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European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp.

214–225, 2006
Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
0263-2373 $32.00
doi:10.1016/j.emj.2006.03.011

Techniques to Support
Successful Strategic
Project Management in
the UK Upstream Oil
and Gas Sector
BORIS ASRILHANT, Petrobras S.A., Rio de Janeiro
MAUREEN MEADOWS, Warwick Business School
ROBERT DYSON, Warwick Business School

This article reports on the use of techniques in stra- gic projects also motivate the creation, acquisition
tegic project management from a survey of the UK and development of competencies (Foss, 1997),
oil and gas sector. The article then proposes portfo- comprise a collection of diverse options (Amram
lios of techniques to support successful strategic and Kulatilaka, 1999), and must be conducted in a
project management. The portfolios are developed changeable, uncertain and complex environment
out of previously reported research into the process (Kaplan and Norton, 1992; Partington, 2000).
of strategic project management which uncovered
a set of elements that explain successful project Here, strategic project management comprises two
management. main stages: evaluation and control. This is based
Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. on Amram and Kulatilaka’s (1999) taxonomy and
has a clear alignment with classifications proposed
Keywords: Strategic project management, Tech- by a number of authors in the project management
niques, Upstream oil and gas sector field (Ward and Chapman, 1995; Chapman, 1997;
Dawson, 2000; Murray-Webster and Thiry, 2000;
Turner, 2000). Evaluation involves framing (i.e.
drawing up a strategic project after its initial concep-
Introduction tion), planning and valuing a strategic project, and
ends with its authorisation (or not). Control com-
This article reports on a survey of managers in the prises the management, review and redesign of a
UK oil and gas sector of their use of techniques in strategic project through to its completion. A precur-
strategic project management. The article then builds sor stage involves generating possible projects.
on previously reported research to identify portfolios Although this is an important and interesting stage,
of techniques which appear to support successful this research focuses only on the evaluation and con-
strategic project management. trol of those projects adopted for implementation.

Strategic projects represent the core of corporate In this study, the set of elements involved in the stra-
growth, change and wealth creation. They are major tegic project management process are divided into
investments, often involving high uncertainty; they context elements, content elements and outputs (Petti-
comprise intangible benefits and promise attractive grew, 1997; Dyson and O’Brien, 1998). While the first
long-term financial outcomes (Buckley, 1998). Strate- two categories focus on the description of the strate-

214 European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

gic project management process and its interrelation- theoretically and the extent to which they are general
ships with context and content, the third focuses and comprehensive. First, a correspondence was
broadly on the achievement of results. sought between the proposed elements and theory.
The elements were researched in the literature to
A key concept in the strategic project management ensure their completeness and credibility. It emerged
process is the ‘critical factor’ or ‘critical element’. Crit- that the sets of evaluation and control elements
ical elements should receive constant and careful recommended by this investigation have a strong
attention from management, because they drive the correspondence with diverse, sound bodies of litera-
organisation to focus attention on the success of the ture (Asrilhant et al., 2004).
project in hand. According to the Pareto rule, which
separates ‘‘the important few from the trivial many’’ It was shown that the proposed elements form a ‘bal-
(Clarke, 1999), if attention is paid to sets of critical ele- anced’ set of process elements and outputs when
ments and their interactions, success is more likely. It compared with the four perspectives given by the
is conjectured therefore that there is a set of critical ele- Balanced Scorecard (financial, external environment,
ments that explain a strategic project’s success. This internal business, and learning and innovation) and
proposed set of critical elements is central to this re- in accordance with three different categories (context
search study and are referred to as ‘success elements’. elements, content elements and outputs). This cate-
gorisation of the elements highlights their compre-
The above discussion motivated the formulation of hensive and multidimensional nature. The rationale
the question ‘‘What are the success elements and the role underpinning the balanced set of elements is to se-
of techniques in facilitating successful strategic project cure success across a range of process elements and
management?’’ In order to answer this question an outputs, by extending the principles introduced by
investigation into the strategic project management the Balanced Scorecard (Kaplan and Norton, 1992)
process in the UK upstream oil and gas sector was to the project management process. The balanced sets
undertaken. of elements involved in strategic project evaluation
and control are presented in Appendix 2.
This paper is divided into eight sections. The next sec-
tion summarises the main findings of previously re- Having identified the set of process elements and
ported research undertaken in the upstream oil and outputs, the study then concerned itself with the fol-
gas sector, on success elements for strategic project lowing three questions. First, which elements appear
management, and management attention. Sections 3 to explain successful strategic project management
and 4 introduce the techniques and highlight their (success elements), in the sense that they require con-
use and importance in strategic project management stant and careful attention from management for
according to the respondents of a survey. Sections 5 a project to be successful? Second, which elements
and 6 develop portfolios of techniques to facilitate receive that attention in practice? An important
strategic project evaluation and control. Section 7 dis- follow-up question, then, is how close is the match
cusses some insights into successful strategic project between the two sets?
management. The last section draws out some conclu-
sions, and discusses future research directions. To address these questions, a survey was conducted
with a range of companies in the relevant sector
(Asrilhant et al., 2005). The survey results indicate that
a traditional engineering perspective on project man-
agement still seems to dominate in the UK upstream
Success Elements and Management
oil and gas sector. The sector appears to be attached to
Attention financially orientated decisions, focuses on financial
issues and seeks to control the efficiency of tangible
Initially semi-structured interviews were undertaken assets, resists changing current routines and overem-
with a diverse group of managers holding top and phasises shareholders’ interests, sometimes at the
medium positions in a single company in the up- expense of customers and employees. Additionally
stream oil and gas sector (Asrilhant et al., 2004). Each great attention is paid to environmental (green) and
interviewee suggested a number of relevant elements geological issues. Internal alignment, managerial
involved in the strategic project management pro- interaction and resource deployment also play a key
cess. An aggregate list of fifty elements (see Appen- role in strategic project management. However, inno-
dix 1) involved in the evaluation and control of vative routines, flexibility, interdependency, learning
strategic projects and their operational definitions and political, economic, social and market issues do
emerged from these interviews. not receive much attention from managers.

