LIFE ONLINE

The growth and impact of the internet

(and related technologies)

7.28.06
Lee Rainie
CTCNet Conference
Washington, D.C.
1 - Experts and information gatekeepers are challenged
2 - There is a libertarian backlash
3 - Cataloguing and searching information
becomes much easier
4 - Crackpot ideas gain circulation
5 - New institutions form
6 - Fights over intellectual property break out
7 - Cultures of identity multiply
 8 - New languages arise

!-( Black eye BRB: Be Right Back

!-) Proud of black eye JK: Just Kidding
#-) Partied all night LOL: Laughing Out Loud
#:-o Shocked LYLAS: Love You Like a Sister
%*} Inebriated NP: No Problem
%+{ Got beat up OMG: Oh My God
%-) Dazed or silly OTP : On the Phone
%-6 Brain-dead POS: Parent Over Shoulder
%-\ Hung over
ROFL: Rolling on Floor Laughing
%-| Worked all night
TTYL: Talk to You Later
%\ Hangover
YW: You're Welcome
>>:-<< Furious
9 - Boundaries between public and private break down
10 - New professions emerge
11 - Educational methods are changed
 Elizabeth Eisenstein: “The Printing Press
as an Agent of Change” in 15th Century Europe
Reality 1

Media and gadgets are

ubiquitous parts of
everyday life

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 14

 Home media ecology - 1975
Product Route to home Display Local storage

TV stations phone TV Cassette/ 8-track

broadcast TV radio
broadcast radio stereo Vinyl album

News mail

Advertising newspaper delivery phone

paper
Radio Stations non-electronic

Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 15

 Home media ecology – now
Product Route to home Display Local storage
cable VCR
TV stations phone/DSL TV
Info wireless radio DVD
“Daily me” broadcast TV PC Web-based storage
content iPod /MP3 server/ TiVo (PVR)
Cable Nets broadcast radio stereo PC
Web sites satellite monitor web storage
Local news mail headphones CD/CD-ROM
Content from express delivery pager
individuals iPod / storage portable gamer MP3 player / iPod
Peer-to-peer subcarriers / WIFI cell phone pagers - PDAs
Advertising newspaper delivery phone cable box
Radio stations PDA/Palm game console
game console paper
Satellite radio non-electronic storage sticks/disks
Adapted from Tom Wolzien, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 16

 Min u tes p er d ay

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Impact of the internet

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Ball State: Media use on average day

July 28, 2006

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17
Impact and implications

• People expect to be able to gather and share

information in multiple devices.
• They shrewdly sort out what communication and
what information “belongs” on what device and
under what circumstances.
– If they can’t be with the device they love, they
love the device they’re with
– “Email is for old people.”

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 18

Reality 2

Gadgets allow us to enjoy

media and carry on
communication anywhere

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 19

Mobile devices

• 73% of adults
own cell
phones
• 67% of teens
own them
CBS MarketWatch survey 6.13.06

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 20

 The communications Swiss Army knife
Percentage of cell
Don’t use it now,
owners who use this
but would like to
feature now on their
have it
mobile phones

Send and receive text messages 35% 13%

Take still pictures 28% 19%
Play games 22% 12%
Access the internet 14% 16%
Send / receive email 8% 24%
Perform internet searches for
things like movie listings, weather 7% 24%
and stock quotes
Trade instant messages 7% 11%
Play music 6% 19%
Record their own video clips 6% 17%
Get mobile maps 4% 47%
Watch video or TV programs 2% 14%
Mobile devices

• 55% of adults
own digital
cameras
• 43% of teens
own them

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 22

Mobile devices

• 43% of adults
own video
cameras
• 37% of teens
own them

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 23

Mobile devices

• 30% of adults
own laptops
• 32% of teens
own them

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 24

Mobile devices

• 20% of adults
own MP3
players
• 45% of teens
own them
CBSMarketwatch survey 6.13.06

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 25

Mobile devices

• 11% of adults
own a PDA or
Blackberry
• 7% of teens
own them

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 26

Impact and implications

• Conversations never end

• Being “present” with another person has a new
meaning
• Expectations about another’s “availability” change
• The spontaneity of social interaction grows
• Public space is “privatized” and other boundaries are
breached
• Work, home, school
• Consumer and producer
• Time shifting and place shifting of media
consumption grow
• “Smart mobs” proliferate (a notion introduced by
Howard Rheingold)
Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 27
Reality 3

The internet is at the center

of the revolution

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 28

 Internet and broadband adoption 1996-2006
80%

All internet - 147 mill.

