Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan Theme of Article

Following Article analyze the effect of climate change on Agriculture sector of Pakistan. Because of time and resources shortage not all corps can be studied, thats why Article have considered the Rabi season for study, and takes into consideration 3 major corps Wheat, Rice and Maize. Analyzing the period of 1987-2004, article has also highlighted the developments in the Agriculture sector, and article also shows how these developments have minimized the adverse effect of climate change. According to a study by LEAD Climate Change Action Plan of Pakistan, estimated losses from this climate change can be 4-5 billion dollars. The main agriculture crop throughout Pakistan is Wheat with an approximate share of 60-80% in cropped area, next comes Rice and then Maize. Punjab area is best suited for Wheat production, Sindh & Baluchistan for Rice and NWFP for Maize. Author has used the Neo-Classical growth model to analyze the food crop output of Pakistan. According to this model output per hectare is assumed to be a function of, fertilizer used per hectare, credits devoted to the Agriculture sector, irrigation (no. of Private and Public tube wells per hectare), labor force per hectare, no. of tractors used per hectare, average of temperature during Rabi season, Average monthly rainfall in mm during Rabi season and a drought variable. After a careful analysis of data between 1987-2004 effect of different variables was found to be: Variable Coefficient Variable Coefficient

Fertilizer 2206.158 Credits for Agri. 1163.072 Public Tube wells -10.082 Private Tube wells 5.862 Labor Force -134.712 Tractors 3958.439 Temperature -43.917 Rain 1.558 Drought -89.795 WFCY 1209.419 These findings indicate that a one unit increase in Fertilizer, Credits for Agriculture, in no. Private Tube wells, Tractors, Rain will increase the output by 2206 kg, 1163 kg, 5.8 kg, 3958 kg, and 1.56 kg respectively. Whereas a unit increases in Temperature, Labor

Force, Public Tube wells and Drought will decrease the output by 43 kg, 134 kg, 10 kg, and 89 kg respectively. The avg. temperature of Sindh, Baluchistan, and Punjab has increased but on the other hand decrease in temperature in NWFP has been observed. So to deal with the adverse effect of temperature Agriculture sector should increase the use of Tractors, Fertilizers, Private Tube wells, and Govt. should take steps to provide better access of Credits to Agriculture sector.

My opinion
Agriculture Sector also includes Live Stock, Fishery and Forestry. But the authors have not considered these portions in their study. Articles suggest that increasing the number of Private Tube wells per hectare will increase the Production, but it does not consider the issue of decrease in underground water levels. So increasing the no. of tube wells will speed up the decreasing water level, which can be harmful not only for farmers but for the general public as well.

Critical Analysis
Author has just considered Temperature and Rainfall in his study, just two variable of climate change, and these two do not fully explain the effect of climate change. Climate change includes others variable also for e.g. Floods, Glacier melting because of Global warming, reduction in the ozone layer, climate pollution due to increase in carbon level etc. Article does not highlights the issue that increasing the fertilizer amount used, pollutes the underground stock of water, and fertilizer grown crops have some side effects, which can harm human health. Author is just focusing on ends not the means.

Conclusion
To me, Article just studies the effect of Temperature and amount of Rainfall on Agriculture output. It does not fully study the effect of Climate change, which is a much broader phenomenon.

Determinants of FDI in CPS of Pakistan Theme of Article

This Article examines which factors affect the Foreign Direct Investment in Commodity Producing Sector of Pakistan. Article highlights the importance of FDI for developing countries in its introductory section, and has proved that FDI to be the backbone for a developing country like Pakistan. For this reason Govt. of Pakistan has offered tax exemptions and many other incentives to foreign investors and to encourage them Govt. has introduced Equal Investment Opportunity for home and host countries. Article has studied the past data of FDI in Pakistan and it showed that Pakistan have received a total of $5409.8 million of FDI during fiscal year 2007-08, which is 5.27% higher than FY 2006-07 and 53.64% higher than FY 2005-06. Past data also indicates that during recent years Service sector have taken the lead in attracting more FDI than CPS of Pakistan. Article studies the affect of Gross Domestic Product, Real Growth rate of GPD in Commodity Producing sector, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Degree of Trade Openness, and per Capita Income on Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan. By collecting the data from sample period 1996Q1 -2008Q4 Correlation and Regression analysis have been conducted between FDI and above mentioned variables. And variables are found to be positively or directly related with FDI.

My Opinion
New trade policy of Pakistan is good, can be useful for attracting foreign investors, but CPS cannot be beneficial for these foreign investors until Govt. controls the problems of electricity shortfall and security problems. CPS sector especially Agriculture sector is badly affected by floods, and irrigation problems and experiencing negative growth excluding livestock if I was a investor, I would never invest in such bad situation.

Critical Analysis
CPS of Pakistan is facing some serious problems such as Electricity and Power shortages, Floods and security issues. According to a study by LEAD Climate Change Action Plan of Pakistan, estimated losses from the climate change can be 4-5 billion dollars. Devastating floods have deducted about 2 percentage points from the GDP growth. . The floods made massive damage of $10 billion on countrys economic structure. Some 20 million people were displaced as more than 50,000 Sq. Km area was covered in water. Large-scale manufacturing remained victim of power outages and lower domestic demand, engineering product, steel product, electronic, non-metallic minerals, petroleum products (Pakistan Economic Survey 2011). As reported, an area of 2.364 million hectares under Kharif Crops 2010 was damaged by Floods (SUPARCO).

Conclusion
After reading article and conducting the literature review, conclusion can be drawn that despite of sound trade Policy, improvements need to be made in Infrastructure, security issues need to be resolved and specially Energy sector to attract FDI.