What To Do Now

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Excerpts from an Eight Hour, CPA CPE Workshop for Greensboro City Council Candidates George Hartzman triadwatch.blogspot.com

The following is a culmination of more than 13 years of ongoing research that has provided a way to discover how to navigate what is, and offers a vehicle for others to find answers to questions they may or may not have thought of. Insights have been accumulated while working as a financial advisor and portfolio manager through The Asian Currency Crisis, Y2K, The Dot.com Bubble, 9/11, The Financial Crisis of 2008-9, and continue as subsequent geopolitical, military, economic, fiscal and monetary events occur. All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered. The point is to discover them. Galileo Galilei, Censored Astronomer If most were to comprehend the realities of what may actually be, as opposed to what most currently think is, an entirely different set of counterintuitive circumstances could emerge. Effectiveness through understanding could be exponential, as long as most continue to not know what they could. The power of accurate observation is frequently called cynicism by those who don't have it. George Bernard Shaw Current thoughts: triadwatch.blogspot.com CPE Fields of Study: Accounting Governmental, Business Ethics, Finance and Economics, Behavioral Ethics, Personal Development, Social Environment of Business, Regulatory Ethics, Business Management and Organization, Management Advisory Services, and Economics. Format originally conceived to conform to financial institution marketing compliance guidelines to teach CPAs, attorneys and investors economics, financial planning, philosophy and business ethics. Class style: Enigma cocooned in inquiry surrounded by the random chaos of Socratic debate which is not supposed to be easy. The end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started and know the place for the first time. T. S. Eliot The quotes provide context to increase comprehension, with the fewest words in the shortest time. Out of intense complexities, intense simplicities emerge. Winston Churchill

Question what did, is, could, should and shouldnt.

Directions
Begin. Write down answers, thoughts and additional questions as you go. Book mark and return to what takes too long or confuses. Document interrelations, anecdotes, analogies, metaphors and thoughts. Highlight questions to explore or share with others. End. The illiterates of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. Alvin Toffler Investigate unknowns. Weigh author and self bias. What you may think I'm thinking, isn't necessarily what I'm thinking. George Hartzman Confirm assumptions. Learn from misconceptions. Contemplate. Debate. Consider what may happen after what could probably happen next. Execute. Examine new information. Begin again. Why is this thus? What is the reason for this thusness? Artemus Ward To leave readers better off by challenging what and how we think. Writing style is kind of like poetry, only different. People are usually more convinced by reasons they discovered themselves than by those found by others. Blaise Pascal, French Mathematician, Philosopher and Physicist, 1623-1662 If the present embodies the past and future, rational analysis maximizes present accomplishment, and chances of success are better for those who more accurately prognosticate the farthest into the future, the who and why to find first is you, before the when and how to achieve what for the longest time with the least risk. The questions are puzzle pieces designed to initiate debate, encourage independent verification and promote self examination. If what others think is true may not be what you do, interpretations should differ. The opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of the report, and are subject to change without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. The material has been prepared solely for information purposes. Graphics utilized with permission or government produced. ~ = about

When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed. The rule allows people to speak as individuals and to express views that may not be those of their organizations, and therefore, encourages free discussion. Speakers are free to voice their own opinions, without concern for their personal reputation or their official duties and affiliations. The Chatham House Rule

Contents
Money Political Ethics Economics, Debt & Statistics Peak Saul Etc Think, Need, Want & Happiness Think = Chess Think Chess & Cognitive Dissonance Communication Ethics Plan Dont What to Do Now George Hartzman 5 16 18 23 29 33 35 37 39 49 54 55 56

the earth belongs to each of these generations during its course, fully and in its own right. The second generation receives it clear of the debts and incumbrances of the first, the third of the second, and so on. For if the first could charge it with a debt, then the earth would belong to the dead and not to the living generation. Then, no generation can contract debts greater than may be paid during the course of its own existence. Thomas Jefferson to James Madison, 1789 Have we betrayed our childrens future, by indenturing offspring to finance a more pleasant present?

Governments cannot create but merely redirect. When the government spends, the money has to come from somewhere. If the government doesn't have a surplus, then it must come from taxes. If taxes don't go up, then it must come from increased borrowing. If lenders won't lend, then it must come from the printing press... each additional dollar printed diminishes the value of those already in circulation. Something cannot be effortlessly created from nothing. Peter Schiff

Money
If a nation prints more money, like cutting a large pizza into 16 slices instead of 8, is each slice worth less? What if the pizza shrinks while the number of slices rise?

When national debts have once been accumulated to a certain degree, [there has never been] a single instance of their having been fairly and completely paid. The liberation of the public revenue...has always been brought about by bankruptcy, though frequently by a pretended payment [through inflation]. Adam Smith Moral philosopher and Father of Modern Economics

If one family has meat and another is growing vegetables, could the meat family accept an I Owe yoU for some present meat, in exchange for some future vegetables, plus extra to compensate for waiting? Like borrowing from a bank? If the Veggie family exchanges future need (not yet ripe vegetables), for present sustenance (meat), is the IOU money and the extra interest? Like buying groceries with a credit card? If the Meat family exchanges a Veggie IOU for an axe, is the transaction dependent on the IOUs perceived value? Like the trade-in value of a used car, relative to what the trade-in can be sold for in the future? Could widespread consensus of an over-abundantly large crop make the Veggie IOU worth less axe? Like buying local corn after a extraordinary harvest? What could happen if the Veggie family issues, or is thought to have issued, more IOUs than planted seeds? We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long sustain large ever-growing trade deficits. our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume more than they produce, that's the trade deficit, we have, day by day been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own. Warren Buffett Should an IOU backed by faith and credit remain relatively stable as long as faith and credit exist? What does Quantitative Easing mean? There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil. Frederic Bastiat Believed the purpose of government is to defend the right of an individual to life, liberty, and property.

Why did the Athenians create more money by decreasing gold and silver coin content during the Peloponnesian war? Athenian moneydefined a pattern which was to repeat in other empires which were to follow, dominance of trade, influx of gold to balance exports, public wealth, liberty, overconfidence, the discovery of loosely managed money as a stimulating solution to stagnation in an economy near its zenith, before finally the emptiness of the monetary promise was exposed, leading to rapid national collapse. Paul Tustain Why did the Roman Empire reduce currency size and silver content to increase the quantity of money during war against Hannibal? Beginning in the third century BCE, Roman expansion transformed the capital of other societies into resources for Rome as country after country was conquered and stripped of movable wealth. John Michael Greer Where under the [Roman] Principate the strategy had been to tax the future to pay for the present, the Dominate paid for the present by undermining the futures ability to pay taxes. The Empire emerged from the third century crisis, but at a cost that weakened its ability to meet future crises. Joseph Tainter The Collapse of Complex Societies If some lose their whole fortunes, they will drag many more down with them. the whole system of credit and financehere at Rome is inextricably bound up with the revenues of the Asiatic province. If those revenues are destroyed, our whole system of credit will come down with a crash. The national budget must be balanced. The public debt must be reduced. The arrogance of the authorities must be moderated and controlled. Payments to foreign governments must be reduced if the nation doesn't want to go bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance. Marcus Tullius Cicero Does earn today, spend tomorrow, conflict with borrow to spend today and hope to earn enough tomorrow, or that someone else does?

