NVTC Newsletter070427

NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter
Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Add B-9-12, Block B, Level 9, Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Newsletter for the week ending 27 April 2007
THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

Page
1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Implementing a stop loss order …… 2
by Nick Sudbury
Weekend Food For Thoughts …… 4

by YH Wong, BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd.
2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) …….. 6
Additional KLCI Analysis by Nazri Khan, CFTe, MSTA …….. 7
ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 9

Additional STI Analysis by Benny Lee …….. 10
iii) Thailand SET Index (SETI) …….. 11
Additional SETI Analysis by Don Schellenberg …….. 12
iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI) …….. 15
Additional HSI Analysis by Benny Lee …….. 16
3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 17
4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 18
Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 22
© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

1. Trading Article:
Implementing a Stop Loss Order
By Nick Sudbury
Stop loss orders offer “automatic” protection against large losses, but some traders still
prefer a more hands-on approach.
Most traders would accept that to make money consistently in the markets demands discipline. In
particular, this means being prepared to accept losses when they arise and cut them early. The
obvious way to do this is to use a stop loss, and, indeed, many experienced market participants
recommend doing just that. It is, however, important to appreciate the limitations of these
automated orders and why some traders prefer to protect their positions manually.
Placing a stop loss order through a broker or derivative provider serves to automatically limit the
loss on an open position. With a long exposure, for example, the instruction would take the form of a
stop loss sell set below the current price.
Should the market move unfavorably and reach the stop, the order would be triggered and the
position sold. The automatic nature of these orders helps people to remain disciplined and makes it
less critical to watch the market the whole time. The flipside, however, is that stops are vulnerable
to price spikes and noise.
Where to Set the Stop
Regardless of how a trader implements his or her stop policy, he or she still has to identify the key
price level. Technical stops based on what the price has to do on the chart for the rationale of the
trade to break down can be quite tight and, as such, can make an ideal first safety net for a trade.
If the particular pattern suggests a wider stop, this can be accommodated either by reducing the
trade size to stay consistent with the maximum tolerable loss or by using a separate financial or
monetary stop to do the same thing.
The question of where to set the stop is inevitably tied in with the trade size. A common mistake
among those new to trading is that they place large trades that force them to set tight stops and,
consequently, run the risk of getting stopped out. Stops are susceptible to the natural noise in the
market and, if they are set too tightly, will erode capital by way of the transactions costs.
The skill of where to place or manually implement a stop is fundamental to successful trading and
will depend on the trading philosophy and time frame, as well as the characteristics of the security in
question, most notably its volatility. A trader with a time frame of a day or so may be able to set a
tight stop of 3% on a defensive blue chip without running too much risk of being stopped out
prematurely while a more volatile large cap may need a wider 5%.
Trading the stock index futures where the spreads are thin and the markets less liable to sudden
rogue movements may enable a stop of 1% on the FTSE and maybe 2% on the more volatile DAX.
At the heart of this trade-off is the typical daily points move. If this were 100 points or 1% on the

Dow, for example, a trader with a daily-plus-time-frame setting a tight stop of 30 or 40 points would
find that the market would very likely repeatedly stop him or her out.
The Different Options
Those manually implementing a stop need to watch the markets closely and have a trading plan to
cover all eventualities. If the price moves quickly the wrong way to reach the stop level, the key is to
be disciplined enough to take the loss before it can escalate out of control.
A small adverse move that is not sufficient to reach the stop would not call for a trade unless the
rationale for the original position was no longer valid. If in doubt there is always the scope to realize,
say, half the exposure to reduce the remaining risk. When the market moves the right way, one
possibility is to move the stop to follow it. The advantage of rolling the stop like this is that it locks in
profits while still protecting the downside.
Normal stops and trailing stops are free but they are not “guaranteed”. In effect, a stop loss sell
turns into a market order as soon as the price hits that figure, and, in a fast market, that could be
well below the level of the stop.
Worse still is if the market gaps straight past the stop without ever actually trading at that price
because the order would not be triggered at all. The “stop sell orders with limit” available from some
brokers offer protection against this type of scenario. These reduce the risk of a price gapping past
the stop and failing to execute by establishing a larger selling zone between the stop and the lower
limit -- the minimum price the trader would be willing to accept.
It is, however, important to appreciate the differences between these orders. The stop loss is the
more likely of the two to get filled and will generally trade close to the specified stop unless the price
completely collapses. A stop loss with limits guards against getting a poor price but would only be
filled if an acceptable price were actually available.

