Trends

That Affect Housing

Montgomery County, MD

Research & Technology Center

Department of Park & Planning
Sources of Information

•2003 Census Update Survey

•Economic Forces Report
•Residential Capacity Study
•Various
Discussion Topics

•Population and Diversity

•Income and Housing
•Development
•Planning Issues
Population
and
Diversity
Population* Up 90,000 in 7 Years!

940,000 925,000
920,000
900,000
880,000
860,000
836,000
840,000
820,000
800,000
780,000
1997 2003

*July Total Population Including Group Quarters

 Change in 5-Year Age Groups
from 1990 to 2000
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
1990 population
70-74
65-69 Gains, 1990 - 2000
60-64
Losses, 1990 - 2000
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4

50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Males Females
Update
2003
 Average Household Size
5

Hispanic 4.02
4
3.55
Asian
3 2.98
2.70 County
2.37
White,NH
2

1
1997 2003
45% of Maryland’s Foreign-Born Population
Reside in Montgomery County in 2000

174,838 232,996

2000 Foreign-born
33.7% Population
45.0%
Montgomery
21.3% Prince George's
Remainder

110,481

Total Foreign Born in Maryland: 518,315

Update
2003
 The Population Is Growing
and Becoming More Diverse
Annual Growth Rate Minority Share of
24,000 Population Growth
140%
125%
18,000 17,585 120%
16,000
100%
12,000 11,630 80%
60% 52%
6,000 5,680 40%
20%
0 0%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1980-1990 1990-2000

Minority population gained 145,400 compared to 116,300

increase in total population between 1990 and 2000.
Update
2003
 Growing Minority Population
Across the Decade
Race: 64.8
White 76.7
15.1
Black or African American 12.2
11.3
Asian & Pacific Islander 8.2
5.3
Other Race 2.9 2000
3.4 1990
Two or more races*

Hispanic or Latino 11.5

(may be of any race) 7.4

0 20 40 60 80 100
* New category in 2000 Census Percent of total population
Census
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
2000
 Percent Population by Race

Percent
80

66.3
60 60.2
White,NH
Black
40
Asian
Hispanic
20

0
1997 2003
 Percent Population Foreign-born
Percent
80
Asian
69.8
60 59.1
Hispanic

40
Black 30.1
25%
County
20
White,NH
8.8
0
1997 2003
Income
and
Housing
 Income Rises!
(Median Household Income)
$90,000

$79,115

$80,000
$75,227
In 2002 Constant Dollars
$70,000

$60,000
1996 2002
 Increase at the Extremes of
Household Income Since 1989
Percent of Households Median HH Income:
1999 $71,551
1989 1999 1989 $70,200 (adjusted)
25% 23%
20%
20% 18%
17% 17%
15% 15%
15% 13% 13%
12%
10% 8% 8%
6%
5%
5% 3%
4% 3%
2%
0%
Less $10k to $15k to $25k to $35k to $50k to $75k to $100k $150k
than $14k $24k $34k $49k $74k $99k to or more
$10k $149k
Household income brackets adjusted for inflation
Update
2003
 Montgomery County’s Poverty Rate
is Below the State’s in 2000
Baltimore city 22.9%
Somerset 20.1%
Allegany 14.8%
Dorchester 13.8%
Garrett 13.3%
Kent 13.0%
Wicomico 12.8%
Caroline 11.7%
Worcester 9.6%
Washington 9.5%
MARYLAND 8.5%
Talbot 8.3%
Prince George's 7.7%
St. Mary's 7.2%
Cecil 7.2%
Baltimore 6.5%
Queen Anne 6.3%
Charles 5.5%
Montgomery
*Anne Arundel 5.4% * 47,024 County residents live below poverty level
5.1%
Harford 4.9%
Frederick 4.5%
Calvert 4.4%
Howard 3.9%
Carroll 3.8%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2000 Poverty Rate (All Individuals) Update
2003
 Median Income of Movers*
to Montgomery
$90,000
$80,000 82,000
$70,000 71,300

$60,000 White,NH
$50,000 51,200
Black
45,900
$40,000 Asian
$30,000 Hispanic
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1996 2002

*Moved to Montgomery in previous 5 years

 Home Ownership Up
Montgomery County, MD
Percent
80
77.3

71.2
70

60
1997 2003
 Home Ownership Up for All Groups!
Percent
100
White,NH
80 77% County
Asian
Hispanic
60
Black
40

20

0
1997 2003
Development
Residential Market Indicators
Are Strong
 Number of housing sales
continues upward trend
16,534
Number of housing sales 15,489 15,372
14,723 14,779
13,088

10,357
9,403

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: MRIS
 Housing units continue
to sell quickly
Days on the market
111