By the time the great bullion inflow had ended in the mid-seventeenth century, the Spanish crown was deep in debt, with bankruptcies in 1557, 1575 and 1597. The country entered upon a long decline. one might draw a moral: Easy money is bad for you. It represents short-run gain that will be paid for in immediate distortions and later regrets. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations Did Spanish money become worth less after the Emperor borrowed against 100 years of future tax revenue to pay for war against England? Did France execute relatively the same strategy with similar consequences not long after? The great merit of gold is precisely that it is scarce; that its quantity is limited by nature; that it is costly to discover, to mine, and to process; and that it cannot be created by political fiat or caprice. Henry Hazlitt Why did the Continental Congress issue paper money backed by anticipated tax revenues to pay for war against theocratic England? Regardless of the dollar price involved, one ounce of gold would purchase a good-quality man's suit at the conclusion of the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, the presidency of Franklin Roosevelt, and today. Peter A. Burshre If Nathaniel Rothschild accumulated gold, essential for supporting an army upon Napoleons return, in anticipation of an extensive military conflict and rapidly increasing government borrowing, and profitably exchanged relatively high priced gold for lower cost debt in anticipation of sovereign debt stability upon Napoleons defeat at Waterloo in 1815, could current circumstances reflect something like the same thing, only opposite? Now in modern markets, it is striking that exactly the reverseapplies. Governments all over the world are about to flood the bond markets with paper to finance their bank bailouts and economic stimulus plans. governments are about to need to raise the funds to fight another Napoleon. This massive new supply of bonds [could] depress the price of existing bonds. Peter Cooper Seeking Alpha

...the world produces a cube of gold that is about 4.3 meters (about 14 feet)every year. The total amount of gold, ever produced by mankind, is estimated to fill only one-third of the Washington Monument. Tyler Cowen Why did the Legal Tender Act of 1862 authorize paper money, not exchangeable for gold or silver, to finance the Civil War without raising taxes? No State shall make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts. Article I, Section 10, Clause 1 In the late 1860s, central European government supported lenders issued debt for municipal, residential and commercial construction. Amplified tales of profit increased leverage and real estate values, until Britain shifted wheat imports from Central Europe and Russia to lower priced grain from the American Midwest after 1870, followed by other foods, kerosene and livestock. US Economic growth stalled after The Coinage Act of February, 1873 initiated a gold standard by eliminating silver coin production, consequently deflating American money supplies. Viennas stock market crashed in May 1873, causing bank to bank lending declines, loss of confidence, financial distress, and higher interest rates. In September 1873, Jay Cooke & Company, a major component of the United States banking establishment, found itself unable to market several million dollars in Northern Pacific Railway bonds. As Cooke was about to swing a $300 million government loan, reports circulated that his firm's credit had become nearly worthless. On September 18, the firm declared bankruptcy. Wikipedia After speculators built beyond utilization capacity, indebted American railroad related companies began defaulting and US stock markets crashed in late September 1873 as hundreds of banks closed. As unemployment rose, business leaders advocated protectionism as elected officials identified and targeted scapegoats, while the working poor protested, embraced religion, established unions and rioted. Those with enough capital reserves in the aftermath, like Andrew Carnegie and John D Rockefeller, acquired natural resources and bankrupt businesses for substantial discounts.

With the exhaustless reservoir of the Government of the United States furnishing easy money, the sales increase, the businesses enlarge, more new enterprises are started, the spirit of optimism pervades the community. Everyone is making money, everyone is growing rich. It goes up and upuntil finally someone whose judgment was bad, someone whose capacity for business was small, breaks, and as he falls he hits the next brick in the row, and then another and down comes the whole structure. That is what happened to greater or less degree before the panic of 1837, of 1857, of 1873, of 1893 and of 1907. Elihu Root US Senator, Nobel Laureate If Germanys central bank suspended the right to redeem gold backed Reichsmarks during World War I, and 170 Reichsmarks bought an ounce of gold in January 1919, why did an ounce of gold cost 87,000,000,000,000 Reichsmarks in November 1923? Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. Alan Greenspan What caused the Great Depression? The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late, by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a constant demoralizing of business confidence. Alan Greenspan Conceded free-market deregulatory ideology was flawed in October, 2008 Did global financial system disintegration accelerate in September 1931 as news of a breakdown in military discipline triggered capital flight, forcing Britain off the gold standard within five days after a mutiny over pay cuts on four battleships by Royal Navy sailors refusing to leave port? That which has been is that which will be. And that which has been done is that which will be done. Solomon

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There is an element in the readjustment of our financial system, more important than currency, more important than gold, and that is the confidence of the people. Franklin Delano Roosevelt Replaced Herbert Hoover as US President in 1932 after government intervention failed to mitigate The Great Depression Why did the US government impose a ban on US citizens buying, selling or owning gold in 1933 after redemptions led to a 30% decline in paper money supplies, and why did Viet Nam suspend gold imports in 2008? When you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini, and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership in gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money redeemable in gold and the rare prize known as human liberty. Congressman Howard Buffett Warrens Father Why did the United States use its political, economic and military weight to stabilize international trade after World War II by negotiating agreements obligating participating countries not to print more money than directly backed by gold reserves, and to maintain exchange rates within 1% of gold backed US dollars at $35 an ounce? Government spending is the ultimate tax on the economy. Milton Friedman Economic Nobel Laureate Why did John F. Kennedy attempt to bypass the Federal Reserve in 1963 by authorizing silver backed Treasury Certificates? If the Coinage Act of 1965 eliminated silver in quarters and dimes as 190,000 US soldiers deployed to Viet Nam, could war be inflationary? Inflation is one form of taxation that can be imposed without legislation. Milton Friedman Why did the US stop exchanging paper dollars for gold and silver in 1971, after printing more without raising taxes to pay for Vietnam and socialized benefit programs? For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

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The gold standard makes the money's purchasing power independentof political parties and pressure groups. This is not a defect of the gold standard, it is its main excellence. Ludwig von Mises Have American legislators and the Federal Reserve been abusing the dollars status as a reserve currency to avoid overtly raising domestic taxation by covertly taxing US dollar denominated assets like oil and food, by over-printing money?

The decline of great powers is caused by simple economic over extension. Paul Michael Kennedy The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers If the US utilizes deficit spending and monetary inflation to stimulate economic growth, should inflation rise even faster in countries with currency pegs who have to print even more money to keep up with the falling value of the US dollar? Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but quite often, gradually, and almost imperceptibly by the depreciation of their currency through excessive quantity. Nicolas Copernicus Discovered Earth was not the center of the Universe

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Ponzi finance units must increase outstanding debt in order to meet financial obligations. A transition occurs over the course of an expansion as increasingly risky positions are validated by the booming economy that renders the built in margins of error superfluous, encouraging adoption of riskier positions. Eventually, either financing costs rise, or income comes in below expectations, leading to defaults on payment commitments. Hyman Minsky Believed excessive debt causes financial crises If some consider insanity to be doing the same thing repetitively, expecting different outcomes, and the Federal Reserve contributed to the financial crisis by creating short term growth at the expense of long term stability after increasing money supplies after 9/11 while reducing short term interest rates from 6.5% in 2001 to 1% in 2003, why would who want to repeat the same strategies after 2008? By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobservedthe wealth of their citizens. John Maynard Keynes Advocate of fiscal and monetary measures to manage economic highs and lows For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

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If foreign manufacturing and commodity exporters exchange US dollars received for goods with their central banks for increasing supplies of local currency, and an effect of emerging economies printing too much money causes local prices to rise, is there a correlation between the US dollar and inflation in emerging economies, and should the US dollar relatively strengthen as the quantity of less developed currencies expands faster? Do fiat currencies float or fall in value at different rates? If foreign central banks hold large amounts of US dollar denominated assets as the US attempts to inflate, borrow and spend its way out of financial turmoil while not raising taxes or cutting expenses, how could the citizens of other countries respond to their leaders who invested reserves falling in value as dollar denominated staples increase in cost? If theres $50 trillion worth of paper money in all the worlds currencies, and the US money supply falls as debt is destroyed faster than the US government can create money to stabilize the financial system, while emerging market economies create money to buy US dollars from exporters to convert into US currency to purchase dollar denominated imports to pay down debt or buy oil and food, what should the price of gold do in what denominations? Did the leaders of most emerging economies essentially steal their citizens savings, by lending to developed economies to keep currency exchange and interest rates low, to encourage more sales of inexpensive manufactured goods? If the developed world is engaged in widespread fiat money creation did many emerging economies get stuck with IOUs that are now worth less? If foreign manufacturing and commodity exporters exchange US dollars received for goods with their central banks for increasing supplies of local currency, and an effect of emerging economies printing too much money causes local prices to rise, is there a correlation between the US dollar and inflation in emerging economies? Has hyperinflation ever coincided with falling home prices? Could the US dollar strengthen if the quantity of other currencies expand faster? Are taxes rising or falling if workers, savers and investors are exposed to inflationary capital confiscation? For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

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...Secrecy, except in very select military matters, is repugnant to the health of a democratic government, and is almost always a means to conceal a fraud. Economics will not provide any answers in and of itself. Economics without an a priori policy and morality, without a guiding principle like the Constitution, is a heartless monster easily manipulated to say whatever one wishes it to say, if they are willing to pay enough economists to say it. Its reputation as a science is greatly exaggerated. Efficient markets hypothesis is almost as great a hoax as the benefits of globalization and 'free trade' have been to the American people as a whole. These things are promoted by the few, at the expense of the gullible many, for their own personal benefit. ...what greater task can we set ourselves to, other than justice and freedom for ourselves and children? Jesse's American Caf What could some unintended consequences be if the European, US, and other central banks intentionally inflate money supplies to subsidize short term spending, debt and deficits? Why would some oil exporters become reluctant to accept relatively lower prices if the US federal government continues to amass unsustainable budget deficits? We should consider ourselves unauthorized to saddle posterity with our debts and morally bound to pay them ourselves Each generation has the right by will of its majority to bind themselves but none to bind the succeeding generation Thomas Jefferson Under a shared common currency, can a Eurozone member like Greece, or an American state like California, inflate out of excessive spending and debt? If the EU continues to bail out Greece, Ireland and Portugal etc can the Euro retain credibility as commodity prices spike? As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. If moderation is a fault then indifference is a crime. Jack Kerouac If cut off from credit markets and in danger of default, could some emerging countries inflate currencies to maintain debt and spending to keep up with US and European printing?