Weekend Food for thoughts
By YH Wong. BH Global Advisers Sdn Bhd
Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of the Virginia Tech campus shooting. Back home,
the rising crime rate is now a big concern to many of us who don't have money to employ armed
bodyguards like some of our half-baked politicians.
Back to markets, it's always interesting to listen to people say how much they love stocks. Some
new investors who are heavily exposed to local equities and bonds got worried when they came
across a new report from a credible agency that warns of another potential currency crisis in Asia.
Well, the report should be banned for public consumption in Malaysia. How can that be logical to the
bulls? Asia's fundamentals are so strong and that lots of things have changed since 1997.
Economists expect the region to realistically de-couple itself from US consumption. Yes, with its
huge reserves in the pocket, I'm sure our central bank has its own plot should speculators strike
again.
A local technician claimed that this is the beginning of a massive bull run on the CI. Great! I'm
trying to become bullish to impress the local business editors but then someone reminded me that
sometimes, the road to heaven is always paved with bad intentions.
In terms of the bigger picture, US equities are approaching their all-time highs. The interesting
thing that we should observe is that US stocks are going up while the dollar is falling apart (plus
gold and crude oil prices have been rising). This cannot be too funny for some global investors
especially those playing US markets.
The pound traded above US$2.00 for the first time since it was forced out of the European
Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992. The dollar is also currently trading at a two-year low
against the Euro and other high yield currencies like the Kiwi and Aussie dollar. The DLR-Yen chart
looks interesting too.
Well, I hit the nail on the head regarding my earlier warnings about the latest dollar's influence on
global equities. The latest dollar's episode is all part of a massive plot engineered by the US
Treasury Department. So, it now makes sense to some why the Yen carry trades are back and that
the Chinese didn't even bother to attend the recent G7 meeting. US chief Hanson wants the carry
trade to continue for some time to come while he plans the next move with his friends on Wall
Street. The Europeans won't complain - for now. Talking about the Chinese, the domestic economy
is clearly overheating (too hot maybe) and the US is clearly aware of that.
As a global adviser, I'm always connecting the dots and what's next? There will be bouts of volatility.
The next mini hangover could be nasty indeed and most portfolios are vulnerable including yours
probably. Ultimately making money is about being rational.
Note: I'm currently working on a special research report with lots of colourful charts (for clients only)
which talks about the next Washington-engineered conspiracy that could bring down the China-led
Asian markets.
Have a great week ahead.

The first army of macro speculators armed with leveraged bullets and sophisticated weapons like
derivatives, has arrived in the SEA region to survey the real situations on the trading floors.
Please don't worry too much as they may be here to do some shopping at the malls or they may
buy more of Asia's fundamentally attractive stocks. They will never do anything bad to us. They are
all nice people (one) not like some of Malaysia's Mat Rempits or half-baked politicians who don't
know how to behave. Also, US investment banks are extremely bullish on Asian stocks and
economies. Have you read the latest research report produced by Merrill Lynch?
We know that much of the gains in regional equity markets are linked to highly leveraged bets,
financed with loans denominated in low yielding Japanese yen. Yen loans are also used to finance
purchases of real estate - now property prices are so expensive that serious home buyers will have
to work extra hours to save more money.
So, we will watch for new signals over the next few weeks.
Please note that there will be no publication of Weekly Thoughts over the next two weeks.
YH Wong is the Head of Strategy with BH Global Advisers Sdn. Bhd., a licensed
investment advisory firm. You may reach him or his team at (603) 2166 8896.

2. Market Commentaries
i) Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI)
Technical Analysis as of 27/04/2007
Basic Price information

Close: 1,324.77
Trend Analysis
MACD (23.1027)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is bearish. The momentum of the trend is Strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(1,319.1331), 30-day(1,273.2057), 60-day(1,243.6483), 100-day(1,190.5537).

