2011 March Neg Briefs

Spanish River DN Negative Briefs
Contents
Training ............................................................................................................................................5 Iran camps details .....................................................................................................................5 Iran has trained 4500 hezbollah ................................................................................................5 Iran has trained 950 Hamas ......................................................................................................6 Iran supervises training camps in other nations ........................................................................6 Iranian Camp Numbers.............................................................................................................7 Most Hezbollah trained in Iran and Iranian trained are preferred ...........................................7 No training = 50% chance of failure ..........................................................................................8 Recruitment ......................................................................................................................................9 Iran actively recruits .................................................................................................................9 Iran recruited suiciders to attack U.S. in Iraq ......................................................................... 10 Helps AQ ........................................................................................................................................ 11 AQ has long history of working with Iran ............................................................................... 11 AQ in contact with hez etc. ...................................................................................................... 11 Iran agreement with AQ.......................................................................................................... 12 Iran helps AQ .......................................................................................................................... 13 AQ has long history of working with Iran ............................................................................... 14 Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort ....................................................................................................... 15 Iran hurts Iraq diplomatically ................................................................................................. 15 Iran hurts efforts in Afghanistan ............................................................................................. 15 Iran responsible for 18% of combat deaths ............................................................................. 16 Iranian bombs responsible for 1/3rd of all combat deaths ....................................................... 16 IRAN SPONSOR TERRORISM/ HELP TALIBAN.............................................................................. 17 Iran arm, finance, train and equip Taliban insurgents. ............................................................... 17 Venezuela Missiles .......................................................................................................................... 18 Iran is helping Venezuela with military expertise .................................................................... 18 Iran is putting missiles in Venezuela ........................................................................................ 18 Many cities can be reached from Venezuela ............................................................................ 19 Propaganda .................................................................................................................................... 20

Iran pays for Anti-american propaganda ................................................................................ 20 Iran propagandas against US .................................................................................................. 21 Iran has intent for EMP .......................................................................................................... 22 70% of US vulnerable to EMP threat ...................................................................................... 23 EMP ............................................................................................................................................... 23 EMP definition ........................................................................................................................ 23 EMP military impacts ............................................................................................................. 24 EMP undetectable ................................................................................................................... 24 EMP would kill all but 30 million Americans .......................................................................... 25 EMP would set back US to 1800's ............................................................................................ 25 EMPs don't need IBCM and can be anonymous ...................................................................... 26 IRAN WEAPONS LEADS TO PROLIFERATION/ ARMS RACE .................................................................. 27 IRAN WEAPONS LEADS TO PROLIFERATION/ ARMS RACE .......................................................... 27 Cascade to Middle East ........................................................................................................... 27 Middle East prolif results in an arms race, war and nuclear shootouts ................................... 27 Even a conventional war in the Middle East would go nuclear ................................................... 27 Kills the NPT and spreads regionally. ......................................................................................... 28 HIGH OIL PRICES THREAT ......................................................................................................... 29 HIGH OIL PRICES THREAT ................................................................................................. 29 Importance of Strait ................................................................................................................. 29 $200 a barrel ............................................................................................................................ 29 Relive October 2008 ................................................................................................................. 30 Dollar Supremacy............................................................................................................................. 31 Dollar Supremacy ..................................................................................................................... 31 IMPACT BESIDES HEGEMONIC= harm economic, political, and military ...................................... 31 Global Alternative to U.S. Dollar ............................................................................................... 31 Devastates Economy ................................................................................................................ 32 IRAN BOURSE EXTREMELY LIKELY ..................................................................................................... 33 NK Succession Crisis ...................................................................................................................... 34 AT NK predicted to collaspe.................................................................................................... 34 If KJI dies early, succession chaos ........................................................................................... 34 NK brother fight over succession a possibility ......................................................................... 35 2

NK's Chang a threat to succession ........................................................................................... 35 AT NK predicted to collaspe.................................................................................................... 36 If KJI dies early, succession chaos ........................................................................................... 36 Link: Succession Chaos in NK: Chang will take over if KJI dies prematurely ........................ 37 Lots of NK coup plots .............................................................................................................. 38 NK brother fight over succession a possibility ......................................................................... 39 NK's Chang a threat to succession ........................................................................................... 39 NK's military sucks......................................................................................................................... 40 NK's military sucks ................................................................................................................. 40 NK convential army weak ......................................................................................................... 40 Food Aid...................................................................................................................................... 41 NK Food Aid will lead to catlyst for Nuke Talks ................................................. 41 NK is going to fail: they're starving their military to please the public .. 41 AT NK drug trafficking .................................................................................................................. 42 AT MAD...war inevitable ................................................................................................................ 43 AT: DETERRENCE STOP IRAN NUKES + MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION ............. 43 AT NK will invade: soldiers are starving! ....................................................................................... 44 AT NK will invade: soldiers are starving! ............................................................................... 44 AT: N.K/ S.K WAR ................................................................................................................. 45 AT: N.K and S.K war .............................................................................................................. 46 AT North Korea Doesn't Care about its people neither does Iran ................................................... 47 AT Nuclear Terrorists (it's against their religion) ................................................................... 48 AT Nuclear Terrorists (it's against their religion) ................................................................... 48 AT Nuclear Threat .................................................................................................................. 48 No evidence NK is selling to terrorist ................................................................................ 49 AT: N.K will sell nukes ......................................................................................................... 49 A/t Nuclear Proliferation .......................................................................................................... 49 AT: IRAN WEAPONS NOT DEVELOPED YET ................................................................... 50 AT: IRAN HAS NO NUKES ................................................................................................... 50 North Korea nuke facilities arent operational/ will work with U.S like India ................ 50 North Korea nukes arent strong ........................................................................................ 50

A/T north korean nucs. - US government considers their tests failures ....................................... 51 Sanctions effective on North Korea will stop nuke program or econ collapse ............................ 51 AT NK Biowarfare ......................................................................................................................... 53 AT NK Bio .............................................................................................................................. 53 AT NK Bio: they don't have it yet............................................................................................ 53 AT NK biowarfare: likely to backfire ...................................................................................... 54 A/t Biological weapons proliferation ......................................................................................... 54 A/t weapons proliferation ........................................................................................................ 54 AT NK missiles ............................................................................................................................... 55 AT NK missiles ........................................................................................................................ 55 AT NK supplies Iran ............................................................................................................... 55 Iran finances and helps propagate NK missile technology ....................................................... 56 NK missiles inaccurate ............................................................................................................ 56 A/t weapons proliferation ........................................................................................................ 56 AT Chem Weapons ......................................................................................................................... 57 AT EMPS ....................................................................................................................................... 58 AT EMP: able to easily defend ................................................................................................ 58 AT EMPs................................................................................................................................. 58 DIPLOMACY/Sanctions SOLVES ............................................................................................... 59 AT: DIPLOMACY SOLVES ................................................................................................... 59 AT: Sanctions ....................................................................................................................... 59 cause Proliferation encourages self-sufficiency........................................................... 59 Irans becoming self-sufficient. Sanctions will not work ................................................ 60 AT: NORTH KOREA HELPING THE TALIBAN .......................................................................... 61 AT: NORTH KOREA HELPING THE TALIBAN ................................................................... 61 IF DID TRULY GET THE WEAPONS FROM N.K- they arent using them anyways....... 61

Training Iran camps details
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: Osama Hamdan, Hamass representative to Iran at the time, met Salamah in Tehran, after which Salamah underwent three months of military training at the hands of Iranian trainers. With the help of a translator (Salamah did not speak Farsi and his trainers did not speak Arabic well), Salamah trained to use explosives, automatic weapons, hand grenades, shoulder-fired missiles, ambush techniques, how to deactivate land mines and extract their explosive material, and how to build trigger mechanisms for bombs. By his own statement, Salamah received all his military training in Iran.26 Iran also runs terrorist training camps of its own in Lebanon, aside from the Iranianfunded
Training Iran has trained 4500 hezbollah

Source: The Independent. Hizbollah turns to Iran for new weapons to wage war on Israel, N.p., 2008. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/hizbollah-turnsto-iran-for-new-weapons-to-wage-war-on-israel-805763.html>. Quote: At least 4,500 Hezbollah operatives have received intensive training from Iran.