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Political Ethics
The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge. Stephen Hawking How many voters can afford to give more than $1,000 to political candidates, and what proportion of the population and contributions do they represent? If it could be better to pay a little bit more than you thought than a lot less than you should, should most be very careful when another who could profit if you buy something says: Sometimes its better to pay a little bit more than you thought than a lot less than you should? Did corruption of the political, capitalist and information systems negatively influence economic performance and consumer behavior through legislation, budget appropriation, regulation and taxation, to benefit a few at the expense of many? Why do most who argue the relatively wealthy pay more taxes than most as a percentage of income, exclude Social Security, Medicare and other federal, state and local income, sales, property, toll road, license, permit, communications, entertainment, fuel, transportation and utility ecttaxes? What % of income does who really pay? A government which robs Peter to pay Paul, can always depend on the support of Paul. George Bernard Shaw Does the advertising industry spend hundreds of billions per year, convincing consumers to borrow and spend money they dont have, to buy a lot of what they dont need? Competition always tends to bring about the most economical and efficient method of production. Those who are most successful in this competition will acquire more capital to increase their production still further. Those who are least successful will be forced out of the field. So capitalist production tends to constantly be drawn in the hands of the most efficient. Henry Hazlitt Libertarian philosopher, economist and journalist At what point do those who promote and/or vote for ever increasing sums of government backed debt to finance what may not be necessities bequeath an unsustainable burden on the future incomes of the communitys young?

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Is random chaos replaced with imposed stability pushing on a string? Can special interest groups manipulate consumer behavior by influencing government with campaign contributions? If borrowing to pay for tax cuts help an economy in the short run, do unpaid for tax cuts retard growth in the long run? An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics. Plutarch Should higher interest rates and inflation correlated to tax cuts and increased borrowing, eventually reduce tax revenue following short term economic growth? What would happen to real estate prices if the mortgage deduction were eliminated? Civilization is unbearable, but it is less unbearable at the top. Timothy Leary If sovereign and municipal credit markets tighten, how could unemployment and business profitability be affected if Greece, some other relatively weak European countries and some US states implement severe budget cutbacks and tax increases to balance budget deficits? Could deleveraging in developed countries cause some over-indebted customers to import less from lower wage paying emerging markets? Is liberty dependent on limits on some to provide minimal rights for others? Should US companies sheltering taxes off-shore be eligible for US government contracts? What of those who outsourced a majority of their labor to foreign workers? There are two types of problems, mine, and not mine. Yours is of the latter variety. Unknown Could many who believe the government should pledge everyones childrens future income to prevent the failure of insolvent businesses be indirectly advocating a political system other than capitalistic democracy? Would you invest in a company whose business you disapprove, if there was a good chance of doubling your money? Should Americans use food crops for bio-fuel, if scarcity increases?

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At the end of every seven years thou shalt make a release. ...every creditor shall release that which he hath lent unto his neighbor... Deuteronomy 15 Could some who follow accounting dissimilarities take advantage of relative unawareness, prior to collective realization? Could some CPAs do what they dont want to get what they think they need? Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. John Maynard Keynes

Economics, Debt & Statistics

Can some promoting erroneous concepts believe self-created illusions? Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. Mark Twain If more money was withdrawn than invested in US equity products during 2009, coincident with record new and secondary stock offerings, amid the least amount of corporate stock buybacks and the most insider selling in recent history, where did the assets needed to recover trillions of US financial market capitalization and borrowings by the US Treasury come from? We cannot identify the source of the new money that pushed stock prices up so far so fast," [TrimTabs Investment Research CEO] Charles Biderman said The source of approximately $600 billion net new cash necessary to lift the market's overall capitalization by $6 trillion last year, could not be identified by TrimTabs The money, he said, didn't come from traditional players Nick Godt MarketWatch, January 5, 2010 If 5.5% unemployment in 2004 would have been reported as ~12.5% in 1980, why did some want to change reported unemployment, and why would some not want to disclose comparative disparities? If $1,000 invested in stocks made ~$7,910 between 1984 and 2002, but the average investor only made about $660, can some things not matter until they do, even it they do while most think they dont? Should investment propaganda touting 10.01% returns by staying invested, and average annual 1.6% returns when missing the 40 best days, include the 20.69% gains when missing the worst 40 days?

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(a) A CPA shall not engage in conduct discreditable to the accounting profession. (b) Prohibited Discreditable Conduct. Discreditable conduct includes but is not limited to: (1) acts that reflect adversely on the CPA's honesty, integrity, trustworthiness, good moral character, or fitness as a CPA in other respects; Was March 2008 inflation, which may have been reported as 7.3% before 1998, and 11.6% before 1983, reported to be 4%? (2) stating or implying an ability to improperly influence a governmental agency or official; Why do many believe corporate control of political institutions and mainstream information dissemination channels negatively influence free market capitalism and economic performance through legislation, budget appropriation, regulation and taxation loopholes to benefit a few at the expense of many? (3) failing to comply with any order issued by the Board; or (4) failing to fulfill the terms of a peer review engagement contract. 21 ncac 08n .0203 DISCREDITABLE CONDUCT PROHIBITED Is accounting an art, a science, or a language? The reliance of the public and the business community on sound financial reporting and advice on business affairs imposes on the accounting profession an obligation to maintain high standards of technical competence, morality, and integrity. If very few US corporations pay a 35% tax rate and 25% of companies with annual sales of at least $50,000,000 paid no federal income taxes in 2005 why do many who argue for corporate tax cuts cite 35% corporate tax rates? To this end, a CPA shall at all times maintain independence of thought and action, hold the affairs of clients in strict confidence, strive continuously to improve professional skills, observe generally accepted accounting principles and standards, promote sound and informative financial reporting, uphold the dignity and honor of the accounting profession, and maintain high standards of personal conduct. 21 NCAC 08N .0201 INTEGRITY Have you ever done something legal that you thought was wrong? Would a Messiah consider state controlled and promoted lotteries a tax on the poor?

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If there a correlation between homebuilding, profitability, employment and recessions, why have financial markets recovered while the real estate market didnt?

Is long term unemployment falling because there are more jobs, or are many losing long term unemployment benefits?

If the US population was ~230 million in 1982 and ~311 million in 2011, and New Housing Permits fell and Unemployment rose more, could current economic circumstances be relatively worse than they look?

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Credit levels will need to double over the next 10 years, growing by $103 trillion to support consensus-projected economic growth. 2011 World Economic Forum Who is expected to supply how much money from where for state, municipal, equity, real estate and corporate investments, if the world needs to borrow more than $10 trillion per year over the next decade?

government borrowing so lightly, encourages the government to spend freely and to promote more and more governmental activities. the result will be more and more restricted, and that ultimately the totalitarian state may emerge. Fred Rogers Fairchild If economic growth is dependent on liquidity supplied by new and existing investors and rising financial markets, what should happen if incoming investment slows and lack of liquidity creates a confidence crisis? There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought on by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of abandonment of credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Ludwig von Mises Should there be more or less crime and/or social unrest in the next 12 to 24 months?

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How many American citizens are aware of their countrys actual financial condition? Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the national debt. Herbert Hoover If The 2007 Citizen's Guide to the Financial Report of the US Government, said the Government is on an unsustainable fiscal path, before the 2008 financial crisis, what about now?

Debt is the fatal disease of republics, the first thing and the mightiest to undermine governments and corrupt the people. Wendell Phillips Debts are fun when you are acquiring them, but none are fun when you set about retiring them. Ogden Nash

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Did increasing supplies of money, fossil fuel and food contribute to Earths human population rising from 1.6 billion at the beginning of the 20th century, to more than 6.8 billion in a little more than 100 years?

