July 2011

4GCounts Quarterly Report - Issue 15

Authors:
Ann Howe
Senior Analyst & Advisor
Basharat Ashai
4GCounts Market Analyst, APAC & MEA
Cintia Garza
4Gcounts Team Leader and Market Analyst, North America and CALA
Fernando Donso
4Ggear 4G Device Senior Analyst

410 rue des Recollets, Suite 301, Montreal, QC H2Y 1W2 CANADA

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July 2011

Executive Summary
LTE Deployment Trends
During Q2 2011, several key announcements have been made concerning not only LTE but the cellular
market in general. Operators commitments to LTE will continue to grow since WiMAX will diminish as an
alternative to LTE in the future evolution of the current mobile networks. The choices among operators
regarding their chosen LTE flavor will supersede LTE commitment tracking and the battle between WiMAX
and LTE.
Maravedis research found that at the end of Q2 2011, there were 177 operators worldwide committed to
FDD-LTE, 21 operators committed to TD-LTE, 20 operators that have commercially launched FDD LTE,
and four operators that have conducted trials of both TD-LTE and FDD-LTE. Given the cellular industrys
FDD tradition, FDD-LTE is clearly the most common variant that will be deployed, although TD-LTE is also
growing in terms of commitments. It is important to note that spectrum availability for TDD services is
currently much smaller in every country compared to FDD, providing another explanation for the higher
support for FDD-LTE.

TD-LTE Gaining Momentum

In Asia, China Mobile is planning to accelerate its investment in TD-LTE technology. The operator is
aiming to push the commercialization of TD-LTE networks one year ahead of its prior original schedule
(previously TD-LTE in 2014). Poor sales of its 3G TD-SCDMA networks have motivated China Mobile to
move forward on 4G.
While China Mobile can rightfully be tagged as the primary operator driving TD-LTE, the technology clearly
has global momentum behind it now. Interest from other major markets such as Russia, Japan, India
and the US has spurred major operators like Bharti Airtel, Reliance Industries Limited, Softbank Mobile,
and Aircel to begin moving into TD-LTE. Europes major operators have typically deployed FDD networks,
but winners in the German auctions indicate that operators are increasingly interested in TDD bands.
We expect to see some traction on the TD-LTE front in India in the second half of 2012. Maravedis
forecasts that the TD-LTE subscriber base in India will reach 2.25 million by the end of 2012. RIL, a panIndia license holder, is expected to lead the market in terms of the number of TD-LTE subscribers with a
62% market share. By the end of 2016, we forecast that India will have a TD-LTE subscriber base of 21
million. We forecast RIL will continue to maintain its leadership position with a 52.4% market share.

FDD and TD-LTE Subscriber Forecast

Maravedis latest LTE subscriber forecast shows 326 million LTE subscribers will be reached by 2016, of
which 20% or 65 million will be TD-LTE users and the rest (80% or 261 million) will be FDD-LTE. Our
estimation could be a little more optimistic in the future, depending on the progress of early FDD-LTE
deployments, especially in Europe, where LTE subscriber growth has been slow.
According to our estimations, TD-LTE subscriber uptake will start in 2013 onwards, based on commercial
service from China Mobile and other Asian operators. Regionally, we assume that TD-LTE growth will be
driven by APAC countries, including China, India, Japan, Korea, and Malaysia. Additional subscriber
growth should occur as leading 4G operators transition their existing WiMAX networks to TD-LTE. On the
FDD-LTE side, by 2016, APAC will contribute the largest number of FDD-LTE subscribers, followed by
Europe and North America. These regions will represent the 37%, 28%, and 24% respectively, of the
worldwide accumulated FDD-LTE subscriber base by year 2016.

LTE Device Market Maturity & Trends

Although one of the main advantages of LTE is the huge worldwide ecosystem it enables, operators are
not yet taking advantage of this potential when talking about devices, especially smartphones. At the early
stages of LTE, we saw several operators, such as TeliaSonera, Telekom Austria and Hong Kong CSL, use
Samsungs USB Dongle GT-B3730. However, in the smartphone market, each operator is working with
different vendors and the market is fragmented, in part because the available smartphones implement
operator-specific combinations of bands and protocols.
In addition, operators such as Verizon and MetroPCS are using distinctive devices to entice customers
onto their LTE networks. Although this may be an appropriate market strategy to attract early adopters, as
times goes by, we expect LTE smartphones become more of a commodity item and a commonality across
operators. We expect the increased volume driven by this commonality to not only lower costs to operators

Maravedis 2011-All Rights Reserved

July 2011

but increase the reliability of device supply as models are developed to meet the needs of multiple
operators.