Training Iran has trained 950 Hamas
Source: The Independent. Hizbollah turns to Iran for new weapons to wage war on Israel, N.p., 2008. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/hizbollah-turnsto-iran-for-new-weapons-to-wage-war-on-israel-805763.html>. Quote: Senior Hamas operative figure tells London Sunday Times Gaza Strip correspondent about Iranian and Syria military aid, detailing the training received by hundreds of Hamas terrorist operatives and describing the transmission to Hamas of Iranian technical know-how for the manufacture of rockets and IED, The Intelligence and Terrorist Information Center, Mar. 17, 2008, The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has trained approximately 950 Hamas terrorists in rocket and bomb construction, tactical warfare, weapons operation and sniper tactics.
Training Iran supervises training camps in other nations

Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: On top of funding terrorist groups targeting Israel and the peace process, Iranian training camps run by Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command (PFLP-GC) dot the Syrian and Lebanese landscapes, where Hezbollah and Iranian trainers have schooled a motley crew of Palestinian, Kurdish, Armenian, and other recruits in a variety of terrorist and intelligence tactics. For example, several of the terrorists who carried out the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing were recruited in Syria and trained in Hezbollah camps in Lebanon and Iran.23

Training Iranian Camp Numbers
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: The IRGC training program, which reportedly costs Iran $50 million annually, also trains Lebanese and Palestinian terrorists to carry out underwater suicide operations.28 While training terrorists in the Bekaa Valley, the IRGC and MOIS simultaneously run several terrorist camps in Iran.29 As of August 2002, more than seventy foreign recruitsmostly Arabswere reportedly undergoing vigorous training under the command of the IRGCs Qods Force in two camps.30 At least fifty were being trained at the Imam Ali Garrison in Tehran while another twenty-two were being trained at the Bahonar Garrison, a Qods Force base located north of Tehran. Trainees were instructed to hide their connection to Iran and were warned by a Qods commander that subsequent to September 11, our activities have become more sensitive.31
Training Most Hezbollah trained in Iran and Iranian trained are preferred
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: According to expert opinions included in the Argentinean court document, it is well known that Hezbollah operatives often receive training in Iran.74 In addition, Hezbollah prefers outside operatives to local contacts when running its major operations in other countries. These operatives generally are more trustworthy and better trained.75 The terrorists that conducted the AMIA bombing would have had greater difficulty operating without the operational support of Iran, which reportedly included the bribing of then Argentinean President Carlos Menem with a payment of $10 million dollars to keep Irans involvement quiet.76
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Training No training = 50% chance of failure
Source: Harrow, Martin Of the Journal of Global Change and Governance. Inside a Wave of Terrorism: The Dynamic Relation. N.p., 2008. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:rdnFkDOuyMJ:andromeda.rutgers.edu/~gdga/JGCG/archive/Summer08/HARROW.pdf+filetype:pdf+%2 2effect%22+%22of+training%22+%22terrorism%22&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESg2 SjxlAxTBdGy5kIocJXGfldV8LTAzr7m1eTL8mQ33XXLQ3hcvmATFnN3yEd1bCgMWo8hHo7DEF6FDvMERtey3dsTVZ0EZrmy_A8nMejK1zPQH8WMsvRKOBgzgl7v2U3GSeN&sig=AHIEtbQXBf8CxJeQCcIlr32XVpWH25lb3A& pli=1>. Quote: It does, however, appear that at least one in two terrorist attacks fail fully or partially because of technical malfunctions or bad execution. Therefore, one can make a case that the materiel side is not irrelevant.

Recruitment Iran actively recruits
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: Iran actively recruits Palestinians for terrorist training in its camps as well. Israeli authorities had arrested two Palestinians, Shadi Jaber and Jihad Ibrahim Albasha, upon their return from Iran. According to the information they provided, the Iranian Committee for Aiding Wounded Victims of the Intifada had been working with Palestinians to find potential terrorist recruits among those wounded in what was then already 17 months of violence. Iran arranged for free travel, medical treatment and terrorist training for Palestinians who then returned to the Palestinian territories to establish terrorist cells. Among those involved in the recruitment drive, according to Albasha, were Iranian Ambassador to Jordan Nosratollah Tajik, PA Minister of Detainees and Freed Detainees Affairs Hisham Abdel al Razek, and senior Hezbollah operative Najafi Abu Mahadi. Additionally, Israeli authorities informed foreign diplomats in Israel in February 2002 that Iran had been transferring money to terrorists in the West Bank and Gaza for the purchase of weapons, and that terrorists affiliated with PA Chairman Yasser Arafats own Fatah Tanzim militia had traveled to Iran for training.

Recruitment Iran recruited suiciders to attack U.S. in Iraq
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: As recently as December 2004, a group calling themselves The Committee of the Commemoration of Martyrs of the Global Islamic Campaign, which is affiliated with the IRGC, has registered more than 25,000 martyrdom seeking volunteers to partake in the insurgency facing U.S.-led forces in Iraq.120 The head of public relations for the group, Mohammad Ali Samadi, stated that their actions were in accordance with a message from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Furthermore, on December 2, 2004, the group used the commemoration of a monument to the 1983 Hezbollah attack that killed 241 U.S. servicemen as a recruiting drive for suicide bombers.121
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Helps AQ AQ has long history of working with Iran
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: None of this is new. In the period leading up to the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings, ten percent of Osama Bin Ladens satellite phone calls were made to Iran. From the testimony of Ali Mohammed and other captured al-Qaeda operatives, meetings were known to be periodically set up by Iran and al-Qaeda.
Helps AQ AQ in contact with hez etc.

Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: Indeed, in a January 25, 2001, memo recently declassified and now made available to the public by the National Archives, Clarke noted that Al-Qida has recently [January 2001] increased its contacts with the Palestinian rejectionist groups, including Hizbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.98 Significantly, each of these is sponsored by Iran.
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Helps AQ Iran agreement with AQ
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Hezbollah: Financing Terror Through Criminal Enterprise. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.investigativeproject.org/documents/testimony/313.pdf>. Quote: that Iran and Hezbollah provided assistance to al-Qaeda on several occasions. For example, alQaeda operatives were allowed to travel through Iran with great ease. Entry stamps were not put in Saudi operatives' passports at the border, though at least eight of the September 11 hijackers transited the country between October 2000 and February 2001. The report also noted a "persistence of contacts between Iranian security officials and senior al-Qaeda figures" and drew attention to an informal agreement by which Iran would support al-Qaeda training with the understanding that such training would be used "for actions carried out primarily against Israel and the United States. Indeed, al-Qaeda operatives were trained in explosives, security, and intelligence on at least two occasions, with one group trained in Iran around 1992, and a second trained by Hezbollah in Lebanon's Beka'a Valley in the fall of 1993.10
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Helps AQ Iran helps AQ
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: Several terrorist threats have been thwarted because of information found in safe houses which are known to have been in direct contact with al-Qaeda personnel in Iran. Saif al- Adel, Saad Bin Laden and others were in Iran and therefore tied, in some way or another, to the bombings in Riyadh. There were apparently al-Qaeda plots to assassinate members of the Saudi royal family, at least two plots targeting Saudi ministries, and now it has been discovered in the safe houses in Saudi Arabia that they were using the country as a base to plot many more attacks. Indeed, already in 2002 reports emerged that Iran was providing safe haven to senior al-Qaeda fugitives who head the group's military committee, as well as to dozens of other al-Qaeda personnel.95 An Arab intelligence officer was quoted as saying that some al-Qaeda operatives were instructed to leave Iran, but were told that "they may be called on at some point to assist Iran."96
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Helps AQ AQ has long history of working with Iran
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: None of this is new. In the period leading up to the 1998 East Africa embassy bombings, ten percent of Osama Bin Ladens satellite phone calls were made to Iran. From the testimony of Ali Mohammed and other captured al-Qaeda operatives, meetings were known to be periodically set up by Iran and al-Qaeda.
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Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort Iran hurts Iraq diplomatically
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: **Even King Abdullah II of Jordan has accused Iran of meddling in Iraqi affairs. According to the King, more than 1 million Iranians crossed the Iraq-Iran border to vote in the recent Iraqi election. He added, some of these people were trained by Irans Revolutionary Guards and are members of militias that could conduct post-election attacks.122 The expressed concern that an Iraqi Islamic republic could further destabilize the Gulf region saying, "If pro-Iran parties or politicians dominate the new Iraqi government a new "crescent" of dominant Shiite movements or governments stretching from Iran into Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could emerge, alter the traditional balance of power between the two main Islamic sects and pose new challenges to U.S. interests and allies.123 This would functionally propel the possibility of a Shiite-Sunni conflict even more, as you're taking it out of the borders of Iraq, he said.124
Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort Iran hurts efforts in Afghanistan

