Economics: Daily Alert

13 September 2011

US sharemarkets rebound over the last hour of trade.

The OECD leading indicator for the grouping of 33 "rich" nations has fallen for a fourth straight month from 102.1 to 101.6 in July. European Central Bank governing council member Athanasios Orphanides said that the US economy has experienced a "growth slowdown, but the consensus view is not that of a recession." The Financial Times has reported on its website that Italy has asked China to make "significant" purchases of Italian debt. European shares hit fresh 2-year lows on Monday as reports continued to swirl about a Greek debt default or ratings downgrades for French banks. There were no actual events that drove trade. The FTSEurofirst index fell by 2.7pct, the German Dax lost 2.3pct and the UK FTSE lost 1.6pct. US sharemarkets staged a stunning rebound with the Dow Jones rallying 200pts in the last 45 minutes of trade. Rumours that Italy has asked China to buy its debt caused investors to claw up bargains. The Dow Jones closed higher by 69pts or 0.6pct after being down 236pts at one stage. The S&P 500 rose by 0.7pct while the Nasdaq gained 27pts or 1.1pct. US treasuries fell on Monday (yields higher) as investors switched from bonds to equities in late trade. US 2yr yields rose by 3pts to 0.209pct and US 10yr yields rose by 3pts to 1.948pct. The US dollar slumped against the Euro and commodity currencies in late trade as US shares rebounded and investors switched from safe-haven assets. The Euro rose from US$1.3555 to near the day's highs of US$1.3680, before ending the US session near US$1.3670. The Aussie dollar fell from highs around US103.80c to US102.55c, but rebounded in late US trade to end the session near US103.40c. And the Japanese yen eased from 76.70 yen per US dollar to JPY77.35, ending US trade at JPY77.25. Global crude oil prices were mixed on Monday. Nymex crude oil rose by US95c or 1.1pct to US$88.19 a barrel and London Brent crude fell by US52c or 0.5pct to US$112.25 a barrel. Base metal prices were mixed on the London Metal Exchange on Monday. Nickel rose 2.2pct, zinc rose 1.2pct and aluminium rose 0.2pct but other metals fell up to 1.1pct. But the gold price fell on Monday as investors booked profits to cover losses in other markets. The Comex December gold price fell by US$46.20 an ounce or 2.5pct to US$1,813.30. Ahead: In Australia, the NAB business survey is due and ABARES releases its Crop Report. In the US, export and import prices & weekly chain store sales data are due.

% 0.300

US TREASURY BONDS
2yr (lhs) 10yr (rhs)

% 2.10

0.200

2.00

0.100

1.90

0.000 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00

1.80 00:55

US EQUITIES
1200
S&P500 (lhs)

1200
S&P500 Futures (rhs)

1175 1150 1125 1100 08:00

1175 1150 1125 1100

14:00

20:00

02:00

00:55

1.370

USD

78.0

1.360

77.0

EUR/USD (lhs) USD/JPY (rhs)

1.350 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00

76.0 00:55

AUD
1.050 0.770

1.040 0.760 1.030

AUD/USD (lhs) AUD/EUR (rhs)

1.020 08:00 14:00 20:00 02:00 00:55

0.750

Currencies AUD/USD NZD/USD EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CHF AUD/NZD AUD/JPY AUD/EUR 1.0318 0.8185 1.3603 76.97 1.5860 0.8854 1.2605 79.42 0.7585 -1.5% -0.4% -0.4% -0.8% -0.1% 0.2% -1.1% -2.3% -1.1%

10 Yr Bond Yields (%) Australia NZ US AU less US 3.77 4.47 1.95 1.82 -0.10 -0.04 0.03

Com m odities CRB Index GS Index Aluminium $/t Copper $/t Lead $/t Nickel $/t Zinc $/t Gold $/o WTI Oil $/b 334.07 NA 2337 8732 2445 21587 2193 1835.6 88.19 -0.1% NA 0.20% -0.77% -1.14% 2.17% 1.19% 0.2% 1.1% Dow S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE Shanghai H.Seng Nikkei ASX200 NZSX50

Equities 11,061 1,162 2,495 5,130 NA 19,031 8,536 4,039 3,264 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% -1.6% NA -4.2% -2.3% -3.7% -1.8%

NZ less US 2.52 AUD Sw ap Rates (%) 3mth 3yr 5yr 4.87 4.11 4.46 -0.02 -0.17 -0.16

Chris Tennent-Brown FX Economist T. +612 9117 1378 E. chris.tennent-brown@cba.com.au

Important Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document www.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945. and at