WiMAX Subscriber Trends

At the end of Q2 2011, the worldwide BWA/WiMAX industry accounted for 19.8 million subscribers, an
increase of 14.8% quarter over quarter from the 17.25 million BWA/WiMAX subscribers reported at the end
of Q1 2011. The BWA/WiMAX subscriber base grew by 12.35 million between Q2 2010 and Q2 2011.
This represents a yearly increase of 165.8%. Maravedis predicts that the BWA/WiMAX subscriber base will
reach approximately 28.6 million at the end of 2012. Out of the 28.6 million subscribers, 21 million will be
mobile using an 802.16e-2005 network.
The leading 50 WiMAX operators tracked in Maravedis 4GCounts reported a total subscriber base of 13.4
million at the end of Q2 2011. This represents approximately 68% of the overall WiMAX subscriber base
worldwide.

Top WiMAX Operator Subscriber Status

On the subscriber front in North America, Clearwire ended the first quarter 2011 with approximately 6.15
million total subscribers, up 533% from 971,000 subscribers in the first quarter 2010. The subscriber base
consists of 1.29 million retail subscribers and 4.86 million wholesale subscribers. During the first quarter
2011, Clearwire added 1.8 million total net new subscribers, including 155,000 retail additions and 1.6
million wholesale additions. Clearwire's wholesale subscribers consist primarily of users of 3G/4G multimode devices. Maravedis estimates that Clearwire reached 7.5 million total subscribers at the end of Q2
2011.
In Asia, Pacific UQ Communications in Japan, Wateen Telecom in Pakistan, and Packet One in Malaysia
continue to show a very good performance in the WiMAX subscriber uptake. At the end of Q2 2011, UQ
Communications in Japan had an estimated 1.08 million WiMAX subscribers, versus 806,600 at the end of
Q1 2011, representing 34.2 % subscriber growth.
In the CALA region, Axtel and Telmex Brazil are the leading WiMAX operators in number of subscribers. At
the end of Q2 2011, Axtel had an estimated 465,000 WiMAX subscribers while Telmex Brazil had 123,000.
In Europe, Yota (Russia), Imagine Communications (Ireland), and Enforta (Russia) are the leading
operators in WiMAX subscriber numbers at the end of Q2 2011. Yota had an estimated 954,000 WiMAX
subscribers at the end of Q2 2011, while Imagine Communications in Ireland had 82,000.

Mobile WiMAX Device Trends

In contrast to fixed WiMAX, mobile WiMAX had the highest yearly increase of activated devices at 274%
globally, with the cumulative number of mobile WiMAX devices activated surging from 4.21 million in Q2
2010 to 15.75 million in Q2 2011. This is explained by the increasing activation of handsets and
smartphones, as well as other mobile broadband devices, and the aggressive network expansion of some
mobile WiMAX carriers such as Clearwire (USA) and UQ Communications (Japan).
However, a small number of carriers are responsible for the marked increase in mobile WiMAX devices
activated. A significant finding is that the top 10 mobile WiMAX Operators namely, Axtel (Mexico),
Clearwire (USA), Embratel (Brazil), Globe Telecom (Phillipines), Korea Telecom (South Korea), Packet
One Networks (Malaysia), UQ Communications (Japan), Wateen Telecom (Pakistan), Wi-Tribe
(International) and Yota (Russia) accounted for 86% or 11.70 million units of the total mobile WiMAX
devices activated as of Q2 2011. Clearwire alone was responsible for 56% of the worldwide mobile
WiMAX devices. The switch of one or more of those carriers from WiMAX to LTE could have a significant
impact on the WiMAX industry.

These and other major 4G operator and deployment trends will be analyzed in this 15
4GCounts Quarterly Report.

Maravedis 2011-All Rights Reserved

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July 2011

Issue of the

Table of Contents
1.

