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Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 15731580 www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Modelling of electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste system: The case of Dhaka city
M.A. Suana, B.K. Balab,
b a Beximco Synthetics Ltd., Kabirpur, Savar, Dhaka 1344, Bangladesh Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Received 6 October 2004; accepted 27 July 2005 Available online 17 October 2005

Abstract This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict population growth, solid waste production, electricity generation from solid waste and percentage of total electricity demand supplied from the solid waste of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated solid waste generation in Dhaka agrees well with values reported by the Dhaka City Corporation. Simulated results show that population, solid waste generation and electricity generation potential from solid waste all increase with time, but percentage of total electricity demand supplied from solid waste decreases with time. However, MSW could still supply a signicant portion of the electricity demand of Dhaka. Adoption of policy for electricity recovery from urban solid waste should be dictated by the economic adoption of the technology for electricity generation from the waste and the environmental implications. The model can be used for analysing electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste management. r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Municipal solid waste; Energy recovery; Electricity generation; System dynamics; Modelling; Simulation

1. Introduction Solid waste consists of the highly heterogeneous mass of discarded materials from the urban community as well as the more homogeneous accumulation of agricultural, industrial and mining wastes. The principal sources of solid wastes are residences, commercial establishments, institutions and industrial and agricultural activities. Domestic
Corresponding author. Tel.: +880 91 55518; fax: +880 91 55810.

E-mail addresses: bkbalabau@yahoo.com, bkbala@bttb.net.bd (B.K. Bala). 0960-1481/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2005.07.012

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and commercial wastes are often considered together as urban wastes. The main constituents of urban solid wastes are similar throughout the world, but the volume of waste generated, the density and proportion of constituents vary widely from country to country, and from town to town within a country according to the level of economic development, geographic location, weather and social conditions. In general, it has been found that as the personal income rises, kitchen wastes decline but paper, metals and glass wastes increase; the total waste generated rises but density of the wastes declines [1]. Several disposal methods are being used in various parts of the world and the most prominent of these are open dumping for which the low-lying areas and outskirts (Jatrabari, Maniknagar, Matuail, etc.) of the city are used, sanitary land lling, incineration and composting. But in Dhaka, an average of 4000 tonnes per day of municipal solid waste is generated and 50% of it is collected and then open-dumped outside Dhaka creating a major environmental pollution. The city corporation can look at an integrated approach as an alternative to the concept of dumping the wastes. This integrated approach should not only consider the environment but also generation of electricity from the municipal solid waste. The solid waste has a heating value of 6.0 MJ/kg, about one-third the heating value of coal; but unlike coal, it has a very low sulphur content. The electrical energy from heat energy recovery from an incineration plant involves burning of solid wastes at high (815980 1C) temperatures [2]. If incineration is to become an economical method for solid waste disposal, useful material and energy must be recovered by the process. Heat can be recovered by putting a waste heat boiler or some other heat recovery device on an existing solid waste incinerator. The heat so recovered can be utilized for generating electricity or for space heating purpose. In Bangladesh, regular analysis of the refuse is not carried out by the municipalities. Analysed solid waste constituents of Dhaka by weight percentage are shown in Table 1. On average, constituents are 18% inorganic matter and 82% organic matter [3]. Density of solid waste of Dhaka is 0.35 tonne/m3 [4]. Kothari [5] emphasized the urgent need to have a national programme especially in developing countries like India and Bangladesh on energy recovery from urban, municipal
Table 1 Solid waste constituents of Dhaka by weight percentage Constituent Reported in [3] Residential (weight %) Plastic Paper Glass Metal Textile Food stuff and kitchen Food waste Wood/grass Ash/soil Other Total 1.74 5.68 }6.38 1.83 84.37 100.00 Industrial (weight %) 1.48 7.22 }10.22 1.59 79.49 100.00 Reported in [4] (Weight %) 2.3 10.0 1.4 0.5 18.0 2.1 40.0 25.0 99.3

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and industrial wastes. More research and development should be encouraged to develop an appropriate technology for power generation from municipal waste with the main objective to create conducive conditions and environment to help develop, demonstrate and disseminate the utilization of waste for recovery of energy and resources. This would go a long way in helping to alleviate poverty in third world countries. Of course, the choice of technology would depend upon techno-economic viability at each specic site/location and the available physical and nancial resources. Alam and Bole [6] analysed the electrical energy recovery potential from the urban solid waste of Dhaka and its economic feasibility. They emphasized that the 1.28 million tonnes of municipal waste generated in Dhaka could supply fuel for about 72 MW electricity. If it is not economically viable in the context of only electricity production, the optimum energy utilization and environmental implications should also be considered. Islam and Saifullah [7] conducted a study for the Rajshahi City Corporation to measure the amount of municipal solid wastes and bagasse, and the amount of energy that could be harnessed from both for cooking as well as for power generation. Possible electrical energy production from waste was found to be approximately 119.8 MW h per day and from bagasse 544 MW h per day for 56 days during the sugar cane harvesting season. Kathirvale et al. [8] made a simple evaluation of the electrical energy from municipal solid waste in Kualumpur, Malaysia, and estimated energy potential from an incineration plant operating at 1500 tonnes solid waste per day to be 640 kW. The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste to predict the solid waste generation capacity, electrical energy recovery and fraction of electricity that could be supplied from the solid waste of Dhaka. 2. System dynamics modelling Electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste has to address several interdependent issues such as public health, electricity generation potential and present and future costs to society. The electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste system is a complex, dynamic and multi-faceted problem depending not only on available technology but also on economic and social factors. Experimentation with an existing system containing economic, social, technological, environmental and political elements may be costly and time consuming or totally unrealistic. Substituting electrical energy recovery by a computer model, a series of experiments can be conducted. Computer models are of great value to understand the dynamics of such complex systems [9]. Owing to the intrinsically complex nature of electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste problems, it is necessary to implement electrical energy recovery only after careful analyses. Different modelling techniques available are optimization, econometrics, inputoutput analysis, multiobjective analysis and system dynamics simulation. The system dynamics methodology developed by Forrester [10] is the most appropriate technique to analyse such a system because it provides a foundation for constructing computer models to do what the human mind cannot dorationally analyse the structure, the interactions and mode of behaviour of complex socio-economic, technological and environmental systems. A detailed description of the methodology is given by Forrester [10,11] and Bala [9,12]. It has been used in many areas including global environmental sustainability [11,13], environmental