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Economics: Preview
AUSTRALIA & NEW ZEALAND
Tuesday 13 September NZ Economic Survey of Manufacturing, QII, q%ch, (2.5 prev) Manufacturing volumes increased strongly over QI. Sales volumes increased 2.5% (excluding dairy and meat) and StatsNZ reported that the increase was relatively broad-based across industries. Meanwhile, non-food related manufacturing production within GDP recorded a 4.4% over QI. The increase was impressive given the disruption to many Canterbury based manufacturers from the February earthquake. We expect further growth in manufacturing production over QII. Manufacturing confidence remained upbeat, partly supported by the competitive exchange rate for exporters focussed on Australia. Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic activity points to improved demand for non-export manufacturers as well.
diff GDP index

EX-FOOD MANUFACTURING % & CONFIDENCE 6

4 2

65

55

0 -2

45

Manufacturing PMI Survey

35

-4 -6 -8 -1 0

Source: Stats NZ

GDP Ex-Food Manufacturing Production (rhs)

M ar-07 M ar-09 M ar-1 1

25 M ar-03 M ar-05

Sometime this week REINZ house sales - August Previous housing turnover: -1.9% mom, s.a. The underlying picture of the market remains of a very gradual pickup in New Zealand housing market activity. Nationwide housing turnover edged slightly lower in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis. As expected, there was a recovery in turnover in Canterbury over July from the sharp drop in the wake of the earthquakes in the previous month. Outside of Canterbury, there are some signs of softening in housing turnover, although poor weather over the month may have contributed to this. Nonetheless, median days to sell continued to edge lower, indicating some tightening in the housing market. We expect housing turnover remained around current levels in August.

NZ DWELLING SALES
(seasonally adjusted)
1 0000 R E IN Z C a nt e rbury s a le s 8000 1 400 1 800

6000

1 000

4000 R E IN Z N a t io na l S a le s e x C a nt e rbury ( LH S )

600

2000

200

Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-1 0

NAB Business confidence and the Australia Manpower Survey are due today.

INTERNATIONAL
Tuesday 13 September UK CPI, Aug, m/y%ch (0.0/ 4.4 prev) UK CPI inflation is still comfortably in the 4%-5% range and has recently been drifting higher. The latest Bank of England Inflation Report projections still suggest that CPI inflation is expected to head up towards the 5% mark before turning back lower next year. The reasons for the upward drift in the inflation rate remain familiar base effects from the VAT increase and rising food and energy prices.
%pa 6

UK INFLATION
Headline CPI

%pa 6

BoE's 2.0% target 2 BoE's forecast Core CPI 0 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 0 2

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Economics: Review
Australia and New Zealand
NZ Wholesale Trade Survey QII. QII NZ Wholesale Trade Survey showed sales increased 2.2% over the quarter. Strong increases in wholesale activity of motor vehicles, commissioned-based sales and other goods underpinned the lift over the quarter. However, looking at the data on basis similar to GDP, the increase in wholesale trade was more muted, up 0.8%. Once taking account of price movements (from the PPIs) our indicator suggests that production volumes actually declined by 2%. The result is weaker than we had anticipated, and has led us to further revise down our QII GDP forecast. We are currently expecting 0.4% GDP growth in QII. The final large piece of GDPrelated data, the Economic Survey of Manufacturing, is due today. We are expecting to see 2% growth in non-food manufacturing volumes. AU Trade Balance July The July trade surplus provided another sign of the different speeds, or growth trends, in the Australian economy. The mining sector is facing strong demand and high global prices. Mining related export volumes are expected to keep rising steadily. Exports of Goods and Services (G&S) fell marginally, by 1% or $224m to $26.1bn in July. Non rural goods fell by 4% ($724m) and rural goods fell by 1% ($41m). Non monetary gold rose 82% ($596m). Imports of G&S fell by 1% ($232m) to $24.3bn. Intermediate and other merchandise goods imports fell $513m (6%), capital goods rose $135m (3%) and non monetary gold rose $22m (6%). Consumption goods rose $166m (3%). The monthly services deficit fell to $713m in July, from $833m in June. The services deficit was $461m in July 2010. It is growing as more Australians travel overseas, widening the gap between overseas departures and arrivals. The monthly travel balance is likely to shift into deficit in the next few months. RBNZ view The RBNZ suggests that current interest rate levels would not be needed much longer. We expect the RBNZ to remove its insurance cut in QIV 2011. RBA view The QII CPI confirmed the inflation trend has turned up. Rate rises are likely. We expect a rate rise in February. The cash rate is expected to reach 5.50% by 2013.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

US & CANADA
United States
No major releases. European Central Bank governing council member Athanasios Orphanides said that the US economy has experienced a "growth slowdown, but the consensus view is not that of a recession. US Department of Agriculture report: The most recent supply and demand projections from the US government show the lowest US corn yield since 2005, confirming concerns that summer weather problems really hurt the crop. The report moved projected season average corn prices up another 5% from the August estimate. US soybean production was slightly increased with ending stocks increasing from previous estimates. US milk production for the year was raised again despite high feeding costs because herd size continues to increase. Those estimates showed ending stocks of dairy products to increase next year.

