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The triumph of good guys over bad is still the popular picture of British history, invented by Whig historians in the nineteenth century. Liberty defeated tyranny and Protestants beat Catholics in a predetermined victory that made Britain unique. Historical opponents of this inevitable triumph were sidelined as lost causes. Jeremy Black argues that history is more complex and stressed the role of chance.
It is totally misleading to present history as if its course was inevitable. The past cannot be understood if the elements of chance and contingency are ignored. To assume that what happened was bound to happen the teleological interpretation of history is fundamentally misleading. This approach takes away the options facing individuals, groups and governments in the past. It is analytically suspect, and also morally suspect, because it is wrong to argue that the past belong to the victors. That is a version of the might is right approach, the criminals' charter of history, which reduces to impotence and inconsequence those who were, and are, weak or unsuccessful. Both British and foreign history are littered with instances in which it is dangerous to assume that developments were inevitable. I will refer to some of the most important later, but first it is necessary to note that the purpose of such an exercise is not simply that of turning individual episodes on their head but, more generally, a call for a fundamentally different approach to history. The traditional Whiggish stance was one way of tackling what many saw as the purpose of history explaining how 'we came to be 'here'. This commonly assumed that 'we' was unproblematic for example that the identity and coherence of the English and the French were clear-cut. There was also a clear assumption that the course of history was a matter of progress, indeed that a degree of triumphalism was appropriate: the past as a suitable and heroic reflection of the present. Present-mindedness (discussion of the past in terms of present values and concerns) was a characteristic of this work. Thus British popular historians explained how Britain had come to have a Protestant identity, respect for property and the rule of law. They adopted a nationalistic self-confidence that combined a patriotic sense of national qualities and uniqueness with an often xenophobic attitude towards foreigners, especially Catholics.
briefly. This can also be seen in the style of writing: there is a staccato of active assertion in place of the more realistic balancing equivocations of subordinate clauses and the passive tense. In addition, there is a process of aggregation, or simplification, that eases the difficulties of lengthy explanation. Groups are presented clearly, for example the peasantry, the aristocracy and the middle class, and each is seen as united and operating in a clear fashion. Similarly, bodies such as the government or Parliament, interests such as 'mercantile influence' and 'public opinion', periods such as the 1590s, developments such as 'policy', and situations such as culture or socio-economic structure, are presented as clear and distinct activities, influences, eras and bodies whose conscious interaction determined events. This culminates in the understandable, but inaccurate, use of countries and peoples as shorthand terms for complex and often confusing processes of decision-making. The relationship between institution or group and opinion is another vexed problem. Furthermore, there is a strong tendency to consolidate and reify ideas and attitudes, and terms such as reactionary, conservative, liberal, progressive and radical are applied far too readily. Instead, the nature and influence of such ideas altered considerably and often involved controversy. They require continual reassessment in any wide-ranging study, but space rarely permits this. In addition, it is necessary to be cautious in suggesting that policies arose or events happened because of ideas. It is important to explain the process by which these ideas were influential.
Sources
Students now use sources from the past far more than previously. They capture the flavour of contemporary opinion and indicate the way in which people thought and expressed themselves. Documents present problems: they were intended to persuade and can mislead. However, sources enable one to grasp the uncertainties of the past, the roles of chance and perception in societies that did not know what was going to happen. Sources restore a human perspective to an historical imagination too often dominated by impersonal forces. That can lead to greater difficulties in posing and answering questions of the relationships between change and continuity, the short term and the longue duree. But what history teaches is humane scepticism: the difficulties of comprehension and the problems with clear-cut, schematic interpretations. As a subject, history is, therefore, apposed to the clarity of ideology. It is not an unbroken mirror reflecting our views, but a fractured glass with pieces missing or opaque, and a general pattern that is difficult to distinguish and impossible to do so to general satisfaction.
Inevitabilities
Military history is the most obvious field in which it is dangerous to adopt the perspective of hindsight. War-gamers devote their time to an entirely reasonable pastime, asking whether battles, campaigns and conflicts could have had different results. Could the Jacobites have won, the British have defeated the American Revolutionaries or the Confederates triumphed in the American Civil War? Recent work has thrown doubt on any determinist technological approach to the history of warfare, and the role of chance and contingent factors of terrain, leadership quality, morale, the availability of reserves and the unpredictable spark that ignites a powder magazine, appear crucial when explaining particular engagements. War is not always won by the big battalions and the determinist economic account that would explain success in international relations in terms of the economic strength of particular states,
the approach essentially adopted in Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (1988), is open to serious question. There is also a lack of inevitability in internal affairs. Thus, the constitutional, political and religious trajectories of individual states and nations were far from necessary. It was not inevitable that Britain would become Protestant, while Ireland and France remained Catholic. It was not inevitable that the Stuarts would be less successful than the other newly powerful dynasties of the early-seventeenth century, the Romanovs in Russia and the Bourbons in France. It was not inevitable that the Westminster Parliament would survive and grow in power and authority when other constitutional bodies were suppressed or became less influential.
Lost Causes
The royalists lost in France or did they? Republican radicalism did not survive the 1790s and the rise of Napoleon, while the Bourbons returned in 1814 and, more successfully, 1815. Similarly, the Habsburg state in Spain is generally presented as in crisis and decline in the early-seventeenth century. There is a massive and famous study by J. H Elliott on the revolt of the Catalans in 1640, but no comparable work on the conquest of Catalonia. Spain still ruled the largest empire in the world in 1700 and was subsequently to enjoy a revival in strength under Philip V and Charles III. Yet that is generally forgotten or treated as inconsequential in accounts focused on the decline of Spain.'Lost causes' are often the product of historiographical orthodoxies that can be challenged. Yet there are also genuinely 'lost' causes. These are specific, such as a greater Armenia including much of modern Turkey or the world of the central and eastern-European Jews, and more general, for example the world of crown, church and aristocracy that dominated so much of Europe until 1917. Even if details of such a world can be preserved or restored, the attitudes of clear superiority and, especially prior to the late-eighteenth century, little serious criticism are gone. Such a shift can be treated as a failure reflecting inherent weakness and redundancy, but that is not a very helpful approach. For example, Spain is generally held to have been in 'decline' from c.1600, but of course
remained a mighty empire for another two centuries. By the standards of the modern world that is a considerable achievement. Aside from the issue of longevity, it is also the case that the world of the past was the world of what have been judged successes and failures in hindsight, and often only in hindsight. To neglect the latter is to present an incomplete account that makes no sense of what have been judged successful. It is a major challenge for writers and teachers to know how best to incorporate both dimensions. Yet each, their relationships, difficulties of assessing success and failure, and the problems and dangers in assuming that such differences were necessary and inevitable, have all to be present to help the student seeking to recover the past in order to understand both it and the present.