Issue Date: 30/09/2011

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Report Date: 30/09/2011

Introduction
Welcome to the new Live Rice Index Report produced by Jackson Son & Co (London) Ltd. This report will be published weekly and will include market commentary and our weekly price assessments. We are also developing a new website that will be available soon. We expect it to become a valuable resource for up to date information and historical data, catering to all sectors of the industry from farmers to the point of sale. All our price assessments will be determined in line with the LRI Methodology with particular attention to those that we have chosen to be benchmarks, marked with this symbol: B For more information on our benchmarks and assessment principles please refer to our methodology statement available on our new web site: www.livericeindex.com

We want to encourage you to take an active role in the price assessment process and help us to ensure that the price assessments become increasingly accurate and robust. Have your say. Dont be left out. You can call us or email us with the information that you would like us to take into account. We will continue to develop our list of price assessments and our methodology, listening carefully to the participants in the rice industry in order to keep them relevant to the international rice market. Updates will be published in our report and on our website. We hope that this will become a useful and reliable resource for the industry.

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Live Rice Index

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE
100% Grade B 5% Broken 10% Broken
B B

Report Date: 30/09/2011

CHANGE 5 5 5 5 5 0 CHANGE -15 -15 -15 -15 CHANGE 5 0 0 25 CHANGE -40 -140 0 CHANGE 13 10 10 5 15 CHANGE -10 0

PRICE $620 $600 $595 $590 $560 $490 PRICE $610 $600 $605 $595 PRICE $1,090 n/a $540 $950 PRICE $885 $985 $790 PRICE $568 $560 $545 $510 $465 PRICE $680 n/a

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

IRRI-6 5% Broken IRRI-6 10% Broken IRRI-6 15% Broken IRRI-6 25% Broken 386 2% Broken Broken Rice
B

CHANGE -5 -5 0 0 0 -15 CHANGE -10 -5 0 CHANGE -10 -10 CHANGE -5 -5 CHANGE 0 0 CHANGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRICE $480 $475 $470 $440 n/a $400 PRICE $495 $480 n/a PRICE n/a n/a $1,020 $1,035 PRICE $480 $435 n/a n/a n/a PRICE $470 n/a PRICE $1,060 $950 $950 $940 $900 $825 $1,120 $960

U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE

U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice

CHANGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CHANGE 0 0 CHANGE 0 0 -10 -10 CHANGE -10 10 CHANGE 10

PRICE $660 $633 $600 $710 $375 $390 $350 PRICE $790 $490 PRICE $560 $560 $575 $440 PRICE $610 $610 PRICE n/a n/a n/a n/a $450

15% Broken 25% Broken A1 Super Broken

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX Parboiled Milled Rice 100% Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX Parboiled Milled Rice 5%
B

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 15% Broken STX IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken

U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE

U.S. #1, 4% Broken U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield

PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B
B

385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2%

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE (FOB FCL)

Uruguayan 5% Broken Argentine 5% Broken Brazilian 5% Broken Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens)

INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

IR 64 5% Broken IR 64 25% Broken PR 106 5% Broken PR 106 25% Broken 1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) White Glutinous Broken Rice A1

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE (FOB FCL)

Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

5% Broken 10% Broken 15% Broken 25% Broken Broken Rice
B

INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX

EGYPT - WHITE RICE

INDIA - BASMATI RICE

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old

Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2%

Medium Grain #2 6% Broken Medium Grain #3 12% Broken Round Grain #2 6% Broken Round Grain #3 12% Broken Broken Rice Grade 0