4G Spectrum Activity Update - Q2 2011 .......................................................................................... 13

Asia-Pacific ............................................................................................................................... 13
Europe ...................................................................................................................................... 14
Central and Latin America ......................................................................................................... 15
LTE Activity around the World Q2 2011 ........................................................................................ 17
2.1
FDD-LTE Market Trends ........................................................................................................... 19
2.1.1
Europe ................................................................................................................................... 19
2.1.2
North America........................................................................................................................ 20
2.1.3
APAC..................................................................................................................................... 21
2.1.4
MEA....................................................................................................................................... 22
2.1.5
CALA ..................................................................................................................................... 22
2.2
TD-LTE Market Trends and Opportunities ................................................................................ 23
2.2.1
Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................ 23
2.2.2
North America........................................................................................................................ 28
2.2.3
Europe ................................................................................................................................... 28
2.2.4
TD-LTE Spectrum Review ..................................................................................................... 29
2.3
LTE Subscriber Forecast .......................................................................................................... 30
Global BWA/WiMAX Market Trends and Statistics - Q2 2011......................................................... 35
3.1
North America ........................................................................................................................... 35
3.2
Asia Pacific ............................................................................................................................... 36
3.3
Europe ...................................................................................................................................... 39
3.4
CALA......................................................................................................................................... 39
3.5
MEA .......................................................................................................................................... 40
3.6
POPs Covered-Q2 2011 ........................................................................................................... 41
3.7
ARPU & Revenue Trends-Q2 2011 .......................................................................................... 43
3.7.1
ARPUs relationship with Traffic ............................................................................................ 43
3.7.2
BWA/WiMAX Service Revenues-Q2 2011 ............................................................................ 44
Churn rate Analysis- 2011 ................................................................................................................ 45
Global 4G Equipment Trends and Statistics Q2 2011 ................................................................... 48
5.1
LTE Infrastructure Trends ......................................................................................................... 48
5.1.1
LTE Infrastructure Contract Awards by Vendor ..................................................................... 48
5.1.2
LTE Infrastructure Vendors chosen by Top 50 4GCounts LTE Operators. ............................ 49
5.1.3
Infrastructure Vendor Ranking ............................................................................................... 52
5.1.4
Frequency Considerations ..................................................................................................... 54
5.2
LTE Devices Trends.................................................................................................................. 54
5.2.1
LTE Device Ecosystem ......................................................................................................... 54
5.2.2
LTE Device Market Maturity & Trends ................................................................................... 57
5.2.3
Device Form Factor Trends ................................................................................................... 57
5.2.4
Operating System .................................................................................................................. 58
5.2.5
LTE devices forecast .................................................................................................................
5.3
BWA/WiMAX Equipment Trends ............................................................................................... 59
5.3.1
WiMAX Devices installed Q2 2011 ........................................................................................ 59
5.3.2
WiMAX Device Forecast........................................................................................................ 62
5.3.3
Devices Activated by Equipment Vendor ............................................................................... 63
5.3.4
Device Form Factor Trends ................................................................................................... 64
5.3.5
Global Base Station Market Share by Equipment Vendor Q1 2011 ...................................... 65
5.3.6
BWA/WiMAX Vendor Ranking ............................................................................................... 68
5.3.7
Description of Criteria ............................................................................................................ 68
5.3.8
NSN Acquisition of Motorola Solutions .................................................................................. 69
5.3.9
BWA/WiMAX Base Station Forecasts ................................................................................... 69
The Final Word................................................................................................................................. 71
1.1
1.2
1.3

2.

3.

4.
5.

6.

