repeated trials

1. On the average, 30% of the vehicles on the southbound approach to an intersection

turn right.
What is the probability that none of the next 10 “arrivals” turn right?
Solution:
Define “trial” as a southbound approaching vehicle
Define “success” as a right turning vehicle
n = 10 “trials”
x = 0 “successes”
p = 0.3 = P(success)
P(0)=P(x=0)= 10!/0!(10-0)! 0.300.710-0 =0.710= 0.0282

2. On a ten question multiple choice test, with 4 options per question, the probability of
getting 5 and only 5 answers correct if the answers are guessed can be calculated like
so:
p = 0.25
q = 1 − p = 0.75
k=5
n = 10

Therefore if somebody guesses 10 answers on a multiple choice test with 4 options,

they have about a 5.8% chance of getting 5 and only 5 correct answers. If 5 or more
correct answers are needed to pass, then the probability of passing can be calculated by
adding the probability of getting 5 (and only 5) answers correct, 6 (and only 6) answers
correct, and so on up to 10 answers correct. This total probability is approximately 7.8%

3. On the average, 30% of the vehicles on the southbound approach to an intersection

turn right.
What is the probability that none of the next 10 “arrivals” turn right?
Solution:
Define “trial” as a southbound approaching vehicle
Define “success” as a right turning vehicle
n = 10 “trials”
x = 0 “successes”
p = 0.3 = P(success)
P(0)=P(x=0)= 10!/0!(10-0)! 0.300.710-0 =0.710= 0.0282

4. Determine the probability that, in 6 tosses of a coin, there will be exactly 4 heads.
Solution
q = 0.5, p = 0.5, n = 6, r = 4.
6C4.(0.5)2.(0.5)4 =( 6!/2!4!)(1/4)(1/16) =15/64

5. Determine the probability of obtaining the most probable number of heads in 6 tosses
of a coin.
Solution
The most probable number of heads is given by ½ x 6 =3
The probability of obtaining exactly 3 heads is given by
6C3.(0.5)3(0.5)3 = (6! /3!3!) (1/8)(1/8)=20/24 = 0.31
6.Determine the probability of obtaining exactly 2 fives in 7 throws of a die. q=5/6 p=
1/6 n=7 r =2 Hence, the required probability is given by

7C2=(5/6)5(1/6)2 = (7!/5!2!)(5/6)5(1/6)2 =0.234

7. Determine the probability of throwing at most 2 sixes in 6 throws of a die.

Solution
The phrase “at most 2 sixes” means exactly 0, or exactly 1, or exactly 2. Hence, we
add together the first three terms in the expansion of (q + p)6,where q=5/6 ,p= 1/6
It may be shown that (q + p)6 =q6+ 6q5p + 15q4p2+....
and, by substituting for q and p, the sum of the first three terms turns out to be

(21875)/(23328)=0.938

8. A 10-question multiple choice exam is given, and each question has

five possible answers. Pasxal takes this exam and guesses at every
question. Use the binomial probability formula to find the probability
(to 5 decimal places) that

A) he gets exactly 2 questions correct;

sol'n = 10, p = 1/5, q = 4/5, r = 2

P(2) = C(10,2) x (1/5)^2 x (4/5)^8 = 0.3019899

9. Determining P (x=3) ,given n=4 and p =0.1 . If the likelihood of a tagged order form is
0.1.What is the probability that there are 3 tagged order forms in the sample of 4 ?
P (x=3) = ( 4!/ 3!(4 -3) !) x (0.1) (1 – 0.1)
=4(0.1) (0.1) (0.1) = 0.0036

10. Determining P (x <3), given n=4 and p =0.1. . If the likelihood of a tagged order
form is 0.1, What is the probability that there are fewer than 3 tagged order forms in the
sample of four? P (x <3)= P(x=0) + P(x=1) + P(x=2)

P(x=0) = ( 4!/0!(4-0)!) (0.1) (1-0.1) =0.6561

P(x=1) = ( 4!/1!(4-1)!) (0.1) (1-0.1) =0.2916

P(x=2) = ( 4!/2!(4-2)!) (0.1) (1-0.1) = 0.0486

P (x <3) = 1- P (x > 3)

= 1- 0.0037 = 0.9963