SHORT-Term Trend: Very bullish
LONG-Term Trend: Very bullish
Support and Resistance Analysis

Immediate Support: 1,274.1500
Longer term Support: 1,090.3900
Immediate Resistance: 1,334.4399
Longer term Resistance: 1,334.4399
100 day SMA Support: 1,190.5537

Stochastic(75.0236) is currently slightly overbought and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bullish Candlestick pattern: No bullish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bearish Candlestick pattern: No bearish candlestick pattern detected in the last 3 days.
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bullish Price Reversal Pattern: No bar chart bullish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : No bar chart bearish price reversal detected for the last 3 days
Stochastic
Stochastic Bullish Price Reversal : No bullish reversal in the last 2 days.
Stochastic Bearish Price Reversal : No bearish reversal in the last 2 days.
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The ATR has declined therefore price action is less volatile
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are contracting therefore price action is less volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 114,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 86,167 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional KLCI Analysis by Nazri Khan
MALAYSIAN MARKET AT THE JUNCTION AFTER HITTING ALL TIME HIGH CEILING
By Nazri Khan, MSTA, CFTe, Certified Trainer / Consultant NextVIEW Investors Education
The KLCI has notched a weekly positive gain, closing 8 points below all time high. The crucial finance, property and
trading sector are consolidating, initially closing above its 20-day moving average on the past six sessions with
relative strength index (RSI) oscillator in a neutral territory.
The Second Board has technically gapped up to challenge its April high at 104, but has yet to break decisively
higher. The punters bellwether Mesdaq has also posted modest gains with relative strength index (RSI) touching a
neutral level since last week.
Clearly the whole picture suggested Malaysian market is at the junction with crucial development may occur soon
next week. To summarize, Malaysian market is at the tip of its consolidation, within a strong broad uptrend. The
market may resume the uptrend or it may be due a cooling off period after a strong three-week run. Still on a
longer-term basis, the path of least resistance remains higher.

The charts below highlight Latexx Partners Bhd (LATEXX), one of the Syariah compliant stocks well positioned
technically to move in the near term. Last Friday, LATEXX broke sharply higher on volume spike, notching 32-
month highs. The breakout comes from a well-defined twelve month bullish ascending triangle formation, and
follows a successful test of the 200-day moving average.
Over the past twelve months, LATEXX has staged three strong-volume rallies with higher bottom and rising volume.
Using chart pattern technical measurement, the height of the triangle as the upside target for the subsequent
upside breakout (RM0.79 - RM0.27 = RM0.54), LATEXX should see RM1.29 price level as its technical objective
(RM0.54 + RM0.75 triangle breakout point) in the distant future. From current levels, expect two key support levels
to cushion any downfall, roughly at RM0.75 and RM0.48 respectively. LATEXX closed at RM0.99 on Friday.
LATEXX made three higher bottoms

and a convincing bullish breakout from
its triangle pattern suggesting more
bull run in the near future
Monthly Latexx Partner Bhd chart (As at April 27, 2007)

ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI)

Close: 3,398.60
Trend Analysis
MACD (43.1545)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is bearish. The momentum of the trend is however,
weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(3,381.3000), 30-day(3,299.8848), 60-day(3,236.0469), 100-day(3,135.9290).




Stochastic(60.7266) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Volume Analysis
Volume: 133,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 159,367 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional STI Analysis by Benny Lee
After making new pivot highs for the fourth time this year, the STI faces the biggest challenge on
the resistance at around 3450 level so far. The STI uptrend momentum has weakened as the it is
not able to make new highs for the past 2 weeks. It normally forms new high about a 2 week period.
Trend indicators are still pointing bullishness and no reversals detected yet. However, the weakening
momentum may suggest another correction to take place, which my test the 3000 level again, as it
did in February.
The long term target of 3400 has already been achieved, and could this be the peak? Are we
expecting a major correction? This depends on the development in the market for the next 2 weeks.
If the STI is unable to make new highs within these 2 weeks, we may see a rejection of price on this
resistance level and price may set to correct. If the STI makes new highs, a new bullish projection
will develop.

iii) Thailand SET Index

Close: 695.11
Trend Analysis
MACD (3.1663)
MACD has just crossed above its trigger line today, indicating a bullish reversal in the short term trend.
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bullish. The momentum of the trend is
strong.
Moving Averages 10-day(690.2380), 30-day(682.6240), 60-day(681.5158), 100-day(681.4983).