55
45
29 26 27

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Sources: MRIS, COG
 2003 brings marked increase
in most home prices
New Single Family Detached (SFD)
$600,000
Median Prices
$500,000

$400,000 Existing SFD

$300,000
New Townhouse
$200,000
Existing Townhouse
$100,000

$0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: M-NCPPC Research &
Technology Center
Most single-family homes now cost
over $300,000
$350,000
Median price of single-family home
$300,000

$250,000

$200,000

$150,000

$100,000

$50,000
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source: M-NCPPC Research &
Technology Center
 Existing townhouses still affordable.
1.8
Affordability index Existing Townhouse
1.6
1.4
1.2 New Townhouse
1
0.8
Existing Single Family
0.6
0.4 New Single Family
0.2
0
90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
19

20

20

20

20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

The higher the score, the more affordable the

Source: M-NCPPC Research & housing is. A score of 1 means the monthly
Technology Center cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.
 Housing is less affordable
Low interest rates help, but price hikes dominate.

1.2 Affordability index for existing Montgomery County homes

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20
The higher the score, the more affordable the
Source: M-NCPPC Research & housing is. A score of 1 means the monthly
Technology Center cost of buying a home equals 28% of gross income.
 Mortgage rates continue to fall
30 year fixed effective mortgage interest rate
12.0%

10.0% Trend
8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%
1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003
Source: Federal Home Loan
Bank Board.
 Apartment market still tight with
vacancy rates steady at 3.8%
5% Vacancy rate
4.4% 4.2%
3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
4%
3.0%
3% 2.5%
1.8%
2%

1%

0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Montgomery County Office of

Landlord-Tenant Affairs
 Multi-family units are a larger
share of home construction
8,500
7,500 Housing completions, in units.

6,500
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500 Single-Family Detached
1,500
Townhouse
500 Multi-family

-500
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Source; M-NCPPC Research & Housing completions totaled
Technology Center almost 5,500 units for both 2002 and 2003
 In 2003, multi-family approvals
outnumbered single-family units 4-1
Single-family:
1,192 units

Multi-family:
4,871 units

Subdivision approvals in 2003 by units. Source; M-NCPPC

Research & Technology Center
 Major 2003 completions include:
™ Avalon at Grosvenor Station 497
™ King Farm 491
™ Traville East Village 430
™ Kings Crossing 250
™ Fallsgrove 223
™ Clarksburg Town Center 202
™ Lakelands 175

Source; M-NCPPC Research & In units

Technology Center
 Development
Patterns and Implications
Planning Issues
Income

Update
2003
1999 Median Household Income
by U.S. Census Tracts
Montgomery Couty, MD 1999 Median HH Income: $71,551

.
-
,270

"
!
97

(
/
29

Government Service Centers

1999 Median Household Income
$31,875 - $52,593
$52,594 - $68,652
$68,653 - $88,371
.
-
,495

$88,372 - $124,487
$124,488 - $200,001
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 U.S. Census SF3
Research & Technology Center, M-NCPPC
.
-
,
495 Census
2000
 Gain in Upper Income Households
Tempered by Shrinking Middle Brackets
Change in percentage of households from 1989 to 1999
4% 3.2%
3%
2%
1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
0%
-0.2% -0.5% -0.1%
-1%
-2% -1.6%
-3% -2.2%

-4%
Less $10k to $15k to $25k to $35k to $50k to $75k to $100k to $150k or
than $14k $24k $34k 49k 74k $99k $149k more
$10k
Household income brackets adjusted for inflation
Update
2003
Percent of Households Where Monthly
Housing Costs Exceed 35% HH Income
1999 Median Housing Cost
Percent of Specified Households Own: $1,577
40% Rent: $914
35%
30%
30% 27%
25%
20% 15%
14%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied

1990 2000
Census
Update
2000
2003
 Increasing Numbers of Families
Live in Poverty in 2000
Number of Families Below Poverty Level 1999 Poverty Threshold for
Family of 4 with 2 children: $16,895
12,000
10,641
10,000
8,428
8,000 7,507
6,872
6,000 5,514
4,750
4,000
2,000 1,688
1,141
2.7% 3.7% 3.7% 5.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.2% 3.0%
0
Montgomery Prince George's Howard Fairfax

1989 1999

Update
2003
Housing Affordability
 What it takes to buy a home

Median Income
Type of Housing Sales Price Needed

New Single Family Detached $563,810 $187,937

Existing Single Family Detached $376,000 $125,333
New Single Family Attached $358,553 $119,518
Existing Single Family Attached $223,000 $74,333
All Single Family $315,000 $105,000
Current MPDU Income Limits

Household
Size: Maximum:
1 $38,000
2 $42,000
3 $47,000
4 $52,000
5 $56,000
 Rents continue upward trend
$1,200 $1,111
$1,076
$1,030
$928
$871
$900
$726

