Vietnam war: Not going to talk much about the history of the war, since it laid out so well

in the s Karnow book. I. What we will talk about today: A. B. C. D. II. A. Popular myths about the war, the larger context in which the war was fought, the fact that the United States won the larger war. Start be reviewing the outcome of the Korean war Winners and Losers 1. Popular view is the war ended in a stalemate, or draw. a) But, remember what United States goal was at outset: return to the status quo, it was the quick and easy success in driving the North Koreans up the peninsula that expanded out aims (briefly). Syngman Rhee, leader of South Korea. Without US intervention he toast. Lasts for years afterwards until his s death NK reputation among 3rd world Chiang Kai-shek stays in power in Taiwan without firing shot, and suffers no destruction. These are all local or friends to United States. (1) (2) (3) 3. Losers a) NK and South Korea civilians (1) (2) NK civilian have to live in communist totalitarian state South Korea civilians have to live in a capitalist totalitarian state Who cares about North Koreans reputation, they cannot project power, so poor that we really don have to worry about t them in the international context.

Korean War: Outcome

2.

Winners a)

b) c) d)

b)

China (red) (1) (2) (3) prevented from taking Taiwan kept out of UN for 20 years begins split with Soviet Union. (a) Mao angry that China has to bear the burden of spreading the message.

c)

Soviet Union (biggest loser of all) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Allowed US to convince much of the rest of the world that Stalin was on the march. Leads to rearmament of Germany and Japan Held responsible for outbreak of war by west Held accountable by east for not aiding its allies enough exacerbates Sino-Soviet tension which later enable US to engineer split there.

4.

In big picture, outcome of Korean war is stalemate in short run but sets up Vietnam war which will create the biggest strategic opportunity of the cold war.

III.

Vietnam: Popular View, Larger context, United States wins. A. Popular view of the war 1. It was a tie? a) When we leave in 1973, it is a tie. Much like in Korea, a divided country. South run by a corrupt dictatorship, marginally capitalist, North run by a brutal communist close regime. NVA overruns south in 1975. All for naught? Vietnam is unified, we lose 57,000 lives for nothing. least popular war going? What war was most popular? (1) Do survey of class, (a) % supporting wars going from Revolutionary war, war 1812, Civil war, WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, Gulf-war.

2.

we lost? a)

3.

It was unpopular and popularity dropped from outset. a)

(2)

Revolutionary war serious problems within the continental army and problem of Tory support for British. Civil War, Lincoln very concerned about waning support in North: leads to emancipation proclamation, not because he was so devoted to the slave cause, but he needed to shift the war aims in a way designed to increase popularity World War I, Wilson so concerned about support that we don become involved, then passes alien t and sedition act in which simply speaking against the war is a crime against the state. In WWII, Roosevelt popularity drops every year s of the war. By 1947, 70% thought the war was a good idea, 24% felt it was a mistake. December 1950: If Chinese continue to send large number in, what should we do? (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 28% withdraw 27% use A-bomb 25% escalate against China 4% strategic retreat 2% negotiate

(3)

(4)

(5) (6) b)

draw support for Korean war (1)

(2)

January 1951: Now that China has entered war, what do you prefer? (a) (b) (c) 66% pull our troops out as fast as possible 25% keep our troops their to fight 9% no opinion.

(3)

Do you think entering the Korean war was a good idea: (a) (b) (c) Peaks at 81% just before China enters, Drops to 27% in August 1953, when prisoners are exchanged Rises back to 67% by 1965 (close to the 70% that thought WWII was a good idea).

(d) c)

Takes over 10 years to reconstruct the view that war was a god idea.

draw support for Vietnam war (1) In both wars, support starts are much the same level and the every time United States casualties increase by a factor of 10, (10-100, 100-1000, etc.) support for war drops by about 15% points Support for war is pretty strong by 1966 (a) % in favor of bombing Hanoi: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) (3) Sept 1965-30%, Feb. 1966-42%, May 1966-50%, Bombing begins in June July 1966-85%. after we stop bombing, popularity will drop.

(2)

Myth that Tet destroyed popularity (a) (b) What was Tet? Favor bombing: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (c) Sept 1967:48 October 1967:53 December 1967:63 February 1968:70

Post-Tet, media goes wild, Johnson talks of suspension of bombing. (i) March 1968:51 April 1968:26 April (end of month) 1968:24 Johnson halts bombing (i) (ii)

(d)

d)

What accounts for the myth? (1) (2) Media and academics against war in huge way, mass publics largely back the president. General population see two wars as largely the same (which they were).

