Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences Vol. 6, No.

2, 81-86, 2010

ISSN: 1814-8085

IDENTIFICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE LOWER INDUS BASIN, SINDH, PAKISTAN

Gohar Ali Mahar1 and Nayyer Alam Zaigham2 Department of Geography, Federal Urdu University, Karachi, Pakistan 2 Unit for Ain Zubaida Rehabilitation & Groundwater Research, Faculty of Engineering, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
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Abstract There are several factors causing impact on the climatic sustainability. Humans intervention in the hydrodynamic cycle is one of them. The research studies, relevant to downstream areas of some worlds major river systems like Huang He, Nile and Danube rivers, show drastic climatic changes in response to the large scale hydrological moderation due to the man-made water-flow diverting activities in the upstream areas. Similar climatic changes have been identified in the case of the Indus river. The results of present study show that the trends of 44-years annual average temperatures, precipitations and humidity parameters are distinctly changing in the lower Indus river basin from 1961 to 2004 and expectedly onward particularly in and around the delta region. In general, the average annual temperatures show the rising trend and inversely the precipitation and humidity are decreasing causing substantial deterioration of the rainfall scenario in and around the study area. Considering the mass water divergence of the Indus River System in upstream areas causing acute depletion of Indus water-flow into the downstream Kotri barrage areas and the fast urban and industrial developments, it is inferred that the present climate changing trends are being more augmented due to the critical depletion of the Indus environmental-flow in the Badin area of the lower Indus basin as compared to the Hyderabad and the Karachi areas where ever-increasing faster urban and industrial growths are also contributing substantial inverse impact on the climatic parameters. Keywords: Lower Indus basin, climate changes, human intervention, Sindh, Pakistan. INTRODUCTION In relation to the global drylands susceptible to desertification, the lower Indus basin and the deltaic region are placed in the category of coastal arid domain (Fig. 1). The study area is situated at the north-eastern coast of the Arabian Sea bounded by the Thar desert in the east, flood plains of Indus river in the north and barren mountainous area of Khirthar range in the north-west. The mean annual rain varies from 250 mm in the east to 175 mm in the west. In general, the months of May and June are the hottest months with maximum temperatures ranging between 40 and 42 0C and December and January are the coldest months with minimum temperatures ranging between 100 and 250 C. The rains generally occur during July-September. Humidity is variable throughout the year and the sea breeze blows from southwest. Regionally, the decadal means of the 50-years climatic data show a significant climatic variability from the northern to the southern areas of Pakistan (Zaigham, 2005). In the northern Indus plains of the Punjab province, the decadal means of temperatures show a decreasing trend from 0.5 to 0.6 0C, whereas the decadal mean of precipitation shows an increase of 270 mm. On the other hand, the decadal means of temperature show Corresponding author: E-mail: goharmahar@hotmail.com slight increase in temperature but a decrease of about 31 mm precipitation in the southern Indus plain of Sindh province. Zaigham (2005) considered these climatic variations associated with the differential changes in the greenhouse impact as a result of imbalance in the water distribution of the Indus River System created due to the massive water divergence within the upstream areas by depleting the water availability in the downstream areas particularly the Indus delta.

Study area

Fig. 1. Map shows dry-lands susceptible for the desertification in relation to the study area shown with circle (modified after Earthaction, 1995).

