G ARIN H ART Y ANG

RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: INTERESTED PARTIES

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GEOFF GARIN, GARIN-HART-YANG RESEARCH GROUP SEPTEMBER 20, 2011 RICK BERGS WEAKNESS IN THE NORTH DAKOTA SENATE RACE

Our recent polling among a representative cross section of 614 voters in North Dakota indicates the U.S. Senate race in that state is likely to be in play next year because of Rick Bergs significant weakness as the Republican standard bearer. In a generic trial heat, just 44% say they are inclined to elect Rick Berg, whereas 40% prefer electing a Democrat. Among the remaining 16% who are undecided, more than eight out of 10 are either Democrats or independents. Independents who express a preference say they would prefer a Democrat over Berg by 61% to 39%. Despite North Dakotas Republican leanings, the votes are clearly there for a Democratic candidate to defeat Rick Berg next year. I have been polling in North Dakota since 1985, and Congressman Bergs personal and performance ratings are the lowest by far I have ever measured for any federally elected official in the state, Republican or Democrat. In sharp contrast to the states two U.S. senators, both of whom get high marks from well over three-fifths of the electorate, only one in three voters gives Rick Berg a positive rating for his performance in office. Overall, a mere 33% say that Berg is doing an excellent or good job as congressman, whereas fully 55% say his performance has been only fair or poor. The fact

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that strongly negative ratings outnumber strongly positive ones by a margin of 24% to 5% is a key sign of extreme vulnerability for Berg. Congressman Berg shows similar weakness in his personal ratings from the voters. Just 31% feel positive toward Congressman Berg, whereas 34% feel negative toward him, with the remaining voters either neutral or undecided. Voters who feel very negative toward Berg outnumber those who feel very positive toward him by 20% to 7%. The voters lack of confidence in Congressman Berg is thoroughgoing. On eight key attributes and issues, significantly more North Dakotans express doubts about Berg than voice confidence in him.
Have Confidence % Reducing corporate tax loopholes and special interest tax subsidies Being politically independent and not just following a party line Putting the needs of average North Dakotans ahead of Washington special interests Looking out for the interests of the middle class and average working families Protecting Medicare for senior citizens Protecting Social Security Caring about people like you Being in step with your views on the issues 15 20 Have Doubts % 43 43 Feel Somewhere In Between % 30 29 Not Sure % 12 8

26 27 22 22 29 24

40 40 39 38 38 37

28 28 26 27 26 33

6 5 13 13 7 6

Why has Rick Berg become so unpopular and vulnerable in a state that has a tradition of giving its elected officials the benefit of the doubt? Some indications of the underlying reasons for his weakness emerge in the strong reactions voters have to information about his record in Congress. Large majorities say they have major doubts about Congressman Berg because of his votes in support of the Republican agenda on: cutting Medicare 2

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prescription drug benefits for seniors; protecting tax breaks for those at the very top, while supporting proposals that put the burden of budget cuts on seniors, veterans, family farmers, and students; turning Medicare into a private voucher program that would provide fewer benefits and cost senior citizens $6,000 more; and, protecting $40 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for the oil industry. The interviews for this survey were conducted from August 14 to 16, 2011. The results are based on a sample in which 40% of respondents identify themselves as Republicans and 28% identify themselves as Democrats.