SALES SLIP, RECORD LOW INVENTORY

New Home Sales Tuesday August 23, 2011

20 10 400 Monthly % Change 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11
Monthly % Change Sales (Thousands of Units)

450

Thousands of Units

350

300

250

Record High: 1389k (07/05)

Percent Change from Record High: -78.5%

New home sales fell 0.7% in July to an annualized pace of 298k, compared to market expectations for a small increase to a rate of 315k. Meanwhile the prior month was revised slightly lower. Despite this months decline, new home sales are 6.8% above their year ago level in July 2010 but remain a stunning 78.5% below their peak level in July 2005. At just under a 300k annual rate, new home sales remain exceptionally weak. Regionally, sales were mixed with a large gain in the Northeast, a modest gain in the Midwest, and medium declines in the West and South. New home sales in all areas of the country remain 40% to 50% lower than their 5-year average annual rate. The inventory of new homes available for sale fell 0.6% to a record low level of 165k which represents a 6.6 month-supply at the current sale pace. Such low inventory levels will support pricing and the potential for new residential construction when demand strengthens. Home prices were up from one year ago; median sales prices gained 4.7% from July 2010 to $222,000 as average prices gained 8.0% to $272,300. New home sales remain quite slow and continue to face competition from the large number of distressed properties on the market. Demand remains constrained by slow job growth, tight credit and higher energy costs. It will be a rebound in the broader economy that would restore demand drivers and get homebuilding and new home sales back on track . THOUSANDS OF UNITS
Forecast: Consensus*: Actual: 315k 315k 298k Monthly Jul-11 298 -0.7 28 100.0 43 2.4 163 -7.4 64 -5.9 165 6.6 222.0 4.7 272.3 8.0 Jun-11 300 -2.9 14 -26.3 42 0.0 176 1.7 68 -9.3 166 6.6 236.8 7.9 272.0 6.0 May-11 309 -2.2 19 -24.0 42 2.4 173 3.0 75 -8.5 168 6.5 221.9 -3.7 262.8 -6.5 Apr-11 316 3.6 25 0.0 41 5.1 168 -1.8 82 17.1 173 6.6 224.7 7.9 268.9 -0.6 Three Month 302 Six Month 302 Twelve Month 301 Average for 2010 321 -14.1 31 -2.7 45 -17.7 173 -14.5 74 -15.3 190 8.0 221.2 3.1 271.5 1.2 2009 374 -22.4 31 -11.1 54 -21.8 202 -23.8 87 -22.9 234 9.0 214.5 -6.9 268.2 -7.2 Five Year 599 Ten Year 845

New Home Sales (percent change) Northeast (percent change) Midwest (percent change) South (percent change) West (percent change) Inventory Months of Supply Median Sales Price ($000) (year-on-year % change) Average Sales Price ($000) (year-on-year % change)

20 42 171 69

22 40 170 70

25 40 166 71

45 89 321 143

60 140 421 224

166 6.6 226.9 2.8 269.0 2.2

172 6.9 224.3 2.2 266.6 -0.5

184 7.4 225.5 3.4 270.2 -0.4

362 8.5 230.6

376 6.3 215.4

288.2

268.2

Source: Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Via Haver Analytics. Data, graph & table courtesy of Insight Economics *Bloomberg 2011 HousingMatrix, Inc.| http://www.HousingMatrix.com | All rights reserved. Reproduction and/or redistribution are expressly prohibited. Hot Sheet is a registered trademark of HousingMatrix, Inc. Information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed.