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Case study of Ningxia planned ecological migration

Lailai Li
Stockholm Environment Institute lailai.li@sei.se 15-16 September 2011, ADB

Presentation
Key impact of climate change leading to migration Planned migration as a development poverty reduction & ecological recover strategy Preliminary assessment of impacts of planned migration Policy recommendations

Key climate impacts leading to ecological migration

Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

A population: 6.25 million, 55% living in rural and 35% as Hui minority ethnic group Area: 66,400 km2
Bordering with 3 deserts in east, west and north, totaling ~ 100,000 km2 Low rainfall ~350mm & high evaporation ~2000mm

Ningxia

Shizhuishan

Zhongwei

CC impacts & risks felt CC symptoms recognized a) Change in precipitation pattern b) Increased incidence & magnitude of drought c) Increased incidence & magnitude of damaging floods d) Changes in hydrology and reduced water availability e) Higher temperature

Key impactsBuilt climate change of Economic Public

Ecosystems systems System Yields of winter crops dropped or disappeared Rain-fed agriculture affected Rain-fed agriculture affected health Land degradation & desertification Grassland degradation

Risks to human wellbeing caused by climate change

Livelihoods of people & community Cropping systems shifted Income Reduced Housing damaged Livelihoods lost People Water quality displaced & water related health Resettlement difficulties disease Health problems from seat Higher cost of living

Water erosion & land degradation Underground water table dropped badly Shift or change in distribution of habitats and

Infrastructure damaged

Irrigation systems lost sufficiency

Irrigated agriculture & industry affected

Survival of more crop disease & pests

Water resource, a threatening factor

Less water allocated from Yellow River (4 bm3 to 3 bm3) together with dropped the total runoff (58 bm3 to 53 bm3) Changed pattern of precipitation Further uneven distribution in time & space Incidence and magnitude of floods and drought growing Lower underground water table Water resource: ~200 m3/per capita, 14% of the national average Leaving central dry Ningxia unlivable.

Planned ecological migration

Planned ecological migration in Ningxia

The 11th five-year plan period (2006-2010): 180,000 people migrated
The 12th five-year plan period (2011-2012): 350,000 people to be migrated

Organized resettlement, close to water and roads

Closing originating villages for ecological recovery

Role of government
Planning & financing: Subsidized housing > 10000 + payment paid by farmers)

Infrastructure: running water, electricity and schools

Assistance for production: a greenhouse & a biogas digester

Training: 400/person
Compensating receiving communities

Role of communities/villagers migrated in/out

Farmers migrating out Negotiate and agree to leave home Buy new subsidized houses Learn new farming skills Adapt to new social/ cultural environment Managing old homes Receiving locations Sharing limited resources
Land
Water

Community support Resolving conflicts if they rise

Role of private or business sector

Negotiate with farmers and government for land and water use rights

Invest in water-saving agriculture

Pay efficient expensive irrigation cost Develop high value-added agricultural business Create jobs

Preliminary analysis of impacts of ecological migration

Planned ecological migration is site specific strategy

Planned migration is a site specific strategy of development & poverty reduction, compared to Kerqin desert of Inner Mongolia:
Climate conditions, seminar Geographic locations, Ningxia closer to infrastructure

Water resource, Kerqin is much better in underground water

Economic implications, migration cost higher in Kerqin

Economic impacts
Cost-effective, no infrastructure development cost For new migrants:
Expected household income for the year resettled:
Source of income Farming Produce from greenhouse Livestock Wage jobs in cities Total (in USD$)

Estimated Income Low High 6000 8000

4000 4000 4000 18000 ($2812) 5000 4000 5000 22000 ($3437)

Economic impacts (2)

Improved income opportunity from agriculture
Lower living cost, e.g. drinking water: 180/barrel Resettlement cost Slow acquiring new production skills required Uncertainty of losing land use rights

Receiving communities: sharing limited resources

Private investment in efficient agriculture, e.g. irrigation, in exchange for water & land use rights

Environmental impacts
The environment in the originating locations gets recovered naturally when human activities stopped

Human activities of conservation also stopped by the enclosure for recovery policy Environment pressure is increasing on the new locations due to increased demands for resource

Social impacts mixed and complex

Cultural diversity
New human resources Government resettlement programs as resources Psychological impacts of being displaced Sense of community Ethnic identify Harmony between different ethnic groups

Policy recommendations to Government of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region

Policy recommendations to Ningxia government on ecological migration

Science-based assessment of social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change under different climate change scenarios to support
development planning, and planning/decision making of migration

strategy of ecological recovery in migrated out areas and sustainable resource use in migrated in areas
Development of human resource expertise in supporting and managing ecological migration

Thanks