Peak
The economy is a wholly-owned subsidiary of the environment, not the other way around. Gaylord Nelson If Gazelles need water and grass, and Cheetahs need water and Gazelles, and an abundance of sustenance leads to more Gazelles, should more Gazelles and water lead to more Cheetahs? If too many Gazelles relative to water and grass lead to fewer Gazelles, do fewer Gazelles = fewer Cheetahs? Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence only increases in an arithmetical ratio. Thomas Robert Malthus Suggested populations could increase faster than food supplies Why have so many people shown up in the last 250 years? 10,000 BC 8000 BC 6000 BC 4000 BC 2000 BC 1 1750 1900 2000 2005 2008 6/16/2011 1,000,000 5,000,000 x5 in 2,000 years 10,000,000 x2 20,000,000 x2 +10,000,000 in 2000 years 35,000,000 x1.5 200,000,000 x5.7 791,000,000 x3.95 in 1750 years 1,650,000,000 6,070,581,000 x30.35 in 2000 years 6,453,628,000 +383,047,000 in 5 years 6,700,000,000 x33.5 in 2008 years 6,925,250,913 +854,669,913 in 11 years

Why did hunting, agriculture, herding and migration develop only after too many began competing for declining food supplies? If water was money and grass was credit and Cheetahs and Gazelles were people, who would be who? It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. Charles Darwin

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A long view of human history reveals not regular change but spasmodic, catastrophic disruptions followed by long periods of reinvention and development. there are long periods of ruinous reversal, followed by slow recovery and the restoration of lost potential. Buzz Holling Are we consuming more than Earths ecosystem can replenish? Why is food production slowing down? ...recent data from FAO shows a pretty rapid slowdown in productivity growth. The price spike in 2008 occurred in a particularly bad year in which yields declined on a worldwide basis In 2009, all four of the majors saw yield declines, something that hasn't happened since 1974. 2010 couldn't have been much better and was probably worse, given how bad things were in the U.S, the world's largest producer and exporter (worldwide data for 2010 isn't available yet). The yield slowdown comes at a particularly unfortunate time, with accelerating demand from emerging economies like China ...we need productivity growth to accelerate considerably to keep up with projected demand growth. FAO says we need 70 percent higher yields by 2050. ...Maybe it's just bad luck with the weather. But I think it just may be a longer run phenomenon. Michael Roberts Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics North Carolina State University Is there a correlation between global temperature, population and fossil fuel consumption rising three times as fast in the last 30 years than the preceding 70? If every new beginning is another beginnings end, wheres the middle? Think of the Earth as a living organismbeing attacked by billions of bacteria, whose numbers double every forty years. Gore Vidal If arable land, fresh water, irrigation, genetically modified seed modern equipment, pesticides and fertilizers convert fossil fuel into enough food to keep pace with population growth, is the populace dependent on ever increasing supplies of finite resources?

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If resource consumption, food production, population, money supply and temperature, all rose faster in the last 50 years than the preceding 5,000, are we consuming more than replenishing? Would Earths natural resources last twice as long if there were half as many people? The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization. Ralph Waldo Emerson If mold continues to multiply after eating half a piece of cheese, what happens when demand exceeds supply? If were the mold and Earth is the cheese, how many need and/or want how much, where is half way, whos got whats left, who gets cut off when, who will compete with who for whats left, and how is who most likely to win? The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency, the second is war. Ernest Hemingway Can mold collectively prevent the procreation of a larger generation that cant be fed by the remaining cheese? Are there correlations between currency, debt, natural resources, peace and war? All who surrender will be spared, whoever does not surrender but opposes with struggle and dissension shall be annihilated. Genghis Khan If ~20% of the worlds population uses about 80% of global energy production, do most with less want more? If theres only so much oil and unlimited currency production capacity, could energy demand exceeding supply ignite inflation? Without petroleum, we will not be able to feed the global population. Robert L Hickerson If 2008 was the first year the billions of people in China, India, Russia and the Middle East consumed more oil than the millions in the US, what should happen when cheese demand exceeds supply? Why did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor? War is cruelty. The crueler it is the sooner it's over. General William Tecumseh Sherman Employed "scorched earth" tactics against the Confederacy

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Why did Hitler invade Russia? Why was Mohammad Mosaddeq overthrown in Iran? By some estimates there will be an average of 2% annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with conservatively a 3% natural decline in production from existing reserves. Richard Bruce Cheney Why did America liberate Iraq? Why do survivors survive? I don't have a clue of what weapons will be used in World War III, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. Albert Einstein What could happen if international financial transactions become denominated in assets other than US dollars, and Federal Reserve Note supplies exceed demand? Are there times when compromise isnt appropriate? If one day the world's largest oil producers demanded Euros for their barrels, it would be the financial equivalent of a nuclear strike. Bill O'Grady If technological civilization advanced more in the last 10,000 years than the previous 1,000,000, the last 1,000 than the preceding 10,000, and the last 100 than the prior 1,000 and the last 10 compared to the last 100, what could happen if many come to believe Earths population is unsustainable? I don't care if I follow your rules, if you can cheat, so can I. I won't let you beat me unfairly, I'll beat you unfairly first. Ender Wiggin Fictional Military Strategist What do you do if you possess a brief case that may contain either $0 or $1,000,000, and are offered $200,000 for the case? What if the majority of a civilization collectively chose the case and lost, but dont know? We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality. Ayn Rand Should you do what you need to whether you like it or not, sooner than later?

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It would indeed be a tragedy if the history of the human race proved to be nothing more than the story of an ape playing with a box of matches on a petrol dump. David Ormsby Gore If US mainland oil discovery peaked in the 1930s, leading to a production peak in the early 1970s, and world discovery peaked in the 1960s, when should global oil production peak? If a country needs more oil and food, will they print more money and/or act with force to get more? Men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all the other alternatives. Abba Eban If a slowing economy forces Americans to increase the use of mass transit and car pooling should auto sales suffer? How about home sales in distant suburbs? Why would oil producers want to inflame geopolitical tensions when oil prices fall? history shows that most human civilizations over-extend the growth phase of their adaptive cycle, so they eventually suffer deep collapse. Thomas F. Homer-Dixon If youre going to grow stuff in your yard should some of it be edible? If the supply of arable land fell from more than 1 acre of cropland per person in the 1960s to about 1/2 an acre now? Our lifetime may be the last that will be lived out in a technological society. Isaac Asimov Could food production fall if tightened and more expensive credit limits the ability of food producers to finance machinery, energy, seed, water and fertilizer? If high energy prices and unavailable credit destroy demand, could costs fall and production plateau or decline for longer than some think? The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered. is this something you should be worried about? Advertisement

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If the second law of thermodynamics means concentrated pockets of energy in isolated systems, like Earth even out over time, where and what on Earth is more or less concentrated, and how fast is what evening out?

the supply-demand fundamentals seem consistent with the view that the days of persistently cheap oil and natural gas are likely behind us. Ben Bernanke Why were the worst recessions since WWII correlated to higher energy prices? If energy prices spiked in October 1973 after OPEC declared an oil embargo against countries supporting Israel and in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution why did oil prices rise and fall in 2008 without major supply disruptions? Ill tell you what war is all about. Youve got to kill people, and when youve killed enough, they stop fighting. General Curtis LeMay What happens when linear food production cant keep pace with exponential population growth? If more money and energy equals more food, and more food equals more people, will less fossil fuel lead to less food and?

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Can the consumption of what you need eliminate anothers? Is violence the last refuge of the incompetent? Change means movement. Movement means friction. Only in the frictionless vacuum of a nonexistent abstract world can movement or change occur without that abrasive friction of conflict.

Saul Etc
Did social disturbances, protests and civil unrest follow food price increases before Chinas Tiananmen Square protests? Do what you can with what you have and clothe it with moral garments. If money and energy equals sustenance, what could happen to Chinas ability to feed its people if it cant increase employment? What could the average American in 2111 think of the consumption habits of the average American in 2011? Life is a corrupting process from the time a child learns to play his mother off against his father in the politics of when to go to bed. He who fears corruption fears life. What could happen if many without food, water or energy want the few who have to share? What could happen if theres enough food but many cant afford it, or some relatively unstable governments cant provide it? Only seven meals separate civilization from potential anarchy. Josette Sheeran, UN World Food Program A racially integrated community is a chronological term timed from the entrance of the first black family to the exit of the last white family. How do many battle a few who cant be assaulted with force? The means-and-ends moralists, constantly obsessed with the ethics of the means used by the Have-Nots against the Haves, should search themselves as to their real political position. In fact, they are passive but real allies of the Haves. The most unethical of all means is the non-use of any means... judgment must be rooted in the whys and wherefores of life as it is lived, the world as it is, not our wished-for fantasy of the world as it should be....

