S8 Marcel Suri (GeoModel Solar) - Bankable Solar Resource Assessment and Risk Management

Bankable solar resource assessment and risk management in planning and operation of Solar Energy Projects
Marcel Suri, PhD GeoModel Solar s.r.o., Bratislava, Slovakia marcel.suri@geomodel.eu http://solargis.info http://geomodelsolar.eu
Workshop Workshop for Solar Energy and Smart Grid Development 13-15 September 2011, The Gateway Hotel, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, Ind 15 India
[1]
About GeoModel Solar

Expert consultancy: Solar resource assessment and PV yield prediction Performance characterization Country optimization potential European Commission Grid integration studies PVGIS 2001-2008 SolarGIS: Real-time solar and meteo data services for: time Site selection and prefeasibility Planning and project design Monitoring and forecasting of solar power Solar data infrastructure http://geomodelsolar.eu http://solargis.info
SolarGIS from 2008
Workshop Workshop for Solar Energy and Smart Grid European Photovoltaics Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, 5 September 2011, Hamburg 15 India Ind [2] 26th Development 13-15 September 2011, The Gateway Hotel, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, 5-9
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International collaboration
International Energy Agency, Solar Heating and Cooling Program: Task 36 Solar Resource Knowledge Management Task 46 Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting EU COST Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies EU project Management and Exploitation of Solar Resource Knowledge (finished) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL, US) SUNY (US) DLR (DE) Fraunhofer ISE (DE) Stellenbosch University (ZA) University of Geneva (CH) European Commission JRC (IT) CENER (ES) SUPSI ISAAC (CH)
[3]
Uncertainty in solar resource assessment

Solar resource estimate High quality ground measurements of solar radiation missing Diverse results from the existing databases Poor understanding of the potential of the modern satellite-derived data Weather interannual variability Long and continuous record of data is needed (10+ years) Changing weather (natural and human induced and extreme events induced) (e.g. volcanoes) to be considered In the recent history In the future
Bankable data = low uncertainty, high reliability
[4]
Solar resource requirements for solar projects

Data available at any location Long-climate record (10 years minimum) Cleaned, validated, harmonized and without gaps High accuracy, low uncertainty (no systematic errors, good representation) High level of detail (temporal, spatial) Modern data products (time series, TMY, long long-term averages) Standardized data formats Real-time data supply: historical monitoring nowcasting forecasting
All this is possible with satellite-based data, supported by high-quality ground measurements!
+ Meteo and other geodata for energy modeling (temperature, wind, humidity)
Workshop Workshop for Solar Energy and Smart Grid Development 13-15 September 2011, The Gateway Hotel, Jodhpur, Rajasthan, Ind 15 India [5]
Solar resource how to obtain site site-specific information

Ground instruments (interpolation/extrapolation) Satellite-based solar data (solar radiation models & atmospheric data)
WRDC network (~1200 archive stations) sources: NASA, EUMETSAT, Stoffel et al. 2010
[6]
sources: NREL, WRDC
Available solar databases - Gujarat
GHI >10% more for DNI!
The databases differ in many aspects: Input data (satellite/ground) Applied methods/models Time coverage (period) Time and spatial resolutions
[7]
Ground instruments
ADVANTAGES High accuracy at the point of measurement High frequency measurements (sec. to min.) High-quality data THIS APPLIES ONLY IN THE CONTROLLED AND RIGORIUSLY MANAGED CONDITIONS
LIMITATIONS Historical data: Limited time of measurement Limited number of sites Unknown accuracy (in historical data) Different periods of measurement Operation of a ground station: Regular maintenance and calibration Data management Issues of aggregation statistics High costs for acquisition and operation
source: Gueymard 2010AWI
Extrapolation/interpolation ignores site-specific info
[8]
Uncertainty in ground observations

Issues Sensors accuracy Installation and maintenance routines Cleaning of the sensor Calibration Time shifts, shading Needed procedures Data post-processing Quality checking (only high-frequency data!) Filling the gaps in the measurements
Missing data results in skewed aggregation statistics (e.g. daily and monthly sums) High probability of systematic deviation (BIAS) and occurrence of extreme values Uncleaned data result in unreliable values
[9]
Solar radiation models: satellite satellite-derived data