These elements, however, emerged from the business The most remarkable research finding of the study
world, and the characteristics of the upstream oil and was that managers pay considerable attention to a
gas sector exerted some influence on the selection number of elements that do not appear to explain suc-
of the elements. For that reason, it was necessary cess, such as financial and environmental elements,
to examine whether these elements are supported whilst paying little attention to a number of success

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 215
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

elements related to the internal business perspective comprehensive, it was essential to examine the extent
such as flexibility, interdependency, learning, organ- to which techniques address the set of elements. The
isational communication and adaptability, and em- set of techniques associated with strategic project
ployee satisfaction and development. Managers management was mapped onto the proposed ele-
seem to focus more on the symptoms than the under- ments, and the mapping indicated that techniques
lying causes. As a strategic planning manager ob- are insufficient per se to address all of the elements in-
served, ‘‘I used to work for a company where such a gap volved in the evaluation and control of strategic
existed, ultimately leading to the demise of the company’’. projects (Asrilhant et al., 2004). Nevertheless, a combi-
nation of traditional and recently developed tech-
Other interesting findings can be summarised as fol- niques seems to tackle most of the elements.
lows. First, financial success is also explained by
non-financial elements. Second, process elements ex- From the survey it appeared that managers do not use
plain a strategic project’s success rather than the out- recently developed techniques to tackle the most rele-
puts. The latter seems to be a controversial finding, as vant success elements, namely flexibility (e.g. real op-
a project’s success is most closely assessed via its clos- tions), learning, organisational communication and
ing (financial) results. However, the study reminds us organisational adaptability (e.g. balanced scorecard),
that the outputs record success rather than explain it. and employee development and innovative technolo-
gies (e.g. intellectual capital). There is, therefore, the
The research confirms that western managers over- potential for the managerial application of recently
emphasise the financial perspective and shows that developed techniques to drive a firm to long-term suc-
the internal business perspective is the main driver cess. These recently developed techniques could act
of successful strategic project management. Although as success facilitators in the evaluation phase and for-
environmental elements do not appear to be associ- mally address success in the control phase. These
ated with successful project management in this con- techniques might be usefully combined with tradi-
text, with overseas projects focussing on external tional techniques as a means of facilitating successful
environmental issues (e.g. social, political and eco- strategic project management.
nomic) might be crucial.
Based on these research findings, the remaining part
of this paper presents the level of importance and use
of techniques by survey respondents. It also pro-
Techniques for Strategic Project poses sets of techniques for successful strategic pro-
Management ject evaluation and control, which are validated
through assessment sheets completed by participants
Having examined the proposed elements to ensure in the main survey. Figure 1 provides an overview of
that they are theoretically supported, general and the research programme.

Balanced set of elements MAPPING Techniques for successful


(dimensions of the strategic strategic project management
project management process)

Perceived relevance Frequency of addressing


of elements (links with elements
Gap analysis
project success) (management attention)

Portfolios of techniques
for successful strategic
Success elements
project management

