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The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change
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Tle mission o rle !ilan !ano !nsrirure is ro piovioe leaoeislip in rle iesponsille use o lano ano in ciearing
ano susraining rliiving communiries woilowioe. !!! is commirreo ro
Biinging rogerlei leaoeis iom acioss rle helos o ieal esrare ano lano use policy ro exclange lesr piacrices
ano seive communiry neeos,
!osreiing collaloiarion wirlin ano leyono !!!`s memleislip rliougl menroiing, oialogue, ano
piollem solving,
!xploiing issues o uilanizarion, conseivarion, iegeneiarion, lano use, capiral oimarion, ano
susrainalle oevelopmenr,
Aovancing lano use policies ano oesign piacrices rlar iespecr rle uniqueness o lorl luilr ano
naruial enviionmenrs,
Slaiing knowleoge rliougl eoucarion, applieo ieseaicl, pullisling, ano elecrionic meoia, ano
Susraining a oiveise glolal nerwoik o local piacrice ano aovisoiy eoirs rlar aooiess cuiienr ano
uruie clallenges.
!srallisleo in 1936, rle !nsrirure rooay las some 38,OOO memleis in ovei 9O counriies, iepiesenring rle enriie
specrium o rle lano use ano oevelopmenr oisciplines. !!! ielies leavily on rle expeiience o irs memleis. !r is
rliougl memlei involvemenr ano inoimarion iesouices rlar !!! las leen alle ro ser sranoaios o excellence in
oevelopmenr piacrice. Tle !nsrirure las long leen iecognizeo as one o rle woilo`s mosr iespecreo ano wioely quoreo
souices o oljecrive inoimarion on uilan planning, giowrl, ano oevelopmenr.
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Rcid Iwing is a ieseaicl pioessoi ar rle `arional Cenrei oi Smair Ciowrl, !niveisiry o Maiylano, an
associare eoiroi o rle Jouinal o rle Ameiican Planning Associarion, a columnisr oi Planning magazine, ano a ellow
o rle !ilan !ano !nsrirure. !ailiei in lis caieei, le seiveo rwo reims in rle Aiizona legislaruie, analyzeo uilan
policy issues ar rle Congiessional Buoger hce, ano liveo ano woikeo in Clana ano !ian.
Kcith 8artholomcw is an assisranr pioessoi o uilan planning in rle !niveisiry o !ral`s College o
Aiclirecruie + Planning. An enviionmenral lawyei, le woikeo oi ren yeais as rle sra arroiney oi 1OOO !iienos
o iegon, wleie le oiiecreo 'Making rle !ano !se, Tianspoirarion, Aii Qualiry Connecrion" (!!TRAQ), a
narionally iecognizeo ieseaicl piogiam examining rle inreiacrive eecrs o communiry oevelopmenr ano riavel
lelavioi.
Stcvc Winkclman is oiiecroi o rle Tianspoirarion Piogiam ar rle Cenrei oi Clean Aii Policy (CCAP). !e
cooioinareo rianspoirarion analyses o climare clange plans oi `ew Yoik ano seveial orlei srares, culminaring in rle
CCAP Tianspoirarion !missions Cuioelook, wlicl quanrihes savings iom +O rianspoirarion policies. !n !eliuaiy
2OO7 Sreve launcleo a narional oiscussion, '!inking Cieen-T!A ano Climare Policy," ro ciar policy solurions rlar
aooiess riavel oemano.
Jcrry Waltcrs is a piincipal ano clie reclnical ohcei wirl !eli & Peeis Associares, a Calioinia-laseo
rianspoirarion planning ano engineeiing him. !e oiiecrs inregiareo lano use/rianspoirarion ieseaicl ano planning
oi pullic enriries ano ieal esrare oevelopmenr inreiesrs rliouglour rle !nireo Srares ano alioao.
Don Chcn is rle ounoei ano execurive oiiecroi o Smair Ciowrl Ameiica (SCA) ano las woikeo oi rle
Suiace Tianspoirarion Policy Piojecr, rle \oilo Resouices !nsrirure, ano rle Rocky Mounrain !nsrirure. !e las
leen earuieo in numeious news piogiams ano pullicarions, las lecruieo in `oirl Ameiica, !uiope, Ausrialia, ano
Asia, ano las wiirren oi many magazines ano jouinals, incluoing 'Tle Science o Smair Ciowrl" oi Scienrihc
Ameiican.
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Tle pliase 'you can`r ger rleie iom leie" las a new applicarion. !oi climare sralilizarion, a commonly
accepreo raiger woulo iequiie rle !nireo Srares ro cur irs cailon oioxioe (C
2
) emissions ly 6O ro 8O peicenr as o
2O5O, ielarive ro 199O levels. Cailon oioxioe levels lave leen incieasing iapioly since 199O, ano so woulo lave ro
level o ano oecline even moie iapioly ro ieacl rlis raiger level ly 2O5O. Tlis pullicarion oemonsriares rlar rle !.S.
rianspoirarion secroi cannor oo irs aii slaie ro meer rlis raiger rliougl velicle ano uel reclnology alone. \e lave
ro hno a way ro slaiply ieouce rle giowrl in velicle miles oiiven acioss rle narion`s spiawling uilan aieas, ieveising
rienos rlar go lack oecaoes.