= INDICATES BENCHMARK

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Thailand
The Indonesian tender at the beginning of the week was supportive for prices but when Bulog have not confirmed any purchases from Thailand, Thai white rice prices returned to a level closer to that at which they ended the previous week. Thai offers in the Indonesian tender were between US $653 - $680 PMT basis CFR. White rice prices remain high, with farmers in no rush to sell as they prefer to wait and receive a better price from the Government once their rice buying scheme gets underway. Thai 100% Grade B has settled at US $620 PMT FOB, with 5% broken white rice standing at US $600 PMT. Fragrant prices are also firm and increases have been seen in Pathumthani and Hom Mali varieties. Pathumthani is now offered at US $950 and rising on account of recent flood losses and Hom Mali is offered at US $1,090 PMT. Prices for glutinous rice have softened this week to US $885 PMT for 10% broken. Parboiled prices are softer on account of the competition faced from other exporting origins. Experts are suggesting that the rice pledging scheme could potentially end up costing the Thai Government a staggering Baht 400 billion in the first year alone. The scheme is one of the most controversial of the new Governments implemented policies and threatens to effectively price the country out of the rice market for the time being. The country has reduced its forecast for output from this years main harvest by 2.4% following the flooding which damaged areas of farmland. Production is now expected to reach 24.5 million MTS paddy, compared to an earlier prediction of 25.1 million MTS.

Report Date: 30/09/2011

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

100% Grade B 5% Broken 10% Broken
B B

CHANGE 5 5 5 5 5 0 CHANGE -15 -15 -15 -15 CHANGE 5 0 0 25 CHANGE -40 -140 0

PRICE $620 $600 $595 $590 $560 $490 PRICE $610 $600 $605 $595 PRICE $1,090 n/a $540 $950 PRICE $885 $985 $790

Export Statistics:
Unofficial Thai rice exports from the 12th of September to the 18th of September 2011 were 176,227 MTS, excluding fragrant rice. Exports of white and glutinous rice from 1st of January to the 18th of September 2011 totalled 8,610,872 MTS. This is an increase of 51.6% from the same period last year. Source: Thai Rice Exporters.

15% Broken 25% Broken A1 Super Broken

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

Parboiled Milled Rice 100% STX Parboiled Milled Rice 100% Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX Parboiled Milled Rice 5%
B

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE

Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B New Hom Mali White Rice 100% Grade B Old Hom Mali White Rice A1 Super Pathumthani Fragrant 100% Grade B
B

THAILAND - LONG GRAIN GLUTINOUS RICE

White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken White Glutinous Rice 10% Broken (Sanpathong) White Glutinous Broken Rice A1

CURRENCY 1 USD $ INVERSE

THB 31.08 0.032

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Vietnam
Vietnamese prices are rising steadily, with 5% broken white rice being quoted at US $568 PMT on an FOB basis and 25% broken standing at US $510 PMT. Substantial quantities of 15% broken have been shipped recently to Cuba, Russia, Bangladesh and East Timor as well as Indonesia, who purchased 400,000 MTS of 15% white rice. This has tightened the availabilty of broken rice. Four Vietnamese companies made offers to Bulog for a total of 120,000 MTS at US $606 PMT; however purchases are yet to take place. Fragrant rice is slightly softer this week, offered at US $680 PMT basis FOB. Recent reports have suggested that there there is a danger that Vietnam could lose approximately 300,000 hectares of its rice fields in the next decade to urbanisation if a Government plan is approved by the countrys National Assembly in October. The news is a major concern for a nation in which 70% of its population earns a living in agriculture.

Pakistan
The recent floods have caused a lot of timing issues and uncertainty for millers and exporters. The crop in lower Sindh has suffered significant losses of about 300,000 MTS of paddy this years floods with almost all of the rice grown in Badin has been completely wiped out. Recently, further rains have caused damage to the crops that are still standing in the fields. Whilst these losses should be offset by strong production in upper Sindh and the Punjab region, for the time being the effect of these losses is being felt in the market. The harvest in upper Sindh is not set to commence until mid-October and arrivals from Punjab have been slowed by the adverse weather. In lower Sindh, most of the harvested rice, which has survived the floods, needs to be dried out before it is suitable for milling and ultimately export. Aside from the inevitably high moisture content, the quality of the crop is very encouraging with early reports suggesting good colouration and low damage to kernels.
IRRI-6 5% Broken IRRI-6 10% Broken IRRI-6 15% Broken IRRI-6 25% Broken 386 2% Broken Broken Rice

Report Date: 30/09/2011

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

B

CHANGE -5 -5 0 0 0 -15 CHANGE -10 -5 0 CHANGE -10 -10

PRICE $480 $475 $470 $440 n/a $400 PRICE $495 $480 n/a PRICE n/a n/a $1,020 $1,035