ADVANTAGES Available everywhere (continuous coverage) Spatial resolution from 3 km Frequency of measurements from 15 minutes Spatial and temporal consistency High calibration stability Availability ~99.5% History of up to 20 years Continuous geographical coverage (global) LIMITATIONS Lower instantaneous accuracy for the point estimate (when compared to high quality ground measurements)
Data sources: EUMETSAT, ECMWF Source: SolarGIS

Uncertainty in satellite-derived DNI and GHI derived

Highest uncertainty
Clouds
DNI GHI 0 to 100% 0 to 80%
Aerosols
10% (up to 50%) 2 to 3% (up to 12%)
Water vapour
3 to 4% 0.5 to 1%
Terrain
100% 60 to 80%
Terrain Atmosperic Optical Depth
Water vapour Clouds
[11]
Uncertainty of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Kanpur
AERONET MACC GEMS
Critical for DNI
MACC model compared to ground measured AERONET data
[12]
Typical uncertainty of ground-measured vs. satellite measured satellite-derived solar data

GHI
ISO Classification WMO Classification Hourly uncertainty Daily uncertainty High Quality 3% 2% Thermopile pyranometer Secondary Standard First Class Good Quality 8% 5% Second Class Mod. Quality 20% 10% RMSD 9-20% 4-12% Bias 2-7% Satellite
bias depends on the calibration and maintenance
DNI
WMO Classification Hourly uncertainty Daily uncertainty
Thermopile pyrheliometer High quality 0.7% 0.5% Good quality 1.5% 1.0%
RSR
Satellite RMSD Bias 4-12%
2-4% 1.5%
24-60% 15-25%
Bias: It is natural for satellite-derived data and can be reduced/removed For ground-measured data it is very challenging and costly to keep bias close to 0
[13]

GHI
DNI
RSR
2-4% 1.5%
24-60% 15-25%
GHI: satellite already competitive in RMSD with good-quality sensors


GHI
DNI
RSR
2-4% 1.5%
24-35% 15-25%
DNI: It is very challenging to keep high standard of DNI ground measurements Satellite data can be correlated with ground measurements to obtain improved site solar statistics
[15]
Quality checking of ground measurements using SolarGIS
Four stations compared in Germany and Netherlands Calibration issue identified (Ineichen 2011)
[16]
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Accuracy and representativeness: Distribution of values SolarGIS
Comparison of distributon of DNI clearness index: measured (yellow) satellite-derived (blue)
Proper distribution statistics plays key role in energy simulation
Source: IEA SHC Task 36 data inter-comparison activity, Pierre Ineichen, University of Geneva, February 2011: http://www.unige.ch/cuepe/pub/ineichen_valid-sat-2011-report .pd
Ground-measured vs. satellite-derived
Source: SolarGIS
Distance to the nearest meteo stations interpolation gives only approximate estimate
Resolution of the input data used in the SolarGIS model:

AOD: Atmospheric Optical Depth WV: Water Vapour MFG/MSG: Meteosat First/Second Generation
[18]
SUMMARY: Ground vs. satellite satellite-based solar data
Solar data are site specific High variability and intermittency
Ground data are not able to represent geographical and time diversity of solar climate It is important to use high-quality satellite combined with ground data
Annual DNI average in India source: SolarGIS
[19]
Interannual variability: Northwest India
Interannual variability is driven by: Natural climate cycles Change of aerosols (human factor) Climate change (long-term trends) Occasional large volcanic eruptions
Assuming years 1999-2010: GHI: DNI: Average 2035 1764 Minimum 1964 (-4.5%) 1621 (-8.1%)
[20]
Site adaptation of satellite-based time series based is needed for LARGE PROJECTS
Ground measurements available for a short time period (few months, 1 years) 1-2 They are correlated with time series of satellite satellite-derived irradiance to: Correct systematic errors (reduce bias) Match data frequency distribution
[21]
Site adaptation of satellite-based time series based

