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By Scott Patterson USA TODAY Wall Street firms may be on the edge of a financial calamity and most dont know it, say analysts tracking the debt-ceiling faceoff in Washington. Many market players expect the White House and Congress to come to a deal to boost the debt limit beyond its current $14.3 trillion cap. Others in Washington say chances are high that an agreement wont be reached before the Aug. 2 deadline, when the Treasury Department predicts it wont have enough cash to pay all of its bills. If the deadline passes with no deal, stocks and other assets could take a pounding, much as they did after Congress initial rejection of a massive bailout in September 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 778 points on the vote, its largest one-day point uMoney managers making plans, 1B drop ever. Many on Wall Street uPlan to cut the dont see that happen- deficit may have to wait, 7A ing. Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at Prudential Fixed Income, thinks the odds that an agreement isnt reached by the deadline are less than 1%. Were guardedly optimistic, he says. However, Stan Collender, an expert on federal fiscal policy, puts the odds at 50%. Wall Street has completely priced in the likelihood of a deal, says Collender, a budget analyst at Qorvis Communications in Washington. Thats very dangerous because they dont seem to have prepared ahead of time. While money managers view the debate through the lens of the markets, elected officials keep their eyes on the views of those who put them in office. Tea Party Republicans in the House of Representatives say they were elected to get control of the soaring federal deficit. Youre asking a big chunk of elected officials to vote against the will of their constituents, says former Delaware senator Ted Kaufman, a Democrat. Now we are less than two weeks away from requiring the House and the Senate to pass a bill that many Americans may not support. He puts the odds that the government fails to act by Aug. 2 at 60%. Elected officials may need to be shocked into action. While some members of Congress, including Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., say they dont expect the market to unravel if the debt ceiling isnt raised, a market selloff could spark a deal. Indeed, thats the same scenario that played out on Sept. 29, 2008, when the House defeated a $700 billion bailout of the financial system. After the stock market tanked, the House passed the bailout. Wall Street complacency could explain why a deal hasnt been hammered out already, says Mark Thoma, a professor of economics at the University of Oregon. Im a little bit surprised that financial markets arent sending a stronger message, he says. If they were, perhaps an agreement would have been reached quicker.
Pooling the fun: Nick Godfrey, 12, of Campbellsport, Wis., makes a splash at the Fond du Lac fairgrounds (right). Temperatures are forecast to ease in the upper Midwest today through Saturday, but they likely will build back up by next week.
A cool escape: In Chicago (above), the Crown Fountain at Millennium Park offers visitors a bit of respite. On Wednesday, 33 states were under heat advisories and warnings. Chicagos heat index hit 108 degrees.
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resolution is completed this week, a full NFL schedule can commence as planned. If talks linger, a ripple effect looms that would delay the start of camps and threaten to at least alter the preseason schedule. Owners are set to vote today on COVER whether to ratify a new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) that in- STORY cludes a new split in revenue that is projected to grow from the $9.3 billion in 2010. But with ratification votes also needed from the players, the waiting game continues. I think both sides are where we can complete a deal, NFL lead counsel Jeff Pash said. We can close. We should close. Although players did not vote on whether to accept the deal Wednesday as league officials had hoped, Pash said he still expected owners would Please see COVER STORY next page u
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View at top: Visitors pause behind a safety railing at a Vernal Fall observation point last summer. fed spring waterfalls, but this year the flows have been stronger and have lasted longer because of a huge snowpack and unusually cool, wet conditions. The parks Tioga Pass Road stayed closed until mid-June, one of its latest openings on record, and several campgrounds remained offlimits until July. Tuesdays Vernal Fall deaths are the sixth wa-
A part of history: The FDNYs Ladder Company 3 firetruck is lowered by crane Wednesday into the National September 11 Memorial & Museum in New York. The firetruck was used to evacuate people from the twin towers on 9/11.
Mist opportunity: Trayvon Harris, left, 12 and Edward Brown, 9 , run through a sprinkler at Franklin Square Park on Wednesday in Milwaukee. They were part of a group from the Milwaukee Public Schools Department of Recreation.
The heat index has soared well above 100 degrees across much of the USA this week. The index measures how hot it feels when humidity is added to the actual air temperature. Selected heat index values from Tuesday:
Sidney, Mont. Gwinner, N.D.
110
122
Hutchinson, Minn.
123
Newton, Iowa
Tekamah, Neb.
129
110
Champaign, Ill.
Lawrence, Kan.
117
106
St. Louis
115
Memphis
107
112
111
Source: Hydrometeorological Prediction Center By Doyle Rice and Karl Gelles, USA TODAY
By Jim Mone, AP
In St. Paul: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton receives the Minnesota budget bill to sign Wednesday. The bill, which ends a government shutdown, was a deal made with GOP lawmakers. Dayton said he was not entirely happy with it.
College of Emergency Physicians puts out press releases and alerts to really try to emphasize for people to watch out for the heat, to stay cool, and to check on elderly neighbors, said David Seaberg, president-elect of the organization. In Minnesota, which saw high tempertures in the mid- to upper-90s this week, the press has done a good job of alerting people, said Eric Christianson, an emergency medical physician with the Minnesota Medical
Center in Fairview. If people have any of the normal resources, then theyre able to deal with it, he said. In New York, which is bracing for the worst of the heat wave today through Saturday, We have hundreds of cooling stations all around the state, which could be a municipal library, a school, anything where we can provide air conditioning and water, said Dennis Michalski, spokesperson for the New York State Office of Emergency Management.
According to the National Weather Service, 33 states were under heat advisories and warnings on Wednesday in a direct line from western Nebraska to southern Maine, a distance of almost 1,600 miles. A total of 100 million people were affected by the heat advisories on Wednesday. Chicago had a heat index of 108 degrees on Wednesday afternoon, The Weather Channel reported. The heat index measures how hot it feels when humidity is added to the actual air temperature. On Tuesday, at least 17 states hit the 100-degree mark, while more than 40 surpassed 90 degrees, AccuWeather reported. Roads and sidewalks across many cities and towns from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania have buckled in the extreme temperatures. Nationwide, the heat is putting significant stress on the nations power grid. Today and Friday are expected to be hotter than any time since 1950 for many areas, said Travis Hartman, the Energy Weather Manager at MDA Earthstat, which provides forecasts for utilities. Its going to mean elevated power demand for an extended period of time for a
lot of people, he said. The dangerous heat will peak Thursday through Saturday in the East, as winds turn west to southwest over the Northeast and tap into the hot, humid air from the Midwest and South, said Weather Channel meteorologist Jon Erdman. The heat will ease in the northern Plains and upper Midwest during that same time, he added. The break in the heat there will likely only be temporary, as the heat is forecast to build back into the Midwest by next week, said Weather Channel meteorologist Brian Fortier. The hoary clich, its not the heat, its the humidity, appears to be accurate. The heavy rain throughout the spring in the upper Midwest and northern Plains is helping to raise the humidity levels across the region during this heat wave, Fortier said. The temperatures arent as hot because of all the moisture, he said. But the humidity is making the heat just as bad if not worse than the historic heat waves, Fortier said. Contributing: Carly Mallenbaum; the Associated Press uComplete weather, 10A
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