Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
$40.02
Current
Last 10 Days
Last 30 Days
Last 60 Days
Last 120 Days
LTM
LTM High
LTM Low
20.00
$32.01
14.78
15.50
13.45
14.80
16.66
15.29
19.75
12.71
/ $23.66
/ 24.81
/ 21.53
/ 23.69
/ 26.67
/ 24.47
/ 31.61
/ 20.34
14.92
14.98
14.45
15.42
16.48
/ $23.88
/ 23.97
/ 23.12
/ 24.69
/ 26.38
-
Volume (000s)
20,000
Average
Volume (000's)
1,224
977
1,221
1,336
1,215
-
15,000
15.00
$24.01
10,000
10.00
$16.01
5,000
5.00
$8.00
0.00
Jan-06
0
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Feb 3, 2010:
Reported full year 2009
results in line with analyst
expectations.
Oct 6, 2010:
Announced expectations
that Q3 revenues would be
disappointing.
Volume (000s)
20,000
18.00
$28.81
15,000
16.00
$25.61
10,000
14.00
$22.41
5,000
12.00
Jan-10
0
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Source: Capital IQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Volume (MM)
50
47.6
40.5
40
34.0
30.2
30
27.0
26.1
25.1
20.3
20
14.5
17.7
12.9
10.4
10
6.9
6.4
0.0
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
12.50
$20.01
13.00
$20.81
13.50
$21.61
13.00
$20.81
13.50
$21.61
14.50
15.00
15.50
16.00
16.50
17.00
3.3
0.0
17.50
18.00
18.50
19.00
19.50
20.00
14.00
$22.41
18.00
$28.81
18.50
$29.61
19.00
$30.41
19.50
$31.21
20.00
$32.01
14.00
$22.41
14.50
$23.21
15.00
$24.01
15.50
$24.81
16.00
$25.61
16.50
$26.41
17.00
$27.21
17.50
$28.01
18.00
$28.81
18.50
$29.61
19.00
$30.41
19.50
$31.21
20.00
$32.01
20.50
$32.81
Volume (MM)
% of Total
% of Implied Float (1)
0.0
0%
0%
6.4
2%
3%
10.4
3%
5%
14.5
4%
7%
30.2
9%
14%
26.1
8%
12%
40.5
13%
18%
47.6
15%
22%
27.0
8%
12%
20.3
6%
9%
17.7
5%
8%
25.1
8%
11%
34.0
11%
15%
12.9
4%
6%
6.9
2%
3%
3.3
1%
2%
0.0
0%
0%
Cumulative Volume
% Volume At Or Below Range
Volume / Implied Float (1)
0.0
0%
0.0x
6.4
2%
0.0x
16.8
5%
0.1x
31.3
10%
0.1x
61.5
19%
0.3x
87.6
27%
0.4x
128.1
40%
0.6x
175.7
54%
0.8x
202.6
63%
0.9x
222.9
69%
1.0x
240.6
75%
1.1x
265.7
82%
1.2x
299.7
93%
1.4x
312.7
97%
1.4x
319.6
99%
1.5x
322.9
100%
1.5x
322.9
100%
1.5x
Days
% of Total Days
0
0%
2
1%
7
3%
11
4%
18
7%
22
8%
30
11%
35
13%
17
6%
16
6%
17
6%
24
9%
37
14%
18
7%
10
4%
4
1%
0
0%
Cumulative Days
% Days At Or Below Range
0
0%
2
1%
9
3%
20
7%
38
14%
60
22%
90
34%
125
47%
142
53%
158
59%
175
65%
199
74%
236
88%
254
95%
264
99%
268
100%
268
100%
Source: CapitalIQ. Share prices converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
(1) Assumes 220MM free float shares based on Capital IQ.