Figure 1 Overview of the Research Programme

216 European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Importance and Use of Techniques use some techniques that deal with some degree of
mathematical complexity, namely scheduling and
This section presents the level of importance and use financial performance monitoring. Scheduling is used
of techniques by the respondents of the survey. The for both planning and control. Financial performance
results show that techniques are flexible instruments, monitoring is used at a corporate level to measure
as the same techniques are often applied in both eval- business performance. However, a few companies
uating and controlling strategic projects. are now also using it as a benchmark for project con-
trol. Managers are highly familiar with, but rarely use
capital rationing. Capital rationing is often used at a
According to the survey, managers are invariably corporate level to measure investment efficiency
familiar with, and widely use, summary financial and ranking via cost management. Managers are also
measures such as net income, return on investment fully aware of, but rarely use optimisation. Optimisa-
(ROI), payback period, internal rate of return (IRR), tion is considered a complex, time consuming tech-
and net present values (NPV). Managers are also nique informally or intuitively used at a corporate
closely familiar with, and invariably use, sensitivity level. Managers are fairly aware of, and rarely apply
analysis, which is, according to a planning analyst, activity-based costing (ABC) and manpower ration-
‘‘a simple to do, simple to understand technique’’. ing. ABC is generally replaced by homemade pro-
Although managers are widely familiar with cost- cedures. Manpower rationing is indirectly used
benefit analysis, they only occasionally use it for through cost management (e.g. organisational charts)
specific projects (e.g. technological and environmental and is crucial for large scale projects. Managers are
projects) or in parts of a project. Managers are quite rarely aware of, and seldom apply, some complex
unfamiliar with, and rarely use, leveraged NPV techniques, namely utility functions and game the-
(which takes into account the impact of fiscal benefits ory. While the main barrier for using utility functions
obtained from financial engineering) and human re- is the assessment of one’s risk aversion level, the prin-
source accounting (HRA). Leveraged NPV is rarely ciples of game theory are just informally applied.
used because managers invariably invest in attractive Finally, managers are also rarely aware of, and sel-
investments without seeking external funding. How- dom apply, recently developed techniques such as
ever, managers in small firms are usually more aware real options, economic value added (EVA) and intel-
of leveraged NPV, as they search for external funding. lectual capital. Real options are considered extremely
complex and difficult to quantify. A few companies
Managers are highly aware of, and regularly use some use EVA for project post-completion assessment,
advanced techniques that account for uncertainty, and a few more are about to use it in the near future.
namely forecasting, risk analysis and risk-adjusted Finally, intellectual capital is often identified with
NPV. Forecasting is often used at a corporate level, knowledge management. It is important to mention
and is considered a primary technique. Risk analysis that managers indicate corporate hurdles specific to
is considered to be a project-specific technique (e.g. the upstream oil and gas sector, such as the develop-
exploration and environmental projects); however, it ment cost per barrel and the reserve-production ratio
is also influential, and is often used in the early stages (R/P).
of evaluation. Risk-adjusted NPV is considered to be a
project specific technique (e.g. exploration projects),
but it is also seen as fundamental. Managers are
highly familiar with, but only occasionally use, other Techniques to Support Successful
techniques that address uncertainty, namely scenario
analysis, decision-tree analysis and simulation. Sce- Strategic Project Evaluation
nario analysis is often used at a corporate level at spe-
cific moments in time, through a limited number of This section proposes a set of techniques as a means
scenarios, sometimes for ad hoc planning. It is consid- of facilitating and supporting the evaluation stage of
ered a controversial technique: some managers like it, strategic project evaluation in the UK upstream oil
some are reluctant to accept it, and others dislike it. and gas sector.
Managers are inclined to use sensitivity analysis in-
stead. Decision-tree analysis and simulation are both Table 1 is a starting point for the design of the eval-
considered project-specific (e.g. exploration and infra- uation portfolio of techniques. It compares the main
structure projects) techniques. Decision-tree analysis techniques applied in practice to those techniques
is considered to be a powerful technique that focuses that address in theory the evaluation success ele-
on key variables, and simpler than continuous proba- ments. The techniques used in practice are those
bilistic techniques, such as risk analysis. Simulation is used by the respondents to manage their last strate-
considered an intensive technique, which deals with gic projects, as indicated by the survey responses.
complex problems associated with multiple technical The techniques that address the evaluation success
variables, and cost-effective for large scale projects. elements in theory are those reviewed by the litera-
ture, and emerged from the conceptual work. Tech-
Managers often apply some techniques informally. niques both used in practice and suggested by the
They are highly familiar with, but only occasionally literature are shown in bold.

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 217
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Table 1 Techniques for Evaluation Success Elements

Evaluation Success Element Techniques Mainly Used in Practice Techniques that Address the Elements in the
Reviewed Literature

Feasibility/Viability Risk Analysis, Scenario Analysis Simulation, Risk Analysis


Timescale Scheduling, Payback Period, NPV Payback Period, IRR, NPV, Leveraged NPV,
Risk-Adjusted NPV, Sensitivity Analysis,
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Durability Sensitivity Analysis, NPV, Payback IRR, NPV, Leveraged NPV, Risk-Adjusted NPV,
Period, Simulation Sensitivity Analysis, Cost-Benefit Analysis,
Scenario Analysis, Contingency Analysis,
Decision-Tree Analysis, Risk Analysis,
Human Resource Accounting, Real Options
Flexibility Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis, Decision-Tree Analysis,
Real Options
Interdependency NPV, Decision-Tree Analysis, Optimisation, Real Options
Risk-Adjusted NPV, Simulation,
Risk Analysis, Scenario Analysis,
Optimisation
Corporate Alignment IRR, NPV Scenario Analysis, Contingency Analysis,
Balanced Scorecard
Competency Alignment Simulation, Scenario Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Contingency Analysis,
Risk Analysis, Optimisation, Balanced Scorecard
Activity-Based Costing
Financial Capability Net Income, Capital Rationing ROI, Net Income, Optimisation
Financial Leverage ROI, Net Income, IRR ROI, Net Income, Leveraged NPV