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Could some have to do what they dont want to get what they need? Success or failure is a mighty determinant of ethics. Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have. Is population proportional to need supplies? Tactics mean doing what you can with what you have. Once you accept your own death, all of a sudden you're free to live. You no longer care about your reputation. You no longer care except so far as your life can be used tactically to promote a cause you believe in. If food riots and societal unrest precipitated economic turmoil in 2007-8, why hasnt the fall of autocracy in Tunisia, mass protests in Egypt, Yemen, Algeria, Jordan, Mauritania over high unemployment and rising sustenance costs adversely effected financial markets in 2011? (written before August, 2011) Can the definition of civilized change? What we are witnessing is the collapse of the Arab state. Wherever we look across the Arab world we see wars. We see civil wars; wars among ethnicities; wars among sects; and wars among authorities, sects, ethnicities and the poor. it looks as if we are going to witness for years and maybe decades to come a great deal of devastation, destruction and killing. Alfadel Chalak Safir, Lebanese News Paper If ~10% of Americas, about 30% of Chinas, and more than 60% of sub-Saharan Africas income is spent on food, where would social disharmonies begin when sustenance prices increase? Did shortages of arable land and food coincide with many Rwandan Hutus eliminating many Tutsis? You're captives of a civilizational system that more or less compels you to go on destroying the world in order to live. Daniel Quinn Postulated correlations between population growth and natural resource consumption

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If some emerging market autocratic economies fall like dominoes, with former dictators and cronies transferring gold etc away from instability, while large, relatively younger populations descend into more chaotic times, why hasnt the credibility of emerging market currencies and debt declined more? Does food price inflation cause social instability? We must remember that the Russian Revolution of 1917 that ended with the Bolsheviks taking control of St. Petersburg began with an uprising in 1905 when hungry peasants came peacefully to see their Czar to ask for food only to be met by Cossack bullets and the death of several hundred Dennis Gartman If need is sustenance and a temperate climate, should you not do what you dont want done to you unless you need to? Do some who want many to believe the causes of high gas prices are other than the actual reasons gas prices are so high? The first step in community organization is community disorganization. The disruption of the present organization is the first step toward community organization. Present arrangements must be disorganized if they are to be displaced by new patterns. All change means disorganization of the old and organization of the new. If Gandhi didnt oppose the use of force in Kashmir after Indias independence would he have advocated violent resistance against British occupation if he had had an arsenal and a trained army? What could some consequences be for some emerging markets who became over-dependent on profligate US consumption? First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win. Mohandas K. Gandhi Would you rather have an enemy you know or dont? If the US doesnt like Cuba, Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezuela why do we like Saudi Arabia, China, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain? The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition. It is this unceasing pressure that results in the reactions from the opposition that are essential for the success of the campaign. Change comes from power, and power comes from organization.

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Ridicule is man's most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counteract ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, which then reacts to your advantage. Should American political and economic leadership be held accountable for what their conduct has wrought that our warriors fight and die to protect? Did America build up military power as it strengthened economic power while its industrial base moved overseas to use near slave-labor paid for with printed money? ...stir up dissatisfaction and discontent ...create a mechanism that can drain off the underlying guilt for having accepted the previous situation for so long a time. If hiring illegal aliens increases business profitability at the expense of legal workers have low skilled immigrant workers lowered poorly educated Americans income? The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. Keep the pressure on, with different tactics and actions, and utilize all events of the period for your purpose. Do most climate scientists think global warming is caused by human actions? The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself. We must believe that it is the darkest before the dawn of a beautiful new world. We will see it when we believe it. A conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if it does not lose. Henry Kissinger Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules. Stop quoting laws to us. We carry swords. Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus Moral rationalization is indispensable at all times of action, whether to justify the selection or the use of ends or means. All effective actions require the passport of morality. Virtue is persecuted more by the wicked than it is loved by the good. Buddha

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Think, Need, Want & Happiness

I doubt, therefore I think, therefore I am. Ren Descartes You were who you think you were. You are what you think you are. If some of what will, can, cant or wont change, you may or may not be who you think youll be. You may not know some of what you think you know. Egotism is the anesthetic that dulls the pain of stupidity. Frank Leahy Some of what you know, you dont know you know. What you dont know you dont know is more than you think. When I was a boy of fourteen, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much he had learned in seven years. Mark Twain If what you think effects what you do, which effects what you and others think afterwards, and what others do effects what you think, which effects etc, think before do should get farther faster with less risk, than do before think. What others think was, is and may, might not be what you do. A great many people think they are thinking when they are really rearranging their prejudices. Edward R. Murrow If thought is both logical and emotional, what you do is too. You didnt, dont or will think everything you could, should or shouldnt. Of what you think did, didnt or is, some are more likely than others. If some falsely told they were to receive more pain than they actually did described more than administered, and others given more pain than led to expect thought it was less, can some of what you believe to be true, be true to you, until you think otherwise? Youll benefit from contributed causes, or be deterred by imposed effects. If not thinking isnt, and its not about what couldve been or what may someday, is it about what you think and do now?

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If life needs sustenance and a temperate climate, is want everything else? Is attachment suffering? Fill your bowl to the brim and it will spill, keep sharpening your knife and it will blunt, chase after money and security and your heart will never unclench, care about people's approval and you will be their prisoner. Tao Te Ching Are you as happy as you think? Does what you think determine how you feel? We are never so happy nor so unhappy as we imagine. La Rochefoucauld If positive thought outperforms negative, can faith in open doors be better than fearing them closed? Is feeling 44 years young better than 44 years old? If you want to be happy, be. Leo Tolstoy Are those who fail as unhappy as feared? Are those who achieve as happy as expected? Lives based on having are less free than lives based either on doing or on being. William James Could living for the moment be the only way to live happily ever after? Do you already have everything you want if you choose to think so? A man never feels the want of what it never occurs to him to ask for. Arthur Schopenhauer Can want be eliminating unneeded? If non-material want can provide a high quality of life, while material want doesnt necessarily create happiness, is it better to be miserable with a high standard of living than unhappy and poor? People who have what they want are fond of telling people who haven't what they want, that they really don't want it. Ogden Nash

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Think = Chess
A metaphor. If there are 9,183,421,888 ways to play the first nine moves, 9,417,681 the first six, 72,078 the first four, 5,362 the first three, and 20 to play the first, are early moves more important than later? Life is a kind of chess in which we have often points to gain, competitors or adversaries to contend with, and in which there is a vast variety of good and ill events By playing at chesswe may learn foresight, circumspection and caution. Benjamin Franklin The more captured opposing pieces the less risk, and vice versa. Does the player who doesnt make the last mistake usually win? After the game, the king and pawn go into the same box. Italian proverb Is chess non-violent war? Do some football running backs fake left and go right to intentionally mislead the defense into committing energy and mass in the wrong direction? All warfare is based on deception. when able to attack we must seem unable, when using our forces we must seem inactive, when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far, when far away, we must make him believe we are near. Sun Tzu If nothing doesnt change, you cant start over. If an opponents position can be used against them and the pinnacle of vulnerability is the moment of assault, should attack commence from defended positions? If your attack is going too well, you have walked into an ambush. Infantry Journal If life is a room of open doors leading to other open doors, do what you and/or others do or dont determine what doors stay open or lock you in or out? There may be less risk and greater return in learning from other peoples experience, before having to learn from your own.