Tlis pullicarion is laseo on an exlausrive ieview
o exisring ieseaicl on rle ielarionslip lerween uilan
oevelopmenr, riavel, ano rle C
2
emirreo ly moroi
velicles. !r piovioes evioence on ano insiglrs inro low mucl
rianspoirarion-ielareo C
2
savings can le expecreo wirl
compacr oevelopmenr, low compacr oevelopmenr is likely
ro le ieceiveo ly consumeis, ano wlar policy clanges will
make compacr oevelopmenr possille. Seveial ielareo issues
aie nor ully examineo in rlis pullicarion. Tlese incluoe rle
eneigy savings iom moie ehcienr luiloing rypes, rle value
o pieseiveo oiesrs as cailon sinks, ano rle eecriveness
o piicing sriaregiessucl as rolls, paiking claiges, ano
mileage-laseo eeswlen useo in conjuncrion wirl compacr
oevelopmenr ano expanoeo rianspoirarion alreinarives.
Tle reim 'compacr oevelopmenr" ooes nor imply
ligl-iise oi even unioimly ligl oensiry, lur iarlei liglei
aveiage 'llenoeo" oensiries. Compacr oevelopmenr also
earuies a mix o lano uses, oevelopmenr o sriong popularion
ano employmenr cenreis, inreiconnecrion o srieers, ano rle
oesign o sriucruies ano spaces ar a luman scale.
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Tle !nireo Srares is rle laigesr emirrei woilowioe o rle gieenlouses gases rlar cause glolal waiming.
Tianspoirarion accounrs oi a ull rliio o C
2
emissions in rle !nireo Srares, ano rlar slaie is giowing as orleis
sliink in compaiison, iising iom 31 peicenr in 199O ro 33 peicenr rooay !r is laio ro envision a 'solurion" ro rle
glolal waiming ciisis rlar ooes nor involve slowing rle giowrl o rianspoirarion C
2
emissions in rle !nireo Srares.
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Tianspoirarion C
2
ieoucrion can le vieweo as a rliee-leggeo srool, wirl one leg ielareo ro velicle uel
ehciency, a secono ro rle cailon conrenr o rle uel irsel, ano a rliio ro rle amounr o oiiving oi velicle miles
riaveleo (VMT). !neigy ano climare policy iniriarives ar rle eoeial ano srare levels lave pinneo rleii lopes almosr
exclusively on sloiing up rle hisr rwo legs o rle srool, rliougl rle oevelopmenr o moie ehcienr velicles (sucl as
lyliio cais) ano lowei-cailon uels (sucl as liooiesel uel). Yer a srool cannor srano on only rwo legs.
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Scienrihc consensus now exisrs
rlar gieenlouse gas accumularions oue
ro luman acriviries aie conriiluring
ro glolal waiming wirl porenrially
carasrioplic consequences (!PCC
2OO7). !nreinarional ano oomesric
climare policy oiscussions lave
giavirareo rowaio rle goal o limiring
rle rempeiaruie inciease ro 2C ro 3C
ly curring gieenlouse gas emissions
ly 6O ro 8O peicenr lelow 199O
levels ly rle yeai 2O5O. Tle piimaiy
gieenlouse gas is cailon oioxioe,
ano eveiy gallon o gasoline luineo
pioouces alour 2O pounos o C2
emissions.
(
As rle ieseaicl compileo in rlis pullicarion makes cleai, reclnological impiovemenr in velicles ano uels aie
likely ro le oser ly conrinuing, iolusr giowrl in VMT. Since 198O, rle numlei o miles Ameiicans oiive las giown
rliee rimes asrei rlan rle !.S. popularion, ano almosr rwice as asr as velicle iegisriarions (see !iguie O-1). Aveiage
auromolile commure rimes in meriopoliran aieas lave iisen sreaoily ovei rle oecaoes, ano many Ameiicans now
speno moie rime commuring rlan rley oo vacarioning.
Tlis iaises some quesrions, wlicl rlis iepoir aooiesses. \ly oo we oiive so mucl? \ly is rle roral oisrance we
oiive giowing so iapioly? Ano wlar can le oone ro alrei rlis rieno in a mannei rlar is eecrive, aii, ano economically
accepralle?
Tle giowrl in oiiving is oue
in laige pair ro uilan oevelopmenr,
oi wlar some ieei ro as rle luilr
enviionmenr. Ameiicans oiive
so mucl lecause we lave given
ouiselves lirrle alreinarive. !oi 6O
yeais, we lave luilr lomes evei
airlei iom woikplaces, cieareo
sclools rlar aie inaccessille
excepr ly moroi velicle, ano
isolareo orlei oesrinarionssucl
as sloppingiom woik ano
lome. !iom \oilo \ai !! unril
veiy iecenrly, neaily all new
oevelopmenr las leen planneo ano
luilr on rle assumprion rlar people
will use cais viirually eveiy rime
rley riavel. As a laigei ano laigei
slaie o oui luilr enviionmenr las
lecome auromolile oepenoenr,
cai riips ano oisrances lave incieaseo, ano walking ano pullic riansir use lave oeclineo. Popularion giowrl las leen
iesponsille oi only a quairei o rle inciease in velicle miles oiiven ovei rle lasr couple o oecaoes. A laigei slaie o
rle inciease can le riaceo ro rle eecrs o a clanging uilan enviionmenr, namely ro longei riips ano people oiiving
alone.