Table 2 Recommended Techniques and Evaluation Success Elements

Evaluation Success Element Recommended Techniques Phase(s) of Analysis

Feasibility/viability Risk Analysis Design


Timescale NPV, Scheduling, IRR, Sensitivity Analysis Planning, Valuation
Durability NPV, Sensitivity Analysis, IRR Valuation
Flexibility Scenario Analysis, Real Options Planning, Valuation
Interdependency Optimisation Valuation
Corporate Alignment Scenario Analysis, BSC Planning
Competency Alignment Scenario Analysis, BSC Planning
Financial Capability Net Income, ROI Valuation
Financial Leverage ROI, Net Income Valuation

Table 2 summarises the recommended techniques ommended if there is no theoretical barrier to their
that tackle each success element involved in the eval- use.
uation (design, planning and valuation) of strategic
projects. There are also some elements to which managers pay
considerable attention, but which do not appear to
The rationale for recommending the techniques is as explain successful strategic project management in
follows. When there is a superimposition of the tech- the context of the UK upstream oil and gas industry.
niques mainly used in practice on those suggested by In different contexts, however, these elements may
the reviewed literature, these techniques are com- explain success and techniques to support them have
monly recommended. However, techniques mainly been included. Finally, there are some elements to
used in practice and suggested by the reviewed liter- which managers pay little attention, and which do
ature, which have strong theoretical or practical not appear to explain successful strategic project
barriers to their use (e.g. payback period) are not rec- management, and there are some techniques that
ommended. When there is no superimposition, tech- tackle these elements. These techniques are referred
niques suggested by the literature are recommended to in footnotes, as they may be applied by specific
where the authors consider the case to be strong, for companies (i.e. small, medium or big), in specific pro-
example where practice is lagging theory but there is jects (e.g. overseas and large scale projects) or specific
a strong likelihood of take-up in the future e.g. the situations (e.g. competitive environment). The final
balanced scorecard. Techniques used in practice proposed set of techniques to support the evaluation
without a clear theoretical support may also be rec- stage is presented below (Table 3).

218 European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Table 3 Evaluation Portfolio of Techniques

Phase of Analysis Recommended Techniques

DESIGN Risk Analysis (i.e. NPV risk profile)


Real Options (for flexibility)

PLANNINGa BSC (For setting goals and measures)


Scenario Analysis / Forecasting (e.g. to tackle financial market or economic uncertainties)
Scheduling (e.g. Gantt Chart and GERT )
Real options (for flexibility)

VALUATIONb Accounting Measures (Net income and ROI)


Financial Measures (NPV and IRR)
Non-Financial Measures (Corporate hurdles: development cost per barrel and R/P)
Sensitivity Analysis (e.g. oil price, costs and reserves)
Risk Analysis (e.g. to tackle geological, environmental and technological uncertainties)
Real Options (i.e. the value of deferment added to NPV)
Optimisation (i.e. to measure the combined effect (e.g. NPV) of a portfolio of projects)
a
For specific projects (e.g. overseas projects) and depending on a firm’s size, scenario analysis and risk analysis might include
political issues (uncertainty and impact), social issues (uncertainty and impact), competition and market share.
b
Reservoir simulation might be used for large scale exploratory projects. Game theory might also be applied in the case of a
competitive environment. Risk analysis might also be used for tackling social uncertainty, in the case of overseas projects.

