Characteristics of Temperature and Rainfall at Madurai S K Dash CAS, IIT Delhi D h

First city workshop Madurai- September 9, 2011

Relation Between CO2 and Temperature

Climate Change and Animal Populations - The golden toad, last seen in Costa Ricas cloud forest in 1989, is believed to be extinct. The ecology of the cloud forest depends on the frequent formation of clouds and mist. Warming of the oceans and atmosphere has contributed to declines in mist g p formation. This has, in turn, affected species native to the area

Leafing Dates of Oak (1746present) - This graph shows g g how the leafing dates of oaks in southeastern England have changed over the past 256 years.

Extreme Weather Events in India Flash Floods & Landslides Cold Wave, Fog, Snow Storms and Avalanches Floods & Droughts Tropical Cyclones and Tidal Waves Heat Waves

Some Examples

Chiang Mai;2007 The Science and Practice of flood Disaster In Urbanising Monsoon

49.5 49 48.5 CLIMATE RECORD TEMP IN 2003

48.2 48 48 47.8 48 49

TEM MP(C)

48 47.5 47 46.5 46 45.5 HNK

46.7

47.2 47 46.7 46.7 46.7

HNK

HNK

MPT

ONG

GNV

STATION
Highest maximum temperature recorded at some stations during heat wave of Andhra Pradesh in May g p g y & June 2003 and the earlier recorded highest maximum temperature.
Dash et al., 2007, Climatic Change, 85

W inter

400

Pre-M onsoon

M on soon

Winter
100

Pre-Monsoon
1600

Monsoon

1400

200

n
1200 00 1000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1950 500

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Years Post-M onsoon

0 1950 2500

Years

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Post-Monsoon

Annual

Annual A l

2000

1500

0 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Number of long spell rain events. Continuous rainfall for 4 days over all India
Years Years

The number of long spell rainfall events shows decreasing trend in monsoon season in last 54 years. This suggests that planetary scale motions, may be southwest th t monsoon over the country is weakening.
Years

in different seasons.
The red line is linear trend line.
Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114

1000

W in ter

Winter
2250 2000

P r e-M on soo n

Pre-Monsoon

800

600

1750

A nnual
1500 400 10000

Annual

1250 200 9000

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Y ears
5000

1950 3000

1960

1970

Y ears

1980

1990

2000

M on soon

Monsoon
2500 2000

P ost M on soon

Post-Monsoon

n
8000 7000 4500 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Y ears
1500 4000

1000

3500 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

500 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Y ears

Y ears

Number of short spell rain events (Continuous rainfall for < 4 days) over all India in different seasons. The red line is linear trend line. Short spell rainfall events over India show increasing trend This is an trend. indication of increasing or intensifying of meso-scale conventions.
Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol. 114

Summary of trends in heavy and moderate rain events in different Indian regions for the summer monsoon season. Asterisks denote Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol.114 significant trend at 5% level.

Summary of trends in long, short, dry and prolonged dry spells of rainfall in different Indian regions for the monsoon season. Asterisks denote significant trend at 5% level.

Dash et al. 2009 J. Geophys. Res. Vol.114

Project Background
Numerous cities in South and Southeast Asia are hi hl vulnerable t climate change. highly l bl to li t h
In India, the expected increase in extreme rainfall events and changes to seasonal monsoon patterns will ill increase the risk of major floods and the likelihood of d f drought, with severe ht ith consequences for the health and livelihoods of millions of people. illi f l
13 September 2011 First City Workshop - Kochi 11

OBJECTIVES
The objectives of the project are (1) to identify generic climate change parameters in four selected cities in India and (2) to scientifically contribute in the local climate adaptation plans.

The four selected cities in India are Howrah, Kochi, Madurai and Visakhapatnam. For each of the above cities its local indicators for climate change adaptation are being developed.

ClimateZones(KoppenClassification) Montane HumidSubtropical TropicalWetandDry TropicalWet SemiArid Arid

AverageAnnualTemperatureRange Below20 Below 20oc 2022.5oc 22.525.0oc 25.027.5oc Above27.5oc

26.5oC

27.3oC

28.8oC 27.1oC

What climate information is available and what can b d d h be done? ?

Climate science has grown using historical observed data and model output. Past temperature and rainfall at several places are available from number of sources. Climate models also give the future y values into the next century. The above information can be utilized to know the future state of climate.

RAINFALL DATA DESCRIPTION

DATA SETS IMD GRIDDED APHRODITE APHRODITE CMAP
(CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation)

RESOLUTION 0.5X0.5 0 5X0 5 0.25X0.25 0.5X0.5

PERIODS 1971-2005 1971 2005 1951-2007 1951-2007

The f ll i Th following data d t have been collected by us from respective p scientific resources

2.5X2.5

1979-2005

CMAP
Asian Precipitation - Highlyp g y Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources

0.5X0.5 0.5X0.5 0.5X0.5

1979-2005 1982-2005 1979-2008

RegCM3 GPCP
(Global Precipitation Climatology Project)

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AT MADURAI

Madurai located at 9N and 78E is one of the oldest cities in the Indian peninsula. It has a dry and hot climate as per Kppens climate classification. The Northeast Monsoon rains dominate during the months of October to December at Madurai.
Madurai
40 35 30 Temp perature ( C) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Months
0

Temperature Climatology (1958-2000)

Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature

Annual maximum and minimum temperatures are 34 0C and 23 6C t t 34.0C d 23.6C respectively.

p Maximum temperature varies from 29.6C in December to 37.6C in May and corresponding minimum temperature varies from about 20.1C in January to 26.0C in May.