Canada
There was no major data in Canada. FOMC view Given the loss of momentum in the US economy, particularly in the labour market, we expect the Fed to maintain the size of its balance sheet until early 2013. The first Fed funds hike is not expected until mid 2013. Bank of Canada view Softness in the US economy is likely to affect the Canadian economy given the strong trade ties. We expect the BoC to remain on hold until mid 2012 before it embarks on a slow and steady removal of policy accommodation.

EUROZONE & UK
Eurozone Italy sold 7.5bn of one year bonds at its auction overnight. The Italian Treasury Ministry says the average interest rate for a 12-month bond in Monday's auction rose to 4.153 % from 2.959 % in last month's offer. This is the highest yield on record since September 2008. For 3-month bonds, the borrowing rate rose from an average of 1.034 % in March's auction to 1.907 % in Monday's. This is also despite the ECB announcing it had bought 13.96Bio in government bonds last week via its Securities Markets Programme (SMP). This compares with 13.3BIo the week before. The 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds are now at 5.50 % and 5.22 % respectively, slowly creeping back up from the sub-5% levels the ECB action initially pushed them down to. This morning sentiment was buoyed by a FT story that Italy has asked China to buy its debt. United Kingdom No major releases.
Bank of England view The stance of the MPC has shifted; elevated inflation does not appear overly concerning. Given the subdued outlook for the UK economy, we expect the BoE to remain on hold until QIII 2012. ECB view The recent deterioration in Eurozone economic indicators suggests that the ECB will pause its process of monetary policy normalisation. We expect the ECB to remain on hold until QII 2012.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

CHINA & JAPAN

Japan
In response to the recent natural disasters, the Bank of Japan has implemented further quantitative easing measures. Monetary policy in Japan is likely to remain accommodative for some time.

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

The Week Ahead

Calendar - Australasia, Japan and China
Time Date Mon 12 Sep AEST Econ Event 09:50 11:30 Tue 13 Sep 08:45 08:45 08:45 10:00 11:30 11:30 Wed 14 Sep ~ 10:30 11.30 14:30 14:30 Thu 15 Sep 07:00 07:00 08:30 Fri 16 Sep 10:01 11:00 11:00 Period Unit Last Forecast Market CBA

JP BOJ to publish minutes of August. 4-5 board meeting AU Trade balance NZ Food prices NZ Manufacturing activity NZ Manufacturing activity volume s.a. NZ QV house prices AU NAB business confidence AU NAB business conditions CBA releases Viewpoint report on natural AU disasters AU MI/WBC consumer confidence AU Dwelling commencements JP Industrial production JP Capacity utilization NZ RBNZ official cash rate NZ RBNZ monetary policy statement NZ Business NZ PMI CH China manpower survey NZ ANZ consumer confidence index NZ ANZ consumer confidence Jul Aug QII QII Aug Aug Aug ~ Sep QII Jul F Jul Sep Sep Aug 4Q Sep Sep AUD bn m%ch q%ch q%ch y%ch Index Index ~ m%ch q%ch m%ch y%ch m%ch % ~ Index % Index m%ch 2.1 2.0 2.9 1.9 -0.4 2.0 -1.0 ~ -3.5 2.7 0.6 -2.8 5.2 2.5 ~ 53.2 19.0 113.3 3.6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -2.0 ~ ~ ~ 2.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 1.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Calendar North America & Europe

Please note all days and times are UK time, not local release day/times UK Date Time Econ Event Period Unit Last Forecast Market CBA