PAKISTAN - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX IRRI-6 Parboiled Milled Rice 15% Broken STX IRRI-9 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken

Export Statistics:
From the 1st of January to the 22nd of September 2011, Vietnam shipped 5.670 million MTS. Shipments from the 1st of September to the 22nd of September 2011 reached 352,581 MTS. Source: VFA

PAKISTAN - BASMATI RICE

385 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% D-98 Long Grain White Basmati Rice 2% Super Kernel White Basmati Rice 2% Super Kernel Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2%

CURRENCY 1 USD $ INVERSE

5% Broken 10% Broken 15% Broken 25% Broken Broken Rice

VND 20,830.00 0.000048

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

B

CHANGE 13 10 10 5 15 CHANGE -10 0

PRICE $568 $560 $545 $510 $465 PRICE $680 n/a

VIETNAM - LONG GRAIN FRAGRANT RICE

Fragrant Rice 5% Broken New Fragrant Rice 5% Broken Old

Export Statistics:

Pakistans Non-Basmati rice exports from the 19th of September to to the 25th of September amounted to 18,832 MTS, worth US $9,348,896. Exports of Basmati rice for the same period totalled 19,129 MTS worth US $17,885,430.

Consequently, obtaining rice for export is proving problematic which has some exporters quoting FOB prices for IRRI-6 5% white rice at and above the US $500 PMT level. Those that do have the better quality rice in their hands are pricing the market closer to US $480, maintaining competitive levels with their neighbours in India. Demand for exports is coming from traditional markets in the Middle East and East Africa. 25% broken white rice is now offered at levels of around US $440 PMT and 100% broken rice is priced at US $400 PMT on an FOB basis.

CURRENCY 1 USD $ INVERSE

PKR 87.37 0.0114

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USA
The market in the South remains firm, supported by strong domestic demand and export sales of milled and paddy rice to traditional destinations such as Haiti, El Salvador and Mexico. The recent Iraqi tender was unsuccessful for U.S. rice as the Iraqi Grain Board purchased 30,000 MTS of long grain white rice from India. In the domestic market, a change in program requirements for the Kansas City Commodity Office has meant that the recent tender for 3,800 MTS of #2/7 parboiled long grain milled rice has been cancelled, at least for now. sas but there are growing concerns for the late planted rice, which is still maturing in the fields as the cold weather approaches.

Report Date: 30/09/2011

U.S.A. - GULF LONG GRAIN RICE

U.S. #2, 4% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #3, 15% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #5, 20% Broken, Hard Milled U.S. #1, Parboiled Milled 4% Broken U.S. #2, Paddy, 55/70 Yield (ex-spout) Southern Flour Quality Broken Rice Southern Pet Food Quality Broken Rice

CHANGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CHANGE 0 0

PRICE $660 $633 $600 $710 $375 $390 $350 PRICE $790 $490

In California, the harvest is gaining momentum and early reports of yields are positive. As the harvest of this large crop progresses, it is certainly softening the tone of the market. The USDA has estimated a crop size of 588,000 acres and strong yields could see a total production of just below 2.5 million MTS. In addition to the new crop, there are a number of bearish factors for the coming year in the international market, such as strong anticipated crops in Australia, Egypt The harvest is all but finished in Louisiana and Southern Europe. With only 6% of the and Texas and Louisiana has recorded crop harvested so far, the mills are yet to record rice yields, averaging 6,400 pounds release their pricing for the new crop. For per acre, far surpassing the previous record the time being the paddy market is very of 6,300 pounds per acre. The challenges quiet and the undertone of the market is that the crop has faced this year make this soft. In terms of new milled business, South record even more impressive as farmers had Korea has announced another tender to buy to deal with saltwater intrusion and hot, 10,000 MTS of U.S. #1 medium grain rice and dry weather. The good field yields should 2,747 MTS of U.S. #3 medium grain rice. go some way to offsetting the lost acreage because only 413,000 acres were planted in Louisiana this year as opposed to 530,000 acres in 2010, although the milling yields of the later harvested rice have dropped significantly. The harvest is progressing well enough in Mississippi, Missouri and Arkan-

U.S.A - CALIFORNIAN MEDIUM GRAIN RICE

U.S. #1, 4% Broken U.S. #1 Paddy, 58/69 Yield

Export Statistics:
For the period September 16th - 22nd, Net sales of 32,900 MTS were up from the previous week. Major buyers were: Mexico El Salvador Japan Canada Saudi Arabia 7,700 MTS 6,300 MTS 5,500 MTS 2,900 MTS 3,000 MTS.