In the design phase, risk analysis is used at the pro- strategic project’s flexibility (deferment) to its NPV.
ject level. It is a useful technique for managers con- Finally, optimisation views a strategic project’s value
ceiving a strategic project, identifying its feasibility, (e.g. NPV) within a portfolio context.
and accounting for different sources of uncertainty;
it can help to integrate the team involved in evaluat-
ing a strategic project, and allow for the collection of
further information. Real options can be used to
Techniques to Support Successful
build flexibility into the design.
Strategic Project Control
Broadly, the planning phase seeks to align the corpo-
rate level with the project level. The balanced score- Having introduced the evaluation portfolio of tech-
card is used both at the corporate and project niques in the previous section, this section presents
levels. In the former, it is responsible for setting cor- the design of the control portfolio of techniques.
porate goals and measures. In the latter, it supports Table 4 is a starting point for the design of the control
the setting of a strategic project’s goals and measures portfolio of techniques. Again it compares the main
in accordance with the corporate level. Scenario anal- techniques applied in practice (from the survey) to
ysis, being a controversial technique, can be dropped those techniques that address in theory the control
from the evaluation set of techniques. In cases of success elements. Techniques both used in practice
unstable or competitive environments, however, sce- and suggested by the reviewed literature are shown
nario analysis appears to be a useful technique and in bold.
real options can introduce flexibility. Forecasting
and scenario analysis are used at the corporate level, Table 5 summarises the recommended techniques
and are seen as methods for handling financial that tackle each success element involved in the con-
market and economic uncertainties. Scheduling (e.g. trol (management, review and redesign) of strategic
Gantt Chart and GERT) is used at the project level projects.
for planning a strategic project’s budget, timescale
and resources. Some techniques which managers use, but not sup-
porting the success elements, complement those
In the valuation phase, techniques are basically used recommended above and will also be placed in the
at the project level. Accounting (net income and ROI), core of the control set of techniques, as they support
financial (NPV and IRR), and non-financial (develop- elements that may be important in other contexts.
ment cost per barrel and R/P) measures comprise a
portfolio of measures for valuing a strategic project. There are some techniques that tackle control
Sensitivity analysis is used to answer a range of elements to which managers pay little attention.
’what-if’ questions. Risk analysis upgrades the valua- These techniques are, however, referred to in foot-
tion of a strategic project by incorporating different notes, instead of being placed in the core of the con-
types of uncertainty, namely geological, environmen- trol portfolio of techniques. These techniques may be
tal and technological. Real options upgrade the valu- applied by specific companies (i.e. small, medium or
ation of a strategic project by adding the value of a big), to specific projects (e.g. large scale projects), or

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 219
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Table 4 Techniques for Control Success Elements

Control Success Element Techniques Mainly Used in Practice Techniques that Address the
Element in the Reviewed Literature

Managerial Interaction Scheduling, BSC BSC, Intellectual Capital


Resource Deployment Scheduling Scheduling, BSC, Intellectual Capital
a
Learning Scheduling, Financial Performance
Monitoring, Activity-Based Costing,
EVA, BSC, Intellectual Capital
Innovative Routines Risk Analysis, Contingency Analysis, BSC, Intellectual Capital
Real Options
Project Milestones Scanning Scheduling, Forecasting Scheduling
a b
Product Monitoring
Innovative Technologies ROI, NPV, Sensitivity Analysis, Intellectual Capital
Scenario Analysis
b
Political Scanning IRR, Risk-Adjusted NPV, Sensitivity Analysis,
Forecasting, Scenario Analysis, Contingency Analysis
b
Economic Scanning Simulation, NPV, ROI, Sensitivity Analysis,
Forecasting, Risk Analysis, Scenario Analysis
a b
Market Scanning
Organisational Communication Forecasting, Scheduling, IRR, Risk Analysis, BSC
Scenario Analysis
a
Organisational Adaptability BSC, Intellectual Capital
a
Employee Development Intellectual Capital
b
Employee Satisfaction Cost-Benefit Analysis, Forecasting, Scenario Analysis,
Financial Performance Monitoring
a
No technique suggested by the respondents.
b
No technique suggested by the reviewed literature.

Table 5 Recommended Techniques and Control Success Elements

Control Success Element Recommended Techniques Phase(s) of Analysis

Managerial Interaction BSC, Scheduling Management


Resource Deployment Scheduling Management
Learning Scheduling, Financial Performance Monitoring, EVA, BSC Management/Review
Innovative Routines BSC, Risk Analysis, Real Options Management/Redesign
Project Milestones Scanning Scheduling Management
Product Monitoring No recommendation Management
Innovative Technologies Intellectual Capital, Sensitivity Analysis Management/Review
Political Scanning IRR, Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Forecasting Management/Review
Economic Scanning Sensitivity Analysis, Scenario Analysis, Forecasting Management/Review
Market Scanning No recommendation Management/Review
Organisational Communication BSC Management
Organisational Adaptability BSC Management
Employee Development Intellectual Capital Management
Employee Satisfaction No recommendation Management

specific situations (e.g. competitive environment). financial market, political, economic, market and envi-
The final proposed set of techniques to support the ronmental issues, through to the completion of a stra-
control stage is presented as follows (Table 6). tegic project. Forecasting and scenario analysis feed
information into techniques involved in the review
The management phase is, to some extent, analogous phase. Scenario analysis, being a controversial tech-
to the planning phase in the evaluation set of tech- nique in this stage, can be dropped from the control
niques. Broadly, it seeks to sustain the alignment be- set of techniques. Capital rationing is also used at
tween the corporate level and the project level. The the corporate level, and is responsible for constraining
balanced scorecard is applied both at the corporate the execution of a strategic project, mainly due to
and project levels for calibrating, respectively, a annual divisional cash flow limits. Scheduling (e.g.
firm’s and a strategic project’s goals and measures. Gantt Chart and GERT) is used at the project level
Forecasting and scenario analysis continuously mon- for reviewing the budget, timescale and resources of
itor external environment uncertainties, namely a strategic project through to its completion.