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July 2011

List of Figures & Tables

Figure 1: TD-LTE Subscriber Projections (in millions) 2012-2016 .............................................................. 25
Figure 2:TD-LTE Subscriber Market Share by Operator Projections- 2016 ................................................ 25
Figure 3: Total Accumulated TD-LTE Device and Base Stations Market (in US$ millions) ......................... 25
Figure 4: Packet One Networks TD-LTE roadmap...................................................................................... 26
Figure 5: Potential TD-LTE Spectrum ......................................................................................................... 30
Figure 6: LTE Subscriber Forecast 2011-2016 ........................................................................................... 31
Figure 7: (Left chart) TD-LTE Subscriber Forecast 2010-2016 (In millions)................................................ 31
Figure 8: (Right chart) FDD LTE Subscriber Forecast 2010 -2016 (in millions) .......................................... 31
Figure 9:Top BWA/WiMAX Operators Worldwide at the end of Q2 2011 ................................................... 35
Figure 10: UQ Communications Quarterly WiMAX Subscriber Trend ......................................................... 36
Figure 11: Wateen Telecom Quarterly WiMAX Subscriber Trend ............................................................... 37
Figure 12: P1 Quarterly WiMAX Subscriber Trend ..................................................................................... 37
Figure 13: Regional breakdown of the POPs Covered-Q2 2011 ................................................................ 41
Figure 14: Cisco Mobile Data Traffic Forecast ............................................................................................ 43
Figure 15: Quarterly BWA/WiMAX Growth per Region for Top 50 WiMAX Operators ................................ 45
Figure 16: Quarterly Churn Rates of Top Mobile Operators Worldwide Q1 2011 .................................... 46
Figure 17: Commercial LTE Infrastructure Contracts by Top Vendor to Date (Q2 2011) ........................... 48
Figure 18: LTE Device Ecosystem Breakdown Q2 2011 (Accumulative).................................................... 58
Figure 19: Global Fixed and Mobile Subscriber Forecast 2010-2016 Accumulative (In Millions) ................ 60
Figure 20: BWA/WiMAX Device Base by Standard Q2 2010 Q2 2011. ................................................... 61
Figure 21:Breakdown of Devices by Standard Top 50 WiMAX Operators Q2 2011. ............................... 62
Figure 22: WiMAX Devices Breakdown by Vendor (Top 50 WiMAX Operators) Q2 2011 ....................... 63
Figure 23: WiMAX Device Breakdown by Vendor (Top 50 WiMAX Operators) Q2 2011 ......................... 65
Figure 24: WiMAX Device Breakdown by Vendor (Worldwide) Q2 2010 ................................................. 65
Figure 25: WiMAX Base Station Sectors Installed (in thousands, Q1 2010 Q1 2011) ............................. 66
Figure 26: Number of BWA/WiMAX Base Stations Sectors Installed Base by Vendor (Top 50 WiMAX
Operators) Q1 2011 and Q2 2011. ...................................................................................................... 69
Figure 27: Base Stations Sectors Breakdown by Standard ( Top 50 WiMAX Operators) Q2 2011 ............ 69
Figure 28: Base Stations Sectors Breakdown by Vendor (Top 50 WiMAX Operators) Q2 2011................. 70
Figure 29: Accumulated Mobile WiMAX Base Stations Installed ................................................................ 70

Table 1: 4G Key Findings and Statistics Q2 2011 ............................................................................................... 11

Table 2: LTE Device Forecast 2011 - 2016 ................................................................................................ 11
Table 3: Current spectrum holdings and upcoming releases in Colombia .................................................. 16
Table 4: Regional TD-LTE and FDD-LTE Subscriber Forecast 2010-2016 (In Millions) ............................. 32
Table 5: LTE Subscriber Forecast by Operator 2011-2016 (in millions) TOP 50 LTE Operators. ........... 32
Table 6:BWA/WiMAX Subscriber Forecasts (in millions, 2012-2016) ......................................................... 35
Table 7: POPs Covered by Top WiMAX Operators - Q2 2011 ................................................................... 42
Table 8: Quarterly BWA/WiMAX revenues and growth ............................................................................... 44
Table 9: LTE RAN Equipment Vendors Top 50 Operators Q2 2011 ........................................................... 49
Table 10: New LTE commercial contracts announced in Q1 and Q2 2011 by major LTE Vendors. ........... 51
Table 11: LTE Infrastructure Vendor Ranking Q2 2011 .............................................................................. 52
Table 12: Smartphones Breakdown by Operating System 2010 -2014 ...................................................... 59
Table 13: BWA/WiMAX Devices Installed Q1 2010 Q1 2011 .................................................................. 62
Table 14: Clearwires 4G Subscriber Trends by Device Type 2010 2014 (In Millions)............................. 64
Table 15: Installed Device Base by Top WiMAX Operators Q1 2011 ......................................................... 64
Table 16: BWA/WiMAX Base Stations Sectors Installed Q1 2010 Q1 2011 ............................................ 66
Table 17: Base Station Sectors Installed Base by Vendor Q4 2009 - Q2 2011 .......................................... 67
Table 18: Base Station Sectors Installed During the Quarter by Vendor Q4 2009 - Q2 2011 ..................... 67
Table 19: WiMAX Vendor Ranking ............................................................................................................. 68
Table 20: WiMAX Forum Certified Products (As of June 16, 2011) ............................................................ 71
th
th
Table 21:WiMAX Products Certified (March 9 , 2011 - June 16 , 2011).................................................... 71

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July 2011