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Whoever has his foe at his mercy and does not kill him is his own enemy. Shaikh Sadi Shirazi What do you do in a battle in which you die if you dont fight or lose? Are chances better for players who more accurately calculate probabilities the farthest into the future? Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Napoleon Bonaparte If every move is followed by a counter move, and every cause, action or winner has an effect, reaction or loser, can one bad move erase a hundred good, and one good one win? If the worst players identity is unknown, could it be you? People do not like to think. If one thinks, one must reach conclusions. Conclusions are not always pleasant. Helen Keller Should strategy be merciless if a pawn can become a queen, weakness can become and overcome strength, and defense is offense? What do you do with your bayonet after you and your opponent shoot the last bullets and miss at 3 yards? Rejoice not at your enemy's fall, but don't pick him up either. Yiddish proverb Should you do to others what you would want them to do to you, unless you need not to? If it can be good to find what not to think, unless youre wrong, and an offensive move doesnt look advantageous, should defenses be reinforced instead? My opinions will never change, no matter what the facts are. Steven Colbert Does increasing risk when odds are good lower subsequent risk? Most of the time, is thinking youre better than you are better than thinking youre worse? Who is the rich person? The one who is happy with what he has. Jewish proverb

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All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others. George Orwell Known and unknown, you were, are and will be pieces of varying value in an infinite number of games. You may or may not be playing the games you think. The chess board is the world, the pieces are the phenomena of the universe, the rules of the game are what we call the laws of nature, the player on the other side is hidden from us. Thomas Huxley Are the only two certainties that there are at least two players, you and everything thats not?

Think Chess & Cognitive Dissonance

The great majority of mankind are satisfied with appearance as though they were realities, and are often more influenced by the things that seem than those that are. Niccolo Machiavelli Is whats happening, happening or what you tell yourself is happening? When you recall, are you remembering, or are you remembering the last memory of a recollection? The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing. Socrates Is yesterday a certainty, if the past is dependent on the present? Is what you used to look like what you see in a mirror? Things are not what they appear to be, nor are they otherwise. Buddha Is the present a place youve never been? Is present experience relative to the past or memories of the past? We are never deceived; we but deceive ourselves. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe Is what you remember usually better or worse than what actually happened? Is thinking rehearsing?

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Can what you think may be turn out more like what you thought, even if it doesnt? Do some things look better from farther away than up close? What if everything is an illusion and nothing exists? In that case, I definitely overpaid for my carpet. Woody Allen Can observation alter the observed? What if what you think isnt? That which is one is one. That which is not one is also one. Chaing Tzu If nothing doesnt change, is remaining stationary optional? If you cant necessarily control your pieces, can you be obliged to move and/or sacrifice when you dont want to? Whatever failures I have known, whatever errors I have committed, whatever follies I have witnessed, have been the consequence of action without thought. Bernard Baruch American financier, and presidential advisor If players dont necessarily follow the same rules which can change without everyone knowing, should you break rules if your opponent does? If big print can give what fine print takes, can winning the wrong game lose the right one? Everybody sooner or later sits down to a banquet of consequences. Robert Louis Stevenson If opponents dont begin with pieces of the same number and value, and players can think theyre winning when losing, can influencing others thoughts enhance results, and vice versa? If an opponent thinks you have more influence and power, do you? An imaginary ailment is worse than a disease. Yiddish proverb The more competitors there are the harder it is to win.

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Has everything happened the way you think? You are so intent that you believe only what you believe that you believe, that you remain utterly blind to what you really believe without believing that you believe it. Orson Scott Card Would you rather be happy or know?

Communication Ethics
You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes. Morpheus, The Matrix If there were thousands of relatively independent media companies in the mid 1900s, ~50 by the 1980s, and less than 10 after 2000, mostly owned by conglomerates with conflicting interests dependent on legislative initiatives for regulatory concerns and advertisers and political campaigns for profit, is most mainstream information relatively more objective or less? Power in Americais control of the means of communication. Theodore White Political Journalist Did the founding fathers want the communications industry to keep an eye on the government for the people or an eye on the people for the government? Were white northern college students enlisted for voter registration drives, only after murders of black civil rights volunteers went relatively unreported by law enforcement and news organizations? Without an informed and free press, there cannot be an enlightened people. Justice Potter Stewart Is an independent press essential to capitalistic democracy? Why is journalism the only profession explicitly protected by the US Constitution? Were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers or newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter. Information is the currency of democracy. Thomas Jefferson

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The world is ruled only by consideration of advantages. Friedrich von Schiller Is what you think others think what theyre thinking, or what they and/or some others want you to think theyre thinking? Are the less informed easier to persuade than the more? Freedom of the press is guaranteed only to those who own one. A J Liebling Can some believe what isn't, or refuse to believe what is? Are you certain youve not been conditioned to think certain thoughts? Aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it dsenot mtaetr in waht oerdr the ltteres in a wrod are, the olny iproamtnt tihng is taht the frsit and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it whotuit a pboerlm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Should news outlets intentionally misrepresent truth in the interests of national security? Do the few who control dissemination of most financial and political information, enjoy relatively disproportionate levels of influence than the many who dont? The Ministry of Peace concerns itself with war, the Ministry of Truth with lies, the Ministry of Love with torture, and the Ministry of Plenty with starvation. These contradictions are not accidental, nor do they result from ordinary hypocrisy. They are deliberate exercises in doublethink. George Orwell Can business and/or political interests negatively affect investigative journalism, by sheltering some from inhospitable exposure while simultaneously disparaging opponents? Why would the news industry want elections to appear to be closer than they are? The partisan, when engaged in a dispute, cares nothing about the rights of the question, but is anxious only to convince his hearers of his own assertions. Plato

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You shall not bear false witness against your neighbor. Exodus 20:13 (a) A CPA shall not engage in deceptive conduct. Deception includes fraud or misrepresentation and representations or omissions which a CPA either knows or should know have a capacity or tendency to deceive. Dont say youre going to do something and not do it. Deceptive conduct is prohibited whether or not anyone has been actually deceived. (b) Prohibited Deception. Prohibited conduct under this Section includes but is not limited to deception in: (1) obtaining or maintaining employment; (2) obtaining or keeping clients; (3) obtaining or maintaining certification, retired status, or exemption from peer review; (4) reporting CPE credits; Dont lie, say more than do, boast, obfuscate, or say you can if you cant. (5) certifying the character or experience of exam or certificate applicants; (6) implying abilities not supported by education, professional attainments, or licensing recognition; (7) asserting that services or products sold in connection with use of the CPA title are of a particular quality or standard when they are not; (8) creating false or unjustified expectations of favorable results; If some financial estimates and hypothetical illustrations assume perpetual levels of varying data, can proprietary valuation measures for financial statements be manipulated? (9) using or permitting another to use the CPA title in a form of business not permitted by the accountancy laws or rules; (10) permitting anyone not certified in this state (including one licensed in another state) to unlawfully use the CPA title in this state or to unlawfully operate as a CPA firm in this state; or You shall not raise a false report Exodus 23:1 (11) falsifying a review, report, or any required program or checklist of any peer review program. 21 ncac 08n .0202 DECEPTIVE CONDUCT PROHIBITED

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If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers. Thomas Pynchon Do some think many know more than they ought to? Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. Aldous Huxley Is the delivery of consumers to merchants the objective of for-profit television? Should news stories conceal correlations to advertiser or parent company profit? Does freedom of the press include what advertisers and/or powerful political interests object to? Why would some mainstream media personalities criticize policy positions of some, while receiving undisclosed and/or indirect compensation from others interested in non-attributed dissention? Is it more profitable for news outlets to report inexpensive solutions to common problems, or relatively expensive answers espoused by advertisers? It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it. Upton Sinclair If a few multinational corporations own an overwhelming majority of newspapers, magazines, news channels, radio stations, book publishers and business information sources, what are the chances of an investigative journalist publishing a negative story on a sister subsidiary, or on a subsidiary of another company that could retaliate in kind? Should some financial pundits who dont, disclose relevant conflicts of interest? People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public... I have never known much good done by those who affected to trade for the public good. Adam Smith any economist will tell you that when the free market fails a black market emerges. The blogs are the black market of information. David B. Collum Cornell

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Statements by high officials are practically always misleading, when they are designed to bolster a falling market. Gerald M. Loeb Why are rising financial markets in the best interests of whom and/or of the business information industry? If mass media companies know how much capital political candidates raise, could profits be enhanced by targeting news coverage to influence campaign advertising money flows? The beauty of the democratic systems of thought control as contrasted with their clumsy totalitarian counterparts, is that they operate by subtly establishing on a voluntary basis, aided by the force of nationalism and media control by substantial interests, presuppositions that set the limits of debate rather than by imposing beliefs with a bludgeon. Then let the debate rage, the more lively and vigorous it is, the better the propaganda system is served Those who do not accept the fundamental principles of state propaganda, are simply excluded from the debate. (or if noticed, dismissed as "emotional," "irresponsible," etc) Noam Chomsky Should mass media companies and/or regulatory authorities publicly report political advertising revenue, relative to proportionality of campaign coverage? Lying by omission One lies by omission by omitting an important fact, deliberately leaving another person with a misconception. Lying by omission includes failures to correct pre-existing misconceptions. Propaganda is an example of lying by omission. Wikipedia Every thing secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show it can bear discussion and publicity. Lord Acton If you choose not to know something, especially if that something is something you should know, you are morally blameworthy. Robert P. Lawry Director of the Center for Professional Ethics Are the most convincing lies mostly true? It's not a lie if you believe it. George Costanza