220 European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Table 6 Control Portfolio of Techniques

Phase of Analysis Recommended Techniques

MANAGEMENTa BSC (For calibrating goals and measures)


Scenario Analysis / Forecasting (e.g. to tackle external environment scanning)
Capital Rationing (Cash flow limits)
Scheduling (e.g. Gantt Chart and GERT)

REVIEW Accounting Performance Monitoring (EVA)


Financial Performance Monitoring (NPV, IRR)
Non-Financial Performance Monitoring (Corporate hurdles)
Sensitivity Analysis (e.g. oil price, costs, reserves, environmental issues and technological issues)
Risk Analysis (e.g. to tackle environmental scanning and technological development)
Real Options (i.e. the value of expansion/contraction/abandonment added to NPV )

REDESIGN Risk Analysis (i.e. NPV risk profile)


Real Options (an option may be take-up at this stage)
a
Intellectual Capital might be used in cases of technological (or other knowledge-intensive) projects. The BSC might also focus on
technological and employee developments to replace Intellectual Capital. Manpower rationing might be used in cases of large scale
projects. The BSC might be used to tackle customer satisfaction and market position, in the case of a competitive environment.

The review phase is, to some extent, analogous to the becomes more relevant, and appropriate techniques
valuation phase in the evaluation set of techniques. must be applied.
Accounting (EVA), financial (NPV) and non-financial
(development cost per barrel and R/P) performance The number of techniques recommended is kept to a
monitoring comprise the review of a strategic pro- minimum in order to avoid managerial need for a
ject’s value through to its completion. Sensitivity practical understanding of too wide a range of tech-
analysis is used to answer a range of ’what-if’ ques- niques. The portfolios combine traditional and re-
tions. Risk analysis reviews the value of a strategic cently developed techniques in order to address
project through to its completion by scanning differ- most success elements. The portfolios include many
ent types of uncertainty, namely geological, environ- of the widely use techniques but also some such as
mental and technological. Real options review the optimisation and capital rationing which tend to be
value of a strategic project through to its completion applied informally. Some recently developed tech-
by adding the value of a strategic project’s flexibility niques (e.g. real options and EVA) are also recom-
(expansion, contraction or abandonment) to its NPV. mended, although managers are often unfamiliar
with them, as they are value creation techniques that
Finally, the redesign phase is, in fact, the design drive a firm to superior performance. Game theory
phase in the evaluation portfolio of techniques. In and manpower rationing, which managers are al-
this phase, a strategic project facing a structural most unaware of and virtually never apply, and sim-
change may need to be re-evaluated. Risk analysis ulation, which managers are highly aware of but
is used to redesign a strategic project to re-examine only occasionally use, are recommended for specific
its feasibility and re-assess its cash flows. Redesign projects (e.g. large scale projects) or situations (e.g.
can also involve the take-up of a real option. competitive environment), and are referred to in
footnotes. Intellectual capital is not included in the
core of the control set of techniques because it is an
extremely recent, untested technique.
Discussion: Successful Strategic Project A number of final comments on the proposed sets of
Management techniques should be made. The evaluation and con-
trol sets of techniques are general, comprehensive
This section presents additional comments on, and sets of techniques, which overlap considerably, as
justification for, the design of the portfolios of tech- they are seen as flexible instruments for facilitating
niques. The recommended sets of techniques focus strategic project management. They aim to embrace
attention essentially on the internal business perspec- different categories of strategic projects (e.g. marginal
tive, which often explains successful strategic project field development, field exploration, company acqui-
management, and on the financial perspective, to sition, etc.), sizes (i.e. small, medium and big) and
which managers often pay considerable attention in types (i.e. parent or affiliate, plc or limited, interna-
managing strategic projects. The external environ- tional or national) of companies, and levels of deci-
ment perspective, however, is considered peripheral, sion-making (i.e. corporate and project levels). These
as the UK upstream oil and gas sector is immersed in sets of techniques are in line with Chapman and
a stable political and economic environment. In the Howden (1997), who combined various techniques
case of managing overseas projects, this perspective as a process of managing projects.

