Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
URANIUM REACTION
Camecos Bid for Hathor May be the Starters Pistol TIMING IS EVERYTHING
Last week we noted that we were at a point of maximum pessimism and that there were no foreseeable negative catalysts in the uranium space. Thanks to Cameco (CCO-TSX), that point may have only lasted a day. As a result of Camecos $520 million dollar hostile bid for Hathor Exploration (HAT-TSXV) the uranium sector appears to have reignited again. Since our first report last week, the average return of the group of equities we highlighted gained 11.8% on average. We continue to believe that there is more potential upside in the uranium sector relative to potential downside.
Exhibit 1. One-Week Performance of Highlighted Uranium Names
Equity Research
Company Name Cameco Uranium One Uranium Participation Fission Energy Kivalliq Energy Energy Fuels Group Average
Source: Versant Partners
24/08/2011 31/08/2011 Return $21.98 $22.73 3.4% $2.77 $2.68 -3.2% $5.84 $6.00 2.7% $0.50 $0.71 42.0% $0.33 $0.41 24.2% $0.31 $0.32 1.6% 11.8%
Since we do not formally cover Hathor Exploration we will refrain from commenting on what a fair value for the company should be. However we would like to highlight that at an enterprise value per in-situ pound of U3O8 (EV/Lb) of $7.75/lb (market capitalization per pound of $9.01/lb), Camecos bid for Hathor is significantly below the EV/Lb values that were north of $12/lb we observed last year and notably below the $9.50/lb takeover valuation for Mantra Resources by ARMZ/Uranium One (UUU-TSX). In a world where grade is king, Mantras global U3O8 grade of 0.042% is significantly less than the 8.628% at Hathor, yet the offer for the latter is at a discount to the takeover value for the former. Not to mention the fact that Hathors Roughrider zone is in an established uranium mining jurisdiction with significant infrastructure already in place.
Uranium Update
September 1, 2011
2 of 6
Uranium Update
September 1, 2011
predecessor, the former minister of finance favours the 'independence and empowerment' of a new nuclear safety regulator. Unlike outgoing prime minister Naoto Kan, whom envisioned a future Japan that did not use nuclear energy, Noda prefers a new independent institution reporting directly to the cabinet office, with the authority to instigate criminal investigation of any wrongdoing it may find. We view this as a positive development for the nuclear industry as Japan new prime minister will work towards improving nuclear regulation as opposed to the removal of nuclear power from Japan altogether.
Exhibit 3. Yoshihiko Noda receives applause from his party and leadership rivals after the announcement of his victory
IF CASH IS KING
Uranium equities trading at the lowest multiples relative to their most recently reported balance sheet cash positions are the following:
Exhibit 4. Top 10 Uranium Companies - Price to Balance Sheet Cash
August 31, 2011 Company Name Stage All figures in $CAD Stock Price $0.29 $0.25 $0.19 $0.03 $0.08 $0.32 $0.12 $0.15 $0.20 $0.15 Market Cap (MM) 15.01 14.17 20.02 9.95 5.56 32.86 23.25 12.67 68.23 15.50 Enterprise Value (MM) -5.23 1.42 4.49 2.69 1.95 12.63 9.04 5.04 30.97 17.27 Price/Cash 0.7x 1.1x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.6x 1.6x 1.7x 1.8x 2.3x Cash (MM) 20.24 12.75 15.53 7.26 3.61 20.23 14.21 7.63 37.26 6.86 Shares O/S 51.75 56.68 105.38 331.71 69.50 102.68 193.73 84.44 341.17 103.30
Continental Precious Minerals, Inc. (TSX:CZQ) Exploration Tigris Uranium Corp. (TSXV:TU) Exploration Macusani Yellowcake, Inc. (TSXV:YEL) Exploration Australian American Mining Corporation Limited (ASX:AIW) Pre-Feasibility Energia Minerals Limited (ASX:EMX) Exploration U308 Corp. (TSXV:UWE) Exploration Tournigan Energy Ltd. (TSXV:TVC) Pre-Feasibility Uranium North Resources Corp. (TSXV:UNR) Exploration Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) Development Powertech Uranium Corp. (TSX:PWE) Pre-Feasibility
3 of 6
Uranium Update
September 1, 2011
Global # of 43-101/JORC Stage Resource Constituents EV/Lb Avg EV/Lb Avg Producer 7 $7.20 $8.46 Developer 4 $3.83 $3.55 Feasibility 7 $0.66 $0.61 Pre-Feasibility 10 $1.38 $1.19 Exploration 32 $1.72 $1.45 60 $1.90 $2.03
*Results higher than three standard deviations are removed from the calculation of averages Source: Versant Partners
4 of 6
Uranium Update
September 1, 2011