Source: Fox News. Iran Trains Taliban to Use Roadside Bombs. N.p., 2010. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.foxnews.com/world/2010/03/21/iran-trains-taliban-use-roadside-bombs/>. Quote: Taliban commanders have revealed that hundreds of insurgents have been trained in Iran to kill NATO forces in Afghanistan. The commanders said they had learned to mount complex ambushes and lay improvised explosive devices (IEDs). According to the commanders, Iranian officials paid them to attend three-month courses during the winter.
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Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort Iran responsible for 18% of combat deaths
Source: New York Times. "Behind U.S. Pressure on Iran, Long-Held Worry Over a Deadly Device in Iraq," . N.p., 2007. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. Quote: Iranian-supplied explosively formed penetrators (EFP's) are a serious concern for U.S. soldiers; the weapons were responsible for 18 percent of U.S. combat deaths in the last quarter of 2006, and 30 percent in -dominated areas.[25]
Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort Iranian bombs responsible for 1/3rd of all combat deaths
Source: New York Times. U.S. Says Iran-Supplied Bomb Kills More Troops . N.p., 2008. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/world/middleeast/08military.html?_r=1>. Quote: BAGHDAD, Aug. 7 Attacks on American-led forces using a lethal type of roadside bomb said to be supplied by Iran reached a new high in July, according to the American military. The devices, known as explosively formed penetrators, were used to carry out 99 attacks last month and accounted for a third of the combat deaths suffered by the American-led forces, according to American military officials.
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IRAN SPONSOR TERRORISM/ HELP TALIBAN
MSNBC, September 5 2010 Iran is paying Taliban fighters $1,000 for each U.S. soldier they kill in Afghanistan, according to a report in a British newspaper.
Iran is engaged in an extensive covert campaign to arm, finance, train and equip Taliban insurgents.
The Guardian Iran is also ready to host Taliban leaders and their men, to offer treatment if they are injured in the fighting and act as a conduit for foreign insurgents anxious to join the fray.
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Venezuela Missiles Iran is helping Venezuela with military expertise
Source: Hudson Institute. Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S. N.p., 2010. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezuela>. Quote: In return, the agreement states that Venezuela can use these facilities for "national needs" radically increasing the threat to neighbors like Colombia. The German daily claims that according to the agreement, Iranian Shahab 3 (range 1300-1500 km), Scud-B (285-330 km) and Scud-C (300, 500 and 700 km) will be deployed in the proposed base. It says that Iran also pledged to help Venezuela in rocket technology expertise, including intensive training of officers
Venezuela Missiles Iran is putting missiles in Venezuela

Source: Hudson Institute. Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S. N.p., 2010. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezuela>. Quote: Iran is planning to place medium-range missiles on Venezuelan soil, based on western information sources[1], according to an article in the German daily, Die Welt, of November 25, 2010. According to the article, an agreement between the two countries was signed during the last visit o Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Tehran on October19, 2010. The previously undisclosed contract provides for the establishment of a jointly operated military base in Venezuela, and the joint development of ground-to-ground missiles. At a moment when NATO members found an agreement, in the recent Lisbon summit (19-20 November 2010), to develop a Missile Defence capability to protect NATO's populations and territories in Europe against ballistic missile attacks from the East (namely, Iran), Iran's counter-move consists in establishing a strategic base in the South American continent - in the United States's soft underbelly.
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Venezuela Missiles Many cities can be reached from Venezuela
Source: Hudson Institute. Iran Placing Medium-Range Missiles in Venezuela; Can Reach the U.S. N.p., 2010. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.hudson-ny.org/1714/iran-missiles-in-venezuela>. Quote: If a missile base can be opened in Venezuela, many US cities will be able to be reached from there even with short-medium range missiles.
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Propaganda Iran pays for Anti-american propaganda
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: Al-Manar is the official television mouthpiece of Hezbollah, and is used by Hezbollah and Iran to radicalize Muslim youth and glorify violence, especially in the contexts of Israel and Iraq. Called the station of resistance it serves as Hezbollahs tool to reach the entire Arab Muslim world to disseminate propaganda and promote terrorist activity. Al-Manar glorifies suicide bombings, calls for attacks targeting Israel, coalition forces in Iraq, and the United States, and seeks to create a radicalized constituency that is as likely to seek out terrorist groups themselves to join their ranks as they are to be sought after and recruited by these groups. At the time of alManars founding in 1991, the station reportedly received seed money from Iran and had a running budget of $1 million.99 By 2002 its annual budget had grown to approximately $15 million.100 Middle East analysts and journalists maintain that most of this funding comes from Iran.101 The United States has been a primary target of al-Manar programming and is depicted as a global oppressor. In a speech broadcast on al-Manar, Hezbollah Secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah stated, "Our enmity to the Great Satan is complete and unlimited. . . . Our echoing slogan will remain: Death to America!" One video features an altered image of the Statue of Liberty. The statue's head has been transformed into a skull with hollow eyes, her gown dripping in blood. Instead of a torch, she holds a sharp knife. After asserting that the United States "has pried into the affairs of most countries in the world," the video ends with the slogan, "America owes blood to all of humanity." Al-Manar often juxtaposes sacred Islamic text with images of "martyrdom" to incite its viewers to support and even carry out acts of terror. In one video, Qur'anic verses are sung in somber, quiet tones and scrolled across the screen while footage in the background shows U.S. and Israeli flags being burned, demonstrators waving a "Down with U.S.A." sign, a suicide bomber recording his valediction, victims and rescue personnel scrambling in the aftermath of a suicide bombing, and similar images.
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Propaganda Iran propagandas against US
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: According to U.S. officials, Iran offered the PA a substantial discount on the arms in return for being allowed to run a hospital in Gaza and other social-welfare organizations in the Palestinian territories. By these means, Iran hoped to gain a foothold of its own in the Palestinian territories, through which it could build grassroots support, propagate its anti-Israel message, collect intelligence on the activities of U.S. officials, and provide direct support to Hamas and PIJan established Iranian modus operandi.44 Outreach to the Palestinians in this fashion would follow efforts by Iran elsewhere to use humanitarian and diplomatic footholds as a cover for IRGC or MOIS operatives collecting intelligence and supporting local terrorist groups. In 1997, a Defense Intelligence Agency report detailed a similar Iranian initiative in Tajikistan; MOIS had been collecting information on the U.S. presence there and possibly engaging in terrorist targeting.45 In 1998, another such plan came to light in Kazakhstan, where three Iranians were arrested for espionage, possibly in support of a terrorist attack against U.S. interests.46
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Iran has intent for EMP
Source: Ayers, Cynthia Professor at the US Army War College. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as "Weapon of Choice". N.p., post 2006. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.omsp.psu.edu/sgs/postconference/Ayers_EMP%20threat%20brief_Sept%202010_ website.pdf>. Quote: Iran the worlds leading sponsor of international terrorism indicates EMP would enable Iran to defeat US Forces and destroy the Great Satan
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EMP 70% of US vulnerable to EMP threat
Source: Commission to Assess theThreat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. N.p., 2004. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf>. Quote: The sequence of E1, E2, and then E3 components of EMP is important because each can cause damage, and the later damage can be increased as a result of the earlier damage. In the example depicted in Figures 2 and 3, about 70% of the total electrical power load of the United States is within the region exposed to the EMP event.
EMP EMP definition

Source: Commission to Assess theThreat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. N.p., 2004. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf>. Quote: What is significant about an EMP attack is that one or a few high-altitude nuclear detonations can produce EMP effects that can potentially disrupt or damage electronic and electrical systems over much of the United States, virtually simultaneously, at a time determined by an adversary.
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EMP EMP military impacts
Source: Ayers, Cynthia Professor at the US Army War College. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as "Weapon of Choice". N.p., post 2006. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.omsp.psu.edu/sgs/postconference/Ayers_EMP%20threat%20brief_Sept%202010_ website.pdf>. Quote: An Iranian journal article "Electronics to Determine Fate of Future Wars," explains how an EMP attack on America's electronic infrastructure, caused by the detonation of a nuclear weapon high above the U.S., would bring the country to its knees: Today when you disable a country's military high command through disruption of communications, you will, in effect, disrupt all the affairs of that country. If the world's industrial countries fail to devise effective ways to defend themselves against dangerous electronic assaults then they will disintegrate within a few years. American soldiers would not be able to find food to eat nor would they be able to fire a single shot."
EMP EMP undetectable