200 180 160 140 Rainfal(mm) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Madurai
Rainfall Climatology (1958-2000)

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Months

Annual rainfall in Madurai is 842mm. The maximum rainfall occurs in the month of October with a value of about 172mm followed by 146mm in November.

Comparison of OND Rainfall at MADURAI

RAINFALL (in cm) (

YEARS

Comparison of OND Rainfall Anomaly at MADURAI

RAINFALL ANO OMALY YEARS Comparison shows that the Aphrodite 0.5 rainfall over Madurai during October to December months are well comparable to those of IMD Gridded 0.5. The interannual variability is also nearly close to the IMD Gridded rainfall.

Comparison of OND Temperature at MADURAI

T TEMPERATU URE (in oC)

YEARS

MAXIMUM RAINFALL MONTHS

CITIES
HOWRAH KOCHI MADURAI VISHAKHAPATNAM

MONTHS
JULY & AUGUST JUNE & JULY OCTOBER & NOVEMBER AUGUST & SEPTMBER and OCTOBER & NOVEMBER

Monsoon Dependency Index (MDI)

CITIES Months M th IMD Gridded G idd d 0.5 IMD Stations St ti Aphrodite 0.5 05 Aphrodite 0.25 0 25 CMAP 0.5 05 GPCP 0.5 05

HOWRAH

SWMDI (July & Aug) in %(mm)

39 (710)

40 (672)

39 (584)

40 (640)

39 (640)

39 (715)

KOCHI

SWMDI (June & July in % (mm)

43 (1272)

44 (1417)

40 (1153)

43 (1180)

39 (740)

36 (720)

MADURAI

NEMDI (Oct & Nov) in %(mm)

34 (331)

38 (318)

41 (286)

40 (302)

31 (406)

32 (403)

SWMDI (Aug &Sept) in % (mm) VISHAKHAPATNAM NEMDI (Oct & Nov) in %(cm)

33 (342) 27 (287)

35 (329) 35 (328)

32 (294) 32 (303)

31 (289) 33 (308)

34 (497) 18 (264)

35 (495) 18 (244)

SWMDI : NEMDI :

South West Monsoon Dependency Index North East Monsoon Dependency Index

Following five models simulate the inter-annual summer monsoon and mean variability well (Kripalani et al. 2007)
IPCC ID Originating Group Key reference

CGCM3.1(t47) (cgcm) ( ) CNRM-CM3 (cnrm) MIROC3.2(hires) (miroch)

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Flato et al. Canada C d (2006) Meteo-France/Centre National Meteorologiques, Meteorologiques France de Recherches SalasMelia et al al. (2006)

Center for Climate System Research (The University of K-1 Model Tokyo) National Institute for Environmental Studies and Developer Frontier F ti Research R h Center C t for f Global Gl b l Change s (2004) Ch (JAMSTEC),Japan Center for Climate System Research (The University of K-1 Model Tokyo) National Institute for Environmental Studies and Developer Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), s (2004) Japan Hadley C t H dl Centre f for Cli t P di ti Climate Prediction and R d Research/ J h/ Jones et t Meteorological Office,UK al. (2004)

MIROC3.2(medres) (mirocm)

UKMO-HadCM3 UKMO H dCM3 (ukmoc)

Efforts are being made to download the climate scenarios simulated by the above five models so as to generate the future climate of the four cities under study.

Scatter plot of the mean seasonal (JJAS) rainfall in mm and the coefficient of variation (in %) for the 19 coupled models. Each dot represents the corresponding values for each model, identified by their acronyms. As recommended by the IPCC AR4 panel, the mean climate of each model is based on the last 20 years of the 20c3m experiments. Hence the simulated climatology is compared with the observed climatology based on the 1981-2000 period.

Taylor Diagram describing the JJAS TEMPERATURE over Madurai simulated by 9 Models compared with the Observation

HADCM3 ECHAM 5 CNRM_CM3 MIROC_MDRES NCEP_NCAR NCEP NCAR NCAR_CCSM

GFDL 2.1 CGCM HADGEM 1 MIROC_HIRES

Taylor Diagram describing the OND TEMPERATURE over Madurai simulated by 9 Models compared with the Observation

HADCM3

HADGEM1 ECHAM 5 NCAR_CCSM MIROC_MDRES

GFDL 2.1 CNRM_CM3

MIROC_HIRES
CGCM NCEP_NCAR NCEP NCAR

MIROC_MDRES SRES A1B scenario JJAS TEMPERATURE at MADURAI for 2031-2060

TEMPERAT TURE (in oC) MIROC_MDRES SRES B1 scenario JJAS TEMPERATURE at MADURAI for 2031-2060 TE EMPERATUR (in oC) RE