2006
Mean
Median
Max
Min
25th Perc
75th Perc
11.0x
10.0x
5.4x
5.4
6.8
3.5
5.0
6.1
8.2x
8.3
9.8
6.7
7.6
8.9
7.1x
7.4
9.0
4.5
6.6
8.0
6.7x
6.6
8.8
5.1
6.3
7.2
6.4x
6.5
7.8
4.9
5.9
7.0
Entire
Period
6.8x
6.8
9.8
3.5
5.9
7.6
9.0x
8.0x
75th Perc = 7.6x
7.0x
Mean = 6.8x
Current = 6.0x
25th Perc = 5.9x
6.0x
5.0x
4.0x
3.0x
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
2006
60.0x
Mean
Median
Max
Min
25th Perc
75th Perc
50.0x
35.4x
35.9
53.2
25.4
30.7
39.7
39.5x
39.6
47.0
29.9
37.5
42.5
27.3x
28.4
37.8
15.6
23.1
31.5
19.8x
19.6
23.0
16.6
18.7
21.0
19.7x
19.6
22.7
16.4
18.7
20.8
Entire
Period
28.2x
27.9
53.2
15.6
19.7
36.7
40.0x
75th Perc = 36.7x
30.0x
Mean = 28.2x
20.0x
10.0x
0.0x
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Institution
Current
(000s)
% of
Outst. (2)
22,171
12,371
12,281
12,116
9,736
8,548
7,383
6,556
5,675
4,788
4,259
3,750
2,612
2,561
2,548
1,531
1,303
1,274
1,270
1,246
1,205
1,136
1,041
909
886
9.2%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.3%
2.0%
1.8%
1.5%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0
726
1,825
88
0
(153)
4,210
(700)
(1,026)
(700)
2
139
(49)
(601)
500
4
985
(45)
559
(135)
327
495
(218)
767
268
(250)
(438)
(262)
1,890
0
5
1,757
5,366
(108)
(783)
229
848
(186)
841
1,866
43
318
(114)
38
(29)
(101)
(87)
1,259
33
62
Total
101,623
42.0%
129,151
53.3%
4,271
7,268
7,177
12,198
Summary
Top 10 Holders
Top 25 Holders
Sep-09
Jun-09
0
189
(705)
208
56
(370)
(22)
19
(1,622)
(4,586)
53
120
0
3
0
133
0
5
110
69
0
456
5,014
175
(512)
0
3,999
(12,502)
933
149
(46)
164
2
281
9,994
74
577
(656)
(117)
0
1
0
75
118
1,285
0
(736)
939
(346)
75
0
7,959
0
47
0
308
329
(111)
0
0
73
150
(8)
(64)
0
636
0
653
14
0
0
(557)
0
310
379
2,973
4,261
8,531
10,117
(80)
(65)
916
120
(17)
(315)
(100)
553
(780)
(348)
131
(389)
2,848
179
182
664
0
419
(84)
13
198
(69)
(1,958)
10
556
(100)
0
(745)
(150)
(12)
(282)
547
1,002
(1,714)
1,209
3,087
1,213
0
225
0
50
0
(570)
(197)
43
781
(421)
(3,995)
(115)
0
Company (FYE)
Autonomy (Dec.) (1)
Trading Performance
Prem / (Disc) to
Stock Price
LTM
LTM
1/24/11
High
Low
14.78 / $23.66
(25%)
$28.38
159.63
611.08
32.40
21.17
47.55
55.41
23.83
51.47
13.72
(10%)
0%
(4%)
(0%)
(23%)
(13%)
(1%)
(4%)
0%
(22%)
(4%)
(8%)
FD Capitalization
Equity
Ent.
Value
Value
Trading Multiples
Enterprise Value /
Revenue
EBITDA
P/E
CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E CY10E CY11E
LT EPS
Growth %
Cash
16%
$5,811
$5,728
6.6x
5.9x
13.4x
11.3x
21.7x
18.6x
1.1x
11%
44%
17%
$1,028
66%
87%
140%
33%
29%
60%
79%
60%
32%
60%
65%
$7,992
4,928
4,206
3,979
2,733
2,066
2,042
1,337
1,044
$7,251
4,502
4,001
4,312
2,648
1,743
1,886
1,268
859
3.8x
7.1
5.3
2.9
2.9
3.3
8.8
3.6
2.0
3.6x
4.4x
3.5x
6.1
4.8
2.7
2.6
3.1
7.0
3.0
1.8
3.1x
3.8x
15.2x
28.1
19.6
10.2
9.1
10.8
58.4
29.1
15.0
15.2x
21.7x
13.2x
22.9
16.8
9.5
8.7
9.6
38.7
18.8
12.5
13.2x
16.7x
25.7x
38.8
29.5
14.8
13.1
18.7
105.8
37.3
29.5
29.5x
34.8x
22.5x
32.8
24.2
13.7
11.4
16.6
58.5
26.7
26.3
24.2x
25.9x
1.8x
1.8
1.5
1.0
0.6
1.1
1.1
1.1
2.3
1.1x
1.4x
9%
16%
11%
5%
10%
7%
25%
20%
10%
10%
13%
22%
27%
26%
25%
28%
32%
17%
18%
12%
25%
23%
13%
18%
16%
14%
18%
15%
52%
24%
12%
16%
20%
$741
426
245
148
385
322
156
69
184
109%
33%
57%
39%
56%
56%
59%
$39,024
17,923
12,943
9,068
8,414
$37,845
16,977
11,359
7,940
7,317
13.2x
4.5
6.1
4.0
8.5
6.1x
7.3x
11.1x
4.1
5.5
3.8
7.4
5.5x
6.4x
40.4x
11.8
19.7
9.8
30.4
19.7x
22.4x
33.5x
9.7
17.2
8.3
24.7
17.2x
18.7x