LONG-Term Trend: Bullish

Immediate Support: 685.1600
Longer term Support: 665.0400
Immediate Resistance: 696.2400
Longer term Resistance: 701.8500
100 day SMA Support: 681.4983

200 day SMA Support: 692.6962
Stochastic(68.0040) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bar Chart Patterns

Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Longer Term volatility: The Bollinger Bands are expanding therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 127,910,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 159,580,768 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is increasing, indicating accumulation of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional STI Analysis by Don Schellenberg
ATC.TH Commentary
ATC is still doing very well in it’s climb to higher goals. The last time I commented on this stock was
March 23/07. At that time price had been moving sideways for over a month. I predicted more
sideways movement and then higher prices.
In fact this stock continued in the sideways correction for about two more weeks and then broke
upwards and exceeded the nearest resistance area around 47-50. Resistance at about 47.50
contained price for a couple of weeks and now the market is again climbing towards the next upside
target which is between 55 – 60.

TECHNICALS:
NextView RSI – this is in positive territory.
DiNapoli MACD – this configuration of MACD is new to Thailand, a creation of the world-renowned
trader Joe DiNapoli. This indicator shows a buy signal but with decreased momentum. This means
that one should be cautious taking on new positions with this stock until there is another correction
which may give a better price and safer entry in buying the stock.
MA’s – The two Moving Averages on this chart are not the regular kind that you commonly see on
charts. These are “Displaced Moving Averages”, which are very useful in showing the strength of the
mid-term and longer term trend. In the case of ATC price continues strongly above both of the
Moving Averages at this time.
PTTEP Commentary
PTTEP has been moving lower in a downsloping channel for more than six months.
It is significant that the price of this stock is now challenging the down trend line, at the upper side
of the channel. A break above this line and the immediate Resistance at 94 could mean that the
long down trend is over.
The short term patter in the chart is quite bullish. A break in price above 94, if that happens, should
attract the interest of more investors. So if the break occurs on higher than normal volume, this
stock may finally be ready to resume it’s uptrend.

Beyond 94 the next resistance is around 99-103. We’ll have to examine the strength and potential
of the move again if PTTEP reach this resistance area in the near future.
TECHNICALS:
For the indicators on this chart, I am featuring special indicators designed by Mr. Joe DiNapoli, a
well-known trading expert.
Moving Average – the moving average on this chart is the ‘displaced’ variety. It is currently
supporting the upward move.
DiNapoli MACD – and DiNapoli Preferred Stochastic – both of these are giving a buy signal, but of
course one would probably be wise to let the market prove it’s intentions by first breaking above the
immediate resistance at the trend line.

iv) Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI)

Close: 20,526.50
Trend Analysis
MACD (212.4325)
MACD is indicating that the current short term price trend is very bullish. The momentum of the trend is
however, weak.
Moving Averages 10-day(20,604.9473), 30-day(20,017.4023), 60-day(20,042.6758), 100-

day(19,869.9785).


Stochastic(63.1010) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.
Price Reversals
Candesticks
Bearish Candlestick pattern: Long Upper Shadow was detected yesterday
Bar Chart Patterns

Bar Chart Bearish Price Reversal Pattern : Island Reversal DOWN was detected yesterday
Stochastic
Volatility Analysis
Short term volatility: The 3-period ATR (241.3352) has increased therefore price action is more volatile
Volume Analysis
Volume: 1,115,648,000 shares, 30-day average volume: 1,364,613,376 shares.
Volume strength is moderate. The On Balance Volume is declining, indicating distribution of shares in the
market.
________________________________________________________
Additional HSI Analysis by Benny Lee
The HSI is unable to make new highs since late January this year. Like the Singapore STI, it faces
the heaviest resistance so far, since the bullish rally from Mid of 2006. The 21,000 level which seems
impossible to achieve 2 years ago is now the resistance level to beat should the Hong Kong stock
market wants to continue its bullish mode. Currently it is in a correction phase and at the
overbought level. Failure to make new highs in the next 3 to 4 weeks may result a pull back or
major correction in the HSI to test the 19,000 level again.
The Hong Kong stock market is expected to trade sideways with more uncertainty and traders and
investors remain very cautious. Should the HSI break above the 21000 level to create new high, a
new bullish price objective can be obtained.

