Cooper Square, Burton on Trent The Retail Opportunity April 2011

Contents
Catchment Analysis & Demographics Modelling of Burton upon Trent post development Benchmark Locations Gap Analysis

Catchment Analysis & Demographics

Burton upon Trents Retail Catchment - Summary

Market Shares
Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary TOTAL 79.0% 46.6% 13.1% 1.5% 11.0%

Shopper Population
Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary TOTAL 73,192 31,144 16,880 13,694 134,910

Source: CACI 2010

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Burton upon Trents Market Shares

Catchment Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary TOTAL Burton upon Trent Current Market Share 79.0% 46.6% 13.1% 1.5% 11.0% Average Centre Average Market Share 59.5% 37.5% 19.2% 2.5% 15.5% Market Share Index Average Centres=100 133 124 68 60 71
Source: CACI 2010

Burton upon Trent is classified as an Average Centre within CACIs Retail Footprint model. Within its primary and secondary sub-catchments, Burton upon Trent achieves higher market shares than the average for its location classification. Overall, Burton upon Trents catchment market share of 11.0% is below its location classification average of 15.5%, offering opportunities for growth in market share.

Burton upon Trents Market Shares

Market shares in the immediate catchment are vey high, falling away as is expected as distances and competition increases.

Source: CACI 2010

Burton upon Trents Retail Rankings - CACI

Retail Centre Bedford Lancaster Leamington Spa Gloucester Bicester Village Burton upon Trent Wood Green Chichester Kensington Swansea Southend on Sea Comp. Goods Expenditure (m) 332.8 330.3 329.0 328.5 324.4 322.2 318.8 318.2 316.6 315.4 313.7 National Ranking 88th 89th 90th 91st 92nd 93rd 94th 95th 96th 97th 98th Retail Centre Solihull Worcester Stoke /Hanley Hereford Leamington Spa Burton upon Trent Stafford Shrewsbury Telford Nuneaton Walsall Comp. Goods Expenditure (m) 466.9 461.3 427.5 346.4 329.0 322.2 282.6 278.3 277.9 254.0 214.9

Source: CACI 2010

West Midlands Ranking 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th

Burton upon Trents shopper population has a total of 322.2 million in available spend on comparison goods, according to CACIs Retail Footprint. On this basis Burton upon Trent is ranked 93rd nationally and 10th regionally.
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Burton upon Trents Retail Rankings Javelin

Retail Centre Kings Road Sutton Taunton Carlisle Warrington Burton upon Trent Sunderland Wimbledon Swansea Uxbridge Ilford Venuescore 186 186 185 183 183 182 181 179 178 178 175 National Ranking 78th 78th 80th 81st 81st 83rd 84th 85th 86th 86th 88th Retail Centre Wolverhampton Solihull Coventry Worcester Stoke on Trent Burton upon Trent Leamington Spa Hereford Nuneaton Shrewsbury Walsall Venuescore 220 217 214 201 196 182 175 169 161 158 141

Source: Javelin 2010

Regional Ranking 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th

Within Javelins Venuescore which focuses more on the scale and strength of the retail offer, Burton upon Trent is ranked 83rd nationally and 8th within the West Midlands region These rankings are based on a scoring system which takes into account the presence in each location of multiple retailers and do not account for available spend.
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Burton upon Trents Competing Centres

The adjacent map identifies key competing centres to Burton upon Trent alongside each centres retail ranking which is based on available comparison goods expenditure. Key centres shown are all ranked within the top 300 Retail Footprint centres. One of the primary reasons for Burton upon Trents high market shares in the primary and secondary sub-catchments, is the lack of convincing alternative retail centres in the immediate proximity.