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%
Broadband - 83 mill.
20%

10%

0%
Mar-95

Mar-96

Mar-97

Mar-98

Mar-99

Mar-00

Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06
Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 29
 Use email 89
Info about about movies, TV 84
Play online games 81
Get new s 76
Perc entage of internet us ers

Use IM 75
Hunt for schools 57
Seek political new s 55
Dow nload music 51
Buy products 43
Read blogs 38
Share their ow n creations 33
Dow nload videos 31
Download music – 51%
Health info 31
Share own creations – 33%
Job info 30
Religious/spiritual info 26
Create w eb pages 22
Look for info that’s hard to discuss 22
Remix and share files 19
Create a blog 19

0 20 40 60 80 100
For a full list of activities tracked by PIP please go to:
http://www.pewinternet.org/trends/Daily_Internet_Activities_7.19.06.htm

Activities of young are not as great as their elders Activities of young greatly outpace their elders
Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 30
Impact and implications: 1

• Different people use the internet in

different ways

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 31

 Different people use the internet in different
ways -- Gender

Men > Women Women = Men Woman > Men

• Be online on a typical
day • Use search engines • Appreciate email
• Use wireless • Check weather and instant
devices/connections messaging
• Get news/politics • Games
• Research/buy • Health information
• Search on hobbies
• Browse for fun products • Religious
• Online banking, • Store/display information
auctions, stock trades
photos • Seek online
• Job-related research
• Swap music files • Use online support
• Sports invitations • Research travel
• Create content • Probe genealogy
• Use dating sites
• Access adult content • Maps/directions

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 32

 Different people use the internet in different
ways – Race/ethnicity

Whites African-Americans Latinos

• Be online • Information for new • Access cultural
• Broadband jobs content
• Wireless / PDAs
• Information for new • Download/share
• Email
housing files
• Perform most kinds
of transactions • Browse for fun • Instant message
• Get news/politics • Religious • Get sports
• Do job-related information information
research
• Play games • Research travel
• Create content
• Seek hobby • Cell phones • Cell phones
information
• Listen to audio /
watch video

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 33

 Different people use the internet in different
ways – Generations

Young Gen X / Boomers Seniors

• Instant message • Transactions • Email
• Games
• Get news / politics • Weather
• Wireless
• Dating • Health • Use government
• Housing • Job-related web sites
• New jobs information • Get maps
• Create content • Information for new directions
• P2P services jobs • Research travel
• Play games • new housing
• Cultural information
• Religious
• Rate things
information
• Adult content
• Seek online support

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 34

 Impact and implications: 2
Nine digital gaps persist
Factors where there are strong correlations
• Age – internet use is highest among young, lowest among
older Americans
• Educational attainment – internet use is high among those
with college and graduate degrees and relatively low among
those with high school diplomas
• Disability status – internet use is lower among the disabled
• Language preference– internet use highest among English
speakers, and lower among those who prefer to speak a
language other than English

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 35

 Impact and implications: 2
Nine digital gaps persist

Factors where the correlations are weaker, but are still

significant
• Race and ethnicity – internet use is high among whites
and Asian-Americans and lower among African-Americans.
• Income – internet use is highest among those living in
households with $75,000 or more of income and low
among those living in households with under $30,000 of
income.
• Parental status – internet use is higher among those with
minor children living at home than in households with no
children under 18 living at home.

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 36

 Impact and implications: 2
Nine digital gaps persist

Factors where there are differences in the internet using

populations, but where statistical correlations are not
notable
• Employment status – internet use is highest among
students, lowest among the retired and widows
• Community type – internet use is higher among
suburban and urban residents, lower among rural
residents

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 37

Impact and implications: 3

• In our midst is the first generation to have grown

up with interactive media. They want to
manipulate, remix, and share content.
• They also expect to be able to be in conversation
with other creators. And their conversations
never end in the “always on” world.
• They hope they can get help from peers and
teachers whenever they need it
• But that is NOT everyone’s story

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 38

Reality 4

Multi-tasking is a way of life

– and people live in a
state of “continuous partial
attention”
--- Linda Stone

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 39

 Multitasking and attention deficits:
What else were you doing when you last…
Watched Listened Read a Used the Talked on
TV to radio newspaper internet the phone

Watched TV * 9% 38% 17% 54%

Listened to
13 * 21 16 30
radio
Read a
43 21 * 2 14
newspaper
Used the
20 17 2 * 19
internet
Talked on
57 25 14 18 *
the phone
Source: Forrester Research, 2004

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 40

 Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 41

 Kaiser Family Foundation, Generation M, March 2005

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 42

Impact and implications

• Younger users “process” work and play

differently from their elders
• The implications for productivity and
completion/mastery of tasks are unsettled
• The need for sanctuary and a place for
quiet and contemplation is being more
urgently articulated
– Josef Pieper: Leisure: The Basis of Culture

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 43

Reality 5

Ordinary citizens have a

chance to be their own
media creators

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 44

 Content creation

33% of online
teens share
their own
creations online,
such as artwork,
photos, stories,
or videos
(19% of adults)