As wirl oiiving, lano is leing consumeo oi oevelopmenr ar a iare almosr rliee rimes asrei rlan popularion
giowrl. Tlis expansive oevelopmenr las causeo C
2
emissions iom cais ro iise even as ir las ieouceo rle amounr o
oiesr lano availalle ro alsoil C
2
.
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Cailon oioxioe is moie oihculr ro conriol rliougl velicle reclnology rlan aie convenrional aii polluranrs.
Convenrional polluranrs can le ieouceo in auromolile exlausr wirl soplisricareo emission conriol sysrems (caralyric
conveireis, on-loaio compureis, ano oxygen sensois). Cailon oioxioe, meanwlile, is a oiiecr ourcome o luining
ossil uels, rleie is no piacrical way ro iemove oi capruie ir iom moving velicles. Ar rlis poinr in rime, rle only way
ro ieouce C
2
emissions iom velicles is ro luin less gasoline ano oiesel uel.
An analysis ly Sreve \inkelman o rle Cenrei oi Clean Aii Policy, one o rle coaurlois o rlis pullicarion,
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Index (1980 = 1)
VMT Vehicles Population
Soivti: !!\A :oo.
IIGRI 0-1
Cvov:u oi VMT, Viuitii Riois:va:ioxs, axb Poviia:iox
ix :ui !xi:ib S:a:is viia:ivi :o 1p8o Vaiiis
)
hnos rlar C
2
emissions will conrinue ro iise, oespire reclnological aovances, as rle giowrl in oiiving oveiwlelms
planneo impiovemenrs in velicle ehciency ano uel cailon conrenr. Tle !.S. epairmenr o !neigy`s !neigy
!noimarion Aominisriarion (!!A) oiecasrs rlar oiiving will inciease 59 peicenr lerween 2OO5 ano 2O3O (ieo line,
!iguie O-2), ourpacing rle
piojecreo 23 peicenr inciease
in popularion. Tle !!A also
oiecasrs a eerwioe uel
economy impiovemenr o
12 peicenr wirlin rlis rime
iame, piimaiily as a iesulr
o new eoeial uel economy
sranoaios oi liglr riucks
(gieen line, !iguie O-2).
espire rlis impiovemenr
in ehciency, C
2
emissions
woulo giow ly +1 peicenr
(oaik llue line, !iguie O-2).
!.S. uel economy las
leen ar oi almosr 15 yeais,
as rle upwaio spiial o cai
weiglr ano powei las oser
rle moie ehcienr reclnology. !eoeial ano srare eoirs aie unoeiway ro consioeially loosr velicle ehciency ano
ieouce gieenlouse gas emissions. !n June 2OO7, rle !.S. Senare passeo coipoiare aveiage uel economy (CA!!)
sranoaios rlar woulo inciease new passengei velicle uel economy iom rle cuiienr 25 miles pei gallon (mpg) ro 35
mpg ly 2O2O. (As o rlis wiiring, rle !ouse las nor acreo.). Calioinia plans ro implemenr a low cailon sranoaio oi
rianspoirarion uels, specihcally a 1O peicenr ieoucrion in uel cailon conrenr ly 2O2O.
!ven i rlese moie
sriingenr sranoaios oi
velicles ano uels weie ro
go inro eecr narionwioe,
rianspoirarion-ielareo
emissions woulo srill ai
exceeo raiger levels oi
sralilizing rle glolal climare
(see !iguie O-3). Tle iapio
inciease in oiiving woulo
oveiwlelm lorl rle inciease
in velicle uel economy
(gieen line) ano rle lowei
cailon uel conrenr (puiple
line). !n 2O3O, C
2
emissions
woulo le 12 peicenr alove
rle 2OO5 level, ano +O
peicenr alove rle 199O level
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005 = 100%
Source: EIA AEO 2007
CO2
1990 CO2
Fuel GHG
MPG
VMT
!ioivi o-:
Pvo)it:ib Cvov:u ix C: !xissioxs ivox Cavs axb !iou: Tvitxs
Soivti: !!A :oo.
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005 = 100%
Sources: VMT: EIA with 10% rebound MPG: US Senate, Fuels: CARB
CO2
1990 CO2
Fuel GHG
MPG
VMT
!ioivi o-
Pvo)it:ib Cvov:u ix C: !xissioxs ivox Cavs axb !iou: Tvitxs
Assixixo S:vixoix: `a:ioxvibi Viuitii axb !iii S:axbavbs*
*\i:u Sixa:i CA!! iiviis -- `iv Passixoiv Viuitii !iii !toxoxv oi xvo ix :o:o
axb Caiiiovxia !ov Cavnox !iii S:axbavb oi -1o ix :o:o avviiib xa:ioxaiiv.
*
(ruiquoise line). !oi climare sralilizarion, rle !nireo Srares musr liing rle C
2
level ro 15 ro 3O peicenr lelow 199O
levels ly 2O2O ro keep in play a C
2
ieoucrion o 6O ro 8O peicenr ly 2O5O.