Source: CACI 2010

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Burton upon Trents Leakage

This chart shows the market share from Burton upon Trents total retail catchment that is retained by Burton upon Trent, plus the market share that is leaked to competing centres. These leakage figures have been derived from CACIs comprehensive Retail Footprint model. Those centres that achieve a market share less than 2% have been excluded. Derby gains the greatest market share within Burton upon Trents catchment, 21%. The proposed additional retail space in Burton upon Trent with an appropriate retail offer would reduce this leakage and allow Burton upon Trent to retain a greater share of its market. Source: CACI 2010

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Burton upon Trents Acorn Profile

Source: CACI 2010

Secure Families are the largest Acorn group, accounting for 18% residents, in line with the regional average. Flourishing Families account for an additional 12% of the catchment and Wealthy Executives 11%.

These three dominant, department store shopper groups account for a combined 41% of the catchment population. This compares to 29% nationally.
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Burton upon Trents Acorn Distribution

Source: CACI 2010

The outer catchment shows an affluent consumer profile. It is key that Burton upon Trent has a relevant offer for this consumer, thereby reducing the need for them to travel elsewhere
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Retail Catchment Demographics

Burton upon Trents retail catchment has a stable demographic profile that is broadly in line with the national profile and therefore will appeal to mass market retailers. The social grade of the catchment is broadly in line with the regional and national average. At 23.7%, the AB social class group is slightly below the GB average of 24.9%, although above the regional average of 22.5%. Against the West Midlands average, Burton upon Trent has a similar percentage of 25 to 44 year olds (26.3% vs. 26.2%).
Source: CACI 2010
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Retail Catchment Demographics

Projected population growth for Burton upon Trents catchment is higher than both the regional and national average at 5% to 2015 and 10% to 2020. This significant population growth will help to support the additional retail space that is proposed. In terms of gross family income, 59.4% of the households earn more than 30,000 within Burton upon Trents catchment. This is above the West Midlands average of 53.6% and slightly below the GB average of 60.1%.

Source: CACI 2010

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Demographic and Economic Summary

Demographic
Catchment shopper population 134,910. Total catchment population 1,225,921. Total catchment market shares 11% (primary 79%, secondary 46.6%, tertiary 13.1%, quaternary 1.5%). Over penetration in primary and secondary market shares versus Average Centres. 23.7% ABs against a GB average of 24.9% and a regional average of 22.5%. Bias towards the more family orientated ACORN groups.

Economic
5 year GDP growth of 15.1% forecast to 2015 vs. UK average of 14.3%. 5 year disposable income growth of 11.8% forecast to 2015 vs. UK average of 11.2%. Unemployment at end 2010 for Shropshire & Staffordshire is forecast to be 7.1% versus 7.7% nationally. This is forecast to fall to 6.1% by 2015 compared to the UK average of 6.6%.
(Unless otherwise stated, the above economic data is at county council level Burton upon Trent falls into Staffordshire)

Source: CACI 2010 and Oxford Economics 2011

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Development Pipeline

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Development Pipeline
City / Town Scheme Name Owner / Developer Retail Gain sq ft Total retail space sq ft Opening Date Comments
Retail led, mixed use scheme situated in the city centre. It is proposed that Debenhams will anchor the scheme Proposed new development store and 50 new shops, alongside a new bus station, 10 screen cinema and a range of restaurants Proposal for a 500 million redevelopment of the scheme including two new department stores Developers Henry Boot are waiting for increased interest in the retail units before proceeding with this scheme

Lichfield

Friarsgate

S Harrison Developments

256,011

256,011

n/k

Nottingham

The Victoria Centre

Capital Shopping Centres

500,000

1,481,000

n/k

Nottingham

Broadmarsh Centre

Westfield

n/k

n/k

Phase 1 2012

Tamworth

Town Centre Redevelopm ent

Henry Boot

222,384

222,384

2015

Source: Egi 2011

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Burton upon Trent, Scheme Development

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The Proposed Scheme

Burton upon Trent's current Retail Footprint score is 988. Assuming the proposed development the new Retail Footprint score that has been predicted is 1,225.