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 221
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

The application of the proposed techniques is dy- reduce managerial scepticism. Some authors propose
namic, i.e. sequential, flexible and recursive. This is the adoption of a combination of options thinking,
because phases of the evaluation and control stages resource-based thinking and strategic thinking as
may be concurrent and overlapping. For example, part of a new paradigm for proactively managing
the control stage may involve redesign and further strategic projects. According to Leslie and Michaels
valuation in case of significant change including (1997) and Amram and Kulatilaka (1999), options
shock events. thinking supports a firm’s ability to scan both market
and product information in order to leverage an
Finally, it is important to emphasise that the portfolios option’s value, i.e., make an option value more than
of techniques are not sufficient for managing strategic the price paid to get or generate it. It also advocates
projects. Meetings, discussions, electronic network- that pre-emptive investments discourage potential
ing, peer reviews and audits, and particularly ‘the entrants by restricting their payoffs as a result of
human factor’ and organisational issues, namely impacting the market structure and by strengthening
managerial vision, judgement, experience and intui- the proprietary nature of options (Buckley, 1998).
tion, and skilled project team work, complement tech-
niques in attaining a firm’s long-term prosperity. The identification of success elements such as flexi-
bility, learning, innovative routines, organisational
Twenty-one respondents assessed the sets of tech- adaptability and employee development aligns with
niques. They confirmed that the proposed portfolios the resource-based thinking which claims that a firm
are comprehensive sets of instruments that can help must be adaptive and generative, and dynamically
systematise strategic project management, as well as develop inimitable resources and competencies
effectively facilitate successful strategic project man- supported by managerial involvement, commitment
agement. However, the successful application of the and leadership (Buckley, 1998; Foss, 1997; Grant,
portfolios of techniques will depend on many factors, 1998). Inimitable resources and competencies repre-
such as the simplicity and expediency of their use, sent a firm’s ‘crown jewels’ (Grant, 1998), and they
and on corporate culture and reward systems. are responsible for identifying, acquiring, sustaining
and renewing a firm’s competitive position in order
to allow a firm to win superior rents (Foss, 1997;
Grant, 1998).
Conclusions and Future Directions
According to Schoemaker (1992; 1995) and Bunn and
The current paper reviews the methodology and Salo (1993), strategic thinking identifies core compe-
main findings of a survey undertaken in the UK up- tencies to be developed or co-opted as a way of lead-
stream oil and gas sector, and proposes and validates ing to more innovative developments. These core
sets of techniques to support, respectively, successful competencies, which must be continuously aligned
strategic project evaluation and control. with a firm’s mission and goals, should be the
most robust and synergistic competencies, i.e. those
The proposed sets of techniques are general and that permeate diverse possible futures and multiple
comprehensive instruments, which combine a vari- strategic segments in order to enable a firm to create
ety of the most frequently used techniques with re- value.
cently developed techniques in order to tackle most
of the elements involved in successful strategic pro- Research directions might include the role of knowl-
ject management. These portfolios are applicable edge management in the management of strategic
for different categories of strategic projects, types projects, the role of techniques in conceiving strategic
and sizes of companies, and levels of decision-mak- projects and link successful strategic project manage-
ing. They are theoretically supported, aligned with ment to a firm’s success. Finally a research direction
managerial needs for application, build a bridge is motivated by the conflict between, on the one
among process elements and outputs involved in hand, the managerial disregard for the applicability
strategic project management, and act as success of recently developed techniques which promise a
facilitators in the evaluation stage and formally ad- project’s success and, on the other hand, the manage-
dress success in the control stage. rial claim to be managing their strategic projects suc-
cessfully without their use. An interesting research
The proposed sets include recently developed tech- project would involve a comparison of the perfor-
niques, which are often complex and not yet mature mance of firms which apply the recent and complex
instruments. These techniques cannot be simply im- techniques with those that do not.
posed, as, according to the assessment sheets, man-
agers resist adopting new procedures and need to
develop a practical understanding of these tech- Acknowledgement
niques. In the first instance recently developed tech-
niques might be introduced in a more qualitative The authors are grateful to the managers who co-
way – ‘a way of thinking’, as suggested by Schoemaker operated anonymously with the validation of the
(1995) and Amram and Kulatilaka (1999), in order to proposed sets of techniques.