Source: Commission to Assess theThreat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack. N.p., 2004. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.empcommission.org/docs/empc_exec_rpt.pdf>. Quote: Since such upset and damage is not encountered in other circumstances and particularly not remotely to the same scale, the normal experience of otherwise skilled system operators and others in positions of responsibility and authority will not have prepared them to identify what has happened to the system, what actions to take to minimize further adverse consequences, and what actions must be carried out to restore the impacted systems as swiftly and effectively as possible.
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EMP EMP would kill all but 30 million Americans
Source: Naegle, Timothy Of the Defense Intelligence Agency at The Pentagon. EMP attack. N.p., 2010. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.naegele.com/documents/EMPAttackOnly30MillionAmericansSurvive-NaegeleBlog.pdf>. Quote: Launched from a barge off the U.S. coast, an EMP attack consisting of one nuclear warhead attached to a single missile might shut down much of the country and kill all except 30 million Americans.[2] Such an attack has been described as a giant continental time machine that would move us back more than a century in technology to the late 1800sand effectively destroy our great nation.
EMP EMP would set back US to 1800's

Source: Naegle, Timothy Of the Defense Intelligence Agency at The Pentagon. EMP attack. N.p., 2010. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.naegele.com/documents/EMPAttackOnly30MillionAmericansSurvive-NaegeleBlog.pdf>. Quote: Launched from a barge off the U.S. coast, an EMP attack consisting of one nuclear warhead attached to a single missile might shut down much of the country and kill all except 30 million Americans.[2] Such an attack has been described as a giant continental time machine that would move us back more than a century in technology to the late 1800sand effectively destroy our great nation.
25

EMP EMPs don't need IBCM and can be anonymous
Source: Ayers, Cynthia Professor at the US Army War College. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as "Weapon of Choice". N.p., post 2006. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.omsp.psu.edu/sgs/postconference/Ayers_EMP%20threat%20brief_Sept%202010_ website.pdf>. Quote: "A nuclear missile concealed in the hold of a freighter would give Iran or terrorists the capability to perform an EMP attack against the United States homeland without developing an ICBM and with some prospect of remaining anonymous. . . . Iran's Shahab-3 medium range missile mentioned earlier is a mobile missile and small enough to be transported in the hold of a freighter. We cannot rule out that Iran, the world's leading sponsor of international terrorism might provide terrorists with the means to execute an EMP attack against the United States." (Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, Director of the Nuclear Strategy Forum, EMP Commission)
26

IRAN WEAPONS LEADS TO PROLIFERATION/ ARMS RACE
Cascade to Middle East
ARMS RACE Syracuse University, 2007 Another danger of Iran acquiring a nuclear arsenal is that many of its neighbors in the Middle East would feel compelled to follow suit. The fear that an Iranian nuclear arsenal will unleash a cascade of proliferation across the Middle East was heightened by the disclosure in November 2006 that six Arab states have recently begun to accelerate efforts to acquire nuclear technology. "Iran's nuclear capability ... will spur many powers in the region to develop a nuclear program." n91 Such a cascade of proliferation in the Middle East would likely lead to the worldwide collapse of the already tottering nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) regime. n92 In addition, the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East tinderbox, with its existing border disputes, religious fanaticism, ethnic hatreds, unstable governments, terrorist groups, and tendency for conflicts to spiral out of control, seems likely to result in nuclear war.
Middle East prolif results in an arms race, war and nuclear shootouts Rosen, 6 Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs and Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University (Stephen Peter. After Proliferation: What to do it more states go nuclear. Foreign Affairs. Sep. CIAO) But energetic arms races would still produce larger arsenals, making it harder to prevent the accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
Even a conventional war in the Middle East would go nuclear

Rosen, 6 Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National Security and Military Affairs and Director of the John M. Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University (Stephen Peter. After Proliferation: What to do it more states go nuclear. Foreign Affairs. Sep. CIAO) It gets worse. During the Cold War, most analysts considered it unlikely that nuclear weapons would be used during peacetime; they worried more about the possibility of a nuclear conflict somehow emerging out of a conventional war. That scenario would still be the most likely in a postproliferation future as well, but the frequency of conventional wars in the Middle East would make it a less comforting prospect. If a nuclear-armed ballistic missile were launched while conventional fighting involving nonnuclear-armed ballistic missiles was going on in the region, how confident would any government be that it could identify the party responsible? The difficulty would be greater still if an airplane or a cruise missile were used to deliver the nuclear weapon.
27

Kills the NPT and spreads regionally.
Ackerman 9 (Rep. Gary, DNY, , Federal News Service, HEARING OF THE HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE; SUBJECT: IRAN: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. POLICY;, 7-22, L/N) This is reality: Iran is marching swiftly towards either a bomb or a latent nuclear capability. This development is deeply destabilizing an already deeply unstable region. Successful proliferation by Iran will most likely destroy the NPT and the international norm against nuclear proliferation. If left unaddressed by the United States and the rest of the international community, as seems to be the case right now, Israel will have to either live under Iranian nuclear sword or act preemptively themselves. many options. It could also, in stages, order Hezbollah to launch rockets across the northern border. The attack could come in conjunction with a Hamas assault from the Gaza Strip.
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HIGH OIL PRICES THREAT CNN Iran, which sits on the world's second largest reserves of both oil and gas, is facing US sanctions over its civilian nuclear program. Iranian officials have dismissed US sanctions as inefficient, saying that they are finding Asian partners instead. Several Chinese and other Asian firms are negotiating or signing up to oil and gas deals. Iran sits atop the Persian Gulf, through which pass 20% of all the world's oil. Its missiles are also within easy striking distance of the giant oil fields of Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Together, the Middle East produces 25 million barrels of oil a day, or 30% of the world's total daily production of 86 million barrels. What's more, some Iranian officials have threatened to wield the country's strategic position like a weapon. "The likelihood of an attack is the highest it's ever been," said Christopher Ruppel, an energy analyst at Execution LLC, a broker and research firm for institutional investors like hedge and mutual funds, who puts the chances of an attack at 50%. "Right away prices would go above $200 a barrel."
Importance of Strait
WORLD TRIBUNE About 40 percent of the world's crude oil shipments passes through the two-mile wide channel of the strategic Straits of Hormuz. Iranian forces are deployed at the head of the channel. Oman and the United Arab Emirates are located on the other side. Teheran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz and use its missiles to strike tankers and GCC oil facilities, according to the new edition of GeostrategyDirect.com. Within weeks, the rest of the world would be starving for oil and the global economy could be in danger. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz will rise to about 60 percent of global oil exports by 2025.
$200 a barrel
Business and Media Institute, August 8 2010 It's the mother of all oil supply choke points, Kilduff said. There's just no two ways about it. Really, it's a pick your number. But I think $200 a barrel, given that we're $80 now, you get an easy double. And, then another 20 percent on top of that gets you to $200. It sounds, well it is horrific. It would be dislocative to the global economy.
29

Relive October 2008
Professor Juan Cole, University of Michigan, November 1 2010 I can think of a specific way in which even for Obama to whisper the words war and Iran in the same sentence would be very, very bad for the US economy. An oil price spike caused a lot of economic malaise in the US in the 1970s, and it could help push us into a double dip deep recession. Anyone who would like to relive through October 2008, raise your hand.
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Dollar Supremacy
ROBERT LOONEY is a professor of economics at the Naval Postgraduate School, What does pose a threat is Irans attempt to reshape the global economical system by converting it from a petrodollar system to a petro-euro system.2 SINCE THE UNITED STATES EMERGED AS THE DOMINANT GLOBAL SUPERPOWER AT the end of World War II, U.S. hegemony has rested on three unassailable but somewhat interconnected pillars: (one of them include VVVV) the relative strength of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency In this light, Irans decision to open a euro-denominated Iranian oil bourse (IOB) is seen by many as an aggressive attack on the weakest link in Americas global security system.5
IMPACT BESIDES HEGEMONIC= harm economic, political, and military

ROBERT LOONEY is a professor of economics at the Naval Postgraduate School, The tacit assumption underlying Irans pending attack on the dollar is that the dollars role in oil markets absolves the United States from the harsh economic laws governing activity in other countriesthat the role of the dollar is ultimately responsible for much of the economic, military, and political strength of the United States.
Global Alternative to U.S. Dollar