3. Regional Market Forecast Group

4. Regional Traders Education Events this week
MALAYSIA

SINGAPORE

HONG KONG

________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER AND COPYRIGHT NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) and NextView Traders Club (NVTC) are NOT a licensed
investment advisors. This publication, which is generally available to members of NVTC, falls under Media Advice provisions. These
analysis notes are based on our experience of applying technical analysis to the market and are designed to be used as a tutorial showing
how technical analysis can be applied to a chart example based on recent trading data. This newsletter is a tool to assist you in your
personal judgment. It is not designed to replace your Licensed Financial Consultant, your Stockbroker. It has been prepared without
regard to any particular person's investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs because readers come from diverse
backgrounds, with diverse objectives and financial situations. This information is of a general nature only so you should seek advice from
your broker or other investment advisors as appropriate before taking any action. The decision to trade and the method of trading is for
the reader alone to decide. The author, contributors and publisher expressly disclaim all and any liability to any person, whether the
purchase of this publication or not, in respect of anything and of the consequences of any thing done or omitted to be done by any such
person in reliance, whether whole or partial, upon the whole or any part of the contents of this publication. Neither NextView Sdn Bhd
(including offices in other countries) nor its officers, employees and agents, will be liable for any loss or damage incurred by any person
directly or indirectly as a result of reliance on the information contained in this publication. The information contained in this newsletter is
copyright and for the sole use of NVTC Members. It cannot be circulated to other readers without the permission of the publisher. This is
not a newsletter of stock tips. Case study trades are notional and analyzed in real time on a weekly basis. NextView Sdn Bhd does not
receive any commission or benefit from the trading activities undertaken by readers, or any benefit or fee from any of the stocks reviewed
in the newsletter. NextView Sdn Bhd is an independent financial education organization and research is supported by NVTC annual
membership fees.
OFFICES;
Head Office Malaysia: B-9-12, Block B, Level 9 Megan Avenue II, 12 Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Singapore: 5 Shenton Way,
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10330, Thailand. Hong Kong: Room B, 16/F, Crawford Tower, 99 Jervois Street, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong. China: 59 Yunnan North Road , Liu He
Building Unit 20-03 Postal Code 200001, Shanghai , China.

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NextVIEW Traders Club Weekly Newsletter

Published by NextView Sdn. Bhd. (574271-D) Ph +6 03 27139388 Fax +6 03 27139366

Newsletter for the week ending 27 April 2007

THIS WEEK’S CONTENTS:

1. Investment/Trading Related Articles:

Weekend Food For Thoughts …… 4

ii) Singapore Straits Times Index (STI) …….. 9

3. Regional Market Forecast Group …….. 17

4. Regional Traders Education Events …….. 18

Disclaimer and Copyright …….. 22

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 1

Where to Set the Stop

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 2

The Different Options

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 3

Have a great week ahead.

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 4

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 5

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(1,319.1331), 30-day(1,273.2057), 60-day(1,243.6483), 100-day(1,190.5537).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 6

100 day SMA Support: 1,190.5537

Stochastic(75.0236) is currently slightly overbought and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional KLCI Analysis by Nazri Khan

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 7

LATEXX made three higher bottoms

Monthly Latexx Partner Bhd chart (As at April 27, 2007)

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 8

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(3,381.3000), 30-day(3,299.8848), 60-day(3,236.0469), 100-day(3,135.9290).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 9

100 day SMA Support: 3,135.9290

Stochastic(60.7266) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 10

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(690.2380), 30-day(682.6240), 60-day(681.5158), 100-day(681.4983).

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 11

100 day SMA Support: 681.4983

Stochastic(68.0040) is currently in neutral zone and is getting higher.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional STI Analysis by Don Schellenberg

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 12

NextView RSI – this is in positive territory.

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 13

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 14

Basic Price information

Moving Averages 10-day(20,604.9473), 30-day(20,017.4023), 60-day(20,042.6758), 100-

Support and Resistance Analysis

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 15

100 day SMA Support: 19,869.9785

Stochastic(63.1010) is currently in neutral zone and is getting lower.

Bar Chart Patterns

Additional HSI Analysis by Benny Lee

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 16

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 17

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 18

© 2006 - 2007 NextView Investors Education Group. All rights reserved. 20