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sustainability in agricultural development project [14], modelling strategies for promoting agricultural development [15], regional sustainable development issues [16,17], environmental management [18,19] and ecological modelling [20]. The two basic building blocks in system dynamics studies are stock (level) and ow (rate). The ow diagram of electrical energy recovery from an urban solid waste system is shown in Fig. 1. Stock variables (symbolized by rectangles in Fig. 1) are state variables and represent accumulation in the system, e.g., population level and public pressure. Flow variables (symbolized by valves in hydraulic systems in Fig. 1) are the rate of change in the stock variables and represent the activities and decision function in the system. For example, growth rate in the population stock and waste generation rate in uncleared nonrecycling stock represent ow variables. Converters (represented by circles) are intermediate variables used for miscellaneous calculations. Finally, connectors (represented by simple arrows) represent cause-and-effect links within the model structure [9]. The original computer model was developed as a research on modelling of waste management and was constructed using STELLA Research software [21] designed for dynamic feedback modelling of complex systems. Full details are available in Ref. [22]. The model described here is a theoretical framework for examining urban solid waste generation system in Dhaka and also to assess electrical energy generation potential. It was assumed that the population of Dhaka increases with time due to population growth and migration into the city. This is modelled by a simple positive feedback system model. Waste generation increases with increase of population and GDP as well as per capita income. There is a large gap between the volume of waste generation and its management system which results in environmental pollution. In Dhaka, the normal practice is that householders put their solid wastes at different collecting points in the street. The Dhaka City Corporations personnel collect the wastes at specied times and transport it to a land disposal site. The disposal method is not more than only open dumping in an unhygienic manner. The Dhaka City Corporation does not carry out any sanitary landll, incineration, composting or recycling process. A portion of the recyclable solid waste is used in recycling industries (plastics, paper, glass, metals), but this amount is very small and done informally. Both the uncollected waste and the unhygienic disposal of waste create environmental pollution, which increases public annoyance. Hence, public concern develops for the reduction of waste generation and the source separation of recyclable waste. Public concern was modelled as a stock variable. Electricity generation potential was computed using a similar technique as used by Alam and Bole [6] and Islam and Saifullah [7], and the electrical energy generation potential increased with increase of urban solid waste. On the other hand, the composite index showed the lack of waste collection (uncleared waste). A higher composite index increases management perception which increases fund allocation for urban solid waste management. Although the Dhaka City Corporation has neither an electricity generation plant from urban solid waste nor any scientic disposal facility, a model to project electrical energy generation potential from urban solid waste was included. 3. Results and discussions Various ways of validating a system dynamics model have been considered such as comparing the model results with historical data, checking whether the model generates

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Fig. 1. STELLA ow diagram of the system dynamics model of electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste.

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plausible behaviour and checking the quality of parameter values. Some of the parameters were derived from studies in other areas and some were the result of expert guesswork. To judge the plausibility of the model, the behaviour of the key variables in the base run were examined. Computer projections of population and solid waste generation for Dhaka are shown in Fig. 2. The population increases from a base year (1995) population of 4 375 700 to 12 082 600 in 2025 and the solid waste generation inreases from 1 026 800 tonnes in 1995 to 4 257 100 tonnes in 2025. Simulated solid waste generation agreed well with values reported [3,4] by the Dhaka City Corporation. Simulated results showed that the population and solid waste generation capacity of Dhaka increased with time. Solid waste generation capacity increased due to increasing population growth and increasing per capita waste generation with time as the average per capita income increased. Simulated electrical energy generation potential and percentage of total electricity demand supplied by solid waste of Dhaka over 30 years starting from 1995 are shown in Fig. 3. Electrical energy generation potential increases from 456 900 MW h in 1995 to 1 894 400 MW h in 2025 and it agrees well with reported values [6]. Electrical energy generation potential increases with time because of increasing solid waste generation. Simulated percentage of total electricity demand supplied by solid waste decreases from 146% to 79%. This is mainly due to the fact that the demand for electricity is increasing at a rate faster than the rate of increase of electrical energy generation potential. However, the electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste generation of Dhaka can supply a signicant portion of the electricity demand. Adoption of a policy for electricity recovery from urban solid waste should be dictated by the economic and environmental implications.

Fig. 2. Simulated changes in population and solid waste generation capacity in Dhaka over a time horizon of 30 years.

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Fig. 3. Simulated electrical energy generation capacity and percentage of total electricity demand supplied by solid waste in Dhaka over a time horizon of 30 years.

4. Conclusions Population, solid waste and electrical energy potential from solid waste for Dhaka are increasing with time. Electrical energy generation potential increases from 456 900 MW h in 1995 to 1 894 400 MW h in 2025. In 1995, 146% of electrical energy demand could have been supplied by solid waste and this decreases to 79% in 2025. Thus, it does still supply a signicant portion of the electrical energy demand and gives high returns on energy with low environmental impact. Adoption of a policy for electricity recovery from urban solid waste of Dhaka should be dictated by the economies and environmental implications. This model can be used as a model to analyse electrical energy recovery from urban solid waste management policy analysis elsewhere. References
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