CCO TSX Cameco Corp. (TSX:CCO) Production DML TSX Denison Mines Corp. (TSX:DML) Production ERA ASX Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) Production PDN TSX Paladin Energy, Ltd. (TSX:PDN) Production UEC AMEX Uranium Energy Corp. (AMEX:UEC) Production UUU TSX Uranium One Inc. (TSX:UUU) Production WU TSXV White Canyon Uranium Ltd. (TSXV:WU) Production AGS ASX Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) Development EFR TSX Energy Fuels Inc. (TSX:EFR) Development URZ amex Uranerz Energy Corp. (AMEX:URZ) Development URE TSX UR-Energy Inc. (TSX:URE) Development ACB ASX A-Cap Resources Ltd. (ASX:ACB) Feasibility BAN TSX Bannerman Resources Limited (TSX:BAN) Feasibility BKY ASX Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) Feasibility KRI TSX Khan Resources Inc. (TSX:KRI) Feasibility MGA TSX Mega Uranium Ltd. (TSX:MGA) Feasibility STM TSX Strathmore Minerals Corp. (TSX:STM) Feasibility TUE TSXV Titan Uranium Inc. (TSXV:TUE) Feasibility AIW ASX Australian American Mining Corporation Limited (ASX:AIW) Pre-Feasibility BYU TSXV Bayswater Uranium Corp. (TSXV:BYU) Pre-Feasibility FSY TSX Forsys Metals Corp. (TSX:FSY) Pre-Feasibility LAM TSX Laramide Resources Ltd. (TSX:LAM) Pre-Feasibility PEN ASX Peninsula Energy Limited (ASX:PEN) Pre-Feasibility PWE TSX Powertech Uranium Corp. (TSX:PWE) Pre-Feasibility RSC TSX Strateco Resources Inc. (TSX:RSC) Pre-Feasibility TOE ASX Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) Pre-Feasibility TVC TSXV Tournigan Energy Ltd. (TSXV:TVC) Pre-Feasibility UNX ASX Uranex NL (ASX:UNX) Pre-Feasibility ABE TSXV Abitex Resources Inc. (TSXV:ABE) Exploration AEE ASX Aura Energy Limited (ASX:AEE) Exploration CZQ TSX Continental Precious Minerals, Inc. (TSX:CZQ) Exploration CXZ AMEX Crosshair Exploration & Mining Corp. (AMEX:CXZ) Exploration CUE TSXV Cue Resources Ltd (TSXV:CUE) Exploration DYL ASX Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) Exploration EMX ASX Energia Minerals Limited (ASX:EMX) Exploration EME ASX Energy Metals Limited (ASX:EME) Exploration EXT ASX Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) Exploration FIS TSXV Fission Energy Corp. (TSXV:FIS) Exploration FTE ASX Forte Energy NL (ASX:FTE) Exploration HAT TSX Hathor Exploration Ltd. (TSX:HAT) Exploration JNN TSXV JNR Resources Inc. (TSXV:JNN) Exploration KIV TSXV Kivalliq Energy Corp. (TSXV:KIV) Exploration YEL TSXV Macusani Yellowcake, Inc. (TSXV:YEL) Exploration MEY ASX Marenica Energy Ltd (ASX:MEY) Exploration MAW TSX Mawson Resources Ltd. (TSX:MAW) Exploration GEM TSXV Pele Mountain Resources Inc. (TSXV:GEM) Exploration PIT TSXV Pitchblack Resources Ltd. (TSXV:PIT) Exploration PXP TSXV Pitchstone Exploration Ltd. (TSXV:PXP) Exploration RGT TSX Rockgate Capital Corp. (TSX:RGT) Exploration SMM ASX Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) Exploration TU TSXV Tigris Uranium Corp. (TSXV:TU) Exploration UWE TSXV U308 Corp. (TSXV:UWE) Exploration UEX TSX UEX Corp. (TSX:UEX) Exploration ULU TSXV Ultra Uranium Corp. (TSXV:ULU) Exploration URC TSXV Uracan Resources, Ltd. (TSXV:URC) Exploration UNR TSXV Uranium North Resources Corp. (TSXV:UNR) Exploration URRE NASDAQ Uranium Resources, Inc. (NasdaqCM:URRE) Exploration USA ASX Uraniumsa Limited (ASX:USA) Exploration VEM TSX Vena Resources Inc. (TSX:VEM) Exploration VAE TSXV Virginia Energy Resources Inc. (TSXV:VAE) Exploration
Total 1,048.64 333.33 663.59 522.74 42.27 209.14 1.96 17.50 17.32 19.06 27.43 157.80 170.08 78.05 38.69 39.32 106.87 31.05 12.31 45.35 86.70 65.03 41.00 23.91 29.03 30.61 61.15 29.74 6.59 638.00 1,067.71 19.00 9.50 49.89 7.46 16.98 513.21 24.89 11.60 57.94 0.93 14.15 27.34 68.00 125.29 46.63 29.00 4.10 27.75 62.14 32.08 55.24 88.25 5.49 43.95 9.71 109.15 22.90 16.90 31.96
5 of 6
Uranium Update
September 1, 2011
Analyst certification
The research analyst whose name appears on this report hereby certifies that the opinions and recommendations expressed herein accurately reflect his personal views about the securities, issuers or industries discussed herein.
Definitions of recommendations
BUY: The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals and we expect it to appreciate significantly from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months.
BUY (Speculative): The stock is attractively priced relative to the companys fundamentals, however investment in the security carries a higher degree of risk. NEUTRAL: The stock is fairly valued, lacks a near term catalyst, or its execution risk is such that we expect it to trade within a narrow range of the current price in the next 6 to 12 months. The longer term fundamental value of the company may be materially higher, but certain milestones/catalysts have yet to be fully realized. SELL: The stock is overpriced relative to the companys fundamentals, and we expect it to decline from the current price over the next 6 to 12 months. TENDER: We believe the offer price by the acquirer is fair and thus recommend investors tender their shares to the offer. UNDER REVIEW: We are temporarily placing our recommendation under review until further information is disclosed.
Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Customers' accounts are protected by the Canadian Investor Protection Fund within specified limits. A brochure describing the nature and limits of coverage is available upon request.
6 of 6