$600

$300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Turnover rents
 Vacancy Rates remain tight
5% 4.4% 4.2%
4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.8%
3.0%
3% 2.5%
2% 1.8%

1%

0%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs

 What it takes to rent an apartment

Bedroom 2003 Percent Monthly Income Annual Income

Size Rent Change Needed to be Needed to be
over 2002 Affordable Affordable
0 $869 2.4% $2,897 $34,760
1 $990 2.1% $3,300 $39,600
2 $1,162 3.8% $3,873 $46,480
3 $1,448 3.7% $4,827 $57,920
4+ $1,612 4.6% $5,373 $64,480
Countywide $1,111 3.3% $3,703 $44,440
 11,483 MPDUs
Produced Through 2003
From 1976 to 2003, Montgomery County produced 11,483 MPDUs.
Rockville has added another 456 since 1999.
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0

02
90

92

94

96

98

00
76

78

80

82

84

86

88
19

19

19

19

19

20

20
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

For Sale Rental Rockville MPDUs

MPDUs Provide Almost Half County
Supported Affordable Housing
14,000
12,000 11,483 11,450
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
1,771
2,000
0
MPDUs Subsidized Housing Other Moderate
(Low & Very Low Income Housing
Income)
Subsidized and other moderate income housing
include over 2,000 HOC and nonprofit MPDUs.
MPDUs Are Well Dispersed by
Policy Area In Combined rural area total is
The County less than 100.
Damascus

Key:
>10
10 - 99
Mont. Village
Rural Areas 100 – 249
And Clarksburg
Gaithersburg Olney 250 – 499
Vicinity 500 – 999
Aspen Hill 1,000 – 1,499
Rockville
1,500 – 1,999
Fairland
K-W >2,000
Rockville is not part of the
Potomac
County MPDU Program, Silver Spring
BCC
but it has produces 456
MPDUs since 1999.
Age

Update
2003
 Percent Population Change by Age
2000-2010
Percent Change in Population
50%

40%

30%
21%
20% 19%
13%
10% 8%
5% 4%
0%

-10%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+
Age Groups
Source: Washington COG Round 6.3 Forecast
Update
2003
 Percent Population Change by Age
2010-2020
Percent Change in Population
50%

40%

30% 25%

20%

10% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6%

0%

-10%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+
Age Groups
Source: Washington COG Round 6.3 Forecast
Update
2003
 Population Under 18 Years Is Growing
Rapidly and More Diverse
Percent change in population Minority population
80% under 18 years of age
70%
60% 75%

50%
40%
Total population
30% under 18 years of age
20%
10% 24 %

0%
Update
2003
 % Households with Children
Under 18
Percent
80
Hispanic
58.7
Asian 52.5
60
50.2
Black
38.1% County
40 31.8
White,NH

20

0
1997 2003
 One Out of Eight Montgomery County Residents
Age 5+ Speaks English Less than Very Well
* Montgomery
Prince George's 53,743
105,001 *
Baltimore Co 25,526
Baltimore City 18,113
Anne Arundel 11,416
Howard 11,063
Harford 3,413
Frederick 2,939
Wicomico 2,324
Charles 1,928
Carroll 1,737
St. Mary's 1,525
Washington 1,318
Cecil 862
Worcester 858
Calvert 774
Caroline 614
Talbot 591 12.9% of County residents age 5+ speak English less than very well
Allegany 585
Queen Anne's 562
Dorchester 419
Kent 367
Somerset 333
Garrett 276

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Number Speaking English Less than Very Well (Ages 5 & Over) Update
2003
 Age & Sex Distribution:
2000
Age
85 & over
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
under 5

45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000

Females Males
Population: 873,341 Update
2003
 Age & Sex Distribution:
2010
Age
85 & over
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
under 5

45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000

Females Males
Population: 975,000 Update
2003
 Age & Sex Distribution:
2020
Age
85 & over
80 - 84
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
under 5

45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000

Females Males
Population: 1,050,000 Update
2003
Disabilities

Update
2003
 65+ Population Accounts for
One-Third of the Total Disabilities Tallied
Type of Disability
Age 5+ Sensory Age 65+
Disabilities Tallied: 186,580 Disabilities Tallied: 60,968

10% Physical
16%
24% 26%
Mental
21%
Self-Care
11% 34%
23% Go-Outside-
15% Home
7% 13%
Employment
Disabled Population: 107,808 Disabled Population: 30,541
Census
Update
2000
2003
Household Composition

Update
2003
 Shrinking Share of Married-Couple
Households as Non-Family Households Gain
% of All Households
100% 6% 7% 7%
14%
21% 22% 24%
80% 8%
76% 12%
60% 13% 14%
62%
58% 55%
40%

