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Joint Probability:
For two events A & B that intersects in the sample space,
the probability p(A∩B) is called the Joint Probability.
• Conditional Probability:
• Event B given such that P(B)≠0; Form the ratio P(A∩B) / P(B)
for any event A; This ratio called Conditional Probability of A
assuming B (given B) is denoted by P(A|B);
P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = ; no meaning if P(B)=0
Motivation: P(B)
In a manufacturing process, 15% of the parts contain
special labels and 30% of them are functionally defective. Only
10% of parts without such labels are defective. The probability
of a functionally defective part depends on our knowledge of the
presence or absence of a label. If a part has a label, the probability
of it being functionally defective is 0.30.
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Conditional ..(cont’d) 3
Example 16:
Find the probability of drawing two aces in succession from a deck
of 52 cards.
A1 –Event that the first card is an Ace.
A2 –Event that the second card is an Ace.
Find P(A1, A2);
P(A1∩ A2)= P(A2 | A1) P(A1),
P(A1) =4 / 52; P(A1 | A2) = 3 / 51; (51 cards left & 3 A’s),
P(A1 A2) = 1/221
Now consider drawing three cards from a 52 deck;
Ai –Event that the ith card is an ace; i=1,2,3
Case 1: With replacement
Intuitively we know that A1’s are independent, so
3
4
p ( A1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3) = = 4.55 × 10 − 4
52
Case 2: Without replacement, keep each card after drawn. We
expect Ai’s are not independent.
p ( A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3) = p ( A1) p ( A2 ∩ A3 | A1)
= p ( A1) p ( A2 | A1) p ( A3 | A1 I A2)
4 3 2
= • • = 1.81 × 10-4
52 51 50
Thus we have approximately 4.55/1.81=2.5 times better chance of
drawing three aces when cards replaced than when put aside.This is
an intuitively satisfying result because replacing the aces drawn
raises chances for an ace on the succeeding draw.
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Conditional …(cont’d) 7
Interpretation 2:
We may understand this definition in a special case in which a random
experiment are equally likely if there are n total outcomes, then
No. of outcomes in B n B
P(B) = =
n n
No. of outcomes in A I B n AIB
P(A I B) = =
n n
P(A I B) n AIB
=
P(B) nB
Consequently,
900
p ( A | B1 , B 2 ) =
997
and what is the probability of the first two transistor are defective
and the third is not defective, P(ddn)=?. We have
100 99 900
p ( ddn ) = • • = 0 .11 × 10 − 5
1000 999 998
Note: One may use the definition of Conditional Probability to
provide a general expression for the probability of the intersection
of the two events.
P(Α∩Β)=P(AB)=P(A|B)P(B)=P(B|A)P(A)
Note: May have the following multiplication rule:
P{ABC}=P(C|A,B)P{B|A}P(A)
P{A1 A2…An)=P(An|An-1….A1}….P{A2|A1}P(A1)
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Conditional ..(cont’d) 14
B2 B1
S A = (A ∩ B) ∪ (A ∩ B)
AIB A B
Disjoint
A∩B
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Conditional…(cont’d) 17
From axiom 3:
P(A) = P(A I B) + P(A I B) = P(A | B)P(B) + P(A | B)P(B)
Now as a probability need to check the fundamental
property of conditional probability, P(A|B). For a fixed B as A
ranges over all the events of S. We need to show that these numbers
are indeed, probabilities; that is, they satisfy the three postulates.
1.P(A|B)≥0
2. P(S|B)=1
3. If A∩C=Φ, then P(A∪C|B)=P(A|B)+P(C|B).
Knowing that A∩B is an event and S∩B=B, the first two axioms
are easily verified.
To prove the third one, we know that if A & C are disjoint, their
subsets A∩B and C∩B are also disjoint. And since
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Conditional ..(cont’d) 18
Statistical Independence
Suppose a box contains 10 parts; 3 of them are not good and
suppose two parts taken at random from the box with replacement,
it means that the first part is replaced before the second one is
selected. What is the Probability that the second part is defective
given that the first one is defective?
Denote: A-the second part is defective B-the first part is defective
P(A|B)=?
Because the first part is replaced prior to selecting the second one,
this makes the box contains still 10 parts of which 3 are defective.
Therefore, the probability of A does not depend on whether
A1 Am [A1,….,Am] -
B
A2 called exhaustive
Obviously,
m
B = B ∩ S , S = U Ai,
i =1
m
m m
B B U Ai , = U B ∩ Ai = U E i
= ∩ Ei’s are disjoint
i =1 i =1 12 3 i =1
Ei
m
p ( B ) = ∑ p( Ei ),
i =1
p( E i ) = p( B ∩ Ai ) = p( B | Ai ) p( Ai ).