Mon 12 Sep

14:30 21:00

EC ECB announces bond purchases US Fed's Fisher speaks on monetary policy in Dallas UK RICS house price balance UK Visible trade balance UK CPI UK Core CPI UK RPI US Import price index SZ Producer and import prices UK Claimant count rate UK Jobless claims change EC Industrial production CA Capacity utilization rate US Producer price index US PPI ex food & energy US Advance retail sales US Retail sales less autos US Business inventories EC ECB's Bini Smaghi speaks in Rome SZ Industrial Production QII q%ch -9.2 2.3 ~ Aug Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Jul QII Aug Aug Aug Aug Jul % mn y%ch y%ch m%ch m%ch m%ch % 000 m%ch % y%ch y%ch % % % -22.0 -8,873 4.4 3.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.7 4.9 37.1 -0.8 79.0 7.2 2.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 ~ -8,700 4.5 2.9 0.6 -0.7 -0.4 5.0 35.0 1.6 ~ 6.4 2.6 0.2 0.2 0.5 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Tue 13 Sep 00:01 09:30 09:30 09:30 09:30 13:30 Wed 14 Sep 08:15 09:30 09:30 10:00 13:30 13:30 13:30 13:30 13:30 15:00 Thu 15 Sep 08:00 08:15 08:30 08:30 09:30 09:30 10:00 10:00 10:00 13:30 13:30 13:30

SZ Swiss Central Bank holds monetary policy assessment SZ SNB 3-month LIBOR target rate UK Retail sales ex auto fuel UK Retail sales w/auto fuel EC CPI - core EC CPI EC Employment CA Manufacturing sales US CPI US CPI ex food & energy Sep Aug Aug Aug Aug QII Jul Aug Aug % m%ch m%ch y%ch y%ch q%ch m%ch y%ch y%ch 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 2.5 0.1 -1.5 3.6 1.8 0.0 ~ -0.3 1.2 2.5 ~ 1.2 3.6 1.9 0.0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

13:30 13:30 13.45 14:15 14:15 15:00 17:30 19:00 Fri 16 Sep 09:00 10:00 11:30 14:00 14:55 17:00

US Empire manufacturing US Initial jobless and continuing claims

Sep Sep

Index 000

-7.72 ~

-2.95 ~

~ ~

US Feds Bernanke gives brief remarks at risk conference US Industrial production US Capacity utilization US Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey EC ECB's Stark speaks in Vienna Trichet Speaks at Eurofi Forum in EC Wroclaw, Poland EC ECB's Gonzalez-Paramo Speaks in Sofia EC Trade balance s.a. Jul bn -1.6 ~ ~ Aug Aug Sep m%ch % Index 0.9 77.5 -30.7 0.1 77.5 -15.0 ~ ~ ~

EC EU Finance Ministers, Ce tral Bankers meet in Wroclaw, Poland US Net long-term TIC flows University of Michigan consumer US confidence US Flow of funds Jul Sep P ~ USD bn Index ~ 3.7 55.7 ~ ~ ~ ~ 56.3 ~ ~

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

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Global Markets Research

Economics: Daily Alert

Research
Commodities Luke Mathews Lachlan Shaw Paul Hodsman, CFA Elise Aaternir Economics Michael Blythe Michael Workman John Peters James McIntyre Fixed Income Adam Donaldson Philip Brown Alex Stanley Michael Bors Steve Shoobert Winnie Chee Tally Dewan Kevin Ward Head of Debt Research Fixed Income Quantitative Strategist Associate Analyst, Fixed Income Credit Research Analyst Credit Research Analyst Securitised Product Quantitative Analyst Database Manager Chief Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist Agri Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Mining & Energy Commodities Telephone +612 9118 1098 +613 9675 8618 +613 9675 8532 +613 9675 6202 Telephone +612 9118 1101 +612 9118 1019 +612 9117 0112 +612 9118 1100 Telephone +612 9118 1095 +612 9118 1090 +612 9118 1125 +612 9118 1108 +612 9118 1096 +612 9118 1104 +612 9118 1105 +612 9118 1960 Telephone +612 9118 1106 +612 9118 1107 +65 6349 7056 +612 9117 1378 +44 20 7710 3918 Telephone +612 9118 1097 +612 9118 1102 Telephone ASB Chief Economist Economist Economist +649 301 5659 +649 301 5660 +649 301 5661 Email Address luke.mathews@cba.com.au lachlan.shaw@cba.com.au paul.hodsman@cba.com.au elise.aaternir@cba.com.au Email Address michael.blythe@cba.com.au michael.workman@cba.com.au john.peters@cba.com.au james.mcintyre@cba.com.au Email Address adam.donaldson@cba.com.au philip.brown@cba.com.au alex.stanley@cba.com.au borsma@cba.com.au steve.shoobert@cba.com.au winnie.chee@cba.com.au tally.dewan@cba.com.au kevin.ward@cba.com.au Email Address richard.grace@cba.com.au joseph.capurso@cba.com.au peter.dragicevich@cba.com.au andy.ji@cba.com.au chris.tennent.brown@cba.com.au martin.mcmahon@cba.com.au Email Address monica.eley@cba.com.au maca@cba.com.au Email Address nick.tuffley@asb.co.nz jane.turner@asb.co.nz christina.leung@asb.co.nz

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11