20%

0%
1970 1980 1990 2000

Married-Couple Single-Parent Living Alone Other Nonfamily

Update
2003
Percentages of Households With Children and
Older Adults Increase
% of All Households
40% 36.8%
35.1%
119,587
98,949
30%
21.2%
19.4% 1990
20% 68,919
54,772 2000

10%

0%
With Children Under 18 With Someone Age 65+
Households
Update
2003
Percent of Married-Couple Families With
Children by Race/Hispanic Origin in 2000
Percent of All Households
Other Race
43.6%
Hispanic
40.5%
Asian
40.1%
Two or more
30.6%
Total White
26.7%
White, Non-Hispanic
26.1%
Amer Ind
23.6%
Black
20.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Married-Couple Families with Children
Update
2003
Diversity

Update
2003
White Non-Hispanic Households Occupy 79%
of all Detached Homes
100 Percent

80 79%
White,NH
60 NH White
NH Black
40 NH Asian
Hispanic
20

0
1997 2003
A Declining Share of NHWhites Households
Occupy Townhouses
100Percent

80

60
58.7%
White,NH
40

20 Black 17.1%
Asian 12.5%
9.4%
0 Hispanic
1997 2003
 More Diversity Among Households
in Garden Apartments
100Percent

80

60
56.5%
White,NH
40
Black
20.9%
20 Hispanic 11.1%
Asian 8.7%
0
1997 2003
 Percent of Homeowners Paying More
Than 30% of Income on Housing Costs
Percent
60

40

20
13.4
11.3

0
1997 2003
Percent Homeowners Paying More Than 30%
of Income on Housing Costs
Percent
40
32.6%

19.9%

20 18.6%
13.4% County
10.4%

0
1997 2003
 Percent Renters Paying More Than 30% of
Income on Housing Costs
Montgomery County, MD

60 Percent

50

40 County
37.5

30
27.9

20
1997 2003
 Percent Renters Paying More Than 30% of
Income on Housing Costs
50 Percent
Hispanic 48.3

Black 42.7
40
37.5 County
Asian 35.4
33.2
30

White,NH

20
1997 2003
 Population Under 18 Years Is Growing
Rapidly and More Diverse
Percent change in population Minority population
80% under 18 years of age
70%
60% 75%

50%
40%
Total population
30% under 18 years of age
20%
10% 24 %

0%
Update
2003
Percent of Married-Couple Families With
Children by Race/Hispanic Origin in 2000
Percent of All Households
Other Race
43.6%
Hispanic
40.5%
Asian
40.1%
Two or more
30.6%
Total White
26.7%
White, Non-Hispanic
26.1%
Amer Ind
23.6%
Black
20.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Married-Couple Families with Children
Update
2003
 Hispanic Movers to Montgomery
Have Lower Incomes!
(Constant 2003 Dollars)
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$52,580
$50,000 $46,960
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
1996 2002
The Digital Divide

Update
2003
 We Are a Digital Community!

In 2003 of all Households:

™ 85% Own a Computer

™ 66% have at-home Web Access

 County Computer Ownership & Internet
Access Widely Leads U.S. Rates in 2003
% Households
100%
87% U.S. County 81%
80% 68%
61%
60%

40%

20%

0%
Computer Ownership Internet Access

Update
2003
 Computer Ownership
Percent
100
95
90
Asian
85 County 85%
Hispanic
80 White,NH
75
Black
70
65
60
55
50
1997 2003
 At Home Internet Access

90

80

70
County 66% Asian Hispanic
60
White,NH
50

40 Black

30
1997 2003
Growth and Development
 County’s Population Hits
1 Million Mark in 2010
Population
1,200,000 Forecast
1,000,000
1,000,000

931,000
800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20
70

75

80

85

90

95

00

05

10

15

20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census; COG Round 6.4 Forecast
Update
2003
 Montgomery County Growth Trends
1985 – 2030
(COG Round 6.4 Forecasts)
1,200,000

Population 1,100,000
1,000,000

800,000
655,000
600,000 Jobs
400,000 420,000
200,000 Households
0
85 90 95 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Montgomery County Population Forecast by
Total population
Age Groupings
300,000

250,000

200,000
2000
150,000 2010
2020
100,000

50,000

0
0-4 5-19 20-34 35-44 45-64 65+
Age Groups
Source: Washington COG Round 6.3 Forecast
Update
2003
 Overview…

i One million people by end of decade

i Growth fueled by immigrants and racial/ethnic diversity
i Defined by aging baby boomers and new residents – young,
well educated, families with children, often foreign born
i Most households are affluent and very well-educated
i Increasing special needs population – mosaic of varying
language abilities, disabled persons, and those facing
poverty
i Challenged by most expensive housing costs in Maryland
Update
2003