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J. basic appl. sci. 2004 relevant to the precipitation, temperature and humidity from Pakistan Meteorology Department. The unpublished water-flow and sediments discharge data of Indus river, measured at the Kotri station for the period from 1931-32 to April 2009 and 1931-32 to 1986-87 respectively, have been collected in thousand acres feet (TAF) from the Power and Irrigation Department, Government of Sindh, Karachi in the form of hard copies.. The acquired data have further been formatted and processed for the present analyses. Polynomial trend lines have been used to graphically display trends in data and to analyze problems in relation to the last 50 years climate scenario and to predict future trends. Polynomial trend line is a curved line that is used when data fluctuates. In this study, the data of weather parameters is very fluctuating, that indicates the change in weather cycle. Similarly the exponential curve line have been developed on the water flow and sediment discharge data, because the exponential curve lines are used when the data rise or fall. In this study, the water flow and sediment discharge shows a continuous decreasing trend. In view to access the overall variability trends of climate parameters in the lower Indus basin and delta region, the annual averages of the temperature, precipitation and humidity have been modeled for the year to year interactive comparison with respect to time and space (Figures 3, 4 and 5). Trends of Temperature Variation Significant climate changing trends of the average annual temperatures have been observed at all the three weather stations (Fig. 3). In Badin area, the polynomial trend shows a consistent decline of temperature from 1961 upto mid of 1980s and after that it is again uprising steadily upto 2004 and also indicates the continuation of this rise further in years to come. On the other hand, the trend of the temperature variation in Hyderabad area is more or less opposite to that of Badin. The polynomial curve shows that the average temperature is rising from 1961 till mid 1980s and after that the trend shows a declining till 2004 and onward. The temperature variations in both the areas show that the change was relatively rapid in Badin area as compare to the Hyderabad area that is situated at about 100 km northwest of Badin. It may be pointed out that Badin is closer to the coastal area whereas Hyderabad is relatively far from the coast. Contrary to Hyderabad and also to Badin, the trend of temperature-variation shows completely a different style in Karachi. The annual average temperatures were much lower ranging from 25 to 26C during early 1960s but they are slowly increasing upto mid of 1970s and after

It is observed that the past, present and future fluvial, deltaic, and coastal dynamics are controlled by the hydrological variables, which significantly depend on the impact of climate (Giosan et al, 2006; Zaigham, 2005). The case may be vice versa, if the hydrological variables are controlled by the anthropogenic activities. It is widely recognized that climate changes may occur due to a sudden change in parameters or forcing that are external to the system like the sudden release of freshwater from a glacial lake or stoppage of freshwater from catchment, a volcanic eruption, a massive nuclear war etc. (Kravtsova et al., 2009; Weaver and Hillaire-Marcel, 2004; Pidwirny, 2006). In general, it is reported that the global temperature has increased by 0.6C over the last 100 years (UNEP, 1990; USGCCRP, 2009). Similarly, it is also reported that the surface air temperature in India and its surrounding areas are going up at rate of 0.4C/100 year (Reuters, 2009). The study, based on the flow data observed from 1931 to 2009, shows a consisting depletion in the water and sediment discharges in the downstream area (Fig. 2). In fact since more than one and a half centuries, the enormous water of the Indus and its tributary rivers has been diverted and also is presently being diverted in the upstream areas of Pakistan and India. The depleting scenario of Indus water-flow down to the lower Indus basin and the delta region is expected to alter the patterns of monsoon rains.
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Run off (MAF) Sediment load (MT) Expon. (Run off (MAF)) Expon. (Sediment load (MT))

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Fig. 2. Graphic plot shows the water flow trend from 1931 to April 2009, the sediments discharge trend from 1931 to1987 and the relevant exponential curves till 2009.

This paper describes recent trends of the climate change in and around the Indus delta. METHODOLOGY Weather data, recorded at Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin stations, have been acquired for the period from 1961 to

1931-32 1933-34 1935-36 1937-38 1939-40 1941-42 1943-44 1945-46 1947-48 1949-50 1951-52 1953-54 1955-56 1957-58 1959-60 1961-62 1963-64 1956-66 1967-68 1969-70 1971-72 1973-74 1975-76 1977-78 1979-80 1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08
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Fig. 3. Bar graph of temperature data with polynomial curve of Badin, Hyderabad and Karachi Meteorological stations.
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Fig. 4. Bar graph of precipitation data with polynomial curve of Badin, Hyderabad and Karachi meteorological stations. that rapidly upto 2004. The behaviour of the polynomial curve indicates that the trend will continue rising in future as also observed in the case of Badin. Comparing Karachi trend with that of Badin, it is observed that the faster rising segment of the temperature-rise in both the areas is almost the same. But as a whole the changing trend of Karachi temperature is entirely different on larger scale as compare to Badin. Trends of Precipitation Variation A correlation model of precipitation has been developed to assess the year to year comparison for the precipitation trend in Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin areas (Figure 4). Apparently, the year to year comparison does not show correspondence in precipitation behavior among these three areas, as the data of each station show poor cyclic