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Whats the most courageous thing youve ever done? (a) Nondisclosure. A CPA shall not disclose any confidential information obtained in the course of employment or a professional engagement except with the consent of the employer or client. (b) Exceptions. This Rule shall not be construed: (2) to affect in any way the CPA's compliance with a validly issued subpoena or summons enforceable by this Board or by order of a court; or (3) to preclude the CPA from responding to any inquiry made by the AICPA Ethics Division or Trial Board, by a duly constituted investigative or disciplinary body of a state CPA society, or under state statutes; or (4) to preclude the disclosure of confidential client information necessary for the peer review process or for any quality review program; or (5) to preclude the CPA from assisting the Board in enforcing the accountancy statutes and rules; or (6) to affect a CPA's disclosure of confidential information to state or federal authorities when the CPA concludes in good faith based upon professional judgment that a crime is being or is likely to be committed; or (7) to affect a CPA's disclosure of confidential information when such disclosure is required by state or federal laws or regulations. 21 ncac 08n .0205 CONFIDENTIALITY Have you ever traded in a car and didnt tell the dealership what was wrong with it? If short term taxpayer subsidies and lax accounting rules boost economic growth, what could some long term unintended consequences be? Should accounting rule adjustments designed to fix large, complex predicaments, rely on many who created and profited from the initial problems, who may not have wanted to identify and confront them when they were small, relatively unknown and lucrative? Can law and morality unreasonably rationalize the status quo? Can some promoting erroneous concepts believe self-created illusions? Could some unpunished and unfixed unethical accounting practices rewarded with government bailouts provide incentives for excessive risk taking after financial markets stabilize? Should some accounting ethics rules have an expiration date? What scares you the most about the future of your profession?

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If you once forfeit the confidence of your fellow citizens, you can never regain their respect and esteem. It is true that you may fool all of the people some of the time, you can even fool some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time. Abraham Lincoln Can truth be a casualty of social instability? Without censorship, things can get terribly confused in the public mind. William Westmoreland American military commander, Vietnam, 1964 - 1968 US Army Chief of Staff, 1968 - 1972 Does thinking you understand what another says mean you hear what they mean? Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past. George Orwell Is an untruth disseminated as true a lie if the truth remains unfound through incuriosity? That an opinion has been widely held, is no evidence whatever that it is not utterly absurd. Bertrand Russell Is there a correlation between behavior and information consumption? He who wishes to deceive will never fail to find willing dupes. Niccolo Machiavelli Why would a counterespionage agency arrest an economist for bad-mouthing the stability of a banking system and currency? Should information be evaluated by origin and relative legitimacy? Our dominant media are ultimately accountable only to corporate boards whose mission is not life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness for the whole body of our republic, but the aggrandizement of corporate executives and shareholders. National Media Reform Conference Media Bias Largely Unseen in US Presidential Race. News Company Post-Election Headline It is the absolute right of the state to supervise the formation of public opinion. Paul Joseph Goebbels

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If you don't read the newspaper, you are uninformed. If you do read the newspaper, you are misinformed. Mark Twain Can repetition create truth? All that was needed was an unending series of victories over your own memory. George Orwell Can thought be controlled by repeating positive messages, while underreporting negative, and vice versa? Men think in herds, it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one. Charles Mackay With a little help, can most convince themselves of just about anything? Insanity in individuals is rare, but in groups, parties, nations and epochs it is the rule. Friedrich Nietzsche If 33% of consumers shown a print advertisement of Bugs Bunny at Disneyland, later claimed they knew of or remembered Bugs Bunny at Disneyland, and multiple exposures boosted the memory rate, can intentionally disseminated misinformation persuade many to believe what they shouldnt? Bugs Bunny is not a Disney character. If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences. Joseph Goebbels Could a larger percentage of what you think you think, be what some frequently suggest you think you think? Pontius Pilate was the first great censor, and Jesus Christ the first great victim of censorship. Ben Lindsey

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Can most people be fooled most of the time? Could simultaneously reading, watching and listening to targeted messages, reinforce what may be biased, intentionally misleading information? The nationalist not only does not disapprove of atrocities committed by his own side, but he has a remarkable capacity for not even hearing about them. George Orwell Is it worse that Americas political leadership didnt see the financial crisis coming, or that most economists and business leaders didnt know, or did and failed to inform the public, or that some monetary authorities, regulators and legislators sharing relatively high portions of blame, pledged to find and punish those responsible and then didnt, as most of the mainstream media chose not to object? Should centralized information outlets lose influence as more independent internet based sources proliferate? Not to transmit an experience is to betray it. Elie Wiesel If most information is controlled by those who benefit from some messages more than others, would a multitude of diversified sources be better than a consolidated few? If many believe an untruth to be true, is it still not true? What is it men cannot be made to believe! Thomas Jefferson, April 22, 1786 Is it hard to get entrenched economic and political leadership to understand, if relative legitimacy depends on not understanding? Can many believe what they want, even if what they want to believe isnt true? Misconceptions play a large role in shaping history. George Soros Have financial markets gained after beating over-reduced expectations, under-reported bad news or positively spun late afternoon press leaks? Why are citizen reporters who bypass compensated journalists to report on some of what most mainstream media wont, often criticized by some well-established pundits?

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If truth isnt realizable without doubt, is skepticism the best way to confirm reality? Can some come to irrational conclusions to justify erroneous assumptions? Objectivity without transparency increasingly will look like arrogance. And then foolishness. Why should we trust what one personinsists is true when we instead could have a web of evidence, ideas, and argument? ..transparency is the new objectivity David Weinberger If different people can feel apathy, shock, denial, anger, guilt, depression or acceptance simultaneously, can contradictory facts be rationalized by different people differently at the same time? Can expectation effect perception? A myth is a fixed way of looking at the world which cannot be destroyed, because, looked at through the myth, all evidence supports that myth. Edward De Bono If you were who you think you were, and you are what you think you are, and some of what will, can, cant or wont change, what are the chances of becoming who you think youll be, if you may not really be cognizant of whats causing you to think what youre thinking? Could a moment when most understand what few knew be more important than the first discovery? His primary rules were: never allow the public to cool off, never admit a fault or wrong, never concede that there may be some good in your enemy, never leave room for alternatives, never accept blame, concentrate on one enemy at a time, and blame him for everything that goes wrong, people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one, and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it. United States Office of Strategic Services on Adolf Hitler The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops. Brigadier General Samuel B. Griffith None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

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Coffee tastes better if the latrines are dug downstream from an encampment. US Army Field Regulations, 1861 Is the present you the only who whos going to care for the future you?

Plan
Chance favors the prepared mind. Louis Pasteur If 7 out of 10 fail means 30 in 100, 300 in 1,000 and 3,000 in 10,000 succeed, could counting attempts increase the likelihood of success as opposed to dwelling on failures? If a child believes falling 100 times equals knowing how to do X, is praising persistence better than highlighting failure? The harder you work, the luckier you get. Gary Player If failing to plan is planning to fail, should the standard of living and quality of life of those who plan be higher than those that dont? If the poor plan for Saturday night, do the wealthy plan for generations? Looking at small advantages prevents great affairs from being accomplished. Confucius If the financial and occupational achievement of the 3% of Yale Universitys class of 1952 who put their goals into writing equaled the entire net worth of the rest of the graduating class 20 years later, are most more likely to be better off by planning work and working plans? If overachievers can underperform and underachievers can outperform at over-underachievement, how many under-overachievers could outperform overachievers if they wanted to? If I am not for myself, then who will be for me? And if I am only for myself, then what am I? And if not now, when? Rabbi Hillel

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I have studied the enemy all my life. I have read the memoirs of his generals and his leaders. I have even read his philosophers I have studied in detail the account of every damned one of his battles. I know exactly how he will react under any given set of circumstances, and he hasnt the slightest idea of what Im going to do. So when the time comes, Im going to whip the hell out of him. George S Patton If a 25 year old saving $100 per month for 40 years @ 7% should have ~$264,740.47 at age 65, and a 35 year old doing the same for 30 years should have about $122,844, can planning create more time for want by accomplishing need earlier? Is hope a plan? The pessimist complains about the wind. The optimist expects it to change. The leader adjusts the sails. John Maxwell If substitutes are allowed, can an experienced surrogate increase performance? If achievement takes less time with a plan, can you get farther faster than those without, and vice versa? Aim towards the enemy. Rocket Launcher Instructions Does saving $5 a day with a 10% return accumulate $1,000,000 in 40.3 years, unless you dont? If arrows feel gravity, can aiming a little higher increase the likelihood of hitting a target? In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable. Dwight D. Eisenhower If chance favors preparation and everyone is below average at something, should practice increase the likelihood of luck? Is it better to know the answer to some questions before asking?