As rle piojecrions slow, rle !nireo Srares cannor aclieve sucl laige ieoucrions in rianspoirarion-ielareo C
2

emissions wirlour slaiply ieoucing rle giowrl in miles oiiven.
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Recognizing rle unsusrainalle giowrl in oiiving, rle Ameiican Associarion o Srare !iglway ano Tianspoirarion
hcials (AAS!T), iepiesenring srare oepairmenrs o rianspoirarion, is uiging rlar rle giowrl o velicle miles
oiiven le cur in lal. !ow ooes a giowing counriyone wirl 3OO million iesioenrs ano anorlei 1OO million on rle
way ly mio-cenruiyslow rle giowrl o velicle miles oiiven? Aggiessive measuies ceirainly aie availalle, incluoing
imposing evei sriei ees ano raxes on oiiving ano paiking
oi esrallisling no-oiive zones oi oays. Some counriies
aie expeiimenring wirl sucl measuies. !owevei, many in
rlis counriy woulo view sucl sreps as punirive, given rle
iealiry rlar mosr Ameiicans oo nor lave a vialle alreinarive
ro oiiving. Tle looy o ieseaicl suiveyeo leie slows rlar
mucl o rle iise in velicle emissions can le cuileo simply
ly giowing in a way rlar will make ir easiei oi Ameiicans ro
oiive less. !n acr, rle weiglr o rle evioence slows rlar, wirl
moie compacr oevelopmenr, people oiive 2O ro +O peicenr
less, ar minimal oi ieouceo cosr, wlile ieaping orlei hscal
ano lealrl lenehrs.
?fn:fdgXZk;\m\cfgd\ek?\cgjI\[lZ\
k_\E\\[kf;i`m\
Berrei communiry planning ano moie compacr
oevelopmenr lelp people live wirlin walking oi licycling
oisrance o some o rle oesrinarions rley neeo ro ger ro
eveiy oaywoik, slops, sclools, ano paiks, as well as riansir
srops. ! rley cloose ro use a cai, riips aie sloir. Rarlei rlan
luiloing single-use suloivisions oi ohce paiks, communiries
can plan mixeo-use oevelopmenrs rlar pur lousing wirlin
ieacl o rlese orlei oesrinarions. Tle srieer nerwoik can le
oesigneo ro inreiconnecr, iarlei rlan eno in culs-oe-sac ano
unnel riahc onro oveiuseo aireiial ioaos. !noivioual srieers
can le oesigneo ro le 'complere," wirl sae ano convenienr
places ro walk, licycle, ano wair oi rle lus. !inally, ly
luiloing moie lomes as conoominiums, rownlouses, oi
oeracleo louses on smallei lors, ano ly luiloing ohces,
sroies ano orlei oesrinarions 'up" iarlei rlan 'our,"
communiries can sloiren oisrances lerween oesrinarions.
Tlis makes neiglloilooo sroies moie economically vialle,
allows moie iequenr ano convenienr riansir seivice, ano
lelps sloiren cai riips.
!ioivi o-
is:ixa:ioxs vi:uix xi-Qiav:iv Miii oi
Cix:iv iov Cox:vas:ixo S:vii: `i:vovxs
ix Sia::ii
Soivti: Moibox i: ai. 1pp.
+
Tlis rype o oevelopmenr las seen a iesuigence in iecenr yeais, ano goes ly many names, incluoing
'walkalle communiries," 'new uilanisr neiglloilooos," ano 'riansir-oiienreo oevelopmenrs" (Ts). '!nhll"
ano 'liownhelo" oevelopmenrs pur unuseo lors in uilan aieas ro new uses, raking aovanrage o exisring neaily
oesrinarions ano iniasriucruie. Some 'liesryle cenreis" aie now ieplacing single-use slopping malls wirl open-aii
slopping on connecreo srieers wirl lousing ano ohce space as pair o rle new oevelopmenr. Ano many communiries
lave ieoiscoveieo ano ieviralizeo rleii riaoirional rown cenreis ano oownrowns, oren aooing moie lousing ro rle
mix. Tlese vaiieo oevelopmenr rypes aie collecrively ieeiieo ro in rlis pullicarion as 'compacr oevelopmenr" oi
'smair giowrl."
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As rlese oims o oevelopmenr lave lecome moie common, planning ieseaicleis ano piacririoneis lave
oocumenreo rlar iesioenrs o compacr, mixeo-use, riansir-seiveo communiries oo less oiiving. Sruoies lave lookeo ar
rle issue iom vaiying angles, incluoing:
ieseaicl rlar compaies oveiall riavel parreins among iegions ano neiglloilooos o vaiying compacrness ano
auro oiienrarion,
sruoies rlar ollow rle riavel lelavioi o inoivioual louselolos in vaiious serrings, ano
mooels rlar simulare ano compaie rle eecrs on riavel o oieienr uruie oevelopmenr scenaiios ar rle iegional
ano piojecr levels.
Regaioless o rle appioacl, ieseaicleis lave ouno signihcanr porenrial oi compacr oevelopmenr ro ieouce rle
miles rlar iesioenrs oiive.