Exports for the same period reached 23,600 MTS and were mainly to: Guatemala Mexico Canada El Salvador Jordan Source: USDA
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4,900 MTS 4,000 MTS 2,900 MTS 2,800 MTS 2,600 MTS

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South America
The Mercosur countries are expected to export a combined estimate 3 million MTS this year, with the Brazilian Government this week announcing plans to subsidise the growth of an additional 3.7 million MTS of paddy for export as well as animal feed. All South American particpants missed out in the recent Iraqi tender (see page 08 for further details) so the market is a little softer. FOB prices for milled long grain 5% broken white rice stand at US $560 PMT for Argentine and Uruguayan varieties and US $575 PMT for Brazilian. Parboiled prices have softened in Brazil on account of the competition that they now face from India. Peru particularly have significantly increased their imports this year, with figures of white rice coming into the country between the months of March and August reaching 100,000 MTS, an increase of 300% in comparison to the same period last year. The majority of these have come from Uruguay, although only 56% has come from there this year compared to a 95% market share in 2010. Average prices of the Uruguayan exports were valued at approximately US $570 PMT on a FOB basis.

India
CHANGE 0 0 -10 -10 CHANGE -10 10 PRICE $560 $560 $575 $440 PRICE $610 $610

Report Date: 30/09/2011

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE (FOB FCL)

Uruguayan 5% Broken Argentine 5% Broken Brazilian 5% Broken Brazilian Broken Rice (1/2 Grain Brokens)

S. AMERICA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE (FOB FCL)

Brazilian Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX Uruguayan Parboiled Milled Rice 5% Broken STX

CURRENCY 1 USD $

BRL 1.841

ARS 4.201

UYU 19.75

In India, IR 64 5% broken white rice is presently priced at US $480 PMT on an FOB basis and IR 64 25% broken white rice is offered at US $435 PMT. Exporters are struggling to get their hands on good quality IR 64 5% broken white rice and it is not until the new crop arrives in midOctober that we will see exports of higher quality rice really pick up. The harvest of this years crop is set to be a bumper one, with around 102 million MTS of paddy anticipated. This will increase the quality available within rice stocks, but also serve to exacerbate the Governments storage problems. IR 64 parboiled rice is priced at the competitive level of US $470 PMT basis FOB, which should attract potential buyers away from other origins. Many farmers within the state of Andhra Pradesh have reportedly had to leave part of their rice-growing land fallow this year because of an unviable minimum support price currently available to them. Escalating production costs as well as a shortage of labour has been stated to be reasons for the farmers decision, with a large number of labourers needed during the paddy transplantation especially. Some rice growers are already switching to horticultural crops which are not so labour intensive, however this has not been possible for wet land owners within the Konaseema and Karamchedu regions whose land is only suitable for the production of paddy.

INDIA - LONG GRAIN WHITE RICE

IR 64 5% Broken IR 64 25% Broken PR 106 5% Broken PR 106 25% Broken 1001 / PANT 4 25% Broken

CHANGE -5 -5 CHANGE 0 0 CHANGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

PRICE $480 $435 n/a n/a n/a PRICE $470 n/a PRICE $1,060 $950 $950 $940 $900 $825 $1,120 $960

INDIA - LONG GRAIN PARBOILED RICE

IR 64 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX PR 106 Parboiled Milled Rice 5% STX

INDIA - BASMATI RICE

Reports from Ecuador suggest that 80,000 MTS of rice has been stored by the Government for two years at an estimated value of US $40 million. The Minister of Agriculture, Staynley Vera, has indicated that the rice needs to be sold very soon in order to free up storage space and create revenue to produce the next harvest. A presentation in Buenos Aires this week outlined the strategic plans of the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fishing for the next decade. The plans aim to increase grain production to more than 160 million MTS annually, which would represent a growth of 60%.

