Math 331.

5: Homework 7
Solutions
1. Consider the population model
dP
dt
= 0.4P
_
1
P
230
_
where P(t) is the population at time t.
(i) For what values of P is the population in equilibrium?
dP
dt
= 0 0.4P
_
1
P
230
_
= 0
0.4P = 0 or
_
1
P
230
_
= 0
P = 0 or P = 230
The population is in equilibrium if P = 0 or P = 230.
(ii) Draw a phase line diagram and use to it sketch some solutions.
0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
Figure 1
(iii) Describe the behavior of solutions as t .
All solutions with initial condition P
0
> 0 converge to the equilibrium solution P(t) = 230.
2
2. The logistic model has been applied to the growth of halibut populations in certain areas of the
Pacic Ocean, where the size of the population is measured by the total mass (biomass) of the sh.
It is estimated that r = 0.7/year and the carrying capacity is K = 80 10
6
kilograms. Suppose the
initial biomass is P
0
= 0.25K.
(i) Find the biomass 2 years later.
We use the logistic equation
P(t) =
KP
0
e
rt
K +P
0
(e
rt
1)
where P is the population measured in millions of kilograms (for simplicity). Then r = 0.7,
K = 80 and P
0
= 0.25K = 20. The equation becomes
P(t) =
80 20e
0.7t
80 + 20(e
0.7t
1)
=
1600e
0.7t
80 + 20e
0.7t
20
=
80e
0.7t
3 +e
0.7t
The population after two years is P(2). Substituting into the equation, we have
P(2) =
80e
0.72
3 +e
0.72
46
Remembering that we are working in millions of kilograms, after two years, the population
is 46 10
6
kilograms.
(ii) Find the time when the population reaches 75% of the carrying capacity.
We want to nd the time t when P(t) = 0.75K = 60. So we solve for t in the equation
60 =
80e
0.7t
3 +e
0.7t
Multiplying both sides by 3 +e
0.7t
gives
60(3 +e
0.7t
) = 80e
0.7t
180 + 60e
0.7t
= 80e
0.7t
180 = 20e
0.7t
9 = e
0.7t
Now to get the t out of the exponent, we take the natural log of both sides and use the
property that ln e
x
= x. We have
ln 9 = ln e
0.7t
ln 9 = 0.7t
t = (ln 9)/0.7 3.1
So, the population reaches the desired level in about 3 years.
3
3. Suppose that the population P of sh in a given area is described by the logistic equation
dP
dt
= r
_
1
P
K
_
P
Assume that the rate at which sh are caught is given by EP, where E is a positive constant that
measures the total eort made to harvest the sh. Then the dierential equation becomes
dP
dt
= r
_
1
P
K
_
P EP
Assume that E < r.
(i) Find the equilibrium points. Draw a phase line diagram and use it to classify each equi-
librium as stable or unstable.
dP
dt
= 0 r
_
1
P
K
_
P EP = 0
P
_
r
_
1
P
K
_
E
_
= 0
P
_

r
K
P +r E
_
= 0
P = 0 or
r
K
P +r E = 0
P = 0 or P =
K(r E)
r
0 K(r-E)/r
Figure 2
The equilibrium solution P = 0 is unstable and the equilibrium P =
K(rE)
r
is asymptot-
ically stable.
(ii) What would happen to the population if E > r?
If E > r then
K(rE)
r
< 0 and so, while this is an equilibrium point for the dierential
equation, it doesnt make sense in the context of the problem. From the phase line, we see
that the equilibrium P = 0 is now asymptotically stable. This means that as time passes,
any sh will population will die out. Thus, E > r corresponds to overshing.
0 K(r-E)/r
Figure 3
4
(iii) A sustainable yield Y is a rate at which sh can be caught indenitely. It is the product
of the eort E and the asymptotically stable population P = K EK/r. Graph Y as a
function of E.
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
Figure 4. Y =
EK(rE)
r
(iv) Find the eort E that will maximize the sustainable yield Y .
The maximum value of Y is attained at the vertex of the parabola Y =
EK(rE)
r
.
dY
dt
= 0 K
2K
r
E = 0
E = r/2
Thus, the maximum sustainable yield is Y = rK/4 which is attained at an eort of
E = r/2.
4. Daniel Bernoullis work in 1760 had the goal of appraising the eectiveness of a controversial
inoculation program against smallpox, which at that time was a major threat to public health. Let
P(t) be the proportion of people born in a given year (t = 0) who have not had smallpox by year t.
If is the rate at which susceptible people contract smallpox and is the rate at which people who
contract smallpox die from the disease, Bernoulli showed that P satises the dierential equation
dP
dt
= P(1 P)
(i) Find a formula for P(t). Assume that people are not born with smallpox, so P(0) = 1.
Separating variables,
1
P(1 P)
dP = dt
5
Integrating,
(1)
_
1
P(1 P)
dP =
_
dt
Using partial fractions on the left hand side,
1
P(1 P)
=
1
P
+

1 P
The integral becomes
_
1
P(1 P)
dP =
_ _
1
P
+

1 P
_
dP
= ln |P| ln |1 P| +C
= ln

P
1 P

+C
Then (1) becomes
ln

P
1 P

= t +C
P
1 P
= Ce
t
Using the initial condition P(0) = 1,
1
1
= C
So,
P
1 P
=
e
t
1
Solving for P,
P =
e
t
1 +e
t
(ii) Bernoulli estimated that = = 1/8. Using these values, estimate the proportion of 20
year olds who have not had smallpox.
The equation becomes
P =
e
t/8
1 1/8 + (1/8)e
t/8
Substituting t = 20,
P(20) =
e
20/8
1 1/8 + (1/8)e
20/8
0.093
6
5. Consider a population of rhinoceros in a certain preserve. The maximum population the envi-
ronment can support is size K and if the population is more than K, the rhinoceroses will start to
die o. On the other hand, if the population is too small, fertile adults will have diculty nding
each other when it is time to mate. Let T be this threshold population below which the rhinoceroses
have a hard time nding each other. Then the population P(t) at time t can be modeled by the
modied logistic equation
dP
dt
= r
_
1
P
T
__
1
P
K
_
P
where r > 0 is the intrinsic growth rate of rhinoceros and 0 < T < K.
(i) Graph the rate function f(P) =
dP
dt
and draw a phase line diagram for P.
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2 2.4 2.8 3.2
-1.6
-0.8
0.8
1.6
2.4
T K
Figure 5. f(P) = r
_
1
P
T
_ _
1
P
K
_
P
T K 0
Figure 6
(ii) Find all equilibrium solutions and classify them as stable or unstable.
dP
dt
= 0 r
_
1
P
T
__
1
P
K
_
P = 0
7
P = 0 or P = T or P = K
P = 0 and P = K are stable and P = T is unstable.
(iii) Sketch the general behavior of solutions. What happens to the population if the initial
value P(0) = P
0
is below the threshold level T? What if P
0
is above the carrying capacity
K?
0 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4 4.8 5.6
-0.5
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
K
T
Figure 7
If P
0
< T, the rhinoceroses will die o. If T < P
0
< K, the population will increase
and approach the carrying capacity. If P
0
> K, the population will decrease and level o
toward K.