YEARS

MIROC_MDRES SRES A1B scenario OND Temperature at MADURAI for 2031-2060

TEMPERAT TURE (in oC) MIROC_MDRES SRES B1 scenario OND Temperature at MADURAI for 2031-2060 TE EMPERATUR (in oC) RE

YEARS

MIROC_MDRES SRES A1B scenario JJAS TEMPERATURE at MADURAI for 2071-2100

TEMPERAT TURE (in oC) MIROC_MDRES SRES B1 scenario JJAS TEMPERATURE at MADURAI for 2071-2100 TE EMPERATUR (in oC) RE

YEARS

MIROC_MDRES SRES A1B scenario OND Temperature at MADURAI for 2071-2100

TEMPERAT TURE (in oC) MIROC_MDRES SRES B1 scenario OND Temperature at MADURAI for 2071-2100 TE EMPERATUR (in oC) RE

YEARS

MIROC_MDRES SRES A1B scenario JJAS Precipitation at MADURAI for 2031-2040

RAINFALL (in cm) MIROC_MDRES SRES B1 scenario JJAS Precipitation at MADURAI for 2031-2040 RAINFALL (in cm) L

YEARS

Challenging Future!
Connecting climate change and societal p g g parameters:

Extreme rainfall events to the area and number of people to be affected by flood. Change in land use pattern to increase in temperature. Increase in temperature to enhanced use of power. Extreme temperature and rainfall events and air pollution to health issues such as heat stress, lungs, heart and water diseases.

ClimateChangeImpactsatCitylevel Climate Change Impacts at Citylevel

Prof.Dr.JrgenKropp M.Sc.JanaWerg M Sc Jana Werg
PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch NorthSouthResearchGroup N h S hR hG Potsdam,Germany www.pikpotsdam.de/nsp Email:nsp@pikpotsdam.de Email: nsp@pik potsdam de

Vulnerability to Climate Change Impacts Diversity of Vulnerability Definitions y y

Climate Change

Climate Change Community

Disaster Management Community

Development Community

Spatial scale

MAIN DIMENSIONS OF Climate Change VULNERABILITY 1. System: y Who or what is vulnerable? 2. Stressors: Vulnerable to what? 3. Effects: What is at risk? Global/regional local individual 4. Actions: What can be done, and by whom?
Disaster mitigation Robust Infrastructure Event o e ed view e oriented e SocioSocio-economic constraints Millennium Development Goals Current Livelihood conditions

LongLong-term climate Challenges & development & protection Exposed units and their Views capacities

Vulnerability assessments need to involve a cascade of analytical steps

For a management of future risks

you need to understand mechanisms y y points you need to identify intervention p you need to know where are the hot spots located

Climate Impact Science cannot provide planning tools. Climate Impact Science can outline potential options and their potential effectiveness.

Impactchainsareusefulfortheanalysis ofeffects:startingpointsforactionandtransformation

Source: Reckien et al. 2009/PIK

Impactchainsareusefulfortheanalysis ofeffects:startingpointsforactionandtransformation

Source: Reckien et al. 2009/PIK

Impacts on Transport Infrastructure in Hyderabad

Source: PIK/Reckien/Kit/Hofmann 2009

Extreme Rain Vulnerability

Infrastructure

Flowaccumulation

Digital terrain model

Hyderabad/India
Hyderabad (imaging, RS, Scenarios)

Extreme Rain Vulnerability R i V l bilit Flow accumulation models d l

Dortmund/Germany

Kit et al., 2010, subm.

Dortmund (RS, Cadstre, soil, land use)

Source: PIK/Holsten Kropp et al., 2010

Examples of Urban Climate Change Adaptation Options

Retrofit buildings Reduction in paved surfaces Increased Monitor historic buildings and sites Greenspace and bluespace d bl temperature G t t Rooftop gardens Enforce building codes Assisting vulnerable population groups Improvements of storm water I t f t t Rain R i water storage t k t t tanks systems Green space Restoring wetlands Grey water recycling Reduced Increased Reduction of impervious surfaces Water retention ponds rainfall rainfall Relocating vulnerable industrial facilities Equitable water availability and distribution Relocating families living at vulnerable sites Zoning and site planning Enforce building codes Relocating vulnerable municipal g p Strengthening sea-walls facilities Improvements to storm water Beach nourishing and re-vegetating systems Assisting vulnerable Sea level Buffer zones Zoning population groups R t i wetlands rise Relocating vulnerable industrial facilities R l ti l bl i d t i l f iliti Restoring tl d i Relocating families Relocating vulnerable municipal facilities
42
Source: Carmin & Zhang, 2009 Achieving Urban Climate Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia (Worldbank Paper)

Thanks for your attention!

S K Dash CAS, IIT Delhi skdash@cas.iitd.ernet.in http://www.iitd.ac.in/

9 September 2011

Second City Workshop - Madurai