222 European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Appendix 1. Evaluation and Control Elements


Evaluation Element Operational Definition
Feasibility Strategic project’s difficulty of realisation and implementation
Timescale Strategic project’s time to maturity
Durability Strategic project’s economic life, e.g. platform production life span
Flexibility Strategic project’s flexibility to adapt to changes in external circumstances
Time Time value of money
Financial Capability Firm’s financial situation
Financial Leverage Firm’s requirement to raise external funding, e.g. project finance, leasing
Financial Market Uncertainty Uncertainty related to financial market variables, e.g. oil price, exchange rate
Competition Firm’s rivalry to competitors
Economic Uncertainty Uncertainty related to economic environment, e.g. growth, inflation
Social Uncertainty Uncertainty related to social environment, e.g. cultural issues,
customer attitudes
Political Uncertainty Uncertainty related to political environment, e.g. taxation,
expropriation, government support
Environmental Uncertainty Uncertainty related to environmental legislation, pressure groups
Geological Uncertainty Uncertainty related to geological issues, e.g. oil(gas) reserve
Technological Uncertainty Uncertainty related to changes in technology
Corporate Alignment Strategic project’s adherence to corporate mission and goals
Competency Alignment Strategic project’s fit with corporate strengths
Interdependency Strategic project’s interaction with other projects and activities
Cash Flows Costs and benefits by time period
Financial Summary Measures Strategic project’s financial measures
Environmental Impact Strategic project’s impact on environment
Social Impact Strategic project’s impact on society
Political Impact Strategic project’s impact on key stakeholders, e.g. government
Market Share Firm’s market position due to the strategic project
Organisational Impact Strategic project’s impact on the organisation
Control Element Operational Definition
Financial Market Scanning Monitoring of financial market information, e.g. oil price, exchange rate
Budgetary Constraints Financial constraints affecting a strategic project’s execution
Market Scanning Monitoring of customer and competitor information,
e.g. brand image, competitor activity
Economic Scanning Monitoring of economic information, e.g. growth, inflation
Environmental Scanning Monitoring of environmental information, e.g. water emission, oil pollution
Political Scanning Monitoring of political information, e.g. taxation,
expropriation, government support
Corporate Alignment Scanning Monitoring of strategic project’s adherence to corporate mission and goals
Project Milestones Scanning Monitoring of progress against strategic project’s milestones
Product Monitoring Monitoring of product information, e.g. oil quality, appropriate gas supply
Managerial Interaction Ability to promote involvement, commitment and leadership
Resources Deployment Ability to apply current resources and competencies
Learning Ability to learn from past experience, e.g. interim and post-appraisal
Innovative Routines Ability to change organisational routines
Innovative Technologies Ability to introduce new technologies
Financial Targets Degree to which financial targets (e.g. costs, incomes,
financial summary results) are achieved
Timescale Targets Degree to which strategic project’s deadlines are met
Customer Satisfaction Level of customer contentment achieved
Environmental Targets Degree to which environmental targets are achieved
Market Position Level of market position achieved
Corporate Alignment Degree to which corporate mission and goals are supported
Employee Satisfaction Level of internal contentment and morale achieved
Organisational Communication Quality of internal communication around the strategic project
Employee Development Degree of development of employee skills
Technological Development Degree of development and diffusion of technology
Organisational Adaptability Degree of organisational adaptability to changes in external circumstances

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 223
SUCCESSFUL STRATEGIC PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Appendix 2. Framework for Evaluation and Control Elements

Financial External Environment Internal Business Learning and


Innovation
Context Time Competition Corporate Alignment
Financial Capability Economic Uncertainty Competency Alignment
Financial Leverage Social Uncertainty Interdependency
Financial Market Political Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Environmental Uncertainty
Geological Uncertainty
Technological Uncertainty
Content Feasibility
Timescale
Durability
Flexibility
Output Cash Flows Environmental Impact Organisational Impact
Financial Summary Social Impact
Measures
Political Impact
Market Share
Context Financial Market Market Scanning Corporate Alignment Scanning Learning
Scanning
Budgetary Economic Scanning Project Milestones Scanning Innovative
Constraints Routines
Environmental Scanning Product Monitoring Innovative
Technologies
Political Scanning Managerial Interaction
Resources Deployment
Content
Output Financial Targets Customer Satisfaction Corporate Alignment Employee
Development
Timescale Targets Environmental Targets Employee Satisfaction Tech.
Development
Market Position Organisational Communication Org. Adaptability
Obs.: In relation to the above framework, some premises are assumed, as follows: (1) the learning and innovation perspective is just
considered in the control phase because this stage is considerably longer than the evaluation phase, and therefore learning and
innovation are crucial at the control phase; and (2) a strategic project’s content is just considered in the evaluation stage because its
conception and framing are examined at that stage.

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BORIS ASRILHANT, ROBERT DYSON,


Petrobras S.A., Av. Warwick Business School,
Républica do Chile, 65 University of Warwick,
Sala 1702, Rio de Janeiro Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
20031-912, Brazil. E-mail:
asril@petrobras.com.br Robert Dyson is Professor
of Operational Research at
Boris Asrilhant is Senior Warwick Business School.
Consultant at Petrobras- A prolific author, he has
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. He served as Chair of the
is currently co-ordinating committee of Professors of
the Programme of Excel- Operational Research and
lence in Project Manage- as President of the Opera-
ment in Petrobras’ Exploration and Production tional Research Society.
Business Area.

MAUREEN MEAD-
OWS, Warwick Business
School, University of
Warwick, Coventry CV4
7AL, UK. E-mail: Maur-
een.Meadows@wbs.ac.uk

Maureen Meadows is Lec-


turer in the Operational
Research and System
group at Warwick Busi-
ness School. Her current
research interests include
business process engineering including models and
critical success factors for organizational change
programmes.

European Management Journal Vol. 24, Nos. 2–3, pp. 214–225, April–June 2006 225

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