The Solow Model

Prof. Lutz Hendricks

September 17, 2009

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The Solow Model: Motivation

In the production model capital is exogenous. We learn how much capital matters, but we cannot learn why some countries lack capital. We need a model with capital accumulation (investment, saving). That also answers the question: Does capital drive long-run growth?

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The Model
We add just one piece to the production model:
an equation that describes how capital is accumulated over time through saving.

Time is discrete: t = 1, 2, 3, ... Production function (cf Production model): Yt = F (Kt , Lt ) = AKt L1 t

(1)

Resource constraint (cf National Income Accounting): Yt = Ct + It + Gt + NXt (2)

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The Model

The new piece: Capital accumulation obeys Kt +1 = Kt + It dKt (3)

Or Kt

= Kt + 1 Kt = I dKt

(4) (5)

d is the depreciation rate (7% to 10% in the data).

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A capital accumulation example

Capital accumulation runs out of steam - with constant It the growth of K slows down.

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Choices
People make two fundamental choices (in macro!):
1 2

How much to save / consume. How much to work.

Work: we assume L is xed. Consumption / saving: We assume that people save a xed fraction of income: Ct = (1 s ) Yt (6) Equivalently: It = sYt (7)

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Model Summary

The rental prices of K and L are the same as in the production model (w and r ).

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Solving the model

Even this simple model cannot be "solved" algebraically. That is, we cannot write the endogenous variables as functions of the parameters. This is almost never possible in dynamic models.
Dynamic means: there are many time periods. All interesting macro models are dynamic.

What we can do is
1 2

graph the model and trace out qualitatively what happens over time. solve the model for the long-run values of the endogenous variables (e.g. Kt as t ! ).

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The Solow Diagram

We condense the model into a single equation in K . It will be a dynamic equation that tells us Kt +1 as a function of Kt . Then we graph the equation.

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The Solow Diagram

Start from Kt +1 = It + (1 Substitute in It Yt d ) Kt (8)

= sYt = AKt L1 t

to get Kt +1 = s AKt L1 t or Kt = s AKt L1 t

+ (1

d ) Kt dKt

(9) (10)

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The Solow Diagram

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Steady state

Denition
A steady state is an equilibrium in which all (per capita) variables are constant over time. Figure 5.1 shows:
1

The Solow model has exactly one steady state K

Actually: K = 0 is another steady state, which we ignore.

2 3

The economy converges to the steady state for any initial K0 . For the economy to grow, it must be on the transition path to the steady state.

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Steady state

Why does the economy settle in a steady state instead of growing forever? The reason is diminishing returns to capital in production. Recall K = sY dK . Save a constant amount each period (constant I = sY ). It contributes less and less to output (falling marginal product of K falling Y ). It adds the same amount to depreciation.

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Steady state

Why does the economy settle in a steady state instead of growing forever? The reason is diminishing returns to capital in production. Recall K = sY dK . Save a constant amount each period (constant I = sY ). It contributes less and less to output (falling marginal product of K falling Y ). It adds the same amount to depreciation. Note: this is not quite right!
With constant s we have rising I over time. And if K falls over time, so does the additional depreciation.

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The dynamics of output and consumption

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Solving for the steady state

Set Kt = 0 to obtain sY = s AK L1

= dK

(11)

or with 1/ (1

1/(1 k = K /L = [s A/d ]

(12)

) = 3/2.

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Solving for the steady state

Steady state output: y

= Y /L = A (K /L) /(1 = A [s A/d ] = [s/d ]

/(1 )

(13) (14)
)

(15) (16)

1/(1 )

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Reality check
A key prediction of the model: sY = dK or K /Y = s/d. Countries with higher saving rates have higher capital output ratios.

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Why does Y/L dier across countries?

Our static production model answered: K /L and A dier: y = A k (17)

The Solow model gives a similar answer: s and A dier: y = A1/(1

)

[s/d ]/(1

(18)

This is the same answer in disguise: higher s means higher K /L.

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Why does Y/L dier across countries?

But the answer is quantitatively dierent:

Production model: Double A ! double y . ! raise y by 21 /(1 Solow model: Double A
)

= 23 /2 = 2.8.

In the Solow model, the contribution of A to output gaps is larger why? Draw a picture...

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How important is K/L for cross-country Y/L gaps?

Our previous answer was: K /L accounts for a factor near 4. In the Solow model: yUS ypoor AUS poor A 32 = 16 2
3/2 1/2

sUS spoor

(19) (20)

Why factor 2 for saving rates? Because s (or K /Y ) diers by a factor near 4.

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How important is K/L for cross-country Y/L gaps?

This is a central and robust result: Capital accumulation accounts for only a small fraction of cross-country income gaps.

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Long-run Growth

There is no long-run growth in the Solow model. The reason is diminishing returns to capital. This is perhaps the central lesson from the model:

Fact
Capital accumulation is not a source of long-run economic growth. How does this square with the fact that politicians always talk about promoting growth through investment?

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Shocking the model

We want to understand how the economy responds to changes in certain parameters. This is useful for understanding short-term growth experiences of countries. We will come back to that when we talk about business cycles, too.

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Higher investment rate

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Higher investment rate

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Higher investment rate

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Higher investment rate

Reality check

The model says: more investment (or lower consumption) generates a period of faster growth. Isn everybody saying: the U.S. is in a recession (slow growth) t because consumption is too low? How does the contradiction get resolved? Where is the eect of lower consumption demand in the Solow model? Where is the demand side anyway?