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Proposed Development Including Tamworth

Variables Total comparison goodsFootprint Retail space (Goad) score Shopper population Current 501,000 988 134,911 Proposed 621,366 1,225 147,278 Uplift % 24% 24% 9.2% Market shares Primary Secondary Tertiary Quaternary Current 79.0% 46.4% 13.1% 1.5% Proposed 82.3% 48.8% 11.8% 1.4%

Comparison 322.2 351.7 9.2% TOTAL 11% 10.9% goods expenditure Assuming the proposed development in Tamworth, comparison goods expenditure is forecast to increase by 9% as a result of the Burton upon Trent development. This equates to an increase in comparison type goods available spend of 29.5m.

Source: GOAD 2011 & CACI 2010

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Leakage Post Development

Retail Centre Derby Burton upon Trent Nottingham Birmingham Tamworth Tamworth Ventura RP Derby Kingsway RP Lichfield Cannock Current Leakage 21.0% 11.0% 8.9% 6.8% 4.2% 3.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% Post Development Leakage 17.9% 11.0% 8.3% 6.8% 4.1% 3.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Source: CACI 2010

The above table shows those centres where 2.5% or more of Burton upon Trents catchment is leaked to. This is for the scenario not assuming the Tamworth development. The proposed development will help to reduce leakage mainly to Derby and Nottingham. Leakage to Tamworth falls marginally.
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Benchmark Locations

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Benchmarks For Gap Analysis

Benchmarks have been selected on a number of factors including Acorn correlation with Burton upon Trent Comparison goods expenditure Centre classification Drive time population Inclusion of a new department store The benchmarks selected for Burton upon Trent are Basingstoke, Blackpool, Doncaster, Hanley, Lincoln, Northampton, Sunderland and Telford. The following slide shows retail variables for each of the benchmarks in order to show how Burton upon Trent post development will compare. These benchmarks then feed into the Gap Analysis.

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Benchmark Comparisons
Retail Centre Burton upon Trent (post development) Basingstoke Blackpool Doncaster Hanley Lincoln Northampton Sunderland Telford Acorn Correlation Total Catchment Shopper Pop. 148,528 135,542 158,037 174,262 181,591 163,960 172,127 150,169 112,280 15 Minute Drive time Pop. Minor Centre Classification Comparison Goods Exp. (m) RF Score Comparison Goods Space sq ft Zone A Rents 2010* 90 (now) 125 90 100 80 135 100 130 100

n/a 0.66 0.64 0.87 0.88 0.74 0.90 0.60 0.89

114,714 130,193 168,521 194,198 267,100 149,117 235,025 230,871 150,054

Average Mall Dominated Town Average Average Average Average Average Regional Average Mall Dominated Town

354.8 363.7 362.6 437.4 427.5 370.2 399.9 344.8 277.9

1,225 1,018 958 1,141 912 942 1,042 988 717

621,366 582,700 728,910 981,160 923,380 803,880 893,920 610,710 438,800

*Highest rents for the town have been used

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Source: CACI 2010, GOAD 2011 & JLL

Benchmark Retail Space

Retail Centre Burton upon Trent (current) Burton upon Trent (post development) Basingstoke Blackpool Doncaster Hanley Lincoln Northampton Sunderland Telford Total retail space (sq ft)* 877,400 997,766 861,000 1,064,210 1,526,660 1,440,980 1,187,420 1,258,060 1,085,890 611,600 Comparison goods space (sq ft) 501,000 621,366 582,700 728,910 981,160 923,380 803,880 893,920 610,710 438,800 Convenience goods space (sq ft) 223,600 223,600 63,500 91,300 184,500 165,200 98,800 80,800 108,000 92,400 Vacant Retail (sq ft) 97,100 Not known 152,600 184,100 254,500 269,300 175,900 169,300 308,280 63,900

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*Total retail space includes comparison, convenience, other retail, retail services and vacant retail Source: GOAD 2011