INTRODUCTION

WHAT AND WHY OF STATISTICS FOR AGRICULTURE Students of agriculture often question the value of statistics to their field of study. To address this question, it is important to understand the nature of statistics. How does it work? What are some important applications to agriculture? The objective of this text is to provide the students with an understanding of the basic concepts of statistics in agriculture. 1.1 WHAT IS STATISTICS? The word "statistics" can be singular or plural. In singular form it refers to a field of study, as one would refer to Agronomy and Soils, Animal Science, etc. In the plural form it represents a group of numbers or collection of data. The field of statistics is composed of both theory and methods which govern its application. In what follows, we shall look upon statistics as a methodological tool in analyzing numerical data to make better decisions. Statistics was developed to assist in those areas where laws of cause and effect are not apparent to the observer and where an objective approach is needed (Steel and Torrie, 1980) .The field of statistics has contributed substantially to the evolution of agricultural research. While the history of statistics is long, we can look at the very recent past to see its contributions to agriculture. To appreciate the important role that statistics has played in agriculture, we need look no further than the writings of Charles Darwin (1809-1882). Darwin used biometrical or statistical theories to renew enthusiasm in his field of biology. Mendel, another noted biologist, in 1885 used a statistical approach to answer questions in plant hybridization. The writings of Darwin and Mendel provided a basis for the expansion of the field of statistics. Later in the 19th century Karl Pearson (1857-1936) applied mathematical concepts to Darwin's theories of evolution. Pearson's research (mostly large sample) in statistics spanned over half a century. Though making substantial contributions, the large sample theory soon was found inadequate to experimentation with the small samples which necessarily occur in many fields. A most interesting factor contributed to the development of concepts dealing with small samples. In 1906 the Guinness brewery wanted to select a sample beer tasting, but the question of how large a sample to reach a sound conclusion became financially crucial. Gossett, a mathematician, was asked to determine sample size needed for a statistically sound beer tasting. In 1908, Gossett, under the pen name Student, published work in Biometrika. Gossett developed the formula for the standard error of the mean, which specified how large a sample must be, for a degree of precision, in order to generalize its results to the entire drinking population. This formula has contributed to further evolution in small experimental samples in agronomy, animal science, economics, and agricultural engineering.

1.2 WHY STUDY STATISTICS FOR AGRICULTURE? The need for better analytical tools to analyze data led to major developments in statistics. These tools have played a significant role in the analysis and interpretation of data. In many instances, we use sample data to make inferences about the entire instance, a plant scientist who is interested in helping farm operators obtain higher yields from improved varieties of crops, would conduct field experiments, and the results of his work in the form of a recommendation is reported to the farm operators for consideration. Animal scientists use statistical procedures to aid in analyzing purposes. Animal scientists are constantly improving the breeding of farm animals and fowl, as well as their nutritional need. Animal nutritionists use statistical experiments to distinguish the impact of new rations on an impact of such factors as age, vigor, and heredity are taken into account. Without such statistical techniques and procedures, animal scientists would face considerable uncertainty in reporting the studies and their recommendations to farmers. Agricultural economists use forecasting procedures in order to determine the future demand and supply of food. Measuring demand is a difficult task in agricultural economics. Published projections of the available supply of food have an impact on the price of the commodity to consumers. As a consequence the impact of incorrect projections are considerable for the entire economy. Alternatively, agricultural economists use regression analysis in the empirical estimation of functional relationships between quantitative variables. In studies of this type we may be interested, for example, in the impact of farm size on net income per acre. Agricultural engineers use statistical procedures in many areas, such as for irrigation research, modes of cultivation, and design of harvesting and cultivating machinery and equipment. Comparison of drying methods for grain and other crops use sophisticated statistical techniques.