Air Pollution

Guy Hutton, PhD

Swiss Centre for International Health, Swiss Tropical Institute Basel, Switzerland DSI Development Solutions International guy.hutton@dev-solint.com

Presentation Overview
The problem The range of solutions The costs of selected solutions The benefits of selected solutions Benefit-cost ratios Interpretation of results Issues in scaling up the solutions
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The problem: introduction

Suspended particulate matter (dust, soot, fumes, mist, smoke, liquid droplets), gaseous pollutants (lead, SO2, NO2, O3, CO), odours Transportation, energy generation, industrial operations, processing industries, domestic cooking & heating Air pollution impacts
Human and animal health (respiratory, heart) Buildings and materials Agricultural production Biodiversity Visibility Greenhouse gases
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The problem: causes

Indoor air Household use of biomass for cooking and heating
Open fires or traditional stoves Conditions of low combustion efficiency, poor ventilation

Problem more in rural areas (biomass)

Also other "modern" indoor air pollutants (e.g. sickbuilding syndrome) And environmental tobacco smoke, exposure to chemicals or gases in indoor workplaces

Rule of 1000: pollutant released indoors is 1000 times more likely to reach peoples lungs than one released outdoors
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The problem: causes

Outdoor air Combustion of petroleum products or coal
Motor vehicles, industry, power generation Mainly around cities and industrial areas

Associated with advancing economic development Implies also a corresponding underdevelopment

Affording technologies that reduce pollution Subsidizing public transport schemes Enforcing regulations

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The problem: the numbers

Indoor air > 3 billion people depend on solid fuels In rural areas, unimproved domestic fuels account for 66% (WPR) to >85% households (SSA & SEA) > 1.5 million annual deaths attributed to solid fuel use within the home Outdoor air 1.5 billion pop. breathe air > WHO standard 800,000 annual deaths 65% in developing Asia 0.6% - 1.4% disease burden in LDCs Lead pollution contributes further 0.9% Omits air pollution from forest fires and industrial or nuclear accidents
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Akimoto H Global Air Quality and Pollution Science, 2003

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Global mean tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) 01/2003 06/2004. University of Heidelberg.
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Air pollution in the MDGs

Health Environmental sustainability Gender equality Overall poverty rates

goals 4, 5 and 6 goal 7 goal 3 goal 1

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Indoor Air

The solutions: indoor air

Reducing the source of pollution
Improved cooking devices Cleaner burning fuel Reduced need for fire

Altering the living environment

Ventilation Kitchen design Stove placement

Alter user behaviour

Fuel drying Stove and chimney maintenance Use of pot lids to conserve heat Keep children away from the smoke
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Costs and benfits of the solution Few cost-benefit studies of indoor air pollution interventions One study by WHO evaluated global and regional costs and benefits of selected indoor air pollution interventions:
Solid fuels to LPG or ethanol Improved stoves

All evaluated for MDG target and universal access, also with a separate pro-poor analysis This presentation shows the MDG analysis
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Total costs of solutions (US$ m) LPG

7000 6000

Global 5000 annual cost = 23.6 billion US$

US$ millions

4000 3000 2000 1000 0

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

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Total costs of solutions (US$ m) Stove

600

500

Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$ 400

US$ millions

300

200

100

0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B

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Net costs of solutions (US$ m) LPG

5000 4500 4000 3500 Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$
US$ millions

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR- SEAR- WPR-B B D

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Net costs of solutions (US$ m) Stove

0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR- SEAR- WPR-B B D

-2000

Global annual net cost = -34.4 billion US$

US$ millions

-4000 -6000 -8000

-10000 -12000 -14000 -16000

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Total benefits of solutions (%) LPG

Environment 6% Fuel 10% Health care 0%

Morbidity 1%

Time savings 45% Mortality 38%

Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$

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Total benefits of solutions (%) Stove

Environment 2% Fuel 26%

Morbidity 0%

Time savings 62%

Health care 0% Mortality 10%

Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$

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Benefit-cost ratios: LPG

DALY = US$1,000
10 8 6 4 2 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

DALY = US$5,000

10 8 6 4 2 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

Value Productivity & VOSL

10 8 6 4 2 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

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Benefit-cost ratios: stove

DALY = US$1,000
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

DALY = US$5,000

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

Value Productivity & VOSL

120 100 80 60 40 20 0
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World

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LPG

Benefit-Cost Ratio
1. St ov e co st s&

AFR-D Region

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10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0.0