Example: Tamanrasset (Algeria)
Original DNI ground satellite data scatterplot: Bias: -4.2%
Correction of bias and frequency distribution
Modern high-resolution satellite-based solar models offer solar resource based information at high detail and quality New ground measurements will help to reduce uncertainty
Summary: uncertainty in solar resource data

Ground data Important for validation, and site-adaptation of the satellite adaptation satellite-derived data (reference data) Only quality sensors and properly managed measurement campaign It is challenging to achieve high quality and continuity of measurements
Satellite-based data Global coverage, high frequency high detail High temporal and spatial resolution Harmonized, radiometricaly stable, no gaps Continuous history of 12+ years in India
To reduce uncertainty, combine ground measurements with satellite data
[23]
How to reduce risk?

Is the solar resource prediction for 20 years right?
Only high quality data averaging bad numbers cannot yield in a good assessment Robust and long history for interannual variability Average does not say much go for annual and monthly P(50), P(75) and P(90) Analytics of possible issues (shading, aerosols, mountains, coastal zone, desert geography, etc.) Only solar resource experts
Is the solar power plant performing as expected?

Use recent high quality and continuous measurements Cross-validated (sat-ground) data Site-adapted data Compare solar resource to validated performance data
[24]
SolarGIS: online system for solar energy and PV

Access to SolarGIS historical and real-time data (automatic and interactive) time Maps and prospecting tools PV planning and optimization PV monitoring & performance assessment PV forecasting
http://solargis.info
[25]
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Thank you for your attention!
Marcel Suri, PhD. GeoModel Solar s.r.o., Bratislava Slovakia marcel.suri@geomodel.eu http://solargis.info http://gemodelsolar.eu
DNI (SolarGIS)
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S8 Marcel Suri (GeoModel Solar) - Bankable Solar Resource Assessment and Risk Management

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S8 Marcel Suri (GeoModel Solar) - Bankable Solar Resource Assessment and Risk Management

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Bankable solar resource assessment and risk management in planning and operation of Solar Energy Projects

About GeoModel Solar

SolarGIS from 2008

Uncertainty in solar resource assessment

Bankable data = low uncertainty, high reliability

Solar resource requirements for solar projects

Solar resource how to obtain site site-specific information

sources: NREL, WRDC

Available solar databases - Gujarat

GHI >10% more for DNI!

source: Gueymard 2010AWI

Extrapolation/interpolation ignores site-specific info

Uncertainty in ground observations

Solar radiation models: satellite satellite-derived data

Data sources: EUMETSAT, ECMWF Source: SolarGIS

Uncertainty in satellite-derived DNI and GHI derived

Terrain Atmosperic Optical Depth

Water vapour Clouds

Uncertainty of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Kanpur

AERONET MACC GEMS

Critical for DNI

MACC model compared to ground measured AERONET data

Typical uncertainty of ground-measured vs. satellite measured satellite-derived solar data

bias depends on the calibration and maintenance

Satellite RMSD Bias 4-12%

Typical uncertainty of ground-measured vs. satellite measured satellite-derived solar data

bias depends on the calibration and maintenance

Satellite RMSD Bias 4-12%

GHI: satellite already competitive in RMSD with good-quality sensors

Typical uncertainty of ground-measured vs. satellite measured satellite-derived solar data

bias depends on the calibration and maintenance

Satellite RMSD Bias 4-12%

Quality checking of ground measurements using SolarGIS

Accuracy and representativeness: Distribution of values SolarGIS

Comparison of distributon of DNI clearness index: measured (yellow) satellite-derived (blue)

Proper distribution statistics plays key role in energy simulation

Ground-measured vs. satellite-derived

Resolution of the input data used in the SolarGIS model:

SUMMARY: Ground vs. satellite satellite-based solar data

Solar data are site specific High variability and intermittency

Annual DNI average in India source: SolarGIS

Interannual variability: Northwest India

Site adaptation of satellite-based time series based

Original DNI ground satellite data scatterplot: Bias: -4.2%

Correction of bias and frequency distribution

Summary: uncertainty in solar resource data

To reduce uncertainty, combine ground measurements with satellite data

How to reduce risk?

Is the solar power plant performing as expected?

SolarGIS: online system for solar energy and PV

Thank you for your attention!

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