Ed Haas, Professor at Hastings College of the Law Called the Iran Oil Bourse, an exchange that only accepts the euro for oil sales would mean that the entire world could begin purchasing oil from any oil-producing nation with euros instead of dollars. The Iranian plan isnt limited to purchasing one oil-producing countrys oil with euros. Their plan will create a global alternative to the U.S. dollar. Come March 2006, the Iran Oil Bourse will further the momentum of OPEC to create an alternate currency for oil purchases worldwide. China, Russia, and the European Union North Korea or Iran are evaluating the Iranian plan to exchange oil for euros, and giving the plan serious consideration. If you are skeptical regarding the meaning of oil being purchased with euros versus dollars, and the devastating impact it will have on the economy of the United States, consider the historic move by the Federal Reserve to begin hiding information pertaining to the U.S. dollar money supply, starting in March 2006.
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Devastates Economy
Professor, Krassimir Petrov American University Whatever the strategic choice, from a purely economic point of view, should the Iranian Oil Bourse gain momentum, it will be eagerly embraced by major economic powers and will precipitate the demise of the dollar. The collapsing dollar will dramatically accelerate U.S. inflation and will pressure upward U.S. long-term interest rates. At this point, the Fed will find itself between Scylla and Charybdisbetween deflation and hyperinflationit will be forced fast either to take its classical medicine by deflating, whereby it raises interest rates, thus inducing a major economic depression, a collapse
in real estate, and an implosion in bond, stock, and derivative markets, with a total financial collapse, or alternatively, to take the Weimar way out by inflating, whereby it pegs the long-bond yield, raises the Helicopters and drowns the financial system in liquidity, bailing out numerous LTCMs and hyperinflating the economy. For the first time in history, in the twentieth century, America was able to tax the world indirectly, through inflation. It did not enforce the direct payment of taxes like all of its predecessor empires did, but distributed instead its own fiat currency, the U.S. Dollar, to other nations in exchange for goods with the intended consequence of inflating and devaluing those dollars and paying back later each dollar with less economic goodsthe difference capturing the U.S. imperial tax. Here is how this happened.
It will be based on a euro-oil-trading mechanism that naturally implies payment for oil in Euro. In economic terms, this represents a much greater threat to the hegemony of the dollar than Saddams, because it will allow anyone willing either to buy or to sell oil for Euro to transact on the exchange, thus circumventing the U.S. dollar altogether. If so, then it is likely that almost everyone will eagerly adopt this euro oil system:
The Europeans will not have to buy and hold dollars in order to secure their payment for oil, but would instead pay with their own currencies. The adoption of the euro for oil transactions will provide the European currency with a reserve status that will benefit the European at the expense of the Americans.
The Chinese and the Japanese will be especially eager to adopt the new exchange, because it will allow them to drastically lower their enormous dollar reserves and diversify with Euros, thus protecting themselves against the depreciation of the dollar. One portion of their dollars they will still want to hold onto; a second portion of their dollar holdings they[ll] may decide to dump outright; a third portion of their dollars they will decide
to use up for future payments without replenishing those dollar holdings, but building up instead their euro reserves.
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IRAN BOURSE EXTREMELY LIKELY
Iran Oil and Gas Industry, February 16 2011 Mohammad Reza Shahidi Tabar- chairman of Iran BourseKala Co.- disclosed that Iran oil bourse will be officially opened on 31st of March 2011 on Kish Island, reported the ISNA. According to Shahidi Tabar this bourse- which is to be commissioned upon the presidents decree and the executive order of the minister of Economy and Finance- will be offering goods such as oil products and crude oil. TWO IMPACTS: 1. Can destroy U.S economy through stop supplies; 2. Shows they can actually influence U.S policies
33

NK Succession Crisis AT NK predicted to collaspe
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Clinton Administration views of Kim were a factor in their predictions of a North Korean regime collapse in 1994, 1995, and 1996, including a prediction of collapse within three years by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and within five years by a team of U.S. government and outside experts assembled by the CIA.1 Similar views figured into the predictions of Bush Administration officials in the early days of the six party talks that North Korea would selfdestruct through extreme, provocative actions in the talks and would move the other governments in the negotiations into the U.S. camp, creating a five vs. one situation.
NK Succession Crisis If KJI dies early, succession chaos

Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: If the reports of Kim Jong-ils ill health are partially or totally true, there appears to be a strong possibility that he will die much sooner than his father. Death before he reaches 75 or even 70 appears to be a real possibility. If that occurs, a succession process for one his sons likely will not be complete. Neither son will have reached an age or attained the training and advanced position to insure his acceptability as North Koreas ruler to the major centers of political power in North Korea: the military, the communist party leadership, and senior bureaucrats.
34

NK Succession Crisis NK brother fight over succession a possibility
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Thus, more attention has centered on 22-year old Kim Jong-un, who is reported to have a personality more pleasing to his father. It is uncertain whether this situation has the making of a rivalry for power in coming years, but that seems to be a possibility.
NK Succession Crisis NK's Chang a threat to succession

Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Committee, an analysis of South Koreas National Intelligence Service concluded that a factor in the purge of Chang was that he was viewed as an obstacle to the establishment of a succession system committed to one of Kim Jong-ils sons. The South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo quoted a source familiar with North Korea matters that Go Yeong-hui viewed Chang this way and worked to push him aside.15 She is gone, and he appears to be back.
35

NK Succession Crisis AT NK predicted to collaspe
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Clinton Administration views of Kim were a factor in their predictions of a North Korean regime collapse in 1994, 1995, and 1996, including a prediction of collapse within three years by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and within five years by a team of U.S. government and outside experts assembled by the CIA.1 Similar views figured into the predictions of Bush Administration officials in the early days of the six party talks that North Korea would selfdestruct through extreme, provocative actions in the talks and would move the other governments in the negotiations into the U.S. camp, creating a five vs. one situation.
NK Succession Crisis If KJI dies early, succession chaos

Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: If the reports of Kim Jong-ils ill health are partially or totally true, there appears to be a strong possibility that he will die much sooner than his father. Death before he reaches 75 or even 70 appears to be a real possibility. If that occurs, a succession process for one his sons likely will not be complete. Neither son will have reached an age or attained the training and advanced position to insure his acceptability as North Koreas ruler to the major centers of political power in North Korea: the military, the communist party leadership, and senior bureaucrats.
36

NK Succession Crisis Link: Succession Chaos in NK: Chang will take over if KJI dies prematurely
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: In this situation of an incomplete dynastic succession, several scenarios of alternative leadership could develop. One would be a regime headed by Chang Song-taek, Kim Jong-ils brother-inlaw. It could be designated as an interim regime, pending a completion of training for the son, whom Kim designated as his successor. However, Chang Song-taek might well look at himself as a long-term leader who would not step aside for one of Kims sons.
37

NK Succession Crisis Lots of NK coup plots
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: The second issue was the existence of unrest in military units in response to the deteriorating economic situation. Time Magazine reported on May 5, 1997, that the Central Intelligence Agency had received reports that a number of military commanders had been relieved of command and that some army units had been redeployed because their loyalty to Kim Jong-il was questioned.37 In his book, Great Illustrated Book of Kim Chong-il, Japanese journalist Osamu Eya described two and possibly three serious coup detat plots in 1991 and 1992 of North Korean army officers, who had received training in the Soviet Union. Each was uncovered; a large number of officers were arrested and executed. He reported that the coup plot of April 1992, dubbed the Frunze Incident after the Soviet Unions Frunze Academy, was led by General An Chong-ho, the deputy chief of staff. General An was among those executed, according to Eya. Eya also described a coup plot conceived by a group of officers of the Sixth Army Corps in 1995. The coup plotters planned to seize military and government facilities in the city of Chongjin, the city in the northeast where the Sixth Corps was stationed, broadcast news of their action to the rest of North Korea and the outside world, and march on Pyongyang.38 Other accounts of the Six Corps plot and the Frunze Incident have appeared.39
38

NK Succession Crisis NK brother fight over succession a possibility
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Thus, more attention has centered on 22-year old Kim Jong-un, who is reported to have a personality more pleasing to his father. It is uncertain whether this situation has the making of a rivalry for power in coming years, but that seems to be a possibility.
NK Succession Crisis NK's Chang a threat to succession

Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: Committee, an analysis of South Koreas National Intelligence Service concluded that a factor in the purge of Chang was that he was viewed as an obstacle to the establishment of a succession system committed to one of Kim Jong-ils sons. The South Korean newspaper, Chosun Ilbo quoted a source familiar with North Korea matters that Go Yeong-hui viewed Chang this way and worked to push him aside.15 She is gone, and he appears to be back.
39