5.0

ef fic ien cy pr ic e s Fu el

2. 4. Va lue of tim e (a l (c h l ts an d ch i ldr lp e tim op il d en 7. re im of al th pa ula n di ffe Ti m 8. 11 10 .E m is s io .G ns HG ec on 12 .D e lue ct ti o on re He Va 3. 6. Ti m e va l ue (a du 5.

n) l y) nt sa v Tr ee em om i sc l y) in g co is s io ic ou va l nt s st ns

Low

High

Base case

ue ra te

One-way sensitivity analysis

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Outdoor Air

The solutions: outdoor air

Remove pollution at its source
Fewer vehicle kilometers traveled
Reduce need to travel Switch to public transport or car pooling

- e.g. transport

Less fuel use per vehicle km traveled

Lighter vehicles More efficient engine

Less pollution per unit of fuel used

Switch to cleaner fuel Catalytic converter

Filtering pollution away from the source (chimneys, re-location)

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The solutions: outdoor air

Policy options
Illegal to use a polluting fuel or substance (e.g. bans on leaded gasoline or asbestos) Increase the costs of using polluting fuels (polluter pays principle fuel tax or road tax) Disseminate information on best practices
Less polluting technologies Fuel efficiency Changing behaviour

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Costs and benfits of the solution

Considerable diversity of studies in literature
National versus city-level studies Comprehensive air pollution control versus single regulatory measures Single versus multiple pollutant interventions Industry-wide versus single industry measures

Interventions presented focus mainly on fuel switching or technological solutions Studies mainly from developed countries

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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

1. US Federal Regulations Policy National emissions standards for hazardous air pollutants Scope Country-wide Year 1994-2004 Cost US$15 - US$17 billion annually Benefit Health US$41 - US$218 billion annually BCR 2.72 - 13.0
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

2. United States EPA Clean Air Act Clean Air Act Country-wide 1990 - 2010 US$19 billion annually in 2000 Rising to US$27 billion annually in 2010 Benefit Health, crop damage, visibility US$71 billion annually in 2000 Rising to US$110 billion annually BCR 3.8
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Policy Scope Year Cost

Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

3. European clean air targets Policy Reductions in emissions to meet air quality targets for CO, heavy metals, ozone, hydrocarbons Scope Europe-wide Cost Euro 7 billion annually Benefit Mortality, morbidity, hospital admissions (from PM and ozone) Euro 42 billion annually BCR 6.0
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

4. UK Air Quality Strategy review Policy Scope Year Cost Benefit 17 policy measures to achieve AQS Country-wide 2005 - 2020 374 - 866 million annually Health 566 - 2021 million annually 0.9 3.8

BCR

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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

5. China natural gas project Policy Substituting natural gas for coal in residential and commercial uses Scope Beijing and Chongqing Year 1998 - 2018 Cost Capital investment year 0 Beij. 3.5 bn RBM; Chong. 0.7 bn RMB Benefit Health annual figures Beij. 2.1 bn RBM; Chong. 4.9 bn RMB NPV Beij: 6.9 bn RMB; Chong: 18.6 bn RMB IRR Beij: 29%; Chong: 75%
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

6. Shanghai Emission Control Emissions control in power and industry Shanghai 2010-2020 Power: US$395 million annually Industry: US$94 million annually Benefit Mortality, morbidity, work days (PM10) Power: US$417 million annually Industry: US$266 million annually 2.0 (power) and 5.4 (industry)
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Policy Scope Year Cost

BCR
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

7. Japan sulphur emissions control Policy Comparing SO2 emissions control in 3

policy epochs Scope Country-wide Year 1968-73; 1974-1983; 1984-93 Cost (1) 5,576 bn Yen; (2) 15,991 bn Yen (3) 9,354 bn Yen Benefit Morbidity, work days (1) 30,058 bn Yen; (2) 18,818 bn Yen; (3) 3,854 bn Yen BCR (1) 5.39; (2) 1.18; (3) 0.41
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:

Other studies presenting BCRs Air pollution reductions in Hungary: 3.0 17.0 Emissions reductions in the oil extraction industry in Kazakhstan: 5.7 Nitric oxide and NO2 emissions reductions in Tokyo (1974 to 1993): 6.0 Pollution control programme in Canada: 3.0

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Interpreting the results

Outdoor air pollution studies estimate mainly health-related costs, omitting
Quality of life indicators Material damage and costs of cleaning up Agricultural production Biodiversity Global environment

Large uncertainties in health impact estimations Economic results highly dependent on valuation techniques e.g. value of life
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Scaling up the solutions

Priority setting
Multiple factors influence decision makers

Financing
Cost savings make some interventions attractive Environmental benefits are externalities

Other issues
Regulations need to be respected (policing costs) Access to markets and technologies
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