A compielensive spiawl inoex
oevelopeo ly coaurloi Reio !wing o
rle `arional Cenrei oi Smair Ciowrl
ar rle !niveisiry o Maiylano iankeo
83 o rle laigesr meriopoliran aieas in
rle !nireo Srares ly rleii oegiee o
spiawl, measuiing oensiry, mix o lano
uses, sriengrl o acriviry cenreis, ano
connecreoness o rle srieer nerwoik
(!wing, Penoall, ano Clen 2OO2, 2OO3).
!ven accounring oi income ano orlei
socioeconomic oieiences, iesioenrs
oiove ai less in rle moie compacr
iegions. !n liglly spiawling Arlanra,
velicles iackeo up 3+ miles eacl oay
oi eveiy peison living in rle iegion.
Towaio rle orlei eno o rle scale, in
Poirlano, iegon, velicles weie oiiven
ewei rlan 2+ miles pei peison, pei oay.
Tlis ielarionslip lolos up in
sruoies rlar ocus on rle riavel lalirs o
inoivioual louselolos wlile measuiing
rle enviionmenr suiiounoing rleii
27
21
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
10 Most Sprawling Metropolitan
Areas
10 Most Compact Metropolitan
Areas
Average Daily VMT per Capita
!ioivi o-
Avivaoi aiiv Viuitii Miiis Tvaviiib
Soivti: !vixo, Pixbaii, axb Cuix :oo:, v. 18.
,
lomes ano/oi woikplaces. Tle link lerween uilan oevelopmenr parreins ano inoivioual oi louselolo riavel las
lecome rle mosr leavily ieseaicleo suljecr in uilan planning, wirl moie rlan 1OO iigoious empiiical sruoies
complereo. Tlese sruoies lave leen alle ro conriol oi acrois sucl as socioeconomic srarus, ano can accounr oi rle
acr rlar liglei-income louselolos reno ro make moie ano longei riips rlan lowei-income amilies.
ne o rle mosr compielensive sruoies, conoucreo in King Counry, \aslingron, ly !aiiy !iank o rle
!niveisiry o Biirisl Columlia, ouno rlar iesioenrs o rle mosr walkalle neiglloilooos oiive 26 peicenr ewei
miles pei oay rlan rlose living in rle mosr spiawling aieas. A mera-analysis o many o rlese rypes o sruoies
hnos rlar louselolos living in oevelopmenrs wirl rwice rle oensiry, oiveisiry o uses, accessille oesrinarions, ano
inreiconnecreo srieers wlen compaieo ro low-oensiry spiawl oiive alour 33 peicenr less.
Many sruoies lave leen conoucreo ly oi in pairneislip wirl pullic lealrl ieseaicleis inreiesreo in low rle
luilr enviionmenr can le lerrei oesigneo ro encouiage oaily plysical acriviry. Tlese sruoies slow rlar iesioenrs o
communiries oesigneo ro le walkalle lorl oiive ewei miles ano also rake moie riips ly oor ano licycle, wlicl
impioves inoivioual lealrl. A iecenr lireiaruie ieview ouno rlar 17 o 2O sruoies, all oaring iom 2OO2 oi larei, lave
esrallisleo srarisrically signihcanr ielarionslips lerween some aspecr o rle luilr enviionmenr ano rle iisk o olesiry.
Two orlei rypes o sruoies also hno ielarionslips lerween oevelopmenr parreins ano oiiving: simularions rlar
piojecr rle eecr o vaiious giowrl oprions oi enriie iegions ano simularions rlar pieoicr rle impacr o inoivioual
oevelopmenr piojecrs wlen sireo ano oesigneo in oieienr ways. !n iegional giowrl simularions, planneis compaie
rle eecr o a meriopoliran-wioe lusiness-as-usual scenaiio wirl moie compacr giowrl oprions. Coaurloi Keirl
Bairlolomew o rle !niveisiry o !ral analyzeo 23 o rlese sruoies ano ouno rlar compacr scenaiios aveiageo
8 peicenr ewei roral miles oiiven rlan lusiness-as-usual ones, wirl a maximum ieoucrion o 31.7 peicenr
(Bairlolomew 2OO5, 2OO7). Tle lerrei-peioiming scenaiios weie rlose wirl liglei oegiees o lano use mixing, inhll
oevelopmenr, ano popularion oensiry, as well as a laigei amounr o expecreo giowrl. Tle riavel mooels useo in rlese
sruoies woulo le expecreo ro unoeiesrimare rle impacrs o sire oesign, since mosr only ciuoely accounr oi riavel
wirlin neiglloilooos ano oisiegaio walk ano like riips enriiely.
rle piojecr-level sruoies, one o rle lesr known evaluareo rle impacr o luiloing a veiy oense, mixeo-
use oevelopmenr ar an alanooneo sreel mill sire in rle leair o Arlanra veisus spieaoing rle equivalenr amounr o
commeicial space ano numlei o lousing unirs in rle pievailing parreins ar rliee suluilan locarions. Analysis using
rianspoirarion mooels enlanceo ly coaurloi Jeiiy \alreis o !eli & Peeis Associares (\alreis, !wing, ano Allen
2OOO), ano supplemenreo ly rle !PA`s Smair Ciowrl !noex (ro capruie rle eecrs o sire oesign) ouno rlar rle inhll
locarion woulo geneiare alour 35 peicenr less oiiving ano emissions rlan rle compaiison sires. Tle iesulrs weie so
compelling rlar rle oevelopmenr was oeemeo a rianspoirarion conriol measuie ly rle eoeial goveinmenr oi rle
puipose o lelping ro impiove rle iegion`s aii qualiry. Tle Arlanric Srarion piojecr las lecome a liglly successul
ieuse o cenrial ciry inousriial lano.