NK's military sucks
Source: Nisch, Larry Of Georgetown University. Assessing Internal North Korea. N.p., 2007. Web. 2 Feb. 2011. <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.lp.hscl.ufl.edu/doi/10.1111/j.19765118.2007.tb00193.x/pdf>. Quote: The North Korean military faced two major problems as it went into the mid and late 1990s. One was the decline of its conventional force capabilities. The collapse of the Soviet Union made its weaponry increasingly old and obsolete. The 1999 defeat of the North Korean navy by South Koreas navy was a case of modern weaponry and technology prevailing over 1960s weapons and technology. Fuel shortages resulted in an ability to carry out big-unit army exercises on a regular basis after 1993. The regime gave the military priority in the distribution of depleted food supplies, but this did not prevent food shortages, reportedly even among units on the demilitarized zone facing South Korea. The 16 year old boys drafted into the North Korea army were the victims of years of malnutrition, forcing North Korea to reduce physical standards. By the late 1990s, North Koreas economic collapse had brought about major reductions in the output of North Koreas own defense industries. This decline of conventional capabilities has continued, worsening year after year.36 NK convential army weak US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT - February 2, 2010 http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony.pdf The KPAs capabilities are limited by an aging weapons inventory, low production of military combat systems, deteriorating physical condition of soldiers, reduced training, and increasing diversion of the military to infrastructure support. Inflexible leadership, corruption, low morale, obsolescent weapons, a weak logistical system, and problems with command and control also constrain the KPA capabilities and readiness.
40

NK Food Aid will lead to catlyst for Nuke Talks Source: Rueters. Q+A - Is the North Korea food crisis worsening? N.p., 14 Mar. 2011. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/03/14/idINIndia55558820110314?pageNumber=2>. Quote: Notably, Pyongyang has asked the United States to resume food aid, which was suspended in 2008 over a monitoring row. Washington says it will consider the request after reviewing the assessment of the food situation in the North. A resumption of U.S. aid to the North might act as a catalyst for renewed diplomacy amid a standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear programmes and attacks on the peninsula last year.
NK is going to fail: they're starving their military to please the public Source: Yonhap News. NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER. N.p., 2011. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/03/09/14/0401000000A EN20110309007800325F.HTML>. Quote: He also claimed that the North has eased its forceful collection of food from the civilian population to feed its soldiers because the regime fears such a move may anger people already enraged over the failed currency revaluation.
41

AT NK drug trafficking
Source: Congressional Research Service. North Korean Counterfeiting of U.S. Currency. N.p., 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33324.pdf>. Quote: However, according to a 2009 report by the State Department, drug trafficking by the DPRK appears to be down considerably with no instances of drug trafficking suggestive of statedirected trafficking for six years
42

AT MAD...war inevitable
Source: Ayers, Cynthia Professor at the US Army War College. Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) as "Weapon of Choice". N.p., post 2006. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.omsp.psu.edu/sgs/postconference/Ayers_EMP%20threat%20brief_Sept%202010_ website.pdf>. Quote: There are many who see war with the United States as inevitable and have stated so, either in open source writings, in journals and press, or face-to-face with our own elected leaders.
AT: DETERRENCE STOP IRAN NUKES + MUTUALLY ASSURED DESTRUCTION Scott D. Sagan, Professor, Political Science, Stanford University, 2009 Middle Eastern countries have not established any hotlines or special communication links with Iran and/or each other, which could have serious consequences in a nuclear crisis. In the Middle East, communication is not only a technological problem, but is also a political problem, as several states have refrained from establishing diplomatic links with a number of regional capitals. Middle Eastern powers would also have to establish early warning systems searching in all directions. Moreover, the requirements for an "all directions" second strike force are very complicated. In addition, the rather rudimentary nuclear forces in the region would be likely to be prone to accidents and mistakes. The newly acquired nuclear arsenals would lack the sophisticated technology of the great powers, which reduces such mishaps through devices for locking, fusing, remotely controlling, and releasing nuclear warheads from afar. Nuclear arms in the hands of several Middle East powers would actually increase the possibility of preemptive strikes and catalytic wars.
43

AT NK will invade: soldiers are starving!
Source: Yonhap News. NORTH KOREA NEWSLETTER. N.p., 2011. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2011/03/09/14/0401000000AEN201103090078003 25F.HTML>. Quote: SEOUL (Yonhap) -- Food shortages in North Korea are so dire now that soldiers -- considered the linchpin of the communist state -- are worse fed than ordinary residents, an activist group said on March 7, unveiling the footage of four defectors it recently interviewed in China. The man went on to speak in the footage of a rising number of cases of dystrophy among North Korean soldiers, saying their figures are so bony that they look like "scarecrows in uniform."
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AT: N.K/ S.K WAR October 10, 2010 S.K has military strength In contrast, North Korean soldiers suffer from malnutrition and rarely train due to a scarcity of fuel and ammo. Most North Korean soldiers could not attack because they are needed to defend the entire DMZ and coastal approaches (they remember the 1950 landing at Inchon) while entire divisions must remain throughout North Korea to fend off heliborne offensives, food riots, and probable coups. On the other hand, the entire 700,000 man South Korean active duty army can be devoted to the defense of Seoul. South Korea has twice the population of the North, thirty times its economic power, and spends three times more on its military each year. South Korean military equipment is first class whereas most of the North Korean military equipment is over 30 years old and much is inoperable due to a lack of maintenance. If war broke out, South Korea has a massive industrial capacity and $94 billion in foreign currency reserves to sustain a war, while North Korea has no industry and no money. As a result, South Korea is roughly five times more powerful than North Korea. The US military ignores this reality and retains old plans for the deployment of 450,000 GIs to help defend South Korea, even though the superior South Korean military can halt any North Korean offensive without help from a single American soldier.
45

AT: N.K and S.K war N.K terrible military strength Daniel Byman, Professor, Georgetown Unviersity and Jennifer Lind, Assistant Professor, Government, Dartmouth College, For example, North Korean military leaders are chosen for political loyalty rather than military competence; key units would be assigned to regime defense rather than to combat missions. Service and unit leaders would likely not communicate regularly, inhibiting coordination. Thus North Korea's forces are likely to perform poorly in a war.
46

AT North Korea Doesn't Care about its people neither does Iran
Source: Levitt, Matthew Of the Washington Institute of Near East Policy. Iranian State Sponsorship of Terror:. N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.iranwatch.org/government/US/Congress/Hearings/hirc-sub-021605/us-hircmiddleeastsub-levitt-prepared-021605.pdf>. Quote: In January 2004, Iran reportedly took advantage of the international humanitarian aid effort to assist earthquake victims in Iran to supply weapons to Hezbollah. Cargo planes reportedly flew to Iran from Syria filled with aid supplies, and returned full of weapons for Hezbollah.41
47