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Higher depreciation rate

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Higher depreciation rate

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Higher depreciation rate

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The Principle of Transition Dynamics

Fact
In the Solow model, the farther away the economy is from its steady state, the faster it grows (or shrinks) Why is this true? Look at the examples of rising s or rising d - the growth rate of Y rises / falls over time. But we should derive this algebraically ...

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The Principle of Transition Dynamics

Proof

The claim: the growth rate of K (Kt /Kt ) increases with the gap between current and steady state capital (K /Kt ). Proof: The law of motion for K is Kt Yt =s Kt Kt Sub in the production function: Kt = s AK Kt
1 1

(21)

(22)

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The Principle of Transition Dynamics

Proof

Sub in K = (K /K ) K : Kt = s A (K /K ) Kt
1

(K )

L1

(23)

Everything on the RHS (incl. K ) just depends on parameters, except for K /K . Plot that ...

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Empirical Evidence

Countries that were poorer in 1960 grew faster after 1960. We could do the same with K /L instead of Y /L on the horizontal axis.
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Empirical Evidence

Should we conclude that transitional growth explains cross-country dierences in output growth? No! Figure 5.8 only shows OECD countries - mostly rich Western European countries + North America.

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Empirical Evidence

In a broader set of countries, those that are poor initially do not grow faster.
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Empirical Evidence

But gure 5.9 is the wrong experiment! The Solow model does not say: "poor countries grow faster" It says: "countries that are poor relative to their steady states grow faster." That is true in the data. Figure 5.9 tells us: much of the growth since 1960 is not of the transitional dynamics type - not explained by the Solow model.

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Convergence Clubs?

One hypothesis one often reads:

Countries that share similar "fundamentals" (e.g. OECD countries) converge to similar steady states. For them the principle of transition dynamics explains post-war growth. Other countries have dierent fundamentals, so the poorer ones need not grow faster.

This is the wrong explanation for post-war growth.

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Convergence Clubs?
The Solow model makes a quantitative prediction about growth rates. If you work out the numbers, countries should converge fairly quickly to their steady states (perhaps within 20 years). Then they all should grow at almost the same rates.

Fact
The Solow model cannot explain why countries grow at dierent rates for long periods of time. Post-war growth may look like Solow convergence to a common steady state, but it is not. Post-war growth is driven by growth in TFP, not by growth in K /L.

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Exercise
Take a spreadsheet. Fix parameters at plausible empirical values: = 1/3, d = 0.08, s = 0.2. Compute the steady state. Fix K0 at some multiple of K . Compute the transition path for Kt by iterating over Kt +1 = sYt + (1 d ) Kt . Plot the growth rate of Yt against time.
You should see that growth is very high initially, if K0 is small. But growth slows dramatically very quickly.

Now plot the growth rate of Yt against over 40 years against initial Yt - this is the model analogue of gure 5.8.
You should see that the model relationship is much atter than the data relationship. The model fails to explain large variation in 40 year average growth rates.
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Simulating the Solow Model

Example: Start an economy from 1/10th of steady state k .

0.11 0.1 0.09 0.08
Y/ L growth

0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 20 40 60 Year 80 100 120 140

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Simulating the Solow Model

Growth varies less with y /y than in the data.
0.04

0.035
Avg growth over 35 years

0.03

0.025

0.02

0.015 0.4

0.5

0.6 0.7 0.8 Y/L relative to steady state

0.9

This suggests that part of growth is not transitional in the data.

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Simulating the Solow Model

Speed of convergence

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 20 40 60 Year 80 100 120 140 K/KSS Y/YSS

Convergence is too fast. In the data, the "half-life" is about 30 years 10 years in the model. Convergence is even faster when the saving rate is endogenous.
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Did we just invalidate the Principle of Transition Dynamics?

No, we did not. Countries grows faster when their capital stocks are low. But this does not account for the observed dierences in long-run (40 year) growth rates across countries. It does account for growth rates at business cycle frequencies (we come back to that later).

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The Tigers

There are a few countries that sustained growth by capital accumulation for a long period of time. How? It cannot work with a constant saving rate s - the Solow model shows this. Such countries must have saving rates that rise over time. Examples are: South Korea, Singapore, Hong-Kong.

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The Tigers

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Exercise: Rising saving rate

Simulate the Solow model with a saving rate that rises from 10% to 40% (Singapore). Start the model in steady state: K0 = K . Show that the growth rate of y stays positive for a long time. You could now compare that growth path with data for Singapore and convice yourself that a large share of Singapore spectacular s growth since 1960 is indeed due to capital accumulation (as shown by Alwyn Young).

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Exercise: The Saving Rate Depends on Income

Consider an alternative version of the Solow model. The saving rate depends on income. What happens?

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Conclusion: Is the Solow Model Useful?

As a model of growth or large cross-country income dierences, the model is a failure. But its failure contains important insights:
1 2

Capital does not drive growth. Capital does not drive large fractions of cross-country income gaps.

Both ndings are surprising - and often not understood in the policy debate.

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Conclusion: Is the Solow Model Useful?

But the main signicance of the Solow model itself is as a building block for macro models. We always have to keep track of how capital is accumulated. A Solow block is therefore part of virtually every model. The same logic extends to other accumulated factors: human capital, knowledge capital, organization capital. The Solow transition dynamics is an important piece for understanding business cycle dynamics.

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Reading

Jones, Macroeconomics, ch. 5.

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