-
N_XkJdXik>ifnk_Nflc[CffbC`b\
!ow woulo rlis new ocus on compacr oevelopmenr clange !.S. communiries? Many moie
oevelopmenrs woulo look like rle riansir-oiienreo oevelopmenrs ano new uilanisr neiglloilooos
alieaoy going up in almosr eveiy ciry in rle counriy, ano rlese oevelopmenrs woulo srair hlling in vacanr
lors oi ailing sriip
slopping cenreis, oi
woulo ieviralize oloei
rown cenreis, iarlei
rlan ieplacing oiesrs
oi aimlano. Mosr
oevelopmenrs woulo
no longei le single-use
suloivisions oi ohce
paiks, lur woulo mix
slops, sclools, ano
ohces rogerlei wirl
lomes. Tley miglr
earuie giouno-ooi
sroies ano ohces wirl
living space alove, oi
rownlomes wirlin
walking oisrance o
a ierail cenrei. Mosr
oevelopmenrs woulo
le luilr ro connecr
seamlessly wirl rle
exreinal srieer nerwoik.
Tle oensiry
incieases iequiieo ro
aclieve rle clanges
pioposeo in rlis pullicarion woulo le mooeiare. `elson`s woik slows rlar rle aveiage oensiry o
iesioenrial oevelopmenr in !.S. uilan aieas was alour 7.6 unirs pei acie in 2OO3. !is pieoicrions o
sliring maiker oemano inoicare rlar all lousing giowrl ro 2O25 coulo le accommooareo ly luiloing
conoominiums, apairmenrs, rownlomes, ano oeracleo louses on small lors, wlile mainraining rle cuiienr
srock o louses on laige lors. !noei rlis scenaiio, wlile new oevelopmenrs woulo aveiage a oensiry o 13
unirs pei acie, rle aveiage oensiry o meriopoliran aieas oveiall woulo iise mooesrly, ro alour nine unirs
pei acie. Mucl o rle clange woulo iesulr iom sropping rle spiawling oevelopmenr rlar las iesulreo in
alling oensiries in many meriopoliran aieas.
Seveial pullicarions piovioe a glimpse o wlar rlis uruie miglr look like. !mages o compacr
oevelopmenr aie availalle in Tlis is Smair Ciowrl (Smair Ciowrl `erwoik 2OO6) ano Visualizing
ensiry (!incoln !nsrirure o !ano Policy 2OO7).
Jatonv iviiovxix: Coxvaxv
A:iax:it S:a:iox :obav.
.
K_\Gfk\ek`Xcf]JdXik>ifnk_
Tle porenrial o smair giowrl ro cuil rle iise in gieenlouse gas emissions will, o couise, le limireo ly rle
amounr o new oevelopmenr ano ieoevelopmenr rlar rakes place ovei rle nexr ew oecaoes, ano ly rle slaie o ir rlar
is compacr in naruie. Tleie seems ro le lirrle quesrion rlar a giear oeal o new luiloing will rake place as rle !.S.
popularion giows rowaio +OO million. Accoioing ro rle lesr availalle analysis, ly Cliis `elson o Viiginia Tecl, 89
million new oi ieplaceo lomesano 19O lillion squaie eer o new ohces, insrirurions, sroies, ano orlei noniesioenrial
luiloingswill le consriucreo rliougl 2O5O. ! rlar is so, rwo-rliios o rle oevelopmenr on rle giouno in 2O5O will le
luilr lerween now ano rlen. Puisuing smair giowrl is a low-cosr climare clange sriaregy, lecause ir involves sliring
invesrmenrs rlar lave ro le maoe anyway.
JdXik>ifnk_D\\kj>ifn`e^DXib\k;\dXe[]fi:_f`Z\
Tleie is no ooulr rlar moving away iom a ossil uellaseo economy will iequiie many oihculr clanges.
!oirunarely, smair giowrl is a clange rlar many Ameiicans will emliace. !vioence alounos rlar Ameiicans aie
oemanoing moie cloices in wleie ano low rley liveano rlar clanging oemogiaplics will acceleiare rlar oemano.