AT Nuclear Terrorists (it's against their religion)
Source: Frost, Robin Of Simon Fraser University. Would Terrorists Go Nuclear? N.p., 2005. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://ir.lib.sfu.ca/retrieve/2382/etd1975.pdf>. Quote: To Shia religious terrorists, killing an infidel has Allahs blessing, and is not considered by them to be unethical or immoral, let alone criminal. Nonetheless, there is one telling exception to their willingness to kill: accoding to schbley, A ShiI terrorists target would most likely be well-defined, limited in scope and dimension, and would not transcend a concentric target zone. Most Shia religious terrorists would not willingly use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. [emphasis added]107
AT Nuclear Threat
Source: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. Missile Defense,the Space Relationship,& the Twenty-First Century. N.p., 2009. Web. 5 Feb. 2011. <http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf>. Quote: As a result of the missile defense program of the George W. Bush (Bush-43) administration, the United States has based 20 interceptors capable of intercepting and destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles during midcourse of flight at Fort Greely in Alaska, together with another four at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. These are ground-based interceptors specifically designed to counter long-range missiles such as the North Korean Taepo Dong 2. The initial U.S. deployment program also provided for land-, sea-, and space-based sensors, including existing Defense Support Program early-warning satellites; an upgraded radar now located at Shemya, Alaska; and new sea-based X-band radar and other sensors now on Aegis cruisers and destroyers. Finally, the Bush-43 administration initiated the deployment of a sea-based defense capable of intercepting short and medium-range ballistic missiles and Japan joined with the United States to develop a sea-based capability to intercept long-range missiles.94
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No evidence NK is selling to terrorist Monterey Institute of International Studies - Jeffrey Lewis - December 14, 2010 http://www.cfr.org/proliferation/north-korea-iran-nuclear-cooperation/p23625 We don't know anything about that. I haven't seen any evidence that North Korea has assisted non-state actors. The good news about nuclear weapons is that even if we can imagine a non-state actor doing it, it's still quite demanding. AT: N.K will sell nukes We will stop them just like we stopped Pakistan, empirical evidence will work Cato Institute, 6-4-09 The U.S. already has dealt with a bigger proliferation problem -- Pakistan. Washington could make clear to Kim Jong-il and those who staff his regime that the sale of nuclear materials to non-state actors would result in their own death. That would make selling nukes to raise money a poor investment, risking certain destruction for uncertain financial gain. This message could be reinforced by the U.S. offering to open alternative revenue sources, most notably trade, if the North adopted a more cooperative policy. Would the world be a better place if Kim Jong-il was overthrown, the Kim regime was disarmed, and Communism disappeared from the North? Of course. That would make the North Koreans freer and the rest of us more secure.
A/t Nuclear Proliferation BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN Massachusetts Institute of Technology - WINTER 2008 http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv30n4/v30n4-1.pdf Nuclear weapons are our greatest worry and we probably should invest more to secure them and their components. However, given their size, the tight security that protects them, and the general need for activation codes to use them, the odds of terrorists stealing such a weapon and using it are close to zero AT: STRATEGIC POSITIONING ALLOWS FOR NUKE AGAINST AMERICA They have no Navy to carry out the attack Paul, Ron. M.D., US Representative, Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the Joint Economic Committee, April 6 2009 They do not have a Navy, what kind of an Air Force do they have, and yet it just seems like this is an excuse for the West, and in particular our military-industrial complex to have another excuse to have a massive build up.
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AT: IRAN WEAPONS NOT DEVELOPED YET N.K isnt really either AEROSPACE DAILY & DEFENSE REPORT, May 29, 2009 During a wide-ranging talk May 27 in Washington, President Obama's National Security Advisor James Jones said that recent actions by North Korea do not, in and of themselves, constitute an imminent threat to our safety and security. He said the North Koreans still have a long way to go to weaponize the instrument and also to have a delivery system ...that's obviously a very worst-case scenario and one we hope to avoid. While tensions with the North Koreans following their latest underground nuclear test remained a hot topic throughout the evening, Jones also underscored the complexity of the range of issues confronting the United States and its allies, telling the audience that national security in the 21st century is not just about a war on terror, but includes disparate threats like nuclear proliferation, climate and energy changes, economic security, cybersecurity, and narcoterrorism, among other things. AT: IRAN HAS NO NUKES SECRETS: empirical evidence proves Iran most likely has nukes The Washington Times, August 2 2010 Our own experience proves that Iran need not conduct a nuclear test in order to have nuclear weapons. Intelligence on Iran's nuclear program is not good. Iran's nuclear program is hidden from scrutiny, in secure underground facilities. Where all of these facilities are located and what they are doing is unknown. History suggests that we may already be too late to stop Iran's Islamic bomb. The U.S. Manhattan Project, when the A-bomb was merely a theoretical possibility, secretly used 1940sera technology to produce two atomic bombs of radically different designs - in just three years. Moreover, during those three years, the United States secretly developed the vast industrial nuclear-weapons infrastructure that quickly built hundreds of bombs during the early Cold War. Why do we suppose Iran cannot accomplish in 20 years of trying - with access to vast amounts of unclassified data on nuclear-weapons design and equipped with 21st-century technology - what the U.S. accomplished in three years during the 1940s? London Reuters, January 31 2011 Western powers should work on the assumption that Iran could have a nuclear weapon by next year and an Israeli intelligence assessment of 2015 could be over-optimistic, British Defence Secretary Liam Fox said on Monday.
North Korea nuke facilities arent operational/ will work with U.S like India The Guardian, February 11 2011 It is not known, however, if the estimated 2,000 centrifuges at the uranium facility are working properly. "What the report says is that [the uranium enrichment program is] not operational," an anonymous U.N. envoy told Reuters. "They (the panel) are also mentioning other secret facilities." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, May 5 2009 It is now very clear that North Korea wants a status very similar to India, where they obtain recognition of their right to retain nuclear weapons, but otherwise normalize relations with their neighbors and the United States. North Korea nukes arent strong Stanford Professor, November 30, 2010. "They took us to the site and they told us, 'We're building an experimental light-water reactor,' " he said. A light-water reactor (LWR) is a nuclear reactor, but "light-water reactors are great for electricity and poor for bombs," said Hecker
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A/T north korean nucs. - US government considers their tests failures US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT - February 2, 2010 http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony.pdf The Norths October 2006 nuclear test was consistent with our longstanding assessment that it had produced a nuclear device, although we judge the test itself to have been a partial failure based on its less-than-one-kiloton TNT equivalent yield. Sanctions effective on North Korea will stop nuke program or econ collapse Korean /Asian Newspaper, January 17 2011 North Korea could bring about its own collapse if it keeps pouring resources into nuclear and conventional weapons, South Korea's national security adviser said in an interview to be screened Monday. Chun Yung-Woo argued in the interview with US public broadcaster PBS that the Pyongyang regime faces so severe an economic crisis that it could collapse sooner than expected. The "energy for change is growing" and will reach "critical mass" at some point in the impoverished communist state, he said in excerpts posted on the PBS website. "We have shut down major channels of cash flow annually into North Korea" through sanctions, Chun said, adding that the North's continued spending on military capabilities "would be a short-cut to their demise". Chun said the North could not resolve its "existential" economic problems -- which include chronic food shortages -- on its own. The country is in a dire state of economic collapse exacerbated by severe flooding last year. "But the only way they can obtain massive outside assistance, which will be enough to turn the tide around, is denuclearisation," Chun said.
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Ballistics ineffective
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Suppliers of ballistic missile technology. N.p., 2004. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/files/SIPRIYB0412D.pdf>. Quote: Exporters are aware that most ballistic missiles have proven ineffective in conventional roles.
52
AT NK Biowarfare AT NK Bio
Source: International Crisis Group. NORTH KOREAS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS. N.p., 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/northkorea/167_north_koreas_chemical_and_biological_weapons_programs.ashx>. Quote: However, most recent assessments of that program have been revised downward; many analysts and policymakers now doubt Pyongyangs capabilities and intentions in bio-warfare.
AT NK Biowarfare AT NK Bio: they don't have it yet

Source: International Crisis Group. NORTH KOREAS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS. N.p., 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/northkorea/167_north_koreas_chemical_and_biological_weapons_programs.ashx>. Quote: In August 2005, General Leon LaPorte, Commander, U.S. Forces Korea, said he did not believe the DPRK had been able to weaponise biological agents, but we know they have worked that and are experimenting.92 General Bell, who replaced LaPorte in 2006, told the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee in March of that year that some reports suggest that Pyongyang may have a biological weapons research program.93
53

AT NK Biowarfare AT NK biowarfare: likely to backfire
Source: International Crisis Group. NORTH KOREAS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS. N.p., 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/northkorea/167_north_koreas_chemical_and_biological_weapons_programs.ashx>. Quote: But biological weapons can infect friendly forces and civilians, and North Korean BW defence and public health systems have no capacity to deal with epidemics. Though some analysts believe the DPRK has armed or would arm its ballistic missiles with BW warheads, this is very unlikely. It would be an inefficient use of expensive missile systems, and the KPA probably does not have the technical capability. A/t Biological weapons proliferation BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN Massachusetts Institute of Technology - WINTER 2008 http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv30n4/v30n4-1.pdf Weaponizing biological agents is a mean feat for most nations and probably beyond the capability of todays terrorist groups. A/t weapons proliferation BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN Massachusetts Institute of Technology - WINTER 2008 http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv30n4/v30n4-1.pdf the same breath as biological and nuclear weapons, are not much more deadly than conventional munitions and therefore their proliferation to terrorists should not be a special concern.
54

AT NK missiles AT NK missiles
Source: Feickert, Andrew Specialist in National Defense for the Congressional Research Service. Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Selected Foreign Countries. N.p., 2005. Web. 4 Feb. 2011. <http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL30427.pdf>. Quote: While most experts agree that North Koreas ballistic missile program is progressing, others suggest that the North Korean missile program suffers from a number of significant problems. Peter Hayes, the Director of the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, in Berkeley, California, who specializes in North Korean nuclear and energy issues, notes that North Korean missiles are unreliable.80 In terms of reliability, he suggests that the combined probability that a North Korean missile would both take off and then stage as intended was around 49 percent and that any hostile North Korean launch guaranteed an almost 100 percent retaliatory strike by the United States.81 Hayes also maintains that the North Koreans are terrible at systems engineering, and that each new missile type becomes a new type of unknown operating characteristic suggesting that a North Korean missile attack might look like an uncontrolled fireworks display.82
AT NK missiles AT NK supplies Iran

Source: George Washington University. Russian Weapons Sales to Iran. N.p., 2006. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets/docs/ponars/pm_0427.pdf>. Quote: more than 70 percent of Irans arms imports came from Russia, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a well-respected observer of global military transfers.
55