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Victories must be seized upon; advantages taken when offered and losses suffered when they must be. Dennis Gartman If $1,000 invested in stocks from 1984 to 2002 made $7,910 while the average investor only made $660, can emotion occur before thought, and reaction precede comprehension and consequence? Do most tend to act in self interest before moral obligation? Control the oil and you'll control the nations. Control the food and you'll control the people. Henry Kissinger If theres less risk in fear than courage, hate than love, greed than selflessness and death than life, are some risks worth taking more than others? Why do some demand much more for possessions than they would pay to acquire them? A man has to guard against many things, most of all against himself, that is, against human nature. Jesse Livermore Early 20th century stock trader Whats the most you ever made? Whats the most you ever lost? How many more people did you tell of the gain than the loss? If the wise measure what they say, do fools promptly disclose all they know? If big print gives, can small print take? Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain Can non-random events cause random effects? Can reality not be or be more than you think? Were you to board a spaceship, head out from earth at 99.999999 percent of light speed, travel for six months and then head back home at the same speed, your motion would slow your clock relative to those that remain stationary on Earth so that youd be one year older upon your return, while everyone on Earth would have aged about 7,000 years. Brian Greene

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Conflict with the prevailing patterns and change them. Saul Can overreaction to fear of future unhappiness reduce appetite for present risk? Is it better to buy when sellers want to sell, or when they need to sell? In war, will is directed at an animate object that reacts. Karl von Clausewitz Military historian and theorist Does increasing unpredictability lead to greater reliance on prediction? Can accumulating ever larger losses lead to exponentially higher risk levels to break even, create profits and/or recapture self esteem? Courage is of two kinds. One kind is when you back your knowledge when things are going your way. The other kind is when you have the courage to quit when things are going against you. The courage that is associated with the hero often destroys the courage that is needed to be successful, Roy Longstreet Commodity Trader Instead of promising the imminent return of good times why arent our leaders talking more about the importance of living within our means and not spending money we dont have on things we dont need? Is the desire and reward for gain usually greater than the fear and pain of loss? The way of the world is to praise dead saints and persecute living ones. Nathaniel Howe Can greed and/or fear lead some to believe some things are less or more risky than they actually are? Is what could have or should be, more important than what was, is and may? If a nation expects to be ignorant and free..., it expects what never was and never will be. Thomas Jefferson

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On a long enough time line, is every living things survival rate 0? Can winning be slowly losing for as long as possible? A life making mistakes is not only more honorable, but more useful than a life spent doing nothing. George Bernard Shaw The more you lose, the longer it takes to break even. % loss 10 50 90 % to break even 11 100 1,000 The first rule is not to lose. The second rule is not to forget the first rule. Warren Buffett Can you choose not to lose if you want to? Have you learned more from success or failure? Learning isnot whether we lose the game, but how we lose, and how we've changed because of it and what we take away from it that we never had before to apply to other games. Losing in a curious way is winning. Richard Bach If at first you dont succeed, are you about average? If you have to lose, should the most valuable pieces be protected by sacrificing the less valuable first, like a pawn before a rook, or a stranger before family? I'll give you the bottom 10% and the top 10% of any move, if I get to keep the middle 80%. Bernard Baruch Can absorbing more small losses sooner and keeping winners longer increase return? If its more fun to count how many innings than games won, why not divide bigger into smaller to create more chances to win? Do little kids cry less after they hurt themselves if they are congratulated, or hugged and fussed over? Do the successful fail more than failures?

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I am the overseer of the domain that is my consciousness. George Hartzman

Dont tread on others unless theyre treading on you, be unloved,

criticize if it wont help, lose your temper, unless it would be bad to keep it, be a very good bad example, lead without permission, do guilt, offend many to benefit few or let ego exceed intelligence. Dont do anything you dont want done to you, unless you need to. A CPA shall not willfully violate any other provision of the Accountancy Statutes, the Professional Corporation Act, the Partnership Act, the Taxation Act, or the North Carolina Limited Liability Company Act. 21 NCAC 08N .0213 OTHER RULES Dont think you need want or want more than you need, confuse compassion with justice, consciously over-compensate for unconscious doubt, over-adore wanted acquisition, do what you dont want to get what you dont need, underestimate irrationality, or think more of what could have than what may be. Dont afflict inanimate objects with conjured meaning. Dont believe everything you think, conclude what you want because you want to, or confuse effort with result. Dont want what you cant get, let obsession with righteousness metastasize into hubris, rationalize faults by blaming others, think you know what you dont, do what you dont understand, over think, or swim with the incontinent. You shall not favor a poor man in his cause. Exodus 23:3 Dont let small mistakes become big ones by eliminating whats not working and doing more of what is, sooner than later. Dont self fulfill prophesy. For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America Dont do to others what you dont want done to you to get what you dont need, hide confusion with obliqueness, cut what can be untied, over-sacrifice need for want and vice versa, catch falling knives, ask a barber if you need a haircut, let what you own, own you, spend more than you make, build monuments, sacrifice future unhappiness for an unnecessarily pleasant present, lend need, owe more than you can easily repay, succeed at failure or give up.

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Give your family a better chance to succeed than your forefathers gave your parents and your parents gave you. Make luck happen.

What to Do Now
Create a higher likelihood of a better present by securing need and achieving want, in the shortest time with the least risk for as long as possible, by thinking of what and when relative to what was, and what may happen after what could happen next. Do the most good, in the best way, with as many people for as long as possible. To do righteousness and justice is more acceptable to Yahweh than sacrifice. Proverbs 21:3 If theres less risk and higher return in using a plan that matches circumstances, than trying to force circumstances to fit a plan, relax, accept and embrace uncertainty, focus, hypothesize, experiment, observe, acknowledge, compare, question the status quo, consider the counterintuitive, find strength in weakness, weakness in strength, and advantage in disadvantage, anticipate anticipation, know what you own, consult wisdom, accept and learn from criticism, look within for faults found in others, embrace differences, respect momentum, be incremental, bypass irrelevancy, protect your flanks and prepare for instability when stable, calculate risk, reduce to the least common denominator, weigh choice, adapt, practice with someone better, rise above and control emotion, commit, accept responsibility, maximize what works, minimize what doesnt, tear band aids off swiftly and play to win. Do the right thing when no ones looking, leave others better off for having known you, and the world a better place than you found it. The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good. Samuel Johnson Forget what you give, value what you get, return what you borrow, replace what you break, and forgive quickly. Hope everything happens the way it does and leave unanswered questions. Have as much fun as soon as possible, with the least amount of risk, for as long as possible.

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If I had more time, I would write a shorter letter. Blaise Pascal George Hartzman President of Think Professional Education, George has worked as a financial advisor since 1993, teaches financial ethics and CPA continuing education, is a portfolio manager, taxpayer advocate, consumerist and blogger, who foresaw the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, with degrees in Philosophy, Communications and Public Relations and likes debate economics, philosophy, politics, ethics and religion, teach, read, write, speak, coach, play chess with his dad, and tries to be the human he thinks his dogs believe he is in Greensboro, North Carolina If fewer words many know mean more than multitudes not understood, with more time, less wouldve meant more. Dont cry because it's over. Smile because it happened. Dr Seuss George is also the author of Think, What to Do Now, Think, Investor Guide Think, Retirement Plan Edition, Fiduciary Guide, Questions for America and currently blogs at questionsforamerica.com and triadwatch.blogspot.com Think Professional Education 2506 Baytree Drive Greensboro, NC 27455 Contact: (336) 420-4916 or hartzmancpe@gmail.com Authentication

Excerpts from June 27, 2011 edition before the latest financial volatility, on September 2, 2011. I am he as you are me and we are all together. John Lennon and Paul McCartney

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