\lile pievailing zoning ano oevelopmenr piacrices rypically make spiawling oevelopmenr easiei ro luilo, oevelopeis
wlo make rle eoir ro cieare compacr communiries aie encounreiing a iesponsive pullic. !n 2OO3, oi rle hisr rime in
rle counriy`s lisroiy, rle sales piices pei squaie oor oi arracleo lousingrlar is, conoominiums ano rownlouseswas
liglei rlan rlar o oeracleo lousing unirs. Tle ieal
esrare analysis him Roleir Clailes !essei & Co. las
conoucreo a oozen consumei pieeience suiveys in
suluilan ano uilan locarions oi a vaiiery o luiloeis
ro lelp rlem oevelop new piojecrs. Tle suiveys lave
ouno rlar in eveiy locarion examineo, alour one-
rliio o iesponoenrs pieei smair giowrl lousing
piooucrs ano communiries. rlei sruoies ly rle
`arional Associarion o !omeluiloeis, rle `arional
Associarion o Realrois, rle !annie Mae !ounoarion,
ligl-piooucrion luiloeis, ano orlei ieseaicleis lave
coiioloiareo rlese iesulrssome esrimaring even
giearei oemano oi smair giowrl lousing piooucrs.
\len smair giowrl also oeis sloirei commures, ir
appeals ro anorlei one-quairei o rle maiker, lecause
many people aie willing ro riaoe lor oi louse size oi
sloirei commures.
Because rle oemano is giearei rlan rle cuiienr
supply, rle piice-pei-squaie oor values o louses in mixeo-use neiglloilooos slow piice piemiums ianging iom +O
ro 1OO peicenr, compaieo ro louses in neaily single-use suloivisions, accoioing ro a sruoy ly Cliis !einleigei o rle
Biookings !nsrirurion.
Tlis maiker oemano is only expecreo ro giow ovei rle nexr seveial oecaoes, as rle slaie o louselolos wirl
cliloien sliinks ano rlose maoe up o oloei Ameiicans giows wirl rle ieriiing o laly loomeis. !ouselolos wirlour
cliloien will accounr oi close ro 9O peicenr o new lousing oemano, ano single-peison louselolos will accounr oi
a one-rliio. `elson piojecrs rlar rle oemano oi arracleo ano small-lor lousing will exceeo rle cuiienr supply ly 35
million unirs (71 peicenr), wlile rle oemano oi laige-lor lousing will acrually le less rlan rle cuiienr supply.
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Attached Small lot Large lot
Housing Units in 1000s
2003 Supply 2025 Demand Net New Units Needed
!ioivi o-
:oo !oisixo Sivviv vivsis :o: !oisixo ixaxb
Soivti: `iisox :oo.
KfkXc<jk`dXk\[MDKI\[lZk`feXe[KfkXc:c`dXk\@dgXZk
\len vieweo in roral, rle evioence on lano use ano oiiving slows rlar compacr oevelopmenr will ieouce
rle neeo ro oiive lerween 2O ano +O peicenr, as compaieo wirl oevelopmenr on rle ourei suluilan eoge wirl
isolareo lomes, woikplaces, ano orlei oesrinarions. !r is iealisric ro assume a 3O peicenr cur in VMT wirl compacr
oevelopmenr.
Making ieasonalle assumprions alour giowrl iares, rle maiker slaie o compacr oevelopmenr, ano rle
ielarionslip lerween C
2
ieoucrion ano VMT ieoucrion, smair giowrl coulo, ly irsel, ieouce roral rianspoirarion-
ielareo C
2
emissions iom cuiienr rienos ly 7 ro 1O peicenr as o 2O5O. Tlis ieoucrion is aclievalle wirl lano-use
clanges alone. !r ooes nor incluoe aooirional ieoucrions iom complemenraiy measuies, sucl as liglei uel piices
ano cailon raxes, peak-peiioo ioao rolls, pay-as-you oiive insuiance, paio paiking, ano orlei policies oesigneo ro
make oiiveis pay moie o rle ull social cosrs o auro use.
Tlis esrimare also ooes nor incluoe rle eneigy saveo in luiloings wirl compacr oevelopmenr, oi rle C
2
-
alsoiling capaciry o oiesrs pieseiveo ly compacr oevelopmenr. \larevei rle roral savings, ir is impoiranr ro
iememlei rlar lano use clanges piovioe a peimanenr climare lenehr rlar woulo compouno ovei rime. Tle secono
5O yeais o smair giowrl woulo luilo on rle lase ieoucrion iom rle hisr 5O yeais, ano so on inro rle uruie. Moie
immeoiare sriaregies, sucl as gas rax incieases, oo nor lave rlis oegiee o peimanence.
Tle aurlois calculare rlar sliring 6O peicenr o new giowrl ro compacr parreins woulo save 85 million
meriic rons o C
2
annually ly 2O3O. Tle savings ovei rlar peiioo equare ro a 28 peicenr inciease in eoeial velicle
ehciency sranoaios ly 2O2O (ro 32 mpg), compaialle ro pioposals now leing oelareo in Congiess. !r woulo le as
i rle eerwioe ehciency oi new velicles lao iisen ro 32 mpg ly 2O2O. !veiy iesioenr o a compacr neiglloilooo
woulo piovioe rle enviionmenral lenehr expecreo iom, say, oiiving one o rooay`s ehcienr lyliio cais. Tlar eecr
woulo le compounoeo, o couise, i rlar peison also oiove sucl an ehcienr cai wlenevei le oi sle close ro make a
velicle riip. Smair giowrl woulo lecome an impoiranr 'rliio leg" in rle rianspoirarion secroi`s hglr againsr glolal
waiming, along wirl moie ehcienr velicles ano lowei-cailon uels.