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Fig. 5. Graphic plots of humidity data collected at Karachi, Badin and Hyderabad from 1961 to 2004.

trend. However, the polynomial averaging shows a better comparison in the precipitation trends of these areas. The precipitation polynomial curve of Karachi area shows a consistent declining trend from 1961 to 2004 and onward. On the other hand, the precipitation polynomial curve of Hyderabad shows declining trend till early 1980s and onward it shows slow rising till 2004 and onward. On the contrary, the Badin polynomial trend shows an increase in the precipitation till mid 1980s and slows declining onward, like in the case of polynomial trend of precipitation for the Karachi. Badin shows a reverse trend of precipitation totally unlike of Hyderabad trend. However, a slow decline in precipitation in Badin is observed after mid-1980s till 2004 and expected to continue in future like in the case of Karachi, but at relatively slower rate. Trends of Humidity Variation Figure-5 shows a year to year correlation of humidity data and their polynomial trends relevant to Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin areas, which are characteristically parallel in their variations from 1961 to 2004. The humidity values of Badin are higher than the values recorded at Hyderabad. In general, these humidity trends show the rising behavior till mid-1980s and the decrease up to 2004 extending possibly onward in Hyderabad and Badin areas. It is also observed that the humidity declining in Badin area is relatively slower than that of Hyderabad. Moreover, the humidity trend shows that the average humidity value is relatively higher in 2004 in comparison to the prevailing humidity during 1960s1970s. In Karachi region, on the other hand, the humidity trend is consistently decreasing from 1961 to 2004 and possibly onward in future.

DISCUSSION Considering the variation trends of the temperature, precipitation and humidity in the Karachi region, it is inferred that the rapid i) growth of population due to the continuous mass-influx from other parts of the country since independence in 1947 and ii) development of larger industrial and urban sectors have sufficiently contributed in the increasing of average temperature and decreasing of precipitation and humidity since 1961. Though, Karachi is not directly linked with the environmental-flow of the Indus river, but it is being provided water supply from the Kotri barrage through a feeder canal to meet the domestic and industrial needs of the mega-city of Pakistan. The present water supply from Indus to Karachi falls much shorter than the city needs, which is directly and/or indirectly also causing adverse impact on the climate in and around the city as the greenery is critically lacking and as such failing in depleting of CO2, other toxic gases and particulates. Similarly, the population influx from other parts of the Sindh province and the development of industrial sector in Hyderabad city are causing adverse impact on climate, but on lesser scale than the Karachi region. The climatic change in this area also seems to be controlled more by the environment modified as a consequence of the constant depletion of water-flow of the Indus river as the city is situated on the east bank of the river. Considering the population of Karachi, the Hyderabad is 12-times smaller and the Badin is about 3-times smaller than Hyderabad. Similarly, the industrial and urban developments are of the much smaller magnitude in Badin area. Thus, the present delineated climate changes in Badin area are considered the results of the internal