59.1x
17.8
32.1
16.7
55.5
32.1x
36.2x
48.9x
14.8
28.5
15.5
47.1
28.5x
31.0x
2.2x
1.2
2.4
1.1
2.5
2.2x
1.9x
19%
10%
11%
6%
16%
11%
12%
29%
37%
27%
36%
25%
29%
31%
23%
12%
12%
15%
19%
15%
16%
$1,629
2,468
1,591
1,495
1,097
106%
34%
86%
49%
67%
68%
$18,752
2,803
2,514
1,236
$17,495
2,454
2,180
972
10.6x
8.1
10.8
4.1
9.3x
8.4x
8.6x
6.7
8.6
3.3
7.6x
6.8x
58.2x
28.3
255.9
19.8
43.3x
90.6x
45.7x
22.5
159.9
16.1
34.1x
61.0x
108.1x
87.9x
66.5
54.2
483.3
263.6
39.3
31.6
87.3x
71.0x
174.3x 109.3x
3.0x
2.2
9.6
1.3
2.6x
4.0x
23%
21%
26%
24%
23%
23%
15%
24%
3%
14%
14%
14%
29%
25%
28%
24%
26%
26%
$1,281
637
334
264
$250,678 $217,170
205,572 200,847
203,307 189,656
168,601 162,079
121,405
97,902
109,235 120,937
65,961
67,625
56,399
49,210
35,887
32,085
27,032
19,163
3.3x
2.0
8.8
5.1
2.3
0.9
4.0
2.9
1.3
0.3
2.6x
3.1x
3.1x
1.9
7.4
4.4
2.1
0.9
3.6
2.6
1.3
0.3
2.4x
2.8x
7.7x
8.5
14.6
11.5
7.4
6.3
12.3
11.2
9.3
4.1
8.9x
9.3x
7.3x
7.7
12.2
9.2
7.1
5.9
10.6
10.9
8.4
3.9
8.0x
8.3x
0.9x
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.3
1.2
1.0x
1.0x
7%
5%
18%
14%
9%
5%
11%
12%
1%
5%
8%
9%
40%
20%
49%
44%
27%
12%
31%
22%
14%
6%
24%
26%
12%
12%
18%
13%
12%
12%
16%
16%
12%
8%
12%
13%
$44,173
11,651
13,651
23,995
38,781
10,934
4,730
7,891
4,204
13,863
23%
31%
40%
51%
11%
25%
29%
43%
41%
18%
30%
31%
Source: CapitalIQ; based on consensus estimates. Cash balances pro forma for acquisitions.
(1) USD Stock Price of $23.66. Autonomy figures converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
Operating Statistics
P/E/G
'10-11E
CY11E
CY11E Rev Growth Op Margin
11.9x
13.9
20.6
17.3
13.1
9.9
18.5
19.0
18.8
9.7
15.6x
15.3x
11.1x
12.2
17.5
15.2
12.2
8.9
15.5
16.4
16.0
9.2
13.7x
13.4x
AU @ Mkt
14.78
$23.66
23.00
$36.81
24.00
$38.42
0%
0%
(25%)
16%
(10%)
56%
59%
16%
81%
40%
62%
67%
22%
89%
46%
69%
74%
27%
97%
52%
76%
82%
32%
105%
58%
83%
90%
37%
112%
64%
$5,811
945
1,028
$5,728
$9,989
145
1,028
$9,107
$10,428
145
1,028
$9,545
$10,867
145
1,028
$9,984
$11,305
145
1,028
$10,422
Statistic (3)
$866
963
6.6x
5.9
10.5x
9.5
11.0x
9.9
11.5x
10.4
EBITDA Multiples
CY10E
CY11E
$426
505
13.4x
11.3
21.4x
18.0
22.4x
18.9
Earnings Multiples
CY10E
CY11E
$1.09
1.27
21.7x
18.6
33.8x
29.0
35.2x
30.2
Implied Premiums
Premium to Current Price
Premium to Enterprise Value
Premium to LTM High Share Price
Premium to LTM Low Share Price
Premium to LTM Average Share Price
Statistic
14.78
3,579
19.75
12.71
16.48
/
/
/
/
/
$23.66
$5,728
$31.61
$20.34
$26.38
29.00
$46.42
30.00
$48.02
89%
97%
42%
120%
70%
96%
105%
47%
128%
76%
103%
113%
52%
136%
82%
$11,744
145
1,028
$10,861
$12,182
145
1,028
$11,300
$12,621
145
1,028
$11,738
$13,060
145
1,028
$12,177
12.0x
10.8
12.5x
11.3
13.0x
11.7
13.6x
12.2
14.1x
12.6
23.4x
19.8
24.5x
20.6
25.5x
21.5
26.5x
22.4
27.6x
23.2
28.6x
24.1
36.7x
31.5
38.2x
32.8
39.6x
34.0
41.1x
35.3
42.6x
36.6
44.1x
37.8
Note: Current market prices as of January 24, 2011, converted from GBP to USD at a constant spot exchange rate of 1.60.
(1) Shares outstanding based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010 and options outstanding based on Autonomy Annual Report for the period ended December 31, 2009.
(2) Net Debt based on Autonomy Form 6-K for the period ended September 30, 2010. Includes 500 ($800) convertible debt with strike price of 20.63 ($33.03).
(3) Projections based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch research as of October 19, 2010.