8:c`dXk\$JgXi`e^JkiXk\^pn`k_Dlck`gc\GXpf]]j
Aooiessing climare clange rliougl smair giowrl is an arriacrive sriaregy lecause, in aooirion ro leing in line
wirl maiker oemano, compacr oevelopmenr piovioes many orlei lenehrs ano will cosr rle economy lirrle oi norling.
Reseaicl las oocumenreo rlar compacr oevelopmenr lelps pieseive aimlano ano open space, piorecr warei qualiry,
ano impiove lealrl ly piovioing moie oppoiruniries oi plysical acriviry.
Sruoies also lave conhimeo rlar compacr oevelopmenr saves raxpayeis money, pairiculaily ly ieoucing rle
cosrs o iniasriucruie sucl as ioaos ano warei ano sewei lines. !oi example, rle !nvision !ral scenaiio planning
piocess iesulreo in rle selecrion o a compacr giowrl plan rlar will save rle iegion alour $+.5 lillion in iniasriucruie
spenoing ovei a conrinuarion o spiawling oevelopmenr.
!inally, unlike lyoiogen-ueleo velicles ano cellulosic erlanol, wlicl ger a lor o arrenrion in rle climare-
clange oelare, rle 'reclnology" o compacr, walkalle communiries exisrs rooay, as ir las in one oim oi anorlei oi
rlousanos o yeais. \e can legin using rlis reclnology in rle seivice o a coolei planer iiglr now.
0
Gfc`Zp@dgc`ZXk`fej
!n mosr meriopoliran aieas, compacr oevelopmenr aces an uneven playing helo. !ocal lano oevelopmenr cooes
encouiage auro-oiienreo oevelopmenr. Pullic spenoing suppoirs oevelopmenr ar rle meriopoliran iinge moie rlan
in alieaoy oevelopeo aieas. Tianspoirarion policies iemain ocuseo on accommooaring rle auromolile iarlei rlan
alreinarives.
Tle key ro sulsranrial gieenlouse gas (C!C) ieoucrions is ro ger all policies, unoing, incenrives, piacrices,
iules, cooes, ano iegularions poinring in rle same oiiecrion ro cieare rle iiglr conoirions oi smair giowrl.
!nnovarive policies oren aie in oiiecr conicr wirl rle convenrional paiaoigm rlar pioouces auromolile oepenoence.
!eie, we ourline rliee majoi policy iniriarives ar rle eoeial level rlar woulo lenehr srares, merio iegions,
ciries ano rowns in rleii eoirs ro meer rle giowing oemano oi compacr oevelopmenr. Tlese iniriarives, as well as
porenrial acrions on rle pair o srare ano local goveinmenrs, aie oiscusseo moie ully in Claprei 7 o Creving Cee/cr.
=\[\iXc8Zk`fej
I\hl`i\KiXejgfikXk`fe:fe]fid`kp]fi>i\\e_flj\>Xj\j%!eoeial climare clange legislarion sloulo
iequiie iegional rianspoirarion plans ro pass a conoimiry resr oi C
2
emissions, similai ro rlose oi orlei ciireiia
polluranrs. Tle Supieme Couir iuling in Massacluserrs v. !PA esrallisleo rle oimal aurloiiry ro consioei
gieenlouse gases unoei rle Clean Aii Acr, ano a rianspoirarion planning conoimiry iequiiemenr woulo le an
olvious way oi rle !PA ro exeicise rlis aurloiiry ro pioouce rangille iesulrs.
<eXZk>i\\e$K<8KiXejgfikXk`feC\^`jcXk`fek_XkI\[lZ\j>?>j% Tle !nreimooal Suiace
Tianspoirarion !hciency Acr o 1991 (known as !ST!A) iepiesenreo a ievolurionaiy lieak iom pasr liglway
lills wirl irs giearei emplasis on alreinarives ro rle auromolile, communiry involvemenr, enviionmenral goals, ano
cooioinareo planning. Tle nexr suiace rianspoirarion lill coulo liing yer anorlei paiaoigm slir, ir coulo uirlei
aooiess enviionmenral peioimance, climare piorecrion, ano gieen oevelopmenr. \e ieei ro rlis oppoiruniry as
'Cieen-T!A."
Gifm`[\=le[`e^;`i\ZkcpkfD\kifgfc`kXeGcXee`e^Fi^Xe`qXk`fejDGFj%Meriopoliran aieas
conrain moie rlan 8O peicenr o rle narion`s popularion ano 85 peicenr o irs economic ourpur. !nvesrmenr ly
srare oepairmenrs o rianspoirarion in meriopoliran aieas lags ai lelino rlese peicenrages. Tle issue is nor jusr rle
amounr o unoing, ir is also rle aurloiiry ro oecioe low rle money is spenr. \lar is necessaiy ro iemeoy rle long
lisroiy o sriucruial ano insrirurional causes o rlese inequiries is a new sysrem o allocaring eoeial rianspoirarion
unos oiiecrly ro meriopoliran aieas. Tle amounr o allocarion sloulo le closei ro rle piopoirion o an MP`s
popularion ano economic acriviry compaieo ro orlei MPs ano non-MP aieas in rle same srare.
('
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