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Mahar and Zaigham manmade activities relevant to the deteriorating greenhouse effects because of the extreme depletion of environmental-flow of the Indus water to the delta region. Base on the trends of 44-years annual average temperatures in Hyderabad and Badin areas, it has been inferred that the ongoing temperature variations are mainly associated with the environmental factors, like greenhouse effect as a consequence of the onset of desertification under the influence of water scarcity caused by enormous depletion of Indus water-flow into the downstream areas and the delta. Although, the variation in Hyderabad is lesser as compare to Badin because of the constant population and urban growth in the city. Continuous fluctuation in weather parameters shows the increasing as well as decreasing trends in different time periods in Hyderabad but average temperature has increased. The increase in 44-years average temperatures has caused inversely proportional decrease in the precipitation and the humidity in both the areas of Hyderabad and Badin unlike the Karachi area that is being controlled more by the exponential increase in the industrial and urban growth. However, one thing is common among Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin that the average temperature presently increasing and the precipitation and humidity are decreasing with respect to prevailing climatic parameters in 1961. Under the present study, the integration of all analyses of temperatures, precipitations and humidity data has clearly revealed the drastic climatic changes causing substantial deterioration of the rainfall scenario in and around the lower Indus basin and the delta areas. CONCLUSIONS From the results of the analyses and subsequent interpretations of the 44-years weather data (i.e., temperature, precipitation and humidity) from 1961 to 2004, following conclusions have been drawn. 1. Based on literature research it is found that the ongoing practices of water-divergence of Indus River System in the upstream areas of Indus basin since early 1800s century has caused differential development of the greenhouse effects causing climatic variability from north to south within the country. The 44-years annual average trends of the temperatures, precipitations and humidity show rise in temperature and inverse proportionately decrease of precipitation and humidity with respect to recorded weather data at Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin. Rapid population and industrial growth may also be one of the factors for the temperature rise for the

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Karachi region in addition to the greenhouse effects mentioned above whereas the climatic changes are considered mainly associated with the influence of water scarcity caused by the enormous depletion of Indus water-flow into the downstream areas and the delta as a result of massive water divergence in the upstream areas. 4. The over all climate change, observed during the present study, is inferred to cause the substantial deterioration of the rainfall scenario in and around the lower Indus basin and the delta areas, which may further augment in future.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The present paper is extracted from the research study funded through research grant No.042-130341-ps2-137 provided by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) of Pakistan to accomplish the PhD thesis of the co-author. HEC is gratefully acknowledged for providing funds without which the accomplishment of the research study was not possible. We are thankful to Pakistan Meteorological Department, Karachi, for the generous cooperation in providing the weather data recorded at Karachi, Hyderabad and Badin stations. REFERENCES Giosan, L., Constentinerscu, S., Clift, PD., Tabrez, A.R., Danish, M., Inam, A. 2006. Recent morphodynamics of the Indus delta, shore and shelf: Continental Shelf Research 26, 1668-1684. Kravtsova, V.I. Mikhailova, V.N., Efremova, N.A., 2009. Variation of hydrological regime, morphological structure, and landscape of Indus River delta (Pakistan) under the effect of large-scale water management measures. Water Resources, 36 (4), 465-379 Pidwirny, M. 2006. "Causes of Climate Change". Fundamentals of Physical Geography, 2nd Edition. Date Viewed. http://www.physicalgeography.net/fundamentals/7y.html Reuters, 2009. Impact of climate change on India: 29 July http//:www.alertnet.org/services/alaerting/breakingnews_ adv.htm?] UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), 1990. An introduction to man-made climate change: United Nations Environment Programme Information Unit for Climate Change Fact Sheet 1. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Information Unit for Climate Change (IUCC). USGCCRG (Uinted State Global Change Research Program), 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the

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J. basic appl. sci. Zaigham, NA. 1999. Deep groundwater prospects beneath the Thar desert of Pakistan: Bull. Geologica, GSP, 4(1): 97-112. Zaigham, NA. 2005. Impact of controlled environmental flow and earthquake activities on Indus delta causes irreversible poverty: In proceeding of RiverSymposium, Brisbane, Australia.

United States: downloads.globalchange.gov/usimpacts/ pdfs/Global.pdf Weaver, AJ. and Hillaire-Marcel, C. 2004. Global warming and the next ice age: Science, 304 (5669), 400402.