Traditional White Basmati Rice 2% Traditional Brown Basmati Rice 2% Traditional Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% Pusa White Basmati Rice 2% Pusa Brown Basmati Rice 2% Pusa Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2% 1121 White Basmati Rice 2% 1121 Parboiled Milled Basmati Rice 2%

CURRENCY 1 USD $ INVERSE

INR 47.47 0.0211

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The Rest Of The World

The Philippines
The Philippines rice harvest is expected to grow in the third quarter of the year in comparison the same period last year. Farmers harvested 7.57 million MTS of paddy in the first half of 2011, representing a 14.4% increase from the 6.62 million MTS that was achieved in 2010. The countrys winter rice crop is anticipated to be approximately 20% bigger this year than last, with 3.1 million MTS paddy basis expected to be harvested. The country is ambitiously aiming for its 2012 imports to not exceed 500,000 MTS as it continues to maximise local production output.

Report Date: 30/09/2011

Ghana
In order to promote the consumption and patronage of locally produced rice, the National Food Company (NAFCO) is to invest in the purchase of modern rice mills with the intention of maximising local production. NAFCO is reportedly working closely with the Ghanaian Government to boost the consumption of locally produced rice within the country. The Government is to distribute the locally produced rice for use in schools as it has a higher nutritional value than that of imported rice.

Europe
The high temperatures, low rains and warm nights that have been seen all over Europe during September have been very favourable to the European rice crop. Harvesting has begun in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal and Bulgaria but on average only 20% has so far been cut. New varieties of Indica crop are surprisingly being harvested at the same time as the Japonica ones, despite having a shorter maturity time. Prices for paddy lie between 280 300 PMT for Round grain as well as Indica. Japonica varieties range between 330 - 350 PMT, excluding Risotto types.

Cambodia
The Cambodian Governments intention to increase exports could be thwarted after farmers indicated that they could raise their prices after the Thai rice-pledging scheme begins. There are currently no restrictions on exporting paddy to Thailand or Vietnam and border trade is very common. Certainly, at the moment, paddy is in thin supply but this situation will change when the new harvest arrives in mid-October. Then, millers and exporters will essentially have to compete with the Thai Government for paddy.

Japan
Japanese Government officials have said that they will be carrying out radiation tests on a wider geographical area following the discovery of the first case of radioactive rice, found near Nihonmatsu city, 56 kilometres northwest of the Fukushima nuclear plant. The rice had a radioactive caesium level of 500 Becquerels per kilogram, which is more than twice the 200 Becquerels per kilogram accepted by the countrys Government. Radiation inspection areas will now be expanded to 300 different areas. The highest level of radiation that had been found previously in the rice crop was 136 Becquerels per kilogram.

Indonesia
Bulog held a tender on 26th inviting offers of up to 100,000 MTS of Thai and Vietnamese 5% white rice, with a maximum of 30,000 MTS Vietnamese and 70,000 MTS Thai per offer valid for 7 days. Offers were received from Vietnam at US $606PMT and Thailand ranging from US $653PMT to about US $680PMT. Although nothing have been awarded we understand that Bulog have rejected the offers from Thailand for being too high and as a reaction to their confirmation that the Thai Public Warehouse Organisation (PWO) will not be delivering against their contract for 300,000MTS of 15% broken at a price of about US $560PMT C&F shipment through September to December. Perhaps we should not be surprised that Bulog have now indicated that they may be open to future imports from India and Pakistan, having overcome their initial reluctance which was based on concerns of reliability. An Indian delegation is expected in Jakarta next week. Page 08

Iraq
The Grain Board of Iraq this week purchased approximately 30,000 MTS of long grain milled 5% broken white rice from India, priced at around US $571 PMT basis CFR. This was following the tender that the country issued on the 18th of September.
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Report Date: 30/09/2011

Offering A Grain Of Truth...

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