Known:
p(A i ∩ B) p (B ∩ A i )
p (A i | B ) = ; p (B | A i ) =
p(B) p( A i )
p(B | A i )p(Ai )
p (A i | B ) =
p(B)
p(B | A i )P(A i )
= m
∑ p ( B | A i ) P (A i )
i =1
P ( B ) = P ( B I A) + P ( B I A)
= P(B | A)P(A) + P(B | A ) P ( A )
P ( B | A) P ( A) P ( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B) = , P( A | B) =
P(B) P(B)
Note: Interpretation
P(Ai|B) – Probability of cause Ai knowing that effect B
occurred. So Bayes’ rule gives a way to find the posterior
probability by combining the prior probability with the
evidence observed from the current experiment in which the
event B has occurred. It means that given an “effect”, event B,
it determines the probability of a particular “cause”, event Ai,
among all its possible “causes”, event Ai’s ,i=1,2,…,m.
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Statistical Independence 26
Statistical Independence:
The three events, A1,A2 & A3 are mutually independent iff
p(A j Ak) = p(A j)p(Ak), j ≠ k, j, k = 1,2,3, and
p(A1 A2 A3) = p(A1)p(A2)p(A3)
Independence of n Events: The events, Ai;i=1,2,3,…….,n
are independent iff
p(A j ∩ A k ) = p(A j )p(A k ), j ≠ k, j, k = 1,2,3,..., n
p(A i ∩ A j ∩ A k ) = p(A i )p(A j )p(A k ), ∀i ≠ j ≠ k
M
n n
P( I A i ) = ∏ P( A i )
i =1 i =1
p(A∩B)=0; P(A∩B)=P(A)P(B)
⇒P(A)P(B)=0 ⇒ P(A)=0 or P(B)=0
If A & B are disjoint, then
1. A & B are not independent, or
2. A or B, at most of one of them, has zero probability
Summary:
A & B disjoint, If A occurs, we expect B won't occur.
A & B independent, if occurrence of one does not change the
chance of occurrence of the other one.
Pair-wise Independence:
Events Ai’s, i=1,2,…,n are pair-wise independent iff
P(Ai ∩ Aj )=P(Ai)P(Aj), for all i≠j
Independence ⇒ Pair-wise Independence
Independence ⇐ Pair-wise Independence
May show that P(A1A2A3)=P(A1)P(A2)P(A3) does not imply
P(Ai Aj )= P(Ai)P(Aj), i≠j, i,j=1,2,3 and vice versa.
Example 22: Consider a superficial four sided die in which face f1,
f2, f3 are brown, black, and gray. The fourth face can be
interpreted as f1, f2, f3, because it is a mixed color with brown,
black and gray.
Now, the events B = {a side with black shows up},
Br = {a side with brown shows up},
Gr = {a side with gray shows up}
0 6
P (A ) = P (B ) = P (C ) = 1 & P (A ∩ B ∩ C ) = 1
3 9
P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ∩ C ) = P (B ∩ C ) = 1
9
1
p(EF | G ) = p( F | EG ) p( EG ), p( EG ) = p(E | G ) p(G ) = ;
1
424 3 N
1
prob. of the highest number in the {1,2,..., y - 1}
N
p( F | EG ) = ∑
y = q +1 draws actually being in the {1,2,..., q} draws =
N length({1,2,..., q}) N q
∑ = ∑
y = q +1 length({1,2,..., q}) y = q +1 y − 1
Second Modeling:
Let Y be the draw containing the best number.
Fq (q′) − the first number drawn in the first q′ draws
occurs in the group of the first draws. Noting that p(F; q′ ≤ q ) = 1.
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Examples (cont’d) 39
n = q +1 n = q +1
q N −1 1
∑ p (Fq (n − 1) | Y = n )p(Y = n ) =
N 1 N q
∑ = ∑
n = q +1 N n=q +1 n − 1 N n=q n
q N − 1 qC q N − 1
So, p(H ) ≈ ln + ≈ ln , for big N.
N q N N q
* dp(H )
The best choice for q, q , is obtained =0⇒
dq
− ( N − 1)
1 N −1 q q2 N −1 N −1
ln + = 0 ⇒ ln = 1 ⇒ q* =
N q N N −1 q e
q
and the maximum probability of a correct decision becomes
N −1 N −1
*
p = ln e = e −1 , for big N.
Ne N −1
P*
No. of boxes
ECEN 4503, Probability & Random Signals T. Menhaj
4 Examples (cont’d) 44
e s tim a te d n a tu ra l lo g a rith m b a s e , e
4.5
4 e=2.718
3.5
Imperical 3
Estimation 2.5
of “e” 2
1.5
0.5
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
N
No. of Boxes
• So,
( )
p(B3 ∩ B 2 ∩ B1 ) = p B3 B 2 ∩ B1 p(B 2 ∩ B1 ) =
= 1× p(B1 ) =
2
• Chance of getting3the key by switching get doubled.
• Generalization: for n boxes the chance of getting the key
by switching becomes:
p( E ) = p (B j B i ∩ B m ; j ≠ i, m ∈ {1,.., n}) p(B i ) =
1 1 n −1 1
= × 1 − = >
n − 2 n n (n − 2 ) n
note : Bi − chosen first , Bm − next opened
• Chance of finding the key becomes higher by switching.
F ig u re 1 :Th e p ro b a b ility o f c h o o s in g th e k e y in c a s e o f k e e p in g
0.5
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Diffe re n t n u m b e r o f tria ls
0.9
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Diffe re n t n u m b e r o f tria ls
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Diffe re n t n u m b e r o f tria ls