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 45

 Content creation

32% have created or

worked on
webpages or
blogs for others,
including those for
groups they
belong to, friends
or school
assignments
(11% of adults)

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 46

 Content creation

22% report
keeping their
own personal
webpage
(12% of adults)

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 47

 Content creation

19% have created

their own online
journal or blog
(8% of adults)

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 48

 Content creation

19% say they

remix content
they find online
into their own
artistic creations
(9% of adults)

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 49

Impact and implications

• Media making is being democratized

• New voices in the online world – but don’t be
fooled by the power curve
– Blogosphere is not represented by the most
well trafficked blogs
• Ideas about intellectual property change
– Ideas about fair use and sharing change

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 50

Reality 6

The internet is becoming a

privileged information and
communications medium
and that changes
expectations and behavior

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 51

 Expectations of internet users – 2002

Expect to find online

Up-to-date news 85%
Basic government info 82%
Health / medical info 81%
Products and services info 79%
Locate a person 58%

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 52

 Internet use at major life moments
Total who % relevant Overall
used internet users growth >
internet who say int. 2002
played crucial /
important role
Bought a car 29 million 27% 21%
(62.5 mill.) 17 million
Got more education / 35 million 39% 50%
training for career 21 million
(53 mill.)
Chose a school for me / 27 million 45% 55%
my child 17 million
(39.5 mill.)
Helped another with a 33 million 24% 55%
serious illness 17 million
(66.5 mill.)
Made major investment 29 million 29% 77%
(56 mill.) 16 million
 Internet use at major life moments
Total who % relevant Overall
used internet users growth >
internet who say int. 2002
played crucial /
important role
Found a new place to 16 million 33% 25%
live 11 million
(32.5 mill.)
Changed jobs 14 million 25% 17%
(34 mill.) 8 million

Dealt myself with a 12 million 26% 16%

major illness 7 million
(26 mill.)
Got married 3 million 24% 63%
(7 mill.) 1.6 million
Impact and implications

• People’s relationship to information is changing

– Volume growing
– Velocity increasing
– Valence improving
• Importance of word of mouth, grassroots, viral
efforts is growing
• The online response comes in recommender
systems

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 55

Reality 7

The mass market is

fragmenting and heavy
internet users are different
consumers from lighter
users and non-users

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 56

 Fragmented media environment
(% of all Americans who “regularly” go to news source: PRC People/Press)

70

60

50 Local TV
Natl TV news
40 Cable news
Newspapers
30 Radio
Online News
20

10

0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
 Getting News on the Typical Day: Elite Broadband Users
Versus the Rest
(% of who say they get news from specific source ‘yesterday’)

“High-powered” All other home

home broadband broadband
Local TV 59% 54%
National TV 52 46
Radio 53 47
Local paper 43 35
Internet 71 24
National paper 21 14
Average no. of sources 3.0 2.2
Number of cases 395 619
Source: Pew Internet Project December 2005 survey.
Impact and implications

• Business models are under siege

• People can more easily “glocalize”
information
– “Daily Me” production
– “Daily Me” consumption
• The “paradox of choice” grows as does
the need to gather information to sort
through choice

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 59

Everything will change more because of the
J-curve laws

• Computing power doubles every 18 months –

Moore’s law
• Storage power doubles every 12 months – disk
law
• Communications power doubles every 2-3 years
with improvements in fiber optics and
compression – Gilder’s law
– Spectrum power is enhanced with efficiency
improvements in spectrum allocation and use

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 60

Eight trends to watch

• More people and more things will be networked,

giving rise to “the internet of things” and
“everyware”
• Emerging technologies will go mainstream:
VOIP, voice recognition, tablet computers, IPTV
• Mobility power grows and smart mobs
proliferate
• Content creation and content sharing power
expand

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 61

Eight trends to watch - continued

• Search power will expand and become more

social
• Data in objects and in specific places will be tied
together and contextualized – “spime” rises
• The internet will become more “tiered”
• RSS-ification of information will make it more of
a “push” world

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 62

10 immediate takeaways

• It’s a “smart mob” world

• It’s a Long Tail world
• It’s a world moving towards “networked
individualism”
• You’re your own news node – you can bypass
traditional media
• You are a community-building node

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 63

10 immediate takeaways - continued

• You are a learning node and teaching node

• You can watch conversations – learn what
influencers are doing
• You can participate in conversations
• You can recruit new allies and find new ways to
tell your story
• You can help reshape the business model of
new media

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 64

Thank you!

Lee Rainie
Director
Pew Internet & American Life Project
1615 L Street NW
Suite 700
Washington, DC 20036
Lrainie@pewinternet.org
202-419-4500

Impact of the internet July 28, 2006 65