(3)

Intellectual left sees the two wars as fundamentally different (a) (b) (c) (d) China has internal problems Soviet Union relations thawing post-Cuban missile crisis. left says, things are getting better, why push now? realists say they are down, go for the jugular, don let them up. t

(4)

What was left doing during the Korean war? Where was the vocal opposition that crystallized views of Vietnam war? (a) McCarthyism kept them quiet in large part. To speak out against the war in Korea meant that one would become labeled a communist.

e)

Most unpopular war ever? (1) WWI, The Great War. (a) In 1937, was war a good idea? 28% say yes...lower than for the Vietnam war.

4.

it scarred a generation, the first TV war. a) polling data suggest otherwise. Korean war data look just like Vietnam war data, although Vietnam war is about 5-8 pt. less popular throughout.

5.

it lead to a long period of impotence and unwilling to confront communism elsewhere. a) In fact, we continue to confront communism during 1970 s and 1980 s.

B.

United States lost the limited war in Vietnam 1. Local war Limited aims in Vietnam a) Goals for the local war (1) (2) 2. a) Limited aims which change over time Limited means which change over time.

Limited means in Vietnam Two advisors, Two wars being fought in Vietnam (1) NVA fights a conventional war (Soviet Union advises) against United States

(2) C.

Viet Cong fight a guerrilla war (Mao advisor) against United States in SV

United States won the General war, in a big way. 1. Need to view Vietnam in larger context. a) Goals for the greater war (1) (2) (3) b) (1) Contain spread of communism in SE Asia Maintain United States reputation for standing up to Communism Split Soviet Union and China. Think: Friend of my friend is my enemy (a) If United States can get China to move to even neutral relations with United States, then Soviet Union will have to update its view of China. Nixon figures this out and creates the opening with China by beginning talks. Chinese and Soviet tension rising. Nixon agrees that US will vacate Vietnam, not push hard against Taiwan.

Strategic triad between US, Soviet Union, and China.

(b) (c) (d) (2)

IF it Soviet Union + China vs. United States, for s control of the world we lose. If it all against each s other, we win. Do graphics of possibilities. Soviet Union/China vs. United States, All three against each other, China/United States vs. Soviet Union, United States/Soviet Union vs. China (situation of the future?)

(3)

c)

Cold war is not just a backdrop, remember itsbeing fought in three arenas, strategic nukes, control of Europe, 3rd world. Vietnam is not about Vietnam or the people of Vietnam, it s about SE Asia in part, but it also about ideological war s between capitalism and communism. Vietnam war ends up exacerbating the split between Soviet Union and China that began with Korean war.

d)

e)

f)

Vietnam serves as a catalyst to allow and accelerate the strategic triangle to open talks and work things out with the Chinese. (1) We lose the limited war in Vietnam but win the general war over who will be able to claim China as a friend.

2.

How about Vietnam? a) b) They won the limited war but did they win in a bigger picture? No! (1) (2) (3) c) economics: crushed agriculture crushed Exposes conflict with China

Vietnam goes red, Cambodia and Laos as well. So Communists in Vietnam have won out? Failure for United States? No! U.S. ends up the big winner. (1) Locally: (a) (b) (c) (d) United States refuses to pay reparations (3 billion) Vietnam economy flounders, leads to s Vietnam boat people problem. Hardly the great outcome that Ho had envisioned. He wins the battle but loses the war: his economy is terribly backwards compared to other SE Asian economies.

(2)

A strong Vietnam backed by Soviet Union posed a serious threat to China power in region. s (a) (b) The problem in SE Asia had not been communism but nationalism. Rural revolution wins out in Cambodia, which then becomes involved in border war with Vietnam. Politics Pot extends his democratization movement into Vietnam, Vietnam responds by invading Kampuchea and takes Phnom Penh, the capital.

(c)

(d)

China and United States do not recognize new govt. in Kampuchea, we continue to recognize the Kmer Rouge.

(3)

China then invades Vietnam and fights to a standstill. (a) Vietnam and Soviet Union has signed a defense agreement and by 1978 we have managed to in effect substitute the Chinese for ourselves in the fight against Vietnam.

(4)

This creates the opportunity for Carter to play the China card and extend diplomatic recognition to Red China. (a) This infuriates the Soviets, and leads to collapse of Detente, but now Detente is no longer necessary and we have managed to swing to our side the Chinese and create a new world order. From 1978 on, it now just United States s vs. SU

(5)

In a way, this is the end of the larger cold war. (a)