AT NK missiles Iran finances and helps propagate NK missile technology
Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Suppliers of ballistic missile technology. N.p., 2004. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/files/SIPRIYB0412D.pdf>. Quote: Iran has been involved in the North Korean ballistic missile programme since the early 1980s, mainly by providing finance but also by supplying North Korea with parts from Iraqi Al Hussein missiles salvaged from those used against Iran in the 198088 IraqIran War.25
AT NK missiles NK missiles inaccurate

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Suppliers of ballistic missile technology. N.p., 2004. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.sipri.org/yearbook/2004/files/SIPRIYB0412D.pdf>. Quote: The missiles used were inaccurate and carried only small, simple conventional warheads. With such warheads, especially single conventional warheads, ballistic missiles have proved to be a relative waste of resources if the lack of power is not compensated for by extreme accuracy.87 87 The widespread Scud-B missiles have a circular error of probability (CEP) of several hundred metres. The Rodong has a reported CEP of 7004000 metres. Most ballistic missiles carry warheads of less than 1000 kg. A/t weapons proliferation BENJAMIN H. FRIEDMAN Massachusetts Institute of Technology - WINTER 2008 http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv30n4/v30n4-1.pdf the same breath as biological and nuclear weapons, are not much more deadly than conventional munitions and therefore their proliferation to terrorists should not be a special concern.
56

AT Chem Weapons
Source: International Crisis Group. NORTH KOREAS CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS. N.p., 2009. Web. 15 Mar. 2011. <http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/northkorea/167_north_koreas_chemical_and_biological_weapons_programs.ashx>. Quote: the military usefulness of CW has declined, because militaries have the means to defend themselves.
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AT EMPS AT EMP: able to easily defend
Source: Naegle, Timothy Of the Defense Intelligence Agency at The Pentagon. EMP attack. N.p., 2010. Web. 13 Mar. 2011. <http://www.naegele.com/documents/EMPAttackOnly30MillionAmericansSurvive-NaegeleBlog.pdf>. Quote: Preventing against EMPs is easy As the Wall Street Journals editorial stated: The Commission offers a series of recommendations for reducing U.S. vulnerability. It calls for better intelligence, particularly in coastal waters. Also needed are vigorous interdiction and interception efforts such as missile defense. Critical components of civilian infrastructure especially the electrical power gridneed to be EMP-hardened. Most new units can be hardened for 1% to 3% of cost if done at the time of design and manufacture.
AT EMPS AT EMPs
Source: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis. Missile Defense,the Space Relationship,& the Twenty-First Century. N.p., 2009. Web. 5 Feb. 2011. <http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWG2009.pdf>. Quote: As part of this system, the United States also upgraded early-warning radars presently stationed at Beale Air Force Base in California, in Greenland, and in the United Kingdom. The land-based U.S. missile defense architecture includes the deployment of Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) systems to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, together with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system (THAAD) to intercept short-and medium-range missiles at high altitudes.
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AT: DIPLOMACY SOLVES Heritage Foundation JUST DELAY SITUATION SO CAN DEVELOP.. therefore its backfire or bad After reaching the agreement in principle, the Iranian regime backpedaled and made an unacceptable counterproposal in mid-December that would have greatly reduced the amount of uranium that would leave Iran. U.S. officials say that Ahmadinejad initially accepted the deal, but was rebuked by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and pulled back from it. On November 3, Ayatollah Khamenei warned Iranian political leaders to be wary of dealings with the United States, which could not be trusted, and said that negotiating with the United States was "naïve and perverted." The Iranian regime's initial acceptance and subsequent rejection of the nuclear deal is consistent with its long-established pattern of cheat, retreat, and delay on nuclear issues. When caught cheating on its nuclear safeguards obligations, Tehran has repeatedly promised to cooperate with the IAEA to defuse the situation and to halt the momentum for imposing further sanctions. Then, after the crisis is averted, it reneges on its promises and stonewalls IAEA requests for more information. These delaying tactics consume valuable time, which Iran has used to press ahead with its nuclear weapons research. AT: Sanctions cause Proliferation encourages self-sufficiency Dareini, AP Writer, 2010 Ali Akbar, writes for many news sources such as the Boston Globe, and the Washington Post, Ahmadinejad: Sanctions Make Iran Stronger, April http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/04/03/ahmadinejad-sanctions-mak_n_524425.html# Accessed 7/17/2010 TEHRAN, Iran Faced with the prospect of new sanctions because of Iran's nuclear defiance, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday that new penalties would only strengthen the country's technological progress by encouraging it to become more self-sufficient. In a speech, Ahmadinejad also rejected President Barack Obama's offers of engagement, saying "three or four beautiful words" don't mean U.S. policies have changed under his administration. "They say they have extended a hand to Iran, but the Iranian government and nation declined to welcome that," he said. "What kind of hand did you extend towards the Iranian nation? What has changed? Did you lift sanctions? Did you stop propaganda? Did you reduce the pressure?" White House spokesman Bill Burton said Saturday the U.S. administration would have no comment on the Iranian president's remarks. Iran has periodically boasted of what it says is growing self-sufficiency in technological sectors like its satellite program and other scientific work. Seeking to demonstrate that point, Ahmadinejad's speech on Saturday was to workers at the inauguration of an industrial project in southern Iran. He said Iran need not be bothered by the prospect of new sanctions. "They (Americans) said they want to impose fuel sanctions. ... They don't understand that they work in our favor. They imagine we will get upset should they refuse to sell gasoline to us. ... No, we immediately tell experts to produce it," he said. Ahmadinejad said the U.S. has failed to isolate Iran. He said the fact that Obama's recent visit to Afghanistan was not announced beforehand for security reasons was evidence of America's own isolation.
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Irans becoming self-sufficient. Sanctions will not work Luft, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, 2009 Gal Luft, The New Iran Sanctions: Worse Than the Old Ones, Foreign Policy | AUGUST 11, 2009, pg. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/08/11/the_new_iran_sanctions_worse_than_the _old_ones] These efforts, in addition to an effective petrol rationing scheme, have slashed Iran's need to import petroleum products. As of this fall, Iran's daily gasoline dependence will stand below 25 percent. This figure is expected to decline even further to roughly 15 percent over the next year as new refining capacity comes online. By 2012 Iran is projected to be gasoline self-sufficient; shortly after that, the Islamic Republic is likely to become a net gasoline exporter. AT: SANCTIONS (OIL ARGUMENT: sanctions cause high oil prices, so ineffective sanctions as no nation will listen)
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AT: NORTH KOREA HELPING THE TALIBAN WASHINGTON POST, August 10 2010
Of course, the report of the North Korea visit by Hekmatyar and bin Laden aide Amin al-Haq (or ulHaq) might well have been false -- or even fabricated to implicate Pyongyang, some sources said. As one former senior CIA officer put it, You are right to distrust information on this topic, since every serious intelligence organization in the world, and certainly our own, is probably engaged in disinformation as part of a general psy-ops program.
INFO GIVEN OUT BY WIKILEAKS, and its wrong previously knew it was Irans weapons telling lies to cover up Iran as the real threat
My thoughts are that perhaps the intelligence report might have been provided by a HUMINT [human intelligence] source under the hostile control of either Iran or Pakistan, to deliberately mislead us and turn attention away from them as the providers of such weapon systems and blame the North Koreans.
IF DID TRULY GET THE WEAPONS FROM N.K- they arent using them anyways
Even if the Taliban has them, says Gary Berntsen, a former CIA officer in Afghanistan, the rebels would risk their lives every time they turned them on. Instead, he said, They have, and try to use, dishkas, Russian heavy anti-aircraft machine guns that can knock down a helicopter with troops.
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2011 March Neg Briefs

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Training Iran has trained 4500 hezbollah

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Training Iran supervises training camps in other nations

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Helps AQ AQ in contact with hez etc.

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Iran Hurts Afghan War Effort Iran hurts efforts in Afghanistan

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Venezuela Missiles Iran is putting missiles in Venezuela

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EMP EMP definition

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EMP EMP undetectable

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EMP EMP would set back US to 1800's

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Even a conventional war in the Middle East would go nuclear

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IMPACT BESIDES HEGEMONIC= harm economic, political, and military

Global Alternative to U.S. Dollar

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NK Succession Crisis If KJI dies early, succession chaos

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NK Succession Crisis NK's Chang a threat to succession

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NK Succession Crisis If KJI dies early, succession chaos

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NK Succession Crisis NK's Chang a threat to succession

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