there are 6 children in the family, what is the probability that half of them will have blond hair? Calculate the expected value and standard deviation and determine the symmetry or asymmetry of the probability distribution of blond children. p= 0.25, n=6, x=3, Expected value(x) = n * p = 6 * 0.25 = 1.5 Standard Deviation(x) = [np(1-p)]1/2 = [6(0.25)(1-0.25) ]1/2 = (1.125) =1.061 b/c p<0.5, skew to the left, asymmetry of the probability distribution

4. What is the difference between the binomial distribution and the Poisson distributions? Binomial (definition) mathematical Poisson (definition) mathematical

expression of the probability of the # of successes (x) in n identical trials

Discrete random variable may assume a finite value or an infinite sequence of values -the probability of success (denoted p) is constant across trial -the trials are independent f(x)= n!/[x!(n-x)!]px(1-p)(n-x) E(x)==np, Var(x)=2=np(1-p), SD= =[np(1-p)]1/2

expression of the probability for the number of random, independent occurrences (x) of a relatively rare event over some interval of time/space (for rare events, when the probability of occurrence is low) Discrete random variable only assume an infinite sequence of values -the probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal length -the occurrence or nonoccurrence in any interval is independent of the occurrence or non occurrence in any other interval f(x)=xe-/x! = 2 (mean and variance are equal)

5. Give some examples of when we can apply the Poisson distribution. The number of motorcycles that pass through a certain point on a road (sufficiently distant from traffic lights) during a given period of time. The number of suspects were arrested last weekend. The number of houses were auctioned last month. The number of birds were killed by lighting last year.

6. Give the formula for the Poisson Distribution and the meaning of the various symbols. f(x) = (xe-) x factorial f(x) = probability of x occurrences in an interval = mean # of occurrences in an interval e = 2.71828

7. Under what conditions can the Poisson distribution be used as an approximation to

the binomial distribution and why can this be useful? (1) when n is large, n20 (2) probability is small (rare events): np or n(1-p)<5 so =np, 2=np(1-p) The binomial distribution converges towards the Poisson distribution as the number of trials goes to infinity while the product np remains fixed. Therefore the Poisson distribution with parameter = np can be used as an approximation to B(n, p) of the binomial distribution if n is sufficiently large and p is sufficiently small. According to

two rules of thumb, this approximation is good if n 20 and p 0.05, or if n 100 and np 10.

8. Past experience shows that 1% of all medical records in a pharmacy are in error.
Find the probability that more than 1 medical record is in error in a random sample of 30 records. = 30 * 0.01 = 0.3 p(x>1)=1-p(x1)=1-[p(x=0)+p(x=1)]=1-0.741-0.222=0.037 p(x=0) = 0.30e-0.3/0!=0.741 P(x=1) = 0.31e-0.3/1!=0.222 9. Define what is meant by a continuous variable and give some examples. Continuous variable does not possess gaps or interruptions. It may assume any numerical value in an interval or collection of intervals. It is more precise than discrete. It can be fractional. Examples: a persons weight. 10. Define what is meant by a continuous probability distribution. Probabilities are measured over intervals, not single points. That is, the area under the curve between two distinct points defines the probability for that interval. Continuous probability arises when a variable is influenced by many small independent factors. (1) range of all possible value + probability (2) probability density function (PDF) (3) smooth curve (4) x can assume infinite value, p(x)=0, (5) measure the probability that continuous random variable x assume any value with a given interval, p(x1<x<x2)=f(x) 11. What is a normal distribution? What is the usefulness of a normal distribution? Normal distributions are a family of distributions that have the same general shape. (1) bell shaped, (2) symmetric about its mean (3) unimodal, the mean, median and the mode are all equal (4) extends from x =- to +. The total area under the curve above the x-axis is one square unit. The normal distribution is defined by the mean and variance 2.

12. What is the standard normal distribution? What is its usefulness?

Standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Normal distributions can be transformed to standard normal distribution by the formula: z = (X - ) Easily to calculate the probability 13. Find the area under the standard normal curve between (a) z 1; (b) z = 0 to z = 0.88; and (c) to the left of z = -1.60. (a) z=-1, 0.1587; z=1, 0.8413 0.8413-0.1587= 0.6826=68.26%

(b) z=0, 0.5000; z=0.88, 0.8106 0.8106-0.5000= 0.3106= 31.06% (c) z=-1.60, 0.0548=5.48%

14. Experience indicates that 30% of the people entering a chain pharmacy store to fill
a prescription also make an unrelated purchase. Using the normal approximation to the binomial, find the probability that out of 30 people entering the store, 10 or more will make an unrelated purchase. =np=30*0.3=9 2=np(1-p)=30*0.3*(1-0.3)=6.3 =2.51 z= (10-9)/2.51=0.40 0.6554 1-0.6554=0.3446=34.46% 15. The grades on the midterm examination in a large biostatistics class are normally distributed with a mean of 78 and a standard distribution of 8. The professor wants to give the grade of A to 10% of the students. What is the lowest (percentage) grade point that can be designated an A on the midterm? 1-10%=0.9 z=1.28 z = (X - ) = (x-78)/8=1.28 z x=88